4/1/2011
2.2. PHN TCH T S TI CHNHNgi trnh by: L T Minh Tn
NI DUNG4/1/2011
Cc nhm t s ch yu Phn tch Du Pont Quy trnh phn tch t s Hn ch ch
yu ca phn tch t s Vn ca ROE Phn tnh nh tnh
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
2
1
4/1/2011
CC T S C HNH THNH NTN?4/1/2011
So snh gi tr mt ch tiu trn bo co ti chnh vi ch tiu khc Trn cng
mt bo co Gia cc bo co
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
3
C CC NHM T S CH YU NO?4/1/2011
T s nh gi kh nng thanh ton T s nh gi kh nng qun l ti sn T s nh
gi kh nng qun l n T s nh gi kh nng sinh li T s gi tr th trng
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
4
2
4/1/2011
T S KH NNG THANH TON4/1/2011
ngha:
y l nhm ch tiu c s dng nh gi kh nng p ng cc khon n ngn hn ca
doanh nghip. Kh nng hon chuyn thnh tin ca cc ti sn, kh nng to tin
thanh ton cc khon n ngn hn T s kh nng thanh ton hin hnh T s kh nng
thanh ton nhanh T s kh nng thanh bng tin T s lu chuyn thun hot ng
kinh doanh/n ngn hn
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Gm:
5
KH NNG THANH TON HIN HNH
RTH
=
Ti sn ngn hn N ngn hn
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha: Mt ng n ngn hn c m bo bng bao nhiu ng ti sn ngn hn Phng
php phn tch t s: so snh (bng, th) Cho bit iu g?
Gi tr t s < 1? Gi tr ca t s ny gim? Gi tr t s ny cao?6
3
4/1/2011
KH NNG THANH TON HIN HNH4/1/2011
Trng hp qu cao?
Kh nng sinh li
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Bao nhiu l hp l?
1, 5 2,2 ?
T s ny phn nh chnh xc kh nng thanh khon?
Hng tn kho7
KH NNG THANH TON NHANH4/1/2011
RTN
=
Ti sn ngn hn Hng tn kho N ngn hn
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha: Mt ng n ngn hn c m bo bng bao nhiu ng ti sn ngn hn m khng
phi bn hng tn kho Phng php phn tch? Cho bit iu g?
Gi tr ca t s ny gim? Gi tr t s ny cao? Trng hp qu cao?
8
4
4/1/2011
KH NNG THANH TON NHANH4/1/2011
Bao nhiu l hp l ? Ti sao hng tn kho c tnh lng km hn tin v khi
thu?
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Tnh lng: thi gian v chi ph chuyn i thnh tin Chu k kinh doanh
T s ny c phn nh chnh xc kh nng thanh ton nhanh khng?
N phi thu kh i TSL km lng hn hng tn kho9
KH NNG THANH TON BNG TIN4/1/2011
RTT
=
Tin v tng ng tin N ngn hn
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Tin? Tng ng tin? ngha: nh gi kh nng thanh ton nu n n hn ngay lp
tc Tng gim do nguyn nhn no? Qu cao c tt khng?
10
5
4/1/2011
T S KH NNG THANH TON4/1/2011
S dng ch tiu lu chuyn tin t
RTLC
=
Lu chuyn tin t HKD nm N N ngn hn nm N -1
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha:Kh nng to tin t hot ng kinh doanh thanh ton cc khon n ngn
hn >1
Bao nhiu th c th coi l tt?
Qu cao c tt khng?11
T S HOT NG4/1/2011
Cc t s hot ng c s dng nh gi hiu qu s dng ti sn ca doanh nghip.
Quan tm: hiu qu s dng tng ti sn v hiu qu s dng ca tng b phn cu thnh
tng ti sn ca doanh nghip. Ch tiu doanh thu thng c s dng ch yu trong
tnh ton cc ch s ny
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Hot ng: s dng ti sn Doanh thu Doanh thu khng i, t ti sn hn Cng 1
lng ti sn, doanh thu ln hn12
6
4/1/2011
C NHNG T S NO4/1/2011
Vng quay tng ti sn Vng quay ti sn c nh Vng quay khon phi thu
& K thu tin bnh qun Vng quay hng tn kho & K lu kho trung
bnh
13
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
VNG QUAY TNG TI SN
Cng thc?
VTS = ?
4/1/2011
Doanh thu (DT), tng DT, hay DT thun? Tng ti sn hay tng ti sn bnh
qun? ngha:
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Hiu qu: bao nhiu ng DT/1 ng vn Tc quay vng vn
Cao l tt? (TSC, hng tn kho, KPThu) Ti sao gim? Ti sao thp?
(ngnh, TS) Nu gim, lm th no ci thin? kho st b phn
14
7
4/1/2011
VNG QUAY TI SN C NH
Cng thc?
VC = ?4/1/2011
Tng doanh thu? Doanh thu hay Doanh thu thun? Gi tr rng hay nguyn
gi? TSC u k, cui k hay bnh qun? Ch tiu no trn bng cn i k ton? Hiu
qu: bao nhiu ng DT/1 ng vn vo TSC Tc quay vng vn
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha:
Ti sao tng, gim? Cao l tt? (TSC)
Ti sao thp? (ngnh, cha phn nh gim gi tr, TS tha)15
Nu thp, gim, lm th no ci thin?
VNG QUAY HNG TN KHO4/1/2011
Cng thc? VTK = ?
Doanh thu hay gi vn hng bn Hng tn kho hay tn kho bnh qun? c lng
s ln hng tn kho c bn trong k
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha:
Thp l xu? Cao l tt? Ti sao thp? (ngnh, cha phn nh gim gi tr, thi
im nghin cu, thi v) Ti sao gim? Nu thp, gim, lm th no ci thin?
16
8
4/1/2011
K LU KHO TRUNG BNH4/1/2011
Cng thc?
KTK = ?
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
360 hay 365? ngha:
Thi gian trung bnh hng lu gi kho, n v gi bn, nm trong khu sn
xut
Ngn l tt? Qu ngn? Cc yu t khc:
Tng t vng quay hng tn kho17
VNG QUAY KHON PHI THU4/1/2011
Cng thc?
VPT = ?
Doanh thu hay doanh thu bn chu? Khon phi thu no? Khon phi thu
cui k hay bnh qun? Tc chuyn i cc khon phi thu thnh tin mt
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha:
Thp l xu? Cao l tt? Ti sao thp? (c im ngnh, chnh sch bn chu, cng
tc thu tin) Ti sao gim?
ch quan: chnh sch bn chu, cha phn nh gim khch quan: khch hng
18
9
4/1/2011
K THU TIN BNH QUN4/1/2011
Cng thc? ngha:
KTT = ?
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Bnh qun mt t bn chu, t khi bn hng xong n khi thu tin mt bao nhiu
ngy?
Di l tt? Ngn l xu? So snh vi?
Qu kh: improved? Trung bnh ngnh: postion? i th cnh tranh: more
generous credit policy? Thi hn bn chu t ra: consistent?19
Lm th no rt ngn? (Chit khu, thu tin)
K lu kho, k thu tin, k tr tin c phn nh kh nng thanh ton n ngn hn
khng?4/1/2011
Nhp hng
Bn hng
Nhn tin
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Thi gian tn kho
K thu tin
K tr tin Chu k tin mt Tr tin cho nh cung cp
20
10
4/1/2011
TR LI
Chu k kinh doanh (Operating cycle):
4/1/2011
Thi gian t khi u t tin vo hng tn kho cho n khi thu c tin v. OC =
K tn kho + K thu tin Chu k kinh doanh cng di tc chuyn ha ti sn thnh
tin cng thp
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Chu k tin mt (Cash conversion cycle or Net operating cycle or
Working capital cycle):
Thi gian t khi tr tin cho nh cung cp n khi thu c tin CCC = K tn
kho + K thu tin K tr tin Chu k tin mt cng di nhu cu v thanh khon
(tin) cng ln.
21
T S KH NNG CN I VN4/1/2011
C cu vn:
Tng n/Tng ti sn (H s n) Tng n/Vn ch s hu Tng ti sn/Vn ch s hu (s
nhn vn ch s hu)
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
T s kh nng thanh ton li vay Kh nng thanh ton chi ph c nh
22
11
4/1/2011
H S N4/1/2011
Cng thc? HN = ? Tng ti sn hay tng ngun vn? ngha:
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
% ngun ti tr = NChnh sch ti chnh Hiu qu kinh doanh Kh nng tip cn
ngun ti tr
T s ny ph thuc vo?
T s ny cao l xu? T s ny thp l tt?23
T S KH NNG THANH TON LI VAY4/1/2011
Cng thc:KNLV =
EBIT I Thng tin u? ngha:
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Mc thu nhp c th m bo thanh ton li Chnh sch ti chnh Hiu qu kinh
doanh
T s ny ph thuc vo?
T s ny cao l tt?24
12
4/1/2011
T S KH NNG THANH TON CHI PHC NH4/1/2011
Cng thc:=
KNC
EBITDA + Thanh ton tin thu Li vay + N gc/(1-T) + Thanh ton tin
thu
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha:
Kh nng thanh ton cc chi ph c nh bng cc ngun thu nhp
S liu? C loi chi ph c nh no khc?
25
T S V KH NNG SINH LI4/1/2011
T sut li nhun thun trn doanh thu T sut li nhun rng trn tng ti sn
T sut li nhun rng trn vn ch s hu
26
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
13
4/1/2011
T SUT LI NHUNCng thc: ngha nh gi?
DOANH THU
(ROS)4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Cao v tng trng Thp?Li nhun thp, gim Bin ng chi ph, qun l chi ph
Qun l chi ph
Nguyn nhn thp v gim?
Lm th no ci thin?27
T SUT LI NHUNCng thc: ngha nh gi?
RNG TNG TS
(ROA)4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Cao v tng trng Thp? Li nhun thp, gim Ti sn cao, tng Phn tch Du
Pont vi ROA
Nguyn nhn thp v gim?
Lm th no ci thin?28
14
4/1/2011
T SUT LI NHUNCng thc: ngha
RNG VN CSH
(ROE)4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Li nhun sau thu/1 ng vn ch s hu Quan h vi gi c phiu Cao v tng
trng Thp? Phn tch Dupont Phn tch Du Pont
nh gi?
Nguyn nhn thp v gim?
Lm th no ci thin?29
VN CA ROE
Vn thi gian:
4/1/2011
Qu kh Khng phn nh c tc ng y ca quyt nh nh hng n tng lai Ri ro
kinh doanh Ri ro ti chnh Gi tr s sch ROE cao khng ng ngha vi sut
sinh li cho cc c ng
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Vn ri ro:
Vn gi tr:
c thm: Qun tr Ti chnh Nguyn Tn Bnh trang 85 - 90
30
15
4/1/2011
mu s ca cc cng thc tnh ROE, ROA nn s dng ch tiu: u k? Cui k? Bnh
qun?
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
t s ca cc cng thc tnh ROS, ROA, ROE, ngoi li nhun rng, c th dng
cc ch tiu li nhun khc khng?
31
T L HON VN (ROI)4/1/2011
Cng thc:ROI =
Li nhun trc thu v li vay Tng vn bnh qun
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
ngha:
L ch tiu phn nh hiu qu s dng vn khch quan nht khng ph thuc vo
chnh sch ti tr cng nh thu thu nhp doanh nghip. C s nh gi s ng gp ca
cng ty trong vic s dng vn to ra li nhun cho nn kinh t C s ch s hu
nh gi tc ng ca n by ti chnh v ra quyt nh huy ng vn.
32
16
4/1/2011
CC T S C NG QUAN TM4/1/2011
Li trn c phiu - EPS C tc trn c phiu - DPS T l chi tr c tc TCT =
DPS/EPS T l li nhun gi li TGL = 1 - TCT Tc tng trng bn vng g = ROE
x TGL
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
c thm:
Chng 6 - Ti liu tham kho chnh thc Chng IV: Qun tr tng trng sch
Qun tr Ti chnh Nguyn Tn Bnh trang 85 - 9033
NHM T S GI TR TH TRNG4/1/2011
Gi th trng/gi tr s sch MV/BVGi th trng/thu nhp mi c - P/E
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
L g? Tnh ton nh th no? C ngha ra sao trong hot ng u t? Dao ng mc
no?
Gi th trng/gi tr lu chuyn tin rng t hot ng kinh doanh mi c phiu
P/CFS Gi tr th trng/C tc mi c phiu P/DPS34
17
4/1/2011
TNH TON T S GI/THU NHP, GI/LC TIN, V GI TH TRNG/GI S SCH.P/E =
Price / Earnings per share = $12.17 / $1.014 = 12.0x
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
P/CF
= Price / Cash flow per share = $12.17 / [($253.6+$117.0) 250] =
8.21x * Lu chuyn tin: LNST + KH
35
TNH P/E, P/CF V M/B4/1/2011
M/B = Market price / Book value per share = $12.17 / ($1,952 /
250) = 1.56x2006EP/E P/CF M/B 12.0x 8.21x 1.56x
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
2005-1.4x -5.2x 0.5x
20049.7x 8.0x 1.3x
Ind.14.2x 11.0x 2.4x
36
18
4/1/2011
PHN TCH T S GI TR THTRNG4/1/2011
P/E:
Nh u t sn sng b ra bao nhiu i ly $1 li nhun ca doanh nghip.
P/CF: Nh u t sn sng b ra bao nhiu i ly $1 LC tin ca doanh nghip.
M/B: Nh u t sn sng b ra bao nhiu i ly $1 vn c phn ca doanh nghip.
Vi P/E
mi mt t s, gi tr cng cao th cng tt. v M/B cao nu ROE cao v ri ro
thp.37
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
PHN TCH DU PONTBn cht? Cng thc? ngha? nh hng ca cc nhn t v qun l
chi ph, qun l ti sn, qun l doanh thu, chnh sch ti chnh n kh nng
sinh li Nhn t no c nh hng ln nht n thay i kh nng sinh li trong k
phn tch Lm th no ci thin kh nng sinh li?4/1/2011
38
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
19
4/1/2011
THE DU PONT SYSTEMROE ROE Phn
4/1/2011
Profit margin (NI/Sales)
Total assets turnover (Sales/TA)
Equity multiplier (TA/Equity )
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
nh vic qun l chi ph (PM), s dng ti sn (TATO), v s dng n (Equity
multiplier.)39
PHNG TRNH DU PONT: BREAKING DOWN RETURN ON EQUITYROE = = = (NI /
Sales) x (Sales/TA) x (TA/Equity) 3.6% 13.0% x 2 x 1.8
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
PM2004 2.6%
TA TO2.3
EM2.2
ROE13.3%
2005 2006E Ind.
-2.7% 3.6% 3.5%
2.1 2.0 2.6
5.8 1.8 2.0
-32.5% 13.0% 18.2%
40
20
4/1/2011
V D: TC NG CA CI THINT S4/1/2011
KPT TSNH khc TSC Tng
$ 878 1,802 817 $3,497
N $1,545 Vn CSH 1,952 _____ Tng $3,497
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
DT /Ngy = $7,035,600/365 = $19,275.62Vic gim k thu tin bnh qun
xung cn 32 ngy nh hng n cng ty th no?
41
GIM KHON PHI THU V K THUTIN BNH QUN4/1/2011
Gim khon phi thu khng nh hng n doanh thu KPT c = $19,275.62 x
45.6 = $878,000 KPT mi = $19,275.62 x 32.0 = $616,820 Lng tin c gii
phng: $261,180 Hiu ng u tin: Tng tin
42
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
21
4/1/2011
NH HNG CA VIC GIM KPT N BN CN I K TON V GI CPTin tng $ 261 KPT
617 TSNH khc 1,802 TSC 817 Tng $3,497 N $1,545 Vn CSH 1,9524/1/2011
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Tng
______ $3,497
C th lm g vi lng tin tng thm? nh hng n ri ro v li nhun ca
CP?43
S DNG TIN GII PHNG C4/1/2011
Mua li c phiu M rng kinh doanh Gim n Tt c nhng hot ng ny s lm
tng gi c phiu .
44
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
22
4/1/2011
QUY TRNH PHN TCH T S NTN? B1:
Xc nh ng cng thc o lng ch tiu cn thit Xc nh ng s liu t cc bo co
ti chnh lp vo cng thc Gii thch ngha t s va tnh ton nh gi t s ti
chnh va tnh ton
4/1/2011
B2:
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
B3: B4: B5:
Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n t s va tnh ton45
SAU KHI PHN TCH TNG T S PHI LM G?
Lp bng tng hp c ci nhn ton cnh
4/1/2011
Kh nng thanh ton? Hot ng? ... Tng hay gim? Tt hay khng tt? qu kh
v trin vng Nguyn nhn?
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Kt lun v tnh hnh ti chnh, hiu qu hot ng ca doanh nghip xut cc
gii php khc phc
Cn u tin cc gii php no?
46
23
4/1/2011
Phn tch t s s a ra cu tr li chnh xc v tnh hnh ti chnh, hiu qu
kinh doanh?
47
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
HN CH CA PHN TCH T S4/1/2011
Trng
hp cng ty hot ng nhiu ngnh
Kh xy dng h thng t s bnh qun
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Gi
tr trung bnh ngnh cha hn l tt t thi v c th lm mo m cc t s
Tt hn mc trung bnh!!! Lu khi s dng s liu qu
Yu
S dng s bnh qun48
24
4/1/2011
HN CH CA PHN TCH T S4/1/2011
Cc
th thut lm p cc bo co ti chnh
Vay 2 nm t 27/12/2005 Tr n: 2/7/2006
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
nh hng n THH
Khng
th so snh nu nguyn tc thc hnh k ton ca cc doanh nghip khc
nhau
FIFO, LIFO, Dep THH cao?
Kh c th ni mt t s l tt hay xu 49
HN CH CA PHN TCH T S4/1/2011
Kh T
c th ni mt cng ty c tnh hnh Ti chnh mnh hay yus ny tt, t s khc
xu
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
nh
hng ca lm pht
Gi tr s snh # gi tr thc Tn kho, khu hao, li nhun Lu khi phn tch
qua thi gian
Garbage in garbage out! (cht lng thng tin ti chnh)
Ph php bo co ti chnh c ti liu tham kho
50
25
4/1/2011
PHN TCH NH TNH # NH LNG4/1/2011
Tt c doanh thu ca cng ty ph thuc vo mt khch hng chnh?
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Nu khng cn khch hng ny?
Doanh thu ca cng ty ph thuc vo mt sn phm ch cht?
Ri ro
Cng ty c b ph thuc vo mt nh cung cp duy nht hay khng?
Thiu ht bt ng Nh u t, cho vay cn lu !51
PHN TCH NH TNH # NH LNG4/1/2011
Bao nhiu phn trm hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty nc ngoi?
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
Ch yu nc ngoi tng trng, li/doanh thu ; Ch yu nc ngoi ri ro, gi
tr ng tin Cnh tranh gim gi bn + li rng/doanh thu Cn: nh gi cnh
tranh hin ti, gia nhp mi
S cnh tranh
Sn phm tng lai
Hot ng R&D?Mi trng?
Mi trng php l v qun l52
26
4/1/2011
PHN TCH BCTC VIT NAM?4/1/2011
c ti liu tham kho
53
Vn 2 - Phn tch t s
27
