185
Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projections July 1, 2017

Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

  • Upload
    vuhuong

  • View
    217

  • Download
    2

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Utah's Long-term

Demographic and Economic Projections

July 1, 2017

Page 2: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017
Page 3: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

July 1, 2017 Utah Legislative Fiscal Analyst’s Office Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget State Capitol Salt Lake City, Utah 84114 Subject: Letter of Transmittal In accordance with our September 1, 2015 Memorandum of Understanding, the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017 vintage Long-term Demographic and Economic Projections. This binder, and the accompanying flash drive, include the raw data files for many of the most requested data items at the state- and county-level, including population, school age population, retirement age population, population pyramids, components of population change, employment, and households. The complete datasets are available now upon request, and over the next several weeks will be placed online at www.gardner.utah.edu. In the coming months, the Gardner Policy Institute will be preparing research briefs, fact sheets, snapshots, web-enabled visualizations, and other products to share these projections statewide. We will also prepare detailed documentation of our data sources and methods. I extend my appreciation to the many entities that collaborated with us on this research product. I also want to thank our demographic and economic teams led by Pam Perlich and Juliette Tennert at the Gardner Policy Institute for their talent and professionalism in preparing these projections. I’m confident these projections will help Utah state and local government better plan for the state’s long-term needs in education, transportation, water, and other planning decisions. Utah businesses, nonprofit organizations, and the public will also benefit as we plan to keep Utah prosperous for years to come. Sincerely, Natalie Gochnour, Director

Page 4: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017
Page 5: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table of Contents

State of Utah .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 3

Beaver County .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Box Elder County .................................................................................................................................................................................. 15

Cache County ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21

Carbon County....................................................................................................................................................................................... 27

Daggett County ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 33

Davis County .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 39

Duchesne County ................................................................................................................................................................................. 45

Emery County ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 51

Garfield County ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 57

Grand County ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 63

Iron County ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 69

Juab County ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 75

Kane County ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 81

Millard County ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 87

Morgan County ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 93

Piute County ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 99

Rich County ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 105

Salt Lake County ................................................................................................................................................................................. 111

San Juan County ................................................................................................................................................................................. 117

Sanpete County ................................................................................................................................................................................... 123

Sevier County ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 129

Summit County ................................................................................................................................................................................... 135

Tooele County ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 141

Uintah County ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 147

Utah County .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 153

Wasatch County .................................................................................................................................................................................. 159

Washington County .......................................................................................................................................................................... 165

Wayne County ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 171

Weber County ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 177

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 1

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 6: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

2 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 7: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

State of Utah

Table 1: Utah Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 2,997,404 30.7 666,974 1,770,860 305,273

2016 3,054,806 57,402 1.9% 30.9 676,459 9,486 1.4% 1,805,616 34,756 2.0% 318,894 13,621 4.5%

2017 3,123,607 68,801 2.3% 31.2 684,631 8,172 1.2% 1,845,065 39,449 2.2% 335,812 16,918 5.3%

2018 3,193,415 69,809 2.2% 31.4 693,269 8,638 1.3% 1,884,245 39,181 2.1% 354,259 18,446 5.5%

2019 3,260,765 67,349 2.1% 31.7 699,962 6,693 1.0% 1,921,806 37,560 2.0% 372,850 18,591 5.2%

2020 3,325,425 64,661 2.0% 31.9 705,631 5,669 0.8% 1,957,722 35,916 1.9% 391,442 18,592 5.0%

2021 3,389,467 64,042 1.9% 32.2 708,542 2,911 0.4% 1,993,455 35,734 1.8% 411,593 20,151 5.1%

2022 3,449,985 60,518 1.8% 32.5 712,480 3,938 0.6% 2,027,389 33,934 1.7% 431,420 19,828 4.8%

2023 3,507,364 57,379 1.7% 32.8 715,336 2,856 0.4% 2,060,074 32,684 1.6% 450,715 19,295 4.5%

2024 3,562,226 54,861 1.6% 33.0 717,354 2,019 0.3% 2,091,879 31,805 1.5% 469,232 18,517 4.1%

2025 3,615,036 52,811 1.5% 33.3 718,210 856 0.1% 2,122,790 30,911 1.5% 487,659 18,427 3.9%

2026 3,669,342 54,306 1.5% 33.4 719,678 1,468 0.2% 2,155,321 32,531 1.5% 504,883 17,224 3.5%

2027 3,723,441 54,099 1.5% 33.6 721,751 2,073 0.3% 2,187,581 32,260 1.5% 521,321 16,438 3.3%

2028 3,778,152 54,711 1.5% 33.7 724,517 2,766 0.4% 2,220,156 32,575 1.5% 537,054 15,733 3.0%

2029 3,833,308 55,155 1.5% 33.8 729,200 4,683 0.6% 2,252,342 32,186 1.4% 551,460 14,406 2.7%

2030 3,889,310 56,003 1.5% 34.0 736,180 6,980 1.0% 2,284,097 31,755 1.4% 564,649 13,190 2.4%

2031 3,946,122 56,811 1.5% 34.1 742,719 6,540 0.9% 2,318,155 34,058 1.5% 576,640 11,991 2.1%

2032 4,004,069 57,948 1.5% 34.3 750,959 8,239 1.1% 2,351,322 33,167 1.4% 588,852 12,211 2.1%

2033 4,062,343 58,273 1.5% 34.4 759,942 8,983 1.2% 2,384,111 32,789 1.4% 601,095 12,244 2.1%

2034 4,120,490 58,148 1.4% 34.6 770,334 10,392 1.4% 2,414,778 30,667 1.3% 614,121 13,026 2.2%

2035 4,178,317 57,826 1.4% 34.8 779,026 8,692 1.1% 2,445,419 30,641 1.3% 628,814 14,693 2.4%

2036 4,235,865 57,548 1.4% 34.9 787,890 8,864 1.1% 2,475,620 30,201 1.2% 643,797 14,983 2.4%

2037 4,293,208 57,344 1.4% 35.1 797,104 9,214 1.2% 2,506,546 30,927 1.2% 657,890 14,093 2.2%

2038 4,350,268 57,060 1.3% 35.3 806,637 9,533 1.2% 2,537,729 31,183 1.2% 671,534 13,644 2.1%

2039 4,407,155 56,887 1.3% 35.5 816,444 9,807 1.2% 2,568,245 30,516 1.2% 685,764 14,229 2.1%

2040 4,463,950 56,795 1.3% 35.7 826,429 9,984 1.2% 2,597,226 28,981 1.1% 701,572 15,809 2.3%

2041 4,520,678 56,728 1.3% 35.8 836,467 10,039 1.2% 2,624,934 27,708 1.1% 718,784 17,212 2.5%

2042 4,577,247 56,569 1.3% 36.0 846,377 9,910 1.2% 2,650,884 25,950 1.0% 737,883 19,099 2.7%

2043 4,633,568 56,321 1.2% 36.2 855,987 9,610 1.1% 2,675,796 24,912 0.9% 758,145 20,261 2.7%

2044 4,689,532 55,965 1.2% 36.4 865,150 9,163 1.1% 2,700,610 24,814 0.9% 778,604 20,459 2.7%

2045 4,745,057 55,525 1.2% 36.6 873,751 8,601 1.0% 2,724,245 23,634 0.9% 800,316 21,712 2.8%

2046 4,800,120 55,062 1.2% 36.8 881,707 7,956 0.9% 2,748,346 24,101 0.9% 821,637 21,321 2.7%

2047 4,854,748 54,628 1.1% 36.9 888,990 7,283 0.8% 2,772,936 24,590 0.9% 842,566 20,929 2.5%

2048 4,909,089 54,341 1.1% 37.1 895,633 6,643 0.7% 2,798,125 25,189 0.9% 863,081 20,515 2.4%

2049 4,963,211 54,122 1.1% 37.2 901,673 6,040 0.7% 2,824,301 26,176 0.9% 882,794 19,713 2.3%

2050 5,017,232 54,022 1.1% 37.3 907,179 5,506 0.6% 2,849,739 25,438 0.9% 903,462 20,668 2.3%

2051 5,071,236 54,004 1.1% 37.4 912,247 5,068 0.6% 2,875,047 25,308 0.9% 924,451 20,990 2.3%

2052 5,125,126 53,890 1.1% 37.4 916,968 4,722 0.5% 2,900,854 25,807 0.9% 944,955 20,504 2.2%

2053 5,178,833 53,707 1.0% 37.5 921,447 4,479 0.5% 2,927,033 26,180 0.9% 964,935 19,980 2.1%

2054 5,232,327 53,495 1.0% 37.6 925,810 4,363 0.5% 2,952,816 25,783 0.9% 985,028 20,092 2.1%

2055 5,285,767 53,439 1.0% 37.7 930,229 4,419 0.5% 2,976,951 24,135 0.8% 1,006,482 21,454 2.2%

2056 5,339,307 53,540 1.0% 37.7 934,856 4,627 0.5% 2,999,376 22,424 0.8% 1,029,384 22,902 2.3%

2057 5,393,004 53,696 1.0% 37.8 939,808 4,952 0.5% 3,025,642 26,266 0.9% 1,048,149 18,765 1.8%

2058 5,446,925 53,921 1.0% 37.9 945,186 5,378 0.6% 3,054,385 28,744 1.0% 1,064,146 15,997 1.5%

2059 5,501,088 54,163 1.0% 38.0 951,062 5,876 0.6% 3,084,598 30,213 1.0% 1,078,369 14,224 1.3%

2060 5,555,423 54,335 1.0% 38.0 957,453 6,392 0.7% 3,115,001 30,403 1.0% 1,092,054 13,685 1.3%

2061 5,609,943 54,519 1.0% 38.1 964,370 6,917 0.7% 3,142,583 27,582 0.9% 1,108,251 16,197 1.5%

2062 5,664,555 54,613 1.0% 38.1 971,800 7,430 0.8% 3,167,041 24,459 0.8% 1,127,225 18,975 1.7%

2063 5,719,145 54,590 1.0% 38.2 979,706 7,906 0.8% 3,192,733 25,692 0.8% 1,144,582 17,356 1.5%

2064 5,773,599 54,454 1.0% 38.3 988,034 8,328 0.9% 3,217,796 25,063 0.8% 1,162,154 17,572 1.5%

2065 5,827,810 54,210 0.9% 38.3 996,717 8,683 0.9% 3,241,337 23,542 0.7% 1,180,818 18,664 1.6%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 3

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 8: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Utah: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Utah: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

4 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 9: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Utah Components of Change

Year Region Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Utah 50,904 17,353 33,551 21,994 55,5452016 Utah 50,573 17,445 33,128 24,274 57,4022017 Utah 53,382 17,541 35,841 32,960 68,8012018 Utah 54,144 18,256 35,888 33,920 69,8092019 Utah 54,883 19,003 35,880 31,469 67,3492020 Utah 55,563 19,747 35,816 28,845 64,6612021 Utah 56,226 17,839 38,388 25,654 64,0422022 Utah 56,884 18,437 38,447 22,071 60,5182023 Utah 57,534 19,029 38,505 18,874 57,3792024 Utah 58,201 19,615 38,586 16,275 54,8612025 Utah 58,897 20,201 38,696 14,115 52,8112026 Utah 59,623 20,790 38,833 15,473 54,3062027 Utah 60,430 21,381 39,049 15,051 54,0992028 Utah 61,262 21,987 39,275 15,436 54,7112029 Utah 62,122 22,614 39,507 15,648 55,1552030 Utah 62,984 23,260 39,724 16,278 56,0032031 Utah 63,831 23,925 39,905 16,906 56,8112032 Utah 64,657 24,611 40,046 17,902 57,9482033 Utah 65,449 25,319 40,131 18,143 58,2732034 Utah 66,169 26,040 40,129 18,019 58,1482035 Utah 66,807 26,771 40,036 17,790 57,8262036 Utah 67,362 27,509 39,853 17,695 57,5482037 Utah 67,827 28,252 39,575 17,768 57,3442038 Utah 68,218 28,995 39,223 17,837 57,0602039 Utah 68,555 29,736 38,819 18,068 56,8872040 Utah 68,856 30,472 38,385 18,411 56,7952041 Utah 69,138 31,201 37,937 18,791 56,7282042 Utah 69,432 31,922 37,510 19,059 56,5692043 Utah 69,755 32,632 37,123 19,198 56,3212044 Utah 70,100 33,328 36,772 19,192 55,9652045 Utah 70,478 34,003 36,475 19,049 55,5252046 Utah 70,893 34,654 36,239 18,823 55,0622047 Utah 71,349 35,287 36,062 18,566 54,6282048 Utah 71,845 35,909 35,937 18,405 54,3412049 Utah 72,392 36,506 35,885 18,236 54,1222050 Utah 72,985 37,082 35,903 18,119 54,0222051 Utah 73,623 37,642 35,981 18,023 54,0042052 Utah 74,307 38,194 36,113 17,777 53,8902053 Utah 75,031 38,741 36,291 17,416 53,7072054 Utah 75,785 39,284 36,500 16,994 53,4952055 Utah 76,557 39,828 36,730 16,710 53,4392056 Utah 77,343 40,377 36,966 16,574 53,5402057 Utah 78,139 40,938 37,201 16,496 53,6962058 Utah 78,933 41,518 37,414 16,507 53,9212059 Utah 79,717 42,123 37,595 16,569 54,1632060 Utah 80,485 42,755 37,730 16,605 54,3352061 Utah 81,229 43,421 37,809 16,711 54,5192062 Utah 81,944 44,119 37,825 16,787 54,6132063 Utah 82,624 44,850 37,774 16,816 54,5902064 Utah 83,266 45,617 37,650 16,804 54,4542065 Utah 83,868 46,416 37,452 16,758 54,210

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 5

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 10: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Utah: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Utah: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

6 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 11: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Utah Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 1,863,692 987,442 2.992016 1,932,688 68,996 3.7% 1,011,905 24,463 2.5% 2.972017 1,998,217 65,530 3.4% 1,039,980 28,075 2.8% 2.952018 2,058,177 59,959 3.0% 1,069,114 29,134 2.8% 2.942019 2,113,031 54,854 2.7% 1,097,501 28,387 2.7% 2.922020 2,163,867 50,835 2.4% 1,125,044 27,543 2.5% 2.912021 2,210,750 46,883 2.2% 1,153,177 28,133 2.5% 2.892022 2,254,342 43,592 2.0% 1,180,155 26,978 2.3% 2.882023 2,295,518 41,176 1.8% 1,206,243 26,088 2.2% 2.862024 2,335,118 39,600 1.7% 1,231,542 25,299 2.1% 2.852025 2,373,675 38,558 1.7% 1,256,295 24,753 2.0% 2.832026 2,411,432 37,756 1.6% 1,281,399 25,104 2.0% 2.822027 2,448,420 36,988 1.5% 1,306,435 25,036 2.0% 2.802028 2,484,712 36,292 1.5% 1,331,723 25,288 1.9% 2.792029 2,520,483 35,771 1.4% 1,357,131 25,408 1.9% 2.782030 2,555,872 35,388 1.4% 1,382,797 25,666 1.9% 2.772031 2,590,957 35,086 1.4% 1,409,046 26,249 1.9% 2.762032 2,625,769 34,811 1.3% 1,435,827 26,781 1.9% 2.742033 2,660,302 34,534 1.3% 1,462,740 26,913 1.9% 2.732034 2,694,557 34,254 1.3% 1,489,601 26,861 1.8% 2.722035 2,728,541 33,984 1.3% 1,515,728 26,126 1.8% 2.712036 2,762,252 33,711 1.2% 1,541,141 25,414 1.7% 2.712037 2,795,701 33,449 1.2% 1,566,339 25,198 1.6% 2.702038 2,828,921 33,220 1.2% 1,591,194 24,855 1.6% 2.692039 2,861,942 33,021 1.2% 1,615,947 24,752 1.6% 2.682040 2,894,787 32,845 1.1% 1,640,342 24,396 1.5% 2.682041 2,927,472 32,685 1.1% 1,664,539 24,196 1.5% 2.672042 2,960,009 32,537 1.1% 1,688,209 23,670 1.4% 2.672043 2,992,403 32,394 1.1% 1,711,483 23,274 1.4% 2.662044 3,024,653 32,251 1.1% 1,734,756 23,273 1.4% 2.662045 3,056,754 32,101 1.1% 1,757,619 22,863 1.3% 2.662046 3,088,695 31,941 1.0% 1,780,277 22,657 1.3% 2.652047 3,120,470 31,775 1.0% 1,802,676 22,399 1.3% 2.652048 3,152,074 31,604 1.0% 1,825,099 22,423 1.2% 2.652049 3,183,499 31,426 1.0% 1,847,852 22,754 1.2% 2.642050 3,214,743 31,244 1.0% 1,870,806 22,954 1.2% 2.642051 3,245,805 31,062 1.0% 1,893,840 23,034 1.2% 2.632052 3,276,685 30,880 1.0% 1,916,951 23,110 1.2% 2.632053 3,307,381 30,696 0.9% 1,940,444 23,493 1.2% 2.622054 3,337,889 30,508 0.9% 1,964,548 24,104 1.2% 2.622055 3,368,205 30,316 0.9% 1,989,132 24,584 1.3% 2.612056 3,398,322 30,117 0.9% 2,013,292 24,161 1.2% 2.612057 3,428,234 29,911 0.9% 2,037,308 24,016 1.2% 2.602058 3,457,930 29,697 0.9% 2,061,648 24,340 1.2% 2.602059 3,487,402 29,471 0.9% 2,086,297 24,649 1.2% 2.592060 3,516,636 29,234 0.8% 2,111,304 25,007 1.2% 2.592061 3,545,619 28,983 0.8% 2,136,644 25,340 1.2% 2.582062 3,574,337 28,717 0.8% 2,161,332 24,688 1.2% 2.582063 3,602,770 28,434 0.8% 2,185,757 24,426 1.1% 2.572064 3,630,902 28,131 0.8% 2,210,140 24,383 1.1% 2.572065 3,658,710 27,808 0.8% 2,234,094 23,954 1.1% 2.57

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 7

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 12: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

8 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 13: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Beaver County

Table 1: Beaver Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 6,710 33.3 1,635 3,619 892

2016 6,782 72 1.1% 33.6 1,648 13 0.8% 3,654 34 1.0% 936 44 4.9%

2017 6,850 68 1.0% 33.8 1,661 13 0.8% 3,688 34 0.9% 967 31 3.3%

2018 6,935 85 1.2% 34.0 1,671 10 0.6% 3,739 51 1.4% 995 28 2.9%

2019 7,015 80 1.1% 34.2 1,669 (2) -0.1% 3,786 46 1.2% 1,020 25 2.5%

2020 7,082 67 1.0% 34.3 1,683 14 0.8% 3,809 23 0.6% 1,054 34 3.3%

2021 7,152 71 1.0% 34.4 1,672 (11) -0.7% 3,831 22 0.6% 1,106 53 5.0%

2022 7,221 69 1.0% 34.3 1,654 (18) -1.1% 3,859 28 0.7% 1,159 53 4.8%

2023 7,291 70 1.0% 34.3 1,647 (7) -0.4% 3,887 29 0.7% 1,201 42 3.6%

2024 7,353 62 0.9% 34.4 1,637 (9) -0.6% 3,931 44 1.1% 1,224 23 1.9%

2025 7,408 55 0.7% 34.6 1,636 (1) -0.1% 3,952 21 0.5% 1,255 31 2.5%

2026 7,464 55 0.7% 35.0 1,612 (24) -1.4% 3,993 41 1.0% 1,287 33 2.6%

2027 7,516 52 0.7% 35.4 1,595 (18) -1.1% 4,035 41 1.0% 1,311 24 1.8%

2028 7,570 54 0.7% 35.7 1,570 (24) -1.5% 4,084 49 1.2% 1,335 24 1.8%

2029 7,625 55 0.7% 36.0 1,558 (13) -0.8% 4,128 44 1.1% 1,353 18 1.4%

2030 7,687 62 0.8% 36.3 1,556 (2) -0.1% 4,169 41 1.0% 1,370 17 1.2%

2031 7,749 63 0.8% 36.5 1,557 1 0.1% 4,219 50 1.2% 1,376 5 0.4%

2032 7,816 66 0.9% 36.6 1,574 17 1.1% 4,255 36 0.8% 1,383 7 0.5%

2033 7,883 67 0.9% 36.8 1,579 5 0.3% 4,298 43 1.0% 1,395 13 0.9%

2034 7,950 68 0.9% 37.0 1,596 17 1.1% 4,323 25 0.6% 1,415 20 1.4%

2035 8,017 67 0.8% 37.2 1,611 15 0.9% 4,350 27 0.6% 1,435 20 1.4%

2036 8,083 65 0.8% 37.3 1,626 15 1.0% 4,376 26 0.6% 1,456 20 1.4%

2037 8,147 64 0.8% 37.4 1,642 16 1.0% 4,406 30 0.7% 1,472 16 1.1%

2038 8,210 63 0.8% 37.5 1,657 16 1.0% 4,441 35 0.8% 1,482 11 0.7%

2039 8,270 61 0.7% 37.6 1,673 16 0.9% 4,474 33 0.7% 1,494 12 0.8%

2040 8,328 58 0.7% 37.7 1,687 15 0.9% 4,502 28 0.6% 1,512 17 1.2%

2041 8,386 58 0.7% 37.9 1,702 14 0.9% 4,521 19 0.4% 1,538 27 1.8%

2042 8,443 57 0.7% 38.1 1,715 13 0.8% 4,539 18 0.4% 1,566 27 1.8%

2043 8,499 56 0.7% 38.3 1,727 12 0.7% 4,558 20 0.4% 1,591 26 1.6%

2044 8,554 54 0.6% 38.4 1,738 10 0.6% 4,576 17 0.4% 1,620 28 1.8%

2045 8,606 52 0.6% 38.5 1,746 8 0.5% 4,583 7 0.2% 1,657 37 2.3%

2046 8,656 50 0.6% 38.7 1,753 7 0.4% 4,594 11 0.2% 1,690 33 2.0%

2047 8,704 48 0.6% 38.9 1,757 5 0.3% 4,610 16 0.4% 1,717 27 1.6%

2048 8,749 46 0.5% 39.2 1,760 3 0.2% 4,631 21 0.5% 1,738 21 1.2%

2049 8,794 44 0.5% 39.4 1,761 1 0.1% 4,651 20 0.4% 1,761 23 1.3%

2050 8,838 44 0.5% 39.6 1,761 (1) 0.0% 4,669 18 0.4% 1,786 25 1.4%

2051 8,882 44 0.5% 39.8 1,759 (1) -0.1% 4,701 32 0.7% 1,798 12 0.6%

2052 8,927 45 0.5% 40.0 1,757 (2) -0.1% 4,738 37 0.8% 1,804 7 0.4%

2053 8,972 45 0.5% 40.1 1,755 (2) -0.1% 4,790 51 1.1% 1,797 (7) -0.4%

2054 9,019 47 0.5% 40.1 1,753 (2) -0.1% 4,835 45 0.9% 1,797 (0) 0.0%

2055 9,068 49 0.5% 40.2 1,753 (1) 0.0% 4,866 31 0.6% 1,811 14 0.8%

2056 9,120 51 0.6% 40.2 1,753 1 0.0% 4,873 7 0.1% 1,851 39 2.2%

2057 9,174 54 0.6% 40.2 1,756 3 0.1% 4,880 6 0.1% 1,891 41 2.2%

2058 9,230 56 0.6% 40.2 1,760 4 0.2% 4,885 6 0.1% 1,933 42 2.2%

2059 9,288 58 0.6% 40.2 1,766 6 0.3% 4,897 11 0.2% 1,969 36 1.9%

2060 9,348 59 0.6% 40.2 1,773 7 0.4% 4,921 25 0.5% 1,992 23 1.2%

2061 9,408 61 0.7% 40.2 1,781 8 0.5% 4,936 15 0.3% 2,025 32 1.6%

2062 9,469 61 0.6% 40.3 1,791 10 0.5% 4,952 16 0.3% 2,056 32 1.6%

2063 9,530 60 0.6% 40.3 1,801 10 0.6% 4,968 16 0.3% 2,086 30 1.5%

2064 9,589 60 0.6% 40.3 1,812 11 0.6% 4,992 23 0.5% 2,108 22 1.1%

2065 9,649 59 0.6% 40.3 1,824 11 0.6% 5,010 18 0.4% 2,135 26 1.3%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 9

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 14: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Beaver: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Beaver: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

10 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 15: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Beaver Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Beaver 111 67 44 6 502016 Beaver 100 60 40 32 722017 Beaver 103 48 55 14 682018 Beaver 104 50 54 30 852019 Beaver 106 51 55 25 802020 Beaver 107 52 55 12 672021 Beaver 108 47 62 9 712022 Beaver 110 48 62 7 692023 Beaver 111 49 62 8 702024 Beaver 112 50 62 1 622025 Beaver 113 51 61 -7 552026 Beaver 114 52 61 -6 552027 Beaver 115 54 61 -9 522028 Beaver 116 55 61 -7 542029 Beaver 117 56 61 -6 552030 Beaver 118 57 61 1 622031 Beaver 119 58 61 2 632032 Beaver 121 59 61 5 662033 Beaver 122 61 61 6 672034 Beaver 123 62 61 7 682035 Beaver 123 63 60 7 672036 Beaver 123 64 59 7 652037 Beaver 123 66 57 7 642038 Beaver 123 67 56 7 632039 Beaver 122 68 54 6 612040 Beaver 122 69 53 5 582041 Beaver 121 70 51 7 582042 Beaver 121 71 50 7 572043 Beaver 121 72 49 7 562044 Beaver 121 73 48 6 542045 Beaver 121 74 47 5 522046 Beaver 121 74 47 4 502047 Beaver 121 75 46 2 482048 Beaver 122 76 46 0 462049 Beaver 122 76 46 -1 442050 Beaver 122 77 46 -2 442051 Beaver 123 77 46 -2 442052 Beaver 124 77 46 -2 452053 Beaver 125 78 47 -2 452054 Beaver 125 78 48 -1 472055 Beaver 126 78 48 1 492056 Beaver 127 79 49 3 512057 Beaver 128 79 49 5 542058 Beaver 129 79 50 7 562059 Beaver 130 80 50 8 582060 Beaver 131 80 50 9 592061 Beaver 131 81 50 10 612062 Beaver 132 82 50 11 612063 Beaver 133 83 50 10 602064 Beaver 133 84 50 10 602065 Beaver 134 85 49 10 59

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 11

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 16: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Beaver: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

Beaver: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

12 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 17: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Beaver Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 4,047 2,399 2.792016 4,119 72 1.8% 2,429 30 1.3% 2.782017 4,213 94 2.3% 2,470 40 1.7% 2.762018 4,303 91 2.2% 2,521 51 2.1% 2.742019 4,383 79 1.8% 2,567 46 1.8% 2.722020 4,449 67 1.5% 2,609 43 1.7% 2.702021 4,509 59 1.3% 2,647 38 1.5% 2.692022 4,563 55 1.2% 2,683 35 1.3% 2.682023 4,615 52 1.1% 2,713 30 1.1% 2.682024 4,665 49 1.1% 2,760 47 1.7% 2.652025 4,712 47 1.0% 2,806 45 1.6% 2.632026 4,757 45 1.0% 2,850 44 1.6% 2.612027 4,801 44 0.9% 2,891 41 1.4% 2.592028 4,844 43 0.9% 2,926 35 1.2% 2.582029 4,886 42 0.9% 2,948 22 0.7% 2.572030 4,927 41 0.8% 2,975 27 0.9% 2.572031 4,967 40 0.8% 3,018 44 1.5% 2.562032 5,007 40 0.8% 3,051 32 1.1% 2.552033 5,045 39 0.8% 3,091 40 1.3% 2.542034 5,083 38 0.8% 3,126 35 1.1% 2.532035 5,121 37 0.7% 3,161 35 1.1% 2.522036 5,157 37 0.7% 3,181 20 0.6% 2.532037 5,194 36 0.7% 3,213 32 1.0% 2.522038 5,229 36 0.7% 3,247 35 1.1% 2.522039 5,265 35 0.7% 3,293 46 1.4% 2.502040 5,300 35 0.7% 3,329 36 1.1% 2.492041 5,334 35 0.7% 3,359 29 0.9% 2.482042 5,369 34 0.6% 3,376 17 0.5% 2.492043 5,403 34 0.6% 3,399 23 0.7% 2.492044 5,437 34 0.6% 3,430 31 0.9% 2.482045 5,471 34 0.6% 3,456 26 0.8% 2.482046 5,504 33 0.6% 3,482 26 0.7% 2.472047 5,537 33 0.6% 3,508 27 0.8% 2.472048 5,570 33 0.6% 3,531 22 0.6% 2.462049 5,603 33 0.6% 3,542 11 0.3% 2.472050 5,636 33 0.6% 3,552 10 0.3% 2.472051 5,669 33 0.6% 3,576 24 0.7% 2.472052 5,702 33 0.6% 3,607 31 0.9% 2.462053 5,734 33 0.6% 3,639 32 0.9% 2.452054 5,767 33 0.6% 3,669 30 0.8% 2.442055 5,800 33 0.6% 3,697 28 0.8% 2.442056 5,834 33 0.6% 3,713 17 0.4% 2.442057 5,867 33 0.6% 3,737 23 0.6% 2.442058 5,900 33 0.6% 3,762 25 0.7% 2.442059 5,934 33 0.6% 3,796 35 0.9% 2.432060 5,967 34 0.6% 3,827 31 0.8% 2.432061 6,001 34 0.6% 3,864 37 1.0% 2.422062 6,035 34 0.6% 3,892 28 0.7% 2.422063 6,068 34 0.6% 3,924 33 0.8% 2.412064 6,102 34 0.6% 3,966 41 1.1% 2.402065 6,136 34 0.6% 3,995 29 0.7% 2.40

Total HouseholdsTotal Employment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 13

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 18: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

14 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 19: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Box Elder County

Table 1: Box Elder Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 52,971 32.5 12,909 29,209 6,364

2016 54,038 1,067 2.0% 32.8 13,143 234 1.8% 29,760 550 1.9% 6,644 280 4.4%

2017 54,885 847 1.6% 33.0 13,239 95 0.7% 30,175 415 1.4% 6,946 302 4.5%

2018 55,770 885 1.6% 33.4 13,350 111 0.8% 30,579 404 1.3% 7,278 332 4.8%

2019 56,648 878 1.6% 33.6 13,471 121 0.9% 30,973 393 1.3% 7,606 329 4.5%

2020 57,479 831 1.5% 33.9 13,584 113 0.8% 31,377 404 1.3% 7,930 323 4.2%

2021 58,292 813 1.4% 34.1 13,656 72 0.5% 31,745 368 1.2% 8,295 365 4.6%

2022 59,042 750 1.3% 34.4 13,694 38 0.3% 32,067 321 1.0% 8,678 383 4.6%

2023 59,735 693 1.2% 34.7 13,670 (24) -0.2% 32,374 307 1.0% 9,080 401 4.6%

2024 60,380 645 1.1% 35.0 13,593 (77) -0.6% 32,731 357 1.1% 9,431 351 3.9%

2025 60,984 604 1.0% 35.3 13,481 (112) -0.8% 33,072 342 1.0% 9,787 356 3.8%

2026 61,622 638 1.0% 35.6 13,382 (98) -0.7% 33,448 375 1.1% 10,118 331 3.4%

2027 62,258 636 1.0% 35.9 13,296 (86) -0.6% 33,819 371 1.1% 10,430 312 3.1%

2028 62,912 654 1.1% 36.2 13,236 (61) -0.5% 34,223 404 1.2% 10,691 261 2.5%

2029 63,581 669 1.1% 36.4 13,226 (9) -0.1% 34,617 394 1.2% 10,919 228 2.1%

2030 64,263 682 1.1% 36.6 13,278 51 0.4% 35,002 386 1.1% 11,101 183 1.7%

2031 64,940 677 1.1% 36.8 13,327 50 0.4% 35,418 416 1.2% 11,247 145 1.3%

2032 65,623 683 1.1% 37.0 13,388 60 0.5% 35,808 390 1.1% 11,413 166 1.5%

2033 66,307 684 1.0% 37.1 13,420 33 0.2% 36,221 413 1.2% 11,586 173 1.5%

2034 66,988 681 1.0% 37.3 13,487 66 0.5% 36,625 404 1.1% 11,736 150 1.3%

2035 67,664 677 1.0% 37.4 13,566 79 0.6% 36,993 368 1.0% 11,915 178 1.5%

2036 68,338 673 1.0% 37.5 13,662 96 0.7% 37,345 353 1.0% 12,097 182 1.5%

2037 69,015 678 1.0% 37.7 13,774 112 0.8% 37,706 361 1.0% 12,266 169 1.4%

2038 69,696 680 1.0% 37.8 13,901 127 0.9% 38,062 355 0.9% 12,437 171 1.4%

2039 70,380 684 1.0% 37.9 14,039 138 1.0% 38,374 313 0.8% 12,649 212 1.7%

2040 71,065 686 1.0% 38.0 14,184 145 1.0% 38,633 259 0.7% 12,914 265 2.1%

2041 71,753 688 1.0% 38.1 14,335 151 1.1% 38,881 248 0.6% 13,192 278 2.2%

2042 72,440 686 1.0% 38.3 14,487 152 1.1% 39,084 202 0.5% 13,518 325 2.5%

2043 73,119 680 0.9% 38.4 14,635 149 1.0% 39,228 145 0.4% 13,901 383 2.8%

2044 73,787 668 0.9% 38.6 14,777 142 1.0% 39,409 181 0.5% 14,244 343 2.5%

2045 74,440 653 0.9% 38.9 14,907 130 0.9% 39,590 181 0.5% 14,586 342 2.4%

2046 75,076 636 0.9% 39.1 15,023 116 0.8% 39,749 159 0.4% 14,947 361 2.5%

2047 75,694 618 0.8% 39.3 15,122 99 0.7% 39,918 169 0.4% 15,296 349 2.3%

2048 76,299 604 0.8% 39.5 15,204 82 0.5% 40,139 221 0.6% 15,593 297 1.9%

2049 76,892 593 0.8% 39.7 15,269 65 0.4% 40,371 232 0.6% 15,882 289 1.9%

2050 77,472 581 0.8% 39.9 15,319 50 0.3% 40,594 223 0.6% 16,179 297 1.9%

2051 78,053 580 0.7% 40.1 15,358 39 0.3% 40,885 291 0.7% 16,412 233 1.4%

2052 78,628 575 0.7% 40.2 15,386 29 0.2% 41,189 304 0.7% 16,632 220 1.3%

2053 79,197 570 0.7% 40.3 15,407 21 0.1% 41,484 295 0.7% 16,858 227 1.4%

2054 79,765 567 0.7% 40.3 15,424 17 0.1% 41,757 273 0.7% 17,104 246 1.5%

2055 80,334 569 0.7% 40.4 15,439 15 0.1% 41,983 225 0.5% 17,395 291 1.7%

2056 80,906 572 0.7% 40.5 15,456 17 0.1% 42,198 215 0.5% 17,694 298 1.7%

2057 81,483 577 0.7% 40.6 15,476 21 0.1% 42,432 234 0.6% 17,971 277 1.6%

2058 82,067 584 0.7% 40.7 15,504 27 0.2% 42,648 216 0.5% 18,263 292 1.6%

2059 82,657 590 0.7% 40.8 15,539 36 0.2% 42,913 265 0.6% 18,502 239 1.3%

2060 83,248 591 0.7% 40.8 15,585 45 0.3% 43,203 290 0.7% 18,707 205 1.1%

2061 83,842 595 0.7% 40.9 15,641 56 0.4% 43,507 304 0.7% 18,892 185 1.0%

2062 84,440 598 0.7% 40.9 15,708 67 0.4% 43,726 219 0.5% 19,155 263 1.4%

2063 85,037 597 0.7% 40.9 15,786 78 0.5% 44,005 279 0.6% 19,349 194 1.0%

2064 85,628 592 0.7% 40.9 15,874 88 0.6% 44,275 271 0.6% 19,540 191 1.0%

2065 86,218 590 0.7% 41.0 15,971 97 0.6% 44,532 257 0.6% 19,737 197 1.0%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 15

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 20: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Box Elder: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Box Elder: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

16 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 21: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Box Elder Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Box Elder 902 407 495 196 6912016 Box Elder 879 359 520 547 1,0672017 Box Elder 882 368 514 333 8472018 Box Elder 884 382 502 383 8852019 Box Elder 886 396 490 388 8782020 Box Elder 889 411 478 352 8312021 Box Elder 893 370 523 290 8132022 Box Elder 897 381 516 234 7502023 Box Elder 901 392 509 184 6932024 Box Elder 907 402 505 140 6452025 Box Elder 915 412 502 102 6042026 Box Elder 924 422 501 136 6382027 Box Elder 936 432 503 133 6362028 Box Elder 948 442 506 147 6542029 Box Elder 962 452 510 159 6692030 Box Elder 976 462 514 168 6822031 Box Elder 990 472 518 159 6772032 Box Elder 1,002 483 519 164 6832033 Box Elder 1,012 494 518 166 6842034 Box Elder 1,021 505 516 165 6812035 Box Elder 1,027 516 511 166 6772036 Box Elder 1,032 528 504 169 6732037 Box Elder 1,036 539 496 181 6782038 Box Elder 1,038 551 487 193 6802039 Box Elder 1,039 563 477 207 6842040 Box Elder 1,040 575 465 220 6862041 Box Elder 1,040 587 453 235 6882042 Box Elder 1,039 599 441 246 6862043 Box Elder 1,039 610 428 251 6802044 Box Elder 1,038 622 416 251 6682045 Box Elder 1,039 633 405 248 6532046 Box Elder 1,039 644 395 240 6362047 Box Elder 1,041 654 386 232 6182048 Box Elder 1,043 664 379 226 6042049 Box Elder 1,046 673 373 220 5932050 Box Elder 1,050 682 369 212 5812051 Box Elder 1,056 690 366 214 5802052 Box Elder 1,062 697 365 210 5752053 Box Elder 1,070 705 365 204 5702054 Box Elder 1,078 711 367 200 5672055 Box Elder 1,088 718 370 199 5692056 Box Elder 1,097 724 374 199 5722057 Box Elder 1,108 730 377 200 5772058 Box Elder 1,118 737 381 203 5842059 Box Elder 1,128 744 384 206 5902060 Box Elder 1,138 751 386 205 5912061 Box Elder 1,147 759 387 207 5952062 Box Elder 1,156 768 387 211 5982063 Box Elder 1,163 778 385 211 5972064 Box Elder 1,171 789 382 210 5922065 Box Elder 1,177 800 376 213 590

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 17

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 22: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Box Elder: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Box Elder: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

18 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 23: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Box Elder Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 26,715 17,711 2.972016 27,525 810 3.0% 18,147 437 2.5% 2.962017 28,222 697 2.5% 18,535 388 2.1% 2.942018 28,848 626 2.2% 18,950 415 2.2% 2.922019 29,428 580 2.0% 19,352 401 2.1% 2.912020 29,959 530 1.8% 19,739 387 2.0% 2.892021 30,443 484 1.6% 20,154 415 2.1% 2.872022 30,902 459 1.5% 20,534 379 1.9% 2.852023 31,346 444 1.4% 20,897 363 1.8% 2.842024 31,779 432 1.4% 21,241 344 1.6% 2.822025 32,201 423 1.3% 21,572 331 1.6% 2.802026 32,616 415 1.3% 21,917 345 1.6% 2.792027 33,025 408 1.3% 22,262 345 1.6% 2.772028 33,426 402 1.2% 22,607 345 1.5% 2.762029 33,821 395 1.2% 22,945 338 1.5% 2.752030 34,210 389 1.1% 23,295 350 1.5% 2.742031 34,591 381 1.1% 23,648 353 1.5% 2.722032 34,965 374 1.1% 23,998 351 1.5% 2.712033 35,331 366 1.0% 24,343 345 1.4% 2.702034 35,690 359 1.0% 24,711 368 1.5% 2.692035 36,043 353 1.0% 25,058 347 1.4% 2.682036 36,391 348 1.0% 25,404 346 1.4% 2.672037 36,734 344 0.9% 25,751 347 1.4% 2.662038 37,075 341 0.9% 26,090 339 1.3% 2.652039 37,414 339 0.9% 26,406 316 1.2% 2.642040 37,751 337 0.9% 26,747 341 1.3% 2.632041 38,088 337 0.9% 27,067 320 1.2% 2.632042 38,424 336 0.9% 27,376 309 1.1% 2.622043 38,760 336 0.9% 27,682 306 1.1% 2.622044 39,096 335 0.9% 27,971 290 1.0% 2.612045 39,430 335 0.9% 28,249 278 1.0% 2.612046 39,764 334 0.8% 28,536 286 1.0% 2.602047 40,097 333 0.8% 28,787 251 0.9% 2.602048 40,429 332 0.8% 29,037 250 0.9% 2.602049 40,761 332 0.8% 29,274 237 0.8% 2.602050 41,092 331 0.8% 29,542 268 0.9% 2.592051 41,422 331 0.8% 29,796 254 0.9% 2.592052 41,752 330 0.8% 30,056 261 0.9% 2.592053 42,082 330 0.8% 30,320 263 0.9% 2.582054 42,411 329 0.8% 30,579 260 0.9% 2.582055 42,740 329 0.8% 30,865 285 0.9% 2.572056 43,069 329 0.8% 31,148 283 0.9% 2.572057 43,397 328 0.8% 31,460 312 1.0% 2.562058 43,725 328 0.8% 31,759 299 0.9% 2.552059 44,052 327 0.7% 32,084 325 1.0% 2.552060 44,378 326 0.7% 32,408 324 1.0% 2.542061 44,703 325 0.7% 32,725 317 1.0% 2.532062 45,027 324 0.7% 33,016 291 0.9% 2.532063 45,350 323 0.7% 33,312 296 0.9% 2.522064 45,671 321 0.7% 33,568 256 0.8% 2.522065 45,989 319 0.7% 33,826 259 0.8% 2.52

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 19

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 24: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

20 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 25: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Cache County

Table 1: Cache Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 121,855 25.2 26,652 72,715 10,578

2016 123,907 2,052 1.7% 25.3 27,156 505 1.9% 73,921 1,206 1.7% 11,074 496 4.7%

2017 126,268 2,361 1.9% 25.4 27,515 358 1.3% 75,321 1,400 1.9% 11,715 641 5.8%

2018 128,685 2,417 1.9% 25.5 27,900 386 1.4% 76,714 1,393 1.8% 12,403 688 5.9%

2019 131,141 2,456 1.9% 25.6 28,217 317 1.1% 78,102 1,389 1.8% 13,120 717 5.8%

2020 133,601 2,459 1.9% 25.8 28,474 257 0.9% 79,530 1,428 1.8% 13,804 684 5.2%

2021 136,132 2,531 1.9% 25.9 28,616 142 0.5% 81,003 1,473 1.9% 14,521 717 5.2%

2022 138,685 2,553 1.9% 26.0 28,648 32 0.1% 82,478 1,474 1.8% 15,224 702 4.8%

2023 141,251 2,566 1.9% 26.2 28,675 27 0.1% 83,996 1,518 1.8% 15,887 663 4.4%

2024 143,811 2,560 1.8% 26.3 28,827 152 0.5% 85,392 1,397 1.7% 16,541 654 4.1%

2025 146,338 2,527 1.8% 26.4 28,997 170 0.6% 86,769 1,376 1.6% 17,170 629 3.8%

2026 148,818 2,481 1.7% 26.5 29,197 199 0.7% 88,123 1,354 1.6% 17,753 583 3.4%

2027 151,276 2,457 1.7% 26.6 29,401 204 0.7% 89,487 1,364 1.5% 18,305 552 3.1%

2028 153,771 2,496 1.6% 26.7 29,601 200 0.7% 90,943 1,456 1.6% 18,815 510 2.8%

2029 156,278 2,507 1.6% 26.9 29,807 206 0.7% 92,469 1,527 1.7% 19,269 454 2.4%

2030 158,815 2,536 1.6% 27.0 30,221 414 1.4% 93,875 1,406 1.5% 19,684 415 2.2%

2031 161,376 2,561 1.6% 27.1 30,637 416 1.4% 95,349 1,474 1.6% 20,072 388 2.0%

2032 163,978 2,601 1.6% 27.2 31,140 503 1.6% 96,785 1,436 1.5% 20,460 388 1.9%

2033 166,631 2,654 1.6% 27.3 31,710 569 1.8% 98,256 1,471 1.5% 20,810 350 1.7%

2034 169,303 2,672 1.6% 27.4 32,373 664 2.1% 99,592 1,336 1.4% 21,233 423 2.0%

2035 171,969 2,666 1.6% 27.5 33,150 777 2.4% 100,808 1,216 1.2% 21,678 446 2.1%

2036 174,610 2,641 1.5% 27.6 33,930 780 2.4% 102,000 1,192 1.2% 22,142 464 2.1%

2037 177,208 2,598 1.5% 27.6 34,698 768 2.3% 103,231 1,231 1.2% 22,559 417 1.9%

2038 179,753 2,545 1.4% 27.8 35,439 741 2.1% 104,481 1,249 1.2% 22,956 397 1.8%

2039 182,230 2,477 1.4% 27.9 36,145 705 2.0% 105,715 1,235 1.2% 23,365 409 1.8%

2040 184,635 2,405 1.3% 27.9 36,808 663 1.8% 106,896 1,180 1.1% 23,827 462 2.0%

2041 186,958 2,323 1.3% 28.0 37,421 613 1.7% 108,003 1,108 1.0% 24,362 534 2.2%

2042 189,190 2,232 1.2% 28.1 37,980 559 1.5% 109,063 1,059 1.0% 24,937 576 2.4%

2043 191,329 2,139 1.1% 28.2 38,477 497 1.3% 110,134 1,071 1.0% 25,494 557 2.2%

2044 193,375 2,046 1.1% 28.2 38,908 431 1.1% 111,290 1,156 1.0% 25,955 461 1.8%

2045 195,325 1,951 1.0% 28.3 39,265 357 0.9% 112,595 1,305 1.2% 26,254 299 1.2%

2046 197,193 1,868 1.0% 28.3 39,547 282 0.7% 113,949 1,354 1.2% 26,495 242 0.9%

2047 198,989 1,796 0.9% 28.3 39,758 211 0.5% 115,385 1,437 1.3% 26,644 149 0.6%

2048 200,727 1,738 0.9% 28.3 39,904 146 0.4% 116,867 1,482 1.3% 26,739 95 0.4%

2049 202,426 1,699 0.8% 28.3 39,991 88 0.2% 118,370 1,503 1.3% 26,809 70 0.3%

2050 204,114 1,689 0.8% 28.4 40,033 41 0.1% 119,883 1,513 1.3% 26,878 70 0.3%

2051 205,814 1,700 0.8% 28.4 40,045 12 0.0% 121,474 1,591 1.3% 26,880 1 0.0%

2052 207,531 1,717 0.8% 28.5 40,034 (10) 0.0% 123,037 1,563 1.3% 26,920 40 0.1%

2053 209,277 1,746 0.8% 28.6 40,018 (16) 0.0% 124,558 1,521 1.2% 27,011 91 0.3%

2054 211,065 1,788 0.9% 28.6 40,008 (10) 0.0% 126,011 1,453 1.2% 27,183 172 0.6%

2055 212,908 1,843 0.9% 28.7 40,016 9 0.0% 127,352 1,341 1.1% 27,484 300 1.1%

2056 214,817 1,909 0.9% 28.8 40,057 41 0.1% 128,599 1,247 1.0% 27,897 414 1.5%

2057 216,799 1,983 0.9% 28.9 40,141 84 0.2% 129,771 1,172 0.9% 28,404 507 1.8%

2058 218,852 2,052 0.9% 29.0 40,277 136 0.3% 131,036 1,264 1.0% 28,830 427 1.5%

2059 220,973 2,121 1.0% 29.1 40,471 194 0.5% 132,273 1,238 0.9% 29,293 463 1.6%

2060 223,154 2,181 1.0% 29.2 40,724 253 0.6% 133,506 1,233 0.9% 29,765 472 1.6%

2061 225,387 2,233 1.0% 29.3 41,033 310 0.8% 134,597 1,091 0.8% 30,380 615 2.1%

2062 227,674 2,288 1.0% 29.3 41,401 368 0.9% 135,582 985 0.7% 31,105 725 2.4%

2063 230,003 2,329 1.0% 29.4 41,819 418 1.0% 136,665 1,084 0.8% 31,734 629 2.0%

2064 232,363 2,360 1.0% 29.5 42,281 461 1.1% 137,743 1,078 0.8% 32,371 637 2.0%

2065 234,744 2,382 1.0% 29.6 42,776 495 1.2% 138,780 1,037 0.8% 33,051 680 2.1%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 21

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 26: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Cache: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Cache: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

22 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 27: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Cache Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Cache 2,344 515 1,829 1,154 2,9832016 Cache 2,331 575 1,756 296 2,0522017 Cache 2,246 640 1,606 755 2,3612018 Cache 2,308 663 1,645 772 2,4172019 Cache 2,381 689 1,692 764 2,4562020 Cache 2,455 714 1,741 718 2,4592021 Cache 2,534 645 1,889 642 2,5312022 Cache 2,609 665 1,944 609 2,5532023 Cache 2,688 686 2,002 564 2,5662024 Cache 2,764 706 2,058 502 2,5602025 Cache 2,839 726 2,113 414 2,5272026 Cache 2,909 746 2,164 317 2,4812027 Cache 2,977 766 2,212 246 2,4572028 Cache 3,040 786 2,254 241 2,4962029 Cache 3,099 806 2,293 214 2,5072030 Cache 3,155 828 2,327 209 2,5362031 Cache 3,207 850 2,357 204 2,5612032 Cache 3,259 872 2,386 215 2,6012033 Cache 3,305 896 2,409 244 2,6542034 Cache 3,351 920 2,431 241 2,6722035 Cache 3,390 945 2,446 221 2,6662036 Cache 3,425 969 2,456 185 2,6412037 Cache 3,455 994 2,461 136 2,5982038 Cache 3,480 1,018 2,462 83 2,5452039 Cache 3,496 1,043 2,453 24 2,4772040 Cache 3,507 1,067 2,440 -35 2,4052041 Cache 3,512 1,090 2,421 -99 2,3232042 Cache 3,514 1,113 2,401 -169 2,2322043 Cache 3,516 1,135 2,381 -242 2,1392044 Cache 3,516 1,157 2,360 -314 2,0462045 Cache 3,521 1,177 2,344 -393 1,9512046 Cache 3,528 1,196 2,333 -465 1,8682047 Cache 3,540 1,213 2,327 -532 1,7962048 Cache 3,558 1,230 2,328 -591 1,7382049 Cache 3,581 1,245 2,336 -637 1,6992050 Cache 3,609 1,259 2,350 -661 1,6892051 Cache 3,642 1,271 2,371 -671 1,7002052 Cache 3,679 1,283 2,396 -679 1,7172053 Cache 3,721 1,294 2,427 -681 1,7462054 Cache 3,764 1,303 2,461 -673 1,7882055 Cache 3,810 1,313 2,497 -654 1,8432056 Cache 3,856 1,321 2,535 -625 1,9092057 Cache 3,902 1,329 2,572 -590 1,9832058 Cache 3,947 1,338 2,609 -557 2,0522059 Cache 3,991 1,346 2,645 -524 2,1212060 Cache 4,033 1,355 2,678 -497 2,1812061 Cache 4,073 1,365 2,708 -476 2,2332062 Cache 4,111 1,375 2,736 -448 2,2882063 Cache 4,145 1,386 2,759 -431 2,3292064 Cache 4,176 1,397 2,779 -419 2,3602065 Cache 4,203 1,408 2,795 -414 2,382

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 23

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 28: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Cache: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Cache: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

24 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 29: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Cache Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 73,119 37,645 3.142016 75,401 2,282 3.1% 38,360 715 1.9% 3.132017 77,347 1,947 2.6% 39,269 908 2.4% 3.122018 79,085 1,738 2.2% 40,258 990 2.5% 3.102019 80,721 1,636 2.1% 41,281 1,023 2.5% 3.082020 82,269 1,549 1.9% 42,302 1,021 2.5% 3.062021 83,741 1,472 1.8% 43,357 1,055 2.5% 3.042022 85,173 1,431 1.7% 44,412 1,055 2.4% 3.032023 86,579 1,406 1.7% 45,469 1,057 2.4% 3.012024 87,964 1,386 1.6% 46,510 1,041 2.3% 3.002025 89,331 1,367 1.6% 47,540 1,030 2.2% 2.992026 90,681 1,350 1.5% 48,555 1,014 2.1% 2.972027 92,016 1,335 1.5% 49,542 987 2.0% 2.962028 93,334 1,318 1.4% 50,538 996 2.0% 2.962029 94,636 1,302 1.4% 51,527 989 2.0% 2.952030 95,922 1,286 1.4% 52,523 996 1.9% 2.942031 97,190 1,268 1.3% 53,533 1,010 1.9% 2.932032 98,439 1,249 1.3% 54,544 1,011 1.9% 2.922033 99,667 1,228 1.2% 55,571 1,027 1.9% 2.922034 100,876 1,209 1.2% 56,607 1,035 1.9% 2.912035 102,066 1,191 1.2% 57,627 1,021 1.8% 2.902036 103,241 1,174 1.2% 58,647 1,020 1.8% 2.902037 104,401 1,161 1.1% 59,644 997 1.7% 2.892038 105,551 1,150 1.1% 60,625 981 1.6% 2.892039 106,693 1,142 1.1% 61,583 957 1.6% 2.882040 107,828 1,136 1.1% 62,489 907 1.5% 2.882041 108,959 1,131 1.0% 63,366 877 1.4% 2.872042 110,085 1,126 1.0% 64,188 822 1.3% 2.872043 111,206 1,122 1.0% 64,948 760 1.2% 2.872044 112,323 1,117 1.0% 65,672 724 1.1% 2.872045 113,435 1,111 1.0% 66,376 704 1.1% 2.872046 114,540 1,106 1.0% 67,069 693 1.0% 2.862047 115,640 1,100 1.0% 67,737 668 1.0% 2.862048 116,734 1,094 0.9% 68,395 659 1.0% 2.862049 117,822 1,088 0.9% 69,077 682 1.0% 2.852050 118,905 1,083 0.9% 69,769 692 1.0% 2.852051 119,982 1,077 0.9% 70,507 738 1.1% 2.842052 121,053 1,071 0.9% 71,277 771 1.1% 2.842053 122,117 1,065 0.9% 72,097 819 1.1% 2.832054 123,175 1,058 0.9% 72,942 845 1.2% 2.822055 124,227 1,051 0.9% 73,831 889 1.2% 2.812056 125,271 1,044 0.8% 74,748 917 1.2% 2.802057 126,308 1,037 0.8% 75,673 925 1.2% 2.792058 127,336 1,029 0.8% 76,600 927 1.2% 2.782059 128,356 1,020 0.8% 77,545 945 1.2% 2.782060 129,367 1,011 0.8% 78,505 959 1.2% 2.772061 130,368 1,001 0.8% 79,467 962 1.2% 2.772062 131,357 989 0.8% 80,403 936 1.2% 2.762063 132,334 977 0.7% 81,316 913 1.1% 2.762064 133,298 964 0.7% 82,249 933 1.1% 2.762065 134,247 949 0.7% 83,168 919 1.1% 2.75

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 25

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 30: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

26 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 31: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Carbon County

Table 1: Carbon Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 21,164 35.6 4,179 12,214 3,235

2016 21,188 24 0.1% 35.9 4,229 50 1.2% 12,159 (55) -0.5% 3,327 91 2.8%

2017 21,602 413 2.0% 36.1 4,350 120 2.8% 12,332 174 1.4% 3,443 117 3.5%

2018 22,035 434 2.0% 36.3 4,484 135 3.1% 12,505 173 1.4% 3,567 124 3.6%

2019 22,444 408 1.9% 36.5 4,548 64 1.4% 12,647 142 1.1% 3,717 149 4.2%

2020 22,806 363 1.6% 36.8 4,605 57 1.3% 12,746 99 0.8% 3,872 155 4.2%

2021 23,162 356 1.6% 37.0 4,647 42 0.9% 12,850 105 0.8% 4,031 159 4.1%

2022 23,496 334 1.4% 37.3 4,702 56 1.2% 12,945 95 0.7% 4,206 175 4.3%

2023 23,800 304 1.3% 37.5 4,742 39 0.8% 13,059 114 0.9% 4,356 151 3.6%

2024 24,083 283 1.2% 37.8 4,770 28 0.6% 13,171 112 0.9% 4,498 142 3.3%

2025 24,343 260 1.1% 38.1 4,755 (14) -0.3% 13,318 147 1.1% 4,624 125 2.8%

2026 24,620 277 1.1% 38.4 4,759 3 0.1% 13,465 147 1.1% 4,742 118 2.5%

2027 24,884 265 1.1% 38.7 4,758 (1) 0.0% 13,619 154 1.1% 4,843 101 2.1%

2028 25,137 253 1.0% 39.0 4,769 11 0.2% 13,755 136 1.0% 4,935 93 1.9%

2029 25,379 241 1.0% 39.3 4,764 (5) -0.1% 13,925 170 1.2% 4,995 60 1.2%

2030 25,628 249 1.0% 39.6 4,757 (7) -0.1% 14,111 186 1.3% 5,045 50 1.0%

2031 25,882 254 1.0% 39.8 4,750 (7) -0.1% 14,324 213 1.5% 5,070 25 0.5%

2032 26,141 260 1.0% 39.9 4,799 49 1.0% 14,496 172 1.2% 5,087 17 0.3%

2033 26,394 252 1.0% 39.9 4,855 56 1.2% 14,654 158 1.1% 5,106 19 0.4%

2034 26,636 242 0.9% 39.9 4,913 59 1.2% 14,805 151 1.0% 5,121 14 0.3%

2035 26,870 234 0.9% 39.9 4,936 22 0.5% 14,965 160 1.1% 5,155 34 0.7%

2036 27,096 226 0.8% 40.0 4,955 19 0.4% 15,098 132 0.9% 5,214 59 1.2%

2037 27,315 219 0.8% 40.0 4,977 22 0.4% 15,242 145 1.0% 5,254 40 0.8%

2038 27,531 216 0.8% 40.0 5,003 26 0.5% 15,380 138 0.9% 5,296 42 0.8%

2039 27,745 214 0.8% 40.0 5,035 32 0.6% 15,513 132 0.9% 5,338 42 0.8%

2040 27,961 216 0.8% 40.0 5,073 38 0.8% 15,621 109 0.7% 5,401 63 1.2%

2041 28,180 219 0.8% 40.0 5,116 42 0.8% 15,729 107 0.7% 5,464 63 1.2%

2042 28,403 222 0.8% 39.9 5,159 44 0.9% 15,807 78 0.5% 5,558 93 1.7%

2043 28,625 222 0.8% 39.9 5,203 44 0.9% 15,874 67 0.4% 5,661 104 1.9%

2044 28,848 223 0.8% 40.0 5,247 44 0.8% 15,921 47 0.3% 5,786 125 2.2%

2045 29,069 221 0.8% 40.1 5,290 43 0.8% 15,960 39 0.2% 5,919 133 2.3%

2046 29,290 221 0.8% 40.2 5,332 41 0.8% 15,988 28 0.2% 6,065 146 2.5%

2047 29,508 219 0.7% 40.3 5,370 38 0.7% 16,017 29 0.2% 6,211 146 2.4%

2048 29,726 217 0.7% 40.5 5,404 34 0.6% 16,042 25 0.2% 6,363 152 2.4%

2049 29,943 217 0.7% 40.7 5,435 31 0.6% 16,092 51 0.3% 6,492 129 2.0%

2050 30,159 217 0.7% 40.8 5,463 28 0.5% 16,167 75 0.5% 6,599 107 1.6%

2051 30,378 219 0.7% 40.9 5,490 27 0.5% 16,243 76 0.5% 6,707 108 1.6%

2052 30,597 219 0.7% 41.0 5,514 24 0.4% 16,309 65 0.4% 6,828 121 1.8%

2053 30,813 216 0.7% 41.2 5,534 20 0.4% 16,341 32 0.2% 6,982 154 2.3%

2054 31,028 214 0.7% 41.3 5,552 19 0.3% 16,384 42 0.3% 7,126 144 2.1%

2055 31,240 212 0.7% 41.4 5,570 18 0.3% 16,412 28 0.2% 7,281 155 2.2%

2056 31,449 210 0.7% 41.4 5,588 18 0.3% 16,466 54 0.3% 7,408 127 1.7%

2057 31,655 206 0.7% 41.4 5,605 17 0.3% 16,557 92 0.6% 7,495 86 1.2%

2058 31,858 203 0.6% 41.4 5,620 16 0.3% 16,675 118 0.7% 7,552 58 0.8%

2059 32,055 197 0.6% 41.5 5,635 14 0.3% 16,794 119 0.7% 7,605 52 0.7%

2060 32,249 194 0.6% 41.6 5,650 15 0.3% 16,926 131 0.8% 7,641 37 0.5%

2061 32,439 190 0.6% 41.7 5,665 15 0.3% 17,043 117 0.7% 7,688 47 0.6%

2062 32,624 185 0.6% 41.8 5,680 16 0.3% 17,152 109 0.6% 7,738 50 0.6%

2063 32,803 179 0.5% 41.9 5,697 16 0.3% 17,268 116 0.7% 7,774 37 0.5%

2064 32,977 174 0.5% 41.9 5,714 17 0.3% 17,376 108 0.6% 7,814 39 0.5%

2065 33,144 168 0.5% 42.0 5,732 18 0.3% 17,480 104 0.6% 7,851 37 0.5%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 27

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 32: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Carbon: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Carbon: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

28 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 33: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Carbon Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Carbon 266 229 37 -74 -372016 Carbon 263 230 33 -9 242017 Carbon 303 176 127 286 4132018 Carbon 305 180 125 309 4342019 Carbon 306 184 122 286 4082020 Carbon 308 188 120 243 3632021 Carbon 308 168 141 215 3562022 Carbon 309 171 138 195 3342023 Carbon 311 175 136 168 3042024 Carbon 313 178 135 148 2832025 Carbon 315 182 133 127 2602026 Carbon 318 186 132 144 2772027 Carbon 322 190 132 133 2652028 Carbon 326 194 132 120 2532029 Carbon 331 198 133 109 2412030 Carbon 336 203 133 116 2492031 Carbon 340 207 133 121 2542032 Carbon 343 212 131 128 2602033 Carbon 347 217 130 122 2522034 Carbon 350 222 128 114 2422035 Carbon 353 227 127 108 2342036 Carbon 355 231 123 103 2262037 Carbon 356 236 120 99 2192038 Carbon 357 241 116 100 2162039 Carbon 358 246 112 102 2142040 Carbon 360 250 109 107 2162041 Carbon 361 254 107 113 2192042 Carbon 362 258 104 119 2222043 Carbon 363 262 101 121 2222044 Carbon 364 266 98 124 2232045 Carbon 365 269 96 125 2212046 Carbon 366 271 95 126 2212047 Carbon 367 274 93 125 2192048 Carbon 368 276 92 125 2172049 Carbon 370 278 92 125 2172050 Carbon 371 279 92 124 2172051 Carbon 373 280 93 126 2192052 Carbon 375 281 94 125 2192053 Carbon 377 282 95 121 2162054 Carbon 380 283 97 118 2142055 Carbon 382 284 98 114 2122056 Carbon 385 285 100 110 2102057 Carbon 387 286 101 105 2062058 Carbon 390 288 102 101 2032059 Carbon 392 290 102 95 1972060 Carbon 395 292 102 92 1942061 Carbon 397 295 102 88 1902062 Carbon 399 298 101 84 1852063 Carbon 401 302 99 80 1792064 Carbon 402 306 96 78 1742065 Carbon 404 311 93 75 168

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 29

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 34: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Carbon: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

Carbon: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

30 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 35: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Carbon Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 11,266 8,114 2.542016 11,580 314 2.8% 8,150 36 0.4% 2.532017 11,950 371 3.2% 8,324 174 2.1% 2.532018 12,300 350 2.9% 8,492 168 2.0% 2.532019 12,609 309 2.5% 8,669 177 2.1% 2.532020 12,875 266 2.1% 8,816 147 1.7% 2.522021 13,116 241 1.9% 8,976 161 1.8% 2.522022 13,343 226 1.7% 9,138 162 1.8% 2.512023 13,560 217 1.6% 9,286 148 1.6% 2.502024 13,770 210 1.5% 9,431 145 1.6% 2.492025 13,974 204 1.5% 9,558 127 1.3% 2.482026 14,173 199 1.4% 9,682 124 1.3% 2.482027 14,368 195 1.4% 9,817 135 1.4% 2.472028 14,559 191 1.3% 9,945 129 1.3% 2.472029 14,747 188 1.3% 10,071 126 1.3% 2.462030 14,932 185 1.3% 10,204 133 1.3% 2.452031 15,113 181 1.2% 10,332 128 1.3% 2.442032 15,290 177 1.2% 10,459 126 1.2% 2.442033 15,463 173 1.1% 10,581 123 1.2% 2.432034 15,631 169 1.1% 10,700 119 1.1% 2.432035 15,796 164 1.1% 10,824 124 1.2% 2.422036 15,956 160 1.0% 10,937 113 1.0% 2.422037 16,113 157 1.0% 11,049 112 1.0% 2.412038 16,267 154 1.0% 11,154 105 0.9% 2.412039 16,418 151 0.9% 11,264 110 1.0% 2.402040 16,567 149 0.9% 11,371 107 1.0% 2.402041 16,714 147 0.9% 11,481 110 1.0% 2.392042 16,860 145 0.9% 11,584 103 0.9% 2.392043 17,003 144 0.9% 11,688 104 0.9% 2.392044 17,145 142 0.8% 11,786 98 0.8% 2.392045 17,285 140 0.8% 11,893 107 0.9% 2.382046 17,423 138 0.8% 11,991 98 0.8% 2.382047 17,560 137 0.8% 12,100 109 0.9% 2.382048 17,696 136 0.8% 12,197 96 0.8% 2.382049 17,831 135 0.8% 12,292 95 0.8% 2.382050 17,965 134 0.8% 12,387 96 0.8% 2.372051 18,099 134 0.7% 12,489 102 0.8% 2.372052 18,232 133 0.7% 12,588 98 0.8% 2.372053 18,365 133 0.7% 12,694 106 0.8% 2.372054 18,497 132 0.7% 12,788 94 0.7% 2.372055 18,629 132 0.7% 12,889 101 0.8% 2.362056 18,760 132 0.7% 12,996 107 0.8% 2.362057 18,892 131 0.7% 13,096 100 0.8% 2.362058 19,023 131 0.7% 13,206 110 0.8% 2.352059 19,154 131 0.7% 13,314 108 0.8% 2.352060 19,284 130 0.7% 13,413 99 0.7% 2.342061 19,414 130 0.7% 13,520 107 0.8% 2.342062 19,542 129 0.7% 13,621 101 0.7% 2.342063 19,670 128 0.7% 13,731 111 0.8% 2.332064 19,797 127 0.6% 13,834 103 0.7% 2.332065 19,923 125 0.6% 13,928 93 0.7% 2.32

Total HouseholdsTotal Employment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 31

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 36: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

32 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 37: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Daggett County

Table 1: Daggett Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 1,113 42.4 204 620 233

2016 1,103 (10) -0.9% 43.2 202 (2) -1.2% 602 (17) -2.8% 250 17 7.4%

2017 1,119 17 1.5% 42.9 201 (1) -0.3% 600 (2) -0.3% 264 13 5.3%

2018 1,136 16 1.5% 42.8 207 5 2.6% 603 2 0.4% 272 8 3.1%

2019 1,150 15 1.3% 42.5 206 (1) -0.4% 603 0 0.0% 281 9 3.4%

2020 1,164 14 1.2% 42.6 206 1 0.3% 608 6 0.9% 285 4 1.2%

2021 1,179 15 1.3% 42.9 198 (9) -4.2% 620 12 2.0% 287 3 0.9%

2022 1,194 15 1.3% 43.0 198 0 0.0% 628 8 1.2% 292 5 1.6%

2023 1,207 13 1.1% 43.1 200 2 1.2% 636 8 1.3% 292 1 0.2%

2024 1,219 13 1.0% 43.1 203 3 1.5% 639 3 0.4% 298 5 1.9%

2025 1,232 13 1.0% 43.0 201 (2) -1.2% 641 2 0.3% 309 11 3.6%

2026 1,245 13 1.1% 43.2 201 0 0.2% 640 (1) -0.1% 319 10 3.4%

2027 1,258 13 1.1% 43.3 204 3 1.5% 641 1 0.2% 325 6 1.9%

2028 1,273 15 1.2% 43.1 203 (2) -0.9% 655 14 2.2% 325 (0) -0.1%

2029 1,288 15 1.2% 42.9 207 4 2.1% 662 7 1.1% 325 0 0.0%

2030 1,304 16 1.3% 42.2 216 9 4.6% 669 7 1.0% 322 (3) -0.8%

2031 1,320 16 1.2% 40.0 222 5 2.5% 680 11 1.6% 320 (3) -0.9%

2032 1,338 18 1.4% 39.3 232 11 4.8% 685 5 0.7% 319 (0) -0.2%

2033 1,356 18 1.3% 39.2 242 10 4.1% 693 9 1.3% 316 (3) -0.8%

2034 1,372 16 1.2% 38.9 256 14 5.8% 696 3 0.4% 315 (2) -0.6%

2035 1,387 15 1.1% 38.6 264 8 3.2% 703 6 0.9% 314 (1) -0.2%

2036 1,400 13 0.9% 38.2 271 7 2.5% 710 7 1.0% 313 (1) -0.4%

2037 1,413 13 0.9% 37.9 277 6 2.3% 715 5 0.8% 314 1 0.2%

2038 1,425 12 0.9% 37.7 283 6 2.2% 720 5 0.6% 315 2 0.5%

2039 1,436 11 0.8% 37.5 289 6 2.0% 727 7 1.0% 314 (1) -0.4%

2040 1,448 11 0.8% 37.5 294 5 1.9% 732 5 0.7% 315 1 0.2%

2041 1,459 12 0.8% 37.5 299 5 1.7% 741 9 1.2% 312 (3) -0.8%

2042 1,470 11 0.8% 37.5 303 4 1.4% 748 6 0.9% 312 (0) -0.1%

2043 1,481 11 0.7% 37.4 307 3 1.1% 746 (2) -0.2% 320 8 2.7%

2044 1,491 10 0.7% 37.4 309 3 0.8% 747 1 0.2% 325 5 1.6%

2045 1,502 10 0.7% 37.5 311 2 0.6% 750 3 0.4% 329 4 1.1%

2046 1,512 10 0.7% 37.5 313 1 0.5% 754 4 0.6% 331 3 0.8%

2047 1,522 10 0.7% 37.5 314 1 0.3% 760 6 0.8% 333 1 0.4%

2048 1,532 10 0.7% 37.6 314 1 0.3% 762 2 0.3% 338 5 1.6%

2049 1,542 10 0.6% 37.3 315 1 0.2% 764 2 0.2% 343 5 1.6%

2050 1,551 10 0.6% 37.1 316 1 0.2% 770 6 0.8% 344 1 0.2%

2051 1,561 10 0.6% 36.6 317 1 0.3% 775 5 0.7% 346 2 0.5%

2052 1,571 10 0.6% 35.9 318 1 0.4% 780 6 0.7% 347 1 0.2%

2053 1,581 10 0.6% 35.7 320 2 0.6% 792 12 1.5% 341 (6) -1.6%

2054 1,592 11 0.7% 35.5 322 2 0.8% 808 15 1.9% 332 (9) -2.7%

2055 1,603 11 0.7% 35.4 325 3 0.9% 822 14 1.8% 323 (9) -2.6%

2056 1,614 11 0.7% 35.2 329 4 1.1% 836 14 1.8% 315 (9) -2.7%

2057 1,625 11 0.7% 35.1 333 4 1.2% 848 12 1.4% 309 (6) -1.9%

2058 1,637 12 0.7% 34.9 338 5 1.4% 855 6 0.8% 308 (0) -0.1%

2059 1,649 13 0.8% 34.9 342 5 1.4% 856 1 0.1% 314 5 1.8%

2060 1,662 12 0.7% 34.8 347 5 1.4% 860 4 0.5% 316 2 0.7%

2061 1,674 12 0.7% 34.7 352 5 1.4% 865 5 0.5% 318 2 0.6%

2062 1,686 12 0.7% 34.7 357 5 1.3% 872 7 0.8% 317 (0) -0.1%

2063 1,698 12 0.7% 34.7 361 5 1.3% 879 7 0.9% 317 (0) -0.2%

2064 1,711 13 0.7% 34.7 366 4 1.2% 886 7 0.8% 318 1 0.2%

2065 1,723 12 0.7% 34.7 370 4 1.1% 892 6 0.7% 319 1 0.4%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 33

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 38: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

60 40 20 0 20 40 60

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Daggett: 2010 Population Pyramid

Female Male

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Daggett: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

34 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 39: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Daggett Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Daggett 11 5 6 25 312016 Daggett 8 5 3 2 52017 Daggett 14 9 5 38 432018 Daggett 9 12 -3 -41 -442019 Daggett 11 10 1 -1 02020 Daggett 6 15 -9 -1 -102021 Daggett 13 11 2 15 172022 Daggett 14 12 2 15 162023 Daggett 14 12 1 13 152024 Daggett 14 13 1 12 142025 Daggett 15 12 3 12 152026 Daggett 15 12 3 12 152027 Daggett 15 12 3 10 132028 Daggett 16 13 3 9 132029 Daggett 17 13 4 9 132030 Daggett 17 13 4 9 132031 Daggett 18 13 4 9 132032 Daggett 18 14 5 10 152033 Daggett 19 14 5 10 152034 Daggett 19 14 5 11 162035 Daggett 20 14 5 11 162036 Daggett 20 15 6 12 182037 Daggett 20 15 6 12 182038 Daggett 20 15 5 11 162039 Daggett 20 15 5 10 152040 Daggett 20 15 5 8 132041 Daggett 20 15 5 8 132042 Daggett 20 16 5 7 122043 Daggett 21 16 5 7 112044 Daggett 21 16 5 7 112045 Daggett 21 16 5 7 122046 Daggett 21 16 5 6 112047 Daggett 22 16 6 5 112048 Daggett 22 16 6 4 102049 Daggett 22 16 6 4 102050 Daggett 23 16 7 3 102051 Daggett 23 16 7 3 102052 Daggett 24 16 8 2 102053 Daggett 24 16 8 1 102054 Daggett 25 16 9 1 102055 Daggett 25 15 10 0 102056 Daggett 25 15 10 0 102057 Daggett 26 15 11 0 102058 Daggett 26 15 11 0 112059 Daggett 26 15 11 -1 112060 Daggett 27 15 12 -1 112061 Daggett 27 15 12 -1 112062 Daggett 27 15 12 0 122063 Daggett 27 15 13 0 132064 Daggett 27 15 13 0 122065 Daggett 28 15 13 -1 12

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 35

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 40: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Daggett: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Daggett: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

36 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 41: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Daggett Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 634 504 2.082016 649 15 2.4% 518 14 2.8% 2.012017 664 14 2.2% 507 (12) -2.2% 2.082018 677 13 2.0% 511 4 0.8% 2.092019 689 12 1.8% 512 2 0.3% 2.112020 700 11 1.6% 527 14 2.8% 2.082021 711 10 1.5% 536 9 1.7% 2.072022 720 10 1.4% 544 8 1.5% 2.072023 730 10 1.3% 543 (1) -0.2% 2.102024 739 9 1.3% 553 11 2.0% 2.082025 748 9 1.2% 567 14 2.5% 2.052026 757 9 1.2% 558 (9) -1.6% 2.102027 765 9 1.1% 559 1 0.2% 2.122028 774 8 1.1% 565 6 1.0% 2.122029 782 8 1.1% 583 17 3.1% 2.092030 791 8 1.1% 574 (9) -1.5% 2.142031 799 8 1.1% 562 (12) -2.1% 2.222032 807 8 1.0% 588 26 4.7% 2.152033 816 8 1.0% 564 (25) -4.2% 2.272034 824 8 1.0% 554 (10) -1.7% 2.342035 832 8 1.0% 568 14 2.5% 2.312036 840 8 1.0% 556 (12) -2.1% 2.382037 849 8 1.0% 568 13 2.3% 2.352038 857 8 1.0% 565 (3) -0.6% 2.382039 865 8 1.0% 584 19 3.3% 2.332040 873 8 0.9% 588 4 0.7% 2.332041 881 8 0.9% 593 4 0.7% 2.332042 890 8 0.9% 588 (5) -0.8% 2.372043 898 8 0.9% 591 3 0.5% 2.372044 906 8 0.9% 598 7 1.2% 2.362045 914 8 0.9% 611 13 2.1% 2.332046 923 8 0.9% 626 15 2.4% 2.292047 931 8 0.9% 624 (1) -0.2% 2.312048 939 8 0.9% 626 2 0.3% 2.322049 948 8 0.9% 629 2 0.4% 2.322050 956 8 0.9% 632 3 0.5% 2.332051 964 8 0.9% 642 11 1.7% 2.302052 973 8 0.9% 647 4 0.7% 2.302053 981 8 0.9% 653 6 1.0% 2.292054 990 8 0.9% 659 6 0.8% 2.292055 998 8 0.9% 659 1 0.1% 2.302056 1,007 9 0.9% 653 (7) -1.0% 2.342057 1,015 9 0.8% 654 1 0.1% 2.362058 1,024 9 0.8% 657 3 0.5% 2.362059 1,032 9 0.8% 658 1 0.2% 2.382060 1,041 9 0.8% 657 (1) -0.1% 2.402061 1,050 9 0.8% 655 (3) -0.4% 2.422062 1,058 9 0.8% 666 11 1.7% 2.402063 1,067 9 0.8% 668 3 0.4% 2.412064 1,076 9 0.8% 672 4 0.6% 2.412065 1,084 9 0.8% 675 3 0.5% 2.42

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 37

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 42: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

38 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 43: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Davis County

Table 1: Davis Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 336,091 30.9 83,973 191,773 31,175

2016 342,645 6,555 2.0% 31.1 85,078 1,104 1.3% 195,747 3,974 2.1% 32,473 1,298 4.2%

2017 348,281 5,636 1.6% 31.4 85,650 572 0.7% 198,967 3,220 1.6% 34,301 1,828 5.6%

2018 354,129 5,848 1.7% 31.7 86,355 705 0.8% 202,198 3,231 1.6% 36,240 1,939 5.7%

2019 359,674 5,545 1.6% 32.0 86,762 408 0.5% 205,343 3,146 1.6% 38,205 1,964 5.4%

2020 364,813 5,138 1.4% 32.3 87,140 378 0.4% 208,218 2,874 1.4% 40,187 1,982 5.2%

2021 369,757 4,945 1.4% 32.7 87,009 (131) -0.2% 211,192 2,974 1.4% 42,319 2,132 5.3%

2022 374,255 4,497 1.2% 33.0 86,573 (436) -0.5% 213,969 2,778 1.3% 44,462 2,143 5.1%

2023 378,369 4,114 1.1% 33.3 85,850 (723) -0.8% 216,713 2,743 1.3% 46,527 2,065 4.6%

2024 382,201 3,832 1.0% 33.7 84,989 (861) -1.0% 219,443 2,730 1.3% 48,430 1,903 4.1%

2025 385,800 3,599 0.9% 34.0 84,002 (987) -1.2% 221,990 2,547 1.2% 50,367 1,937 4.0%

2026 389,622 3,823 1.0% 34.3 83,179 (823) -1.0% 224,653 2,663 1.2% 52,162 1,795 3.6%

2027 393,539 3,917 1.0% 34.5 82,443 (736) -0.9% 227,310 2,658 1.2% 53,908 1,745 3.3%

2028 397,595 4,056 1.0% 34.7 81,876 (567) -0.7% 230,060 2,750 1.2% 55,465 1,558 2.9%

2029 401,763 4,168 1.0% 34.8 81,804 (71) -0.1% 232,533 2,473 1.1% 56,867 1,402 2.5%

2030 406,046 4,282 1.1% 34.9 81,854 50 0.1% 235,108 2,575 1.1% 58,117 1,250 2.2%

2031 410,403 4,357 1.1% 35.1 81,889 35 0.0% 237,858 2,750 1.2% 59,250 1,133 1.9%

2032 414,864 4,461 1.1% 35.3 82,099 210 0.3% 240,475 2,617 1.1% 60,429 1,180 2.0%

2033 419,417 4,553 1.1% 35.4 82,333 234 0.3% 243,160 2,685 1.1% 61,610 1,180 2.0%

2034 424,009 4,592 1.1% 35.6 82,759 426 0.5% 245,629 2,470 1.0% 62,878 1,268 2.1%

2035 428,627 4,618 1.1% 35.7 83,321 563 0.7% 247,848 2,218 0.9% 64,333 1,454 2.3%

2036 433,272 4,645 1.1% 35.9 84,017 696 0.8% 249,927 2,079 0.8% 65,872 1,539 2.4%

2037 437,935 4,663 1.1% 36.1 84,829 812 1.0% 252,192 2,266 0.9% 67,183 1,312 2.0%

2038 442,606 4,672 1.1% 36.2 85,745 916 1.1% 254,423 2,230 0.9% 68,496 1,312 2.0%

2039 447,277 4,671 1.1% 36.4 86,736 992 1.2% 256,439 2,016 0.8% 70,002 1,506 2.2%

2040 451,924 4,647 1.0% 36.6 87,777 1,041 1.2% 258,213 1,773 0.7% 71,734 1,732 2.5%

2041 456,534 4,610 1.0% 36.8 88,846 1,069 1.2% 259,776 1,564 0.6% 73,663 1,929 2.7%

2042 461,066 4,533 1.0% 37.1 89,906 1,059 1.2% 261,056 1,279 0.5% 75,852 2,189 3.0%

2043 465,480 4,414 1.0% 37.3 90,924 1,018 1.1% 262,165 1,110 0.4% 78,175 2,323 3.1%

2044 469,809 4,329 0.9% 37.5 91,886 963 1.1% 263,225 1,059 0.4% 80,544 2,369 3.0%

2045 474,028 4,219 0.9% 37.8 92,766 880 1.0% 264,152 927 0.4% 83,033 2,489 3.1%

2046 478,120 4,092 0.9% 38.0 93,534 768 0.8% 265,318 1,166 0.4% 85,274 2,241 2.7%

2047 482,076 3,956 0.8% 38.2 94,176 641 0.7% 266,709 1,391 0.5% 87,279 2,005 2.4%

2048 485,913 3,836 0.8% 38.4 94,685 510 0.5% 268,326 1,617 0.6% 89,058 1,778 2.0%

2049 489,636 3,724 0.8% 38.6 95,059 374 0.4% 269,854 1,527 0.6% 90,927 1,869 2.1%

2050 493,263 3,626 0.7% 38.8 95,306 246 0.3% 271,453 1,599 0.6% 92,726 1,799 2.0%

2051 496,923 3,660 0.7% 38.9 95,467 161 0.2% 273,350 1,897 0.7% 94,298 1,572 1.7%

2052 500,489 3,567 0.7% 39.0 95,523 56 0.1% 275,274 1,924 0.7% 95,818 1,519 1.6%

2053 503,961 3,472 0.7% 39.1 95,491 (32) 0.0% 277,137 1,863 0.7% 97,351 1,534 1.6%

2054 507,358 3,396 0.7% 39.3 95,394 (96) -0.1% 278,718 1,580 0.6% 99,117 1,765 1.8%

2055 510,712 3,354 0.7% 39.4 95,263 (131) -0.1% 280,309 1,591 0.6% 100,822 1,705 1.7%

2056 514,047 3,336 0.7% 39.5 95,121 (142) -0.1% 281,783 1,474 0.5% 102,597 1,776 1.8%

2057 517,388 3,340 0.6% 39.5 94,994 (127) -0.1% 283,621 1,838 0.7% 103,964 1,367 1.3%

2058 520,746 3,359 0.6% 39.6 94,908 (86) -0.1% 285,659 2,038 0.7% 105,078 1,114 1.1%

2059 524,132 3,386 0.7% 39.6 94,882 (25) 0.0% 287,875 2,216 0.8% 105,959 881 0.8%

2060 527,545 3,413 0.7% 39.7 94,931 49 0.1% 290,081 2,206 0.8% 106,787 828 0.8%

2061 530,993 3,448 0.7% 39.7 95,068 136 0.1% 291,940 1,859 0.6% 107,902 1,115 1.0%

2062 534,466 3,473 0.7% 39.7 95,299 231 0.2% 293,387 1,448 0.5% 109,359 1,458 1.4%

2063 537,947 3,481 0.7% 39.7 95,624 325 0.3% 295,025 1,638 0.6% 110,552 1,193 1.1%

2064 541,440 3,493 0.6% 39.8 96,045 421 0.4% 296,494 1,469 0.5% 111,845 1,293 1.2%

2065 544,958 3,518 0.6% 39.8 96,562 517 0.5% 297,875 1,381 0.5% 113,176 1,331 1.2%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 39

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 44: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ yearsDavis: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Davis: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

40 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 45: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Davis Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Davis 5,886 1,724 4,162 2,095 6,2572016 Davis 5,835 1,726 4,109 2,446 6,5552017 Davis 5,808 1,818 3,990 1,646 5,6362018 Davis 5,811 1,890 3,921 1,926 5,8482019 Davis 5,826 1,967 3,859 1,687 5,5452020 Davis 5,839 2,043 3,796 1,342 5,1382021 Davis 5,859 1,844 4,015 930 4,9452022 Davis 5,886 1,905 3,981 516 4,4972023 Davis 5,917 1,965 3,952 163 4,1142024 Davis 5,957 2,024 3,932 -101 3,8322025 Davis 6,005 2,084 3,921 -322 3,5992026 Davis 6,065 2,144 3,921 -99 3,8232027 Davis 6,136 2,204 3,932 -15 3,9172028 Davis 6,219 2,266 3,953 103 4,0562029 Davis 6,311 2,331 3,980 188 4,1682030 Davis 6,401 2,397 4,004 278 4,2822031 Davis 6,491 2,466 4,026 331 4,3572032 Davis 6,576 2,536 4,040 422 4,4612033 Davis 6,655 2,609 4,046 507 4,5532034 Davis 6,720 2,683 4,037 555 4,5922035 Davis 6,773 2,758 4,015 604 4,6182036 Davis 6,813 2,834 3,979 666 4,6452037 Davis 6,839 2,911 3,928 735 4,6632038 Davis 6,856 2,987 3,868 803 4,6722039 Davis 6,863 3,063 3,799 871 4,6712040 Davis 6,859 3,139 3,720 927 4,6472041 Davis 6,847 3,214 3,633 977 4,6102042 Davis 6,832 3,287 3,545 988 4,5332043 Davis 6,815 3,359 3,456 958 4,4142044 Davis 6,794 3,429 3,365 964 4,3292045 Davis 6,777 3,496 3,280 939 4,2192046 Davis 6,762 3,561 3,201 890 4,0922047 Davis 6,752 3,623 3,130 827 3,9562048 Davis 6,749 3,683 3,066 770 3,8362049 Davis 6,753 3,740 3,013 710 3,7242050 Davis 6,766 3,794 2,972 655 3,6262051 Davis 6,786 3,846 2,940 720 3,6602052 Davis 6,820 3,898 2,923 644 3,5672053 Davis 6,862 3,948 2,915 557 3,4722054 Davis 6,912 3,997 2,915 482 3,3962055 Davis 6,968 4,047 2,921 432 3,3542056 Davis 7,029 4,096 2,933 403 3,3362057 Davis 7,096 4,147 2,948 392 3,3402058 Davis 7,165 4,200 2,964 394 3,3592059 Davis 7,235 4,256 2,979 407 3,3862060 Davis 7,304 4,314 2,990 423 3,4132061 Davis 7,372 4,376 2,996 452 3,4482062 Davis 7,436 4,441 2,995 478 3,4732063 Davis 7,495 4,509 2,986 496 3,4812064 Davis 7,548 4,580 2,968 525 3,4932065 Davis 7,594 4,654 2,940 578 3,518

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 41

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 46: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Davis: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Davis: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

42 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 47: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3:Davis Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 172,614 106,535 3.122016 178,318 5,704 3.3% 109,089 2,554 2.4% 3.112017 183,725 5,407 3.0% 111,549 2,460 2.3% 3.092018 188,654 4,929 2.7% 114,179 2,630 2.4% 3.072019 193,153 4,499 2.4% 116,713 2,534 2.2% 3.052020 197,304 4,151 2.1% 119,153 2,440 2.1% 3.032021 201,174 3,870 2.0% 121,652 2,499 2.1% 3.012022 204,873 3,700 1.8% 124,039 2,387 2.0% 2.992023 208,435 3,561 1.7% 126,316 2,276 1.8% 2.962024 211,887 3,453 1.7% 128,550 2,234 1.8% 2.942025 215,258 3,370 1.6% 130,716 2,167 1.7% 2.922026 218,568 3,311 1.5% 132,920 2,204 1.7% 2.902027 221,837 3,269 1.5% 135,143 2,223 1.7% 2.882028 225,077 3,240 1.5% 137,410 2,267 1.7% 2.862029 228,295 3,218 1.4% 139,672 2,262 1.6% 2.852030 231,494 3,199 1.4% 141,997 2,326 1.7% 2.832031 234,668 3,174 1.4% 144,425 2,428 1.7% 2.812032 237,805 3,137 1.3% 146,838 2,413 1.7% 2.802033 240,899 3,094 1.3% 149,272 2,434 1.7% 2.782034 243,952 3,053 1.3% 151,697 2,425 1.6% 2.772035 246,967 3,015 1.2% 154,027 2,330 1.5% 2.752036 249,946 2,979 1.2% 156,231 2,204 1.4% 2.742037 252,891 2,945 1.2% 158,419 2,189 1.4% 2.742038 255,806 2,915 1.2% 160,604 2,185 1.4% 2.732039 258,692 2,886 1.1% 162,743 2,139 1.3% 2.722040 261,553 2,861 1.1% 164,844 2,100 1.3% 2.712041 264,390 2,837 1.1% 166,900 2,056 1.2% 2.712042 267,206 2,816 1.1% 168,827 1,928 1.2% 2.702043 270,003 2,797 1.0% 170,645 1,818 1.1% 2.702044 272,782 2,780 1.0% 172,455 1,810 1.1% 2.692045 275,547 2,764 1.0% 174,162 1,706 1.0% 2.692046 278,297 2,751 1.0% 175,795 1,633 0.9% 2.692047 281,036 2,739 1.0% 177,374 1,579 0.9% 2.692048 283,764 2,728 1.0% 178,985 1,611 0.9% 2.682049 286,481 2,718 1.0% 180,561 1,576 0.9% 2.682050 289,191 2,709 0.9% 182,148 1,587 0.9% 2.682051 291,891 2,701 0.9% 183,756 1,609 0.9% 2.672052 294,584 2,693 0.9% 185,371 1,615 0.9% 2.672053 297,269 2,685 0.9% 187,058 1,687 0.9% 2.662054 299,947 2,677 0.9% 188,785 1,727 0.9% 2.662055 302,616 2,669 0.9% 190,571 1,786 0.9% 2.652056 305,276 2,660 0.9% 192,332 1,760 0.9% 2.642057 307,925 2,650 0.9% 194,150 1,819 0.9% 2.632058 310,563 2,638 0.9% 196,003 1,853 1.0% 2.622059 313,188 2,625 0.8% 197,898 1,895 1.0% 2.622060 315,797 2,609 0.8% 199,847 1,949 1.0% 2.612061 318,389 2,591 0.8% 201,790 1,943 1.0% 2.602062 320,959 2,571 0.8% 203,540 1,750 0.9% 2.592063 323,506 2,547 0.8% 205,199 1,659 0.8% 2.592064 326,025 2,519 0.8% 206,833 1,634 0.8% 2.592065 328,512 2,487 0.8% 208,380 1,547 0.7% 2.58

Total HouseholdsTotal Employment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 43

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 48: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

44 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 49: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Duchesne County

Table 1: Duchesne Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 20,821 30.5 5,112 11,262 2,228

2016 20,608 (213) -1.0% 30.8 5,123 10 0.2% 11,077 (185) -1.6% 2,263 35 1.6%

2017 21,134 526 2.6% 31.0 5,327 204 4.0% 11,304 227 2.1% 2,360 97 4.3%

2018 21,727 593 2.8% 31.1 5,550 224 4.2% 11,584 280 2.5% 2,459 99 4.2%

2019 22,236 509 2.3% 31.3 5,744 194 3.5% 11,816 233 2.0% 2,545 86 3.5%

2020 22,653 417 1.9% 31.6 5,924 180 3.1% 11,984 168 1.4% 2,642 96 3.8%

2021 23,044 392 1.7% 31.8 6,004 80 1.4% 12,166 182 1.5% 2,751 110 4.1%

2022 23,403 358 1.6% 32.0 6,107 103 1.7% 12,283 116 1.0% 2,889 138 5.0%

2023 23,732 330 1.4% 32.2 6,182 75 1.2% 12,393 110 0.9% 3,033 144 5.0%

2024 24,018 286 1.2% 32.4 6,226 44 0.7% 12,497 104 0.8% 3,169 137 4.5%

2025 24,277 258 1.1% 32.7 6,245 19 0.3% 12,606 109 0.9% 3,294 124 3.9%

2026 24,526 249 1.0% 32.9 6,207 (37) -0.6% 12,777 171 1.4% 3,397 103 3.1%

2027 24,764 239 1.0% 33.1 6,184 (24) -0.4% 12,913 137 1.1% 3,502 106 3.1%

2028 24,991 226 0.9% 33.1 6,119 (65) -1.0% 13,073 160 1.2% 3,607 105 3.0%

2029 25,206 216 0.9% 33.1 6,097 (22) -0.4% 13,190 116 0.9% 3,695 88 2.4%

2030 25,422 216 0.9% 33.2 6,049 (48) -0.8% 13,353 163 1.2% 3,759 63 1.7%

2031 25,636 214 0.8% 33.2 5,990 (58) -1.0% 13,522 170 1.3% 3,818 59 1.6%

2032 25,866 230 0.9% 33.2 5,963 (27) -0.5% 13,688 166 1.2% 3,863 45 1.2%

2033 26,104 238 0.9% 33.3 5,937 (26) -0.4% 13,870 181 1.3% 3,901 37 1.0%

2034 26,348 244 0.9% 33.3 5,973 36 0.6% 13,990 120 0.9% 3,947 46 1.2%

2035 26,596 248 0.9% 33.2 6,000 27 0.4% 14,133 143 1.0% 3,987 40 1.0%

2036 26,849 253 1.0% 33.2 6,043 43 0.7% 14,255 122 0.9% 4,041 54 1.3%

2037 27,106 257 1.0% 33.2 6,099 56 0.9% 14,371 116 0.8% 4,098 57 1.4%

2038 27,366 260 1.0% 33.2 6,168 69 1.1% 14,486 115 0.8% 4,151 54 1.3%

2039 27,629 263 1.0% 33.3 6,247 79 1.3% 14,598 112 0.8% 4,206 54 1.3%

2040 27,893 264 1.0% 33.3 6,334 87 1.4% 14,701 103 0.7% 4,267 61 1.5%

2041 28,158 265 0.9% 33.4 6,428 94 1.5% 14,789 87 0.6% 4,342 75 1.8%

2042 28,420 263 0.9% 33.6 6,525 97 1.5% 14,849 60 0.4% 4,444 102 2.3%

2043 28,679 259 0.9% 33.7 6,621 96 1.5% 14,914 65 0.4% 4,541 97 2.2%

2044 28,933 254 0.9% 33.9 6,713 92 1.4% 14,957 44 0.3% 4,659 119 2.6%

2045 29,178 245 0.8% 34.0 6,797 84 1.3% 14,965 8 0.1% 4,814 154 3.3%

2046 29,412 234 0.8% 34.1 6,872 75 1.1% 14,977 12 0.1% 4,963 149 3.1%

2047 29,637 225 0.8% 34.3 6,935 64 0.9% 15,015 38 0.3% 5,089 126 2.5%

2048 29,852 215 0.7% 34.5 6,987 51 0.7% 15,076 61 0.4% 5,192 103 2.0%

2049 30,059 207 0.7% 34.6 7,026 39 0.6% 15,130 54 0.4% 5,305 113 2.2%

2050 30,259 199 0.7% 34.8 7,053 28 0.4% 15,171 41 0.3% 5,431 126 2.4%

2051 30,454 195 0.6% 34.8 7,072 18 0.3% 15,207 36 0.2% 5,564 133 2.4%

2052 30,645 191 0.6% 34.9 7,082 10 0.1% 15,270 63 0.4% 5,670 107 1.9%

2053 30,833 188 0.6% 35.0 7,087 5 0.1% 15,339 69 0.5% 5,770 100 1.8%

2054 31,020 187 0.6% 35.0 7,086 (0) 0.0% 15,390 51 0.3% 5,888 118 2.0%

2055 31,205 185 0.6% 35.0 7,084 (2) 0.0% 15,486 96 0.6% 5,958 70 1.2%

2056 31,390 185 0.6% 35.0 7,083 (2) 0.0% 15,584 97 0.6% 6,025 67 1.1%

2057 31,577 187 0.6% 35.0 7,084 1 0.0% 15,682 99 0.6% 6,087 63 1.0%

2058 31,767 190 0.6% 35.0 7,089 5 0.1% 15,779 97 0.6% 6,149 62 1.0%

2059 31,959 192 0.6% 35.0 7,100 11 0.2% 15,898 118 0.7% 6,187 38 0.6%

2060 32,154 196 0.6% 35.0 7,118 18 0.2% 16,048 151 0.9% 6,189 2 0.0%

2061 32,353 198 0.6% 34.9 7,142 24 0.3% 16,183 135 0.8% 6,204 15 0.2%

2062 32,553 200 0.6% 34.9 7,173 31 0.4% 16,292 109 0.7% 6,241 37 0.6%

2063 32,752 199 0.6% 34.9 7,211 37 0.5% 16,429 137 0.8% 6,245 4 0.1%

2064 32,952 200 0.6% 34.9 7,254 43 0.6% 16,554 125 0.8% 6,258 13 0.2%

2065 33,153 201 0.6% 34.9 7,303 49 0.7% 16,658 105 0.6% 6,289 31 0.5%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 45

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 50: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Duchesne: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 to 89 years

90 to 94 years

95 to 99 years

100+ years

Duchesne: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

46 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 51: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Duchesne Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Duchesne 445 144 301 -57 2442016 Duchesne 389 161 228 -441 -2132017 Duchesne 400 119 281 245 5262018 Duchesne 403 124 279 314 5932019 Duchesne 407 128 279 230 5092020 Duchesne 409 133 277 140 4172021 Duchesne 411 119 292 100 3922022 Duchesne 413 122 291 68 3582023 Duchesne 415 126 290 40 3302024 Duchesne 419 129 290 -3 2862025 Duchesne 424 133 291 -32 2582026 Duchesne 430 137 293 -44 2492027 Duchesne 437 140 297 -58 2392028 Duchesne 446 144 302 -76 2262029 Duchesne 456 148 308 -92 2162030 Duchesne 465 152 313 -97 2162031 Duchesne 474 155 319 -105 2142032 Duchesne 483 159 324 -94 2302033 Duchesne 491 163 328 -90 2382034 Duchesne 498 167 331 -86 2442035 Duchesne 503 171 332 -84 2482036 Duchesne 508 175 333 -80 2532037 Duchesne 511 179 332 -75 2572038 Duchesne 513 183 330 -70 2602039 Duchesne 514 187 327 -64 2632040 Duchesne 514 191 324 -59 2642041 Duchesne 514 194 320 -55 2652042 Duchesne 514 198 316 -53 2632043 Duchesne 513 202 311 -52 2592044 Duchesne 512 205 307 -54 2542045 Duchesne 512 209 304 -59 2452046 Duchesne 512 212 300 -66 2342047 Duchesne 512 215 298 -72 2252048 Duchesne 514 218 296 -81 2152049 Duchesne 515 220 295 -88 2072050 Duchesne 518 223 295 -95 1992051 Duchesne 521 225 296 -101 1952052 Duchesne 525 227 297 -106 1912053 Duchesne 530 230 300 -112 1882054 Duchesne 534 231 303 -116 1872055 Duchesne 540 233 306 -121 1852056 Duchesne 545 235 310 -125 1852057 Duchesne 550 237 313 -127 1872058 Duchesne 556 239 316 -127 1902059 Duchesne 560 241 319 -127 1922060 Duchesne 565 243 322 -126 1962061 Duchesne 569 246 323 -125 1982062 Duchesne 573 248 325 -125 2002063 Duchesne 577 251 325 -126 1992064 Duchesne 580 255 325 -125 2002065 Duchesne 582 258 324 -123 201

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 47

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 52: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Duchesne: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Duchesne: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

48 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 53: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Duchesne Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 12,581 6,771 3.032016 12,747 166 1.3% 6,723 (47) -0.7% 3.022017 13,233 486 3.8% 6,899 175 2.6% 3.022018 13,743 510 3.9% 7,099 200 2.9% 3.012019 14,165 422 3.1% 7,277 178 2.5% 3.012020 14,490 324 2.3% 7,431 154 2.1% 3.002021 14,770 281 1.9% 7,577 146 2.0% 3.002022 15,026 255 1.7% 7,719 142 1.9% 2.992023 15,264 238 1.6% 7,856 138 1.8% 2.972024 15,486 222 1.5% 7,977 121 1.5% 2.962025 15,695 209 1.3% 8,102 125 1.6% 2.952026 15,891 196 1.3% 8,217 115 1.4% 2.942027 16,076 186 1.2% 8,334 117 1.4% 2.922028 16,253 176 1.1% 8,452 119 1.4% 2.912029 16,421 168 1.0% 8,562 110 1.3% 2.902030 16,582 161 1.0% 8,671 109 1.3% 2.882031 16,735 154 0.9% 8,776 106 1.2% 2.872032 16,882 147 0.9% 8,876 100 1.1% 2.862033 17,022 140 0.8% 8,989 113 1.3% 2.852034 17,156 134 0.8% 9,101 112 1.2% 2.852035 17,285 129 0.7% 9,198 97 1.1% 2.842036 17,408 124 0.7% 9,298 99 1.1% 2.842037 17,528 119 0.7% 9,393 95 1.0% 2.832038 17,643 115 0.7% 9,490 97 1.0% 2.832039 17,755 112 0.6% 9,588 98 1.0% 2.832040 17,864 109 0.6% 9,687 99 1.0% 2.832041 17,971 107 0.6% 9,776 89 0.9% 2.832042 18,075 104 0.6% 9,873 96 1.0% 2.832043 18,177 102 0.6% 9,962 89 0.9% 2.822044 18,277 100 0.5% 10,059 97 1.0% 2.822045 18,374 97 0.5% 10,149 89 0.9% 2.822046 18,469 95 0.5% 10,220 72 0.7% 2.822047 18,563 94 0.5% 10,300 80 0.8% 2.822048 18,656 93 0.5% 10,388 88 0.9% 2.822049 18,748 93 0.5% 10,474 86 0.8% 2.812050 18,841 93 0.5% 10,559 86 0.8% 2.812051 18,934 93 0.5% 10,644 85 0.8% 2.802052 19,028 94 0.5% 10,729 85 0.8% 2.802053 19,123 95 0.5% 10,816 86 0.8% 2.792054 19,220 97 0.5% 10,898 83 0.8% 2.792055 19,318 98 0.5% 10,992 94 0.9% 2.782056 19,418 100 0.5% 11,079 87 0.8% 2.772057 19,519 101 0.5% 11,170 91 0.8% 2.772058 19,623 103 0.5% 11,257 87 0.8% 2.762059 19,727 105 0.5% 11,341 84 0.7% 2.762060 19,834 106 0.5% 11,428 87 0.8% 2.752061 19,942 108 0.5% 11,513 85 0.7% 2.752062 20,051 109 0.5% 11,600 86 0.8% 2.752063 20,161 110 0.6% 11,667 67 0.6% 2.752064 20,273 111 0.6% 11,740 73 0.6% 2.752065 20,384 112 0.6% 11,804 64 0.5% 2.75

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 49

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 54: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

50 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 55: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Emery County

Table 1: Emery Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 10,659 34.7 2,501 5,803 1,597

2016 10,573 (85) -0.8% 35.2 2,465 (35) -1.4% 5,739 (63) -1.1% 1,654 58 3.6%

2017 10,711 137 1.3% 35.5 2,507 41 1.7% 5,800 61 1.1% 1,706 52 3.2%

2018 10,851 141 1.3% 35.8 2,515 9 0.4% 5,863 63 1.1% 1,774 68 4.0%

2019 10,983 132 1.2% 36.1 2,509 (6) -0.3% 5,918 55 0.9% 1,837 62 3.5%

2020 11,094 111 1.0% 36.4 2,478 (31) -1.2% 5,977 59 1.0% 1,903 67 3.6%

2021 11,206 113 1.0% 36.6 2,458 (20) -0.8% 6,026 49 0.8% 1,972 69 3.6%

2022 11,307 101 0.9% 36.9 2,426 (32) -1.3% 6,089 63 1.0% 2,038 65 3.3%

2023 11,396 89 0.8% 37.2 2,394 (32) -1.3% 6,126 36 0.6% 2,118 81 4.0%

2024 11,477 81 0.7% 37.5 2,347 (47) -2.0% 6,187 61 1.0% 2,181 62 2.9%

2025 11,550 73 0.6% 37.7 2,296 (51) -2.2% 6,240 53 0.9% 2,246 66 3.0%

2026 11,635 86 0.7% 37.9 2,248 (48) -2.1% 6,309 69 1.1% 2,304 58 2.6%

2027 11,722 86 0.7% 38.1 2,207 (41) -1.8% 6,388 80 1.3% 2,344 40 1.7%

2028 11,809 87 0.7% 38.3 2,181 (26) -1.2% 6,458 70 1.1% 2,379 35 1.5%

2029 11,901 92 0.8% 38.5 2,165 (16) -0.7% 6,525 67 1.0% 2,411 32 1.4%

2030 12,000 99 0.8% 38.8 2,155 (10) -0.5% 6,612 87 1.3% 2,424 12 0.5%

2031 12,103 104 0.9% 39.1 2,164 10 0.4% 6,692 80 1.2% 2,430 6 0.2%

2032 12,209 106 0.9% 39.3 2,194 30 1.4% 6,754 62 0.9% 2,438 8 0.3%

2033 12,312 102 0.8% 39.4 2,222 28 1.3% 6,832 78 1.2% 2,431 (7) -0.3%

2034 12,412 100 0.8% 39.5 2,250 28 1.2% 6,894 61 0.9% 2,440 9 0.4%

2035 12,507 96 0.8% 39.6 2,269 19 0.8% 6,959 66 1.0% 2,451 11 0.4%

2036 12,599 92 0.7% 39.8 2,287 18 0.8% 7,019 60 0.9% 2,466 16 0.6%

2037 12,687 88 0.7% 40.0 2,304 17 0.7% 7,077 58 0.8% 2,483 16 0.7%

2038 12,772 85 0.7% 40.2 2,320 17 0.7% 7,144 67 0.9% 2,489 6 0.2%

2039 12,856 84 0.7% 40.3 2,337 17 0.7% 7,206 62 0.9% 2,500 11 0.5%

2040 12,938 82 0.6% 40.4 2,353 16 0.7% 7,280 74 1.0% 2,498 (2) -0.1%

2041 13,021 83 0.6% 40.6 2,367 14 0.6% 7,329 50 0.7% 2,522 24 1.0%

2042 13,103 82 0.6% 40.7 2,377 11 0.5% 7,364 35 0.5% 2,563 40 1.6%

2043 13,184 81 0.6% 41.0 2,385 7 0.3% 7,403 39 0.5% 2,601 38 1.5%

2044 13,265 81 0.6% 41.2 2,389 4 0.2% 7,427 24 0.3% 2,655 54 2.1%

2045 13,345 80 0.6% 41.4 2,391 2 0.1% 7,453 26 0.3% 2,708 54 2.0%

2046 13,424 79 0.6% 41.7 2,390 (1) 0.0% 7,476 23 0.3% 2,766 57 2.1%

2047 13,503 79 0.6% 42.0 2,386 (4) -0.1% 7,499 22 0.3% 2,825 59 2.1%

2048 13,583 80 0.6% 42.3 2,381 (5) -0.2% 7,521 23 0.3% 2,885 60 2.1%

2049 13,664 81 0.6% 42.6 2,375 (6) -0.2% 7,550 29 0.4% 2,940 55 1.9%

2050 13,749 85 0.6% 42.9 2,370 (5) -0.2% 7,599 48 0.6% 2,978 38 1.3%

2051 13,837 88 0.6% 43.2 2,365 (5) -0.2% 7,642 44 0.6% 3,022 44 1.5%

2052 13,929 92 0.7% 43.5 2,362 (4) -0.2% 7,688 46 0.6% 3,067 45 1.5%

2053 14,025 96 0.7% 43.8 2,359 (2) -0.1% 7,744 55 0.7% 3,103 36 1.2%

2054 14,123 99 0.7% 44.0 2,359 0 0.0% 7,808 64 0.8% 3,131 28 0.9%

2055 14,226 103 0.7% 44.2 2,362 3 0.1% 7,852 44 0.6% 3,180 49 1.6%

2056 14,331 105 0.7% 44.4 2,368 6 0.2% 7,878 27 0.3% 3,247 66 2.1%

2057 14,440 109 0.8% 44.5 2,376 8 0.3% 7,889 11 0.1% 3,330 83 2.6%

2058 14,551 112 0.8% 44.6 2,386 11 0.4% 7,925 36 0.5% 3,389 59 1.8%

2059 14,665 114 0.8% 44.6 2,399 13 0.5% 7,982 57 0.7% 3,427 38 1.1%

2060 14,781 116 0.8% 44.6 2,414 15 0.6% 8,030 48 0.6% 3,475 48 1.4%

2061 14,897 116 0.8% 44.6 2,430 16 0.7% 8,072 43 0.5% 3,528 53 1.5%

2062 15,014 117 0.8% 44.6 2,447 17 0.7% 8,106 33 0.4% 3,590 62 1.8%

2063 15,131 117 0.8% 44.7 2,465 18 0.7% 8,139 34 0.4% 3,652 62 1.7%

2064 15,248 117 0.8% 44.7 2,483 18 0.7% 8,193 54 0.7% 3,693 41 1.1%

2065 15,364 116 0.8% 44.8 2,502 19 0.7% 8,239 46 0.6% 3,743 49 1.3%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 51

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 56: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

600 400 200 0 200 400 600

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Emery: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Emery: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

52 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 57: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Emery Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Emery 137 77 60 -245 -1852016 Emery 135 89 46 -131 -852017 Emery 142 81 61 76 1372018 Emery 143 83 59 81 1412019 Emery 144 86 58 74 1322020 Emery 145 89 57 54 1112021 Emery 146 80 67 46 1132022 Emery 147 82 65 35 1012023 Emery 148 84 64 25 892024 Emery 150 86 64 17 812025 Emery 152 88 63 9 732026 Emery 153 91 63 23 862027 Emery 155 93 62 24 862028 Emery 157 95 62 25 872029 Emery 159 97 61 31 922030 Emery 160 100 60 39 992031 Emery 160 102 58 46 1042032 Emery 160 104 56 50 1062033 Emery 160 106 54 48 1022034 Emery 160 109 52 48 1002035 Emery 160 111 49 46 962036 Emery 159 113 46 46 922037 Emery 157 115 43 45 882038 Emery 156 116 39 46 852039 Emery 155 118 37 48 842040 Emery 154 120 34 48 822041 Emery 153 121 32 51 832042 Emery 153 123 30 52 822043 Emery 153 124 29 52 812044 Emery 152 125 27 53 812045 Emery 153 126 27 54 802046 Emery 153 127 26 53 792047 Emery 153 128 26 53 792048 Emery 154 128 26 54 802049 Emery 155 129 26 55 812050 Emery 156 129 27 58 852051 Emery 157 130 27 61 882052 Emery 158 130 28 64 922053 Emery 160 130 29 66 962054 Emery 161 131 30 68 992055 Emery 162 131 31 71 1032056 Emery 163 131 32 73 1052057 Emery 164 132 33 76 1092058 Emery 165 132 33 79 1122059 Emery 166 133 33 80 1142060 Emery 167 134 33 83 1162061 Emery 168 135 33 83 1162062 Emery 168 136 32 85 1172063 Emery 169 138 31 86 1172064 Emery 169 140 29 88 1172065 Emery 169 142 27 89 116

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 53

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 58: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Emery: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Emery: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

54 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 59: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Emery Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 5,036 3,836 2.772016 5,124 88 1.8% 3,850 14 0.4% 2.732017 5,248 124 2.4% 3,903 53 1.4% 2.732018 5,365 117 2.2% 3,985 82 2.1% 2.712019 5,466 101 1.9% 4,045 61 1.5% 2.702020 5,552 85 1.6% 4,103 58 1.4% 2.692021 5,630 78 1.4% 4,181 78 1.9% 2.662022 5,704 74 1.3% 4,247 66 1.6% 2.652023 5,775 71 1.2% 4,325 78 1.8% 2.622024 5,843 68 1.2% 4,373 47 1.1% 2.612025 5,910 66 1.1% 4,441 68 1.5% 2.582026 5,975 65 1.1% 4,499 59 1.3% 2.572027 6,039 64 1.1% 4,563 64 1.4% 2.552028 6,102 64 1.1% 4,612 49 1.1% 2.542029 6,166 63 1.0% 4,662 50 1.1% 2.532030 6,229 63 1.0% 4,724 62 1.3% 2.522031 6,292 63 1.0% 4,764 40 0.8% 2.522032 6,356 63 1.0% 4,837 73 1.5% 2.502033 6,419 63 1.0% 4,898 61 1.3% 2.492034 6,482 63 1.0% 4,950 51 1.1% 2.482035 6,545 63 1.0% 5,006 56 1.1% 2.472036 6,608 63 1.0% 5,037 32 0.6% 2.482037 6,671 63 1.0% 5,090 53 1.1% 2.472038 6,734 63 0.9% 5,119 28 0.6% 2.472039 6,797 63 0.9% 5,170 51 1.0% 2.462040 6,861 63 0.9% 5,206 37 0.7% 2.462041 6,924 63 0.9% 5,244 38 0.7% 2.452042 6,988 64 0.9% 5,297 53 1.0% 2.442043 7,052 64 0.9% 5,328 31 0.6% 2.452044 7,116 64 0.9% 5,384 56 1.0% 2.432045 7,180 64 0.9% 5,420 36 0.7% 2.432046 7,244 64 0.9% 5,459 39 0.7% 2.432047 7,308 64 0.9% 5,503 43 0.8% 2.422048 7,373 65 0.9% 5,536 34 0.6% 2.422049 7,438 65 0.9% 5,587 51 0.9% 2.412050 7,504 65 0.9% 5,632 44 0.8% 2.412051 7,570 66 0.9% 5,692 60 1.1% 2.402052 7,636 67 0.9% 5,744 52 0.9% 2.392053 7,703 67 0.9% 5,794 50 0.9% 2.392054 7,771 68 0.9% 5,858 64 1.1% 2.382055 7,840 68 0.9% 5,918 60 1.0% 2.372056 7,909 69 0.9% 5,980 61 1.0% 2.372057 7,979 70 0.9% 6,031 51 0.9% 2.362058 8,049 71 0.9% 6,085 54 0.9% 2.362059 8,120 71 0.9% 6,133 48 0.8% 2.362060 8,192 72 0.9% 6,189 56 0.9% 2.362061 8,265 72 0.9% 6,255 67 1.1% 2.352062 8,338 73 0.9% 6,318 63 1.0% 2.352063 8,411 73 0.9% 6,385 66 1.0% 2.342064 8,485 74 0.9% 6,436 51 0.8% 2.342065 8,559 74 0.9% 6,509 74 1.1% 2.33

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 55

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 60: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

56 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 61: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Garfield County

Table 1: Garfield Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 5,164 39.7 1,023 2,853 990

2016 5,190 26 0.5% 39.7 1,011 (12) -1.2% 2,860 7 0.2% 1,022 32 3.2%

2017 5,273 82 1.6% 39.5 1,023 12 1.2% 2,866 6 0.2% 1,072 50 4.9%

2018 5,356 84 1.6% 39.4 1,043 20 1.9% 2,883 17 0.6% 1,101 29 2.7%

2019 5,437 81 1.5% 39.4 1,059 16 1.5% 2,897 15 0.5% 1,135 34 3.0%

2020 5,516 79 1.4% 39.4 1,056 (3) -0.3% 2,916 19 0.6% 1,167 33 2.9%

2021 5,593 77 1.4% 39.5 1,047 (9) -0.9% 2,945 29 1.0% 1,196 29 2.5%

2022 5,662 69 1.2% 39.5 1,059 13 1.2% 2,967 22 0.7% 1,225 29 2.4%

2023 5,726 63 1.1% 39.5 1,062 3 0.2% 3,001 34 1.2% 1,249 24 1.9%

2024 5,786 61 1.1% 39.4 1,062 1 0.1% 3,029 28 0.9% 1,278 30 2.4%

2025 5,845 59 1.0% 39.4 1,065 3 0.3% 3,046 16 0.5% 1,316 38 3.0%

2026 5,907 62 1.1% 39.4 1,079 14 1.3% 3,068 22 0.7% 1,340 24 1.8%

2027 5,970 63 1.1% 39.4 1,101 22 2.1% 3,079 11 0.4% 1,368 27 2.0%

2028 6,031 61 1.0% 39.5 1,114 13 1.2% 3,105 26 0.8% 1,388 20 1.5%

2029 6,090 59 1.0% 39.6 1,142 28 2.5% 3,118 13 0.4% 1,402 14 1.0%

2030 6,147 57 0.9% 39.5 1,163 20 1.8% 3,156 38 1.2% 1,398 (4) -0.3%

2031 6,205 59 1.0% 39.6 1,186 23 2.0% 3,190 34 1.1% 1,397 (1) -0.1%

2032 6,265 60 1.0% 39.6 1,208 22 1.9% 3,232 42 1.3% 1,390 (7) -0.5%

2033 6,320 54 0.9% 39.6 1,241 33 2.7% 3,258 26 0.8% 1,384 (6) -0.4%

2034 6,366 46 0.7% 39.6 1,270 29 2.4% 3,275 18 0.5% 1,382 (2) -0.2%

2035 6,405 39 0.6% 39.6 1,278 8 0.6% 3,314 38 1.2% 1,375 (7) -0.5%

2036 6,440 35 0.5% 39.7 1,281 3 0.2% 3,342 29 0.9% 1,377 2 0.2%

2037 6,471 31 0.5% 39.8 1,283 1 0.1% 3,368 26 0.8% 1,381 4 0.3%

2038 6,498 28 0.4% 40.0 1,283 1 0.0% 3,395 27 0.8% 1,382 1 0.0%

2039 6,525 26 0.4% 40.0 1,283 0 0.0% 3,418 24 0.7% 1,384 3 0.2%

2040 6,551 27 0.4% 39.8 1,283 0 0.0% 3,442 24 0.7% 1,386 1 0.1%

2041 6,579 28 0.4% 39.7 1,284 1 0.1% 3,470 27 0.8% 1,384 (2) -0.1%

2042 6,608 28 0.4% 39.7 1,285 1 0.1% 3,494 25 0.7% 1,384 (0) 0.0%

2043 6,637 29 0.4% 39.7 1,286 1 0.1% 3,518 24 0.7% 1,385 1 0.1%

2044 6,667 30 0.4% 39.8 1,287 1 0.1% 3,533 15 0.4% 1,394 9 0.7%

2045 6,697 31 0.5% 39.9 1,288 1 0.1% 3,544 11 0.3% 1,407 14 1.0%

2046 6,728 31 0.5% 40.0 1,290 2 0.2% 3,556 12 0.3% 1,420 12 0.9%

2047 6,761 33 0.5% 40.2 1,293 3 0.2% 3,566 11 0.3% 1,433 14 1.0%

2048 6,795 34 0.5% 40.2 1,297 4 0.3% 3,582 16 0.4% 1,442 9 0.6%

2049 6,831 36 0.5% 40.1 1,303 5 0.4% 3,607 25 0.7% 1,443 1 0.1%

2050 6,869 38 0.6% 40.1 1,309 7 0.5% 3,634 27 0.7% 1,444 0 0.0%

2051 6,909 40 0.6% 39.9 1,317 8 0.6% 3,651 17 0.5% 1,454 11 0.7%

2052 6,951 42 0.6% 39.8 1,327 9 0.7% 3,664 13 0.3% 1,471 16 1.1%

2053 6,995 43 0.6% 39.7 1,337 11 0.8% 3,684 21 0.6% 1,480 9 0.6%

2054 7,039 44 0.6% 39.5 1,348 11 0.8% 3,691 7 0.2% 1,503 23 1.5%

2055 7,083 45 0.6% 39.1 1,360 12 0.9% 3,704 13 0.4% 1,519 17 1.1%

2056 7,129 45 0.6% 39.1 1,373 12 0.9% 3,720 16 0.4% 1,534 15 1.0%

2057 7,174 45 0.6% 39.2 1,385 12 0.9% 3,729 9 0.2% 1,556 22 1.4%

2058 7,219 45 0.6% 39.2 1,397 12 0.9% 3,744 15 0.4% 1,572 16 1.0%

2059 7,264 45 0.6% 39.3 1,409 11 0.8% 3,761 17 0.5% 1,587 15 0.9%

2060 7,308 44 0.6% 39.4 1,419 10 0.7% 3,778 16 0.4% 1,603 16 1.0%

2061 7,352 43 0.6% 39.5 1,428 9 0.7% 3,791 13 0.4% 1,622 19 1.2%

2062 7,394 42 0.6% 39.5 1,437 8 0.6% 3,801 10 0.3% 1,644 22 1.4%

2063 7,434 40 0.5% 39.6 1,443 7 0.5% 3,812 10 0.3% 1,666 22 1.3%

2064 7,472 38 0.5% 39.7 1,449 6 0.4% 3,828 17 0.4% 1,681 15 0.9%

2065 7,509 37 0.5% 39.8 1,453 4 0.3% 3,856 28 0.7% 1,684 3 0.2%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 57

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 62: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Garfield: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Garfield: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

58 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 63: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Garfield Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Garfield 50 33 17 -47 -302016 Garfield 53 42 11 15 262017 Garfield 75 51 24 58 822018 Garfield 76 53 24 60 842019 Garfield 77 54 23 58 812020 Garfield 78 55 23 56 792021 Garfield 79 49 30 47 772022 Garfield 80 50 30 40 692023 Garfield 80 51 29 34 632024 Garfield 80 52 29 32 612025 Garfield 81 53 28 31 592026 Garfield 81 54 28 35 622027 Garfield 82 55 27 36 632028 Garfield 82 56 27 35 612029 Garfield 83 57 26 33 592030 Garfield 84 58 26 31 572031 Garfield 84 59 25 34 592032 Garfield 85 60 24 36 602033 Garfield 85 61 24 31 542034 Garfield 85 62 23 23 462035 Garfield 85 63 22 18 392036 Garfield 85 64 21 14 352037 Garfield 85 65 20 11 312038 Garfield 85 66 19 9 282039 Garfield 86 67 18 8 262040 Garfield 86 68 18 8 272041 Garfield 87 68 19 10 282042 Garfield 88 69 19 9 282043 Garfield 89 69 20 10 292044 Garfield 90 70 20 9 302045 Garfield 91 70 21 9 312046 Garfield 92 70 22 9 312047 Garfield 93 70 23 10 332048 Garfield 94 70 24 10 342049 Garfield 95 70 25 11 362050 Garfield 95 69 26 12 382051 Garfield 96 69 27 13 402052 Garfield 96 69 28 14 422053 Garfield 97 68 29 15 432054 Garfield 97 68 30 14 442055 Garfield 98 67 31 14 452056 Garfield 98 67 31 14 452057 Garfield 99 67 32 13 452058 Garfield 99 66 33 13 452059 Garfield 99 66 33 12 452060 Garfield 100 66 33 11 442061 Garfield 100 66 34 10 432062 Garfield 100 66 34 8 422063 Garfield 101 67 34 6 402064 Garfield 101 67 34 4 382065 Garfield 101 67 34 3 37

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 59

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 64: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Garfield: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Garfield: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

60 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 65: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Garfield Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 3,420 2,048 2.432016 3,514 94 2.8% 2,073 25 1.2% 2.422017 3,599 85 2.4% 2,097 23 1.1% 2.432018 3,675 76 2.1% 2,118 22 1.0% 2.442019 3,744 69 1.9% 2,155 37 1.7% 2.442020 3,807 63 1.7% 2,193 38 1.8% 2.432021 3,864 58 1.5% 2,229 37 1.7% 2.422022 3,918 54 1.4% 2,257 28 1.2% 2.422023 3,969 51 1.3% 2,294 37 1.6% 2.412024 4,017 48 1.2% 2,316 22 1.0% 2.412025 4,063 46 1.1% 2,351 35 1.5% 2.402026 4,107 44 1.1% 2,371 20 0.9% 2.412027 4,149 42 1.0% 2,401 30 1.3% 2.402028 4,190 41 1.0% 2,440 39 1.6% 2.392029 4,231 40 1.0% 2,464 24 1.0% 2.392030 4,270 40 0.9% 2,467 3 0.1% 2.412031 4,309 39 0.9% 2,490 23 0.9% 2.412032 4,348 39 0.9% 2,525 35 1.4% 2.402033 4,386 38 0.9% 2,536 11 0.4% 2.412034 4,424 38 0.9% 2,544 8 0.3% 2.422035 4,461 37 0.8% 2,561 17 0.7% 2.412036 4,498 37 0.8% 2,593 32 1.2% 2.402037 4,534 36 0.8% 2,615 23 0.9% 2.392038 4,570 36 0.8% 2,610 (6) -0.2% 2.402039 4,606 36 0.8% 2,619 9 0.3% 2.402040 4,641 35 0.8% 2,639 20 0.8% 2.392041 4,676 35 0.8% 2,652 13 0.5% 2.392042 4,711 35 0.7% 2,668 16 0.6% 2.392043 4,746 35 0.7% 2,660 (8) -0.3% 2.402044 4,780 34 0.7% 2,684 23 0.9% 2.392045 4,814 34 0.7% 2,698 14 0.5% 2.392046 4,848 34 0.7% 2,705 7 0.3% 2.402047 4,882 34 0.7% 2,717 12 0.4% 2.402048 4,915 34 0.7% 2,728 12 0.4% 2.402049 4,949 33 0.7% 2,745 17 0.6% 2.402050 4,982 33 0.7% 2,768 23 0.9% 2.392051 5,015 33 0.7% 2,772 3 0.1% 2.402052 5,047 33 0.7% 2,792 21 0.8% 2.402053 5,080 33 0.6% 2,800 8 0.3% 2.412054 5,112 32 0.6% 2,818 18 0.6% 2.412055 5,144 32 0.6% 2,821 3 0.1% 2.422056 5,176 32 0.6% 2,843 21 0.8% 2.422057 5,208 32 0.6% 2,859 17 0.6% 2.422058 5,240 32 0.6% 2,875 16 0.5% 2.422059 5,271 31 0.6% 2,902 27 1.0% 2.422060 5,302 31 0.6% 2,913 11 0.4% 2.422061 5,333 31 0.6% 2,947 34 1.2% 2.412062 5,363 31 0.6% 2,978 31 1.0% 2.402063 5,393 30 0.6% 2,992 14 0.5% 2.402064 5,423 30 0.6% 3,005 13 0.4% 2.402065 5,453 30 0.5% 3,026 21 0.7% 2.40

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 61

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 66: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

62 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 67: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Grand County

Table 1: Grand Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 9,757 41.2 1,623 5,978 1,536

2016 9,933 176 1.8% 41.6 1,672 49 3.0% 6,045 68 1.1% 1,630 94 6.1%

2017 10,098 165 1.7% 41.9 1,705 33 2.0% 6,097 52 0.9% 1,730 100 6.1%

2018 10,259 161 1.6% 42.1 1,732 27 1.6% 6,149 52 0.8% 1,830 100 5.8%

2019 10,412 153 1.5% 42.5 1,774 41 2.4% 6,182 33 0.5% 1,940 111 6.0%

2020 10,554 142 1.4% 42.8 1,794 20 1.1% 6,256 74 1.2% 2,009 69 3.5%

2021 10,697 143 1.4% 43.2 1,789 (4) -0.2% 6,311 55 0.9% 2,099 90 4.5%

2022 10,831 133 1.2% 43.6 1,783 (7) -0.4% 6,360 49 0.8% 2,192 93 4.4%

2023 10,958 127 1.2% 44.0 1,773 (9) -0.5% 6,416 56 0.9% 2,275 83 3.8%

2024 11,076 118 1.1% 44.4 1,759 (14) -0.8% 6,472 56 0.9% 2,354 79 3.5%

2025 11,182 106 1.0% 44.9 1,746 (13) -0.7% 6,506 34 0.5% 2,439 85 3.6%

2026 11,296 114 1.0% 45.3 1,726 (20) -1.1% 6,561 55 0.8% 2,517 78 3.2%

2027 11,401 106 0.9% 45.8 1,691 (35) -2.0% 6,629 68 1.0% 2,587 70 2.8%

2028 11,503 102 0.9% 46.2 1,651 (40) -2.4% 6,700 72 1.1% 2,655 67 2.6%

2029 11,602 99 0.9% 46.6 1,608 (43) -2.6% 6,775 74 1.1% 2,718 63 2.4%

2030 11,695 94 0.8% 47.1 1,574 (34) -2.1% 6,851 77 1.1% 2,764 46 1.7%

2031 11,787 92 0.8% 47.5 1,545 (29) -1.8% 6,933 82 1.2% 2,797 34 1.2%

2032 11,885 98 0.8% 47.8 1,507 (38) -2.5% 7,027 94 1.4% 2,834 36 1.3%

2033 11,988 103 0.9% 48.2 1,483 (25) -1.6% 7,111 84 1.2% 2,870 37 1.3%

2034 12,095 107 0.9% 48.5 1,484 1 0.1% 7,171 60 0.8% 2,909 39 1.4%

2035 12,203 108 0.9% 48.8 1,487 3 0.2% 7,220 49 0.7% 2,960 51 1.7%

2036 12,311 107 0.9% 49.1 1,492 5 0.3% 7,251 31 0.4% 3,026 66 2.2%

2037 12,420 109 0.9% 49.3 1,500 8 0.6% 7,285 34 0.5% 3,088 62 2.0%

2038 12,529 109 0.9% 49.5 1,511 11 0.8% 7,318 33 0.4% 3,150 62 2.0%

2039 12,637 109 0.9% 49.7 1,525 14 0.9% 7,347 30 0.4% 3,214 64 2.0%

2040 12,745 107 0.9% 49.8 1,541 16 1.0% 7,377 30 0.4% 3,276 62 1.9%

2041 12,851 107 0.8% 50.0 1,558 17 1.1% 7,417 40 0.5% 3,327 51 1.6%

2042 12,957 106 0.8% 50.1 1,575 18 1.1% 7,444 27 0.4% 3,391 64 1.9%

2043 13,062 105 0.8% 50.3 1,593 17 1.1% 7,467 23 0.3% 3,459 68 2.0%

2044 13,165 103 0.8% 50.3 1,609 16 1.0% 7,487 20 0.3% 3,530 71 2.1%

2045 13,266 101 0.8% 50.4 1,624 15 0.9% 7,486 (0) 0.0% 3,621 91 2.6%

2046 13,365 98 0.7% 50.5 1,637 13 0.8% 7,487 1 0.0% 3,710 90 2.5%

2047 13,460 96 0.7% 50.6 1,647 10 0.6% 7,482 (5) -0.1% 3,805 95 2.6%

2048 13,555 94 0.7% 50.7 1,655 8 0.5% 7,473 (9) -0.1% 3,905 100 2.6%

2049 13,647 92 0.7% 50.7 1,659 5 0.3% 7,477 4 0.0% 3,992 87 2.2%

2050 13,736 89 0.7% 50.8 1,661 2 0.1% 7,480 3 0.0% 4,080 88 2.2%

2051 13,823 87 0.6% 50.9 1,659 (1) -0.1% 7,485 5 0.1% 4,166 86 2.1%

2052 13,907 84 0.6% 51.0 1,655 (4) -0.3% 7,504 19 0.2% 4,238 72 1.7%

2053 13,988 81 0.6% 51.1 1,648 (7) -0.4% 7,535 31 0.4% 4,295 57 1.4%

2054 14,065 77 0.6% 51.3 1,639 (9) -0.6% 7,562 27 0.4% 4,355 60 1.4%

2055 14,139 74 0.5% 51.4 1,628 (11) -0.7% 7,594 32 0.4% 4,408 53 1.2%

2056 14,211 72 0.5% 51.6 1,616 (12) -0.7% 7,626 31 0.4% 4,459 51 1.2%

2057 14,280 69 0.5% 51.7 1,604 (12) -0.7% 7,655 29 0.4% 4,509 50 1.1%

2058 14,348 68 0.5% 51.9 1,593 (11) -0.7% 7,691 36 0.5% 4,550 41 0.9%

2059 14,415 67 0.5% 52.1 1,583 (10) -0.6% 7,736 45 0.6% 4,579 29 0.6%

2060 14,480 66 0.5% 52.2 1,574 (9) -0.6% 7,776 41 0.5% 4,610 31 0.7%

2061 14,546 65 0.5% 52.4 1,567 (7) -0.4% 7,808 32 0.4% 4,647 37 0.8%

2062 14,610 64 0.4% 52.7 1,562 (5) -0.3% 7,840 32 0.4% 4,681 34 0.7%

2063 14,673 63 0.4% 52.9 1,559 (3) -0.2% 7,878 38 0.5% 4,707 25 0.5%

2064 14,735 62 0.4% 53.2 1,558 (1) -0.1% 7,913 35 0.4% 4,732 25 0.5%

2065 14,794 59 0.4% 53.4 1,559 1 0.1% 7,940 27 0.3% 4,761 29 0.6%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 63

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 68: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Grand: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Grand: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

64 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 69: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Grand Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Grand 117 80 37 93 1302016 Grand 94 67 27 149 1762017 Grand 100 81 19 146 1652018 Grand 99 83 16 145 1612019 Grand 99 86 12 141 1532020 Grand 98 89 9 133 1422021 Grand 98 80 18 125 1432022 Grand 98 83 15 118 1332023 Grand 98 85 13 114 1272024 Grand 98 88 11 108 1182025 Grand 99 90 9 97 1062026 Grand 99 93 6 108 1142027 Grand 100 96 4 101 1062028 Grand 101 99 2 100 1022029 Grand 102 102 0 98 992030 Grand 104 105 -1 95 942031 Grand 105 108 -3 95 922032 Grand 106 112 -5 103 982033 Grand 108 115 -7 110 1032034 Grand 109 118 -9 116 1072035 Grand 110 122 -12 120 1082036 Grand 110 125 -15 122 1072037 Grand 110 128 -18 127 1092038 Grand 110 132 -22 131 1092039 Grand 110 135 -25 134 1092040 Grand 109 138 -29 137 1072041 Grand 108 141 -33 140 1072042 Grand 107 144 -37 143 1062043 Grand 106 147 -41 146 1052044 Grand 105 150 -45 148 1032045 Grand 104 152 -48 149 1012046 Grand 103 155 -51 150 982047 Grand 103 157 -54 150 962048 Grand 102 159 -57 151 942049 Grand 101 160 -59 151 922050 Grand 101 162 -61 150 892051 Grand 101 163 -63 150 872052 Grand 101 165 -64 148 842053 Grand 101 166 -66 146 812054 Grand 101 168 -67 144 772055 Grand 102 169 -68 142 742056 Grand 102 171 -69 140 722057 Grand 103 172 -70 139 692058 Grand 103 174 -71 139 682059 Grand 104 176 -72 139 672060 Grand 105 178 -73 139 662061 Grand 105 181 -75 140 652062 Grand 106 183 -77 141 642063 Grand 106 186 -79 143 632064 Grand 107 188 -82 144 622065 Grand 107 191 -84 144 59

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 65

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 70: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Grand: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Grand: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

66 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 71: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Grand Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 7,569 4,270 2.252016 7,824 255 3.4% 4,365 96 2.2% 2.242017 8,062 238 3.0% 4,460 94 2.2% 2.232018 8,271 209 2.6% 4,566 106 2.4% 2.212019 8,459 188 2.3% 4,639 73 1.6% 2.212020 8,628 169 2.0% 4,728 89 1.9% 2.202021 8,783 155 1.8% 4,814 86 1.8% 2.192022 8,929 146 1.7% 4,905 91 1.9% 2.172023 9,067 138 1.5% 4,988 83 1.7% 2.162024 9,199 132 1.5% 5,081 93 1.9% 2.142025 9,326 127 1.4% 5,177 96 1.9% 2.122026 9,449 123 1.3% 5,256 79 1.5% 2.112027 9,569 120 1.3% 5,320 64 1.2% 2.112028 9,686 117 1.2% 5,409 89 1.7% 2.092029 9,802 115 1.2% 5,508 99 1.8% 2.072030 9,916 114 1.2% 5,576 68 1.2% 2.062031 10,029 113 1.1% 5,656 80 1.4% 2.052032 10,140 111 1.1% 5,734 78 1.4% 2.042033 10,250 110 1.1% 5,792 58 1.0% 2.032034 10,359 109 1.1% 5,868 76 1.3% 2.032035 10,466 107 1.0% 5,955 87 1.5% 2.012036 10,572 106 1.0% 6,011 56 0.9% 2.012037 10,677 105 1.0% 6,087 75 1.3% 2.002038 10,780 104 1.0% 6,167 80 1.3% 1.992039 10,883 103 1.0% 6,225 58 0.9% 1.992040 10,986 102 0.9% 6,300 75 1.2% 1.982041 11,088 102 0.9% 6,364 64 1.0% 1.982042 11,189 102 0.9% 6,446 83 1.3% 1.972043 11,291 101 0.9% 6,507 60 0.9% 1.972044 11,391 101 0.9% 6,568 61 0.9% 1.962045 11,492 100 0.9% 6,616 49 0.7% 1.962046 11,592 100 0.9% 6,693 76 1.2% 1.952047 11,692 100 0.9% 6,751 58 0.9% 1.952048 11,791 99 0.9% 6,823 72 1.1% 1.942049 11,890 99 0.8% 6,886 63 0.9% 1.942050 11,989 99 0.8% 6,914 28 0.4% 1.942051 12,088 99 0.8% 6,981 67 1.0% 1.942052 12,186 98 0.8% 7,039 58 0.8% 1.932053 12,285 98 0.8% 7,091 51 0.7% 1.932054 12,383 98 0.8% 7,145 54 0.8% 1.922055 12,480 98 0.8% 7,212 68 0.9% 1.922056 12,578 97 0.8% 7,266 53 0.7% 1.912057 12,675 97 0.8% 7,321 56 0.8% 1.912058 12,772 97 0.8% 7,363 41 0.6% 1.912059 12,868 96 0.8% 7,404 42 0.6% 1.902060 12,964 96 0.7% 7,445 40 0.5% 1.902061 13,060 96 0.7% 7,484 39 0.5% 1.902062 13,155 95 0.7% 7,529 45 0.6% 1.902063 13,250 95 0.7% 7,588 59 0.8% 1.892064 13,344 94 0.7% 7,640 52 0.7% 1.882065 13,437 93 0.7% 7,680 39 0.5% 1.88

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 67

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 72: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

68 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 73: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Iron County

Table 1: Iron Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 49,406 27.5 10,159 29,438 5,642

2016 50,742 1,336 2.7% 27.7 10,364 205 2.0% 30,255 816 2.8% 5,942 300 5.3%

2017 51,782 1,040 2.0% 28.1 10,410 47 0.5% 30,818 563 1.9% 6,398 456 7.7%

2018 52,882 1,100 2.1% 28.5 10,468 58 0.6% 31,393 575 1.9% 6,878 480 7.5%

2019 53,994 1,113 2.1% 28.9 10,555 87 0.8% 31,991 598 1.9% 7,302 424 6.2%

2020 55,056 1,062 2.0% 29.3 10,671 116 1.1% 32,524 533 1.7% 7,735 433 5.9%

2021 56,119 1,062 1.9% 29.7 10,763 92 0.9% 33,048 524 1.6% 8,151 416 5.4%

2022 57,135 1,016 1.8% 30.0 10,734 (30) -0.3% 33,627 579 1.8% 8,540 389 4.8%

2023 58,109 975 1.7% 30.3 10,716 (18) -0.2% 34,181 554 1.6% 8,911 370 4.3%

2024 59,031 922 1.6% 30.5 10,718 2 0.0% 34,705 524 1.5% 9,248 338 3.8%

2025 59,900 868 1.5% 30.7 10,742 24 0.2% 35,213 508 1.5% 9,536 288 3.1%

2026 60,723 824 1.4% 30.9 10,749 6 0.1% 35,746 533 1.5% 9,775 239 2.5%

2027 61,523 800 1.3% 31.1 10,763 14 0.1% 36,284 538 1.5% 9,981 206 2.1%

2028 62,320 797 1.3% 31.3 10,734 (29) -0.3% 36,858 575 1.6% 10,190 209 2.1%

2029 63,110 790 1.3% 31.5 10,742 8 0.1% 37,399 540 1.5% 10,388 198 1.9%

2030 63,898 788 1.2% 31.7 10,796 54 0.5% 37,923 524 1.4% 10,554 166 1.6%

2031 64,676 778 1.2% 31.9 10,845 49 0.5% 38,470 547 1.4% 10,695 140 1.3%

2032 65,458 782 1.2% 32.1 10,901 55 0.5% 39,012 542 1.4% 10,836 142 1.3%

2033 66,248 790 1.2% 32.3 10,937 36 0.3% 39,587 575 1.5% 10,970 134 1.2%

2034 67,032 784 1.2% 32.5 11,014 78 0.7% 40,108 521 1.3% 11,112 142 1.3%

2035 67,803 771 1.1% 32.7 11,133 118 1.1% 40,567 459 1.1% 11,266 154 1.4%

2036 68,563 760 1.1% 32.8 11,248 115 1.0% 41,013 446 1.1% 11,431 165 1.5%

2037 69,307 744 1.1% 33.0 11,357 110 1.0% 41,474 461 1.1% 11,574 143 1.3%

2038 70,036 729 1.1% 33.3 11,463 106 0.9% 41,959 485 1.2% 11,687 114 1.0%

2039 70,752 716 1.0% 33.5 11,565 102 0.9% 42,461 502 1.2% 11,780 93 0.8%

2040 71,457 705 1.0% 33.7 11,662 97 0.8% 42,946 485 1.1% 11,889 109 0.9%

2041 72,148 691 1.0% 33.9 11,755 93 0.8% 43,423 476 1.1% 12,003 115 1.0%

2042 72,828 680 0.9% 34.1 11,844 89 0.8% 43,876 453 1.0% 12,141 137 1.1%

2043 73,496 668 0.9% 34.4 11,928 84 0.7% 44,287 411 0.9% 12,316 176 1.4%

2044 74,158 662 0.9% 34.6 12,008 80 0.7% 44,708 421 1.0% 12,483 166 1.4%

2045 74,812 654 0.9% 34.9 12,080 72 0.6% 45,127 419 0.9% 12,653 170 1.4%

2046 75,459 647 0.9% 35.1 12,142 62 0.5% 45,541 414 0.9% 12,829 177 1.4%

2047 76,102 643 0.9% 35.3 12,195 53 0.4% 45,984 444 1.0% 12,981 151 1.2%

2048 76,748 646 0.8% 35.5 12,239 44 0.4% 46,424 440 1.0% 13,144 163 1.3%

2049 77,401 654 0.9% 35.6 12,275 36 0.3% 46,876 452 1.0% 13,307 163 1.2%

2050 78,069 667 0.9% 35.8 12,303 28 0.2% 47,311 435 0.9% 13,503 196 1.5%

2051 78,752 683 0.9% 36.0 12,324 22 0.2% 47,740 429 0.9% 13,721 219 1.6%

2052 79,447 695 0.9% 36.2 12,341 16 0.1% 48,155 415 0.9% 13,967 245 1.8%

2053 80,151 704 0.9% 36.3 12,353 12 0.1% 48,546 392 0.8% 14,244 277 2.0%

2054 80,863 712 0.9% 36.4 12,363 10 0.1% 48,845 298 0.6% 14,621 377 2.6%

2055 81,589 725 0.9% 36.5 12,374 11 0.1% 49,070 226 0.5% 15,079 458 3.1%

2056 82,331 742 0.9% 36.7 12,388 14 0.1% 49,235 165 0.3% 15,608 529 3.5%

2057 83,089 758 0.9% 36.8 12,407 19 0.2% 49,530 295 0.6% 16,015 407 2.6%

2058 83,863 775 0.9% 36.9 12,433 26 0.2% 49,888 357 0.7% 16,367 352 2.2%

2059 84,655 792 0.9% 37.0 12,467 34 0.3% 50,283 396 0.8% 16,688 321 2.0%

2060 85,459 804 0.9% 37.2 12,510 43 0.3% 50,685 402 0.8% 17,005 316 1.9%

2061 86,274 814 1.0% 37.3 12,562 52 0.4% 51,029 343 0.7% 17,381 377 2.2%

2062 87,099 825 1.0% 37.5 12,623 62 0.5% 51,345 317 0.6% 17,786 404 2.3%

2063 87,929 830 1.0% 37.6 12,694 70 0.6% 51,676 330 0.6% 18,173 387 2.2%

2064 88,764 834 0.9% 37.7 12,773 79 0.6% 51,998 322 0.6% 18,565 392 2.2%

2065 89,599 835 0.9% 37.9 12,859 86 0.7% 52,299 301 0.6% 18,974 409 2.2%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 69

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 74: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

3,500 2,500 1,500 500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Iron: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Iron: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

70 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 75: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Iron Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Iron 860 296 564 651 1,2152016 Iron 824 334 490 846 1,3362017 Iron 794 303 490 550 1,0402018 Iron 815 323 493 607 1,1002019 Iron 834 344 490 623 1,1132020 Iron 849 365 485 577 1,0622021 Iron 863 335 528 534 1,0622022 Iron 876 352 524 492 1,0162023 Iron 887 367 519 456 9752024 Iron 897 383 515 407 9222025 Iron 906 397 509 360 8682026 Iron 915 411 504 320 8242027 Iron 924 424 500 300 8002028 Iron 934 437 497 300 7972029 Iron 943 450 493 297 7902030 Iron 952 464 489 299 7882031 Iron 961 477 484 294 7782032 Iron 970 490 480 302 7822033 Iron 979 504 475 315 7902034 Iron 987 517 470 315 7842035 Iron 994 531 464 307 7712036 Iron 999 543 456 304 7602037 Iron 1,003 556 447 297 7442038 Iron 1,006 568 438 291 7292039 Iron 1,008 580 428 288 7162040 Iron 1,008 591 417 287 7052041 Iron 1,007 601 406 285 6912042 Iron 1,006 611 394 286 6802043 Iron 1,004 621 383 285 6682044 Iron 1,002 630 373 289 6622045 Iron 1,001 638 363 291 6542046 Iron 1,001 645 356 291 6472047 Iron 1,001 651 350 293 6432048 Iron 1,003 657 345 301 6462049 Iron 1,005 663 343 311 6542050 Iron 1,009 668 341 326 6672051 Iron 1,013 672 341 342 6832052 Iron 1,019 676 343 352 6952053 Iron 1,025 680 345 359 7042054 Iron 1,032 683 349 364 7122055 Iron 1,039 686 353 372 7252056 Iron 1,047 690 357 385 7422057 Iron 1,055 694 361 396 7582058 Iron 1,064 698 366 409 7752059 Iron 1,072 703 370 423 7922060 Iron 1,081 708 373 431 8042061 Iron 1,090 714 375 439 8142062 Iron 1,098 721 377 449 8252063 Iron 1,106 729 377 453 8302064 Iron 1,114 739 375 459 8342065 Iron 1,121 749 372 463 835

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 71

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 76: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Iron: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Iron: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

72 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 77: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Iron Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 23,894 16,690 2.892016 24,620 726 3.0% 17,265 575 3.4% 2.872017 25,264 644 2.6% 17,812 547 3.2% 2.842018 25,834 571 2.3% 18,372 559 3.1% 2.822019 26,365 531 2.1% 18,953 581 3.2% 2.792020 26,858 493 1.9% 19,498 545 2.9% 2.762021 27,320 462 1.7% 20,039 542 2.8% 2.742022 27,763 444 1.6% 20,561 522 2.6% 2.722023 28,196 432 1.6% 21,075 514 2.5% 2.702024 28,619 424 1.5% 21,549 474 2.2% 2.682025 29,036 417 1.5% 21,996 448 2.1% 2.662026 29,448 412 1.4% 22,411 415 1.9% 2.652027 29,856 408 1.4% 22,797 386 1.7% 2.642028 30,260 404 1.4% 23,176 379 1.7% 2.632029 30,661 401 1.3% 23,545 368 1.6% 2.622030 31,058 397 1.3% 23,931 386 1.6% 2.612031 31,451 393 1.3% 24,340 409 1.7% 2.602032 31,839 388 1.2% 24,744 404 1.7% 2.592033 32,222 383 1.2% 25,145 401 1.6% 2.582034 32,599 377 1.2% 25,542 397 1.6% 2.572035 32,971 372 1.1% 25,902 360 1.4% 2.562036 33,338 367 1.1% 26,255 353 1.4% 2.562037 33,700 362 1.1% 26,610 354 1.3% 2.552038 34,059 359 1.1% 26,967 357 1.3% 2.542039 34,415 356 1.0% 27,306 339 1.3% 2.532040 34,769 354 1.0% 27,629 323 1.2% 2.532041 35,121 352 1.0% 27,961 331 1.2% 2.522042 35,471 350 1.0% 28,279 319 1.1% 2.522043 35,820 349 1.0% 28,604 325 1.1% 2.512044 36,167 347 1.0% 28,928 323 1.1% 2.512045 36,513 346 1.0% 29,242 314 1.1% 2.502046 36,857 344 0.9% 29,554 312 1.1% 2.502047 37,200 343 0.9% 29,857 303 1.0% 2.492048 37,541 341 0.9% 30,149 292 1.0% 2.492049 37,881 340 0.9% 30,480 331 1.1% 2.482050 38,219 339 0.9% 30,804 324 1.1% 2.482051 38,557 337 0.9% 31,152 348 1.1% 2.472052 38,893 336 0.9% 31,523 371 1.2% 2.462053 39,228 335 0.9% 31,899 376 1.2% 2.462054 39,562 334 0.9% 32,278 379 1.2% 2.452055 39,895 333 0.8% 32,663 385 1.2% 2.442056 40,226 331 0.8% 33,026 363 1.1% 2.442057 40,556 330 0.8% 33,409 383 1.2% 2.432058 40,884 328 0.8% 33,813 404 1.2% 2.432059 41,211 327 0.8% 34,214 401 1.2% 2.422060 41,536 325 0.8% 34,633 418 1.2% 2.412061 41,859 323 0.8% 35,056 423 1.2% 2.412062 42,180 321 0.8% 35,483 428 1.2% 2.402063 42,499 318 0.8% 35,911 428 1.2% 2.402064 42,814 315 0.7% 36,357 446 1.2% 2.392065 43,126 312 0.7% 36,796 438 1.2% 2.38

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 73

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 78: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

74 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 79: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Juab County

Table 1: Juab Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 11,071 30.7 2,941 5,921 1,262

2016 11,541 470 4.2% 30.7 3,042 101 3.4% 6,176 255 4.3% 1,339 78 6.1%

2017 12,047 506 4.4% 30.8 3,144 101 3.3% 6,512 336 5.4% 1,385 46 3.5%

2018 12,542 495 4.1% 30.9 3,215 71 2.3% 6,837 325 5.0% 1,438 52 3.8%

2019 13,022 480 3.8% 30.9 3,325 110 3.4% 7,144 307 4.5% 1,484 47 3.2%

2020 13,498 476 3.7% 30.9 3,394 69 2.1% 7,460 317 4.4% 1,539 54 3.7%

2021 13,978 480 3.6% 31.0 3,486 92 2.7% 7,759 299 4.0% 1,619 80 5.2%

2022 14,448 470 3.4% 31.2 3,553 67 1.9% 8,051 291 3.8% 1,693 74 4.6%

2023 14,911 464 3.2% 31.5 3,607 53 1.5% 8,342 291 3.6% 1,770 77 4.5%

2024 15,359 447 3.0% 31.8 3,642 36 1.0% 8,643 302 3.6% 1,840 70 3.9%

2025 15,789 430 2.8% 32.1 3,684 42 1.1% 8,921 278 3.2% 1,914 75 4.1%

2026 16,223 434 2.7% 32.5 3,704 20 0.6% 9,216 295 3.3% 1,998 84 4.4%

2027 16,646 424 2.6% 32.9 3,719 14 0.4% 9,507 292 3.2% 2,084 86 4.3%

2028 17,067 421 2.5% 33.2 3,752 33 0.9% 9,776 269 2.8% 2,173 90 4.3%

2029 17,491 424 2.5% 33.5 3,792 41 1.1% 10,047 271 2.8% 2,257 84 3.8%

2030 17,911 420 2.4% 33.8 3,849 57 1.5% 10,307 260 2.6% 2,332 75 3.3%

2031 18,329 418 2.3% 34.1 3,929 80 2.1% 10,543 235 2.3% 2,408 76 3.2%

2032 18,736 407 2.2% 34.4 3,985 56 1.4% 10,791 248 2.4% 2,484 76 3.2%

2033 19,138 402 2.1% 34.7 4,053 67 1.7% 11,031 240 2.2% 2,553 69 2.8%

2034 19,536 398 2.1% 35.0 4,094 41 1.0% 11,281 251 2.3% 2,633 80 3.1%

2035 19,925 389 2.0% 35.3 4,156 62 1.5% 11,492 211 1.9% 2,726 93 3.5%

2036 20,305 380 1.9% 35.5 4,227 71 1.7% 11,669 177 1.5% 2,839 113 4.1%

2037 20,674 368 1.8% 35.8 4,296 69 1.6% 11,838 169 1.5% 2,951 113 4.0%

2038 21,027 354 1.7% 36.0 4,360 64 1.5% 12,005 167 1.4% 3,061 110 3.7%

2039 21,366 339 1.6% 36.3 4,418 58 1.3% 12,172 167 1.4% 3,164 103 3.4%

2040 21,690 324 1.5% 36.6 4,470 53 1.2% 12,343 171 1.4% 3,257 93 2.9%

2041 22,014 323 1.5% 36.9 4,520 50 1.1% 12,503 159 1.3% 3,365 108 3.3%

2042 22,338 324 1.5% 37.2 4,569 49 1.1% 12,646 143 1.1% 3,492 127 3.8%

2043 22,662 324 1.4% 37.5 4,615 47 1.0% 12,783 136 1.1% 3,628 136 3.9%

2044 22,985 323 1.4% 37.7 4,661 45 1.0% 12,916 134 1.0% 3,767 139 3.8%

2045 23,307 322 1.4% 38.0 4,704 43 0.9% 13,045 129 1.0% 3,911 144 3.8%

2046 23,627 321 1.4% 38.3 4,744 41 0.9% 13,183 138 1.1% 4,046 135 3.5%

2047 23,946 319 1.3% 38.6 4,782 38 0.8% 13,345 162 1.2% 4,157 111 2.7%

2048 24,263 317 1.3% 39.0 4,817 35 0.7% 13,512 167 1.2% 4,264 106 2.6%

2049 24,578 315 1.3% 39.2 4,848 31 0.6% 13,686 175 1.3% 4,362 98 2.3%

2050 24,892 314 1.3% 39.5 4,876 28 0.6% 13,867 180 1.3% 4,455 94 2.1%

2051 25,208 316 1.3% 39.7 4,902 26 0.5% 14,047 180 1.3% 4,551 95 2.1%

2052 25,525 318 1.3% 39.9 4,927 25 0.5% 14,230 184 1.3% 4,645 94 2.1%

2053 25,846 320 1.3% 40.0 4,952 24 0.5% 14,421 191 1.3% 4,732 88 1.9%

2054 26,170 324 1.3% 40.2 4,977 25 0.5% 14,619 198 1.4% 4,815 83 1.7%

2055 26,498 328 1.3% 40.3 5,004 27 0.5% 14,819 199 1.4% 4,898 83 1.7%

2056 26,831 333 1.3% 40.5 5,033 29 0.6% 15,008 190 1.3% 4,992 94 1.9%

2057 27,170 339 1.3% 40.6 5,066 32 0.6% 15,163 155 1.0% 5,123 131 2.6%

2058 27,516 346 1.3% 40.8 5,102 36 0.7% 15,294 131 0.9% 5,281 158 3.1%

2059 27,869 353 1.3% 40.8 5,143 41 0.8% 15,417 123 0.8% 5,448 167 3.2%

2060 28,228 359 1.3% 40.9 5,188 45 0.9% 15,541 124 0.8% 5,615 167 3.1%

2061 28,592 364 1.3% 40.9 5,237 49 0.9% 15,678 138 0.9% 5,769 155 2.8%

2062 28,959 367 1.3% 41.0 5,289 53 1.0% 15,807 128 0.8% 5,933 164 2.8%

2063 29,328 369 1.3% 41.1 5,345 56 1.1% 15,947 140 0.9% 6,085 151 2.6%

2064 29,698 370 1.3% 41.2 5,403 58 1.1% 16,089 142 0.9% 6,234 149 2.4%

2065 30,069 371 1.2% 41.2 5,464 60 1.1% 16,225 136 0.8% 6,388 154 2.5%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 75

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 80: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

700 500 300 100 100 300 500 700

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Juab: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Juab: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

76 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 81: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Juab Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Juab 171 75 96 151 2472016 Juab 211 57 154 316 4702017 Juab 177 71 106 399 5062018 Juab 188 73 115 380 4952019 Juab 198 76 122 358 4802020 Juab 208 78 129 347 4762021 Juab 217 71 146 334 4802022 Juab 226 73 153 317 4702023 Juab 233 75 158 306 4642024 Juab 241 78 163 284 4472025 Juab 247 80 167 263 4302026 Juab 253 83 171 263 4342027 Juab 259 85 174 250 4242028 Juab 265 88 177 244 4212029 Juab 271 91 180 244 4242030 Juab 276 94 183 237 4202031 Juab 282 97 186 232 4182032 Juab 288 100 189 218 4072033 Juab 293 103 191 211 4022034 Juab 298 106 192 206 3982035 Juab 302 109 193 197 3892036 Juab 305 113 193 187 3802037 Juab 308 116 192 176 3682038 Juab 310 120 190 164 3542039 Juab 311 123 188 151 3392040 Juab 312 127 185 139 3242041 Juab 313 131 182 141 3232042 Juab 314 134 179 145 3242043 Juab 314 138 176 147 3242044 Juab 316 142 174 149 3232045 Juab 317 146 171 151 3222046 Juab 319 150 169 151 3212047 Juab 321 154 167 151 3192048 Juab 323 158 166 151 3172049 Juab 326 162 164 151 3152050 Juab 329 166 163 151 3142051 Juab 332 170 163 153 3162052 Juab 336 174 162 156 3182053 Juab 339 178 161 159 3202054 Juab 343 182 161 163 3242055 Juab 347 186 161 167 3282056 Juab 351 190 160 172 3332057 Juab 355 195 160 179 3392058 Juab 359 199 160 186 3462059 Juab 364 204 160 193 3532060 Juab 368 208 159 199 3592061 Juab 372 213 159 205 3642062 Juab 376 218 158 209 3672063 Juab 380 222 157 212 3692064 Juab 383 227 156 214 3702065 Juab 387 232 155 216 371

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 77

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 82: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Juab: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Juab: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

78 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 83: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Juab Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 5,112 3,526 3.102016 5,250 138 2.7% 3,688 163 4.6% 3.092017 5,380 131 2.5% 3,856 168 4.6% 3.092018 5,502 122 2.3% 4,033 177 4.6% 3.072019 5,616 114 2.1% 4,200 168 4.2% 3.062020 5,723 107 1.9% 4,389 189 4.5% 3.042021 5,825 102 1.8% 4,577 188 4.3% 3.022022 5,925 100 1.7% 4,759 182 4.0% 3.002023 6,023 98 1.7% 4,940 180 3.8% 2.982024 6,119 96 1.6% 5,117 178 3.6% 2.972025 6,214 95 1.5% 5,306 189 3.7% 2.942026 6,307 93 1.5% 5,500 194 3.7% 2.912027 6,399 92 1.5% 5,686 186 3.4% 2.892028 6,489 90 1.4% 5,877 190 3.3% 2.872029 6,578 89 1.4% 6,072 196 3.3% 2.852030 6,665 88 1.3% 6,252 180 3.0% 2.832031 6,752 86 1.3% 6,427 175 2.8% 2.822032 6,837 85 1.3% 6,593 166 2.6% 2.812033 6,920 83 1.2% 6,778 185 2.8% 2.792034 7,002 82 1.2% 6,962 184 2.7% 2.772035 7,083 81 1.2% 7,152 190 2.7% 2.752036 7,163 80 1.1% 7,324 172 2.4% 2.742037 7,242 79 1.1% 7,493 169 2.3% 2.732038 7,320 78 1.1% 7,664 170 2.3% 2.712039 7,398 78 1.1% 7,808 145 1.9% 2.702040 7,475 77 1.0% 7,963 155 2.0% 2.692041 7,553 77 1.0% 8,110 147 1.8% 2.682042 7,630 77 1.0% 8,275 165 2.0% 2.672043 7,707 77 1.0% 8,440 165 2.0% 2.652044 7,783 77 1.0% 8,608 168 2.0% 2.642045 7,860 77 1.0% 8,760 152 1.8% 2.632046 7,937 77 1.0% 8,901 142 1.6% 2.622047 8,013 76 1.0% 9,051 149 1.7% 2.612048 8,089 76 1.0% 9,208 157 1.7% 2.602049 8,166 76 0.9% 9,363 155 1.7% 2.592050 8,242 76 0.9% 9,515 152 1.6% 2.582051 8,319 76 0.9% 9,677 163 1.7% 2.572052 8,395 77 0.9% 9,827 150 1.5% 2.562053 8,472 77 0.9% 9,983 156 1.6% 2.552054 8,549 77 0.9% 10,134 150 1.5% 2.552055 8,626 77 0.9% 10,282 149 1.5% 2.542056 8,703 77 0.9% 10,446 163 1.6% 2.532057 8,780 77 0.9% 10,613 168 1.6% 2.522058 8,857 77 0.9% 10,795 182 1.7% 2.512059 8,935 77 0.9% 10,969 173 1.6% 2.512060 9,012 78 0.9% 11,135 166 1.5% 2.502061 9,090 78 0.9% 11,300 166 1.5% 2.492062 9,167 77 0.9% 11,469 169 1.5% 2.492063 9,245 77 0.8% 11,622 152 1.3% 2.492064 9,322 77 0.8% 11,779 157 1.3% 2.492065 9,398 77 0.8% 11,945 166 1.4% 2.48

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 79

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 84: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

80 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 85: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Kane County

Table 1: Kane Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 7,271 43.7 1,335 3,969 1,568

2016 7,581 310 4.3% 43.4 1,386 51 3.8% 4,125 156 3.9% 1,650 82 5.2%

2017 7,733 152 2.0% 43.4 1,393 7 0.5% 4,148 23 0.6% 1,764 113 6.9%

2018 7,886 153 2.0% 43.5 1,391 (2) -0.1% 4,150 2 0.0% 1,892 128 7.3%

2019 8,031 145 1.8% 43.6 1,403 12 0.9% 4,149 (1) 0.0% 2,009 117 6.2%

2020 8,165 134 1.7% 43.8 1,406 3 0.2% 4,166 17 0.4% 2,104 95 4.7%

2021 8,291 126 1.5% 44.0 1,404 (2) -0.1% 4,197 32 0.8% 2,181 77 3.7%

2022 8,403 112 1.3% 44.2 1,412 8 0.5% 4,230 33 0.8% 2,247 66 3.0%

2023 8,505 102 1.2% 44.5 1,393 (19) -1.3% 4,284 53 1.3% 2,310 63 2.8%

2024 8,600 95 1.1% 44.7 1,382 (12) -0.8% 4,332 49 1.1% 2,363 53 2.3%

2025 8,684 85 1.0% 45.0 1,377 (5) -0.3% 4,368 35 0.8% 2,412 49 2.1%

2026 8,772 88 1.0% 45.1 1,385 7 0.5% 4,407 39 0.9% 2,447 35 1.5%

2027 8,862 90 1.0% 45.1 1,384 (1) -0.1% 4,441 35 0.8% 2,495 48 1.9%

2028 8,955 94 1.1% 45.2 1,390 6 0.5% 4,486 45 1.0% 2,528 33 1.3%

2029 9,053 98 1.1% 45.1 1,417 27 1.9% 4,521 35 0.8% 2,554 26 1.0%

2030 9,152 99 1.1% 45.1 1,438 21 1.5% 4,571 49 1.1% 2,573 19 0.7%

2031 9,253 101 1.1% 45.0 1,473 35 2.4% 4,614 44 1.0% 2,584 11 0.4%

2032 9,353 100 1.1% 44.8 1,503 30 2.1% 4,677 63 1.4% 2,581 (3) -0.1%

2033 9,447 94 1.0% 44.6 1,537 34 2.2% 4,740 62 1.3% 2,571 (10) -0.4%

2034 9,533 86 0.9% 44.5 1,569 32 2.1% 4,792 52 1.1% 2,567 (5) -0.2%

2035 9,611 78 0.8% 44.4 1,589 20 1.3% 4,838 46 1.0% 2,575 8 0.3%

2036 9,680 69 0.7% 44.5 1,606 17 1.1% 4,875 37 0.8% 2,588 13 0.5%

2037 9,743 62 0.6% 44.7 1,622 16 1.0% 4,920 44 0.9% 2,589 2 0.1%

2038 9,801 58 0.6% 44.8 1,638 16 1.0% 4,973 53 1.1% 2,579 (10) -0.4%

2039 9,856 55 0.6% 44.8 1,654 15 0.9% 5,025 52 1.1% 2,569 (11) -0.4%

2040 9,910 54 0.5% 44.8 1,668 15 0.9% 5,072 47 0.9% 2,562 (7) -0.3%

2041 9,963 54 0.5% 44.9 1,682 13 0.8% 5,111 39 0.8% 2,564 2 0.1%

2042 10,017 54 0.5% 44.9 1,693 12 0.7% 5,142 31 0.6% 2,575 11 0.4%

2043 10,072 55 0.5% 44.9 1,703 10 0.6% 5,170 28 0.5% 2,591 16 0.6%

2044 10,125 54 0.5% 44.9 1,711 8 0.5% 5,193 23 0.5% 2,611 20 0.8%

2045 10,179 53 0.5% 44.9 1,718 6 0.4% 5,203 9 0.2% 2,646 35 1.3%

2046 10,231 53 0.5% 44.9 1,722 4 0.3% 5,224 21 0.4% 2,670 24 0.9%

2047 10,283 52 0.5% 44.8 1,725 3 0.2% 5,250 26 0.5% 2,689 19 0.7%

2048 10,333 51 0.5% 44.9 1,726 1 0.1% 5,277 27 0.5% 2,708 18 0.7%

2049 10,384 51 0.5% 44.9 1,727 0 0.0% 5,306 29 0.6% 2,725 17 0.6%

2050 10,437 52 0.5% 45.1 1,727 0 0.0% 5,335 29 0.5% 2,743 18 0.7%

2051 10,493 56 0.5% 45.3 1,728 1 0.1% 5,367 32 0.6% 2,761 18 0.7%

2052 10,551 59 0.6% 45.5 1,730 2 0.1% 5,407 40 0.7% 2,772 11 0.4%

2053 10,611 60 0.6% 45.6 1,733 3 0.2% 5,455 48 0.9% 2,776 4 0.1%

2054 10,672 61 0.6% 45.7 1,738 5 0.3% 5,495 40 0.7% 2,787 12 0.4%

2055 10,736 64 0.6% 45.8 1,744 6 0.4% 5,533 38 0.7% 2,802 15 0.5%

2056 10,803 67 0.6% 45.9 1,753 8 0.5% 5,559 26 0.5% 2,829 27 1.0%

2057 10,874 70 0.6% 45.8 1,762 10 0.6% 5,556 (3) -0.1% 2,887 58 2.1%

2058 10,946 72 0.7% 45.8 1,773 11 0.6% 5,564 7 0.1% 2,936 49 1.7%

2059 11,019 73 0.7% 45.7 1,785 12 0.7% 5,589 25 0.5% 2,967 31 1.1%

2060 11,093 74 0.7% 45.5 1,798 13 0.7% 5,616 27 0.5% 2,997 29 1.0%

2061 11,167 74 0.7% 45.4 1,811 13 0.7% 5,639 23 0.4% 3,031 35 1.2%

2062 11,239 72 0.6% 45.4 1,823 13 0.7% 5,660 21 0.4% 3,066 35 1.2%

2063 11,309 70 0.6% 45.4 1,836 12 0.7% 5,689 29 0.5% 3,093 27 0.9%

2064 11,379 69 0.6% 45.4 1,848 12 0.7% 5,712 23 0.4% 3,125 32 1.0%

2065 11,446 67 0.6% 45.5 1,859 11 0.6% 5,735 23 0.4% 3,157 31 1.0%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 81

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 86: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Kane: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Kane: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

82 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 87: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Kane Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Kane 80 83 -3 8 52016 Kane 83 71 12 298 3102017 Kane 100 76 24 128 1522018 Kane 101 80 21 132 1532019 Kane 102 85 18 127 1452020 Kane 103 89 14 120 1342021 Kane 104 81 23 103 1262022 Kane 105 85 20 91 1122023 Kane 107 88 18 84 1022024 Kane 108 92 16 79 952025 Kane 109 95 14 71 852026 Kane 111 98 12 75 882027 Kane 113 101 11 78 902028 Kane 115 104 11 83 942029 Kane 117 108 10 88 982030 Kane 119 111 9 90 992031 Kane 121 114 7 93 1012032 Kane 123 117 6 94 1002033 Kane 124 120 4 90 942034 Kane 124 123 1 85 862035 Kane 124 126 -1 79 782036 Kane 124 128 -4 73 692037 Kane 124 131 -7 69 622038 Kane 123 133 -9 67 582039 Kane 123 135 -12 67 552040 Kane 123 137 -13 67 542041 Kane 124 138 -15 68 542042 Kane 124 140 -15 69 542043 Kane 125 141 -16 71 552044 Kane 126 141 -16 69 542045 Kane 126 142 -16 69 532046 Kane 127 142 -15 67 532047 Kane 128 142 -14 65 522048 Kane 129 142 -13 63 512049 Kane 130 141 -11 62 512050 Kane 131 141 -10 62 522051 Kane 132 140 -8 64 562052 Kane 133 139 -6 64 592053 Kane 134 138 -4 64 602054 Kane 135 137 -2 64 612055 Kane 136 137 0 64 642056 Kane 137 136 2 66 672057 Kane 138 135 3 67 702058 Kane 139 135 5 68 722059 Kane 140 135 6 68 732060 Kane 141 135 6 67 742061 Kane 142 135 7 68 742062 Kane 142 136 7 65 722063 Kane 143 136 6 64 702064 Kane 143 137 6 64 692065 Kane 143 138 5 62 67

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 83

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 88: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Kane: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Kane: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

84 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 89: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Kane Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 4,799 3,070 2.332016 4,937 138 2.9% 3,214 144 4.7% 2.322017 5,049 112 2.3% 3,298 83 2.6% 2.312018 5,139 90 1.8% 3,370 73 2.2% 2.302019 5,215 77 1.5% 3,438 68 2.0% 2.302020 5,283 67 1.3% 3,520 81 2.4% 2.282021 5,343 60 1.1% 3,595 75 2.1% 2.272022 5,399 56 1.0% 3,655 61 1.7% 2.262023 5,452 53 1.0% 3,720 65 1.8% 2.252024 5,503 52 0.9% 3,770 50 1.3% 2.242025 5,554 51 0.9% 3,825 55 1.5% 2.232026 5,606 52 0.9% 3,878 54 1.4% 2.222027 5,659 53 0.9% 3,922 43 1.1% 2.222028 5,713 55 1.0% 3,967 46 1.2% 2.222029 5,769 56 1.0% 4,006 39 1.0% 2.222030 5,827 57 1.0% 4,050 43 1.1% 2.222031 5,884 58 1.0% 4,082 33 0.8% 2.232032 5,942 57 1.0% 4,110 27 0.7% 2.242033 5,998 56 0.9% 4,146 37 0.9% 2.242034 6,053 55 0.9% 4,191 45 1.1% 2.242035 6,106 54 0.9% 4,232 41 1.0% 2.232036 6,158 52 0.9% 4,252 20 0.5% 2.242037 6,209 51 0.8% 4,259 7 0.2% 2.252038 6,259 50 0.8% 4,269 11 0.2% 2.252039 6,308 49 0.8% 4,296 27 0.6% 2.252040 6,356 48 0.8% 4,329 32 0.8% 2.252041 6,404 48 0.8% 4,359 30 0.7% 2.242042 6,452 47 0.7% 4,377 18 0.4% 2.242043 6,499 47 0.7% 4,377 (0) 0.0% 2.262044 6,545 46 0.7% 4,391 14 0.3% 2.262045 6,591 46 0.7% 4,423 32 0.7% 2.262046 6,636 45 0.7% 4,445 23 0.5% 2.252047 6,681 45 0.7% 4,470 25 0.6% 2.252048 6,725 44 0.7% 4,479 9 0.2% 2.262049 6,769 43 0.6% 4,495 16 0.4% 2.262050 6,811 43 0.6% 4,524 29 0.6% 2.262051 6,854 42 0.6% 4,547 23 0.5% 2.262052 6,895 42 0.6% 4,576 29 0.6% 2.262053 6,936 41 0.6% 4,600 24 0.5% 2.262054 6,976 40 0.6% 4,635 35 0.8% 2.262055 7,016 40 0.6% 4,675 39 0.8% 2.252056 7,055 39 0.6% 4,728 53 1.1% 2.242057 7,093 38 0.5% 4,763 35 0.7% 2.242058 7,131 38 0.5% 4,795 32 0.7% 2.242059 7,167 37 0.5% 4,823 28 0.6% 2.242060 7,204 36 0.5% 4,848 25 0.5% 2.242061 7,239 36 0.5% 4,877 29 0.6% 2.252062 7,274 35 0.5% 4,916 39 0.8% 2.242063 7,309 34 0.5% 4,968 52 1.1% 2.232064 7,342 34 0.5% 5,009 41 0.8% 2.232065 7,375 33 0.4% 5,033 24 0.5% 2.23

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 85

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 90: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

86 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 91: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Millard County

Table 1: Millard Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 13,104 35.0 2,992 7,094 2,021

2016 13,291 187 1.4% 35.1 3,014 22 0.7% 7,212 118 1.7% 2,061 40 2.0%

2017 13,389 98 0.7% 35.2 3,003 (11) -0.4% 7,274 62 0.9% 2,113 52 2.5%

2018 13,508 119 0.9% 35.4 3,008 5 0.2% 7,322 48 0.7% 2,185 71 3.4%

2019 13,643 135 1.0% 35.6 3,038 30 1.0% 7,348 26 0.4% 2,273 88 4.0%

2020 13,774 131 1.0% 35.7 3,038 0 0.0% 7,427 80 1.1% 2,323 51 2.2%

2021 13,914 140 1.0% 35.8 3,054 16 0.5% 7,476 49 0.7% 2,399 76 3.3%

2022 14,050 136 1.0% 35.9 3,041 (13) -0.4% 7,512 36 0.5% 2,494 95 4.0%

2023 14,177 127 0.9% 36.0 3,023 (17) -0.6% 7,547 35 0.5% 2,587 93 3.7%

2024 14,296 119 0.8% 36.1 3,007 (16) -0.5% 7,586 39 0.5% 2,670 83 3.2%

2025 14,403 107 0.8% 36.2 2,974 (33) -1.1% 7,646 60 0.8% 2,740 70 2.6%

2026 14,521 117 0.8% 36.4 2,954 (20) -0.7% 7,694 48 0.6% 2,819 79 2.9%

2027 14,639 118 0.8% 36.5 2,920 (34) -1.2% 7,784 90 1.2% 2,871 52 1.8%

2028 14,762 123 0.8% 36.7 2,900 (20) -0.7% 7,862 78 1.0% 2,925 54 1.9%

2029 14,887 125 0.8% 37.1 2,906 5 0.2% 7,933 70 0.9% 2,964 39 1.3%

2030 15,010 123 0.8% 37.4 2,925 19 0.6% 8,003 70 0.9% 2,987 23 0.8%

2031 15,132 122 0.8% 37.7 2,937 13 0.4% 8,090 87 1.1% 2,999 12 0.4%

2032 15,253 120 0.8% 38.0 2,946 9 0.3% 8,190 100 1.2% 2,999 0 0.0%

2033 15,375 123 0.8% 38.2 2,964 18 0.6% 8,280 90 1.1% 3,004 5 0.2%

2034 15,498 123 0.8% 38.4 2,981 17 0.6% 8,370 90 1.1% 3,011 7 0.2%

2035 15,619 121 0.8% 38.6 3,015 33 1.1% 8,439 68 0.8% 3,024 13 0.4%

2036 15,735 115 0.7% 38.8 3,047 32 1.1% 8,504 66 0.8% 3,039 14 0.5%

2037 15,848 113 0.7% 38.9 3,078 31 1.0% 8,567 63 0.7% 3,057 18 0.6%

2038 15,957 109 0.7% 39.0 3,107 29 0.9% 8,625 58 0.7% 3,081 24 0.8%

2039 16,061 104 0.7% 39.2 3,133 26 0.8% 8,694 69 0.8% 3,095 13 0.4%

2040 16,160 99 0.6% 39.3 3,155 23 0.7% 8,758 64 0.7% 3,112 17 0.6%

2041 16,255 95 0.6% 39.4 3,175 20 0.6% 8,820 63 0.7% 3,130 18 0.6%

2042 16,347 92 0.6% 39.5 3,194 18 0.6% 8,865 45 0.5% 3,166 36 1.1%

2043 16,435 88 0.5% 39.6 3,208 15 0.5% 8,899 34 0.4% 3,211 46 1.4%

2044 16,522 86 0.5% 39.8 3,220 12 0.4% 8,937 38 0.4% 3,253 42 1.3%

2045 16,605 84 0.5% 39.9 3,228 8 0.3% 8,979 42 0.5% 3,291 38 1.2%

2046 16,687 82 0.5% 40.1 3,233 4 0.1% 9,020 41 0.5% 3,330 39 1.2%

2047 16,765 79 0.5% 40.3 3,233 0 0.0% 9,067 47 0.5% 3,363 33 1.0%

2048 16,842 77 0.5% 40.5 3,230 (3) -0.1% 9,105 39 0.4% 3,404 41 1.2%

2049 16,918 76 0.5% 40.7 3,224 (6) -0.2% 9,148 42 0.5% 3,443 39 1.1%

2050 16,994 76 0.4% 41.0 3,215 (9) -0.3% 9,199 51 0.6% 3,474 30 0.9%

2051 17,073 79 0.5% 41.2 3,206 (9) -0.3% 9,254 55 0.6% 3,503 30 0.9%

2052 17,155 82 0.5% 41.3 3,197 (9) -0.3% 9,313 59 0.6% 3,530 27 0.8%

2053 17,243 88 0.5% 41.4 3,189 (8) -0.2% 9,383 70 0.8% 3,549 19 0.5%

2054 17,337 94 0.5% 41.5 3,184 (6) -0.2% 9,442 59 0.6% 3,582 33 0.9%

2055 17,435 98 0.6% 41.6 3,181 (3) -0.1% 9,500 58 0.6% 3,617 36 1.0%

2056 17,540 105 0.6% 41.6 3,181 (0) 0.0% 9,551 51 0.5% 3,662 45 1.2%

2057 17,649 109 0.6% 41.7 3,184 3 0.1% 9,565 14 0.1% 3,745 84 2.3%

2058 17,764 115 0.7% 41.8 3,191 7 0.2% 9,562 (2) 0.0% 3,847 101 2.7%

2059 17,884 120 0.7% 41.8 3,202 11 0.3% 9,566 4 0.0% 3,942 96 2.5%

2060 18,006 122 0.7% 41.8 3,215 14 0.4% 9,580 14 0.1% 4,028 86 2.2%

2061 18,129 124 0.7% 41.8 3,232 16 0.5% 9,609 28 0.3% 4,099 71 1.8%

2062 18,254 124 0.7% 41.9 3,250 19 0.6% 9,629 21 0.2% 4,176 78 1.9%

2063 18,376 123 0.7% 41.9 3,271 20 0.6% 9,662 33 0.3% 4,240 64 1.5%

2064 18,499 122 0.7% 42.0 3,292 21 0.7% 9,699 37 0.4% 4,299 59 1.4%

2065 18,617 119 0.6% 42.0 3,314 22 0.7% 9,736 37 0.4% 4,355 56 1.3%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 87

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 92: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

700 500 300 100 100 300 500 700

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Millard: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Millard: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

88 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 93: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Millard Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Millard 194 90 104 -23 812016 Millard 198 114 84 103 1872017 Millard 182 110 72 26 982018 Millard 187 113 74 45 1192019 Millard 191 115 76 59 1352020 Millard 195 117 78 53 1312021 Millard 198 104 94 46 1402022 Millard 201 106 95 41 1362023 Millard 203 108 95 32 1272024 Millard 205 110 95 24 1192025 Millard 207 112 95 12 1072026 Millard 209 114 95 23 1172027 Millard 211 116 95 23 1182028 Millard 213 118 95 28 1232029 Millard 215 120 95 30 1252030 Millard 218 122 95 28 1232031 Millard 220 125 95 27 1222032 Millard 221 127 94 26 1202033 Millard 223 130 93 30 1232034 Millard 223 132 91 32 1232035 Millard 223 134 89 32 1212036 Millard 223 137 86 29 1152037 Millard 222 139 83 30 1132038 Millard 221 142 80 30 1092039 Millard 220 144 76 28 1042040 Millard 218 146 72 26 992041 Millard 217 148 69 26 952042 Millard 216 150 66 26 922043 Millard 215 151 64 24 882044 Millard 214 153 62 25 862045 Millard 214 154 60 24 842046 Millard 214 155 59 23 822047 Millard 215 156 58 20 792048 Millard 215 157 58 18 772049 Millard 216 158 58 18 762050 Millard 217 158 59 17 762051 Millard 218 158 59 20 792052 Millard 219 159 61 21 822053 Millard 221 159 62 26 882054 Millard 222 159 64 30 942055 Millard 224 159 65 33 982056 Millard 226 159 67 38 1052057 Millard 227 159 69 41 1092058 Millard 229 159 70 45 1152059 Millard 231 159 71 48 1202060 Millard 232 160 72 50 1222061 Millard 233 160 73 51 1242062 Millard 234 161 73 51 1242063 Millard 235 162 73 50 1232064 Millard 236 164 72 50 1222065 Millard 236 166 70 49 119

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 89

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 94: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Millard: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Millard: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

90 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 95: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Millard Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 6,846 4,578 2.832016 6,985 139 2.0% 4,657 79 1.7% 2.822017 7,120 135 1.9% 4,715 58 1.3% 2.812018 7,244 125 1.7% 4,792 77 1.6% 2.792019 7,362 117 1.6% 4,850 58 1.2% 2.782020 7,467 105 1.4% 4,923 73 1.5% 2.772021 7,561 94 1.3% 5,011 88 1.8% 2.752022 7,648 88 1.2% 5,082 71 1.4% 2.732023 7,732 84 1.1% 5,157 75 1.5% 2.722024 7,814 81 1.1% 5,225 69 1.3% 2.702025 7,893 79 1.0% 5,300 75 1.4% 2.692026 7,971 78 1.0% 5,370 70 1.3% 2.672027 8,049 77 1.0% 5,449 79 1.5% 2.652028 8,125 76 0.9% 5,522 73 1.3% 2.642029 8,201 76 0.9% 5,581 59 1.1% 2.632030 8,276 75 0.9% 5,649 68 1.2% 2.622031 8,350 75 0.9% 5,712 63 1.1% 2.622032 8,424 74 0.9% 5,772 60 1.0% 2.612033 8,498 74 0.9% 5,831 60 1.0% 2.602034 8,571 73 0.9% 5,892 61 1.0% 2.602035 8,644 73 0.8% 5,956 64 1.1% 2.592036 8,716 72 0.8% 6,013 58 1.0% 2.582037 8,787 71 0.8% 6,053 39 0.7% 2.582038 8,858 71 0.8% 6,093 41 0.7% 2.582039 8,929 71 0.8% 6,131 37 0.6% 2.582040 8,999 70 0.8% 6,180 49 0.8% 2.582041 9,068 70 0.8% 6,219 39 0.6% 2.582042 9,138 69 0.8% 6,252 33 0.5% 2.582043 9,207 69 0.8% 6,293 41 0.7% 2.572044 9,276 69 0.7% 6,329 36 0.6% 2.572045 9,344 68 0.7% 6,371 41 0.7% 2.572046 9,412 68 0.7% 6,417 46 0.7% 2.562047 9,479 67 0.7% 6,458 41 0.6% 2.562048 9,546 67 0.7% 6,508 50 0.8% 2.552049 9,613 67 0.7% 6,550 42 0.6% 2.542050 9,679 66 0.7% 6,601 51 0.8% 2.532051 9,745 66 0.7% 6,634 33 0.5% 2.532052 9,811 66 0.7% 6,682 48 0.7% 2.532053 9,876 65 0.7% 6,723 41 0.6% 2.522054 9,942 65 0.7% 6,762 39 0.6% 2.522055 10,007 65 0.7% 6,815 53 0.8% 2.522056 10,071 65 0.6% 6,866 51 0.7% 2.512057 10,135 64 0.6% 6,930 64 0.9% 2.502058 10,199 64 0.6% 6,974 45 0.6% 2.502059 10,263 64 0.6% 7,029 55 0.8% 2.502060 10,326 63 0.6% 7,093 63 0.9% 2.502061 10,389 63 0.6% 7,155 62 0.9% 2.492062 10,451 62 0.6% 7,226 71 1.0% 2.492063 10,513 62 0.6% 7,295 69 1.0% 2.482064 10,573 61 0.6% 7,369 74 1.0% 2.472065 10,633 60 0.6% 7,428 59 0.8% 2.47

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 91

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 96: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

92 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 97: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Morgan County

Table 1: Morgan Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 11,080 33.1 2,783 6,213 1,244

2016 11,522 442 4.0% 33.3 2,853 70 2.5% 6,521 308 5.0% 1,296 52 4.2%

2017 12,005 483 4.2% 33.4 2,898 45 1.6% 6,856 335 5.1% 1,358 62 4.8%

2018 12,491 486 4.0% 33.5 3,001 102 3.5% 7,160 305 4.4% 1,436 78 5.7%

2019 12,973 482 3.9% 33.5 3,049 49 1.6% 7,460 299 4.2% 1,526 91 6.3%

2020 13,443 470 3.6% 33.6 3,102 53 1.7% 7,743 284 3.8% 1,632 106 6.9%

2021 13,906 464 3.5% 33.7 3,130 28 0.9% 8,023 279 3.6% 1,742 110 6.7%

2022 14,356 450 3.2% 33.8 3,148 18 0.6% 8,309 286 3.6% 1,839 97 5.5%

2023 14,790 434 3.0% 33.9 3,155 7 0.2% 8,586 277 3.3% 1,941 102 5.5%

2024 15,208 418 2.8% 34.1 3,162 7 0.2% 8,844 258 3.0% 2,049 108 5.6%

2025 15,613 405 2.7% 34.4 3,156 (5) -0.2% 9,090 246 2.8% 2,170 121 5.9%

2026 16,023 410 2.6% 34.7 3,159 3 0.1% 9,328 237 2.6% 2,298 128 5.9%

2027 16,428 405 2.5% 35.1 3,184 24 0.8% 9,557 229 2.5% 2,412 113 4.9%

2028 16,833 405 2.5% 35.4 3,210 26 0.8% 9,795 238 2.5% 2,518 106 4.4%

2029 17,226 393 2.3% 35.7 3,259 49 1.5% 10,003 208 2.1% 2,620 102 4.1%

2030 17,612 386 2.2% 36.0 3,340 81 2.5% 10,189 186 1.9% 2,711 90 3.4%

2031 17,985 373 2.1% 36.2 3,388 48 1.4% 10,408 218 2.1% 2,792 81 3.0%

2032 18,347 363 2.0% 36.5 3,464 76 2.2% 10,588 181 1.7% 2,876 84 3.0%

2033 18,699 352 1.9% 36.8 3,531 67 1.9% 10,788 200 1.9% 2,944 68 2.4%

2034 19,034 335 1.8% 37.1 3,611 80 2.3% 10,958 170 1.6% 3,017 73 2.5%

2035 19,349 316 1.7% 37.4 3,690 79 2.2% 11,102 144 1.3% 3,103 85 2.8%

2036 19,644 294 1.5% 37.7 3,763 73 2.0% 11,233 131 1.2% 3,191 88 2.8%

2037 19,913 269 1.4% 38.0 3,826 63 1.7% 11,355 122 1.1% 3,277 87 2.7%

2038 20,156 242 1.2% 38.3 3,879 53 1.4% 11,470 115 1.0% 3,360 82 2.5%

2039 20,372 216 1.1% 38.6 3,920 42 1.1% 11,571 101 0.9% 3,445 85 2.5%

2040 20,564 192 0.9% 38.9 3,950 30 0.8% 11,655 84 0.7% 3,536 92 2.7%

2041 20,744 180 0.9% 39.2 3,973 22 0.6% 11,737 81 0.7% 3,628 92 2.6%

2042 20,913 169 0.8% 39.5 3,987 14 0.4% 11,800 64 0.5% 3,734 107 2.9%

2043 21,070 157 0.8% 39.9 3,993 6 0.2% 11,869 69 0.6% 3,832 98 2.6%

2044 21,217 147 0.7% 40.2 3,992 (2) 0.0% 11,961 92 0.8% 3,904 71 1.9%

2045 21,357 140 0.7% 40.5 3,983 (8) -0.2% 12,072 110 0.9% 3,954 50 1.3%

2046 21,489 132 0.6% 40.9 3,968 (15) -0.4% 12,182 110 0.9% 4,001 47 1.2%

2047 21,614 126 0.6% 41.2 3,948 (21) -0.5% 12,276 94 0.8% 4,061 60 1.5%

2048 21,737 122 0.6% 41.6 3,923 (25) -0.6% 12,362 87 0.7% 4,126 65 1.6%

2049 21,857 120 0.6% 41.9 3,894 (28) -0.7% 12,458 95 0.8% 4,180 54 1.3%

2050 21,978 121 0.6% 42.2 3,864 (30) -0.8% 12,549 91 0.7% 4,237 57 1.4%

2051 22,105 126 0.6% 42.5 3,835 (29) -0.8% 12,643 94 0.8% 4,292 55 1.3%

2052 22,236 132 0.6% 42.8 3,808 (27) -0.7% 12,741 98 0.8% 4,344 52 1.2%

2053 22,376 139 0.6% 43.0 3,784 (24) -0.6% 12,847 106 0.8% 4,391 46 1.1%

2054 22,523 147 0.7% 43.2 3,765 (20) -0.5% 12,955 108 0.8% 4,436 45 1.0%

2055 22,678 156 0.7% 43.3 3,751 (14) -0.4% 13,038 83 0.6% 4,507 71 1.6%

2056 22,843 165 0.7% 43.4 3,743 (8) -0.2% 13,089 51 0.4% 4,613 106 2.4%

2057 23,017 173 0.8% 43.5 3,741 (1) 0.0% 13,121 32 0.2% 4,740 126 2.7%

2058 23,199 182 0.8% 43.5 3,747 6 0.2% 13,143 22 0.2% 4,879 139 2.9%

2059 23,388 189 0.8% 43.5 3,761 13 0.4% 13,172 29 0.2% 5,011 132 2.7%

2060 23,583 195 0.8% 43.5 3,780 20 0.5% 13,220 48 0.4% 5,124 113 2.3%

2061 23,782 199 0.8% 43.5 3,806 25 0.7% 13,259 38 0.3% 5,246 123 2.4%

2062 23,985 203 0.9% 43.5 3,837 31 0.8% 13,282 23 0.2% 5,384 138 2.6%

2063 24,191 206 0.9% 43.5 3,872 35 0.9% 13,317 35 0.3% 5,511 126 2.3%

2064 24,399 208 0.9% 43.6 3,910 39 1.0% 13,352 35 0.3% 5,638 127 2.3%

2065 24,605 207 0.8% 43.6 3,951 40 1.0% 13,397 45 0.3% 5,754 116 2.1%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 93

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 98: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

600 400 200 0 200 400 600

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Morgan: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Morgan: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

94 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 99: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Morgan Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Morgan 176 50 126 178 3042016 Morgan 158 60 98 344 4422017 Morgan 168 69 99 384 4832018 Morgan 179 72 107 379 4862019 Morgan 190 76 114 367 4822020 Morgan 200 79 121 348 4702021 Morgan 211 72 139 324 4642022 Morgan 221 74 147 303 4502023 Morgan 231 77 154 280 4342024 Morgan 240 80 159 258 4182025 Morgan 248 83 165 240 4052026 Morgan 256 86 170 240 4102027 Morgan 263 90 174 231 4052028 Morgan 270 93 177 228 4052029 Morgan 276 96 180 213 3932030 Morgan 281 100 182 205 3862031 Morgan 285 103 182 190 3732032 Morgan 289 107 182 180 3632033 Morgan 291 110 181 171 3522034 Morgan 293 114 179 156 3352035 Morgan 293 118 175 140 3162036 Morgan 293 122 171 123 2942037 Morgan 291 125 166 104 2692038 Morgan 289 129 160 83 2422039 Morgan 287 133 153 63 2162040 Morgan 283 137 146 46 1922041 Morgan 280 141 139 41 1802042 Morgan 277 146 131 38 1692043 Morgan 274 150 125 33 1572044 Morgan 272 154 118 29 1472045 Morgan 271 158 113 27 1402046 Morgan 269 161 108 24 1322047 Morgan 269 165 104 22 1262048 Morgan 270 169 101 22 1222049 Morgan 271 173 98 22 1202050 Morgan 272 176 96 25 1212051 Morgan 274 179 95 31 1262052 Morgan 277 183 95 37 1322053 Morgan 280 185 94 45 1392054 Morgan 283 188 95 52 1472055 Morgan 286 191 95 60 1562056 Morgan 289 193 96 69 1652057 Morgan 292 196 96 77 1732058 Morgan 295 198 97 86 1822059 Morgan 297 200 97 92 1892060 Morgan 299 202 97 98 1952061 Morgan 301 205 96 103 1992062 Morgan 302 207 95 107 2032063 Morgan 303 209 94 112 2062064 Morgan 304 212 92 116 2082065 Morgan 304 215 90 117 207

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 95

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 100: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Morgan: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Morgan: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

96 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 101: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Morgan Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 4,456 3,485 3.182016 4,596 140 3.2% 3,652 167 4.8% 3.162017 4,726 129 2.8% 3,815 163 4.5% 3.152018 4,843 117 2.5% 3,993 178 4.7% 3.132019 4,953 110 2.3% 4,189 196 4.9% 3.102020 5,056 103 2.1% 4,371 182 4.4% 3.082021 5,155 99 2.0% 4,545 174 4.0% 3.062022 5,250 96 1.9% 4,720 175 3.8% 3.042023 5,344 94 1.8% 4,900 180 3.8% 3.022024 5,436 92 1.7% 5,075 175 3.6% 3.002025 5,527 91 1.7% 5,254 179 3.5% 2.972026 5,617 90 1.6% 5,427 173 3.3% 2.952027 5,706 90 1.6% 5,600 173 3.2% 2.932028 5,796 89 1.6% 5,771 171 3.0% 2.922029 5,885 89 1.5% 5,943 172 3.0% 2.902030 5,974 89 1.5% 6,118 175 2.9% 2.882031 6,062 89 1.5% 6,272 153 2.5% 2.872032 6,150 88 1.4% 6,430 159 2.5% 2.852033 6,237 87 1.4% 6,602 172 2.7% 2.832034 6,324 86 1.4% 6,771 169 2.6% 2.812035 6,409 86 1.4% 6,926 155 2.3% 2.792036 6,495 85 1.3% 7,071 145 2.1% 2.782037 6,579 85 1.3% 7,206 135 1.9% 2.762038 6,664 84 1.3% 7,321 115 1.6% 2.752039 6,748 84 1.3% 7,432 111 1.5% 2.742040 6,833 84 1.3% 7,526 93 1.3% 2.732041 6,917 85 1.2% 7,633 108 1.4% 2.722042 7,002 85 1.2% 7,743 110 1.4% 2.702043 7,087 85 1.2% 7,832 89 1.1% 2.692044 7,173 85 1.2% 7,913 81 1.0% 2.682045 7,258 86 1.2% 7,992 79 1.0% 2.672046 7,344 86 1.2% 8,075 83 1.0% 2.662047 7,431 86 1.2% 8,172 97 1.2% 2.642048 7,517 87 1.2% 8,249 77 0.9% 2.642049 7,605 87 1.2% 8,337 88 1.1% 2.622050 7,693 88 1.2% 8,425 88 1.1% 2.612051 7,781 88 1.1% 8,497 72 0.9% 2.602052 7,870 89 1.1% 8,567 71 0.8% 2.602053 7,960 90 1.1% 8,638 70 0.8% 2.592054 8,050 90 1.1% 8,728 90 1.0% 2.582055 8,141 91 1.1% 8,832 103 1.2% 2.572056 8,232 92 1.1% 8,919 87 1.0% 2.562057 8,324 92 1.1% 9,013 94 1.1% 2.552058 8,417 93 1.1% 9,104 91 1.0% 2.552059 8,510 93 1.1% 9,185 81 0.9% 2.552060 8,604 94 1.1% 9,273 89 1.0% 2.542061 8,699 94 1.1% 9,383 109 1.2% 2.532062 8,793 95 1.1% 9,481 98 1.0% 2.532063 8,888 95 1.1% 9,586 105 1.1% 2.522064 8,984 95 1.1% 9,700 114 1.2% 2.522065 9,079 95 1.1% 9,804 104 1.1% 2.51

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 97

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 102: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

98 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 103: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Piute County

Table 1: Piute Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 1,631 40.3 376 821 357

2016 1,604 (27) -1.7% 40.8 371 (5) -1.3% 798 (22) -2.7% 366 9 2.6%

2017 1,613 9 0.6% 40.8 365 (6) -1.5% 796 (3) -0.3% 376 10 2.8%

2018 1,624 12 0.7% 40.7 351 (14) -3.9% 806 10 1.3% 383 6 1.7%

2019 1,636 12 0.7% 40.7 349 (2) -0.5% 816 9 1.2% 384 2 0.5%

2020 1,645 9 0.6% 40.6 341 (8) -2.4% 823 7 0.9% 388 3 0.8%

2021 1,657 12 0.7% 40.7 326 (15) -4.3% 835 13 1.6% 391 4 1.0%

2022 1,669 12 0.7% 40.8 314 (12) -3.8% 845 10 1.2% 401 10 2.6%

2023 1,678 10 0.6% 40.7 309 (4) -1.4% 851 6 0.7% 407 6 1.4%

2024 1,688 10 0.6% 40.5 308 (2) -0.5% 855 4 0.5% 411 4 1.1%

2025 1,699 11 0.6% 40.5 299 (8) -2.7% 865 9 1.1% 419 7 1.8%

2026 1,712 13 0.8% 40.4 295 (4) -1.3% 876 12 1.4% 421 3 0.6%

2027 1,726 14 0.8% 39.8 298 3 1.0% 888 11 1.3% 419 (3) -0.6%

2028 1,743 17 1.0% 39.1 304 5 1.8% 895 7 0.8% 420 1 0.3%

2029 1,762 19 1.1% 38.6 309 6 1.9% 903 8 0.9% 422 2 0.6%

2030 1,781 19 1.1% 38.4 323 14 4.4% 902 (0) 0.0% 425 3 0.7%

2031 1,801 20 1.1% 38.3 338 15 4.6% 908 5 0.6% 423 (3) -0.7%

2032 1,821 20 1.1% 38.3 347 9 2.6% 921 13 1.5% 419 (4) -1.0%

2033 1,841 19 1.1% 38.3 360 13 3.9% 929 8 0.9% 414 (4) -1.1%

2034 1,858 17 0.9% 38.4 375 15 4.3% 936 7 0.7% 409 (5) -1.3%

2035 1,872 14 0.8% 38.6 385 9 2.5% 943 7 0.8% 407 (2) -0.5%

2036 1,884 12 0.7% 38.9 393 8 2.1% 954 11 1.1% 402 (5) -1.2%

2037 1,894 10 0.5% 38.8 400 7 1.7% 964 10 1.0% 398 (3) -0.9%

2038 1,903 9 0.5% 38.8 405 6 1.5% 969 6 0.6% 399 1 0.1%

2039 1,910 7 0.4% 39.0 410 5 1.1% 974 5 0.5% 400 1 0.3%

2040 1,916 6 0.3% 39.2 413 3 0.8% 977 3 0.3% 404 3 0.8%

2041 1,922 5 0.3% 39.4 415 2 0.5% 979 2 0.3% 408 4 1.0%

2042 1,926 5 0.3% 39.6 416 1 0.1% 986 7 0.7% 408 (0) 0.0%

2043 1,930 4 0.2% 39.9 415 (1) -0.2% 993 7 0.7% 407 (1) -0.2%

2044 1,934 4 0.2% 40.3 412 (2) -0.6% 999 6 0.6% 408 1 0.3%

2045 1,938 4 0.2% 40.7 409 (4) -0.9% 1,005 6 0.6% 409 1 0.3%

2046 1,941 3 0.2% 40.9 404 (5) -1.1% 1,008 3 0.3% 414 5 1.1%

2047 1,944 3 0.1% 41.1 399 (5) -1.4% 1,014 6 0.6% 415 1 0.3%

2048 1,947 3 0.2% 41.4 393 (6) -1.5% 1,024 11 1.0% 412 (3) -0.7%

2049 1,950 3 0.2% 41.8 387 (6) -1.6% 1,031 7 0.6% 413 1 0.3%

2050 1,954 4 0.2% 42.1 381 (6) -1.5% 1,035 4 0.4% 417 4 0.9%

2051 1,959 5 0.3% 42.2 376 (5) -1.3% 1,042 6 0.6% 419 2 0.5%

2052 1,966 6 0.3% 42.2 372 (4) -1.1% 1,054 12 1.1% 415 (4) -0.9%

2053 1,974 8 0.4% 42.2 369 (3) -0.7% 1,067 13 1.3% 410 (5) -1.1%

2054 1,984 10 0.5% 41.7 368 (1) -0.3% 1,078 11 1.0% 408 (2) -0.5%

2055 1,995 11 0.6% 41.3 368 0 0.1% 1,088 10 0.9% 407 (1) -0.3%

2056 2,008 13 0.6% 41.0 370 2 0.5% 1,096 8 0.7% 408 1 0.3%

2057 2,022 14 0.7% 40.5 373 3 0.8% 1,099 3 0.3% 414 6 1.4%

2058 2,037 15 0.7% 40.4 377 4 1.1% 1,100 1 0.1% 422 8 1.9%

2059 2,052 16 0.8% 40.4 382 5 1.3% 1,101 1 0.0% 431 9 2.1%

2060 2,069 16 0.8% 40.3 388 6 1.5% 1,102 1 0.1% 439 9 2.0%

2061 2,085 16 0.8% 40.3 394 6 1.6% 1,099 (2) -0.2% 452 12 2.8%

2062 2,102 17 0.8% 40.3 400 6 1.6% 1,093 (6) -0.6% 468 16 3.6%

2063 2,118 16 0.8% 40.4 406 6 1.5% 1,098 4 0.4% 474 6 1.2%

2064 2,134 16 0.7% 40.5 412 6 1.4% 1,105 8 0.7% 477 3 0.6%

2065 2,149 15 0.7% 40.5 417 5 1.3% 1,105 (0) 0.0% 487 11 2.3%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 99

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 104: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Piute: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

120 90 60 30 0 30 60 90 120

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Piute: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

100 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 105: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Piute Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Piute 13 11 2 36 382016 Piute 12 19 -7 -20 -272017 Piute 19 18 1 8 92018 Piute 19 18 1 10 122019 Piute 20 19 2 10 122020 Piute 21 19 2 7 92021 Piute 21 17 5 7 122022 Piute 22 17 5 7 122023 Piute 22 17 5 5 102024 Piute 23 18 5 4 102025 Piute 23 18 5 5 112026 Piute 24 18 6 8 132027 Piute 25 19 6 8 142028 Piute 25 19 6 10 172029 Piute 26 19 6 13 192030 Piute 26 19 7 12 192031 Piute 26 20 7 13 202032 Piute 27 20 7 14 202033 Piute 27 20 7 13 192034 Piute 26 20 6 11 172035 Piute 26 20 5 9 142036 Piute 25 21 5 8 122037 Piute 24 21 4 7 102038 Piute 24 21 3 6 92039 Piute 23 21 2 5 72040 Piute 23 21 2 4 62041 Piute 22 21 2 4 52042 Piute 22 21 1 3 52043 Piute 22 21 2 2 42044 Piute 22 21 2 2 42045 Piute 23 20 2 1 42046 Piute 23 20 3 1 32047 Piute 23 20 3 0 32048 Piute 24 20 4 -1 32049 Piute 24 20 4 -1 32050 Piute 24 20 5 -1 42051 Piute 25 20 5 0 52052 Piute 25 20 6 1 62053 Piute 26 19 6 2 82054 Piute 26 19 7 3 102055 Piute 26 19 7 4 112056 Piute 27 19 8 5 132057 Piute 27 19 8 6 142058 Piute 27 19 8 7 152059 Piute 27 19 8 7 162060 Piute 27 19 8 8 162061 Piute 27 19 8 8 162062 Piute 27 19 8 9 172063 Piute 27 19 8 8 162064 Piute 27 19 7 8 162065 Piute 26 19 7 8 15

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 101

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 106: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Piute: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Piute: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

102 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 107: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Piute Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 633 696 2.292016 642 9 1.5% 692 (4) -0.6% 2.262017 652 9 1.4% 687 (5) -0.8% 2.292018 660 9 1.3% 698 11 1.6% 2.272019 669 9 1.3% 705 8 1.1% 2.262020 677 8 1.2% 706 1 0.1% 2.272021 685 8 1.1% 724 18 2.6% 2.232022 692 7 1.1% 729 4 0.6% 2.242023 699 7 1.0% 748 19 2.7% 2.192024 706 7 1.0% 754 6 0.8% 2.192025 713 7 1.0% 762 7 1.0% 2.182026 720 7 1.0% 768 6 0.8% 2.182027 727 7 0.9% 775 7 0.9% 2.182028 733 7 0.9% 790 15 1.9% 2.162029 740 7 0.9% 801 11 1.4% 2.162030 747 7 0.9% 806 5 0.6% 2.172031 754 7 0.9% 790 (16) -2.0% 2.242032 761 7 0.9% 790 1 0.1% 2.262033 767 7 0.9% 818 28 3.6% 2.202034 774 7 0.9% 825 6 0.8% 2.212035 781 7 0.9% 839 15 1.8% 2.182036 788 7 0.9% 841 2 0.2% 2.192037 794 7 0.8% 842 1 0.1% 2.202038 801 7 0.8% 843 0 0.1% 2.212039 807 7 0.8% 831 (12) -1.4% 2.252040 814 7 0.8% 834 3 0.4% 2.252041 821 7 0.8% 841 7 0.9% 2.242042 827 7 0.8% 847 5 0.6% 2.232043 834 7 0.8% 853 7 0.8% 2.212044 840 7 0.8% 844 (9) -1.1% 2.242045 847 7 0.8% 854 10 1.2% 2.222046 853 6 0.8% 849 (4) -0.5% 2.242047 860 6 0.8% 838 (11) -1.3% 2.272048 866 6 0.8% 853 15 1.7% 2.232049 873 6 0.7% 864 11 1.3% 2.212050 879 6 0.7% 866 2 0.2% 2.212051 885 6 0.7% 859 (8) -0.9% 2.232052 892 6 0.7% 853 (6) -0.7% 2.262053 898 6 0.7% 852 (1) -0.1% 2.272054 905 6 0.7% 850 (2) -0.3% 2.292055 911 6 0.7% 864 14 1.6% 2.262056 918 6 0.7% 868 4 0.5% 2.272057 924 6 0.7% 873 5 0.6% 2.272058 930 6 0.7% 892 19 2.1% 2.242059 937 6 0.7% 909 17 1.9% 2.212060 943 6 0.7% 919 10 1.1% 2.212061 950 6 0.7% 926 7 0.8% 2.212062 956 6 0.7% 931 4 0.5% 2.212063 962 6 0.7% 931 (0) 0.0% 2.232064 969 6 0.7% 942 11 1.2% 2.222065 975 6 0.7% 954 12 1.3% 2.21

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 103

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 108: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

104 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 109: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Rich County

Table 1: Rich Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 2,353 35.6 550 1,249 378

2016 2,355 2 0.1% 36.3 549 (1) -0.3% 1,236 (14) -1.1% 405 27 7.1%

2017 2,381 26 1.1% 36.4 564 15 2.7% 1,233 (3) -0.2% 429 24 5.9%

2018 2,409 28 1.2% 36.6 563 (1) -0.1% 1,244 11 0.9% 440 11 2.5%

2019 2,433 24 1.0% 36.8 571 8 1.5% 1,245 1 0.1% 453 14 3.1%

2020 2,452 19 0.8% 37.0 572 0 0.0% 1,248 4 0.3% 465 12 2.7%

2021 2,472 20 0.8% 37.3 561 (11) -1.9% 1,258 9 0.8% 483 18 3.9%

2022 2,488 16 0.6% 37.6 546 (14) -2.6% 1,268 10 0.8% 501 18 3.8%

2023 2,503 15 0.6% 37.8 540 (7) -1.2% 1,281 13 1.0% 508 7 1.3%

2024 2,518 15 0.6% 38.0 523 (17) -3.1% 1,306 25 2.0% 513 5 1.0%

2025 2,535 16 0.6% 38.0 512 (11) -2.0% 1,324 18 1.4% 519 6 1.1%

2026 2,553 18 0.7% 38.1 509 (3) -0.7% 1,337 13 1.0% 524 5 1.0%

2027 2,572 19 0.7% 38.2 505 (4) -0.8% 1,355 17 1.3% 526 2 0.4%

2028 2,590 19 0.7% 38.2 496 (9) -1.7% 1,369 14 1.0% 535 9 1.7%

2029 2,613 23 0.9% 38.1 495 (2) -0.3% 1,384 16 1.2% 539 4 0.7%

2030 2,638 24 0.9% 38.1 489 (6) -1.2% 1,408 23 1.7% 541 2 0.4%

2031 2,663 26 1.0% 38.1 499 10 2.1% 1,418 11 0.8% 541 0 0.0%

2032 2,691 27 1.0% 38.1 506 7 1.4% 1,433 14 1.0% 543 2 0.3%

2033 2,719 28 1.0% 37.9 516 10 2.0% 1,446 13 0.9% 545 1 0.3%

2034 2,746 27 1.0% 37.9 527 10 2.0% 1,464 19 1.3% 540 (5) -0.9%

2035 2,773 27 1.0% 38.0 536 9 1.8% 1,483 19 1.3% 536 (4) -0.7%

2036 2,798 25 0.9% 37.9 546 10 1.8% 1,502 19 1.3% 531 (5) -0.9%

2037 2,823 25 0.9% 37.8 556 10 1.8% 1,517 15 1.0% 530 (1) -0.1%

2038 2,847 24 0.9% 37.7 566 10 1.8% 1,526 9 0.6% 535 5 1.0%

2039 2,870 23 0.8% 37.5 576 10 1.8% 1,532 6 0.4% 543 8 1.5%

2040 2,892 22 0.8% 37.6 586 10 1.7% 1,539 7 0.5% 550 6 1.2%

2041 2,914 22 0.7% 37.8 595 9 1.6% 1,550 10 0.7% 554 4 0.7%

2042 2,935 21 0.7% 38.1 603 8 1.4% 1,560 10 0.6% 559 5 0.9%

2043 2,955 20 0.7% 38.3 610 7 1.1% 1,565 5 0.3% 568 10 1.8%

2044 2,974 19 0.7% 38.6 615 5 0.9% 1,570 5 0.3% 579 10 1.8%

2045 2,992 18 0.6% 39.0 619 4 0.6% 1,574 4 0.2% 591 12 2.1%

2046 3,010 17 0.6% 39.2 621 2 0.4% 1,584 10 0.7% 597 6 1.0%

2047 3,026 17 0.5% 39.4 622 1 0.1% 1,588 4 0.3% 609 13 2.1%

2048 3,042 16 0.5% 39.6 621 (1) -0.1% 1,596 8 0.5% 618 9 1.5%

2049 3,058 16 0.5% 39.8 619 (2) -0.3% 1,601 5 0.3% 630 12 1.9%

2050 3,073 15 0.5% 40.1 616 (3) -0.5% 1,612 11 0.7% 637 7 1.1%

2051 3,088 15 0.5% 40.3 613 (3) -0.5% 1,623 11 0.7% 644 7 1.0%

2052 3,104 16 0.5% 40.5 609 (4) -0.6% 1,637 14 0.8% 648 4 0.6%

2053 3,121 17 0.5% 40.6 606 (4) -0.6% 1,649 12 0.7% 654 6 1.0%

2054 3,139 18 0.6% 40.6 602 (3) -0.5% 1,660 12 0.7% 660 6 1.0%

2055 3,158 19 0.6% 40.5 600 (2) -0.4% 1,674 14 0.9% 664 4 0.6%

2056 3,177 20 0.6% 40.5 599 (1) -0.2% 1,689 14 0.9% 668 4 0.6%

2057 3,197 20 0.6% 40.4 598 (1) -0.1% 1,701 12 0.7% 674 6 0.9%

2058 3,218 21 0.7% 40.4 599 1 0.1% 1,711 10 0.6% 682 7 1.1%

2059 3,240 22 0.7% 40.4 601 2 0.3% 1,719 9 0.5% 690 9 1.3%

2060 3,263 22 0.7% 40.3 604 3 0.5% 1,731 11 0.7% 696 6 0.8%

2061 3,286 23 0.7% 40.3 608 4 0.7% 1,740 9 0.5% 703 7 1.1%

2062 3,309 23 0.7% 40.2 613 5 0.8% 1,745 5 0.3% 715 11 1.6%

2063 3,333 24 0.7% 40.2 618 6 0.9% 1,755 10 0.6% 721 6 0.9%

2064 3,356 24 0.7% 40.2 625 6 1.0% 1,765 10 0.6% 727 6 0.8%

2065 3,380 24 0.7% 40.2 632 7 1.1% 1,774 10 0.5% 733 7 0.9%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 105

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 110: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Rich: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Rich: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

106 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 111: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Rich Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Rich 30 20 10 20 302016 Rich 31 9 22 -20 22017 Rich 32 21 11 15 262018 Rich 32 21 11 17 282019 Rich 33 22 11 13 242020 Rich 33 22 11 8 192021 Rich 34 20 14 6 202022 Rich 34 20 14 2 162023 Rich 35 21 14 1 152024 Rich 35 21 14 1 152025 Rich 36 21 15 2 162026 Rich 37 22 15 3 182027 Rich 38 22 16 3 192028 Rich 39 23 16 3 192029 Rich 40 23 17 6 232030 Rich 41 24 17 7 242031 Rich 41 24 17 8 262032 Rich 42 24 18 10 272033 Rich 42 25 18 11 282034 Rich 43 25 17 10 272035 Rich 43 26 17 9 272036 Rich 43 26 17 9 252037 Rich 43 26 16 9 252038 Rich 42 27 16 9 242039 Rich 42 27 15 8 232040 Rich 41 27 14 8 222041 Rich 41 27 14 8 222042 Rich 41 28 13 8 212043 Rich 40 28 13 7 202044 Rich 40 28 12 7 192045 Rich 40 28 12 6 182046 Rich 40 28 12 5 172047 Rich 40 28 12 4 172048 Rich 40 28 12 3 162049 Rich 41 28 13 3 162050 Rich 41 28 13 2 152051 Rich 41 28 14 2 152052 Rich 42 28 14 2 162053 Rich 43 28 15 2 172054 Rich 43 28 15 2 182055 Rich 44 28 16 3 192056 Rich 44 28 17 3 202057 Rich 45 28 17 3 202058 Rich 45 28 18 3 212059 Rich 46 28 18 4 222060 Rich 46 28 18 4 222061 Rich 47 28 18 5 232062 Rich 47 29 18 5 232063 Rich 47 29 18 6 242064 Rich 47 29 18 6 242065 Rich 47 30 17 7 24

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 107

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 112: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

Rich: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Rich: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

108 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 113: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Rich Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 1,445 888 2.652016 1,479 34 2.3% 901 13 1.5% 2.612017 1,509 31 2.1% 907 6 0.7% 2.622018 1,537 28 1.9% 926 19 2.1% 2.602019 1,563 26 1.7% 932 6 0.7% 2.612020 1,587 24 1.5% 947 14 1.5% 2.592021 1,608 22 1.4% 966 19 2.0% 2.562022 1,629 20 1.3% 972 6 0.6% 2.562023 1,648 20 1.2% 989 17 1.7% 2.532024 1,667 19 1.2% 994 5 0.5% 2.532025 1,686 19 1.1% 1,009 15 1.5% 2.512026 1,705 19 1.1% 1,012 3 0.3% 2.522027 1,724 19 1.1% 1,030 18 1.7% 2.502028 1,743 19 1.1% 1,038 8 0.8% 2.492029 1,763 19 1.1% 1,041 3 0.3% 2.512030 1,782 20 1.1% 1,057 16 1.5% 2.492031 1,802 20 1.1% 1,056 (1) -0.1% 2.522032 1,821 19 1.1% 1,073 17 1.6% 2.512033 1,841 19 1.1% 1,089 16 1.5% 2.502034 1,860 19 1.0% 1,092 3 0.3% 2.512035 1,878 19 1.0% 1,105 13 1.2% 2.512036 1,897 18 1.0% 1,104 (1) -0.1% 2.532037 1,915 18 1.0% 1,122 17 1.6% 2.522038 1,932 18 0.9% 1,126 4 0.3% 2.532039 1,950 18 0.9% 1,137 11 1.0% 2.522040 1,968 18 0.9% 1,138 2 0.1% 2.542041 1,985 17 0.9% 1,148 9 0.8% 2.542042 2,002 17 0.9% 1,160 12 1.1% 2.532043 2,019 17 0.9% 1,181 21 1.8% 2.502044 2,037 17 0.8% 1,190 9 0.8% 2.502045 2,054 17 0.8% 1,204 14 1.2% 2.482046 2,071 17 0.8% 1,209 5 0.4% 2.492047 2,088 17 0.8% 1,215 6 0.5% 2.492048 2,104 17 0.8% 1,226 11 0.9% 2.482049 2,121 17 0.8% 1,233 6 0.5% 2.482050 2,138 17 0.8% 1,238 5 0.4% 2.482051 2,154 17 0.8% 1,253 15 1.2% 2.462052 2,171 16 0.8% 1,256 3 0.2% 2.472053 2,187 16 0.8% 1,267 11 0.9% 2.462054 2,203 16 0.7% 1,276 10 0.8% 2.462055 2,219 16 0.7% 1,287 11 0.8% 2.452056 2,235 16 0.7% 1,296 9 0.7% 2.452057 2,251 16 0.7% 1,296 0 0.0% 2.472058 2,267 16 0.7% 1,310 14 1.1% 2.452059 2,283 16 0.7% 1,315 4 0.3% 2.462060 2,298 16 0.7% 1,323 8 0.6% 2.472061 2,314 15 0.7% 1,332 10 0.7% 2.472062 2,329 15 0.7% 1,341 8 0.6% 2.472063 2,344 15 0.7% 1,354 14 1.0% 2.462064 2,359 15 0.6% 1,362 8 0.6% 2.462065 2,374 15 0.6% 1,379 17 1.2% 2.45

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 109

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 114: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

110 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 115: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Salt Lake County

Table 1: Salt Lake Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 1,094,650 32.5 223,083 675,440 108,617

2016 1,108,872 14,223 1.3% 32.8 225,074 1,991 0.9% 683,472 8,033 1.2% 113,143 4,526 4.2%

2017 1,127,117 18,245 1.6% 33.1 227,243 2,169 1.0% 693,778 10,305 1.5% 118,005 4,862 4.3%

2018 1,145,846 18,729 1.7% 33.4 229,628 2,385 1.0% 704,228 10,451 1.5% 123,326 5,321 4.5%

2019 1,164,057 18,211 1.6% 33.7 231,525 1,897 0.8% 714,224 9,996 1.4% 128,764 5,438 4.4%

2020 1,181,471 17,414 1.5% 34.0 233,118 1,593 0.7% 723,469 9,245 1.3% 134,413 5,649 4.4%

2021 1,198,374 16,903 1.4% 34.3 233,999 882 0.4% 732,452 8,983 1.2% 140,633 6,221 4.6%

2022 1,213,427 15,054 1.3% 34.7 235,117 1,118 0.5% 740,372 7,920 1.1% 146,726 6,093 4.3%

2023 1,226,789 13,362 1.1% 35.0 235,769 652 0.3% 747,311 6,939 0.9% 152,820 6,094 4.2%

2024 1,238,863 12,073 1.0% 35.4 235,879 110 0.0% 753,705 6,394 0.9% 158,839 6,018 3.9%

2025 1,249,961 11,099 0.9% 35.7 235,407 (472) -0.2% 759,596 5,891 0.8% 165,019 6,180 3.9%

2026 1,261,801 11,839 0.9% 36.1 235,020 (387) -0.2% 766,441 6,845 0.9% 170,762 5,744 3.5%

2027 1,273,255 11,455 0.9% 36.4 234,641 (379) -0.2% 773,147 6,706 0.9% 176,199 5,437 3.2%

2028 1,284,476 11,221 0.9% 36.7 234,193 (449) -0.2% 779,813 6,666 0.9% 181,417 5,218 3.0%

2029 1,295,472 10,996 0.9% 36.9 233,962 (230) -0.1% 786,581 6,769 0.9% 185,977 4,560 2.5%

2030 1,306,414 10,942 0.8% 37.1 233,974 12 0.0% 793,383 6,802 0.9% 190,082 4,105 2.2%

2031 1,317,382 10,968 0.8% 37.3 233,452 (522) -0.2% 801,116 7,733 1.0% 193,684 3,602 1.9%

2032 1,328,445 11,063 0.8% 37.4 233,299 (153) -0.1% 808,568 7,453 0.9% 197,164 3,480 1.8%

2033 1,339,451 11,006 0.8% 37.5 233,314 16 0.0% 815,658 7,090 0.9% 200,692 3,529 1.8%

2034 1,350,343 10,892 0.8% 37.7 233,444 130 0.1% 822,128 6,470 0.8% 204,542 3,849 1.9%

2035 1,361,099 10,756 0.8% 37.9 232,950 (494) -0.2% 828,371 6,243 0.8% 209,044 4,502 2.2%

2036 1,371,781 10,681 0.8% 38.0 232,538 (412) -0.2% 834,704 6,333 0.8% 213,261 4,217 2.0%

2037 1,382,461 10,680 0.8% 38.1 232,260 (278) -0.1% 841,245 6,542 0.8% 217,126 3,865 1.8%

2038 1,393,158 10,698 0.8% 38.3 232,172 (88) 0.0% 847,739 6,494 0.8% 220,879 3,753 1.7%

2039 1,403,942 10,784 0.8% 38.5 232,323 150 0.1% 854,040 6,301 0.7% 224,691 3,813 1.7%

2040 1,414,842 10,900 0.8% 38.6 232,733 410 0.2% 859,674 5,634 0.7% 229,065 4,374 1.9%

2041 1,425,834 10,992 0.8% 38.7 233,400 667 0.3% 864,827 5,152 0.6% 233,803 4,738 2.1%

2042 1,436,872 11,039 0.8% 38.9 234,295 895 0.4% 869,090 4,263 0.5% 239,303 5,499 2.4%

2043 1,447,718 10,846 0.8% 39.0 235,342 1,048 0.4% 872,563 3,474 0.4% 245,319 6,017 2.5%

2044 1,458,983 11,265 0.8% 39.2 236,643 1,300 0.6% 876,043 3,480 0.4% 251,515 6,195 2.5%

2045 1,470,574 11,591 0.8% 39.3 238,140 1,497 0.6% 878,761 2,718 0.3% 258,618 7,104 2.8%

2046 1,482,418 11,843 0.8% 39.5 239,772 1,632 0.7% 881,702 2,941 0.3% 265,632 7,014 2.7%

2047 1,494,447 12,029 0.8% 39.7 241,484 1,712 0.7% 884,705 3,002 0.3% 272,710 7,078 2.7%

2048 1,506,634 12,187 0.8% 39.8 243,237 1,753 0.7% 887,866 3,161 0.4% 279,761 7,051 2.6%

2049 1,518,930 12,296 0.8% 40.0 244,983 1,746 0.7% 891,305 3,439 0.4% 286,660 6,900 2.5%

2050 1,531,282 12,353 0.8% 40.1 246,685 1,702 0.7% 894,300 2,996 0.3% 294,112 7,452 2.6%

2051 1,544,689 13,406 0.9% 40.2 248,529 1,844 0.7% 897,773 3,473 0.4% 301,911 7,799 2.7%

2052 1,557,799 13,111 0.8% 40.3 250,204 1,674 0.7% 901,385 3,611 0.4% 309,465 7,554 2.5%

2053 1,570,554 12,755 0.8% 40.4 251,681 1,478 0.6% 904,934 3,549 0.4% 316,940 7,475 2.4%

2054 1,582,898 12,344 0.8% 40.6 252,950 1,269 0.5% 908,235 3,301 0.4% 324,476 7,535 2.4%

2055 1,594,804 11,905 0.8% 40.7 254,012 1,061 0.4% 911,071 2,837 0.3% 332,254 7,779 2.4%

2056 1,606,289 11,485 0.7% 40.8 254,875 863 0.3% 914,135 3,064 0.3% 339,584 7,329 2.2%

2057 1,617,353 11,064 0.7% 40.9 255,555 680 0.3% 918,726 4,590 0.5% 345,147 5,563 1.6%

2058 1,628,027 10,673 0.7% 41.0 256,078 523 0.2% 924,705 5,979 0.7% 349,077 3,930 1.1%

2059 1,638,332 10,305 0.6% 41.1 256,471 394 0.2% 931,230 6,525 0.7% 352,206 3,129 0.9%

2060 1,648,280 9,949 0.6% 41.2 256,757 286 0.1% 937,770 6,540 0.7% 355,050 2,845 0.8%

2061 1,657,931 9,650 0.6% 41.4 256,967 210 0.1% 943,322 5,552 0.6% 358,633 3,583 1.0%

2062 1,667,259 9,328 0.6% 41.5 257,120 154 0.1% 947,951 4,629 0.5% 362,847 4,215 1.2%

2063 1,676,288 9,030 0.5% 41.6 257,241 121 0.0% 953,034 5,082 0.5% 366,317 3,470 1.0%

2064 1,685,032 8,744 0.5% 41.7 257,354 113 0.0% 957,887 4,853 0.5% 369,713 3,396 0.9%

2065 1,693,513 8,480 0.5% 41.7 257,484 130 0.1% 961,970 4,083 0.4% 373,580 3,866 1.0%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 111

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 116: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Salt Lake: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Salt Lake: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

112 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 117: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Salt Lake Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Salt Lake 17,565 6,664 10,901 2,875 13,7762016 Salt Lake 17,529 6,535 10,994 3,229 14,2232017 Salt Lake 18,199 6,246 11,953 6,292 18,2452018 Salt Lake 18,281 6,423 11,857 6,871 18,7292019 Salt Lake 18,343 6,603 11,740 6,471 18,2112020 Salt Lake 18,368 6,786 11,581 5,833 17,4142021 Salt Lake 18,365 6,068 12,297 4,606 16,9032022 Salt Lake 18,338 6,218 12,120 2,934 15,0542023 Salt Lake 18,280 6,372 11,908 1,454 13,3622024 Salt Lake 18,211 6,530 11,680 393 12,0732025 Salt Lake 18,139 6,695 11,444 -345 11,0992026 Salt Lake 18,082 6,866 11,216 623 11,8392027 Salt Lake 18,063 7,047 11,016 439 11,4552028 Salt Lake 18,067 7,235 10,832 389 11,2212029 Salt Lake 18,099 7,431 10,668 328 10,9962030 Salt Lake 18,149 7,634 10,515 426 10,9422031 Salt Lake 18,221 7,845 10,377 592 10,9682032 Salt Lake 18,310 8,061 10,249 814 11,0632033 Salt Lake 18,419 8,283 10,136 870 11,0062034 Salt Lake 18,531 8,509 10,022 870 10,8922035 Salt Lake 18,649 8,739 9,910 847 10,7562036 Salt Lake 18,759 8,971 9,788 893 10,6812037 Salt Lake 18,861 9,204 9,656 1,024 10,6802038 Salt Lake 18,952 9,436 9,516 1,182 10,6982039 Salt Lake 19,032 9,667 9,366 1,418 10,7842040 Salt Lake 19,097 9,894 9,203 1,697 10,9002041 Salt Lake 19,148 10,118 9,030 1,962 10,9922042 Salt Lake 19,190 10,336 8,855 2,184 11,0392043 Salt Lake 19,227 10,548 8,679 2,167 10,8462044 Salt Lake 19,248 10,753 8,495 2,770 11,2652045 Salt Lake 19,272 10,949 8,322 3,269 11,5912046 Salt Lake 19,294 11,138 8,156 3,687 11,8432047 Salt Lake 19,317 11,319 7,998 4,031 12,0292048 Salt Lake 19,343 11,495 7,847 4,340 12,1872049 Salt Lake 19,370 11,663 7,707 4,589 12,2962050 Salt Lake 19,402 11,822 7,580 4,772 12,3532051 Salt Lake 19,436 11,976 7,460 5,946 13,4062052 Salt Lake 19,497 12,127 7,370 5,740 13,1112053 Salt Lake 19,558 12,275 7,283 5,472 12,7552054 Salt Lake 19,620 12,423 7,197 5,147 12,3442055 Salt Lake 19,683 12,572 7,112 4,794 11,9052056 Salt Lake 19,749 12,723 7,026 4,459 11,4852057 Salt Lake 19,818 12,878 6,940 4,124 11,0642058 Salt Lake 19,890 13,039 6,851 3,822 10,6732059 Salt Lake 19,966 13,209 6,757 3,548 10,3052060 Salt Lake 20,048 13,390 6,658 3,291 9,9492061 Salt Lake 20,134 13,582 6,551 3,099 9,6502062 Salt Lake 20,225 13,786 6,439 2,889 9,3282063 Salt Lake 20,319 14,002 6,317 2,713 9,0302064 Salt Lake 20,415 14,231 6,184 2,560 8,7442065 Salt Lake 20,511 14,471 6,040 2,440 8,480

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 113

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 118: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Salt Lake: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Salt Lake: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

114 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 119: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Salt Lake Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 844,316 379,320 2.852016 872,399 28,083 3.3% 386,476 7,156 1.9% 2.832017 899,836 27,436 3.1% 394,665 8,189 2.1% 2.822018 925,279 25,444 2.8% 403,170 8,504 2.2% 2.802019 948,858 23,579 2.5% 411,503 8,333 2.1% 2.792020 970,805 21,946 2.3% 419,499 7,997 1.9% 2.782021 990,630 19,825 2.0% 427,608 8,109 1.9% 2.772022 1,008,284 17,654 1.8% 435,121 7,513 1.8% 2.752023 1,024,206 15,922 1.6% 442,118 6,997 1.6% 2.742024 1,039,079 14,874 1.5% 448,707 6,589 1.5% 2.722025 1,053,362 14,283 1.4% 454,929 6,222 1.4% 2.712026 1,067,301 13,939 1.3% 461,446 6,517 1.4% 2.702027 1,080,914 13,612 1.3% 467,895 6,450 1.4% 2.682028 1,094,183 13,269 1.2% 474,395 6,500 1.4% 2.672029 1,107,204 13,021 1.2% 480,890 6,495 1.4% 2.662030 1,120,045 12,841 1.2% 487,466 6,576 1.4% 2.642031 1,132,747 12,702 1.1% 494,252 6,787 1.4% 2.632032 1,145,322 12,575 1.1% 501,125 6,873 1.4% 2.612033 1,157,749 12,427 1.1% 508,051 6,925 1.4% 2.602034 1,170,006 12,257 1.1% 514,879 6,828 1.3% 2.592035 1,182,092 12,086 1.0% 521,352 6,474 1.3% 2.572036 1,194,006 11,914 1.0% 527,645 6,292 1.2% 2.562037 1,205,745 11,740 1.0% 533,835 6,190 1.2% 2.552038 1,217,310 11,565 1.0% 540,021 6,186 1.2% 2.542039 1,228,698 11,388 0.9% 546,102 6,082 1.1% 2.532040 1,239,908 11,210 0.9% 552,022 5,920 1.1% 2.532041 1,250,938 11,030 0.9% 557,883 5,861 1.1% 2.522042 1,261,787 10,849 0.9% 563,495 5,612 1.0% 2.512043 1,272,452 10,665 0.8% 568,839 5,344 0.9% 2.512044 1,282,932 10,480 0.8% 574,216 5,377 0.9% 2.502045 1,293,225 10,293 0.8% 579,472 5,255 0.9% 2.502046 1,303,328 10,103 0.8% 584,731 5,259 0.9% 2.502047 1,313,238 9,911 0.8% 589,942 5,211 0.9% 2.502048 1,322,954 9,716 0.7% 595,213 5,271 0.9% 2.492049 1,332,472 9,518 0.7% 600,615 5,403 0.9% 2.492050 1,341,790 9,317 0.7% 606,036 5,421 0.9% 2.492051 1,350,903 9,113 0.7% 611,814 5,778 1.0% 2.492052 1,359,809 8,906 0.7% 617,548 5,734 0.9% 2.482053 1,368,503 8,694 0.6% 623,366 5,818 0.9% 2.482054 1,376,982 8,479 0.6% 629,293 5,928 1.0% 2.482055 1,385,240 8,259 0.6% 635,143 5,850 0.9% 2.472056 1,393,274 8,034 0.6% 640,730 5,587 0.9% 2.472057 1,401,079 7,805 0.6% 646,149 5,419 0.8% 2.462058 1,408,649 7,570 0.5% 651,580 5,431 0.8% 2.462059 1,415,979 7,330 0.5% 657,038 5,457 0.8% 2.452060 1,423,063 7,084 0.5% 662,656 5,619 0.9% 2.452061 1,429,895 6,832 0.5% 668,313 5,657 0.9% 2.442062 1,436,468 6,573 0.5% 673,715 5,402 0.8% 2.442063 1,442,776 6,308 0.4% 679,044 5,329 0.8% 2.432064 1,448,811 6,035 0.4% 684,355 5,311 0.8% 2.422065 1,454,567 5,756 0.4% 689,490 5,135 0.8% 2.42

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 115

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 120: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

116 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 121: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

San Juan County

Table 1: San Juan Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 15,902 31.1 3,793 9,030 1,831

2016 16,302 400 2.5% 31.5 3,841 48 1.3% 9,318 288 3.2% 1,908 77 4.2%

2017 16,487 185 1.1% 31.9 3,850 10 0.3% 9,439 121 1.3% 2,000 91 4.8%

2018 16,714 227 1.4% 32.3 3,897 47 1.2% 9,592 153 1.6% 2,094 94 4.7%

2019 16,928 214 1.3% 32.7 3,934 36 0.9% 9,731 139 1.4% 2,168 75 3.6%

2020 17,116 187 1.1% 33.1 3,934 (0) 0.0% 9,847 116 1.2% 2,252 83 3.8%

2021 17,305 189 1.1% 33.6 3,882 (52) -1.3% 9,956 109 1.1% 2,369 117 5.2%

2022 17,487 183 1.1% 34.1 3,824 (58) -1.5% 10,078 122 1.2% 2,482 113 4.8%

2023 17,652 165 0.9% 34.7 3,764 (60) -1.6% 10,208 131 1.3% 2,575 93 3.7%

2024 17,800 147 0.8% 35.2 3,715 (49) -1.3% 10,309 100 1.0% 2,673 98 3.8%

2025 17,932 132 0.7% 35.8 3,628 (86) -2.3% 10,430 122 1.2% 2,773 100 3.7%

2026 18,075 144 0.8% 36.3 3,542 (87) -2.4% 10,557 127 1.2% 2,877 104 3.8%

2027 18,220 145 0.8% 36.9 3,463 (79) -2.2% 10,680 123 1.2% 2,979 102 3.5%

2028 18,363 142 0.8% 37.5 3,397 (66) -1.9% 10,807 127 1.2% 3,060 81 2.7%

2029 18,493 131 0.7% 38.0 3,366 (31) -0.9% 10,877 70 0.6% 3,154 93 3.1%

2030 18,620 127 0.7% 38.5 3,320 (46) -1.4% 10,968 91 0.8% 3,236 83 2.6%

2031 18,750 130 0.7% 39.1 3,243 (77) -2.3% 11,112 144 1.3% 3,299 63 1.9%

2032 18,891 141 0.7% 39.5 3,199 (43) -1.3% 11,256 144 1.3% 3,339 39 1.2%

2033 19,038 147 0.8% 40.0 3,183 (16) -0.5% 11,363 107 1.0% 3,395 56 1.7%

2034 19,186 148 0.8% 40.4 3,195 12 0.4% 11,457 94 0.8% 3,440 44 1.3%

2035 19,330 144 0.8% 40.8 3,198 2 0.1% 11,549 92 0.8% 3,492 53 1.5%

2036 19,471 141 0.7% 41.2 3,198 1 0.0% 11,619 70 0.6% 3,566 74 2.1%

2037 19,610 138 0.7% 41.5 3,199 0 0.0% 11,695 76 0.6% 3,635 68 1.9%

2038 19,742 132 0.7% 41.9 3,197 (1) 0.0% 11,773 78 0.7% 3,697 62 1.7%

2039 19,869 127 0.6% 42.3 3,195 (2) -0.1% 11,852 79 0.7% 3,755 59 1.6%

2040 19,992 123 0.6% 42.7 3,193 (3) -0.1% 11,923 71 0.6% 3,820 65 1.7%

2041 20,112 120 0.6% 43.0 3,190 (3) -0.1% 11,998 76 0.6% 3,877 58 1.5%

2042 20,229 117 0.6% 43.3 3,187 (3) -0.1% 12,073 75 0.6% 3,934 56 1.5%

2043 20,343 114 0.6% 43.7 3,182 (5) -0.1% 12,128 56 0.5% 4,008 74 1.9%

2044 20,454 111 0.5% 44.0 3,175 (7) -0.2% 12,203 75 0.6% 4,061 53 1.3%

2045 20,562 108 0.5% 44.3 3,166 (9) -0.3% 12,270 67 0.5% 4,121 61 1.5%

2046 20,667 106 0.5% 44.5 3,155 (11) -0.4% 12,339 69 0.6% 4,179 57 1.4%

2047 20,773 105 0.5% 44.8 3,142 (13) -0.4% 12,402 62 0.5% 4,244 65 1.6%

2048 20,878 105 0.5% 45.1 3,127 (15) -0.5% 12,456 55 0.4% 4,317 73 1.7%

2049 20,988 110 0.5% 45.5 3,111 (16) -0.5% 12,504 47 0.4% 4,404 86 2.0%

2050 21,103 115 0.5% 45.8 3,094 (17) -0.6% 12,543 40 0.3% 4,502 98 2.2%

2051 21,225 122 0.6% 46.2 3,077 (17) -0.5% 12,575 32 0.3% 4,613 111 2.5%

2052 21,354 129 0.6% 46.5 3,060 (17) -0.5% 12,594 19 0.2% 4,742 130 2.8%

2053 21,489 135 0.6% 46.8 3,044 (16) -0.5% 12,603 9 0.1% 4,887 144 3.0%

2054 21,630 141 0.7% 47.2 3,028 (16) -0.5% 12,591 (11) -0.1% 5,054 168 3.4%

2055 21,775 145 0.7% 47.6 3,014 (14) -0.5% 12,555 (36) -0.3% 5,249 195 3.9%

2056 21,924 149 0.7% 47.9 3,001 (13) -0.4% 12,498 (57) -0.5% 5,466 217 4.1%

2057 22,077 152 0.7% 48.3 2,991 (11) -0.4% 12,467 (31) -0.2% 5,657 191 3.5%

2058 22,232 155 0.7% 48.6 2,983 (8) -0.3% 12,459 (8) -0.1% 5,825 168 3.0%

2059 22,390 158 0.7% 48.9 2,977 (6) -0.2% 12,474 14 0.1% 5,971 146 2.5%

2060 22,547 157 0.7% 49.2 2,973 (4) -0.1% 12,497 23 0.2% 6,105 134 2.2%

2061 22,703 156 0.7% 49.4 2,971 (2) -0.1% 12,526 30 0.2% 6,230 125 2.0%

2062 22,858 156 0.7% 49.7 2,971 0 0.0% 12,526 (1) 0.0% 6,383 153 2.5%

2063 23,013 155 0.7% 50.0 2,973 2 0.1% 12,555 29 0.2% 6,503 120 1.9%

2064 23,165 152 0.7% 50.3 2,977 4 0.1% 12,599 44 0.3% 6,605 103 1.6%

2065 23,316 150 0.6% 50.5 2,983 6 0.2% 12,631 32 0.3% 6,716 111 1.7%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 117

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 122: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

San Juan: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

1,250 750 250 250 750 1,250

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

San Juan: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

118 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 123: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: San Juan Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 San Juan 218 93 125 6 1312016 San Juan 193 84 109 291 4002017 San Juan 209 99 110 75 1852018 San Juan 211 103 108 119 2272019 San Juan 213 106 107 107 2142020 San Juan 213 110 104 84 1872021 San Juan 213 98 115 74 1892022 San Juan 213 101 112 70 1832023 San Juan 213 104 109 56 1652024 San Juan 213 107 106 42 1472025 San Juan 212 110 102 30 1322026 San Juan 212 113 99 44 1442027 San Juan 213 117 96 49 1452028 San Juan 213 120 93 49 1422029 San Juan 213 123 89 41 1312030 San Juan 212 127 86 41 1272031 San Juan 212 130 82 48 1302032 San Juan 212 134 79 62 1412033 San Juan 211 137 74 73 1472034 San Juan 210 141 70 78 1482035 San Juan 209 144 65 79 1442036 San Juan 208 148 60 81 1412037 San Juan 206 152 55 84 1382038 San Juan 204 155 49 83 1322039 San Juan 202 159 43 84 1272040 San Juan 200 162 37 86 1232041 San Juan 197 166 32 89 1202042 San Juan 195 169 26 91 1172043 San Juan 193 173 20 93 1142044 San Juan 191 176 15 95 1112045 San Juan 189 179 10 98 1082046 San Juan 187 182 5 100 1062047 San Juan 186 185 1 104 1052048 San Juan 184 188 -3 109 1052049 San Juan 183 190 -7 117 1102050 San Juan 182 193 -10 125 1152051 San Juan 182 195 -13 135 1222052 San Juan 181 198 -16 145 1292053 San Juan 182 200 -18 153 1352054 San Juan 182 202 -20 161 1412055 San Juan 182 204 -22 167 1452056 San Juan 183 207 -24 173 1492057 San Juan 183 209 -26 178 1522058 San Juan 184 211 -27 183 1552059 San Juan 185 214 -29 187 1582060 San Juan 185 216 -31 188 1572061 San Juan 186 219 -34 190 1562062 San Juan 186 223 -37 192 1562063 San Juan 186 226 -40 194 1552064 San Juan 186 230 -43 196 1522065 San Juan 187 234 -47 198 150

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 119

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 124: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

San Juan: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

San Juan: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

120 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 125: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: San Juan Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 6,386 5,146 3.032016 6,506 120 1.9% 5,337 191 3.7% 2.992017 6,681 175 2.7% 5,461 124 2.3% 2.962018 6,856 176 2.6% 5,600 139 2.5% 2.932019 7,013 157 2.3% 5,734 134 2.4% 2.892020 7,150 137 2.0% 5,863 129 2.3% 2.862021 7,277 127 1.8% 5,998 136 2.3% 2.832022 7,399 121 1.7% 6,124 125 2.1% 2.802023 7,516 117 1.6% 6,258 134 2.2% 2.762024 7,629 113 1.5% 6,383 124 2.0% 2.732025 7,738 109 1.4% 6,489 106 1.7% 2.712026 7,844 106 1.4% 6,604 116 1.8% 2.682027 7,947 103 1.3% 6,728 124 1.9% 2.652028 8,047 100 1.3% 6,844 116 1.7% 2.632029 8,145 98 1.2% 6,953 110 1.6% 2.602030 8,240 96 1.2% 7,076 123 1.8% 2.582031 8,334 93 1.1% 7,196 120 1.7% 2.552032 8,425 91 1.1% 7,306 109 1.5% 2.532033 8,514 89 1.1% 7,425 119 1.6% 2.512034 8,600 86 1.0% 7,536 111 1.5% 2.492035 8,684 84 1.0% 7,635 100 1.3% 2.482036 8,766 82 0.9% 7,741 106 1.4% 2.462037 8,847 80 0.9% 7,854 114 1.5% 2.442038 8,925 79 0.9% 7,948 94 1.2% 2.432039 9,003 77 0.9% 8,051 102 1.3% 2.412040 9,079 76 0.8% 8,154 104 1.3% 2.392041 9,154 75 0.8% 8,243 89 1.1% 2.382042 9,229 74 0.8% 8,328 85 1.0% 2.372043 9,302 74 0.8% 8,425 96 1.2% 2.362044 9,375 73 0.8% 8,511 86 1.0% 2.352045 9,447 72 0.8% 8,591 80 0.9% 2.342046 9,518 71 0.8% 8,706 116 1.3% 2.322047 9,589 71 0.7% 8,783 77 0.9% 2.312048 9,659 70 0.7% 8,866 83 0.9% 2.302049 9,729 70 0.7% 8,953 87 1.0% 2.292050 9,798 70 0.7% 9,044 91 1.0% 2.272051 9,868 69 0.7% 9,128 83 0.9% 2.272052 9,937 69 0.7% 9,222 94 1.0% 2.262053 10,007 70 0.7% 9,314 92 1.0% 2.252054 10,076 70 0.7% 9,406 92 1.0% 2.242055 10,146 70 0.7% 9,514 108 1.1% 2.232056 10,216 70 0.7% 9,618 103 1.1% 2.222057 10,286 70 0.7% 9,697 80 0.8% 2.222058 10,357 70 0.7% 9,798 100 1.0% 2.212059 10,427 70 0.7% 9,904 106 1.1% 2.202060 10,498 71 0.7% 10,003 99 1.0% 2.202061 10,568 71 0.7% 10,111 108 1.1% 2.192062 10,639 71 0.7% 10,218 107 1.1% 2.182063 10,710 71 0.7% 10,317 99 1.0% 2.172064 10,780 70 0.7% 10,426 109 1.1% 2.162065 10,850 70 0.7% 10,539 113 1.1% 2.15

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 121

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 126: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

122 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 127: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Sanpete County

Table 1: Sanpete Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 29,088 28.1 6,101 17,278 3,754

2016 29,489 401 1.4% 28.0 6,047 (54) -0.9% 17,607 329 1.9% 3,909 155 4.1%

2017 29,907 418 1.4% 28.1 5,959 (88) -1.5% 17,931 325 1.8% 4,110 201 5.1%

2018 30,362 455 1.5% 28.2 5,854 (105) -1.8% 18,255 323 1.8% 4,336 227 5.5%

2019 30,834 472 1.6% 28.4 5,750 (104) -1.8% 18,597 342 1.9% 4,547 211 4.9%

2020 31,297 463 1.5% 28.6 5,631 (119) -2.1% 18,941 345 1.9% 4,731 184 4.0%

2021 31,781 483 1.5% 28.8 5,546 (85) -1.5% 19,255 314 1.7% 4,923 192 4.1%

2022 32,259 479 1.5% 29.1 5,413 (133) -2.4% 19,620 365 1.9% 5,077 154 3.1%

2023 32,736 477 1.5% 29.4 5,299 (114) -2.1% 19,975 355 1.8% 5,225 148 2.9%

2024 33,218 482 1.5% 29.6 5,223 (76) -1.4% 20,326 351 1.8% 5,349 124 2.4%

2025 33,696 478 1.4% 29.8 5,184 (39) -0.8% 20,642 315 1.6% 5,477 128 2.4%

2026 34,176 480 1.4% 30.0 5,201 17 0.3% 20,908 266 1.3% 5,607 130 2.4%

2027 34,659 484 1.4% 30.2 5,238 38 0.7% 21,193 284 1.4% 5,708 102 1.8%

2028 35,154 495 1.4% 30.4 5,330 92 1.7% 21,461 268 1.3% 5,789 81 1.4%

2029 35,654 500 1.4% 30.6 5,418 88 1.6% 21,751 290 1.4% 5,863 75 1.3%

2030 36,158 503 1.4% 30.9 5,541 123 2.3% 22,029 279 1.3% 5,923 60 1.0%

2031 36,662 504 1.4% 31.1 5,683 142 2.6% 22,312 283 1.3% 5,970 47 0.8%

2032 37,160 498 1.4% 31.3 5,832 149 2.6% 22,592 280 1.3% 6,017 46 0.8%

2033 37,652 491 1.3% 31.5 6,002 171 2.9% 22,859 267 1.2% 6,057 40 0.7%

2034 38,128 476 1.3% 31.8 6,173 171 2.8% 23,109 250 1.1% 6,109 53 0.9%

2035 38,580 452 1.2% 32.0 6,357 184 3.0% 23,335 226 1.0% 6,159 50 0.8%

2036 39,005 425 1.1% 32.3 6,525 168 2.6% 23,556 221 0.9% 6,213 54 0.9%

2037 39,401 396 1.0% 32.6 6,671 146 2.2% 23,751 195 0.8% 6,293 80 1.3%

2038 39,765 364 0.9% 32.8 6,790 119 1.8% 23,973 221 0.9% 6,347 54 0.9%

2039 40,102 337 0.8% 33.1 6,881 91 1.3% 24,202 229 1.0% 6,397 50 0.8%

2040 40,410 308 0.8% 33.4 6,944 63 0.9% 24,439 237 1.0% 6,441 44 0.7%

2041 40,696 286 0.7% 33.6 6,979 35 0.5% 24,664 225 0.9% 6,501 60 0.9%

2042 40,964 268 0.7% 33.9 6,987 9 0.1% 24,887 223 0.9% 6,568 66 1.0%

2043 41,213 249 0.6% 34.0 6,971 (16) -0.2% 25,132 246 1.0% 6,612 44 0.7%

2044 41,451 237 0.6% 34.2 6,933 (38) -0.5% 25,379 247 1.0% 6,657 45 0.7%

2045 41,682 232 0.6% 34.3 6,877 (56) -0.8% 25,661 282 1.1% 6,671 13 0.2%

2046 41,911 228 0.5% 34.4 6,807 (71) -1.0% 25,974 314 1.2% 6,654 (16) -0.2%

2047 42,140 230 0.5% 34.5 6,726 (81) -1.2% 26,271 296 1.1% 6,658 4 0.1%

2048 42,377 237 0.6% 34.5 6,641 (85) -1.3% 26,569 298 1.1% 6,663 5 0.1%

2049 42,626 249 0.6% 34.6 6,557 (84) -1.3% 26,875 307 1.2% 6,663 (0) 0.0%

2050 42,893 267 0.6% 34.6 6,480 (77) -1.2% 27,177 302 1.1% 6,673 10 0.1%

2051 43,183 290 0.7% 34.5 6,416 (64) -1.0% 27,488 310 1.1% 6,680 7 0.1%

2052 43,499 316 0.7% 34.5 6,367 (49) -0.8% 27,798 311 1.1% 6,694 14 0.2%

2053 43,844 345 0.8% 34.5 6,337 (30) -0.5% 28,105 307 1.1% 6,720 26 0.4%

2054 44,213 369 0.8% 34.5 6,328 (10) -0.2% 28,395 290 1.0% 6,767 47 0.7%

2055 44,609 396 0.9% 34.6 6,339 11 0.2% 28,661 266 0.9% 6,845 78 1.1%

2056 45,031 422 0.9% 34.7 6,371 32 0.5% 28,893 232 0.8% 6,963 119 1.7%

2057 45,479 448 1.0% 34.8 6,423 53 0.8% 29,055 162 0.6% 7,161 198 2.8%

2058 45,951 472 1.0% 34.9 6,495 72 1.1% 29,180 124 0.4% 7,405 244 3.4%

2059 46,441 490 1.1% 35.0 6,584 88 1.4% 29,305 125 0.4% 7,654 249 3.4%

2060 46,949 508 1.1% 35.2 6,686 102 1.6% 29,457 152 0.5% 7,885 231 3.0%

2061 47,467 518 1.1% 35.4 6,797 112 1.7% 29,586 129 0.4% 8,145 260 3.3%

2062 47,992 525 1.1% 35.6 6,915 117 1.7% 29,683 97 0.3% 8,444 298 3.7%

2063 48,524 532 1.1% 35.8 7,035 120 1.7% 29,792 109 0.4% 8,739 296 3.5%

2064 49,058 534 1.1% 36.0 7,153 119 1.7% 29,909 118 0.4% 9,034 294 3.4%

2065 49,590 531 1.1% 36.3 7,267 113 1.6% 30,018 109 0.4% 9,343 309 3.4%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 123

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 128: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Sanpete: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Sanpete: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

124 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 129: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Sanpete Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Sanpete 372 185 187 196 3832016 Sanpete 384 193 191 210 4012017 Sanpete 370 199 171 247 4182018 Sanpete 390 208 182 273 4552019 Sanpete 410 219 192 280 4722020 Sanpete 431 229 202 261 4632021 Sanpete 449 208 241 242 4832022 Sanpete 466 216 250 228 4792023 Sanpete 481 223 257 220 4772024 Sanpete 494 231 264 218 4822025 Sanpete 506 238 268 210 4782026 Sanpete 516 245 272 208 4802027 Sanpete 526 251 275 209 4842028 Sanpete 533 257 276 218 4952029 Sanpete 540 263 276 224 5002030 Sanpete 544 269 274 229 5032031 Sanpete 546 275 270 234 5042032 Sanpete 546 281 264 234 4982033 Sanpete 544 287 256 235 4912034 Sanpete 540 293 247 229 4762035 Sanpete 535 299 236 215 4522036 Sanpete 530 304 225 200 4252037 Sanpete 523 310 214 182 3962038 Sanpete 517 314 202 162 3642039 Sanpete 510 319 191 145 3372040 Sanpete 505 323 182 127 3082041 Sanpete 500 327 174 113 2862042 Sanpete 498 330 168 100 2682043 Sanpete 497 333 164 86 2492044 Sanpete 498 336 162 75 2372045 Sanpete 501 339 163 69 2322046 Sanpete 506 341 165 63 2282047 Sanpete 512 342 170 60 2302048 Sanpete 519 344 175 62 2372049 Sanpete 527 345 182 67 2492050 Sanpete 535 346 189 78 2672051 Sanpete 543 347 196 94 2902052 Sanpete 551 348 204 112 3162053 Sanpete 559 348 211 134 3452054 Sanpete 566 349 217 152 3692055 Sanpete 573 350 223 173 3962056 Sanpete 578 350 228 194 4222057 Sanpete 583 351 232 217 4482058 Sanpete 586 352 234 238 4722059 Sanpete 589 353 235 255 4902060 Sanpete 590 355 235 272 5082061 Sanpete 591 357 234 284 5182062 Sanpete 591 359 232 293 5252063 Sanpete 591 361 229 303 5322064 Sanpete 590 364 226 308 5342065 Sanpete 589 367 222 310 531

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 125

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 130: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sanpete: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Sanpete: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

126 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 131: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Sanpete Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 11,990 8,611 3.082016 12,286 296 2.5% 8,786 175 2.0% 3.062017 12,556 270 2.2% 9,011 225 2.6% 3.032018 12,801 246 2.0% 9,259 247 2.7% 3.002019 13,034 233 1.8% 9,512 254 2.7% 2.962020 13,255 221 1.7% 9,743 231 2.4% 2.942021 13,464 209 1.6% 9,976 233 2.4% 2.912022 13,666 203 1.5% 10,213 238 2.4% 2.892023 13,865 199 1.5% 10,434 221 2.2% 2.872024 14,060 196 1.4% 10,647 213 2.0% 2.862025 14,254 193 1.4% 10,865 217 2.0% 2.842026 14,444 191 1.3% 11,078 214 2.0% 2.832027 14,633 189 1.3% 11,274 196 1.8% 2.822028 14,821 187 1.3% 11,456 182 1.6% 2.812029 15,006 186 1.3% 11,661 205 1.8% 2.812030 15,190 184 1.2% 11,849 188 1.6% 2.802031 15,372 182 1.2% 12,040 190 1.6% 2.802032 15,552 179 1.2% 12,241 201 1.7% 2.792033 15,728 177 1.1% 12,438 197 1.6% 2.782034 15,902 174 1.1% 12,619 181 1.5% 2.782035 16,074 172 1.1% 12,793 174 1.4% 2.772036 16,243 169 1.1% 12,965 172 1.3% 2.772037 16,411 168 1.0% 13,123 157 1.2% 2.762038 16,577 166 1.0% 13,277 154 1.2% 2.762039 16,742 165 1.0% 13,416 139 1.0% 2.752040 16,907 165 1.0% 13,557 141 1.0% 2.742041 17,072 164 1.0% 13,679 123 0.9% 2.742042 17,236 164 1.0% 13,789 110 0.8% 2.732043 17,399 164 0.9% 13,923 134 1.0% 2.722044 17,563 163 0.9% 14,069 146 1.0% 2.712045 17,725 163 0.9% 14,192 123 0.9% 2.702046 17,888 162 0.9% 14,346 154 1.1% 2.692047 18,050 162 0.9% 14,494 148 1.0% 2.672048 18,212 162 0.9% 14,620 125 0.9% 2.672049 18,373 162 0.9% 14,757 137 0.9% 2.662050 18,535 161 0.9% 14,913 156 1.1% 2.652051 18,696 161 0.9% 15,058 145 1.0% 2.642052 18,857 161 0.9% 15,200 142 0.9% 2.642053 19,017 161 0.9% 15,357 157 1.0% 2.632054 19,178 161 0.8% 15,533 176 1.1% 2.622055 19,338 160 0.8% 15,744 211 1.4% 2.612056 19,498 160 0.8% 15,932 188 1.2% 2.612057 19,658 160 0.8% 16,149 216 1.4% 2.602058 19,818 160 0.8% 16,371 222 1.4% 2.592059 19,978 159 0.8% 16,559 187 1.1% 2.592060 20,137 159 0.8% 16,760 202 1.2% 2.592061 20,295 159 0.8% 17,004 243 1.5% 2.582062 20,454 158 0.8% 17,235 231 1.4% 2.582063 20,611 158 0.8% 17,460 225 1.3% 2.582064 20,768 157 0.8% 17,700 240 1.4% 2.572065 20,924 156 0.8% 17,937 237 1.3% 2.56

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 127

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 132: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

128 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 133: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Sevier County

Table 1: Sevier Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 21,238 34.6 4,891 11,499 3,273

2016 21,517 279 1.3% 34.9 4,941 49 1.0% 11,635 136 1.2% 3,406 133 4.1%

2017 21,926 409 1.9% 35.2 4,949 8 0.2% 11,824 190 1.6% 3,569 163 4.8%

2018 22,357 431 2.0% 35.6 4,941 (8) -0.2% 12,040 215 1.8% 3,729 160 4.5%

2019 22,754 397 1.8% 35.9 4,971 30 0.6% 12,204 164 1.4% 3,901 172 4.6%

2020 23,097 343 1.5% 36.2 4,996 25 0.5% 12,354 150 1.2% 4,064 163 4.2%

2021 23,430 333 1.4% 36.5 4,984 (12) -0.2% 12,509 155 1.3% 4,226 162 4.0%

2022 23,730 300 1.3% 36.8 4,965 (20) -0.4% 12,671 162 1.3% 4,374 147 3.5%

2023 24,006 276 1.2% 37.1 4,948 (16) -0.3% 12,827 155 1.2% 4,503 129 3.0%

2024 24,260 254 1.1% 37.3 4,920 (29) -0.6% 12,963 137 1.1% 4,642 139 3.1%

2025 24,494 234 1.0% 37.5 4,888 (31) -0.6% 13,101 138 1.1% 4,761 119 2.6%

2026 24,736 241 1.0% 37.7 4,871 (18) -0.4% 13,219 117 0.9% 4,890 129 2.7%

2027 24,967 231 0.9% 37.9 4,860 (11) -0.2% 13,339 121 0.9% 4,998 107 2.2%

2028 25,211 244 1.0% 38.1 4,851 (9) -0.2% 13,478 138 1.0% 5,095 98 2.0%

2029 25,465 254 1.0% 38.3 4,849 (2) 0.0% 13,632 154 1.1% 5,177 81 1.6%

2030 25,720 255 1.0% 38.6 4,907 59 1.2% 13,757 125 0.9% 5,227 50 1.0%

2031 25,967 248 1.0% 38.8 4,975 68 1.4% 13,881 124 0.9% 5,265 38 0.7%

2032 26,214 246 0.9% 39.1 5,018 43 0.9% 14,028 148 1.1% 5,304 39 0.7%

2033 26,452 239 0.9% 39.3 5,042 24 0.5% 14,213 184 1.3% 5,320 16 0.3%

2034 26,680 227 0.9% 39.4 5,089 47 0.9% 14,369 156 1.1% 5,335 15 0.3%

2035 26,896 216 0.8% 39.6 5,120 30 0.6% 14,504 135 0.9% 5,382 47 0.9%

2036 27,103 208 0.8% 39.8 5,150 30 0.6% 14,637 133 0.9% 5,427 44 0.8%

2037 27,305 202 0.7% 40.0 5,181 31 0.6% 14,762 125 0.9% 5,476 50 0.9%

2038 27,501 196 0.7% 40.1 5,213 32 0.6% 14,885 124 0.8% 5,524 47 0.9%

2039 27,696 195 0.7% 40.3 5,245 32 0.6% 14,991 105 0.7% 5,588 65 1.2%

2040 27,893 197 0.7% 40.4 5,276 31 0.6% 15,090 100 0.7% 5,661 72 1.3%

2041 28,091 198 0.7% 40.6 5,304 28 0.5% 15,171 80 0.5% 5,754 94 1.7%

2042 28,292 200 0.7% 40.7 5,330 26 0.5% 15,224 53 0.3% 5,879 124 2.2%

2043 28,490 198 0.7% 40.9 5,351 21 0.4% 15,264 41 0.3% 6,015 136 2.3%

2044 28,686 197 0.7% 41.1 5,368 17 0.3% 15,300 36 0.2% 6,157 142 2.4%

2045 28,879 193 0.7% 41.3 5,381 12 0.2% 15,322 22 0.1% 6,312 155 2.5%

2046 29,068 189 0.7% 41.5 5,389 8 0.1% 15,361 39 0.3% 6,451 138 2.2%

2047 29,253 186 0.6% 41.7 5,392 4 0.1% 15,419 57 0.4% 6,570 120 1.9%

2048 29,438 184 0.6% 42.0 5,393 1 0.0% 15,475 56 0.4% 6,692 122 1.8%

2049 29,620 183 0.6% 42.2 5,391 (1) 0.0% 15,544 69 0.4% 6,800 108 1.6%

2050 29,804 184 0.6% 42.4 5,389 (2) 0.0% 15,615 71 0.5% 6,909 108 1.6%

2051 29,992 188 0.6% 42.6 5,388 (1) 0.0% 15,709 94 0.6% 6,996 87 1.3%

2052 30,184 191 0.6% 42.8 5,388 1 0.0% 15,806 98 0.6% 7,078 83 1.2%

2053 30,377 194 0.6% 42.9 5,392 4 0.1% 15,894 88 0.6% 7,170 91 1.3%

2054 30,574 196 0.6% 43.1 5,399 7 0.1% 15,979 85 0.5% 7,262 92 1.3%

2055 30,774 200 0.7% 43.1 5,410 11 0.2% 16,044 65 0.4% 7,373 111 1.5%

2056 30,976 203 0.7% 43.1 5,425 15 0.3% 16,097 53 0.3% 7,495 122 1.7%

2057 31,183 206 0.7% 43.1 5,443 18 0.3% 16,125 27 0.2% 7,642 147 2.0%

2058 31,393 210 0.7% 43.2 5,464 22 0.4% 16,158 34 0.2% 7,784 141 1.8%

2059 31,603 210 0.7% 43.2 5,489 24 0.4% 16,220 62 0.4% 7,896 112 1.4%

2060 31,812 209 0.7% 43.3 5,515 26 0.5% 16,302 82 0.5% 7,985 90 1.1%

2061 32,019 207 0.7% 43.4 5,543 28 0.5% 16,362 60 0.4% 8,094 109 1.4%

2062 32,222 203 0.6% 43.4 5,571 29 0.5% 16,413 51 0.3% 8,209 115 1.4%

2063 32,420 198 0.6% 43.5 5,600 29 0.5% 16,483 70 0.4% 8,302 93 1.1%

2064 32,614 194 0.6% 43.6 5,630 29 0.5% 16,556 74 0.4% 8,387 85 1.0%

2065 32,802 188 0.6% 43.6 5,659 29 0.5% 16,617 61 0.4% 8,480 93 1.1%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 129

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 134: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Sevier: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Sevier: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

130 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 135: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Sevier Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Sevier 328 206 122 15 1372016 Sevier 302 188 114 165 2792017 Sevier 323 178 145 264 4092018 Sevier 326 186 140 291 4312019 Sevier 329 195 134 263 3972020 Sevier 331 203 128 215 3432021 Sevier 333 184 149 184 3332022 Sevier 335 191 144 156 3002023 Sevier 337 197 140 136 2762024 Sevier 340 203 136 117 2542025 Sevier 343 209 134 101 2342026 Sevier 346 214 132 110 2412027 Sevier 350 219 131 100 2312028 Sevier 354 224 130 114 2442029 Sevier 359 229 130 124 2542030 Sevier 362 234 129 126 2552031 Sevier 365 239 127 121 2482032 Sevier 367 243 124 123 2462033 Sevier 368 248 120 119 2392034 Sevier 368 253 115 112 2272035 Sevier 367 258 109 107 2162036 Sevier 365 262 103 105 2082037 Sevier 364 267 97 105 2022038 Sevier 362 271 91 106 1962039 Sevier 361 276 86 109 1952040 Sevier 361 280 81 116 1972041 Sevier 360 284 77 121 1982042 Sevier 361 287 73 127 2002043 Sevier 361 291 71 127 1982044 Sevier 362 294 68 129 1972045 Sevier 363 297 66 127 1932046 Sevier 364 300 64 125 1892047 Sevier 365 303 62 123 1862048 Sevier 367 306 61 123 1842049 Sevier 368 308 60 122 1832050 Sevier 370 310 60 124 1842051 Sevier 372 312 60 128 1882052 Sevier 374 314 60 131 1912053 Sevier 377 316 61 133 1942054 Sevier 380 318 62 134 1962055 Sevier 382 320 63 138 2002056 Sevier 385 322 63 140 2032057 Sevier 387 324 63 143 2062058 Sevier 389 326 64 147 2102059 Sevier 391 328 63 147 2102060 Sevier 393 331 62 147 2092061 Sevier 395 335 60 147 2072062 Sevier 396 338 58 145 2032063 Sevier 397 342 54 144 1982064 Sevier 398 347 51 143 1942065 Sevier 398 352 46 141 188

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 131

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 136: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sevier: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Sevier: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

132 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 137: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Sevier Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 11,938 7,553 2.772016 12,263 325 2.7% 7,699 145 1.9% 2.752017 12,643 380 3.1% 7,896 197 2.6% 2.742018 12,996 353 2.8% 8,098 203 2.6% 2.722019 13,301 305 2.3% 8,297 199 2.5% 2.702020 13,557 257 1.9% 8,491 194 2.3% 2.682021 13,784 227 1.7% 8,674 183 2.2% 2.662022 13,994 209 1.5% 8,834 160 1.8% 2.642023 14,192 199 1.4% 8,994 160 1.8% 2.632024 14,382 190 1.3% 9,139 145 1.6% 2.612025 14,564 182 1.3% 9,279 140 1.5% 2.602026 14,739 175 1.2% 9,423 144 1.6% 2.582027 14,909 170 1.2% 9,551 128 1.4% 2.572028 15,074 165 1.1% 9,669 118 1.2% 2.562029 15,234 161 1.1% 9,819 150 1.6% 2.552030 15,391 157 1.0% 9,951 132 1.3% 2.542031 15,544 153 1.0% 10,067 116 1.2% 2.542032 15,693 149 1.0% 10,189 122 1.2% 2.532033 15,838 145 0.9% 10,315 126 1.2% 2.522034 15,978 140 0.9% 10,439 124 1.2% 2.512035 16,114 136 0.9% 10,559 120 1.2% 2.502036 16,246 132 0.8% 10,658 98 0.9% 2.502037 16,374 128 0.8% 10,748 90 0.8% 2.492038 16,498 125 0.8% 10,845 97 0.9% 2.492039 16,620 122 0.7% 10,940 94 0.9% 2.482040 16,740 119 0.7% 11,031 92 0.8% 2.482041 16,857 117 0.7% 11,132 101 0.9% 2.482042 16,971 115 0.7% 11,228 96 0.9% 2.472043 17,083 112 0.7% 11,329 101 0.9% 2.472044 17,194 110 0.6% 11,456 127 1.1% 2.462045 17,302 108 0.6% 11,548 92 0.8% 2.452046 17,408 106 0.6% 11,644 96 0.8% 2.452047 17,512 104 0.6% 11,738 95 0.8% 2.442048 17,614 103 0.6% 11,838 100 0.9% 2.442049 17,716 101 0.6% 11,953 114 1.0% 2.432050 17,816 100 0.6% 12,039 86 0.7% 2.432051 17,915 99 0.6% 12,138 99 0.8% 2.422052 18,013 98 0.5% 12,248 110 0.9% 2.412053 18,110 97 0.5% 12,336 88 0.7% 2.412054 18,206 96 0.5% 12,427 91 0.7% 2.412055 18,302 96 0.5% 12,526 99 0.8% 2.412056 18,397 95 0.5% 12,656 130 1.0% 2.402057 18,492 95 0.5% 12,776 120 0.9% 2.392058 18,586 94 0.5% 12,917 141 1.1% 2.382059 18,679 93 0.5% 13,013 96 0.7% 2.382060 18,772 93 0.5% 13,134 121 0.9% 2.372061 18,863 92 0.5% 13,240 105 0.8% 2.372062 18,954 91 0.5% 13,334 95 0.7% 2.372063 19,044 90 0.5% 13,431 97 0.7% 2.372064 19,133 89 0.5% 13,535 104 0.8% 2.362065 19,220 87 0.5% 13,629 94 0.7% 2.36

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 133

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 138: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

134 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 139: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Summit County

Table 1: Summit Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 39,278 40.0 7,539 25,484 4,106

2016 40,050 772 2.0% 40.5 7,508 (31) -0.4% 25,957 473 1.9% 4,476 370 9.0%

2017 40,740 690 1.7% 40.9 7,423 (85) -1.1% 26,257 300 1.2% 4,842 366 8.2%

2018 41,436 696 1.7% 41.3 7,301 (122) -1.6% 26,514 257 1.0% 5,269 427 8.8%

2019 42,135 699 1.7% 41.6 7,169 (132) -1.8% 26,758 244 0.9% 5,708 438 8.3%

2020 42,829 694 1.6% 42.0 7,046 (123) -1.7% 27,014 256 1.0% 6,144 436 7.6%

2021 43,553 724 1.7% 42.3 6,917 (129) -1.8% 27,244 230 0.9% 6,616 472 7.7%

2022 44,268 715 1.6% 42.6 6,913 (4) -0.1% 27,436 192 0.7% 7,096 480 7.3%

2023 44,978 711 1.6% 42.9 6,947 34 0.5% 27,563 126 0.5% 7,605 508 7.2%

2024 45,691 712 1.6% 43.1 6,977 30 0.4% 27,710 147 0.5% 8,096 491 6.5%

2025 46,404 713 1.6% 43.4 7,025 48 0.7% 27,863 153 0.6% 8,562 467 5.8%

2026 47,205 801 1.7% 43.5 7,123 98 1.4% 28,063 200 0.7% 9,015 452 5.3%

2027 48,015 810 1.7% 43.7 7,256 133 1.9% 28,255 192 0.7% 9,450 436 4.8%

2028 48,844 828 1.7% 43.9 7,406 150 2.1% 28,422 167 0.6% 9,914 464 4.9%

2029 49,692 848 1.7% 44.2 7,575 168 2.3% 28,591 170 0.6% 10,378 464 4.7%

2030 50,558 867 1.7% 44.4 7,801 227 3.0% 28,760 169 0.6% 10,808 430 4.1%

2031 51,429 870 1.7% 44.6 8,062 260 3.3% 28,958 198 0.7% 11,185 377 3.5%

2032 52,300 871 1.7% 44.8 8,342 281 3.5% 29,135 177 0.6% 11,570 384 3.4%

2033 53,141 841 1.6% 44.9 8,597 255 3.1% 29,347 212 0.7% 11,922 352 3.0%

2034 53,945 804 1.5% 44.9 8,866 268 3.1% 29,503 156 0.5% 12,289 367 3.1%

2035 54,706 761 1.4% 44.9 9,027 162 1.8% 29,691 188 0.6% 12,695 406 3.3%

2036 55,427 721 1.3% 44.9 9,163 135 1.5% 29,900 209 0.7% 13,072 377 3.0%

2037 56,113 686 1.2% 45.1 9,282 119 1.3% 30,137 237 0.8% 13,408 336 2.6%

2038 56,763 651 1.2% 45.3 9,386 104 1.1% 30,392 255 0.8% 13,710 302 2.3%

2039 57,386 623 1.1% 45.5 9,476 90 1.0% 30,663 271 0.9% 13,983 273 2.0%

2040 57,983 597 1.0% 45.6 9,551 75 0.8% 30,922 259 0.8% 14,256 272 1.9%

2041 58,551 569 1.0% 45.8 9,608 58 0.6% 31,194 271 0.9% 14,500 244 1.7%

2042 59,098 546 0.9% 46.0 9,648 39 0.4% 31,452 258 0.8% 14,745 246 1.7%

2043 59,625 527 0.9% 46.1 9,670 22 0.2% 31,707 256 0.8% 14,981 236 1.6%

2044 60,139 515 0.9% 46.3 9,680 9 0.1% 31,985 277 0.9% 15,186 205 1.4%

2045 60,644 505 0.8% 46.4 9,680 0 0.0% 32,250 265 0.8% 15,393 207 1.4%

2046 61,141 497 0.8% 46.6 9,674 (6) -0.1% 32,520 270 0.8% 15,584 191 1.2%

2047 61,631 490 0.8% 46.7 9,666 (8) -0.1% 32,821 301 0.9% 15,734 150 1.0%

2048 62,120 489 0.8% 46.8 9,660 (6) -0.1% 33,128 308 0.9% 15,868 134 0.9%

2049 62,607 487 0.8% 46.9 9,661 0 0.0% 33,381 253 0.8% 16,046 179 1.1%

2050 63,097 490 0.8% 47.1 9,671 10 0.1% 33,545 164 0.5% 16,304 258 1.6%

2051 63,595 498 0.8% 47.1 9,696 25 0.3% 33,676 131 0.4% 16,587 283 1.7%

2052 64,096 501 0.8% 47.2 9,736 40 0.4% 33,811 135 0.4% 16,854 267 1.6%

2053 64,600 504 0.8% 47.2 9,792 56 0.6% 34,023 212 0.6% 17,032 178 1.1%

2054 65,109 509 0.8% 47.2 9,865 74 0.8% 34,337 314 0.9% 17,097 65 0.4%

2055 65,624 515 0.8% 47.2 9,957 91 0.9% 34,672 335 1.0% 17,133 35 0.2%

2056 66,145 521 0.8% 47.1 10,065 108 1.1% 34,981 309 0.9% 17,188 55 0.3%

2057 66,669 524 0.8% 47.0 10,187 122 1.2% 35,205 224 0.6% 17,321 134 0.8%

2058 67,196 527 0.8% 46.8 10,321 133 1.3% 35,362 157 0.4% 17,518 196 1.1%

2059 67,723 527 0.8% 46.6 10,462 141 1.4% 35,514 152 0.4% 17,717 199 1.1%

2060 68,248 525 0.8% 46.3 10,607 145 1.4% 35,661 147 0.4% 17,920 203 1.1%

2061 68,769 521 0.8% 46.0 10,752 145 1.4% 35,800 138 0.4% 18,134 213 1.2%

2062 69,282 513 0.7% 45.8 10,894 142 1.3% 35,928 128 0.4% 18,358 225 1.2%

2063 69,784 501 0.7% 45.7 11,028 134 1.2% 36,058 130 0.4% 18,581 223 1.2%

2064 70,273 489 0.7% 45.6 11,153 125 1.1% 36,213 154 0.4% 18,781 200 1.1%

2065 70,750 477 0.7% 45.6 11,267 114 1.0% 36,365 152 0.4% 18,986 205 1.1%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 135

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 140: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Summit: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Summit: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

136 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 141: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Summit Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Summit 442 138 304 297 6012016 Summit 425 165 260 512 7722017 Summit 543 216 327 363 6902018 Summit 550 228 322 374 6962019 Summit 558 241 317 382 6992020 Summit 567 255 312 382 6942021 Summit 576 232 345 380 7242022 Summit 586 243 342 372 7152023 Summit 595 255 339 371 7112024 Summit 604 268 336 376 7122025 Summit 613 281 332 381 7132026 Summit 621 295 326 476 8012027 Summit 629 310 320 490 8102028 Summit 637 325 312 516 8282029 Summit 644 340 303 544 8482030 Summit 649 356 293 574 8672031 Summit 653 373 280 590 8702032 Summit 656 390 266 606 8712033 Summit 657 408 250 591 8412034 Summit 658 425 232 572 8042035 Summit 657 443 213 548 7612036 Summit 655 462 193 527 7212037 Summit 653 480 173 513 6862038 Summit 651 498 152 498 6512039 Summit 650 516 133 489 6232040 Summit 651 534 116 480 5972041 Summit 654 552 102 467 5692042 Summit 659 569 90 457 5462043 Summit 666 586 80 447 5272044 Summit 675 603 73 442 5152045 Summit 685 618 67 438 5052046 Summit 697 633 63 433 4972047 Summit 708 647 61 429 4902048 Summit 720 661 59 429 4892049 Summit 732 673 59 428 4872050 Summit 744 685 59 431 4902051 Summit 755 696 60 438 4982052 Summit 767 705 61 439 5012053 Summit 778 714 63 441 5042054 Summit 788 723 65 444 5092055 Summit 797 730 67 448 5152056 Summit 805 736 69 452 5212057 Summit 813 742 70 454 5242058 Summit 819 748 71 456 5272059 Summit 824 753 71 457 5272060 Summit 828 758 70 455 5252061 Summit 831 763 69 452 5212062 Summit 834 767 67 446 5132063 Summit 836 771 64 437 5012064 Summit 837 776 61 428 4892065 Summit 838 780 57 420 477

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 137

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 142: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Summit: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Summit: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

138 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 143: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 39,799 15,044 2.602016 41,282 1,483 3.7% 15,504 460 3.1% 2.582017 42,604 1,322 3.2% 15,888 384 2.5% 2.562018 43,770 1,167 2.7% 16,284 396 2.5% 2.542019 44,839 1,068 2.4% 16,692 408 2.5% 2.522020 45,818 979 2.2% 17,090 398 2.4% 2.502021 46,721 903 2.0% 17,508 418 2.4% 2.482022 47,576 855 1.8% 17,924 416 2.4% 2.462023 48,398 823 1.7% 18,327 403 2.2% 2.452024 49,196 797 1.6% 18,723 396 2.2% 2.432025 49,973 777 1.6% 19,126 403 2.2% 2.422026 50,735 762 1.5% 19,564 439 2.3% 2.412027 51,485 750 1.5% 19,998 434 2.2% 2.392028 52,227 742 1.4% 20,452 453 2.3% 2.382029 52,961 735 1.4% 20,877 425 2.1% 2.372030 53,691 729 1.4% 21,289 412 2.0% 2.372031 54,415 724 1.3% 21,699 411 1.9% 2.362032 55,132 717 1.3% 22,104 405 1.9% 2.362033 55,842 710 1.3% 22,500 396 1.8% 2.362034 56,545 703 1.3% 22,902 402 1.8% 2.352035 57,240 696 1.2% 23,289 387 1.7% 2.342036 57,930 689 1.2% 23,650 361 1.6% 2.342037 58,614 684 1.2% 23,968 317 1.3% 2.342038 59,294 680 1.2% 24,269 302 1.3% 2.332039 59,971 677 1.1% 24,584 314 1.3% 2.332040 60,647 675 1.1% 24,878 295 1.2% 2.332041 61,321 674 1.1% 25,153 275 1.1% 2.322042 61,994 673 1.1% 25,427 274 1.1% 2.322043 62,666 672 1.1% 25,672 245 1.0% 2.322044 63,338 671 1.1% 25,908 235 0.9% 2.322045 64,008 670 1.1% 26,140 232 0.9% 2.312046 64,677 669 1.0% 26,374 234 0.9% 2.312047 65,344 667 1.0% 26,585 211 0.8% 2.312048 66,009 665 1.0% 26,805 220 0.8% 2.312049 66,672 663 1.0% 27,033 228 0.8% 2.312050 67,332 660 1.0% 27,253 219 0.8% 2.312051 67,990 658 1.0% 27,482 229 0.8% 2.312052 68,644 654 1.0% 27,678 196 0.7% 2.312053 69,295 651 0.9% 27,876 199 0.7% 2.312054 69,941 646 0.9% 28,084 208 0.7% 2.312055 70,583 642 0.9% 28,300 215 0.8% 2.312056 71,221 637 0.9% 28,550 250 0.9% 2.312057 71,853 632 0.9% 28,769 219 0.8% 2.312058 72,480 627 0.9% 28,965 196 0.7% 2.312059 73,101 621 0.9% 29,149 184 0.6% 2.322060 73,717 616 0.8% 29,324 175 0.6% 2.322061 74,326 609 0.8% 29,506 183 0.6% 2.332062 74,929 603 0.8% 29,717 211 0.7% 2.332063 75,525 596 0.8% 29,937 219 0.7% 2.332064 76,113 588 0.8% 30,149 212 0.7% 2.332065 76,693 580 0.8% 30,357 208 0.7% 2.33

Total Employment Total HouseholdsTable 3: Summit Employment and Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 139

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 144: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

140 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 145: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Tooele County

Table 1: Tooele Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 63,262 32.4 16,492 36,375 5,512

2016 65,285 2,023 3.2% 32.7 16,728 236 1.4% 37,818 1,442 4.0% 5,801 290 5.3%

2017 67,550 2,265 3.5% 33.1 16,952 224 1.3% 39,278 1,460 3.9% 6,264 462 8.0%

2018 69,862 2,311 3.4% 33.6 17,111 159 0.9% 40,833 1,555 4.0% 6,734 470 7.5%

2019 72,121 2,259 3.2% 34.0 17,212 100 0.6% 42,337 1,504 3.7% 7,233 499 7.4%

2020 74,293 2,172 3.0% 34.3 17,263 51 0.3% 43,766 1,429 3.4% 7,734 502 6.9%

2021 76,418 2,125 2.9% 34.7 17,222 (41) -0.2% 45,158 1,392 3.2% 8,320 585 7.6%

2022 78,429 2,012 2.6% 35.0 17,167 (55) -0.3% 46,478 1,320 2.9% 8,913 593 7.1%

2023 80,329 1,900 2.4% 35.3 17,109 (58) -0.3% 47,766 1,288 2.8% 9,434 521 5.8%

2024 82,150 1,821 2.3% 35.5 17,014 (96) -0.6% 49,053 1,287 2.7% 9,914 479 5.1%

2025 83,922 1,772 2.2% 35.8 16,865 (149) -0.9% 50,326 1,273 2.6% 10,407 493 5.0%

2026 85,753 1,831 2.2% 36.0 16,796 (69) -0.4% 51,559 1,233 2.4% 10,911 504 4.8%

2027 87,605 1,852 2.2% 36.2 16,820 24 0.1% 52,707 1,149 2.2% 11,431 519 4.8%

2028 89,479 1,874 2.1% 36.4 16,908 88 0.5% 53,821 1,114 2.1% 11,947 517 4.5%

2029 91,365 1,887 2.1% 36.6 17,136 228 1.3% 54,855 1,034 1.9% 12,424 476 4.0%

2030 93,258 1,892 2.1% 36.8 17,427 292 1.7% 55,855 1,000 1.8% 12,888 464 3.7%

2031 95,149 1,891 2.0% 37.0 17,734 306 1.8% 56,885 1,030 1.8% 13,320 432 3.4%

2032 97,029 1,880 2.0% 37.2 18,077 344 1.9% 57,854 969 1.7% 13,781 461 3.5%

2033 98,868 1,839 1.9% 37.5 18,462 385 2.1% 58,713 859 1.5% 14,295 514 3.7%

2034 100,641 1,773 1.8% 37.7 18,848 386 2.1% 59,507 793 1.4% 14,834 539 3.8%

2035 102,338 1,697 1.7% 38.0 19,184 336 1.8% 60,247 740 1.2% 15,425 591 4.0%

2036 103,953 1,614 1.6% 38.3 19,497 313 1.6% 60,870 623 1.0% 16,098 673 4.4%

2037 105,485 1,532 1.5% 38.6 19,787 290 1.5% 61,438 569 0.9% 16,787 689 4.3%

2038 106,929 1,444 1.4% 38.9 20,048 261 1.3% 61,983 544 0.9% 17,456 670 4.0%

2039 108,278 1,350 1.3% 39.2 20,272 224 1.1% 62,475 493 0.8% 18,132 676 3.9%

2040 109,548 1,269 1.2% 39.5 20,456 185 0.9% 62,886 411 0.7% 18,854 721 4.0%

2041 110,788 1,240 1.1% 39.9 20,610 153 0.7% 63,269 384 0.6% 19,601 747 4.0%

2042 112,003 1,216 1.1% 40.2 20,731 121 0.6% 63,604 334 0.5% 20,398 797 4.1%

2043 113,190 1,186 1.1% 40.5 20,818 87 0.4% 63,900 296 0.5% 21,230 832 4.1%

2044 114,345 1,155 1.0% 40.9 20,872 54 0.3% 64,174 274 0.4% 22,075 845 4.0%

2045 115,463 1,118 1.0% 41.2 20,894 22 0.1% 64,406 232 0.4% 22,946 871 3.9%

2046 116,546 1,083 0.9% 41.6 20,887 (6) 0.0% 64,625 219 0.3% 23,812 867 3.8%

2047 117,592 1,047 0.9% 41.9 20,855 (32) -0.2% 64,887 262 0.4% 24,616 803 3.4%

2048 118,609 1,016 0.9% 42.2 20,804 (51) -0.2% 65,208 322 0.5% 25,337 722 2.9%

2049 119,602 993 0.8% 42.6 20,741 (64) -0.3% 65,621 413 0.6% 25,948 610 2.4%

2050 120,575 973 0.8% 42.9 20,672 (69) -0.3% 66,070 449 0.7% 26,499 551 2.1%

2051 121,538 963 0.8% 43.2 20,608 (64) -0.3% 66,548 478 0.7% 26,997 498 1.9%

2052 122,492 953 0.8% 43.5 20,552 (55) -0.3% 67,032 484 0.7% 27,465 468 1.7%

2053 123,435 943 0.8% 43.7 20,511 (42) -0.2% 67,569 537 0.8% 27,851 386 1.4%

2054 124,366 931 0.8% 43.9 20,487 (24) -0.1% 68,156 588 0.9% 28,155 304 1.1%

2055 125,291 925 0.7% 44.1 20,485 (2) 0.0% 68,700 544 0.8% 28,475 320 1.1%

2056 126,213 922 0.7% 44.1 20,506 21 0.1% 69,138 438 0.6% 28,876 401 1.4%

2057 127,134 921 0.7% 44.2 20,551 45 0.2% 69,544 406 0.6% 29,287 411 1.4%

2058 128,057 922 0.7% 44.2 20,619 68 0.3% 69,948 404 0.6% 29,682 395 1.3%

2059 128,978 922 0.7% 44.3 20,709 89 0.4% 70,336 388 0.6% 30,076 394 1.3%

2060 129,894 916 0.7% 44.2 20,816 107 0.5% 70,711 375 0.5% 30,465 389 1.3%

2061 130,803 908 0.7% 44.3 20,938 122 0.6% 71,023 311 0.4% 30,903 437 1.4%

2062 131,701 899 0.7% 44.3 21,072 134 0.6% 71,224 201 0.3% 31,436 534 1.7%

2063 132,581 880 0.7% 44.3 21,212 140 0.7% 71,427 203 0.3% 31,949 513 1.6%

2064 133,438 857 0.6% 44.3 21,355 143 0.7% 71,634 207 0.3% 32,440 491 1.5%

2065 134,272 834 0.6% 44.4 21,496 141 0.7% 71,765 131 0.2% 32,990 550 1.7%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 141

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 146: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Tooele: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Tooele: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

142 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 147: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Tooele Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Tooele 953 361 592 488 1,0802016 Tooele 973 358 615 1,408 2,0232017 Tooele 1,039 317 722 1,543 2,2652018 Tooele 1,069 336 733 1,579 2,3112019 Tooele 1,103 357 745 1,513 2,2592020 Tooele 1,137 378 759 1,413 2,1722021 Tooele 1,173 347 826 1,299 2,1252022 Tooele 1,210 364 846 1,166 2,0122023 Tooele 1,246 381 865 1,034 1,9002024 Tooele 1,280 397 883 938 1,8212025 Tooele 1,314 414 900 872 1,7722026 Tooele 1,347 431 915 916 1,8312027 Tooele 1,378 449 930 923 1,8522028 Tooele 1,408 467 941 933 1,8742029 Tooele 1,435 485 950 937 1,8872030 Tooele 1,459 505 954 938 1,8922031 Tooele 1,477 524 953 939 1,8912032 Tooele 1,491 545 946 933 1,8802033 Tooele 1,500 566 933 906 1,8392034 Tooele 1,503 588 915 858 1,7732035 Tooele 1,503 611 892 805 1,6972036 Tooele 1,499 634 865 749 1,6142037 Tooele 1,493 657 835 697 1,5322038 Tooele 1,485 681 804 640 1,4442039 Tooele 1,477 705 772 578 1,3502040 Tooele 1,469 729 740 529 1,2692041 Tooele 1,463 753 709 531 1,2402042 Tooele 1,458 778 680 535 1,2162043 Tooele 1,457 802 654 532 1,1862044 Tooele 1,457 827 630 525 1,1552045 Tooele 1,460 852 608 510 1,1182046 Tooele 1,465 876 589 494 1,0832047 Tooele 1,472 900 572 475 1,0472048 Tooele 1,481 925 556 460 1,0162049 Tooele 1,492 949 543 450 9932050 Tooele 1,504 973 531 443 9732051 Tooele 1,516 996 520 443 9632052 Tooele 1,530 1,020 510 444 9532053 Tooele 1,543 1,044 500 443 9432054 Tooele 1,557 1,067 489 442 9312055 Tooele 1,569 1,091 478 447 9252056 Tooele 1,581 1,115 465 457 9222057 Tooele 1,591 1,140 451 470 9212058 Tooele 1,600 1,164 436 487 9222059 Tooele 1,608 1,189 419 503 9222060 Tooele 1,614 1,214 400 516 9162061 Tooele 1,619 1,239 379 529 9082062 Tooele 1,622 1,265 357 542 8992063 Tooele 1,624 1,291 333 546 8802064 Tooele 1,626 1,317 309 549 8572065 Tooele 1,627 1,343 284 549 834

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 143

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 148: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Tooele: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Tooele: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

144 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 149: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Tooele Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 21,331 20,707 3.042016 22,022 691 3.2% 21,536 829 4.0% 3.012017 22,658 637 2.9% 22,480 944 4.4% 2.992018 23,240 581 2.6% 23,462 982 4.4% 2.962019 23,779 539 2.3% 24,441 978 4.2% 2.932020 24,264 485 2.0% 25,428 988 4.0% 2.902021 24,700 436 1.8% 26,437 1,009 4.0% 2.872022 25,110 409 1.7% 27,388 951 3.6% 2.852023 25,504 395 1.6% 28,303 914 3.3% 2.822024 25,889 384 1.5% 29,208 905 3.2% 2.802025 26,266 377 1.5% 30,108 900 3.1% 2.772026 26,638 372 1.4% 31,023 915 3.0% 2.752027 27,006 368 1.4% 31,924 900 2.9% 2.732028 27,371 365 1.4% 32,816 893 2.8% 2.712029 27,731 361 1.3% 33,710 894 2.7% 2.692030 28,088 357 1.3% 34,608 897 2.7% 2.682031 28,440 352 1.3% 35,503 895 2.6% 2.662032 28,786 346 1.2% 36,382 880 2.5% 2.652033 29,127 341 1.2% 37,253 871 2.4% 2.642034 29,462 335 1.1% 38,109 856 2.3% 2.622035 29,791 329 1.1% 38,929 820 2.2% 2.612036 30,115 324 1.1% 39,723 794 2.0% 2.602037 30,434 319 1.1% 40,480 757 1.9% 2.592038 30,750 315 1.0% 41,201 721 1.8% 2.582039 31,062 312 1.0% 41,879 678 1.6% 2.572040 31,372 310 1.0% 42,532 653 1.6% 2.562041 31,679 308 1.0% 43,186 654 1.5% 2.542042 31,985 306 1.0% 43,839 653 1.5% 2.532043 32,289 304 1.0% 44,475 636 1.5% 2.522044 32,591 302 0.9% 45,091 617 1.4% 2.512045 32,892 300 0.9% 45,686 594 1.3% 2.502046 33,191 299 0.9% 46,270 585 1.3% 2.492047 33,488 297 0.9% 46,846 575 1.2% 2.492048 33,783 295 0.9% 47,409 563 1.2% 2.482049 34,077 294 0.9% 47,962 553 1.2% 2.472050 34,370 293 0.9% 48,512 549 1.1% 2.462051 34,661 291 0.8% 49,069 557 1.1% 2.452052 34,951 290 0.8% 49,593 524 1.1% 2.442053 35,240 289 0.8% 50,087 494 1.0% 2.442054 35,528 288 0.8% 50,594 507 1.0% 2.432055 35,814 286 0.8% 51,099 505 1.0% 2.422056 36,099 285 0.8% 51,586 487 1.0% 2.422057 36,383 284 0.8% 52,055 469 0.9% 2.412058 36,665 282 0.8% 52,496 441 0.8% 2.412059 36,946 281 0.8% 52,926 429 0.8% 2.412060 37,225 279 0.8% 53,370 444 0.8% 2.402061 37,502 277 0.7% 53,819 449 0.8% 2.402062 37,776 275 0.7% 54,245 425 0.8% 2.402063 38,048 272 0.7% 54,678 433 0.8% 2.392064 38,317 269 0.7% 55,122 445 0.8% 2.392065 38,583 266 0.7% 55,536 414 0.8% 2.38

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 145

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 150: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

146 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 151: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Uintah County

Table 1: Uintah Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 37,396 30.7 9,157 21,198 3,374

2016 36,580 (815) -2.2% 31.2 9,002 (156) -1.7% 20,553 (645) -3.0% 3,540 165 4.9%

2017 37,419 839 2.3% 31.6 9,244 242 2.7% 20,961 408 2.0% 3,722 182 5.1%

2018 38,328 908 2.4% 31.9 9,589 345 3.7% 21,397 435 2.1% 3,899 178 4.8%

2019 39,112 784 2.0% 32.3 9,907 318 3.3% 21,740 343 1.6% 4,104 205 5.3%

2020 39,740 629 1.6% 32.7 10,111 204 2.1% 22,037 297 1.4% 4,307 202 4.9%

2021 40,320 580 1.5% 33.1 10,172 62 0.6% 22,329 291 1.3% 4,532 225 5.2%

2022 40,834 514 1.3% 33.5 10,213 41 0.4% 22,569 241 1.1% 4,788 256 5.6%

2023 41,290 456 1.1% 33.9 10,203 (10) -0.1% 22,799 230 1.0% 5,049 261 5.5%

2024 41,705 415 1.0% 34.4 10,137 (67) -0.7% 23,051 252 1.1% 5,294 245 4.9%

2025 42,077 373 0.9% 34.8 10,023 (114) -1.1% 23,315 264 1.1% 5,523 229 4.3%

2026 42,467 390 0.9% 35.2 9,925 (98) -1.0% 23,561 245 1.1% 5,757 234 4.2%

2027 42,855 389 0.9% 35.6 9,804 (122) -1.2% 23,842 281 1.2% 5,966 209 3.6%

2028 43,244 389 0.9% 35.9 9,694 (109) -1.1% 24,126 284 1.2% 6,147 181 3.0%

2029 43,620 375 0.9% 36.1 9,629 (65) -0.7% 24,354 228 0.9% 6,319 172 2.8%

2030 43,981 361 0.8% 36.2 9,547 (82) -0.9% 24,614 260 1.1% 6,456 137 2.2%

2031 44,339 359 0.8% 36.4 9,412 (135) -1.4% 24,970 356 1.4% 6,541 84 1.3%

2032 44,726 386 0.9% 36.5 9,287 (125) -1.3% 25,316 345 1.4% 6,648 108 1.6%

2033 45,130 404 0.9% 36.6 9,207 (80) -0.9% 25,637 321 1.3% 6,754 106 1.6%

2034 45,548 418 0.9% 36.7 9,228 21 0.2% 25,861 225 0.9% 6,874 121 1.8%

2035 45,978 430 0.9% 36.7 9,243 15 0.2% 26,074 212 0.8% 7,030 156 2.3%

2036 46,418 440 1.0% 36.7 9,284 41 0.4% 26,269 196 0.7% 7,191 161 2.3%

2037 46,870 452 1.0% 36.7 9,349 65 0.7% 26,486 216 0.8% 7,326 135 1.9%

2038 47,333 462 1.0% 36.8 9,436 87 0.9% 26,719 233 0.9% 7,438 112 1.5%

2039 47,801 469 1.0% 36.9 9,540 104 1.1% 26,917 198 0.7% 7,580 143 1.9%

2040 48,274 473 1.0% 37.0 9,658 118 1.2% 27,060 143 0.5% 7,775 195 2.6%

2041 48,748 474 1.0% 37.1 9,788 130 1.3% 27,171 111 0.4% 7,999 224 2.9%

2042 49,223 474 1.0% 37.3 9,925 137 1.4% 27,252 81 0.3% 8,253 254 3.2%

2043 49,692 470 1.0% 37.5 10,062 137 1.4% 27,317 66 0.2% 8,521 269 3.3%

2044 50,155 462 0.9% 37.7 10,195 133 1.3% 27,390 73 0.3% 8,784 263 3.1%

2045 50,609 454 0.9% 37.9 10,320 125 1.2% 27,443 52 0.2% 9,070 286 3.3%

2046 51,050 441 0.9% 38.2 10,432 112 1.1% 27,498 56 0.2% 9,354 284 3.1%

2047 51,476 426 0.8% 38.4 10,528 96 0.9% 27,527 29 0.1% 9,665 311 3.3%

2048 51,893 418 0.8% 38.6 10,608 80 0.8% 27,517 (10) 0.0% 10,021 356 3.7%

2049 52,299 406 0.8% 38.8 10,670 62 0.6% 27,524 6 0.0% 10,364 343 3.4%

2050 52,695 396 0.8% 39.0 10,715 45 0.4% 27,538 14 0.1% 10,703 338 3.3%

2051 53,084 389 0.7% 39.2 10,747 32 0.3% 27,593 55 0.2% 11,002 299 2.8%

2052 53,461 378 0.7% 39.4 10,765 18 0.2% 27,667 75 0.3% 11,279 277 2.5%

2053 53,826 365 0.7% 39.6 10,770 5 0.0% 27,752 84 0.3% 11,542 263 2.3%

2054 54,179 353 0.7% 39.9 10,763 (6) -0.1% 27,840 88 0.3% 11,795 253 2.2%

2055 54,523 345 0.6% 40.1 10,750 (13) -0.1% 27,940 100 0.4% 12,031 236 2.0%

2056 54,861 338 0.6% 40.2 10,733 (17) -0.2% 28,044 105 0.4% 12,255 224 1.9%

2057 55,193 332 0.6% 40.3 10,716 (17) -0.2% 28,209 165 0.6% 12,410 155 1.3%

2058 55,521 328 0.6% 40.4 10,702 (14) -0.1% 28,410 201 0.7% 12,519 109 0.9%

2059 55,846 325 0.6% 40.4 10,694 (8) -0.1% 28,660 250 0.9% 12,569 50 0.4%

2060 56,166 320 0.6% 40.5 10,692 (1) 0.0% 28,913 253 0.9% 12,604 35 0.3%

2061 56,485 319 0.6% 40.5 10,701 9 0.1% 29,152 239 0.8% 12,643 39 0.3%

2062 56,804 318 0.6% 40.5 10,720 19 0.2% 29,353 200 0.7% 12,710 67 0.5%

2063 57,124 320 0.6% 40.5 10,751 31 0.3% 29,592 240 0.8% 12,730 19 0.2%

2064 57,446 322 0.6% 40.5 10,794 43 0.4% 29,802 210 0.7% 12,772 42 0.3%

2065 57,766 320 0.6% 40.4 10,846 52 0.5% 30,012 209 0.7% 12,805 33 0.3%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 147

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 152: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Uintah: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Uintah: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

148 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 153: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Uintah Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Uintah 726 239 487 -71 4162016 Uintah 633 239 394 -1,209 -8152017 Uintah 633 195 438 401 8392018 Uintah 632 202 430 479 9082019 Uintah 631 209 422 362 7842020 Uintah 629 216 413 216 6292021 Uintah 626 194 433 147 5802022 Uintah 625 199 426 88 5142023 Uintah 625 205 420 36 4562024 Uintah 628 211 417 -2 4152025 Uintah 632 217 416 -43 3732026 Uintah 639 223 416 -27 3902027 Uintah 648 229 419 -30 3892028 Uintah 659 236 423 -34 3892029 Uintah 670 243 427 -52 3752030 Uintah 682 250 432 -71 3612031 Uintah 694 258 436 -78 3592032 Uintah 704 265 439 -53 3862033 Uintah 713 273 440 -36 4042034 Uintah 721 281 440 -22 4182035 Uintah 727 289 438 -8 4302036 Uintah 733 298 436 5 4402037 Uintah 738 306 431 21 4522038 Uintah 740 315 425 37 4622039 Uintah 741 324 418 51 4692040 Uintah 741 332 409 65 4732041 Uintah 740 341 399 75 4742042 Uintah 737 349 388 86 4742043 Uintah 735 358 377 93 4702044 Uintah 732 366 366 96 4622045 Uintah 730 374 356 98 4542046 Uintah 728 382 346 95 4412047 Uintah 726 389 337 89 4262048 Uintah 726 397 329 88 4182049 Uintah 726 403 323 83 4062050 Uintah 728 410 318 78 3962051 Uintah 731 416 315 74 3892052 Uintah 735 422 313 65 3782053 Uintah 740 428 312 52 3652054 Uintah 746 433 312 40 3532055 Uintah 752 439 313 32 3452056 Uintah 759 444 314 24 3382057 Uintah 766 450 316 16 3322058 Uintah 773 457 317 11 3282059 Uintah 780 463 317 8 3252060 Uintah 786 470 316 4 3202061 Uintah 792 477 315 4 3192062 Uintah 798 485 313 6 3182063 Uintah 803 494 309 11 3202064 Uintah 807 503 304 18 3222065 Uintah 811 513 298 21 320

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 149

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 154: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Uintah: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Uintah: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

150 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 155: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Uintah Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 19,161 12,390 3.002016 19,507 346 1.8% 12,638 248 2.0% 2.982017 20,199 692 3.5% 12,910 272 2.2% 2.972018 20,900 701 3.5% 13,201 291 2.3% 2.952019 21,491 592 2.8% 13,484 283 2.1% 2.942020 21,965 474 2.2% 13,777 292 2.2% 2.922021 22,386 421 1.9% 14,072 295 2.1% 2.912022 22,775 389 1.7% 14,351 279 2.0% 2.892023 23,142 367 1.6% 14,602 251 1.8% 2.872024 23,488 347 1.5% 14,871 269 1.8% 2.852025 23,817 329 1.4% 15,108 238 1.6% 2.832026 24,131 314 1.3% 15,311 202 1.3% 2.812027 24,433 301 1.2% 15,544 234 1.5% 2.792028 24,722 290 1.2% 15,761 217 1.4% 2.772029 25,003 280 1.1% 15,975 215 1.4% 2.752030 25,274 271 1.1% 16,188 213 1.3% 2.742031 25,536 262 1.0% 16,414 227 1.4% 2.722032 25,789 253 1.0% 16,658 244 1.5% 2.702033 26,033 244 0.9% 16,900 242 1.5% 2.682034 26,269 236 0.9% 17,158 258 1.5% 2.672035 26,497 228 0.9% 17,394 236 1.4% 2.662036 26,718 221 0.8% 17,639 245 1.4% 2.652037 26,932 214 0.8% 17,881 242 1.4% 2.642038 27,141 209 0.8% 18,109 228 1.3% 2.632039 27,345 204 0.8% 18,350 241 1.3% 2.622040 27,545 200 0.7% 18,579 228 1.2% 2.612041 27,742 197 0.7% 18,815 237 1.3% 2.612042 27,935 193 0.7% 19,042 226 1.2% 2.602043 28,125 190 0.7% 19,263 221 1.2% 2.602044 28,312 187 0.7% 19,481 218 1.1% 2.592045 28,496 184 0.6% 19,687 206 1.1% 2.592046 28,677 181 0.6% 19,893 206 1.0% 2.582047 28,855 179 0.6% 20,104 211 1.1% 2.582048 29,033 178 0.6% 20,315 210 1.0% 2.572049 29,210 177 0.6% 20,519 204 1.0% 2.572050 29,387 177 0.6% 20,729 210 1.0% 2.562051 29,564 177 0.6% 20,935 205 1.0% 2.562052 29,742 178 0.6% 21,116 181 0.9% 2.562053 29,921 179 0.6% 21,324 208 1.0% 2.552054 30,101 180 0.6% 21,521 197 0.9% 2.542055 30,283 182 0.6% 21,720 199 0.9% 2.542056 30,466 183 0.6% 21,932 212 1.0% 2.532057 30,651 185 0.6% 22,129 197 0.9% 2.522058 30,838 187 0.6% 22,314 185 0.8% 2.522059 31,027 188 0.6% 22,507 193 0.9% 2.512060 31,216 190 0.6% 22,682 175 0.8% 2.512061 31,407 191 0.6% 22,886 205 0.9% 2.502062 31,600 192 0.6% 23,060 173 0.8% 2.502063 31,793 193 0.6% 23,259 199 0.9% 2.492064 31,986 193 0.6% 23,438 179 0.8% 2.492065 32,179 193 0.6% 23,589 151 0.6% 2.49

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 151

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 156: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

152 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 157: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Utah County

Table 1: Utah Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 585,694 25.2 144,330 339,819 41,660

2016 603,362 17,668 3.0% 25.4 148,257 3,927 2.7% 351,376 11,557 3.4% 43,572 1,912 4.6%

2017 623,706 20,344 3.4% 25.6 151,111 2,853 1.9% 363,647 12,271 3.5% 46,619 3,047 7.0%

2018 643,068 19,363 3.1% 25.8 153,920 2,810 1.9% 375,112 11,465 3.2% 50,005 3,387 7.3%

2019 661,286 18,217 2.8% 25.9 155,947 2,027 1.3% 385,853 10,741 2.9% 53,414 3,409 6.8%

2020 679,188 17,903 2.7% 25.9 157,738 1,790 1.1% 396,462 10,609 2.7% 56,747 3,333 6.2%

2021 697,248 18,059 2.7% 26.0 158,993 1,255 0.8% 407,312 10,849 2.7% 60,239 3,492 6.2%

2022 715,117 17,869 2.6% 26.2 161,361 2,368 1.5% 417,912 10,600 2.6% 63,707 3,468 5.8%

2023 732,872 17,755 2.5% 26.4 163,606 2,245 1.4% 428,603 10,692 2.6% 67,065 3,358 5.3%

2024 750,595 17,723 2.4% 26.6 165,965 2,358 1.4% 439,164 10,560 2.5% 70,320 3,255 4.9%

2025 768,346 17,750 2.4% 26.7 168,234 2,269 1.4% 449,873 10,709 2.4% 73,438 3,118 4.4%

2026 786,238 17,893 2.3% 26.9 170,597 2,363 1.4% 460,709 10,836 2.4% 76,360 2,922 4.0%

2027 804,365 18,126 2.3% 27.1 173,158 2,560 1.5% 471,522 10,813 2.3% 79,252 2,892 3.8%

2028 823,017 18,652 2.3% 27.3 175,869 2,711 1.6% 482,568 11,046 2.3% 82,191 2,939 3.7%

2029 842,118 19,102 2.3% 27.5 178,975 3,106 1.8% 493,782 11,214 2.3% 84,953 2,762 3.4%

2030 861,852 19,733 2.3% 27.6 183,088 4,113 2.3% 504,595 10,813 2.2% 87,708 2,755 3.2%

2031 882,227 20,375 2.4% 27.8 187,181 4,093 2.2% 516,049 11,453 2.3% 90,464 2,756 3.1%

2032 903,334 21,107 2.4% 28.0 191,991 4,810 2.6% 527,257 11,209 2.2% 93,461 2,998 3.3%

2033 924,828 21,494 2.4% 28.1 197,248 5,257 2.7% 538,390 11,133 2.1% 96,527 3,066 3.3%

2034 946,574 21,746 2.4% 28.3 203,025 5,777 2.9% 549,250 10,859 2.0% 99,676 3,149 3.3%

2035 968,498 21,924 2.3% 28.5 208,051 5,026 2.5% 560,804 11,554 2.1% 103,149 3,473 3.5%

2036 990,581 22,083 2.3% 28.6 213,113 5,062 2.4% 572,463 11,659 2.1% 106,737 3,588 3.5%

2037 1,012,812 22,231 2.2% 28.8 218,298 5,184 2.4% 584,385 11,922 2.1% 110,239 3,502 3.3%

2038 1,035,133 22,321 2.2% 28.9 223,561 5,263 2.4% 596,466 12,081 2.1% 113,755 3,516 3.2%

2039 1,057,553 22,420 2.2% 29.1 228,879 5,318 2.4% 608,644 12,178 2.0% 117,364 3,609 3.2%

2040 1,080,082 22,529 2.1% 29.2 234,190 5,311 2.3% 620,688 12,044 2.0% 121,337 3,973 3.4%

2041 1,102,643 22,561 2.1% 29.3 239,415 5,224 2.2% 632,611 11,923 1.9% 125,642 4,306 3.5%

2042 1,125,227 22,584 2.0% 29.4 244,485 5,071 2.1% 644,604 11,992 1.9% 130,100 4,457 3.5%

2043 1,148,071 22,844 2.0% 29.5 249,390 4,905 2.0% 656,966 12,363 1.9% 134,582 4,482 3.4%

2044 1,170,413 22,343 1.9% 29.6 253,913 4,522 1.8% 669,272 12,306 1.9% 139,013 4,432 3.3%

2045 1,192,304 21,890 1.9% 29.7 258,043 4,130 1.6% 681,524 12,252 1.8% 143,424 4,411 3.2%

2046 1,213,809 21,505 1.8% 29.7 261,794 3,751 1.5% 693,858 12,333 1.8% 147,699 4,276 3.0%

2047 1,235,008 21,199 1.7% 29.8 265,201 3,407 1.3% 706,257 12,399 1.8% 151,886 4,186 2.8%

2048 1,255,983 20,974 1.7% 29.9 268,305 3,104 1.2% 718,657 12,400 1.8% 156,085 4,199 2.8%

2049 1,276,789 20,807 1.7% 30.1 271,155 2,850 1.1% 731,460 12,803 1.8% 159,896 3,812 2.4%

2050 1,297,515 20,726 1.6% 30.2 273,793 2,638 1.0% 743,921 12,461 1.7% 164,098 4,202 2.6%

2051 1,317,014 19,499 1.5% 30.3 275,993 2,200 0.8% 755,359 11,437 1.5% 168,568 4,470 2.7%

2052 1,336,690 19,676 1.5% 30.4 278,143 2,151 0.8% 767,075 11,716 1.6% 172,890 4,322 2.6%

2053 1,356,562 19,872 1.5% 30.5 280,298 2,155 0.8% 779,002 11,927 1.6% 177,094 4,204 2.4%

2054 1,376,638 20,076 1.5% 30.6 282,514 2,216 0.8% 791,254 12,252 1.6% 181,028 3,934 2.2%

2055 1,396,997 20,359 1.5% 30.7 284,870 2,356 0.8% 802,950 11,696 1.5% 185,582 4,553 2.5%

2056 1,417,721 20,724 1.5% 30.8 287,436 2,567 0.9% 813,316 10,365 1.3% 191,549 5,967 3.2%

2057 1,438,815 21,094 1.5% 30.9 290,255 2,819 1.0% 825,375 12,059 1.5% 195,881 4,332 2.3%

2058 1,460,298 21,483 1.5% 31.0 293,354 3,099 1.1% 837,902 12,527 1.5% 199,815 3,934 2.0%

2059 1,482,175 21,877 1.5% 31.2 296,750 3,396 1.2% 850,596 12,694 1.5% 203,659 3,844 1.9%

2060 1,504,433 22,258 1.5% 31.3 300,442 3,692 1.2% 863,198 12,602 1.5% 207,678 4,019 2.0%

2061 1,527,044 22,611 1.5% 31.4 304,413 3,971 1.3% 874,962 11,764 1.4% 212,630 4,952 2.4%

2062 1,549,985 22,941 1.5% 31.5 308,644 4,230 1.4% 885,957 10,996 1.3% 218,457 5,827 2.7%

2063 1,573,209 23,225 1.5% 31.6 313,110 4,466 1.4% 897,185 11,227 1.3% 224,155 5,698 2.6%

2064 1,596,655 23,446 1.5% 31.8 317,771 4,661 1.5% 908,256 11,072 1.2% 230,108 5,952 2.7%

2065 1,620,246 23,591 1.5% 31.9 322,583 4,811 1.5% 919,069 10,813 1.2% 236,402 6,294 2.7%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 153

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 158: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Utah: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Utah: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

154 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 159: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Utah Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Utah 11,908 2,409 9,499 8,987 18,4862016 Utah 12,001 2,450 9,551 8,117 17,6682017 Utah 13,413 2,546 10,867 9,476 20,3442018 Utah 13,772 2,689 11,083 8,280 19,3632019 Utah 14,099 2,836 11,263 6,954 18,2172020 Utah 14,414 2,981 11,433 6,470 17,9032021 Utah 14,736 2,723 12,013 6,046 18,0592022 Utah 15,079 2,839 12,240 5,629 17,8692023 Utah 15,440 2,952 12,488 5,267 17,7552024 Utah 15,814 3,064 12,750 4,973 17,7232025 Utah 16,212 3,175 13,037 4,713 17,7502026 Utah 16,608 3,286 13,322 4,571 17,8932027 Utah 17,020 3,395 13,625 4,502 18,1262028 Utah 17,425 3,508 13,918 4,734 18,6522029 Utah 17,828 3,624 14,203 4,898 19,1022030 Utah 18,230 3,745 14,485 5,249 19,7332031 Utah 18,620 3,871 14,749 5,626 20,3752032 Utah 19,009 4,001 15,008 6,100 21,1072033 Utah 19,386 4,137 15,248 6,245 21,4942034 Utah 19,740 4,277 15,464 6,283 21,7462035 Utah 20,062 4,419 15,643 6,281 21,9242036 Utah 20,361 4,565 15,796 6,287 22,0832037 Utah 20,625 4,713 15,912 6,319 22,2312038 Utah 20,858 4,862 15,996 6,325 22,3212039 Utah 21,074 5,013 16,061 6,359 22,4202040 Utah 21,287 5,165 16,122 6,407 22,5292041 Utah 21,501 5,318 16,183 6,377 22,5612042 Utah 21,729 5,472 16,257 6,327 22,5842043 Utah 21,976 5,626 16,350 6,494 22,8442044 Utah 22,250 5,780 16,469 5,874 22,3432045 Utah 22,526 5,933 16,594 5,297 21,8902046 Utah 22,816 6,083 16,733 4,772 21,5052047 Utah 23,119 6,233 16,887 4,313 21,1992048 Utah 23,429 6,382 17,048 3,927 20,9742049 Utah 23,756 6,529 17,227 3,580 20,8072050 Utah 24,098 6,675 17,422 3,304 20,7262051 Utah 24,455 6,821 17,634 1,865 19,4992052 Utah 24,798 6,966 17,832 1,844 19,6762053 Utah 25,159 7,113 18,046 1,826 19,8722054 Utah 25,532 7,260 18,272 1,804 20,0762055 Utah 25,914 7,409 18,505 1,854 20,3592056 Utah 26,302 7,559 18,743 1,981 20,7242057 Utah 26,692 7,713 18,979 2,115 21,0942058 Utah 27,081 7,871 19,210 2,273 21,4832059 Utah 27,466 8,034 19,432 2,445 21,8772060 Utah 27,843 8,202 19,642 2,616 22,2582061 Utah 28,208 8,374 19,834 2,777 22,6112062 Utah 28,558 8,552 20,007 2,934 22,9412063 Utah 28,892 8,734 20,158 3,067 23,2252064 Utah 29,208 8,922 20,286 3,160 23,4462065 Utah 29,504 9,113 20,391 3,199 23,591

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 155

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 160: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Utah: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Utah: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

156 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 161: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 311,650 164,270 3.472016 327,455 15,805 5.1% 170,273 6,003 3.7% 3.452017 341,957 14,502 4.4% 177,092 6,819 4.0% 3.432018 354,351 12,394 3.6% 183,762 6,670 3.8% 3.412019 365,174 10,823 3.1% 190,124 6,361 3.5% 3.392020 375,334 10,160 2.8% 196,358 6,235 3.3% 3.372021 385,072 9,738 2.6% 202,789 6,431 3.3% 3.352022 394,590 9,518 2.5% 209,220 6,431 3.2% 3.342023 404,039 9,449 2.4% 215,663 6,443 3.1% 3.322024 413,508 9,468 2.3% 222,139 6,477 3.0% 3.302025 423,013 9,506 2.3% 228,671 6,531 2.9% 3.282026 432,494 9,481 2.2% 235,321 6,650 2.9% 3.262027 441,918 9,424 2.2% 242,027 6,706 2.8% 3.252028 451,336 9,418 2.1% 248,858 6,831 2.8% 3.232029 460,795 9,459 2.1% 255,848 6,991 2.8% 3.222030 470,334 9,539 2.1% 262,964 7,115 2.8% 3.212031 479,986 9,652 2.1% 270,340 7,377 2.8% 3.192032 489,775 9,789 2.0% 278,054 7,714 2.9% 3.182033 499,715 9,940 2.0% 285,804 7,750 2.8% 3.172034 509,810 10,094 2.0% 293,667 7,863 2.8% 3.162035 520,050 10,240 2.0% 301,558 7,891 2.7% 3.142036 530,415 10,365 2.0% 309,359 7,801 2.6% 3.142037 540,894 10,479 2.0% 317,208 7,849 2.5% 3.132038 551,500 10,605 2.0% 324,976 7,768 2.4% 3.122039 562,240 10,741 1.9% 332,869 7,892 2.4% 3.112040 573,124 10,884 1.9% 340,742 7,874 2.4% 3.112041 584,157 11,033 1.9% 348,622 7,879 2.3% 3.102042 595,343 11,185 1.9% 356,481 7,860 2.3% 3.092043 606,681 11,338 1.9% 364,486 8,005 2.2% 3.092044 618,171 11,490 1.9% 372,461 7,975 2.2% 3.082045 629,808 11,637 1.9% 380,404 7,943 2.1% 3.072046 641,584 11,776 1.9% 388,221 7,818 2.1% 3.062047 653,492 11,909 1.9% 396,031 7,809 2.0% 3.062048 665,531 12,039 1.8% 403,813 7,782 2.0% 3.052049 677,699 12,167 1.8% 411,698 7,885 2.0% 3.042050 689,992 12,293 1.8% 419,678 7,980 1.9% 3.032051 702,409 12,417 1.8% 427,247 7,569 1.8% 3.022052 714,947 12,538 1.8% 434,987 7,740 1.8% 3.012053 727,605 12,657 1.8% 442,869 7,882 1.8% 3.002054 740,378 12,774 1.8% 451,004 8,135 1.8% 2.992055 753,266 12,888 1.7% 459,411 8,407 1.9% 2.982056 766,265 12,999 1.7% 467,706 8,295 1.8% 2.972057 779,373 13,108 1.7% 475,974 8,268 1.8% 2.962058 792,588 13,215 1.7% 484,495 8,522 1.8% 2.952059 805,908 13,320 1.7% 493,252 8,756 1.8% 2.952060 819,330 13,422 1.7% 502,059 8,808 1.8% 2.942061 832,851 13,522 1.7% 510,968 8,909 1.8% 2.932062 846,471 13,619 1.6% 519,872 8,904 1.7% 2.922063 860,186 13,715 1.6% 528,716 8,845 1.7% 2.922064 873,995 13,809 1.6% 537,581 8,864 1.7% 2.912065 887,896 13,901 1.6% 546,481 8,901 1.7% 2.91

Total Employment Total HouseholdsTable 3: Utah Employment and Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 157

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 162: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

158 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 163: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Wasatch County

Table 1: Wasatch Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 28,613 33.7 7,057 16,520 2,848

2016 29,995 1,382 4.8% 34.1 7,276 220 3.1% 17,352 832 5.0% 3,094 245 8.6%

2017 31,470 1,475 4.9% 34.4 7,504 227 3.1% 18,253 902 5.2% 3,352 259 8.4%

2018 32,931 1,460 4.6% 34.8 7,732 229 3.0% 19,116 862 4.7% 3,654 302 9.0%

2019 34,348 1,417 4.3% 35.2 7,917 185 2.4% 20,023 907 4.7% 3,920 266 7.3%

2020 35,713 1,364 4.0% 35.5 8,115 198 2.5% 20,902 879 4.4% 4,189 269 6.9%

2021 37,061 1,349 3.8% 35.9 8,240 124 1.5% 21,746 844 4.0% 4,516 327 7.8%

2022 38,364 1,302 3.5% 36.2 8,297 58 0.7% 22,574 827 3.8% 4,858 341 7.6%

2023 39,625 1,262 3.3% 36.5 8,347 49 0.6% 23,378 805 3.6% 5,183 325 6.7%

2024 40,845 1,220 3.1% 36.8 8,372 25 0.3% 24,184 806 3.4% 5,483 300 5.8%

2025 42,027 1,183 2.9% 37.1 8,381 9 0.1% 24,953 769 3.2% 5,795 312 5.7%

2026 43,237 1,209 2.9% 37.3 8,378 (4) 0.0% 25,763 810 3.2% 6,096 301 5.2%

2027 44,452 1,215 2.8% 37.5 8,392 15 0.2% 26,553 789 3.1% 6,398 302 5.0%

2028 45,683 1,231 2.8% 37.7 8,452 60 0.7% 27,321 768 2.9% 6,688 290 4.5%

2029 46,924 1,241 2.7% 37.9 8,589 137 1.6% 28,037 717 2.6% 6,962 274 4.1%

2030 48,168 1,244 2.7% 38.0 8,765 176 2.0% 28,740 703 2.5% 7,213 251 3.6%

2031 49,398 1,230 2.6% 38.2 8,933 168 1.9% 29,427 687 2.4% 7,477 264 3.7%

2032 50,619 1,221 2.5% 38.3 9,101 168 1.9% 30,102 674 2.3% 7,749 272 3.6%

2033 51,834 1,215 2.4% 38.4 9,239 139 1.5% 30,790 689 2.3% 8,036 287 3.7%

2034 53,036 1,202 2.3% 38.6 9,411 171 1.9% 31,432 642 2.1% 8,333 297 3.7%

2035 54,218 1,181 2.2% 38.8 9,616 206 2.2% 32,017 584 1.9% 8,648 314 3.8%

2036 55,375 1,157 2.1% 39.0 9,842 226 2.3% 32,527 510 1.6% 9,007 359 4.1%

2037 56,506 1,131 2.0% 39.1 10,077 235 2.4% 33,001 474 1.5% 9,380 373 4.1%

2038 57,602 1,096 1.9% 39.3 10,312 235 2.3% 33,449 448 1.4% 9,757 377 4.0%

2039 58,655 1,053 1.8% 39.5 10,542 230 2.2% 33,869 420 1.3% 10,137 380 3.9%

2040 59,665 1,010 1.7% 39.8 10,763 221 2.1% 34,248 378 1.1% 10,539 401 4.0%

2041 60,666 1,001 1.7% 40.0 10,977 215 2.0% 34,588 340 1.0% 10,983 445 4.2%

2042 61,657 991 1.6% 40.3 11,182 205 1.9% 34,903 315 0.9% 11,459 475 4.3%

2043 62,633 976 1.6% 40.6 11,374 191 1.7% 35,199 297 0.8% 11,955 497 4.3%

2044 63,590 958 1.5% 40.8 11,548 175 1.5% 35,515 316 0.9% 12,434 479 4.0%

2045 64,526 936 1.5% 41.2 11,702 153 1.3% 35,870 355 1.0% 12,875 440 3.5%

2046 65,439 913 1.4% 41.5 11,832 130 1.1% 36,276 406 1.1% 13,263 388 3.0%

2047 66,331 892 1.4% 41.8 11,937 106 0.9% 36,684 409 1.1% 13,648 386 2.9%

2048 67,204 872 1.3% 42.1 12,018 81 0.7% 37,080 396 1.1% 14,047 399 2.9%

2049 68,061 857 1.3% 42.4 12,075 57 0.5% 37,493 413 1.1% 14,429 382 2.7%

2050 68,904 843 1.2% 42.7 12,112 36 0.3% 37,931 438 1.2% 14,785 356 2.5%

2051 69,741 837 1.2% 43.0 12,132 20 0.2% 38,381 450 1.2% 15,129 344 2.3%

2052 70,572 831 1.2% 43.3 12,139 7 0.1% 38,838 457 1.2% 15,465 336 2.2%

2053 71,397 825 1.2% 43.6 12,137 (2) 0.0% 39,317 480 1.2% 15,772 307 2.0%

2054 72,219 822 1.2% 43.8 12,132 (6) 0.0% 39,815 497 1.3% 16,054 282 1.8%

2055 73,042 824 1.1% 44.0 12,126 (5) 0.0% 40,296 481 1.2% 16,346 292 1.8%

2056 73,872 830 1.1% 44.0 12,126 (1) 0.0% 40,745 449 1.1% 16,664 318 1.9%

2057 74,715 842 1.1% 44.1 12,135 10 0.1% 41,225 480 1.2% 16,948 284 1.7%

2058 75,571 857 1.1% 44.2 12,159 24 0.2% 41,727 502 1.2% 17,206 258 1.5%

2059 76,445 873 1.2% 44.3 12,200 41 0.3% 42,236 509 1.2% 17,453 247 1.4%

2060 77,333 888 1.2% 44.4 12,259 60 0.5% 42,726 490 1.2% 17,715 262 1.5%

2061 78,237 904 1.2% 44.4 12,340 80 0.7% 43,183 456 1.1% 18,005 290 1.6%

2062 79,156 920 1.2% 44.4 12,442 102 0.8% 43,591 408 0.9% 18,340 335 1.9%

2063 80,094 938 1.2% 44.4 12,565 124 1.0% 43,996 405 0.9% 18,677 337 1.8%

2064 81,050 955 1.2% 44.4 12,710 145 1.2% 44,399 403 0.9% 19,016 339 1.8%

2065 82,018 969 1.2% 44.3 12,874 163 1.3% 44,792 393 0.9% 19,366 350 1.8%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 159

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 164: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Wasatch: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Wasatch: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

160 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 165: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Wasatch Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Wasatch 472 123 349 922 1,2712016 Wasatch 441 143 298 1,084 1,3822017 Wasatch 440 159 281 1,194 1,4752018 Wasatch 456 171 286 1,175 1,4602019 Wasatch 474 183 291 1,126 1,4172020 Wasatch 492 196 297 1,068 1,3642021 Wasatch 511 180 331 1,018 1,3492022 Wasatch 531 191 340 962 1,3022023 Wasatch 552 201 351 911 1,2622024 Wasatch 574 211 362 857 1,2202025 Wasatch 596 222 374 808 1,1832026 Wasatch 619 232 387 823 1,2092027 Wasatch 643 243 401 814 1,2152028 Wasatch 668 253 414 817 1,2312029 Wasatch 692 264 427 814 1,2412030 Wasatch 715 276 439 804 1,2442031 Wasatch 737 288 450 781 1,2302032 Wasatch 756 300 456 764 1,2212033 Wasatch 774 313 461 754 1,2152034 Wasatch 788 326 463 740 1,2022035 Wasatch 800 339 461 720 1,1812036 Wasatch 808 352 456 702 1,1572037 Wasatch 814 366 448 683 1,1312038 Wasatch 818 380 438 657 1,0962039 Wasatch 819 394 425 627 1,0532040 Wasatch 819 408 410 600 1,0102041 Wasatch 816 422 394 607 1,0012042 Wasatch 813 437 377 614 9912043 Wasatch 810 451 359 616 9762044 Wasatch 807 465 342 616 9582045 Wasatch 805 479 326 610 9362046 Wasatch 805 494 311 602 9132047 Wasatch 806 508 298 594 8922048 Wasatch 808 522 286 586 8722049 Wasatch 813 536 277 580 8572050 Wasatch 819 550 269 574 8432051 Wasatch 827 564 263 573 8372052 Wasatch 837 578 259 572 8312053 Wasatch 849 592 257 568 8252054 Wasatch 862 606 256 566 8222055 Wasatch 876 620 256 568 8242056 Wasatch 891 634 257 573 8302057 Wasatch 906 648 258 585 8422058 Wasatch 922 663 259 598 8572059 Wasatch 937 678 260 613 8732060 Wasatch 953 693 260 628 8882061 Wasatch 967 708 259 644 9042062 Wasatch 980 723 257 663 9202063 Wasatch 993 739 254 684 9382064 Wasatch 1,004 755 249 706 9552065 Wasatch 1,014 771 243 725 969

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 161

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 166: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Wasatch: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Wasatch: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

162 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 167: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 14,111 9,329 3.042016 14,633 522 3.7% 9,869 540 5.8% 3.012017 15,100 467 3.2% 10,444 574 5.8% 2.982018 15,521 421 2.8% 11,022 579 5.5% 2.962019 15,919 398 2.6% 11,601 578 5.2% 2.932020 16,292 374 2.3% 12,171 570 4.9% 2.912021 16,644 352 2.2% 12,748 577 4.7% 2.882022 16,983 339 2.0% 13,308 560 4.4% 2.852023 17,313 330 1.9% 13,855 547 4.1% 2.832024 17,638 324 1.9% 14,397 542 3.9% 2.812025 17,957 320 1.8% 14,934 537 3.7% 2.792026 18,274 317 1.8% 15,477 543 3.6% 2.772027 18,590 315 1.7% 16,023 546 3.5% 2.752028 18,903 314 1.7% 16,563 540 3.4% 2.732029 19,216 312 1.7% 17,109 546 3.3% 2.722030 19,527 311 1.6% 17,655 546 3.2% 2.702031 19,837 310 1.6% 18,196 541 3.1% 2.692032 20,144 307 1.5% 18,725 529 2.9% 2.682033 20,448 305 1.5% 19,270 545 2.9% 2.662034 20,750 302 1.5% 19,804 534 2.8% 2.652035 21,049 299 1.4% 20,301 497 2.5% 2.652036 21,346 297 1.4% 20,790 490 2.4% 2.642037 21,641 295 1.4% 21,282 492 2.4% 2.632038 21,934 293 1.4% 21,757 475 2.2% 2.622039 22,225 292 1.3% 22,216 459 2.1% 2.612040 22,517 291 1.3% 22,646 430 1.9% 2.612041 22,808 291 1.3% 23,098 452 2.0% 2.602042 23,098 291 1.3% 23,559 461 2.0% 2.592043 23,389 291 1.3% 24,010 451 1.9% 2.582044 23,681 291 1.2% 24,470 460 1.9% 2.572045 23,972 292 1.2% 24,921 451 1.8% 2.562046 24,264 292 1.2% 25,372 451 1.8% 2.552047 24,557 293 1.2% 25,810 438 1.7% 2.542048 24,850 293 1.2% 26,240 430 1.7% 2.532049 25,144 294 1.2% 26,673 433 1.6% 2.522050 25,439 295 1.2% 27,092 419 1.6% 2.522051 25,735 296 1.2% 27,506 414 1.5% 2.512052 26,032 297 1.2% 27,910 404 1.5% 2.502053 26,330 298 1.1% 28,300 390 1.4% 2.492054 26,629 299 1.1% 28,683 383 1.4% 2.492055 26,929 300 1.1% 29,077 393 1.4% 2.482056 27,231 301 1.1% 29,457 380 1.3% 2.482057 27,533 302 1.1% 29,843 386 1.3% 2.472058 27,836 303 1.1% 30,231 388 1.3% 2.472059 28,140 304 1.1% 30,641 409 1.4% 2.472060 28,444 304 1.1% 31,060 419 1.4% 2.462061 28,749 305 1.1% 31,457 397 1.3% 2.462062 29,054 305 1.1% 31,850 393 1.2% 2.462063 29,359 305 1.0% 32,254 404 1.3% 2.452064 29,663 304 1.0% 32,678 424 1.3% 2.452065 29,967 303 1.0% 33,104 427 1.3% 2.45

Total Employment Total HouseholdsTable 3: Wasatch Employment and Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 163

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 168: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

164 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 169: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Washington County

Table 1: Washington Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 154,602 35.7 31,725 81,423 31,039

2016 160,359 5,757 3.7% 36.4 32,278 552 1.7% 84,710 3,287 4.0% 33,012 1,973 6.4%

2017 166,534 6,174 3.9% 36.8 32,534 256 0.8% 87,916 3,206 3.8% 35,114 2,101 6.4%

2018 173,226 6,693 4.0% 37.4 32,828 294 0.9% 91,289 3,372 3.8% 37,482 2,369 6.7%

2019 179,953 6,726 3.9% 37.8 33,234 406 1.2% 94,741 3,452 3.8% 39,736 2,254 6.0%

2020 186,618 6,665 3.7% 38.2 33,517 284 0.9% 98,301 3,560 3.8% 41,885 2,149 5.4%

2021 193,437 6,819 3.7% 38.6 33,598 81 0.2% 102,022 3,720 3.8% 44,069 2,184 5.2%

2022 200,091 6,654 3.4% 38.9 34,057 459 1.4% 105,814 3,792 3.7% 46,045 1,976 4.5%

2023 206,551 6,459 3.2% 39.2 34,528 471 1.4% 109,548 3,734 3.5% 47,886 1,841 4.0%

2024 212,851 6,300 3.1% 39.4 34,975 446 1.3% 113,278 3,731 3.4% 49,593 1,707 3.6%

2025 219,019 6,168 2.9% 39.6 35,392 417 1.2% 116,959 3,681 3.2% 51,237 1,644 3.3%

2026 225,301 6,282 2.9% 39.7 35,924 532 1.5% 120,832 3,873 3.3% 52,650 1,413 2.8%

2027 231,647 6,345 2.8% 39.8 36,611 687 1.9% 124,684 3,852 3.2% 53,981 1,330 2.5%

2028 238,162 6,515 2.8% 39.9 37,512 901 2.5% 128,449 3,765 3.0% 55,339 1,358 2.5%

2029 244,834 6,673 2.8% 40.0 38,559 1,047 2.8% 132,227 3,778 2.9% 56,688 1,349 2.4%

2030 251,636 6,801 2.8% 40.1 39,895 1,336 3.5% 135,892 3,664 2.8% 57,993 1,305 2.3%

2031 258,560 6,924 2.8% 40.3 41,334 1,439 3.6% 139,638 3,747 2.8% 59,249 1,256 2.2%

2032 265,659 7,099 2.7% 40.4 42,780 1,446 3.5% 143,502 3,863 2.8% 60,571 1,322 2.2%

2033 272,757 7,098 2.7% 40.6 44,277 1,497 3.5% 147,249 3,747 2.6% 61,992 1,420 2.3%

2034 279,798 7,042 2.6% 40.7 45,931 1,654 3.7% 150,750 3,501 2.4% 63,496 1,504 2.4%

2035 286,768 6,970 2.5% 40.8 47,238 1,307 2.8% 154,514 3,764 2.5% 65,065 1,569 2.5%

2036 293,688 6,919 2.4% 41.0 48,446 1,208 2.6% 158,307 3,793 2.5% 66,701 1,636 2.5%

2037 300,557 6,869 2.3% 41.2 49,623 1,177 2.4% 162,135 3,828 2.4% 68,336 1,635 2.5%

2038 307,369 6,812 2.3% 41.4 50,773 1,149 2.3% 166,017 3,881 2.4% 69,936 1,599 2.3%

2039 314,159 6,790 2.2% 41.6 51,889 1,117 2.2% 169,899 3,883 2.3% 71,575 1,639 2.3%

2040 320,956 6,797 2.2% 41.9 52,964 1,075 2.1% 173,726 3,827 2.3% 73,332 1,757 2.5%

2041 327,790 6,834 2.1% 42.1 53,989 1,025 1.9% 177,484 3,759 2.2% 75,239 1,907 2.6%

2042 334,667 6,877 2.1% 42.4 54,951 962 1.8% 181,145 3,660 2.1% 77,328 2,089 2.8%

2043 341,580 6,913 2.1% 42.6 55,840 889 1.6% 184,716 3,571 2.0% 79,581 2,253 2.9%

2044 348,541 6,961 2.0% 42.9 56,660 820 1.5% 188,218 3,501 1.9% 81,978 2,397 3.0%

2045 355,549 7,008 2.0% 43.2 57,414 754 1.3% 191,555 3,338 1.8% 84,604 2,626 3.2%

2046 362,607 7,058 2.0% 43.4 58,113 699 1.2% 194,799 3,243 1.7% 87,381 2,777 3.3%

2047 369,716 7,110 2.0% 43.7 58,767 655 1.1% 198,022 3,223 1.7% 90,229 2,848 3.3%

2048 376,891 7,175 1.9% 43.9 59,391 624 1.1% 201,322 3,300 1.7% 93,054 2,825 3.1%

2049 384,140 7,249 1.9% 44.2 60,000 609 1.0% 204,819 3,498 1.7% 95,732 2,678 2.9%

2050 391,468 7,328 1.9% 44.4 60,612 611 1.0% 208,395 3,576 1.7% 98,376 2,644 2.8%

2051 398,894 7,426 1.9% 44.6 61,251 639 1.1% 211,921 3,525 1.7% 101,113 2,737 2.8%

2052 406,402 7,508 1.9% 44.8 61,931 680 1.1% 215,416 3,495 1.6% 103,898 2,785 2.8%

2053 413,976 7,574 1.9% 45.0 62,670 739 1.2% 218,971 3,555 1.7% 106,611 2,713 2.6%

2054 421,604 7,628 1.8% 45.1 63,484 813 1.3% 222,581 3,610 1.6% 109,236 2,625 2.5%

2055 429,295 7,691 1.8% 45.1 64,385 902 1.4% 226,056 3,475 1.6% 111,963 2,727 2.5%

2056 437,059 7,764 1.8% 45.2 65,385 1,000 1.6% 229,323 3,267 1.4% 114,866 2,903 2.6%

2057 444,902 7,844 1.8% 45.1 66,488 1,104 1.7% 232,644 3,321 1.4% 117,691 2,825 2.5%

2058 452,821 7,919 1.8% 45.0 67,693 1,205 1.8% 236,068 3,424 1.5% 120,389 2,699 2.3%

2059 460,804 7,982 1.8% 44.8 68,989 1,297 1.9% 239,628 3,560 1.5% 122,933 2,543 2.1%

2060 468,830 8,026 1.7% 44.6 70,366 1,377 2.0% 243,332 3,705 1.5% 125,309 2,376 1.9%

2061 476,889 8,059 1.7% 44.5 71,810 1,443 2.1% 246,990 3,658 1.5% 127,718 2,409 1.9%

2062 484,960 8,071 1.7% 44.4 73,305 1,495 2.1% 250,451 3,461 1.4% 130,308 2,590 2.0%

2063 493,018 8,058 1.7% 44.3 74,837 1,533 2.1% 253,813 3,363 1.3% 132,971 2,664 2.0%

2064 501,026 8,008 1.6% 44.3 76,389 1,552 2.1% 257,106 3,293 1.3% 135,663 2,692 2.0%

2065 508,952 7,926 1.6% 44.3 77,944 1,555 2.0% 260,293 3,187 1.2% 138,403 2,740 2.0%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 165

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 170: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Washington: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Washington: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

166 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 171: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Washington Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Washington 2,228 1,205 1,023 3,079 4,1022016 Washington 2,132 1,274 858 4,899 5,7572017 Washington 2,632 1,720 912 5,262 6,1742018 Washington 2,711 1,834 877 5,816 6,6932019 Washington 2,794 1,959 835 5,891 6,7262020 Washington 2,878 2,079 799 5,865 6,6652021 Washington 2,966 1,917 1,049 5,771 6,8192022 Washington 3,056 2,013 1,043 5,611 6,6542023 Washington 3,148 2,102 1,046 5,413 6,4592024 Washington 3,244 2,184 1,060 5,241 6,3002025 Washington 3,341 2,261 1,081 5,087 6,1682026 Washington 3,441 2,332 1,108 5,174 6,2822027 Washington 3,546 2,396 1,150 5,196 6,3452028 Washington 3,649 2,459 1,190 5,325 6,5152029 Washington 3,751 2,524 1,228 5,445 6,6732030 Washington 3,851 2,589 1,262 5,539 6,8012031 Washington 3,943 2,655 1,288 5,637 6,9242032 Washington 4,025 2,723 1,302 5,797 7,0992033 Washington 4,098 2,795 1,304 5,794 7,0982034 Washington 4,159 2,867 1,292 5,750 7,0422035 Washington 4,206 2,939 1,267 5,703 6,9702036 Washington 4,243 3,011 1,232 5,687 6,9192037 Washington 4,272 3,084 1,189 5,681 6,8692038 Washington 4,298 3,156 1,141 5,671 6,8122039 Washington 4,324 3,229 1,095 5,695 6,7902040 Washington 4,355 3,302 1,053 5,743 6,7972041 Washington 4,394 3,375 1,019 5,815 6,8342042 Washington 4,442 3,449 993 5,884 6,8772043 Washington 4,500 3,524 976 5,937 6,9132044 Washington 4,568 3,600 968 5,993 6,9612045 Washington 4,644 3,675 969 6,038 7,0082046 Washington 4,730 3,750 980 6,077 7,0582047 Washington 4,822 3,824 999 6,111 7,1102048 Washington 4,922 3,899 1,023 6,152 7,1752049 Washington 5,026 3,974 1,052 6,197 7,2492050 Washington 5,135 4,048 1,087 6,241 7,3282051 Washington 5,248 4,123 1,125 6,301 7,4262052 Washington 5,365 4,198 1,166 6,342 7,5082053 Washington 5,483 4,275 1,208 6,367 7,5742054 Washington 5,603 4,354 1,248 6,379 7,6282055 Washington 5,722 4,434 1,287 6,403 7,6912056 Washington 5,839 4,516 1,323 6,440 7,7642057 Washington 5,955 4,600 1,355 6,489 7,8442058 Washington 6,069 4,687 1,381 6,538 7,9192059 Washington 6,178 4,778 1,399 6,583 7,9822060 Washington 6,282 4,873 1,409 6,617 8,0262061 Washington 6,381 4,971 1,410 6,649 8,0592062 Washington 6,475 5,073 1,401 6,670 8,0712063 Washington 6,563 5,179 1,383 6,675 8,0582064 Washington 6,646 5,290 1,356 6,652 8,0082065 Washington 6,725 5,404 1,321 6,605 7,926

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 167

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 172: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Washington: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Washington: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

168 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 173: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Washington Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 85,410 55,377 2.752016 90,607 5,197 6.1% 58,062 2,685 4.8% 2.722017 94,442 3,835 4.2% 60,796 2,734 4.7% 2.702018 98,225 3,783 4.0% 63,742 2,947 4.8% 2.682019 101,955 3,730 3.8% 66,679 2,936 4.6% 2.662020 105,632 3,677 3.6% 69,547 2,868 4.3% 2.652021 109,256 3,624 3.4% 72,521 2,974 4.3% 2.632022 112,828 3,571 3.3% 75,435 2,914 4.0% 2.622023 116,346 3,519 3.1% 78,243 2,807 3.7% 2.602024 119,812 3,466 3.0% 80,956 2,713 3.5% 2.592025 123,225 3,413 2.8% 83,595 2,639 3.3% 2.592026 126,585 3,360 2.7% 86,191 2,596 3.1% 2.582027 129,892 3,307 2.6% 88,783 2,592 3.0% 2.582028 133,147 3,254 2.5% 91,469 2,686 3.0% 2.572029 136,348 3,201 2.4% 94,191 2,722 3.0% 2.572030 139,496 3,148 2.3% 96,972 2,782 3.0% 2.562031 142,592 3,095 2.2% 99,776 2,804 2.9% 2.562032 145,634 3,043 2.1% 102,676 2,900 2.9% 2.552033 148,624 2,990 2.1% 105,623 2,947 2.9% 2.552034 151,561 2,937 2.0% 108,563 2,940 2.8% 2.542035 154,444 2,884 1.9% 111,434 2,871 2.6% 2.542036 157,275 2,831 1.8% 114,291 2,857 2.6% 2.542037 160,052 2,778 1.8% 117,086 2,795 2.4% 2.532038 162,777 2,724 1.7% 119,862 2,776 2.4% 2.532039 165,448 2,671 1.6% 122,655 2,792 2.3% 2.532040 168,066 2,618 1.6% 125,452 2,797 2.3% 2.532041 170,632 2,565 1.5% 128,262 2,810 2.2% 2.522042 173,144 2,512 1.5% 131,105 2,843 2.2% 2.522043 175,603 2,459 1.4% 133,973 2,868 2.2% 2.522044 178,009 2,406 1.4% 136,911 2,937 2.2% 2.512045 180,362 2,353 1.3% 139,895 2,984 2.2% 2.512046 182,661 2,300 1.3% 142,891 2,996 2.1% 2.502047 184,908 2,247 1.2% 145,900 3,009 2.1% 2.502048 187,101 2,193 1.2% 148,942 3,042 2.1% 2.502049 189,242 2,140 1.1% 152,054 3,113 2.1% 2.492050 191,329 2,087 1.1% 155,260 3,206 2.1% 2.492051 193,363 2,034 1.1% 158,505 3,245 2.1% 2.482052 195,343 1,981 1.0% 161,740 3,235 2.0% 2.482053 197,271 1,927 1.0% 164,987 3,247 2.0% 2.482054 199,145 1,874 1.0% 168,278 3,291 2.0% 2.472055 200,966 1,821 0.9% 171,615 3,336 2.0% 2.472056 202,734 1,768 0.9% 174,941 3,326 1.9% 2.472057 204,448 1,715 0.8% 178,251 3,310 1.9% 2.462058 206,110 1,661 0.8% 181,569 3,318 1.9% 2.462059 207,718 1,608 0.8% 184,905 3,337 1.8% 2.462060 209,272 1,555 0.7% 188,271 3,366 1.8% 2.462061 210,774 1,501 0.7% 191,690 3,419 1.8% 2.462062 212,222 1,448 0.7% 195,096 3,405 1.8% 2.452063 213,617 1,395 0.7% 198,450 3,354 1.7% 2.452064 214,958 1,342 0.6% 201,748 3,298 1.7% 2.452065 216,247 1,288 0.6% 204,976 3,228 1.6% 2.45

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 169

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 174: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

170 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 175: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Wayne County

Table 1: Wayne Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 2,725 39.2 605 1,455 509

2016 2,718 (6) -0.2% 39.6 584 (21) -3.5% 1,438 (17) -1.1% 540 31 6.1%

2017 2,747 29 1.1% 39.6 585 1 0.2% 1,444 6 0.4% 561 21 3.9%

2018 2,778 31 1.1% 39.7 570 (15) -2.5% 1,467 23 1.6% 574 13 2.3%

2019 2,807 29 1.1% 39.8 567 (3) -0.6% 1,492 24 1.7% 579 5 0.9%

2020 2,832 25 0.9% 39.9 553 (14) -2.5% 1,512 21 1.4% 588 9 1.6%

2021 2,861 28 1.0% 40.2 545 (8) -1.5% 1,530 18 1.2% 603 15 2.6%

2022 2,890 30 1.0% 40.5 528 (17) -3.0% 1,558 28 1.8% 616 12 2.0%

2023 2,922 31 1.1% 40.7 520 (8) -1.6% 1,574 17 1.1% 632 17 2.7%

2024 2,953 32 1.1% 40.7 518 (1) -0.3% 1,587 12 0.8% 647 15 2.4%

2025 2,985 32 1.1% 40.6 519 0 0.1% 1,600 14 0.9% 659 12 1.9%

2026 3,020 35 1.2% 40.4 521 2 0.4% 1,617 17 1.1% 669 10 1.5%

2027 3,057 37 1.2% 40.1 524 3 0.6% 1,632 15 0.9% 682 13 1.9%

2028 3,095 38 1.2% 39.9 529 5 1.0% 1,650 18 1.1% 691 9 1.3%

2029 3,135 40 1.3% 39.4 540 11 2.1% 1,663 13 0.8% 701 11 1.5%

2030 3,175 40 1.3% 39.2 552 12 2.2% 1,685 22 1.3% 702 0 0.1%

2031 3,216 41 1.3% 39.2 573 21 3.7% 1,699 14 0.8% 704 2 0.3%

2032 3,255 39 1.2% 39.3 588 15 2.6% 1,717 18 1.1% 707 3 0.4%

2033 3,293 38 1.2% 39.4 609 21 3.6% 1,734 17 1.0% 705 (2) -0.3%

2034 3,329 36 1.1% 39.4 624 15 2.4% 1,762 27 1.6% 698 (7) -1.0%

2035 3,363 33 1.0% 39.5 639 16 2.5% 1,779 17 1.0% 700 1 0.2%

2036 3,394 31 0.9% 39.5 654 15 2.3% 1,795 17 0.9% 701 1 0.2%

2037 3,423 29 0.8% 39.6 667 13 2.0% 1,807 12 0.7% 707 6 0.8%

2038 3,449 26 0.8% 39.8 679 12 1.8% 1,816 9 0.5% 715 9 1.2%

2039 3,473 25 0.7% 39.9 689 10 1.4% 1,828 12 0.7% 722 6 0.9%

2040 3,496 23 0.7% 40.1 697 8 1.1% 1,837 9 0.5% 731 10 1.4%

2041 3,518 22 0.6% 40.3 702 6 0.8% 1,843 7 0.4% 744 12 1.7%

2042 3,538 20 0.6% 40.5 706 4 0.5% 1,860 17 0.9% 746 2 0.3%

2043 3,557 19 0.5% 40.7 707 1 0.2% 1,873 13 0.7% 753 6 0.9%

2044 3,575 18 0.5% 41.0 706 (1) -0.1% 1,887 13 0.7% 759 7 0.9%

2045 3,593 17 0.5% 41.3 703 (3) -0.4% 1,898 11 0.6% 768 9 1.2%

2046 3,609 17 0.5% 41.7 699 (5) -0.7% 1,905 7 0.4% 782 13 1.7%

2047 3,626 16 0.5% 41.9 693 (6) -0.8% 1,912 7 0.3% 796 14 1.8%

2048 3,642 17 0.5% 42.1 687 (6) -0.9% 1,925 13 0.7% 803 8 1.0%

2049 3,659 17 0.5% 42.2 680 (7) -1.0% 1,940 16 0.8% 808 5 0.6%

2050 3,676 17 0.5% 42.3 674 (6) -0.9% 1,958 17 0.9% 812 3 0.4%

2051 3,696 19 0.5% 42.4 669 (5) -0.8% 1,978 20 1.0% 812 1 0.1%

2052 3,716 21 0.6% 42.5 665 (4) -0.6% 1,997 19 1.0% 814 2 0.2%

2053 3,739 23 0.6% 42.5 662 (2) -0.3% 2,017 20 1.0% 816 1 0.2%

2054 3,764 25 0.7% 42.5 662 (0) -0.1% 2,040 23 1.2% 814 (2) -0.2%

2055 3,792 27 0.7% 42.2 663 1 0.2% 2,064 23 1.1% 812 (2) -0.2%

2056 3,821 30 0.8% 42.1 667 4 0.5% 2,081 17 0.8% 817 5 0.6%

2057 3,853 32 0.8% 41.8 672 5 0.8% 2,091 10 0.5% 830 12 1.5%

2058 3,885 32 0.8% 41.7 679 7 1.0% 2,094 3 0.1% 849 19 2.3%

2059 3,918 34 0.9% 41.6 688 8 1.2% 2,098 4 0.2% 867 19 2.2%

2060 3,953 35 0.9% 41.5 697 10 1.4% 2,110 12 0.6% 878 11 1.2%

2061 3,988 35 0.9% 41.4 708 10 1.5% 2,118 8 0.4% 893 15 1.7%

2062 4,024 36 0.9% 41.4 719 11 1.5% 2,131 13 0.6% 903 11 1.2%

2063 4,060 36 0.9% 41.3 730 11 1.5% 2,137 6 0.3% 921 18 2.0%

2064 4,095 35 0.9% 41.4 740 11 1.5% 2,148 11 0.5% 935 14 1.5%

2065 4,130 35 0.8% 41.4 751 10 1.4% 2,155 7 0.3% 953 18 1.9%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 171

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 176: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Wayne: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Wayne: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

172 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 177: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Wayne Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Wayne 27 28 -1 -14 -152016 Wayne 35 32 3 -9 -62017 Wayne 32 27 6 23 292018 Wayne 34 27 6 24 312019 Wayne 35 28 7 22 292020 Wayne 36 28 8 17 252021 Wayne 37 25 12 16 282022 Wayne 38 26 13 17 302023 Wayne 40 26 14 18 312024 Wayne 41 27 14 18 322025 Wayne 42 27 15 17 322026 Wayne 43 28 16 20 352027 Wayne 44 28 16 21 372028 Wayne 45 29 17 21 382029 Wayne 46 29 17 23 402030 Wayne 47 30 17 23 402031 Wayne 47 31 17 24 412032 Wayne 47 31 16 23 392033 Wayne 47 32 15 23 382034 Wayne 47 32 15 22 362035 Wayne 46 33 14 20 332036 Wayne 46 33 12 19 312037 Wayne 45 34 11 17 292038 Wayne 44 34 10 16 262039 Wayne 44 35 9 15 252040 Wayne 43 35 8 14 232041 Wayne 43 35 8 14 222042 Wayne 43 35 7 13 202043 Wayne 43 36 7 12 192044 Wayne 43 36 7 11 182045 Wayne 43 36 8 10 172046 Wayne 44 36 8 9 172047 Wayne 44 36 9 8 162048 Wayne 45 36 9 7 172049 Wayne 46 36 10 7 172050 Wayne 46 36 10 7 172051 Wayne 47 36 11 8 192052 Wayne 48 36 12 9 212053 Wayne 49 36 13 10 232054 Wayne 50 36 14 12 252055 Wayne 50 36 14 13 272056 Wayne 51 36 15 15 302057 Wayne 51 36 15 16 322058 Wayne 52 36 15 17 322059 Wayne 52 36 16 18 342060 Wayne 52 37 16 19 352061 Wayne 52 37 15 20 352062 Wayne 52 37 15 21 362063 Wayne 52 37 15 21 362064 Wayne 52 38 14 21 352065 Wayne 52 38 14 21 35

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 173

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 178: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Wayne: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Wayne: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

174 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 179: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Wayne Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 1,763 1,134 2.392016 1,810 47 2.6% 1,139 5 0.5% 2.382017 1,858 48 2.7% 1,160 21 1.9% 2.362018 1,903 45 2.4% 1,169 9 0.8% 2.372019 1,944 41 2.1% 1,186 17 1.4% 2.362020 1,981 37 1.9% 1,207 21 1.8% 2.342021 2,016 35 1.8% 1,222 15 1.2% 2.332022 2,049 33 1.6% 1,242 20 1.6% 2.322023 2,081 32 1.5% 1,265 23 1.9% 2.302024 2,111 31 1.5% 1,283 17 1.4% 2.292025 2,141 30 1.4% 1,301 19 1.5% 2.292026 2,170 29 1.3% 1,313 11 0.9% 2.292027 2,198 28 1.3% 1,331 18 1.4% 2.292028 2,226 28 1.3% 1,350 19 1.4% 2.292029 2,254 28 1.2% 1,369 20 1.5% 2.282030 2,281 27 1.2% 1,370 0 0.0% 2.312031 2,308 27 1.2% 1,394 24 1.8% 2.302032 2,335 27 1.2% 1,408 14 1.0% 2.302033 2,362 27 1.1% 1,424 17 1.2% 2.302034 2,388 26 1.1% 1,432 8 0.6% 2.322035 2,414 26 1.1% 1,450 18 1.2% 2.312036 2,440 26 1.1% 1,460 10 0.7% 2.322037 2,466 26 1.1% 1,482 21 1.5% 2.302038 2,491 26 1.0% 1,480 (2) -0.1% 2.322039 2,517 25 1.0% 1,489 9 0.6% 2.322040 2,542 25 1.0% 1,500 11 0.8% 2.322041 2,567 25 1.0% 1,510 10 0.6% 2.322042 2,593 25 1.0% 1,514 4 0.3% 2.332043 2,618 25 1.0% 1,530 16 1.1% 2.322044 2,643 25 1.0% 1,534 4 0.2% 2.322045 2,668 25 1.0% 1,547 14 0.9% 2.312046 2,694 25 0.9% 1,548 0 0.0% 2.322047 2,719 25 0.9% 1,564 16 1.1% 2.312048 2,744 25 0.9% 1,572 8 0.5% 2.312049 2,770 26 0.9% 1,586 14 0.9% 2.302050 2,796 26 0.9% 1,590 4 0.2% 2.302051 2,821 26 0.9% 1,607 17 1.1% 2.292052 2,848 26 0.9% 1,620 13 0.8% 2.282053 2,874 26 0.9% 1,637 17 1.1% 2.272054 2,900 26 0.9% 1,644 7 0.4% 2.282055 2,927 27 0.9% 1,657 13 0.8% 2.282056 2,954 27 0.9% 1,669 12 0.7% 2.282057 2,981 27 0.9% 1,687 18 1.1% 2.272058 3,008 27 0.9% 1,697 10 0.6% 2.282059 3,036 28 0.9% 1,714 17 1.0% 2.282060 3,063 28 0.9% 1,729 14 0.8% 2.282061 3,091 28 0.9% 1,746 18 1.0% 2.272062 3,119 28 0.9% 1,759 12 0.7% 2.282063 3,148 28 0.9% 1,779 21 1.2% 2.272064 3,176 28 0.9% 1,792 12 0.7% 2.282065 3,204 28 0.9% 1,813 21 1.2% 2.27

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 175

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 180: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

176 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 181: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Weber County

Table 1: Weber Demographic Summary: 2015-2065

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

Median Age

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

Rate2015 242,737 32.4 51,253 144,590 27,450

2016 245,672 2,935 1.2% 32.6 51,619 366 0.7% 146,494 1,904 1.3% 28,160 711 2.6%

2017 250,832 5,160 2.1% 32.9 52,327 708 1.4% 149,549 3,055 2.1% 29,328 1,168 4.1%

2018 256,282 5,450 2.2% 33.2 53,094 767 1.5% 152,676 3,127 2.1% 30,586 1,258 4.3%

2019 261,558 5,276 2.1% 33.5 53,581 487 0.9% 155,688 3,012 2.0% 31,939 1,352 4.4%

2020 266,440 4,881 1.9% 33.8 54,144 562 1.0% 158,303 2,615 1.7% 33,351 1,412 4.4%

2021 271,129 4,689 1.8% 34.1 54,624 480 0.9% 160,656 2,352 1.5% 35,001 1,650 4.9%

2022 275,445 4,317 1.6% 34.4 55,034 410 0.8% 162,821 2,165 1.3% 36,659 1,658 4.7%

2023 279,475 4,029 1.5% 34.8 55,356 323 0.6% 164,849 2,029 1.2% 38,287 1,628 4.4%

2024 283,192 3,717 1.3% 35.1 55,505 149 0.3% 166,784 1,934 1.2% 39,886 1,599 4.2%

2025 286,593 3,401 1.2% 35.4 55,494 (11) 0.0% 168,564 1,780 1.1% 41,492 1,606 4.0%

2026 290,052 3,459 1.2% 35.8 55,434 (60) -0.1% 170,452 1,888 1.1% 43,067 1,575 3.8%

2027 293,358 3,306 1.1% 36.1 55,330 (103) -0.2% 172,290 1,838 1.1% 44,568 1,501 3.5%

2028 296,561 3,203 1.1% 36.3 55,271 (59) -0.1% 174,144 1,854 1.1% 45,892 1,324 3.0%

2029 299,678 3,117 1.1% 36.6 55,304 33 0.1% 175,859 1,715 1.0% 47,164 1,271 2.8%

2030 302,764 3,086 1.0% 36.7 55,380 76 0.1% 177,609 1,749 1.0% 48,305 1,141 2.4%

2031 305,802 3,038 1.0% 36.9 55,462 82 0.1% 179,472 1,864 1.0% 49,264 960 2.0%

2032 308,796 2,994 1.0% 37.0 55,688 226 0.4% 181,178 1,706 1.0% 50,186 921 1.9%

2033 311,723 2,927 0.9% 37.2 55,842 154 0.3% 183,005 1,826 1.0% 50,989 803 1.6%

2034 314,567 2,844 0.9% 37.4 55,969 127 0.2% 184,740 1,735 0.9% 51,829 840 1.6%

2035 317,344 2,777 0.9% 37.6 56,019 50 0.1% 186,378 1,638 0.9% 52,786 957 1.8%

2036 320,064 2,720 0.9% 37.8 56,088 69 0.1% 187,897 1,519 0.8% 53,800 1,014 1.9%

2037 322,750 2,686 0.8% 37.9 56,193 105 0.2% 189,473 1,576 0.8% 54,703 903 1.7%

2038 325,413 2,663 0.8% 38.1 56,340 147 0.3% 191,142 1,669 0.9% 55,464 761 1.4%

2039 328,069 2,656 0.8% 38.3 56,529 189 0.3% 192,624 1,482 0.8% 56,376 912 1.6%

2040 330,732 2,663 0.8% 38.5 56,763 234 0.4% 194,044 1,420 0.7% 57,323 947 1.7%

2041 333,401 2,669 0.8% 38.6 57,034 271 0.5% 195,334 1,290 0.7% 58,380 1,057 1.8%

2042 336,073 2,672 0.8% 38.8 57,333 299 0.5% 196,471 1,137 0.6% 59,573 1,193 2.0%

2043 338,740 2,668 0.8% 39.0 57,648 316 0.6% 197,455 984 0.5% 60,906 1,333 2.2%

2044 341,391 2,650 0.8% 39.1 57,975 327 0.6% 198,386 931 0.5% 62,268 1,362 2.2%

2045 344,025 2,634 0.8% 39.3 58,306 331 0.6% 199,202 816 0.4% 63,730 1,462 2.3%

2046 346,636 2,611 0.8% 39.5 58,629 323 0.6% 199,899 698 0.4% 65,297 1,567 2.5%

2047 349,217 2,582 0.7% 39.7 58,937 307 0.5% 200,547 647 0.3% 66,903 1,606 2.5%

2048 351,779 2,562 0.7% 39.9 59,222 285 0.5% 201,200 653 0.3% 68,504 1,601 2.4%

2049 354,310 2,531 0.7% 40.1 59,481 259 0.4% 201,862 662 0.3% 70,089 1,585 2.3%

2050 356,812 2,502 0.7% 40.2 59,710 229 0.4% 202,419 557 0.3% 71,778 1,689 2.4%

2051 359,274 2,462 0.7% 40.4 59,909 199 0.3% 202,919 500 0.2% 73,505 1,728 2.4%

2052 361,701 2,426 0.7% 40.5 60,077 168 0.3% 203,446 527 0.3% 75,196 1,690 2.3%

2053 364,069 2,368 0.7% 40.7 60,210 134 0.2% 204,074 628 0.3% 76,756 1,560 2.1%

2054 366,374 2,305 0.6% 40.8 60,314 104 0.2% 204,536 462 0.2% 78,444 1,688 2.2%

2055 368,635 2,261 0.6% 40.9 60,395 81 0.1% 204,839 303 0.1% 80,262 1,818 2.3%

2056 370,848 2,213 0.6% 41.0 60,457 62 0.1% 205,332 494 0.2% 81,853 1,591 2.0%

2057 373,018 2,170 0.6% 41.1 60,505 48 0.1% 206,176 843 0.4% 83,059 1,206 1.5%

2058 375,155 2,137 0.6% 41.2 60,544 39 0.1% 207,214 1,038 0.5% 84,039 980 1.2%

2059 377,267 2,112 0.6% 41.3 60,583 39 0.1% 208,470 1,256 0.6% 84,770 731 0.9%

2060 379,350 2,083 0.6% 41.4 60,626 42 0.1% 209,720 1,250 0.6% 85,471 700 0.8%

2061 381,404 2,055 0.5% 41.6 60,676 50 0.1% 210,765 1,045 0.5% 86,336 866 1.0%

2062 383,436 2,032 0.5% 41.7 60,738 62 0.1% 211,563 798 0.4% 87,413 1,076 1.2%

2063 385,438 2,002 0.5% 41.7 60,814 77 0.1% 212,450 887 0.4% 88,357 944 1.1%

2064 387,405 1,966 0.5% 41.8 60,907 92 0.2% 213,312 862 0.4% 89,275 919 1.0%

2065 389,334 1,930 0.5% 41.9 61,017 110 0.2% 214,116 804 0.4% 90,200 925 1.0%

Total Population School Age Population (5-17) Working Age Population (18-64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 177

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 182: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Weber: 2010 Population Pyramid

Male Female

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

Under 5 years5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 to 89 years90 to 94 years95 to 99 years

100+ years

Weber: 2065 Population Pyramid

Male Female

178 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 183: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 2: Weber Components of Change

Year County Births DeathsNatural Increase

Net Migration Growth

2015 Weber 3,872 1,791 2,081 1,074 3,1552016 Weber 3,923 1,796 2,127 808 2,9352017 Weber 4,005 1,579 2,426 2,734 5,1602018 Weber 4,044 1,628 2,416 3,034 5,4502019 Weber 4,081 1,679 2,402 2,874 5,2762020 Weber 4,113 1,730 2,383 2,498 4,8812021 Weber 4,140 1,551 2,589 2,100 4,6892022 Weber 4,158 1,591 2,567 1,749 4,3172023 Weber 4,176 1,631 2,544 1,485 4,0292024 Weber 4,194 1,672 2,523 1,194 3,7172025 Weber 4,213 1,713 2,500 901 3,4012026 Weber 4,233 1,755 2,478 981 3,4592027 Weber 4,259 1,798 2,462 845 3,3062028 Weber 4,289 1,842 2,446 756 3,2032029 Weber 4,320 1,889 2,431 686 3,1172030 Weber 4,353 1,937 2,416 669 3,0862031 Weber 4,386 1,987 2,399 639 3,0382032 Weber 4,418 2,038 2,380 614 2,9942033 Weber 4,447 2,092 2,355 572 2,9272034 Weber 4,472 2,147 2,326 519 2,8442035 Weber 4,495 2,203 2,293 484 2,7772036 Weber 4,513 2,260 2,253 467 2,7202037 Weber 4,527 2,317 2,209 477 2,6862038 Weber 4,536 2,375 2,161 502 2,6632039 Weber 4,544 2,433 2,111 545 2,6562040 Weber 4,550 2,490 2,060 603 2,6632041 Weber 4,553 2,547 2,006 663 2,6692042 Weber 4,556 2,603 1,953 719 2,6722043 Weber 4,558 2,658 1,899 769 2,6682044 Weber 4,560 2,712 1,848 802 2,6502045 Weber 4,561 2,764 1,798 837 2,6342046 Weber 4,564 2,813 1,751 860 2,6112047 Weber 4,566 2,860 1,706 876 2,5822048 Weber 4,570 2,906 1,665 897 2,5622049 Weber 4,577 2,948 1,629 902 2,5312050 Weber 4,584 2,988 1,596 906 2,5022051 Weber 4,594 3,026 1,568 894 2,4622052 Weber 4,606 3,063 1,543 883 2,4262053 Weber 4,620 3,098 1,522 846 2,3682054 Weber 4,636 3,131 1,505 800 2,3052055 Weber 4,653 3,163 1,489 772 2,2612056 Weber 4,671 3,195 1,476 737 2,2132057 Weber 4,690 3,227 1,463 707 2,1702058 Weber 4,710 3,259 1,451 686 2,1372059 Weber 4,731 3,292 1,439 674 2,1122060 Weber 4,752 3,328 1,424 658 2,0832061 Weber 4,773 3,366 1,407 648 2,0552062 Weber 4,793 3,407 1,386 646 2,0322063 Weber 4,813 3,451 1,362 640 2,0022064 Weber 4,831 3,498 1,333 633 1,9662065 Weber 4,849 3,550 1,299 631 1,930

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 179

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 184: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Weber: Absolute and % Growth

Absolute Growth Growth Rate

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Weber: Components of Change

Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

180 Informed Decisions™

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Page 185: Utah's Long-term Demographic and Economic Projectionsgardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Kem-C.-Gardner-County-Detail... · C. Gardner Policy Institute is pleased to submit our 2017

Table 3: Weber Employment and Households

YearTotal

Absolute Growth

Growth Rate

TotalAbsolute

GrowthGrowth

RateAverage

Size2015 131,651 85,795 2.802016 136,609 4,958 3.8% 87,227 1,432 1.7% 2.792017 141,720 5,111 3.7% 89,442 2,215 2.5% 2.772018 146,653 4,933 3.5% 91,775 2,333 2.6% 2.762019 151,165 4,512 3.1% 94,031 2,257 2.5% 2.752020 155,130 3,965 2.6% 96,182 2,150 2.3% 2.742021 158,561 3,431 2.2% 98,321 2,139 2.2% 2.732022 161,631 3,070 1.9% 100,337 2,016 2.1% 2.722023 164,482 2,850 1.8% 102,289 1,952 1.9% 2.702024 167,111 2,630 1.6% 104,158 1,870 1.8% 2.692025 169,524 2,413 1.4% 105,945 1,786 1.7% 2.682026 171,727 2,203 1.3% 107,760 1,815 1.7% 2.662027 173,731 2,004 1.2% 109,542 1,782 1.7% 2.652028 175,551 1,820 1.0% 111,301 1,759 1.6% 2.632029 177,205 1,654 0.9% 113,036 1,736 1.6% 2.622030 178,714 1,509 0.9% 114,771 1,735 1.5% 2.612031 180,097 1,383 0.8% 116,506 1,735 1.5% 2.592032 181,368 1,271 0.7% 118,213 1,707 1.5% 2.582033 182,540 1,172 0.6% 119,898 1,685 1.4% 2.572034 183,626 1,085 0.6% 121,571 1,673 1.4% 2.562035 184,636 1,010 0.6% 123,153 1,582 1.3% 2.552036 185,582 946 0.5% 124,694 1,541 1.3% 2.542037 186,473 891 0.5% 126,220 1,525 1.2% 2.532038 187,319 845 0.5% 127,745 1,526 1.2% 2.522039 188,126 807 0.4% 129,247 1,502 1.2% 2.512040 188,901 775 0.4% 130,719 1,472 1.1% 2.502041 189,650 749 0.4% 132,159 1,441 1.1% 2.492042 190,376 726 0.4% 133,537 1,378 1.0% 2.492043 191,083 706 0.4% 134,866 1,329 1.0% 2.482044 191,771 688 0.4% 136,146 1,279 0.9% 2.482045 192,441 670 0.3% 137,384 1,238 0.9% 2.472046 193,092 651 0.3% 138,589 1,205 0.9% 2.472047 193,721 629 0.3% 139,762 1,173 0.8% 2.472048 194,325 604 0.3% 140,904 1,142 0.8% 2.462049 194,898 573 0.3% 142,034 1,130 0.8% 2.462050 195,439 541 0.3% 143,170 1,137 0.8% 2.462051 195,952 514 0.3% 144,279 1,109 0.8% 2.462052 196,442 490 0.3% 145,375 1,096 0.8% 2.452053 196,912 470 0.2% 146,502 1,128 0.8% 2.452054 197,365 453 0.2% 147,723 1,220 0.8% 2.452055 197,804 439 0.2% 148,917 1,194 0.8% 2.442056 198,230 427 0.2% 150,091 1,175 0.8% 2.442057 198,647 417 0.2% 151,281 1,190 0.8% 2.432058 199,055 408 0.2% 152,483 1,202 0.8% 2.432059 199,455 400 0.2% 153,713 1,230 0.8% 2.422060 199,849 393 0.2% 154,962 1,250 0.8% 2.412061 200,235 386 0.2% 156,219 1,257 0.8% 2.412062 200,614 379 0.2% 157,409 1,190 0.8% 2.402063 200,984 371 0.2% 158,589 1,180 0.7% 2.402064 201,346 361 0.2% 159,776 1,187 0.7% 2.392065 201,696 350 0.2% 160,949 1,173 0.7% 2.38

Total Employment Total Households

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 181

___________________________________________________________________________________________