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Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels

Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

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Page 1: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Vagabond Ventures Oil Group

Searches For Fossil Fuels

Winter Session 2013

Page 2: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Week 1: Geology & History of HydrocarbonsWeek 1: Geology & History of Hydrocarbons Week 2: Oil Exploration Week 2: Oil Exploration Week 3: Petroleum EngineeringWeek 3: Petroleum Engineering

The Course OutlineThe Course Outline

Week 4: ‘Vagabond Group’ proposes 2 prospectsWeek 4: ‘Vagabond Group’ proposes 2 prospectsyour investment decisionyour investment decision Week 5: ‘Vagabond Group’ plans productionWeek 5: ‘Vagabond Group’ plans production

Week 6: the Payout?!Week 6: the Payout?!

The Basics:The Basics:

The Adventure:The Adventure: black-gold millionaire

black-gold millionaire

or or

dry hole hobo?

dry hole hobo?

Page 3: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Return on InvestmentsReturn on Investments

TODAY’S PLAN

3

Drilling ResultsDrilling Results

Page 4: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

DISCLAIMERThe material you are about to see was

developed for the learning and enjoyment of the class participants.

The diagrams and numbers have been gathered from various sources to reflect the geologic and economic scenerios of the two locations, but neither is a real prospect and neither represents an

actual investment opportunity. 4

Page 5: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

- Drilling resultsDrilling results- Return on investmentsReturn on investments

VAGABOND GROUPVAGABOND GROUP

2 OPPORTUNITIES2 OPPORTUNITIESOn-shore PennsylvaniaOn-shore PennsylvaniaOff-shore Gulf of MexicoOff-shore Gulf of Mexico

Page 6: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

VAGABOND GROUPVAGABOND GROUP

2 OPPORTUNITIES2 OPPORTUNITIESOn-shore PennsylvaniaOn-shore PennsylvaniaOff-shore Gulf of MexicoOff-shore Gulf of Mexico

- Drilling resultsDrilling results- Return on investmentsReturn on investments

On-shore PennsylvaniaOn-shore Pennsylvania

On-shore: PennsylvaniaOn-shore: Pennsylvania

Page 7: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

- TD @ 5,060’ in salt

- reached Marcellus shale @ 4,935’

- found 52’ Marcellus shale

On-shore: PennsylvaniaOn-shore: Pennsylvania

Is there

gas?Let’s look at the seismic & well

logs . . . .

Page 8: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

On-shore: PennsylvaniaOn-shore: Pennsylvania

`MARCELLUSMARCELLUS

S N

4’ shaleno gas

56’ shale46’ gas

DISCOVERY

thickness ? gas ?

our prospect

52’ shaleno gas!

Why?

DRY HOLE!

DRY HOLE

Page 9: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

On-shore: PennsylvaniaOn-shore: Pennsylvania

`

DISCOVERY

MARCELLUSMARCELLUS

S N

our prospect

1) no organic-rich deposits in our area of Marcellus

organic richnot organic rich

2) gas leaked out of Marcellus shale along fault

DRY HOLE

Page 10: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

On-shore: PennsylvaniaOn-shore: Pennsylvania

`MARCELLUSMARCELLUS

S N

1) no organic-rich deposits in our area of Marcellus 2) gas leaked out of Marcellus shale along fault

our prospect

fault leaks

DRY HOLE!

DISCOVERYDRY HOLE

One investor lost EVERYTHING!

sorry,

Pete!

Page 11: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

On-shore: PennsylvaniaOn-shore: PennsylvaniaS N

our prospect

DRY HOLE!

One investor lost EVERYTHING!

sorry,

Pete!

It’s not too late!

Page 12: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Upper Devonian Ohio Gas ShaleIt’s not too late!

Page 13: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Rocks of Northeastern USA

TIME

states of eastern US

385M ybp

DEV

ON

IAN

mid

dle

360M ybp

up

per

Page 14: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

extent of Ohio and related gas shales

Upper Devonian Ohio Gas Shale

Page 15: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

extent of Ohio and related gas shales

new study . . . oil and gas

drilling

Ohio . . . your next investment?

Upper Devonian Ohio Gas Shale

by Ohio Shale

Commission

Page 16: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

VAGABOND GROUPVAGABOND GROUP

2 OPPORTUNITIES2 OPPORTUNITIESOn-shore PennsylvaniaOn-shore PennsylvaniaOff-shore Gulf of MexicoOff-shore Gulf of MexicoOff-shore Gulf of MexicoOff-shore Gulf of Mexico

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

- Drilling resultsDrilling results- Return on investmentsReturn on investments

Page 17: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

- TD @ 16,624’ in salt

- reached Wilcox sand @ 12,500’

- found 2,166’ sandstone

Looking at the seismic data. . . .

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

- discovered 520’ oil sands Let’

see!

Page 18: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

saltWilcoxWilcox sandstones

sandstones

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

water ~6000’BE

ST

Wilcox Sandstone Reservoirs?our prospect

Page 19: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

saltWilcoxWilcox sandstones

sandstones

water ~6000’

our prospect

Page 20: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

11,500’ - top sand

16,000’ - base sand

12,500’12,500’

14,666’ - base sand14,666’ - base sand- & sand- & sand- fault- fault

Page 21: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

16,000’ - base sand

12,500’12,500’

14,666’ - base sand14,666’ - base sand- & sand- & sand- fault- fault

16,604’ – top salt16,604’ – top salt

Page 22: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

12,500’12,500’

14,666’ - base sand14,666’ - base sand- & sand- & sand- fault- fault

16,604’ – top salt16,604’ – top saltthickness of Wilcox sandthickness of Wilcox sand = 2,166’= 2,166’

14,666’ - base sand14,666’ - base sand

Let’s look at the well log . . . .

where’s

the oil!12,500’ – top sand12,500’ – top sand

Page 23: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

Presence of oil/gas

Reservoir Rocks(sandstones)

top sand: 12,500’ top sand: 12,500’

base sand: 14,666’ base sand: 14,666’

100’

520’

520 feet of ‘pay’

520 feet of ‘pay’

near base of Wilcox!

near base of Wilcox!

Page 24: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Off-shore: Gulf of MexicoOff-shore: Gulf of Mexico

??

520’ PAY520’ PAYnear base sandnear base sand

Lateral wellLateral well

perhaps more pay!perhaps more pay!

?? DISCOVERY!

Great success for our investors!

Page 25: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

- Drilling resultsDrilling results- Return on investmentsReturn on investments

VAGABOND GROUPVAGABOND GROUP

2 OPPORTUNITIES2 OPPORTUNITIESOn-shore PennsylvaniaOn-shore PennsylvaniaOff-shore Gulf of MexicoOff-shore Gulf of Mexico

Page 26: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Environmental Environmental OverviewOverview

Skip

Page 27: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS – AUSTIN UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS – AUSTIN (January 2012)(January 2012)(http://energy.utexas.edu/images/stories/chip_groat_shale_gas120126.pdf)(http://energy.utexas.edu/images/stories/chip_groat_shale_gas120126.pdf)

Separating FACT from FICTION

General ObservationsMany of the violations are procedural and:

o represent no environmental effects, or

o are minor with no environmental effects

o represent minor effects, such as small releases

Many of the effects noted occur in all types of oil and gas well development – not unique to shale gas

Fractured wells may experience more incidents because of additional equipment on the site

PUT UT’S RESULTS ON

PUT UT’S RESULTS ON

HOLD!HOLD!

Page 28: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

31

Page 29: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency StudyStudy

Separating FACT from FICTIONSeparating FACT from FICTION

Study started in 2010Study started in 2010

Results due in 2012Results due in 2012

NO RESULTS TILL

NO RESULTS TILL 20142014!!

Page 30: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

REMEMBER THE OFFSHORE BORDER DISPUTE?REMEMBER THE OFFSHORE BORDER DISPUTE?

33

Page 31: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT OPTIONSOFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS

34

FPSOFPSO=FFloating, PProduction, SStorage, OOffloading (5840ft)

Page 32: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

REMEMBER FPSO’S?REMEMBER FPSO’S?

35

Page 33: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

PETROLEUM ENGINEERPETROLEUM ENGINEER

36

Primary Jobs:

Reservoir Characterization

Production & Enhancements

Well Design & Drilling

36

EconomicAnalysis

Cove

red i

n CLA

SS N

o. 5

Cove

red i

n CLA

SS N

o. 5

Cove

red

in C

LASS

No.

6

Cove

red

in C

LASS

No.

6

Page 34: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

37

Economic Analysis

Page 35: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

Oil PriceOil PriceOil PriceOil Price

OperatinOperating &g &

InvestmeInvestment nt

Cost Cost

OperatinOperating &g &

InvestmeInvestment nt

Cost Cost ProductiProduction Rateon Rate

ProductiProduction Rateon Rate

38

RecoveraRecoverableble

ReservesReserves

RecoveraRecoverableble

ReservesReserves

Royalties Royalties &&

Working Working InterestInterest

Royalties Royalties &&

Working Working InterestInterest

O&G TaxO&G TaxAccountiAccounti

ngng

O&G TaxO&G TaxAccountiAccounti

ngng6 KEY

FACTORS IN O&G

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Page 36: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

Technical• Worldwide

Reserves status

• Worldwide Production Capacity

• Refining Capacity

Political• OPEC’s Mood• Producing

country’s stability

• Balance of Power

Financial• Transaction

costs

Factors Affecting OIL PRICE

39

Economic• Worldwide

Supply & Demand

• Cost of Alternatives

Page 37: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

Selection• Quality of

seismic • Geologic &

Geophysical selection accuracy

Modeling• Recovery

Factor• Reservoir

modeling accuracy

Drive• Reservoir

drive mechanism

Factors AffectingRECOVERABLE

RESERVES

40

Physical Rock Properties

• Reservoir aerial extent

• Porosity• Permeabilit

y

Page 38: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

Downhole• Quality of

completions

Regulations• State

mandated allowables

ProductionFaciliities

• Capacity of Facilities

Factors AffectingPRODUCTION RATES

41

Reservoir• Rate of

Depletion• Byproducts

produced

Page 39: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

Royalties• Amount

paid to property owners

• Over-ride agreements

Factors AffectingROYALTIES &

WORKING INTEREST

42

Working Interest

• Major player or not

Page 40: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

Well Cost• Depth of

well• Amt of

logging• Byproducts

produced• Drilling

costs• Enhanced

recovery needed

Financial• Proximity to

market• Insurance

Costs

Operating• Disposal

Needed• Fuel costs• Personnel

costs & benefits

Factors AffectingOPERATING &

INVESTMENT COSTS

43

Production Facilities

• Design Efficiency

• Volume capacity

Page 41: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

Tax code is written specifically for O&G investing, is complex and must be handled by specialist

Factors AffectingO&G TAX

ACCOUNTING

44

Page 42: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL & GAS ECONOMICSOIL & GAS ECONOMICS

45

All of these factors result in an economic calculation to

determine the profitability of the project

The economic calculation is a called a

Net Present Value (NPV) calculation

NPV = ∑ (Income – Expense)*(1+DR)^t

The following examples will make this understandable…

Page 43: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OFFSHORE GOM, BAHA #2OFFSHORE GOM, BAHA #2

46

Page 44: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

FUTURE PRODUCTION OFFSHOREFUTURE PRODUCTION OFFSHORE

47

Economic Calculations are

based on this type of

production curve

Economic Calculations are

based on this type of

production curve

Page 45: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

SIMPLE NET PRESENT VALUESIMPLE NET PRESENT VALUE

48

OFFSHORE, GULF OF MEXICO, BAHA FIELD PRODUCING 100,000 BOPD INITIALLY

DECLINING EXPONENTIALLY OVER 10 YEARS

INFLATION DATA IS FROM

APRIL 1989 TO APRIL 1999427427

%%

Page 46: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OTHER INVESTMENT RETURNSOTHER INVESTMENT RETURNS

52

STOCK DATA IS FROM APRIL 1989 TO APRIL

1999

Page 47: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OTHER INVESTMENT RETURNSOTHER INVESTMENT RETURNS

53

MUTUAL FUND DATA IS FROM APRIL 1989 TO

APRIL 1999

Page 48: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OTHER INVESTMENT RETURNSOTHER INVESTMENT RETURNS

54

INFLATION DATA IS FROM

APRIL 1989 TO APRIL 1999

Page 49: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

INVESTMENT SUMMARYINVESTMENT SUMMARY

55

INVESTMENT OPTION RETURNOFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO, BAHA #2

427%

ONSHORE PA, ONSHORE PA, VAGABOND #1VAGABOND #1

-100%-100%

BIG OIL: EXXON 121%MUTUAL FUND: VEXRX 52%UNDER MATTRESSUNDER MATTRESS -34%-34%

(Results would vary for a different time period)

Page 50: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

1 person made more than $5,000,000!$5,000,000! congratulations . . .

Four S’s Drilling Co!

PARTICIPANT RESULTS - SAGEPARTICIPANT RESULTS - SAGE% of Class% of Class Range of Range of ReturnsReturns

3%3% greater than greater than 5X5X the investmentthe investment

76%76% between between 2X to 5X 2X to 5X the investmentthe investment18%18% between between 1X to 2X1X to 2X the investment the investment3%3% ………………………………Lost it ALL!………………….Lost it ALL!………………….

Page 51: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

VAGABOND OIL GROUPVAGABOND OIL GROUP

58

CONGRATSCONGRATSTo all theTo all the

Black Gold Black Gold Millionaires!Millionaires!

Page 52: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Thanks for the help . Thanks for the help . . .. .

Kathy and Amy Kathy and Amy Barb, Ray & BertBarb, Ray & Bert

CharlieCharlie

THE ENDTHE ENDVAGABOND OIL GROUPVAGABOND OIL GROUP

Page 53: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

61http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9gGqNUxQ5Q

BOOKS/ARTICLES• Petroleum Geology, Exploration, Drilling, and Petroleum Geology, Exploration, Drilling, and

Production Production by Norman J. Hyne PhDby Norman J. Hyne PhD

• Money in the Ground Money in the Ground by John Orban, IIIby John Orban, III

• Let’s Talk Oil Deal Let’s Talk Oil Deal by John Orban, IIIby John Orban, III

• Economic Evaluation and Investment Decision Economic Evaluation and Investment Decision Methods Methods by Franklin J & John M. Stermoleby Franklin J & John M. Stermole

• Financial Accounting for Upstream Oil & Gas Financial Accounting for Upstream Oil & Gas ActivitiesActivities, Professional Development Institute, , Professional Development Institute, University of North TexasUniversity of North Texas

• Choosing a Perforation StrategyChoosing a Perforation Strategy, Schlumberger, Schlumberger

PERSONAL CONTACTS• Mike BeaumontMike Beaumont, Petroleum Engineer & , Petroleum Engineer &

Independent O&G Consultant, EuropeIndependent O&G Consultant, Europe

• David KarrsDavid Karrs, Petroleum Engineer, Chevron, , Petroleum Engineer, Chevron, USAUSA

• Bob GowerBob Gower, Finance & Accounting, Chevron, , Finance & Accounting, Chevron, Houston, TexasHouston, Texas

• Keith SeanardKeith Seanard, PE & Exploitation Mgr., Swift , PE & Exploitation Mgr., Swift Energy, Houston, TexasEnergy, Houston, Texas

• Frank KellyFrank Kelly, Petroleum Engineer, , Petroleum Engineer, Schlumberger, DubaiSchlumberger, Dubai

• Tako KoningTako Koning, Geologist & Independent O&G , Geologist & Independent O&G Consultant, West AfricaConsultant, West Africa

• Robin WrigleyRobin Wrigley, Independent O&G Consultant, , Independent O&G Consultant, UKUK

Page 54: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

Petroleum Engineer - REFERENCESREFERENCES• http://www.observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/04/http://www.observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/04/

best-worst-10-years-in-stock-market.html best-worst-10-years-in-stock-market.html • http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/default.cfm • http://www.123rf.com/search.php?

word=oil_well&start=60&searchopts=&itemsperpage=60

INTERNET

62

• http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/03/http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/03/average-annual-stock-market-return.html average-annual-stock-market-return.html • http://www.energyindustryphotos.com/

oilfield_blowout_photos_and_rig.htm • http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=115612

Page 55: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OIL &GAS ECONOMICSOIL &GAS ECONOMICS

OPEC MEMBERSHIP

63

Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia IranIranAlgeriaAlgeria AngolaAngolaEcuadorEcuador IraqIraqKuwaitKuwait LibyaLibyaNigeriaNigeria QatarQatarUAEUAE VenezuelaVenezuela

Gabon & Indonesia are former members

Page 56: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

WIND ENERGYWIND ENERGY

64

Page 57: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

WIND ENERGYWIND ENERGY

65

1 natural gas well produces: 2,400,000 cu ft per day

Or 100,000 cu ft/hour

Natural gas has approx. 1,000 BTU per cu ft

Therefore 1 well produces: 100,000,000 BTU per hour

1 standard wind turbine produces: 6,824,284 BTU/hr(2.0 MW wind turbine)

Therefore, 1 well is equivalent to 14.7 wind turbines (in the amount of energy produced)

Page 58: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

WIND ENERGYWIND ENERGY

66

6400 ft

8300 ft

15 turbines15 turbinesneedneed

1,220 acres1,220 acres

15 turbines15 turbinesneedneed

1,220 acres1,220 acres

• 1 well takes 5 acres5 acres to drill; 15 wind turbines need 1,220 acres (or 81.3 acres each)

• Therefore, wind turbines need 244X as much space and 4X as many roads

• 1 well cost = $2.1 million; 15 wind turbines = $52.5 million

• Therefore, wind turbines are 25X more expensive for the same amount of energy

Page 59: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

67

Select investment time period

Page 60: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

HOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEARHOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEAR

68

The best 10-year periods to own stocks were years beginning in:1918: the return approx. 19.5% per year for next 10 years 1948 & 49: 18.5% annual return 1987 & 88: about 18.5% annual return

The worst years to buy were:1922: the return was 0.4% per year for the next 10 years 1928: -1.3% annual return (loss)-- because you would have had the great misfortune of buying just before the 1929-1932 stock market crash. 1964: annual return of 0.3%

The Best and Worst 10-Year Returns in Dow Jones History (since 1900)http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/04/best-worst-10-years-in-stock-market.html

Found a website that did my work for me, or so I thought…

Page 61: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

HOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEARHOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEAR

69

Then used their chart to select years with average returns

Page 62: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

HOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEARHOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEAR

70

But Exxon’s chart only goes back to 1970;Since most of Best/Worst years were before 1970, I

had to start over

Page 63: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL INDEX (‘70-’12)DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL INDEX (‘70-’12)

71http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart8:symbol=%5Edji;range=19700127,20120128;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off

So, used the DJI chart from 1970 to present and selected 10 periods that gave a “normal”

distribution of possible returns

Page 64: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

HOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEARHOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEAR

72 > > 12.512.5

%%

>4.0%< >4.0%< 12.5%12.5%

< < 4.0%4.0%

Page 65: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

HOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEARHOW WE SELECTED THE DJI YEAR

73

SORTED BY Order Picked out of Hat

Selection Start End Begin End 10 YR % Compd

Order Date Date Years Dow Dow Diff Return Annually

1 Jan-94 Jan-04 10.0 3636 10357 6721 184.8% 11.03%

2 Jan-99 Jan-09 10.0 9786 8447 -1339 -13.7% -1.46%

3 Jul-97 Jul-07 10.0 7945 13896 5951 74.9% 5.75%

4 Jan-85 Jan-95 10.0 1267 4158 2891 228.2% 12.61%

5 Jan-95 Jan-05 10.0 4157 10504 6347 152.7% 9.71%

6 Oct-89 Oct-99 10.0 2753 11497 8744 317.6% 15.36%

7 Apr-90 Apr-00 10.0 2881 10447 7566 262.6% 13.74%

8 Jan-02 Jan-12 10.0 10404 12980 2576 24.8% 2.24%

9 Jan-73 Jan-83 10.0 951 1130 179 18.8% 1.74%

10 Jan-87 Jan-97 10.0 2305 6583 4278 185.6% 11.06%

Don was asked to select a number from 1 to Don was asked to select a number from 1 to 10; he chose 7 10; he chose 7

Page 66: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

74

O&G Economic Overview

Page 67: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

75

Balancing RisksBalancing Risks

• 3000 Oil & Gas Companies in the USA3000 Oil & Gas Companies in the USA• 2 Key Attributes: 2 Key Attributes: Finding O&GFinding O&G & & Managing RiskManaging Risk

• What What riskrisk you say??.... you say??....

Company ACompany A StrengthStrength WeaknessWeakness

Company BCompany B WeaknessWeakness Strength Strength

Company CCompany C StrengthStrength StrengthStrength

Page 68: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

76

Risk MitigationRisk Mitigation

Include table from Money in the Ground, page 212, figure

“To what extent can O&G Investments risks be avoided,

controlled or minimized?

From “Money in the Ground” by Orban

If you do:

• DUE DILIGENCE• PLANNING &• THOUGHTFUL

PREPARATIONYou can avoid:• 100% stupid mistakes• 80% of excessive drlg costs• 70% of excessive prod costs• Etc.

Page 69: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

SIX PRINCIPLE ECONOMIC FACTORSSIX PRINCIPLE ECONOMIC FACTORS

77

(and attributes that cause (and attributes that cause riskrisk of that factor)of that factor)

• Price of oil (POO) Price of oil (POO) (OPEC’s “mood”, worldwide supply/demand, (OPEC’s “mood”, worldwide supply/demand, weather, market speculation, standby production capacity, political weather, market speculation, standby production capacity, political instabilities, refining capacity, etc.)instabilities, refining capacity, etc.)

• Recoverable Reserves (RR) Recoverable Reserves (RR) (reservoir aerial extent, thickness, (reservoir aerial extent, thickness, porosity, permeability, reservoir drive mechanism, etc.)porosity, permeability, reservoir drive mechanism, etc.)

• Production Rate (PR) Production Rate (PR) (State mandated Allowables, depletion (State mandated Allowables, depletion curve, byproducts produced, etc.)curve, byproducts produced, etc.)

• Operating & Investment Cost (OIC) Operating & Investment Cost (OIC) (depth of well, (depth of well, byproducts produced, proximity to market, steel supply/demand, type byproducts produced, proximity to market, steel supply/demand, type drilling contract, amount of logging done, volume capacity of producing drilling contract, amount of logging done, volume capacity of producing facilities, disposal issues, water and fuel source, insurance cost, etc.)facilities, disposal issues, water and fuel source, insurance cost, etc.)

Page 70: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

SIX PRINCIPLE ECONOMIC FACTORSSIX PRINCIPLE ECONOMIC FACTORS

78

• Ownership: Working Interest, Royalties & Ownership: Working Interest, Royalties & Overrides (WI, ROY, OR) Overrides (WI, ROY, OR) (ownership subject to priority (ownership subject to priority overrides, calculating working interest in O&G properties is not overrides, calculating working interest in O&G properties is not straightforward as you might think)straightforward as you might think)

• Oil & Gas Accounting (TAX) Oil & Gas Accounting (TAX) (tax code is written specifically (tax code is written specifically for O&G investing, is complex and must be handled by specialist; for O&G investing, is complex and must be handled by specialist; accounting methods of successful efforts or full cost; handling of accounting methods of successful efforts or full cost; handling of depletion allowance, etc.)depletion allowance, etc.)

(and attributes that cause (and attributes that cause riskrisk to that factor)to that factor)

Page 71: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

DISTRIBUTION OF USA WELLS BY DISTRIBUTION OF USA WELLS BY PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

77.4% of all USA Producing wells

produce less than

10 BOPD

35% of all USA Producing wells

produce between

0 & 1 BOPD

98.5% of all USA Producing wells produce

less than 100 BOPD

79

Page 72: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

DISTRIBUTION OF TEXAS WELLS BY DISTRIBUTION OF TEXAS WELLS BY PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

80

76.6% of all Texas Producing

wells produce less than 10 BOPD

30% of all Texas Producing wells

produce between

0 & 1 BOPD

98.5% of all Texas

Producing wells produce less

than 100 BOPD

Page 73: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OPERATING COSTS – ONSHORE, OIL WELLOPERATING COSTS – ONSHORE, OIL WELL

81

Page 74: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

OPERATING COSTS – ONSHORE, GAS WELLOPERATING COSTS – ONSHORE, GAS WELL

82

Page 75: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

ECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC ANALYSIS

83

• The bottomline in any financial investment The bottomline in any financial investment decision is what is the NPV (decision is what is the NPV (net present value of net present value of the cash flow streamthe cash flow stream) generated by this ) generated by this investmentinvestment

• NPV is therefore a combination of the six NPV is therefore a combination of the six principle factors in these generalized equations:principle factors in these generalized equations:

• RevenueRevenue = PR x POO x (WI+ROY-OR) = PR x POO x (WI+ROY-OR)

• CostsCosts = OIC x TAX adjusts = OIC x TAX adjusts

• NPVNPV = (Revenue – Costs) per period = (Revenue – Costs) per period discounted at some discount ratediscounted at some discount rate

Page 76: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

ECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC ANALYSIS

84

• In conjunction with NPV, modern risk analysis uses In conjunction with NPV, modern risk analysis uses Expected Value Theory for investing in a “pool” of Expected Value Theory for investing in a “pool” of propertiesproperties

• Example:Example:

(all costs in(all costs in

$1000’s)$1000’s)

• The cost of the “deal” should be no more than $150The cost of the “deal” should be no more than $150

Possible Outcomes

NPV Value

Probability of Outcome

Probability Weighted

Value

Successful WellSuccessful Well $1,000$1,000 10%10% $100$100

Successful WellSuccessful Well $250$250 20%20% $50$50

Dry HoleDry Hole $ 0$ 0 70%70% $ 0$ 0

Expected Expected Value Value $150$150

Very

Page 77: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

O&G BUSINESS CYCLEO&G BUSINESS CYCLE

85 From “Money in the Ground” by Orban

• There seems to be a business cycle like this:There seems to be a business cycle like this:

a.a. Demand for crude increasesDemand for crude increases

b.b. Since it takes time to find & develop new reserves, Since it takes time to find & develop new reserves, there is a near term shortagethere is a near term shortage

c.c. Prices rise; people turn to “Conservation” & Prices rise; people turn to “Conservation” & “Alternate Energy”“Alternate Energy”

d.d. Oil companies & investors rush to invest in Oil companies & investors rush to invest in Exploration & Production (E&P)Exploration & Production (E&P)

e.e. E&P investments start to grow 18 mo or so laterE&P investments start to grow 18 mo or so later

f.f. Supply floods the market, prices recede; people Supply floods the market, prices recede; people “forget” about conservation“forget” about conservation

g.g. Eventually, demand starts rising againEventually, demand starts rising again

Page 78: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

ECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC ANALYSIS

86

In summary:In summary:

• Oil & Gas investing is a risky businessOil & Gas investing is a risky business

• Understand the components of riskUnderstand the components of risk

• Invest with experienced, reputable Invest with experienced, reputable companies with a very good track record of companies with a very good track record of both finding hydrocarbons and minimizing both finding hydrocarbons and minimizing risksrisks

• Use investment specialists as requiredUse investment specialists as required

• Catch the O&G business cycle at the right Catch the O&G business cycle at the right timetime

Page 79: Vagabond Ventures Oil Group Searches For Fossil Fuels Winter Session 2013

WHERE DID WEIRD IDEA COME FROM?WHERE DID WEIRD IDEA COME FROM?

88

Spotted the concept of an oil platform attacked on the web, of course. Built the idea

from there.