Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Update on US Grains
Council and World Markets
NC Joint Commodities
Conference
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Grains Council
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
Developing Markets Enabling Trade Improving Lives
Trade is a Two-Way Street
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Your Global Marketing Arm
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
Export Market Development:
A Public/Private Partnership
U.S.
Department
of Agriculture
US Grains Council US Wheat Associates US Soybean Export Council Cotton Council International
Your Checkoff Dollars At Work !!
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Exports are vital to U.S. agriculture
• Astounding productive capacity of U.S.
agriculture
• U.S. corn yields rising to 200 bu/acre.
• Unparalleled growth of middle class in
developing countries
• Exports are the major driver of future demand
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Exports is not a spectator sport
• Array of policy issues w/far-reaching
implications – e.g. food safety, food security,
biotech acceptance
• Rise of competition
• Explosion of information and information
technology
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Role of Export Market Development
Information as catalyst for change
• Build confidence in trade
• Find common ground with US agricultural interests
and international markets
• Find solutions and opportunities that make trade win-
win
• Build partnerships with export customers
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Demand Building
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Policy
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Marketing
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Enabling Trade
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Global grains: “Interesting times”
• High grains prices
• China
• Political/economic turmoil
• WTO – TPP – T-TIP
• Policy issues and conflicts
• Biotechnology
• Biofuels mandates
• Market access
• Phyto-sanitary regulations
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Corn Supply/Demand
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Corn Supply/Demand
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Production
TY Imp. from U.S.
TY Imports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Major Corn Exporters (th.mt.)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
BrazilIndiaUkraineArgentinaOtherUS
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Argentina Corn S&D (th.mt.)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000Production
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Brazil Corn S & D (th.mt.)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Ukraine Corn S & D (th.mt.)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Production
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
US Corn Export Sales YTD 2 Jan 2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
This Week Year Ago
unknown
Others
11 - 20
S ARAB
GUATMAL
VENEZ
TAIWAN
PERU
COLOMB
KOR REP
JAPAN
CHINA
MEXICO
28,643
12,769
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Soybean Supply/Demand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Production
Imports
Exports
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Soybean Supply/Demand
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
th.m
t.
Production
Imports
Imports from US
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Soybean imports
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
China
Other
EU
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Cotton Supply/Demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Production
Exports
USE Dom. Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Cotton Supply/Demand
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
ProductionImportsImports from USUSE Dom. ConsumptionEnding Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Wheat Supply/Demand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Exports
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Wheat Supply/Demand
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference So what can we expect?
Trends are easy: yield, production, economic
growth, consumer demand, trade
Discontinuities and disruptions hard to predict
• Weather
• Political and economic crises
• Policy shifts – Non-agricultural pressures
• Crises of consumer confidence
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
98.1
276
616
Households (millions)
Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA
Developing countries 30 year growth: 528%
Developed countries
30 year growth: 36%
340 Million Households
. . . . will enter the Middle Class by 2020
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference USDA 10-year Trade Outlook
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Outlook for Coarse Grains Imports
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
Feeding the World:
Competition
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Corn Use in Ethanol (mbu)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,0009
0-9
1
91
-92
92
-93
93
-94
94
-95
95
-96
96
-97
97
-98
98-
99
99
-00
00
-01
01
-02
02-
03
03
-04
04
-05
05
-06
06-
07
07
-08
08
-09
09
-10
10-
11
11
-12
12
-13
13
-14
14
-15
15
-16
16
-17
17
-18
18
-19
19
-20
20
-21
134 mmt
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Corn Price (US cents/bushel)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Price
Price Proj
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference What about CHINA?
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference China Corn Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
th.m
t.
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference China and DDGS Price
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference What about CHINA?
Big Player Growing Pains Stay Engaged
Don’t Put Eggs in One Basket
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference What the future looks like
• 1 billion new middle class consumers
• Stronger consumer voice and power
• IT changing landscape of power, opportunity
• Mind-blowing Innovations
• More complex/vulnerable global supply chains
• Increasing competition in everything
• Rise and decline of nations and markets – Much
bigger role for China and India
• Land – water – energy constraints and competition
25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference U.S. Agriculture --
Elements of YOUR Future Success
• Consumer incomes (stability and growth)
• Rules of the game
• Trade environment – access, regulations, skills
• Consumer preferences and concerns
• Risk management
• Innovation - competition
World Markets:
We Must Be There!
NC Joint Commodities
Conference