URBAN FLOOD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BHOPAL, M.P., …iaeme.com/MasterAdmin/uploadfolder/IJCIET_10_01_258/IJCIET_10_01_258.pdf · ASSESSMENT OF BHOPAL, M.P., INDIA Dr. Rajshree

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 2956 [email protected]

International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 10, Issue 01, January 2019, pp. 2956–2977, Article ID: IJCIET_10_01_258

Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijmet/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=10&IType=1

ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316

© IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed

URBAN FLOOD VULNERABILITY

ASSESSMENT OF BHOPAL, M.P., INDIA

Dr. Rajshree Kamat

Senior Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture and Planning,

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

ABSTRACT

Bhopal, the city of lakes is one of the very beautiful and peaceful cities of India

with least vulnerability to natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, landslides etc. In

recent years residents of this city find themselves vulnerable to urban floods. Earlier

the rainy season in Bhopal used to be so pleasant that people used to take long trips in

the nearby areas by road just to enjoy the rains. Nowadays everyone wants to stay at

home to stay safe during rains to avoidor to combat problems. The floods are due to

natural factors such as heavy rainfall, high floods etc. Blocking of channels or

aggravation of drainage channels, improper land use, deforestation in headwater

regions, etc., are human factors. The focus of this study is mainly upon the urban

flooding scenarios. The paper is based on studying the physical and socio- economic

indicators causing urban floods and their impacts on the city of Bhopal. Bhopal has

been repeatedly subjected to stress and strains of sudden increase and decrease in

population. City being a highly urbanized Municipal area, has given many challenges

to be tackled through planning interventions. Urban floods are one of those

challenges. Bhopal city has no significant history of urban floods. But from last one

decade the city has been facing many situations of urban flooding during the monsoon

season. The un-even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization,

encroachment and filling of natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the

high-value urban land for buildings are the causes of urban flooding. Vulnerability is

the main construct in flood risk management. Variety of indicators can be introduced

to assess vulnerability therefore selection of more appropriate methodology is vital for

authorities. The more accepted assessing method could be used to assess and identify

the most vulnerable areas. This paper also includes a suitable framework to assess

problematic flood vulnerability in urban areas.

Key words: Urban floods, Climate change, Flood vulnerability assessment; Flood

control measures; Urban planning and development.

Cite this Article: Dr. Rajshree Kamat, Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of

Bhopal, M.P., India, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology 10(1),

2019, pp. 2956–2977.

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=10&IType=1

Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Bhopal, M.P., India


1. INTRODUCTION

Flooding in general and urban flooding in particular is not an unknown event in world and in

India. The un- even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization, encroaching

upon and filling up natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the high-value urban land

for buildings are the cause of urban flooding. Unregulated development in urban area makes

the people in developing countries to occupy the hazardous area, thus, making them

vulnerable to disasters (Kamat R. 2013)

Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. One of the most significant

aims of flood vulnerability assessment is to make a clear association between the theoretical

conceptions of flood vulnerability and the daily administrative process (Hajar Nasiri, 2016).

Gross domestic product (GDP) at risk of flooding in India, the world’s second-most

populous nation, may surge 10-fold by 2030 as cities expand and climate challenges worsen,

according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). A new online global flood-analyzing tool

developed by WRI and four Dutch research agencies showed India topped the list among

countries with population affected by river flooding on average each year (Chaudhary A.

2015). WRI ranked 163 countries by number of people impacted by river flooding. Led by

India, the 15 worst-hit accounted for almost 80% of the total population affected. Bangladesh

was a distant second, then China, followed by Vietnam, Pakistan and Indonesia, the tool

showed.

Annual economic losses from natural disasters have almost quadrupled in the past three

decades, the World Bank said in 2013. In particular, southeast Asia faces a notable increase in

risk, according to Hessel Winsemius, a researcher at Netherlands-based Deltares, one of the

project partners. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer estimates current and future potential

exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state,

country and major river basin in the world.

“In changing climate in particular, memory of historical floods from the last few years is

not a good estimation of what flood risks could be in the coming years,” said Erin Coughlan,

senior climate specialist for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “People need to

evaluate those risks and take action now instead of being surprised in the future.” (Chaudhary

A. 2015).

Climate change has played an important role in causing large-scale floods across central

India, including the Mumbai floods of 2006 and 2017. During 1901-2015, there has been a

three-fold rise in widespread extreme rainfall events, across central and northern India –

Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Assam

and parts of Western Ghats – Goa, north Karnataka and South Kerala (Roxy, M. K et al.,

2017) .The rising number of extreme rain events are attributed to an increase in the

fluctuations of the monsoon westerly winds, due to increased warming in the Arabian Sea.

This results in occasional surges of moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the

subcontinent, resulting in heavy rains lasting for 2–3 days, and spread over a region large

enough to cause floods. (Roxy, M. K et al., 2017) (Simpkins, Graham, 2017).

2. FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS OF MADHYA PRADESH

As per the State Disaster Management Authority of Madhya Pradesh, With respect to floods,

Madhya Pradesh State of India has been divided in to ten river basins. These river basins are

Mahi, Chambal, Kuwari Sindh, Betwa, Dhasan & Ken, Tons, Son, Waniganga, Tapti and

Narmada as can be seen in Fig. 1 & Fig. 2.

doi:%2010.5176/2301-394X_ACE13.90%20Authors:%20Dr.%20Rajshree%20Kamat

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


Figure 1 River Basins of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018)

Figure 2 River Basins of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018)

In last 25 years, 36 flood affected districts of Madhya Pradesh have faced floods for 6 to

11 years, as can be seen in Fig. 3.

Figure 3 Flood affected districts of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018)



This data as well as experience of last 40-50 years or more shows least vulnerability of

South of Bhopal district towards natural floods because of the rivers.

Analysis has been made using the historical IMD gridded daily temperature (maximum and minimum) and

rainfall data from 1951-2013 (63 years) for the districts of Madhya Pradesh (UNDP, 2017). The amount of

rainfall received has been slightly decreasing over Madhya Pradesh whereas this rainfall has been received in

fewer days over the period. Both of these trends have huge implications in terms of more severe floods, failure of

rain-fed crops, lesser groundwater recharge, enhanced soil erosion, etc. (UNDP, 2017). Projected Climate -

RCP4.5 (low), RCP8.5 (high) (near term: 2021-2050; long term: 2071-2100). Projected extreme events: Heavy

rainfall, heat waves, floods and drought are likely to increase in future and will become increasingly important

and will play a more significant role in disaster management (UNDP, 2017).

3. ABOUT THE STUDY AREA: BHOPAL

Bhopal is located in the central part of India, witnessing rapid urban development and

industrialization. Bhopal's 2018 population is now estimated at 2,254,000. In 1950, the

population of Bhopal was 100,000. Bhopal has grown by 152,000 since 2015, which

represents a 2.35% annual change. These population estimates and projections come from the

latest revision of the UN World Urbanization Prospects. These estimates represent the urban

agglomeration of Bhopal, which typically includes Bhopal's population in addition to adjacent

suburban areas.

City of Bhopal lies in the southern part of the district, and the majority of the population

resides within Bhopal municipality. Bhopal has been repeatedly subjected to stress and strains

of sudden increase and decrease in population. After independence, the rehabilitation of

migrant population and establishment of BHEL added to the sharp increase in the population

during the post independence era.

Fast urbanization in Bhopal during last four decades is resulting in increase in paved area

and decrease in the agricultural land, which used to act as a percolation zone which is

continuously depleting. Further, poor planning, urban sprawl, encroachments and illegal

construction, poorly designed and maintained storm water drains and inadequate solid waste

management resulting into choking and blockages in the drains. Unplanned urbanization and

poor management are therefore the main factors behind flooding in urban areas. As per the

National Disaster Management Authorities (NDMA) guideline, the imperviousness and

concretization in urban areas increases the flood peaks to 1.8 to 8 times and flood volumes up

to 6 times. Mostly the slums and squatter dwellers and lower income groups are more

vulnerable to urban floods as they tends to live in informal settlements with limited or no

provision for housing due to regional disparities. Figure 4 and Figure 5 shows Newspaper

clippings of 18th July 2018of urban flood in Bhopal and some water logged areas because of

4.5 inches of rains in 5 hours.

https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


Figure 4 Newspaper clippings of 18th July 2018of urban flood in Bhopal

Figure 5 Hamidia Road Water logged and Mahamai Ka Bagh Area : The Drainage System is

Overflowed

The problems due to vulnerability of rapidly growing cities to urban flooding increases

with the imperviousness the pace with which urban areas grows increases the imperviousness

that results in decreasing infiltration and percolation rate of water into the ground. the

unplanned urbanisation experienced by the urban areas and the inadequate storm water drains

within the city to carry run-off water and solid waste management is aggreviated by the lack

of coordination and integration among institutions responsible for managing city. Urban

flooding has now become a challenge to urban planners and policy makers for making cities

more resilient to urban floods. This emerging issue of urban flooding must be addressed



through various planning strategies to guide the urban development and make cities more

resilient against urban flooding. Therefore there is need of the study to understand the factors

and to quantify the vulnerability of urban areas due to unplanned and unrealised development.

A detailed literature review was carried out to comprehend the critical issues regarding urban

flooding and for identifying factors responsible for it. Literature review also guided in

understanding the substantial findings through theoretical and methodological contributions to

a particular topic. It was observed after reviewing different case examples from different

context that there are metrological, hydrological and human induced factors which are

responsible for the huge devastations in urban areas during rainy seasons. Strategies from

various best practices were also reviewed to understand the mitigation measures which are

adopted by different cases. Bhopal city has been selected to conduct the study on the basis of

four selection criteria’s; undulating topography; well distributed rainfall pattern; rapid

urbanisation in terms of built up and population in 2 decades; and the past three events of

severe inundation of the city in last decade. First being very recent on 17th

July 2018, 4.5

inches of rains in 5 hours, second Bhopal gets 297.4 mm in 24 hrs by 5.30 pm on, July 9,

2016, breaking the record earlier one was 275.7mm on July 22, 1973. (SANDRP, 2016) in the

year 2006 Bhopal received 29cms of rain in a span of 5 hours in the month of August. Water

filled to as high as three to four feet in about 15 low lying areas of Bhopal. First stage of the

assessment shows that the 2006 event was the extreme event of heavy rainfall in which city

had received 54 percent of excess rainfall. The physical infrastructure of the city fails to cope

up the additional rate of runoff from paved surfaces and results in the affectation of 17 percent

of the total Bhopal’s population and 26 people were reported as died and 8728 houses were

partially or completely damaged during the event. Govindpura area was identified as the most

affected area within the city. Next event was recently happened in July – August 2016 in

which city had received 17 percent of excess rainfall and the destructions were as similar as

2006. Total 40 thousand people got affected and 5 – 6 people lost their lives as per the news

reports and around 8519 houses are affected during the event. Old Bhopal and Govindpura

area was identified as the most affected areas in the 2016 event. Recently in July and August

2018 Torrential rains battered Bhopal on claiming many lives overnight. Life in Bhopal was

thrown completely out of gear with houses in old as well as parts of the city flooded.

3.1. Reasons for urban flooding

Disasters can result in failed development, but failures in development planning can also lead

to disaster risk. (Kamat R. , 2015) Despite spending a huge amount on urban infrastructure

and planning over the years, the question emerges why Bhopal still remains susceptible to

waterlogging within a few hours of heavy showers. If the damage is assessed before the

occurrence of a disaster, measures can be taken beforehand to minimise the damages (Kamat

R. 2009). The following are the reasons identified for urban flood in the city:

City’s Geographical Character

Bhopal slopes towards north and southeast.

Hillocks of different altitudes are situated along the southwest and northwest parts of the

urban area.

Forming a continuous belt from the Singarcholi up to the Vindhyachal, to an elevation of

625 metres.

Dense Urban Growth in the City

Putting more burdens on the low- lying area.

Due to slopes in Bhopal, rainwater water flows fast towards low-lying areas, creating

waterlogging and flooding.

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


Population density has been increases from 665 to 855 people per sq. km.

Unauthorized development in the peripheral areas.

Source: Bhopal Development Plan, 2005

Figure 6 Growth of the city and direction of growth sprawl period area

Inadequate sewerage and Storm water drainage

Nearly two-thirds of city does not have a proper sewerage system, especially in the peripheral

areas.

The city’s closed drains reach only 28-30 percent of its population.

The sewerage system in New Bhopal (the state capital) area is almost 40 years old. The

system operates through a 108-km sewer line

There is no storm water drain network for the entire city.

The BMC has drawn up a 2,200 crore detailed project report for setting up a sewerage

network and a 1,200 crore for setting up a storm water drain network. But both the mega-

projects are yet to get operational on ground

Water logging

The existing drainage system is stifled by encroachments, which create bottlenecks in nallahs,

leading to waterlogging and flooding every year.

Absence of integrated sewerage or storm water drainage network in the city.

Source: Based on data received from Bhopal Municipal Corporation, 2005-06

Development alters natural systems as vegetation and open spaces are replaced with new

areas of impervious surfaces such as roads, parking lots, roofs, and turf, which greatly reduce

infiltration and thus ground water recharge. Uncontrolled storm water runoff develops into

Floods. (Sheetal Sharma, 2013)

4. AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Before we discuss the Aim and Objectives of this paper, few research questions have been

prepared to reach till the objectives of our study:

What are the factors influencing the flood risk in the study area, including Land use/Land

cover type?

How those factors can become a set of indicators, which can be used as a tool for flood risk

analysis so that we can assess the most vulnerable zone of the city?

Which conceptual framework can be used to capture, analyse and assess the flood risk in

growing urban areas of the city?

What physical and socio- economic measures could be taken to decrease the flood risk in the

most vulnerable area?



4.1. Aim

Aim being Urban flood vulnerability assessment of Bhopal. Objectives

To study the Socio- economic and environmental parameters of the city along with factors

influencing the urban flood risk.

To prepare a set of Vulnerability indicators from the identified factors.

To assess the identified vulnerability indicators through a suitable framework in the city.

To give physical proposals and planning provisions for the most vulnerable area.

4.2. Methodology

The study was conducted in five stages (Kamat R. 2017), (i) Topic Selection, and also the

theme of the journal given, (ii) Literature Review was further divided in two parts where, the

first one was Base line literature review (the need of the study and the problems were

identified) and another was Detailed literature review (understanding vulnerability concept

and the types of assessment methods). (iii) Indicator development and evaluation of indicators

based on expert survey, (iv) Suitability of indicators and finding the most vulnerable zone and

(v) Suggestive measures & Recommendations.

A methodology that uses indicators derived from geo-data and census data to analyze the

vulnerability to floods in a dense urban setting. A research framework will be developed to

assess and to identify problematic areas, for example, areas with a high number of people

exposed or areas with unfavorable usage.

The study will show that variables referring to the physical exposure of the affected

population are ranked as much more important for the present case than social characteristics,

such as age and gender, which again underlines the suitability of the selected method.

5. LITERATURE REVIEW

5.1. Vulnerability concept

Study aims to develop a framework for flood vulnerability assessment using a set of

indicators to identify the most vulnerable area within the city.

(Vulnerability= Exposure+ Sensitivity- Resilience)

Vulnerability covers variety characteristics of risk such as social, environmental physical

and economic.

Vulnerability may be defined as “Vulnerabilities must always be assessed in relation to a

specified threat (or hazard): which groups of people are vulnerable to what and why.” (IFRC,

1996)

Table 1 An overview of concept of Vulnerability

Source Definition

United nations

(1982)

Vulnerability is a degree of damage to a certain objects at flood risk

with specified amount and present in a scale from 0 to 1 (no damage to full damage)

Cannon (1994) People’s conditions and their social, political and economic behaviors

in the face of risks provide different degrees of vulnerability

Menoni and

Pergalani (1996)

Vulnerability term is damage goods, people, buildings, infrastructures and activities in hazard condition

Alexander (2002) The vulnerability of people and things to losses attribute to a certain amount of danger and probability that it will visible in a special

condition and with a certain degree

UNDP (2004) Vulnerability is a condition which is influenced by physical, social,

economic and environmental factors that raises the susceptibility of

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


Source Definition people to the hazard impact

Wisner (2004) The characteristics of an individual or group of people and their condition that affect their ability to predict, tackling, struggle, and

recover from the effects of environmental threats

Adger (2006) Susceptibility to harm from exposure to pressures related with environmental and social changes, and in lack of adaptation ability

Næss (2006) A function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, generated by

multiple factors and processes

Balica and Wright

(2010)

Vulnerability is defined with interaction between Exposure, susceptibility and resilience of each community in risk condition

Borden et al.

(2007)

Distinct vulnerability means potential or sensitivity to losses or harm. Social vulnerability contains the susceptibility of society or social

groups to potential losses from hazards

Source: (Hajar Nasiri, 2016)

5.2. Urban floods

In urban regions there are multiple types of floods that can occur: costal flooding, riverine

flooding, flash floods, urban floods, and drainage system floods. Urban flooding is a growing

environmental concern in cities. Accordingly, urbanization has a significant influence on

flood behavioral changes in urban areas. The scenario study is the basic ingredient for

development of disaster management plan for vulnerable area (Kamat R. , 2007)

Consequences of Urban Flooding

Urban Floods results in stagnation of water on roads, railway tracks and in few cases even at

airports because of the inadequate storm water drainage capacity. This results in traffic jams

and traffic diversions resulting in loss of man-hours.

Communication ‐ Urban Floods results in stagnation of water on roads, railway tracks and in

few cases even at airports because of the inadequate storm water drainage capacity.

Economical – As communications is disrupted industrial production gets hampered. Prices of

essential commodities shoot up.

Social – There is a psychological stress as safe returns of family members are not sure.

Schools and colleges get closed. Displacement of population in low-lying areas and collapsed

structures generally meet stiff resistance.

Environmental – Water bodies get polluted. Waste disposal gets hampered due to traffic

disruption.

Health ‐The stagnation of water, pollution of potable water and accumulation of waste at

dustbins result in epidemics.

(ENVIS, 2015)

5.3. Urban flood vulnerability factors

All societies are vulnerable to floods, under different cases and situations, which make them

somewhat unique; understanding the distinctions amongst them, may help to plan ahead and

provide policy ideas to improve the quality of people living in them. Vulnerability assessment

is done on the basis of this equation: (Vulnerability= Exposure+ Susceptibility- Resilience)

Source: (UNESCO-IHE)

Exposure is defined as the predisposition of a system to be disrupted by a flooding event due

to its location in the same area of influence. (UNESCO-IHE)



Susceptibility is defined as the elements exposed within the system, which influence the

probabilities of being harmed at times of hazardous floods. (UNESCO-IHE)

The capacity of a system to endure any perturbation, like floods, maintaining significant levels

of efficiency in its social, economical, environmental and physical components. (UNESCO-

IHE)

Figure 7 Flood vulnerability Factors

5.4. Vulnerability assessment methods

Before steps can be taken to reduce risk and vulnerability, they must first be understood

(Kamat R. 2017). Vulnerability assessments and risk analyses allow for the identification of

areas of critical concern and help to guide mitigation efforts.

There are a variety of vulnerability assessment methods, which are different in their

vulnerability description, theoretical framework, variables and methodology (Hajar Nasiri,

2016). According to earlier works vulnerability assessment methods can be categorized in

four distinct groups, which are given below:

Table 2 Vulnerability assessment methods

Method Vulnerability

index system

Vulnerability

index system

Disaster

loss data Model

Charact-

eristics

-Commonly

used in flood

vulnerability

studies

-Pertain to

complex indices

and weighting of

their subjective

•Is founded on

real damage

investigation

•Should be fairly

precise

•Takes a lot of

time and

resource

•Not valid for

other areas

Simple

Imprecise

•Low

validity in

data

shortage

condition

•Intelligible

for public

Source: (Nasiri, 2013)

This research will be based on the vulnerability Index System. The rationale behind

selecting this method is explained in the next section.

5.5. Flood vulnerability assessment through indicators

Vulnerability indicator method, which adapted to use available data for providing a logical

Image of the place vulnerability. This method is widely used in flood vulnerability studies and

preferred by policy makers for its clarified vulnerability image over space, a depiction which

aims to priorities measures and plan for the risk response in specified region. (Nasiri, 2013)

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


This group of methods depends on complicated indices with and without weighting; however,

these methods also faced with considerable complexities related with standardization,

weighting and aggregation methods.

Uncertainty is one more struggle with this method. Since each additive layer includes a

diverse variable, struggle about variable Interdependencies must be fixed.

The best pro- posed solution for this concern is weighting variables to reduce their impact in

forming a final expression (Lein 2010).

Indicator based method does not measure flood risk directly, but contribute to evaluating

flood risk. (Nasiri, 2013)

5.6. Data collection and analysis

Research process includes processing of data to make inference. Analysis at different stages

includes primary as well as secondary data. All the information is segregated into two

components on the basis of physical and social parameters. Primary data was collected

through survey process (Kamat R. 2017). Expert interviews and site visits were the source of

primary data.

Data collection would be done ward wise because of the availability of data and the

analysis would be done zone wise because of the scale of urban floods. (Figure 4) Urban

floods leave the impact on large scale and are the consequence of nearby areas.

Figure 8 Map showing Zone and Ward wise Division of city Bhopal

Since, the focus of this study to develop the framework for urban flood vulnerability

assessment to identify the most vulnerable area. Data collection and analysis would be

divided into two key tasks. First is to collect the indicator related data and than identifying the

most vulnerable area, where as the second is finding the loopholes within the vulnerable areas

through site survey, expert interviews and HH survey

6. INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT

A range of widely-accepted relevant characteristics and indicators are being presented in

literature, the actual conditions that determine flood vulnerability are to a certain degree very

site-specific, location, and hazard-dependent. To some extent these indicators can also be

classified into social and physical parameters. Given below the list of parameters compiled in



the table which were selected through relevant literature review and field surveys and expert

interviews (Kamat R. 2017).

Thus, Based on literature review social and physical parameter were identified. Thus

vulnerability factors were collected from secondary sources. Literature was also useful for

other Secondary information. Maps were required for spatial information as well as for

identifying.

These indicators (responsible for urban flood vulnerability fit the local conditions and the

flood characteristics best. At the same time, data for their assessment are available. (Table 4).

6.1. Data Checklist

Based on the set of indicators prepared in the above section a checklist was prepared listing

the sources of the data Collection and also the methodology the indicator can be assessed for

identifying the most vulnerable zone. (Table 5)

Apart from these, there was more information to be collected for identifying the most

vulnerable zone. A questionnaire was prepared for the zonal officers and the population

living in the locality asking about their experience with floods and if yes then what was the

duration of flood, how much time did it take to recover.

Also the information was collected regarding the quality of infrastructure they have in

their zones like water supply, drainage, sanitation, hospitals, schools etc., knowledge about

the flood hazards, and it’s protection measures. The analysis of indicators will help us to

identify the most vulnerable zones and the major issues of that area, which would play a

major role in deciding the direction of suggestions and recommendations.

Table 3 Selection of parameters relevant for the flood vulnerability in the urban area

No. Physical

parameter Relevance Indicators Reference

PHYSICAL VARIABLES

1

Main construction

material for roof,

walls and floor

Determines the physical fragility towards flood events

and indicates the resistance to damage and also the

social status

Some types of construction material allow humidity to

remain in the walls or floor after flood events which

can lead to health problems

i) Percentage of

household with Kutcha

roof

Schneiderbaue

r (2007);

Taubenbock

(2007);

ii) Percentage of


wall

iii) Percentage of


floor

iv) Percentage of

household with Pucca

floor

2 Condition of

household

People that live in houses with poor condition shows

much higher exposure to the floods

Number of households

in delipiated condition

to the number of total

households

Schneider

Bauer (2007)

3 Landuse

Rapid industrial, commercial and economic growth

promoted flooding with excess rainfall due to the total

impervious cover of the area.

The higher the amount of green spaces in an area, the

higher the retention potential and the lower the flood

hazard

i) Built up v/s Open

UNESCO-IHE

Stow et al.

(2007) ii) Proportion of green

spaces

4 Topography

Topographical elements influence land use and

drainage network elements. Topography changes on

flood parameters, such as maximum flood discharge

and time to peak.

Elevation (in meters) UNESCO-IHE

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


5 Inundation areas Closeness of inundation areas is always a threat for the

people living overt here in case of heavy rainfall.

Proximity to

inundation areas UNESCO-IHE

6 Soil type

Type of soil in terms of percolation of water from the

surface is a major factor of concern in urban flooding.

It largely depends on the built-up cover of the area.

Porosity of the soil UNESCO-IHE

7 Ground water

level

Higher the ground water table is considered to be a

danger for urban areas. Water level reaches the surface

quite early in case of heavy rainfall.

Ground water

prospects

UNESCO-IHE

SOCIAL VARIABLES

5 Population

Because of large amount of people, more materials are

needed, like wood, land, food, etc. This aggravates

overgrazing, over cultivation and soil erosion, which

increases the risk of flooding.

Population Density UNESCO-IHE

6 Age

The young and the elderly people are vulnerable to

natural hazards both because of their physical condition

and their financial dependence.

Population below 6

years

Schneiderbaue

r (2007); Haki

et al. (2004);

7 Gender

Women are generally described as more vulnerable to

natural hazards than men because of their stronger

involvement in family life, sector-specific jobs and

lower wages

Sex ratio

Wisner et al.

(2004); Haki et

al. (2004

8 Number of

Households

The higher the household size, the lower the social

status and the higher the amount of people affected and

therewith the damage

Household size

Haki et al.

(2004);

Cutter et al.

(2003)

9 Level of education

Strong relation to income and social status contributes

to a better knowledge about natural extreme events and

their origins

Illiterate population to

the total population

Schneiderbaue

r (2007);

Velasquez

9 Employment

status

Indicates the regularity of income and therewith the

possibilities of a household to save money for flood

mitigation measures or to cope with negative affects.

Non working

population to the total

population

Dwyer et al.,

2004)

Table 4 Data source and methodology applied for the derivation of information

No. Indicators Data Source Methodology

PHYSICAL INDICATORS

1 Percentage of household

with Kutcha roof Census, 2011

Calculated the Number of total households in the zone made with

material, which are considered to be Kutcha for the construction of

roofs of the buildings. The percentage of Kutcha roof houses out of the

total number households was calculated


with Kutcha wall Census, 2011 Similar as above


with Kutcha floor Census, 2011 Similar as above


with Pucca floor Census, 2011 Similar as above

5 Number of households in

delipiated condition Census, 2011 Similar as above

6 Built up v/s Open

Bhopal

Development plan

2005

Digitizing the landuse map of 2005 and than calculating the

percentage of built up cover to the total area of the zone.

7 Proportion of green

spaces

Bhopal

Development plan

2005

Digitizing the landuse map of 2005 and than calculating the

percentage of green cover to the total area of the zone.

8 Elevation (in meters) Bhuvan (DEM) Preparing the contour map in ArcGIS.

9 Proximity to inundation

areas

Bhopal

Development plan

2005 and media

coverage

Overlaying the map of inundation areas one over the overlaying the

zonal map of Bhopal.

10 Porosity of the soil Land use map Depends on the percentage of built up area present in the zone. More



2005

(built up area)

Bhopal DP

built up reduces the porosity of the soil.

11 Ground water prospects Bhopal Municipal

Corporation 2005

Digitizing the ground water prospect map in GIS and than overlaying

it with zonal map of Bhopal.

12 Drainage pattern Bhuvan (DEM) Preparing the drainage map in ArcGIS.

SOCIAL VARIABLES

13 Population Density

(person per hectare) Census, 2011 Total population divided by the area of the zone.

14 Population below 6 years Census, 2011 Calculating the percentage of below 06 years to the total population of

the zone

15 Sex ratio Census, 2011 Number of female population to the male population.

16 Household size Census, 2011 Total Population to the number of household of the zone

17 Illiterate population to the

total population Census, 2011

The relative proportion of the sum of all people belonging to the

illiterate group to the total population of the zone.

18 Non working population

to the total population Census, 2011

The relative proportion of the sum of all people belonging to the non-

working group to the total population of the zone.

6.2. Analysis for weighing the indicator

A sensitivity analysis was carried out for identifying the weights of the most relevant

indicators based on the evaluation of the experts (Kamat R. 2017). The experts were asked to

rank the indicators on the scale of 1-5. The zone officers were also asked to rank the

indicators just to make them aware and know about their knowledge in the field of urban

flooding. It was observed that the physical indicators got the highest ranks as compared to the

social indicators because physical indicators are the urban flood driving factors whereas social

indicators and variables plays a minor role in causing the situations of urban flooding. The

table given below is the compilation and analysis of all the indicators ranked according to the

experts. (Table VI)

Table 5 Analysis of weighing with respect to urban flooding

Rank I II III IV V

PHYSICAL VARIABLES

1) Percentage of household with Kutcha

roof


wall


floor

4) Percentage of household with Pucca

floor

5) Number of households in delipiated

condition to the number of total households

6) Built up v/s Open

7) Proportion of green spaces

8) Elevation (in meters)

9) Proximity to inundation areas

10) Less Porosity of the soil

11) Ground water prospects

12) Drainage pattern

SOCIAL VARIABLES

13) Population Density (person per

hectare)

14) Population below 6 years

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


Rank I II III IV V

15) Sex ratio

16) Household size

17) Illiterate population to the total

population

18) Non working population to the total

population

Source:Expert survey

These experts were from the disaster management institute, EPCO (Environmental

Planning and Coordination Organization), MANIT (Department of Architecture and

Planning).

The indicators were ranked in respect to the urban flooding, like in the case of seasonal

flooding indicators do not play a major role because the seasonal floods are very prompt and

may have a huge impact on urban areas. But when we talk about urban floods, these are

highly influenced by the indicators given above and every indicator has its own significance

in causing floods.

Suitability of indicators in the framework (Identifying the most vulnerable zone The data

was collected ward wise and grouped together as zones for the analysis of the framework.

This framework comprises comparison of all the 14 zones w.r.t to each zone. The comparison

is depicted in the form of graphs and maps, later through the preparation of maps ranking of

each zone was done on the scale of 1-5 has been done, where 5 is most vulnerable and 1 is

least vulnerable. Data was entered into excel sheet, which was later linked to GIS and the

maps were generated for each indicator.

Zone getting the highest value depending on the vulnerability was ranked as of highest

vulnerability (5). The same process was repeated for individual indicators.

7. ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK

In this section comparison of each zone has been done as per their degree of vulnerability

(Kamat R. 2017). Each zone was ranked on the scale of 1 to 5 for each indicator. Rank 5 is

given to the most vulnerable zone for a particular indicator and rank 1 is for the least

vulnerable zone.

5 4 3 2 1

Most

vulnerable Moderate

Least vulnerable

Weightage given by the experts has also been considered as visible in the table VII. The

values are put in the formula as given below:

where, VI is vulnerability index, vi is rank given by maps generated on GIS and qi is the

weightage given by the experts.



Table 6 Ranking of the zones and weightage given to various indicators

S.

No. FINAL INDICATORS

Zone

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1

4 WEIGHTAG

E (qi)

1 Household Condition: Delipiated

Households 4 5 4 2 3 3 3 2 2 4 1 5 2 4 5

2 Percentage of household with Kutcha roof 2 4 4 2 5 2 4 5 3 5 2 4 3 3 4

3 Percentage of household with Kutcha wall 3 3 3 2 4 3 3 5 3 4 1 3 4 3 3

4 Percentage of household with Kutcha floor 2 4 3 4 5 4 4 2 5 3 5 1 1 3 1

5 Percentage of household with pucca floor 4 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 2 1 2 4 5 4 5

6 Landuse (Built up area %) 5 1 4 4 5 3 3 4 3 5 5 1 3 2 1

7 Landuse (Proportion of green area) 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 5 5 4 4 2 3 5

8 Elevation: Highest elevation is ranked as

lowest 5 3 1 1 5 2 2 4 3 4 2 3 3 3 3

9 Inundation areas (Proximity to inundation

area) 4 3 5 1 4 5 5 5 3 5 1 3 1 1 1

10 Soil (Porosity) 5 1 5 5 5 1 1 5 5 5 5 1 5 1 1

11 Population (Population Density) 5 1 4 4 5 2 3 4 4 5 3 2 2 2 2

12 Age (population below 6 years) 1 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 1 3 3 3 5

13 (Gender) Female Population 1 1 5 3 5 4 3 3 4 3 5 3 3 3 2

14 Number of households (Household size) 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 4

15 Level of education (Illiterate population) 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 1 3 2 2 5

16 Employment status (non working

population) 1 1 3 4 4 4 1 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 4

Putting these value in the formula separately as discussed above we obtain a following

framework through excel. (Table VIII

Table 7 Ranking of the zones and weightage given to various indicators

S.

No.

ZONE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1

0 11

1

2 13 14

FINAL INDICATORS

1 Household Condition: Delipiated

Households 20 16 8 12 12 12 8 8 16 5 20 6 16 20

2 Percentage of household with Kutcha roof 8 8 4 10 4 8 10 6 10 4 8 5 6 8

3 Percentage of household with Kutcha wall 9 9 6 12 9 9 15 9 12 4 9 7 9 9

4 Percentage of household with Kutcha floor 8 6 8 10 8 8 4 10 6 7 2 3 6 2

5 Percentage of household with pucca floor 4 12 12 8 12 12 16 8 4 6 16 9 16 20

6 Landuse (Built up area %) 5 20 20 25 15 15 20 15 25 1

0 5 8 10 5

7 Landuse (Proportion of green area) 12 12 12 12 4 4 8 20 20 8 16 6 12 20

8 Elevation: Highest elevation is ranked as

lowest 15 5 5 25 10 10 20 15 20 7 15 8 15 15

9 Inundation areas (Proximity to inundation

area) 12 20 4 16 20 20 20 12 20 5 12 5 4 4

10 Soil (Porosity) 5 25 25 25 5 5 25 25 20 1

0 5

1

0 5 5

11 Population (Population Density) 5 20 20 25 10 15 20 20 25 8 10 7 10 10

12 Age (population below 6 years) 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 4 3 5

13 (Gender) Female Population 1 5 3 5 4 3 3 4 3 6 3 4 3 2

14 Number of households (Household size) 12 9 12 15 9 6 6 9 12 4 3 5 6 12

15 Level of education (Illiterate population) 6 6 8 8 6 4 6 6 8 3 6 4 4 10

16 Employment status (non working

population) 1 3 4 4 4 1 5 4 4 3 2 4 3 4

Total value: 126 17

9

15

5

21

6

13

5

13

4

18

9

17

5

20

9

9

2

13

5

9

5

12

8

15

1

PH

YSIC

AL

IND

ICA

TOR

S SO

CIA

L IN

DIC

.

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


Figure 9 Comparison of zones

In the above chart depicts the number of times a particular zone has been ranked with the

degree of vulnerability.

Zone number 4 and 9 has the highest rank of vulnerability out of which zone number 9

has been ranked with the degree 4 and 5 the maximum times. 7 out 16 indicators have been

ranked with degree 5 and 6 with the degree of 4. Also zone number 9 overlaps with the flood

affected areas during the floods of 2006 and 2016.

Hence, considering all the aspects and comparison of indicators zone 9 has been identified

as the most vulnerable zone. The most vulnerable zone has been identified and now the

loopholes in that particular zone will be discussed and the suitable suggestions and

recommendations would be given for the zone.

7.1. Brief introduction to most vulnerable zones (zone 4 & 9)

Urban floods can be prevented with the help of adequate physical planning and emergency

measures through flood.

Management, it can often reduce their disastrous consequences. Inceptions of any flood

management normally begin after a major flood event. People always have some other

priorities until a major disaster happens.

So, to avoid such hazardous situations measures shall be taken at the administrative level,

community level and even at the household level. Mitigation planning is always about taking

care of the present with the past experiences and future projections.

Here, in this case zone number 4 and 9 were identified as the most vulnerable zones. To

understand the root causes of urban flooding in these areas site visits and field surveys were

carried out. People living in the core problematic areas within the zone were asked about the

issues they have been facing and what changes do they want in their living and their

surrounding for a better environmental conditions.

Since, there are more areas facing the some problem but zone number 4 & 9 getting the

highest weightage are considered to be the standard cases for the worst conditions of urban

flooding. The further sections will give a brief profile of both the zones.

Both the zone lie adjacent to each other situated in the north of upper lake and lower lake

as well the city Bhopal. These zones are known for their ancient history and cultural values

because of the zones are few of the oldest and most congested areas of the city.

0

50

100

150

200

250

ZONE

1ZONE

2

ZONE

3

ZONE

4

ZONE

5

ZONE

6

ZONE

7ZONE

8

ZONE

9

ZONE

10

ZONE

11

ZONE

12

ZONE

13

ZONE

14

ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK:

Comparison of zones

Total value after putting the values in framework



Source: MPUIIP GIS BASE Map Bhopal

Figure 10 Location of vulnerable zones

The development activities has been happening since a very long time so there is no

proper planning of the buildings and other infrastructure like sewerage, drainage, water

supply, electricity etc. Zone 4 consists half of the old walled city of Bhopal, the area is itself

known as “old city”. Other major old areas in the zones are Ghora Nakkas, Itwara, Hamedia

hospital, maha mai ka bagh, aish bagh etc. Zone 9 is popular for having one field hockey

stadium in the Aish bagh area, which is known as Aishbagh stadium. Figure 6, shows the

location and the major Landmarks of both the zones.

7.2. Vulnerable areas within the zones

Figure 11 Vulnerable areas within zones

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


The zone 4 and 9 are identified as the vulnerable zones in the case of urban floods, but

even in the zones we have the most critical areas having very poor conditions and influencing

the whole zone, resulting into the most vulnerable zone. So, the same way these zones have

few problematic areas like slums or densely populated areas, which collectively affect the

whole zone. Figure 8 over here depicts few of these areas.

Source: Field visits and Imagery su

Figure 12 Vulnerable areas within zones (Images)

Cities have been permanently developing their water-related infrastructure and

discharging their urban waters into the nearest water body. During time, natural, undisturbed,

discharging conditions were becoming deteriorated due to the raising of the river water stages.

Floods in urban conditions are flashy in nature and occur both on urbanized surfaces

(streets, parking lots, yards, parks) and in small urban creeks that deliver water to large water

bodies. Other causes of urban floods are:

Inadequate land use and channelization of natural waterways

Failure of the city protection dikes

Inflow from the river during high stages into urban drainage system

Surcharge due to blockage of drains and street inlets

Soil erosion generating material that clogs drainage system and inlets

Inadequate Street cleaning practice that clogs street inlets

Sudden Urban Floods disrupt the social systems of the countries and the cities, and cause

enormous economic losses. Impacts produced by increased runoff in urban setting are the

following:

Loss of human life

Flooding of housing, commercial and industrial properties

Flooding of streets, intersections and transportation systems, causing traffic delays

Recurring basement backups from surcharged sanitary sewers



Inflow of storm water into sanitary sewers

Municipal wastewater treatment plant by-passing

Combined sewer overflows- spilling the surcharged sewers content into streets

Damage to public and personal property

Health hazards

Disruption of services such as water supply, sewerage and power supply

Delays in public transportation

Cleanup demands

Adverse effects upon the aesthetics

Disturbance of wildlife habitats

Economic losses

Pollution of local waterways and receiving water bodies

7.3. Suggestions and recommendations

If the damage is assessed before the occurance of a disaster measures can be taken beforehand

to minimise the damages (Kamat R. 2009). Our objectives of flood management are specific

final results that should to be achieved in a predetermined timeframe. Those are:

Reducing exposure of people and property to flood hazards

Reducing existing level of flood damages

Minimizing soil erosion and sedimentation problems

Protecting environmental quality and well-being by reducing in-the-catchment pollution

Improving the usefulness of floodplains

Minimizing receiving water pollution

Reducing future after-development flow rates to pre-development levels

Enhancing recreational opportunities and improving overall urban amenities

Replenishing ground water

The FM measures can be categorized into structural, non-structural measures and capacity

building. Structural measures for FM are physical in nature and aim to prevent floodwaters

from reaching potential damage centers, whereas non- structural measures strive to keep the

people away from floodwaters.

8. CONCLUSION

An optimal engineering solution may not be the best because of social and institutional

constraints, which means that traditional engineering codes reflect criteria which are not

anymore politically permissible. The origins and consequences of flooding have to be fully

understood, particularly in developing countries, in order to propose and justify adequate

institutional strengthening (regulatory agencies, conservation authorities) which should

overcome existing institutional and political barriers. Broad multi-media promotion of non-

structural urban flood management measures should be carried out particularly at the level of

local communities where flood protection facilities are exposed to atrophy due to globally

experienced budgetary cutting. Urban flood risk depends on a combination of components

Dr. Rajshree Kamat


comprising hazard and vulnerability. It underlines the combination of natural and human

factors that create flood risks. Urban flood planning and management measures have to be

planned across administrative and sector boundaries. Institutionalized links between

concerned authorities facilitate cooperative planning. Successful urban flood risk management

is obtained if structural and non-structural measures are implemented. The implementation of

multiple purpose measures enables municipalities to achieve multiple goals such as flood

mitigation, water supply, space for recreational activities, groundwater recharge and

improvement of urban environment. Monitoring and evaluation of implemented measures

enable the identification of best practices under the specific circumstances and help to

constantly improve flood risk management plans. Community participation in flood risk

assessment as well as in planning and implementation of risk management measures is a key

for the success of urban flood risk management plans. As per the outcome of the research,

further research should be done for proper preparedness and response during future urban

flood of not only Bhopal but also other cities. In the context of urbanization, disaster risk

increases as a result of lack of smart planning/sustainable city planning. Vulnerability

assessment based planning for the future risks found above Show the link between DRR and

city and urban planning which will further guide for future practices/policies of town and

urban planning which is the benefit of making risk reduction an integral part of local

development. The importance of good information for urban risk assessment, government

civil society collaboration, and links between local, national and regional levels of

government is also evident.

REFERENCES

[1] Roxy, M. K.; Ghosh, Subimal; Pathak, Amey; Athulya, R.; Mujumdar, Milind;

Murtugudde, Raghu; Terray, Pascal; Rajeevan, M. (2017-10-03). "A threefold rise in

widespread extreme rain events over central India". Nature

Communications. 8 (1). doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. ISSN 2041-1723.

[2] Simpkins, Graham. "Hydroclimate: Extreme rain in India". Nature Climate Change. 7(11):

760–760. doi:10.1038/nclimate3429.

[3] UNDP. 2017. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Madhya Pradesh

[4] http://www.mpsdma.mp.gov.in/floods-2/

[5] Kamat R., Rudrapriya Yadav, (2017). Framework for Urbanflood vulnerability

Assessment. International journal for studies in Planning and Management , 03 (07), 247-

257.

[6] Garvelmann et al. (2015). Spatio-temporal controls of snowmelt and runoff generation

during rain-on-snow events in a mid-latitude mountain catchment. . Hydrological

Processes .

[7] Agrawal, S. (2017, January). RMSI. Retrieved from Rising Urban Floods in the Country.

[8] Batica, J. (2015). Methodology for flood resilience assessment in urban environments and

mitigation strategy development. Universit e Nice Sophia ntipolis.

[9] CBSE. (2006). Natural Hazards and Disaster Management. (Vol. I). (A. D.-U. Shri M.P

Sajnani, Ed.) Delhi: Preet Vihar.: Central Board of Secondary Education.

[10] Ganaie et al. (2013). Delineation of flood prone area using Normalised Water Index and

Transect Method: Case Study of Kashmir Valley. .

[11] Ghanbarpour. (2014). Floodplain inundation analysis combined with contingent valuation:

Implications for sustainable flood risk management. Water Resource Management .

[12] Governemnt of India, D. m. (2004). Disaster management in India.



[13] Hajar Nasiri, M. J. (2016). An overview to flood vulnerability assessment methods.

Sustainable Water Resources Management , II (3), 331-336

[14] Kamat, R. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2015) 29: 527. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-

014-0898-z

[15] Kamat, R. (2013). "Urban Planning with Disaster Management for Earthquake and Flood

Prone Hoshangabad Town" 1st Annual International Conference on Architecture and Civil

Engineering (ACE 2013) 214-222.

[16] Kamat, R (2007). Assessing flood hazard vulnerability of hoshangabad town, madhya

pradesh. Spatio- economic development record (SDR) 14.3.

[17] Khan, H. K. (2008). Natural hazards and disaster management in Pakistan. Munich

Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) .

[18] Mendez-Antonio, B. E.-C.-T. (2013). Weather radar data and distributed hydrological

modeling: an application for Mexico Valley. Open Journal of Modern Hydrology, 3: 79-

88. .

[19] Nasiri, H. (2013). Flood vulnerability index as a knowledge base for flood risk assessment

in urban area. .

[20] Reacher, e. a. (2004 ). Health impact of flooding in Lewes: a comparison of reported

gastrointestinal and other illness and mental health in flooded and non-flooded

households. . Communicable Disease and Public Health .

[21] SANDRP. (2016). Retrieved from South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People:

https://sandrp.wordpress.com/2016/07/11/drp-news-bulletin-11-july-2016-namami-gange-

proving-mere-an-extension-of-ganga-action-plan/

[22] (2009). The Planning System and Flood Risk Management. The Planning System and

Flood Risk Management Guidelines for Planning Authorities, Guidelines for Planning

Authorities.

[23] UNDP. (2008). Disaster Management- Preparedness Methodology In Assam . United

Nations Development Programme.

[24] UNESCO-IHE. (n.d.). Flood Vulnerability Indices (FVI). (I. o. Education, Producer)

Retrieved from Flood Vulnerability

Factors:http://unescoihefvi.free.fr/flood_vulnerability_factors.php

[25] Kamat, R. (2009).” An Approach To Link Risk Assessment With Urban Planning In

Earthquake & Flood Prone Town For Proper Infrastructure Planning.” ABACUS (A Bi-

annual International Journal of Architecture, Conservation and Urban Studies). 23-28.

Documents

URBAN FLOOD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BHOPAL, M.P., …iaeme.com/MasterAdmin/uploadfolder/IJCIET_10_01_258/IJCIET_10_01_258.pdf · ASSESSMENT OF BHOPAL, M.P., INDIA Dr. Rajshree