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US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG®
Temperature Target and Evaluation Criteria of the Middle Fork Willamette River
Dan Turner
Environmental Engineer
Portland
January 27, 2015
BUILDING STRONG®
PORTLAND DISTRICT2
Outline
Overview Operational Target update Evaluation Criteria Discussion Preliminary Alternative Analysis
Goal: elicit feedback in time to solidify operational target and evaluation criteria by 60% draft (due in March)
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Middle Fork Willamette
3 dams► Hills Creek► Lookout Point► Dexter
http://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/nwp/teacup/willamette/
Big Cliff
Detroit
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Overview
Middle Fork Willamette Downstream Fish Passage and Water Quality / Temperature Control Alternatives Study
Temperature analysis based on water quality model scenarios
Temperature targets I need:► Operational target (aka model input target)► Alternative evaluation criteria
Continuation of previous meetings …
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Update: Operational Target Used to guide operations (either model or real) on a
specific day. Time variable, instantaneous temperature Sets a goal, like a rule curve Determines how much flow should be passed through
different outlets
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Update: Operational
Target
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Alternative Evaluation Criteria Used to evaluate temperature impacts after the fact. Should highlight important times and places Proposing using the percent of days not achieving (daily
mean temperature).
Use Date RangeImpact Type
criteria (°C)
criteria (°F) Reference
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 From sub-group, based on run timing and temperature
Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 Approx. maximum ‘upstream mix’ calc. d/s Dexter (mean 19.8)
Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 ODEQ core cold water criteria
Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 Same as incubation
Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 NFMS comment on 30% report; ODEQ spawning criteria
Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 From sub-group, based on experimentation (Taylor)
Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 NFMS comment on 30%
Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs early < ‘no dam’ calc. Standard reporting metric in annual report.
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Hills Creek Reservoir outflow
baseline data
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 100 (100 - 100)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 0 (0 - 16)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 100)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 67 (24 - 100)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 40)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 66 (49 - 75)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-08 (Nov-24 - Jan-05)
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Upstream Mix (‘no dam’) Calculation
‘Without Project’ estimate of temperature Function of:
► upstream temperature measurements► ratio of flow between tributaries► 0.11 °C / mile maximum warming► Assumptions that ungaged tributaries are insignificant
or similar to gaged tributaries
Based on Rounds 2010
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Hills Creek Reservoir outflow
upstream mix calculation
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 43 (3 - 88)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 4)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 18 (0 - 74)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 53)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 31 (0 - 89)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 20)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 33 (13 - 65)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Feb-17 (Dec-17 - Apr-30)
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Dexter Reservoir outflow
baseline data
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 43 (0 - 74)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 10 (0 - 47)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 91 (0 - 100)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 100 (100 - 100)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 34 (0 - 47)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 70 (61 - 83)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Nov-29 (Nov-19 - Dec-20)
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Dexter Reservoir outflow
upstream mix calculation
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 42 (16 - 74)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 5 (0 - 38)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 54 (26 - 62)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 36 (2 - 53)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 67 (49 - 82)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 13 (1 - 20)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 35 (24 - 40)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Feb-17 (Jan-07 - Apr-02)
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Evaluation locations
Middle Fork Willamette River:► Downstream Hills Creek► Downstream of Salt Creek confluence► Downstream of Salmon Creek confluence► Downstream of the North Fork of the Middle Fork
confluence► Upstream of Lookout Point Reservoir ► Downstream Dexter Dam
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Operational target v.
evaluation criteria
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Questions and Discussion
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Operations StructuresMinimum Power (%)
Max Lake Elevation (ft)
Scenario HCL LOP HCL LOP HCL LOP NotesnoBlend 100% 100% 1541 926 existing existing
base_lopSpillOnly 40% 40% 1541 926 existing no RO base rule curve; base with LOP spill, no RO usage
hclSpillwayWs1510 40% 40% 1510 926 Spillway existing HCL WS at max of 1510 to use spillway more effectively; LOP-DEX base rule curve; Spillway at HCL; 40% minimum power at HCL/LOP
hclFloat_pow1300_noHCLppmin
0% 40% 1541 926 float/lower outlet
existing Floating outlet at HCL; no HCL minimum power constraint; Lower outlet at 1300
hclFloat_pow1300_LopFloat_noppmin
0% 0% 1541 926 float/lower outlet
float Floating outlet at HCL; no HCL minimum power constraint; Lower outlet at 1300
Preliminary Alternatives
Each model scenario consists of three years: cool-wet, normal and hot-dry
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Hills Creek outflow:
noBlend current conditionspowerhouse outlet prioritized
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 100 (100 - 100)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 69 (0 - 98)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 73 (65 - 78)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-05 (Dec-01 - Dec-12)
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Hills Creek outflow:
base_lopSpillOnly powerhouse and RO flow optimized to achieve operational target (minimum 40% RO flow)
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 100 (100 - 100)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 60 (0 - 87)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 73 (65 - 78)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-05 (Dec-01 - Dec-12)
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Hills Creek outflow:
hclSpillwayWs1510Operate the spillway in additional the powerhouse and RO.
Hold pool elevation at 1510 ft (normal summer pool at 1541 ft)
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 64 (43 - 78)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 0 (0 - 7)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 33 (33 - 47)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 72 (69 - 75)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-15 (Dec-08 - Dec-25)
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Hills Creek outflow:
hclFloat_pow1300_LopFloat_noppmin
Hypothetical new structures that allow a ‘floating’ outlet and a new deep outlet at 1300 ft (1384 currently deepest)
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 50 (29 - 70)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 38 (31 - 43)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 33 (33 - 33)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 32 (32 - 45)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Jan-08 (Dec-31 - Jan-16)
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Thermal blocks downstream of Hills Creek Dam
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
C)
Distance upstream of LOP pool (miles)
May 23Current Condition
Temp Control Structure
Without Project
LOP Pool NF MF Willamette Salmon Cr. Salt Cr. HCR out
Thermal Block (<52 deg F)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
C)
Distance upstream of LOP pool (miles)
June 8Current Condition
Temp Control Structure
Without Project
LOP Pool NF MF Willamette Salmon Cr. Salt Cr. HCR out
Thermal Block (<52 deg F)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
C)
Distance upstream of LOP pool (miles)
June 23Current Condition
Temp Control Structure
Without Project
LOP Pool NF MF Willamette Salmon Cr. Salt Cr. HCR out
Thermal Block (<52 deg F)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
C)
Distance upstream of LOP pool (miles)
July 8Current Condition
Temp Control Structure
Without Project
LOP Pool NF MF Willamette Salmon Cr. Salt Cr. HCR out
Thermal Block (<52 deg F)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
C)
Distance upstream of LOP pool (miles)
Aug 23Current Condition
Temp Control Structure
Without Project
LOP Pool NF MF Willamette Salmon Cr. Salt Cr. HCR out
Thermal Block (<52 deg F)
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Mid Fork ds Salmon Cr:
noBlendcurrent conditionspowerhouse outlet prioritized
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 88 (71 - 100)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 2 (0 - 98)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 71 (68 - 74)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-14 (Dec-09 - Dec-25)
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Mid Fork ds Salmon Cr:
hclSpillwayWs1510Operate the spillway in additional the powerhouse and RO.
Hold pool elevation at 1510 ft (normal summer pool at 1541 ft)
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 64 (43 - 76)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 0 (0 - 7)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 27 (11 - 31)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 69 (58 - 72)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-28 (Dec-18 - Jan-09)
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Mid Fork ds Salmon Cr:
hclFloat_pow1300_LopFloat_noppmin
Hypothetical new structures that allow a ‘floating’ outlet and a new deep outlet at 1300 ft (1384 currently deepest)
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 55 (41 - 72)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 28 (17 - 36)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 29 (22 - 31)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 0 (0 - 0)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 32 (31 - 33)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Jan-18 (Jan-10 - Jan-27)
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Middle Fork Willamette downstream of Dexter Dam
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Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam:
noBlendcurrent conditionspowerhouse outlet prioritized
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 58 (46 - 79)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 0 (0 - 9)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 67 (18 - 100)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 100 (100 - 100)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 25 (7 - 38)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 72 (69 - 76)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Nov-29 (Nov-26 - Dec-03)
BUILDING STRONG®
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Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam:
base_lopSpillOnly powerhouse and RO flow optimized to achieve operational target (minimum 40% RO flow)
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 51 (4 - 70)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 40 (31 - 44)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 40 (38 - 42)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 98 (84 - 100)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 15 (14 - 16)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 71 (68 - 74)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-07 (Dec-02 - Dec-12)
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Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam:
hclSpillwayWs1510HCR: operate the spillway in additional the powerhouse and RO. Hold pool elevation at 1510 ft.
LOP: 40% min. power (base)
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 50 (25 - 72)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 39 (25 - 53)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 36 (24 - 49)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 71 (69 - 71)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 13 (9 - 18)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 72 (68 - 75)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-11 (Dec-05 - Dec-18)
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Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam: hclFloat_pow1300_LopFloat_noppminHCR: Hypothetical new structures that allow a ‘floating’ outlet and a new deep outlet at 1300 ft (1384 currently deepest) LOP: base
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 46 (1 - 66)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 0 (0 - 0)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 43 (38 - 55)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 40 (38 - 44)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 71 (69 - 100)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 15 (14 - 17)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 68 (64 - 70)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-12 (Dec-06 - Dec-18)
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Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam: hclFloat_pow1300_LopFloat_noppmin
HCR and LOP:temperature control structures.
Use Date Range Impact Type
criteria (deg. C)
criteria (deg. F)
% days not achieving criteria
Migration May-01 to Jul-15 delay < 11.1 < 52.0 12 (0 - 53)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 acute > 19.5 > 67.1 30 (24 - 42)Holding May-01 to Sep-15 chronic > 16.0 > 60.8 60 (54 - 65)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 40 (40 - 44)Spawning Sep-01 to Oct-15 chronic > 13.0 > 55.4 69 (67 - 69)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 acute > 15.6 > 60.1 15 (15 - 17)Incubation Sep-01 to Dec-31 chronic > 10.1 > 50.2 63 (47 - 68)Emergence Sep-20 plus 1750 ATUs -- -- -- Dec-23 (Dec-14 - Dec-31)
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Discussion
