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Updated Supply, Demand and Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans
Todd Hubbs and Scott [email protected] / [email protected]
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
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Figure 1. December 1 Corn Stocks
9,815
8,933
10,278 10,07210,902
10,0579,647
8,033
10,45311,211 11,235
12,383 12,56711,937
11,389
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
mil.
bu.
Average Trade Estimate = 11,511 mill. Bu.
Figure 2. December 1 Corn Grain Stock Report Surprises
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
83-8
484
-85
85-8
686
-87
87-9
988
-89
89-9
090
-91
91-9
292
-93
93-9
494
-95
95-9
696
-97
97-9
898
-99
99-0
000
-01
01-0
202
-03
03-0
404
-05
05-0
606
-07
07-0
808
-09
09-1
010
-11
11-1
212
-13
13-1
414
-15
15-1
616
-17
17-1
818
-19
19-2
0
Surp
irse
(mill
ion
bush
esl)
Date
Market Surprise for NASS 1st Quarter Implied Usage Estimates for U.S. Corn, 1983-84 through 2019-20 Marketing Years
1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s
Figure 3. First Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn
2,230 2,1592,387
1,930 1,990 2,047
1,782
2,060
2,314 2,227 2,1782,279 2,256 2,287
2,612
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
2015-16
2017-18
2019-20
Mill
ions
of B
ushe
ls
Rate of First Quarter Disappearance
Implied 19/20 MY Feed and Residual Use
37%Observed During 1996/97-2005/06
7,059
39%Observed During 2006/07-2009/10
6,697
45%Observed During 2010/11-2013/14
5,804
43%Observed During 2014/15-2018/19
6,074
USDA 19/20 Projection 5,525 mbu
Figure 4: Projections for 2019/20 Marketing Year Feed and Residual Use of Corn
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
thou
sand
s
Planted
Harvested 89.7 Mil. Acres of Corn Planted in U.S. in 2019 Harvested Acres at 81.5 Mil. Acres
Figure 5: Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn
y = 1.8651x + 59.474R² = 0.9116
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
bu. p
er a
c.
2019 Trend Yield173.2 bpa
USDA = 168.0Avg. Trade Guess= 166.2
Figure 6: U.S. Average Corn Yield
Figure 7: Trend Deviations for U.S. Average Corn Yield
10.0
11.0
21.6
14.5
12.4
0.7 2.9
3.00.6 1.9 1.3
9.4
1.7
18.0
3.7 3.1 2.9 3.7
12.9
0.7
8.3
33.8
0.6
10.46.0 7.5 8.4
5.2
5.2
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Yiel
d D
evia
tion
(bu.
/acr
e)
Year
Figure 8. Corn Yield by State Bushels and Change from Previous Year
0.6 0.6
1.1
-0.7 -0.6
0.2
2.4
-1.0
0.2
-0.5
-2.1-1.9
0.1
2.3
-1.5
0.5
1.1
-1.6
-2.4
-0.9-0.7
1.2
-2.5
1.0
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3bu
. per
ac.
Figure 9. January U.S. Corn Yield Estimate Minus Nov. Forecast
Figure 10. U.S. Corn Production
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
2015-16
2017-18
2019-20
Mill
. of B
ushe
lsUSDA = 13,692
Avg. Trade Guess = 13,513
Figure 11. USDA January Corn Production Minus November Forecast
7
-75-100 -86
-39
5
-164
66 80
-210
-94
81
230
-93
48 55
-64
-191
-53-78
26
-206
31
-250-200-150-100-50
050
100150200250300
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
mil.
bu.
Figure 12. U.S. Agricultural Exports to China: Previous 3 Years
12,224
3,193
1,234 978
945
839 569 321
489 237
351 83 31
152 62
2,270
3,119
2,857
1,055
924 607
523
490 338
331
325 106 82 61 59 41
2,249
7,045
1,504
792 639 377 141
330
344
858 578
56 0
70 54 34
1,765
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Soybeans ForestProducts
FishProducts
Cotton Hides&
Skins
CoarseGrains
(ex. corn)
DairyProducts
OtherIntermediate
Products
Pork &Pork
Products
TreeNuts
Wheat Ethanol,incl. bev.
Beef &Beef
Products
Corn DistillersGrains
OtherAg
Products
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
2017 2018 Jan - Nov 2019
2017: $24 billion; 77% in first 5 categories 2018: $13.2 billion2019 through Nov. : $14.6 billion
Figure 13:Corn Balance Sheet 2019-20
USDA Forecast
2019-20 Forecast
2020-21 Forecast
Supply: Planted Acreage (mill. Ac.) 89.7 89.7 92.1Harvested Acreage (mill. Ac.) 81.5 81.0 84.7Yield (Bu. / Ac.) 168.0 167.0 177.4Total Production(mill. Bu.) 13,692 13,527 15,025Beginning Stocks(mill. Bu.) 2,221 2,221 1,542Imports (mill. Bu.) 50 50 50
Total Supply (mill. Bu.) 15,962 15,798 16,617
Consumption: Feed and Residual (mill. Bu.) 5,525 5,525 5,500Food, Seed, and Industrial (mill. Bu.) 6,770 6,805 6,800
Ethanol (mill. Bu.) 5,375 5,410 5,400Exports (mill. Bu.) 1,775 1,845 2,050
Total Consumption (mill. Bu.) 14,070 14,175 14,350
Ending Stocks (mill. Bu.) 1,892 1,623 2,267Stocks-to-Use 13.4% 11.4% 15.8%
Average Price ($/bu.) $3.85 $4.00 $3.55
Figure 14. December 1 Soybean Stocks
2,701
2,360 2,275 2,339 2,278 2,370
1,9662,154
2,5282,714
2,8993,161
3,746
3,252
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
mil.
bu.
Average Trade Estimate = 3,186 mill. Bu.
Figure 15. December 1 Soybean Stocks Surprises
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
83-8
484
-85
85-8
686
-87
87-9
988
-89
89-9
090
-91
91-9
292
-93
93-9
494
-95
95-9
696
-97
97-9
898
-99
99-0
000
-01
01-0
202
-03
03-0
404
-05
05-0
606
-07
07-0
808
-09
09-1
010
-11
11-1
212
-13
13-1
414
-15
15-1
616
-17
17-1
818
-19
19-2
0
Surp
irse
(mill
ion
bush
esl)
1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s
Market Surprise for NASS 1st Quarter Implied Usage Estimates for U.S. Soybeans1983-84 through 2019-20 Marketing Years
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
thou
sand
s Planted
Harvested
76.1 Mil. Acres of Soybeans Planted in U.S. in 2019 Harvested Acres at 75 Million Acres
Figure 16: Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soybeans
y = 0.0039x2 + 0.1989x + 23.618R² = 0.9079
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960/61
1965/66
1970/71
1975/76
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
2010/11
2015/16
bu. p
er a
c.
2019 Trend Yield48.8 bpa
USDA = 47.4Avg. Guess = 46.6
Figure 17: U.S. Average Soybean Yield
0.6 0.2
3.2
-2.3
6.0
-0.5
1.32.1
1.6
-1.2-0.2
0.7
-1.4
-6.0
1.7 2.11.3
-0.5
-3.0
0.7
-0.4
-2.5
-5.1
-1.7
1.1 1.0
4.4
0.8
2.1
-1.4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Yiel
d D
evia
tion
(bu.
/acr
e)
Year
Figure 18. Trend Deviations for U.S. Average Soybean Yield
Figure 19: Soybean Yield by StateBushels and Change from Previous Year
Figure 20: January U.S. Soybean Yield Estimate Minus November Forecast
-0.3-0.2
0.3
-0.2
0.10.2
0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.6
-0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.7
-0.4
0.20.3 0.3 0.3
-0.3-0.4 -0.4
-0.5
0.5
-1.25
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
bu. p
er a
c.
Figure 21. U.S. Soybean Production
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2012/13
2014/15
2016/17
2018/19
mil.
bu.
USDA = 3,558Avg. Guess = 3,512
Figure 22. USDA January Soybean Production Minus November Forecast
-21-9 -6
-30
-7
-32
40
-34
-9
43
-16 -9
38 42
-46
10
54
3111
-55-65
-33
-56
8
100
50
0
50
100
150
200
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mill
ions
of B
ushe
ls
Figure 23: Soybean BalanceSheet
2019-20USDA
Forecast2019-20 Forecast
2020-21 Forecast
Supply:Planted Acreage (mil.) 76.1 76.1 85.4Harvested Acreage (mil.) 75.0 75.0 84.6Yield (bu./ac.) 47.4 47.4 50.3Production (mil. bu.) 3,558 3,558 4,255Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 909 909 439Imports (mil. bu.) 15 15 20
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,482 4,482 4,714
Consumption:Crush (mil. bu.) 2,105 2,105 2,115Export (mil. bu.) 1,775 1,810 1,800Seed (mil. bu.) 128 128 134
Total Consumption (mil. bu.) 4,008 4,043 4,049Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 475 439 609
Stocks-to-use 11.8% 10.8% 15.0%
Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.00 $9.10 $8.60
Please continue to submit questions during this part of the webinar
Scott [email protected]
@ScottIrwinUI
Todd [email protected]
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