VALUATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OF …conference.ifas.ufl.edu/aces12/presentations/3 Wednesday/3... · aces & ecosystem markets 2012 – fort lauderdale, fl, usa valuation of the

ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA

VALUATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OF CARBON STORAGE/SEQUESTRATION IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL

Pavani, B.F.(1); Sousa Jr., W.C.(1); Inouye, C.E.N.(1);

Mello, A.Y.I.(2), Vieira, S.A.(2)

(1) Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica - ITA

(2) Universidade Estadual de Campinas - UNICAMP


The study area: pressures

Pressures from: - Pre-Salt; - Tourism; - Infrastructure.


The study area: pressures

Port of São Sebastião

Itamambuca Beach


OBJECTIVES: • To estimate the potential losses in the Atlantic Forest

area from the urban expansion related to pre-salt explotation and its associated infrastructure;

• To value the carbon storage and release in the last

decades; and • To value the carbon storage and release from the future

scenarios in order to advise local decision makers.


The study area: urban expansion

- Blue: Urban area 1990;

- Green: Expansion 1999;

- Red: Expansion 2010.


The study area: scenarios

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1990 1999 2010 2030

Urb

an a

rea

(ha)

Year

Enquadramento legal

status quo

novos empreendimentos

Status quo

New infrastructure

Law enforcement


The study area: scenarios

166000

168000

170000

172000

174000

176000

178000

1990 1999 2010 2030

Veg

eta

tio

n (

ha)

Years

Enquadramento legal

status quo

novos empreendimentosNew infrastructure

Status quo

Law enforcement


Methodology

• InVEST - Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs. Release 2.3.0.

• Carbon Storage and Sequestration Module

• Input: LUCC scenarios

• Local carbon storage estimates


• Aboveground biomass

• Dead organic matter

• Belowground biomass

• Soil

Carbon pools: vegetation


Source: Vieira (2012)

Carbon stocks (Mg/ha)

LULC classC (live

aboveground)

C (live

belowground)

C (dead

belowground)

C (dead

aboveground)

Secondary vegetation 10 7 76 3

Agriculture 5 3 15 0

Atlantic rainforest 200 130 130 65

Lake 0 0 0 0

Mangrove 10 5 20 0

Mining areas 0 0 0 0

Pasture 5 4 25 1

Sandbanks 8 8 25 3

Forestry 10 3 80 1

Urban areas 0 0 0 0


Stock of carbon in

1990:

44.158.400 Mg

Stock of carbon in

2010:

43.808.300 Mg

Release of carbon

350.105 Mg

Results: last decades


Results: 2030

Scenarios C stored (Mg) C released (Mg)

Status quo 66.192.800 860.927

Law enforcement 66.831.000 222.721

New infrastructure 65.411.400 1.642.350


Valuation Carbon Market – REDD

12 US$/tCO2e

InVEST (tCO2 tC)

44 US$/tC

Discount rate (financial market, Brazil)

10%/year


Results: 2030

Scenarios C value (US$)

Status quo -17.737.500

Law enforcement -4.588.680

New infrastructure -33.837.000


Results: 2030 Law enforcement New infrastructure


Conclusions • Development of the Northern Coast of São Paulo,

supported by the extensive use of natural resources for economic growth and urban expansion pressures the Atlantic Forest in the entire coastal region.

• These changes in LULC have conducted to a reduction of

carbon stocks of more than 300.000 tons in the last

two decades.


• However, it points to the economic value of

approximately 1.9 billion dollars for carbon still

stored in the landscapes of the region, reinforcing the reasons of conservation and preservation of the rainforest;

• To the future, a “law enforcement” scenario could save almost US$30 billions in terms of carbon releases.

Conclusions


• To detail the carbon stocks in terms of altitude (it is expected that higher levels forests have different carbon storage capacity than those located in lower areas);

• To create a comprehensive spatial framework putting together carbon storage, infrastructure and institutional/legal tools, to help the decision making process.

Next steps


• Comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure projects (for instance: Belo Monte Dam, Tapajós Dams, and other hydropower projects on Amazon), including (as costs) the losses of some ecosystem services;

• Empirical models to explain the relationship between the human activities and some water related ecosystem services and modeling the ecosystem services payment;

• Spatial dynamic models in combination with ecological models to get a more efficient way to analyze and communicate the results.

What else we are doing


Sponsored by The Brazilian Government

www.redelitoral.ita.br [email protected]

Conducted by Partnership

http://www.redelitoral.ita.br/

Documents

VALUATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OF …conference.ifas.ufl.edu/aces12/presentations/3 Wednesday/3... · aces & ecosystem markets 2012 – fort lauderdale, fl, usa valuation of the