USE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS AND CLIMATE .seasonal forecasts and climate prediction and the products

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  • WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

    COMMISSION FOR AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY

    CAgM Report No. 102

    USE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS AND CLIMATE PREDICTION IN OPERATIONAL AGRICULTURE

    Prepared by

    M. Harrison, A. Kanga., G.O. Magrin, G. Hugo, I. Tarakidzwa, C. Mullen, H. Meinke

    Report of the Working Group on the Use of Seasonal Forecasts and

    Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture

    WMO/TD No. 1344

    Geneva, Switzerland

    March 2007

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT.. i CHAPTER 1

    REPORT TO THE COMMISSION FOR AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY WORKING GROUP ON THE USE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS AND CLIMATE PREDICTION IN OPERATIONAL AGRICULTURE (Mike Harrison)......

    1

    1.1 Introduction .. 1 1.2 Terms of Reference (a)... 1 1.3 Terms of Reference (b)... 4 1.4 Terms of Reference (c)... 6 1.5 Terms of Reference (d)... 8 1.6 References .. 9 CHAPTER 2 THE USE OF SEASONAL AND CLIMATE FORECASTING IN

    OPERATIONAL AGRICULTURE (Alphonse Kanga).. 11

    2.1 Introduction ...... 11 2.2 Seasonal Forecasts.... 12 2.3 Medium-range Forecasts: Dynamic Downscaling.. 12 2.4 The CLIMAG Project... 13 CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF THE EL NIO PHENOMENON ON CROP

    PRODUCTION IN THE ARGENTINE PAMPEANA REGION (Graciela O. Magrin, Martin O. Grondona, Maria I. Travasso, Diego R. Boulln, Gabriel R. Rodriguez, and Carlos D. Messina)......

    17

    3.1 Introduction .. 17 3.2 Phases of the ENSO Phenomenon.. 17 3.3 Analysis of National Level Yields . 17 3.4 Area Abandoned...... 18 3.5 Analysis of Precipitation..... 18 3.6 Relationships Between Yields and Climatic Variability . 19 3.7 Some Considerations on the Use of Seasonal Forecasts in the

    Agricultural Sector... 20

    3.8 Conclusions . 21 CHAPTER 4 LONG-RANGE FORECAST PROGRAM IN SOUTH AMERICA

    (Gualterio Hugo).. 22

    4.1 Introduction .. 22 4.2 El Nio-Southern Oscillation . 22 4.2.1 El Nio .. 22 4.2.2 La Nia . 23 4.3 Atmospheric Aspects and Atmospheric Teleconnections. 23 4.3.1 Mechanisms of remote influence of the atmospheric circulation. 23 4.3.2 Jet streams... 24 4.4 El Nio and La Nia in Various Regions of South America.. 24 4.4.1 Argentina... 24 4.4.2 Chile... 24 4.4.3 Precipitation anomalies in central and southern Chile during the 1997

    El Nio and 1998 La Nia ...................................................................... 25

    4.4.4 The South American Highland .. 26 4.4.5 Paraguay, Southern Brazil and Uruguay. 26 4.4.6 Colombia.. 27 4.5 The Seasonal Climate Forecast in South America 27 4.6 Early Warning . 27 4.7 References .. 27

  • ii

    CHAPTER 5 USE AND DISSEMINATION OF SEASONAL CLIMATE

    FORECASTS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN AFRICA (Isaac Tarakidzwa) .....

    29

    5.1 Abstract .... 29 5.2 Introduction .. 29 5.3 Terms of Reference (a).. 30 5.3.1 Regression ... 30 5.3.2 Analogue .. 31 5.3.3 Period Analysis... 31 5.3.4 Integration of indigenous knowledge in seasonal climate

    forecast . 31

    5.3.5 Characteristics of current seasonal forecasts 32 5.3.6 Dissemination and communication of seasonal climate

    forecast . 32

    5.4 Terms of Reference (b)... 33 5.4.1 Current applications and possible impacts of seasonal forecasts:

    Zambias perspective . 34

    5.4.2 Current applications and possible impacts of seasonal forecast: Zimbabwes Perspective ..

    35

    5.4.3 Current applications and possible impacts of seasonal forecasts: Tanzanias perspective ..

    37

    5.4.4 Current applications and possible impacts of seasonal forecasts: South Africas perspective .

    38

    5.5 Terms of Reference (c)... 38 5.6 References 39 CHAPTER 6 USE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS AND CLIMATE PREDICTION IN

    OPERATIONAL AGRICULTURE IN WMO REGION V (Clare Mullen)...

    41

    6.1 Introduction . 41 6.2 Terms of Reference (a)... 41 6.2.1 Australia. 41 6.2.2 New Zealand. 44 6.2.3 Fiji... 44 6.2.4 Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC). 45 6.2.5 South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC)... 45 6.2.6 South Pacific Regional Environmental Progamme (SPREP)... 45 6.2.7 Indonesia... 45 6.2.8 Papua New Guinea. 46 6.3 Terms of Reference (b)... 46 6.3.1 A case study of tactical decision-making for a dryland grain/cotton

    farmer Meinke & Hochman (2000) 47

    6.3.1.1 Nitrogen management. 47 6.3.2.2 Managing frost risk in wheat.. 47 6.3.1.3 Marketing.. 48 6.3.1.4 Specific management actions during the 1997 and 1998 seasons. 48 6.3.2 Example application sugar cane industry. 49 6.3.3 Managing climate variability in grazing enterprises: a case study of

    Darylmple shire, north-eastern Australia.. 50

    6.3.4 Seasonal climate forecasting and the management of rangelands: Do production benefits translate into enterprise profits?..............................

    51

    6.4 Terms of Reference (c).. 51 6.5 Dissemination methods.. 52 6.5.1 Identification of user needs 52

  • iii

    6.5.2 Education.. 52 6.5.3 Assessment of forecast skill... 53 6.6 Terms of Reference (d).. 54 6.7 Summary .. 55 6.8 El Nio Alert System Criteria. 55 6.9 Referentes. 57 CHAPTER 7 MANAGEMENT RESPONSES TO SEASONAL CLIMATE

    FORECASTS IN CROPPING SYSTEM OF SOUTH ASIAS SEMI-ARID TROPICS (APN 2000-017) (Holger Meinke, James Hansen, Ramasamy Selvaraju, Sulochana Gadgil, Krishna Kumar, and Muhammad Aslam).

    59

    7.1 Executive Summary. 59 7.2 Objectives and Approaches... 61 7.3 Design and Gain Additional Funding for a Comprehensive Program. 61 7.4 Project Coordination 63 7.4.1 Inaugural Project Team Meeting, Palisades, New York,

    1-2 May 2000 63

    7.4.2 Project site visits and team meetings, Pakistan and India, September 2000..

    63

    7.4.3 Toowoomba Training and Analysis Workshop, 6-17 November 2000 64 7.5 Publications Related or Arising from this Project 65 7.6 Climate Variability and Seasonal Climate Forecasts. 66 7.6.1 General description of climatic features and issues for the future... 66 7.6.2 Current skill of seasonal forecasting based on SOI phases. 68 7.6.3 Tamil Nadu 68 7.7 Case Study Pakistan... 69 7.7.1 Islamabad Zone 69 7.7.2 Use and parameterisation of the APSIM model.. 70 7.7.3 Results... 70 7.7.4 Lahore Zone. 71 7.8 Case Study Tamil Nadu, India... 71 7.8.1 Background... 71 7.8.2 Farm surveys 72 7.8.3 Avinashi. 73 7.8.4 Thiruchengodu. 74 7.9 Case Study Bangalore, India. 75 7.9.1 Socio economic environment. 75 7.9.1.1 Social structure land holding distribution. 75 7.9.1.2 Farm economics.. 75 7.9.1.3 Access to credit 76 7.9.1.4 Vulnerability and coping strategies... 76 7.9.2 Simulation of peanut yield and biomass with APSIM. 77 7.10 Lessons Learned and Recommendations the Next Phase 77 7.11 Climate and Agriculture: From Vulnerable to Resilient Farming

    Systems. 78

    7.11.1 Climate variability and change poses risk and opportunities for farmers.

    78

    7.11.2 The RES AGRICOLA Network.. 80 7.11.2.1 Goals.. 80 7.11.2.2 Approach... 80

  • i

    ABSTRACT

    The Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) at its 12th Session held in Accra, Ghana, 18-26 February 1999, established the Working Group on the Use of Seasonal Forecasts Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture. The Terms of Reference of the Working Group are: a) In liaison with the CLIPS project, review and summarise the current advances in

    seasonal forecasts and climate prediction and the products and services relevant to agriculture that are becoming available based on the forecasts

    b) To survey and summarise, using appropriate case studies, the current applications

    and possible impacts of seasonal forecasts and climate prediction in agriculture, forestry and livestock management

    c) To review and recommend ways to use and disseminate optimally the seasonal

    forecasts and climate prediction in operational agriculture with emphasis on user needs especially in the tropical and subtropical zones

    d) To assess the potential of predictions in Early Warnings to reduce the adverse

    impacts of climate events on agriculture, forestry and livestock management. The Commission for Agricultural Meteorology Working Group on the Use of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture met in Geneva, 15-18 January 2002. Members of the Working Group who were present included: Ms Claire Mullen of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Mr Gualterio Hugo of the National Meteorological Service of Chile; Mr Alphonse Kanga of the Meteorological Service of Niger; and Mr Isaac Tarakidzwa of the Zimbabwean Meteorological Service. Dr Mike Harrison of the Met Office, United Kingdom, chaired the Group and the Commission was represented by Dr Sivakumar of the WMO Secretariat. In addition to the above participants, a report was added to this document by a team of scientists working on climate forecasts in the cropping system of South Asia. These authors include: Dr H. Meinke from the Department of Primary Industries of Queendland, Australia, Dr J. Hansen from the International Research Institute from the USA, Dr Selvaraju from the Agricultural University in India, Dr S. Gadgil from the Indian Institute of Science in India, Dr K. Kumar from IITM, India and Dr M. Aslam from the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council in Pakistan. The meeting of the Working Group was well-timed from two perspectives. First, the Commission for Climatology had met in November 2001 and had agreed the formation of a number of Open Programme Area Groups (OPAGs), the activities of which had substantial relevance to the activities of the Working Group. With the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology planning to discuss the formation of its own OPAGs at the meeting in Ljubljana in October 2002, the Working Group