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República Oriental del Uruguay República Oriental del Uruguay June 2020 Institutional Investor Presentation

Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

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Page 1: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

República Oriental del UruguayRepública Oriental del Uruguay

June 2020

Institutional Investor Presentation

Page 2: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Timeline of key recent political and economic developments

2

• March 1st, 2020: the new President Lacalle Pou takes office for a 5-year term,leading a five-party political coalition with majority in Congress.

• March 11th, 2020: Presidential decree introduces fiscal austerity measures,including expenditure cuts across Ministries.

• March 13th, 2020: first cases of COVID-19 reported in Uruguay; the Governmentdeclares sanitary emergency and launches swift policy response.

• April 16th, 2020: first Monetary Policy Committee of the new Central BankBoard, announcing enhancements to the monetary policy framework andcommunication strategy.

• April 23rd, 2020: Government submits to Congress a bill that includes keystructural reforms, including a new fiscal rule, changes to the governance ofstate-owned enterprises and a roadmap for pension reform.

• May 15th, 2020: Finnish company UPM and the Government signed an MoUconfirming commitment to ongoing construction of the pulp mill.

Page 3: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Government’s strategy for virus containment after Covid-19 onset in Uruguay

3

• To slow the spread of the virus, the Government did not enforce acountrywide lockdown or mandatory house confinement; rather, it trustedcitizens to adhere to voluntary social distancing and follow hygieneprotocols, by appealing to “individual freedom with social responsibility”.

• In parallel, the Government took early and decisive action and sealed offland borders, closed air traffic except to chartered repatriation flights,suspended all public events and school classes, limited visits to nursinghomes and encouraged citizens to stay home and telework.

• Effective coordinated response between public and private sector andscientific community:o strengthening the health care system and facilities, and medical equipmento extensive randomized testing and community tracing in outbreak areas

(border with Brazil, nursing homes) and in reopening sectors (e.g.construction, shopping centers).

o developing a roadmap for re-opening the economy in consultation withscientific experts and private sector representatives.

Page 4: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Bolivia

Ecuador

Panama

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

of i

nfe

cted

Lo

g sc

ale

(b

ase

10)

Days since first confirmed case

4

So far, Uruguay is holding up well in the face of adversity: contagion curves are flattening and death toll remains subdued…

Source: Johns Hopkins University; Our World in Data

Spread of infection Covid 19-related deaths per million

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Mexico

Panama

Peru

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

10-Mar 5-Apr 1-May 27-May

(As of June 16th, 2020) (As of June 16th, 2020)

Uruguay

Uruguay

16-Jun

As of June 19th, 2020, the number of active cases in Uruguay had dropped to 15 patients.

Page 5: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

…while ensuring an elevated number of daily tests and contact tracing protocols, enabling the country to react to potentially new

bouts in the near future

5

Share of daily Covid-19 tests that are positive(Rolling 7-day average, as of June 15th, 2020)

Source: Our World in Data

Uruguay

Page 6: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Government and the Central Bank implemented policymeasures to mitigate the economic and social fallout

6

• Income transfers to vulnerable households to coverfood expenses and basic needs.

• Targeted temporary deferrals in payroll, VAT and otherincome taxes, and partial reduction of mortgageobligations in state-owned mortgage bank.

• Expanded social safety net for unemployment andhealth insurance:

o more flexible terms for unemployment claims,allowing firms to place employees in part-timeschedules.

o provision of unemployment benefit to self-employed workers.

o Extensions of sick leave benefits for all workers65+ years old, in both the public and private sector.

Fiscal policy measures Credit and liquidity support

• State-owned development bank (BROU) introducedmore flexible loan repayment and financing terms.

• Capitalization of the National Guarantee System(SIGa) to leverage banking system loans to SMEs,reducing the commission charged by the guaranteesystem.

• The National Development Agency launched directcredit program for micro-entrepreneurs at subsidizedrates.

• The Central Bank deployed countercyclical monetarypolicy tools:

o reduced commercial banks´ local currencyreserve requirements to inject additional liquidityinto the financial system.

o eased bank regulations, authorizing financialinstitutions to defer companies´ loan paymentscoming due for up to 180 days.

Protect household income and human capital throughdirect income transfers, expanded unemployment andhealth insurance, tax relief and deferral of mortgageobligations.

Preserve the financial health and credit quality of micro,small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to ensurefunctioning payment systems and supply chains betweenproducers, suppliers, intermediaries and creditors.

Page 7: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Source: Central Bank of Uruguay

41,5

10,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

2001 2020*

18,1

1,4

0

5

10

15

20

2001 2020*

Deposits

Loans

1/ End-period; data for deposits includes only private non-financial sector

Banking system´s balance sheet exposure to Argentina(To the non-financial sector, % of total)1/

(*) As of April

7

20

25

30

35

40

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

2,0

Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19

Liquid assetsin % of total*

Nº of times the minimum

regulatory capital

Solvency and liquidity of the banking system

Banks’ strong capitalization and liquidity position supports credit measures of the Central Bank; no spillovers to

financial system from Argentina

(*) Liquid assets are those avaiilable within 30 days

Page 8: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Uruguay’s robust ESG features has underpinned steadfast response to the pandemic, yet there is no room for complacency

8Source: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Disclaimer: “Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The Index is used with permission. The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright 2020, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.”

0

1

2

3

4

5

Pan

ama

Qa

tar

Bra

zil

Per

u

Sau

di A

rab

ia

Kaz

akh

stan

Do

m.

Re

pu

blic

Om

an

Sou

th A

fric

a

Bah

rain

Egy

pt

Sri

Lan

ka

Gh

an

a

Co

sta

Ric

a

Ma

lays

ia

El S

alv

ador

Par

agua

y

Ken

ya

Kuw

ait

Lith

uan

ia

Bel

aru

s

Sen

ega

l

Co

te D

'Ivo

ire

Bol

ivia

Mo

rocc

o

Ga

bo

n

Arm

en

ia

Vie

tnam

Zam

bia

Ind

ia

Sur

ina

me

Bel

ize

Ang

ola

Eth

iopi

a

Ca

me

roon

Ge

org

ia

Uru

gu

ay

Uruguay

• Trustworthiness of institutions: Very highpublic compliance with voluntary quarantine andadherence to social distancing measures. Strongdemocratic tradition meant citizens trusted publicofficials´ guidance and health recommendations.

• Socially stable country with relatively lowinequality, low informality and a broad socialinsurance net: Efficient work of automaticstabilizers provide income and healthcaresupport, allowing Uruguayans to act on theircommitment to voluntary distancing with no civilunrest─ aided by the country´s low urbanpopulation density.

• Fiscal transparency and accountability andmature political system: Congress created byLaw the “COVID-19 Solidarity Fund” (votedunanimously by all parties), to be managed by theExecutive branch. The Fund clearly earmarks theresources and budgetary expenditures to addressthe emergency, keeping tabs of the Covid-relatedexpenditures and where and how the money isspent.

(Country weights for 73 countries, in %; as of April 30th, 2020)ESG-adjusted EMBI benchmark

Page 9: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

9Sources: 1/ Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank (2019); 2/ The Economist Intelligence Unit (2020); 3/ World Justice Project (2020); 4/ Verisk Maplecroft (first quarter of 2020); Transparency International (2020)

Uruguay remains a bastion of institutional, political and social stability in Latin America

Strongest political stability and full democracy 1/ 2/

0

20

40

60

80

100

URU CHL PAN ARG ECU PRY BOL PER BRA MEX COL

“Full Democracies”

Lowest civil unrest 4/

0

2

4

6

8

10

CHL MEX COL PRY ECU PER BRA ARG PAN URY

Lowest corruption perception 5/

Highest adherence to the rule of law 3/

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

URY CHL ARG PAN BRA COL PER ECU MEX BOL

0

20

40

60

80

PAR MEX BOL BRA PAN PER COL ECU ARG CHL URY

Page 10: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

10Source: International Labour Organization – Regional Office for Latin America and Caribean (2015); Social Security Bank, Ministry of Economy and Finance

Low informality and broad social safety net ensures efficient work of automatic stabilizers

(Contributors to social security system as % of workforce)

Labour market formality compared to Latam

• Given the COVID-19 containment measures, both sickness and unemployment insurance became a crucial policy instrument tobroadly and orderly cope with the health emergency and its fallout. Developed welfare system for working-age people in Uruguayconsists of near-universal access to healthcare, unemployment insurance, sickness insurance, and child and familiy benefits.

• The sharp increase in health insurance beneficiaries in March was mainly driven by the government's proactive policy of providing wagecompensation through sick leave to all elderly workers (over 65 years old) in the public and private sector, so that could stay at home.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

URY CHL BRA ARG PAN ECU COL MEX PER PRY BOL

1/ Latest data available through April 2020.

Unemployment and sickness insurance(In thousands)

(*) As of June 14th

20

30

40

50

60

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20

Jobless claims per month

Number of health insurance beneficiariesas of each month (left axis)

Jun-20*

Page 11: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

(Rolling 7-day, YoY change, in %)Fuel demand per day

Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance 11

Low and declining virus incidence has allowed for faster renormalization of business and social activities

(YoY change, in %)

Electricity demand per day

1-Mar 19-Mar 6-Apr 24-Apr 12-May 30-May-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30First Covid-19 cases

confirmed on March 13

16-Jun-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

1-Mar 19-Mar 6-Apr 24-Apr 12-May 30-May

First Covid-19 cases confirmed on March 13

16-Jun

Leading indicators suggest that economic downdraft may have bottomed-out, and a gradual recovery is underway:

Page 12: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

(Annual change, in %)

Real GDP

Sources: Central Bank of Uruguay; Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay

Challenges before Covid-19 outbreak: decelerating economy, persistent fiscal deterioration and increasing debt burden

12

Real gross fixed capital investment

0,2

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1*

Central Government debt(In % of GDP, end of period)

54,4

49,6

0

20

40

60

80

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1

Gross Debt

Net Debt

-1,7

-2,7

-4,4-5

-3

-1

1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Apr-20*

Primary Balance Interests Overall Balance

Central Government fiscal balance 1/

(In % of GDP)

1/ Does not Include inflows of funds to the Social Security Trust, of 1.2% of GDP

(*) Last 12 months

-1,4-2

0

2

4

6

8

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1*

(*) YoY (*) YoY

(Annual change, in %)

Page 13: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

The new government moved promptly on its pledge to tackle the fiscal deficit through expenditure cuts

13

Fiscal austerity measures introduced through a Presidential decree on March 11th, that have remained in place despite Covid-19:

• Reduction of discretionary spending and more efficient budgetexecution: ministries must save 15% on operating, investmentand administrative expenses.

• Restrictions on public sector hiring: only one third of personnelvacancies in the central government can be filled during theyear, except for teachers, health and security personnel.

• Reduction in tax expenditures: reduced VAT exemptions oncredit and debit cards purchases.

Page 14: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

The government is forging ahead with an ambitious reform agenda backed by political majority in Congress

14

Despite the Covid-19 outbreak, the Government moved forward andsubmitted to Parliament an omnibus bill (“Urgent Consideration Law”),including a spate of structural and fiscal reforms:

• new fiscal framework to ensure sustainable finances over the mediumterm: fiscal rule to account for business cycle (structural balance) andgovernment spending capped by potential GDP growth.

• new governance policies for public enterprises;

• establishment of a commission of experts to make proposals for acomprehensive pension reform;

• microeconomic reforms to boost potential GDP and improve businessclimate and competitiveness (changes in the regulatory framework forenergy markets and promotion of competition in non-tradable sectors).

Page 15: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

15

UrgentConsideration Law

Accountability Law: Fiscal Performance

Report for 2019

• Must be submitted to Congress by June 30th

• Draft bill containing the fiscal performance report for year 2019

• 90-day discussion (approx.)

2020-2025 Budget Law

• Must be submitted to Congress by August31st

• 120-day discussion(approx.)

Milestones and timing of political & budget process

• Submitted to Congress on April 23rd

• 90-day discussion(approx).

• Senate approved it on June 5th (of the 501 articlesproposed, 476 wereenacted). The Chamber of Representatives will have30 days to discuss it.

Page 16: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

11,1

9,9

2

4

6

8

10

12

May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

Inflationexpectation1/

Dic-20

First Covid-19 cases confirmed

on March 13

Inflation Target Band

(Annual, in %)

Headline Inflation

Source: National Institute of Statistics (INE); Central Bank of Uruguay

1/ Median expectation in Central Bank´s market survey as of May 2020

(Annual, in %)

Tradable and non-tradable inflation components1/

15,5

11,2

7,3

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

Tradables

Tradables without Beef

Non-Tradables

1/ Excluding fruits and vegetables, and administred prices

16

Inflation above target: shock to beef prices and FX depreciation pass-through partially offset by falling non-tradable inflation

Page 17: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Enhancements to monetary policy framework under the inflation targeting regime

17

• Once the epidemic recedes, the Central Bank will focus ondisinflation strategy as its overriding objective, planning to:o tighten monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations within

inflation target.

o re-assess the policy instrument with the possibility to revert to theshort term reference rate to improve signals to economic agents.

• Monetary authority`s commitment to break inflation expectationsinertia and new wage-setting guidelines for the private sectorthat prioritize employment creation, should reinforce disinflationpressures as softer economic activity cools down priceincreases.

Page 18: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

New communication strategy and developing the FX derivative markets

18

• In the Monetary Policy Committee in April, 2020, the CentralBank introduced innovations to its communication andtransparency strategy:

oDoubled the frequency of its Monetary Policy Committee(MPC) meetings to better react to rapidly evolving conditions.

o Started publishing minutes of the MPC to provide more clarity.

oRelaunch of the economic expectations survey, significantlyincreasing the number of respondents.

• Further actions to develop the FX derivative market: createrepository of OTC transactions to provide more transparency,availability and efficient price discovery on FX hedging markets.

Page 19: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

13,1

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Euro

Japanese Yen

Australian Dollar

Chilean Peso

New Zealand Dollar

Singapore Dollar

Chinese Renminbi

Malaysian Ringgit

Peruvian Sol

Indonesian Rupiah

Indian Rupee

Russian Ruble

Colombian Peso

Argentine Peso

Turkish Lira

Uruguayan Peso

Brazilian Real

Mexican Peso

19

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Jan-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20

Spot market interventions (inUSD millions)

Nominal exchange rate(pesos per dollar, right axis)

Dollar Purchases

Exchange rate and Central Bank FX intervention

Floating exchange as a shock absorber; Central Bank intervenes on both sides of the market to smooth out undue volatility

Dollar Sales

Source: Bloomberg; Central Bank of Uruguay

(Percent change since February 19th, as of June 16th, 2020)

Currency performance vs USD since Covid-19 world outbreak

Year-end market expectation 1/

1/ Median expectation in Central Bank´s market survey as of May 2020

Dic-20Apreciation

44.9

Depreciation

Page 20: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Source: Central Bank of Uruguay; International Monetary Fund 20

(In % of GDP, 2019)

International reserves compared to LatAm

15,9

29,2

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Apr-20

In USD billion in % of GDP (right axis)

(End-of-period)

International reserves

(In % of GDP, 2019)

Current account balance compared with Latam

0,7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

URY MEX ECU ARG PRY PER BRA BOL CHL COL PAN

Sizable international reserves are an important backstop for external stability and key policy anchor

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

PER URY PAR BRA COL BOL MEX CHL ARG PAN ECU

Page 21: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Source: https://www.upm.uy/crecimiento/; Ministry of Economy and Finance

Construction of new pulp mill

Largest-ever private investment in the country proceeding as scheduled: Uruguay poised to receive large FDI inflows

• Finnish company UPM will build a second cellulose plant in the country

• Overall investment: approx. USD 3 billion (5% of GDP)

• Will have a material positive impact on GDP growth, employment and Balance of Payments

• World-class design with proven high environmentalperformance

• UPM and the new Government of Uruguay have signed a MoU on pending items related to UPM’s growth project in Uruguay that will further strengthen the implementation of UPM's growth project and existing operations in the country as well as the local economy.

21

UPM IIUPM I

Railway infrastructure project

• Central Railway will run from city of Paso de los Toros to the port of Montevideo (273 km long)

• Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) modality

• USD 1,000 million investment

Page 22: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

FINANCING NEEDS 4,649

Amortization of Bonds and Loans 1,618

Interest Payments 1,529

Primary Deficit (a) 1,501

FUNDING SOURCES 4,649

Multilateral Loans 1,520

Domestic and External Bond Issuance 3,750

Net Others 128

Use of Assets (b) -750

Memo Item: Net Bond Issuance 2,132

1/ Projections.(a) Excludes extraordinary transfers to the public Social Security Trust Fund.(b) Negative figure indicates an accumulation of Central Government liquid assets.

22

(In USD million)

Flow of funds for 2020 1/

Central Government’s funding needs and financing strategies

Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Economy and Finance

Estimated overall deficit of 6,7% of GDP, given a projectedreal GDP contraction of 3% in 2020.

• For the rest of 2020, the Government will strive torebalance currency mix in international debt marketissuances: will aim to develop the global local currencycurve (in CPI-linked and/or nominal fixed-rate), to theextent that borrowing costs in local currency remainconsistent with sustainable debt dynamics and fiscalrestraint. Otherwise, does not rule out re-tappinginternational debt market in dollars.

Year-to-date: 43% (USD 1612 million) of total estimatedbond issuance for 2020 has been completed (throughdomestic auctions in local currency Treasury Notes).

Page 23: Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 22nd 2020 v1 · 8uxjxd\¶v urexvw (6* ihdwxuhv kdv xqghuslqqhg vwhdgidvw uhvsrqvh wr wkh sdqghplf \hw wkhuh lv qr urrp iru frpsodfhqf\

Government’s sizable international reserves and liquidity buffers mitigate risks to external debt sustainability; dollar credit spreads remain subdued

and clustered among higher-rated Latam peers

Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Economy and Finance; Bloomberg

(In USD million, as of end-May 2020)

Liquidity buffers and short term debt service obligations

23

(EMBI spread, in bps)

Change in sovereign risk premium since COVID-19 outbreak

URY

BRA

CHL

COL

MEX

PAN

PER

PRY

100

200

300

400

500

100 200 300 400 500

Jun

e 1

6, 2

020

February 19, 2020(pre-Covid 19)1/ Debt service includes amortization plus interest payments

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

Columna1 Columna2

Foreign Currency

Local Currency

LiquidAssets

Availableredit LinesfromMultilaterals

Liquidity bufferDebt service

over next 12 months

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24

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES IN ANY JURISDICTION OR AN INDUCEMENT TO ENTER INTO INVESTMENT ACTIVITY. THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY THE REPUBLIC OF URUGUAY (“URUGUAY”) SOLELY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION THAT IS MATERIAL TO AN INVESTOR. NO PART OF THIS PRESENTATION, NOR THE FACT OF ITS DISTRIBUTION, SHOULD FORM THE BASIS OF, OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER. THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT FINANCIAL, LEGAL, TAX OR OTHER PRODUCT ADVICE.

NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THE INFORMATION OR ANY OPINION CONTAINED HEREIN. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES PREVAILING AT THE TIME AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED TO REFLECT MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS THAT MAY OCCUR AFTER THE DATE OF THE PRESENTATION. NEITHER URUGUAY NOR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, AGENTS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, OFFICIALS OR ADVISORS SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS PRESENTATION OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS PRESENTATION.

The presentation may contain statements that reflect Uruguay’s beliefs and expectations about the future. These forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions about the future, some of which are beyond Uruguay’s control. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statements. Uruguay does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events that occur or circumstances that arise after the date of this presentation.

Disclaimer

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ANNEX

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Exports of services(In USD million)

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2019

Tourism Other/1

1/ Software, transport, logistics, maintenance, financial, personal and professional and consultancy services

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19

Real Depreciation

Real Appreciation

Real effective exchange rate vis-à-vis other countries and regions(Index base 100 = January 2017)

Source: Central Bank of Uruguay

Rest of the World

Argentina

Brazil

Overall

Apr-20

Economic pressures in Argentina have spilled through inbound tourism, yet exports of other services picked up some of

the slack

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Government`s proactive debt management strategy: reduce roll-over risk and FX exposure in short term debt

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Currency and maturity structure of Government debt(End-period)

57,6

14,4

6

9

12

15

0

25

50

75

100

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1

(in % of GDP)Debt in Foreign Currency (% of total)

Average Time to Maturity (in years, RHS)

Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Economy and Finance

Government debt maturing in next 12 months(in % of total of total debt outstanding, as of end of each period)

15.5

4.5

2005 2020Q1

Foreign Currency

Local Currency

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2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Moody's S&P Fitch

B2/B/B

B1/B+/B+

Ba3/BB−/BB−

Ba2/BB/BB

Ba1/BB+/BB+

Baa3/BBB-/BBB-

Baa2/BBB/BBB

Baa1/BBB+/BBB+

Investment Grade

Uruguay’s credit rating performance

Sources: Moody’s, S&P,R&I, DBRS and Fitch

Evolution of Uruguay’s sovereign credit ratings Latest credit rating actions

April 2020. Affirmed Uruguay's rating at BBB, outlook remained stable.

February 2020. Confirmed Uruguay´s rating at BBB- with Negative outlook.

February 2020. Affirmed Uruguay’s rating at BBB, and changed outlook to Positive from Stable.

January 2020. Confirmed Uruguay’s ratingat BBB (low) with Stable trend.

August 2019. Uruguay´s rating affirmed atBaa2 with Stable outlook.

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Uruguay has been widely recognized for the transformation of itsenergy matrix over the past decade away from fossil fuels, and is

often referred to as a global “Green Energy Leader”

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Hidroelectric50%

Wind30%

Solar3%

Fossil Fuel2%

Biomass15%

(In % of total, year 2019)

Electricity generation by source

Source: National Energetic Preliminary Balance 2019, Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining; The International Energy Agency

(In % of total)

Electricity generation by wind energy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

• Uruguay is 4th in the world in wind and solar generation, and 1st in Latin America

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Developing economies

Advanced economies

Top performer amongst developing economies in EnergyTransition Index: low air pollution and carbon footprint

30Source: World Economic Forum

(Ranking position)

Energy Transition Index (ETI) in 2020

Uruguay