UPDATE AND ANALYSIS FROM THORN RUN PARTNERS

NOVEMBER 7 , 2012

2012 Election Results

Introduction

While yesterday’s election left Washington’s power balance much as it was the day before, there are some notable changes in the political landscape.

This slide presentation is intended to concisely capture the results of the election and its implications for key congressional committees.

Presidential Election

President Barack Obama won re-election by a comfortable margin in the electoral college, winning at least 303 electoral votes. At the time of publication, Florida has yet to be

officially awarded to Obama - although early predictions indicate that he will win the State’s 29 electoral votes.

112th Congress 113th Congress

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47

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US Senate: Democrats Expand Majority

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45

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*Independent Senator Angus King (ME) is expected to caucus with Democrats.

The House: Republicans Keep Majority

While Democrats are likely to pick up between four and seven seats, the GOP will maintain the majority having secured 234 seats in the lower chamber – a few elections have yet to be called.

WHO WON, WHO LOST, AND WHICH

COMMITTEES HAVE NOTABLE VACANCIES?

Senate Breakdown

Senators Leaving Office

Daniel Akaka, D, Hawaii (retiring)

Jeff Bingaman, D, New Mexico (retiring)

Scott Brown, R, Massachusetts (defeated in general election)

Kent Conrad, D, North Dakota (retiring)

Kay Bailey Hutchison, R, Texas (retiring)

Herb Kohl, D, Wisconsin (retiring)

Jon Kyl, R, Arizona (retiring)

Joe Lieberman, I, Connecticut (retiring)

Richard Lugar, R, Indiana (lost primary)

Ben Nelson, D, Nebraska (retiring)

Olympia Snowe, R, Maine (retiring)

Jim Webb, D, Virginia (retiring)

Key Senate Elections

Arizona: Jeff Flake (R) defeated Richard Carmona (D)

Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D) defeated Linda McMahon (R)

Florida: Bill Nelson (D) defeated Connie Mack (R)

Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D) defeated Richard Mourdock (R)

Maine: Angus King (I) defeated Charlie Summers (R), Cynthia Dill (D)

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) defeated Scott Brown (R)

Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) defeated Todd Akin (R)

Montana: Jon Tester (D) defeated Denny Rehberg (R)

Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) defeated Bob Kerrey (D)

Nevada: Dean Heller (R) defeated Shelly Berkeley (D)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D) defeated Rick Berg (R)

Virginia: Tim Kaine (D) defeated George Allen (R)

Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) defeated Tommy Thompson (R)

Meet the New Senators (part 1)*

Tammy Baldwin, (D-Wis.) Once sworn in, Tammy Baldwin will be the first openly gay senator in the chamber’s history. To reach that

milestone, she had to stop the conservative momentum in her home state, where Republicans had been making a habit of winning statewide races.

Ted Cruz, (R-Texas) Ted Cruz followed the road paved by other tea party-backed candidates, getting early help from enthusiastic

conservative activists and going on to best an establishment Republican. For Cruz, that meant defeating Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who had 14 years’ experience in state government, in the primary runoff.

Joe Donnelly, (D-Ind.) After three terms in the House, Donnelly is taking his record as a legislative moderate to the north side of the

Capitol. As a Blue Dog Democrat, he advocated fiscal discipline along with national security priorities in the House. As a senator, he will focus on helping Indiana businesses create jobs, strengthening the economy and lowering the debt.

Deb Fischer, (R-Neb.) A record for beating well-known rivals and clinching deals as a state legislator could position Deb Fischer as a

leading voice for her party’s conservative wing and for a Republican caucus with few veteran female members. Fischer earned a reputation for moving conservative priorities in the unicameral legislature, including a mandate for voter approval of increases in local occupation taxes.

Jeff Flake, (R-Ariz.) Flake arrived in Washington more than a decade ago with his mind set on achieving one goal above all others:

taking down earmarks. Early on, he found little success. But congressional attitudes toward ending funding set-asides for projects in lawmakers’ districts has evolved considerably.

Martin Heinrich, (D-N.M.) An engineer by training, Heinrich says he brings a more analytical perspective to solving problems than most of

his colleagues on Capitol Hill. His top priorities are creating jobs and strengthening Social Security and Medicare. And he insists that he is willing to work with Republicans to do that, despite voting with his own party on more than nine of every 10 votes that split the two parties.

*Source: Roll Call

Meet the New Senators (part 2)*

Heidi Heitkamp, (D-N.D.) Heidi Heitkamp is most concerned about agricultural issues, with energy a close second. She’s already asked

to be on the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, where she can fight for programs such as crop insurance. She also would be interested in serving on three other committees: Energy and Natural Resources, Finance and Indian Affairs.

Mazie Hirono, (D-Hawaii) When Hirono ran for governor in 2002, the Honolulu Advertiser placed her in the class of “unapologetically

interventionist and indisputably liberal” Democrats who built Hawaii’s government. She lost that race to Republican Linda Lingle, but her victory in a 2012 rematch sends Hirono from the House to the Senate.

Tim Kaine, (D-Va.) Tim Kaine joins a growing roster of former governors who have transitioned from chief executive to one of

100 in the Senate. Most recently the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Kaine told voters that he would like to focus his efforts on education, defense and foreign policy.

Angus King, (I-Maine) Angus King, a former two-term Maine governor, has built a high-profile political career while shunning

political labels and staking out a niche between the parties. Although a determined independent, he likely will align with Democrats to lock in committee assignments.

Christopher Murphy, (D-Conn.) Christopher Murphy, a three-term House member, says he decided to run for the open Senate seat because

he’s confident he can be a strong voice for his state during “a critical time in the nation’s fiscal history.” Murphy will replace retiring Democrat-turned-independent Joseph I. Lieberman.

Elizabeth Warren, (D-Mass.) Elizabeth Warren, a tenured law professor at Harvard University, had never run for political office prior to

the 2012 campaign. But in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Warren was appointed to chair the congressional oversight panel responsible for the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

*Source: Roll Call

Openings on Key Senate Committees(assuming no changes to committee ratios)

Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Sen.

Richard Lugar (R-IN)Appropriations

Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)

Banking Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-HI), Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI)

Commerce Ranking Member Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Sen.

Olympia Snowe (R-ME)Energy and Natural Resources

Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)

Openings on Key Senate Committees (part 2)

Finance Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM),

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ).Environment and Public Works

No vacancies among EPW members.Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)Homeland Security

Chairman Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-HI), Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA)

Special Committee on Aging Chairman Herb Kohl (D-WI)

WHO WON, WHO LOST, AND WHICH

COMMITTEES HAVE LEADERSHIP VACANCIES?

House of Representatives

Breakdown

Republicans Democrats

Jean Schmidt, OhioDonald Manzullo, IllinoisFrancisco Canseco, TexasFrank Guinta, New HampshireAnn Marie Buerkle, New YorkBenjamin Quayle, ArizonaCharles Bass, New HampshireChip Cravaack, MinnesotaCliff Stearns, FloridaDavid Rivera, FloridaNan Hayworth, New YorkJohn Sullivan, OklahomaJoe Walsh, IllinoisJudy Biggert, IllinoisRoscoe Bartlett, MarylandRobert Schilling, IllinoisRobert Dold, IllinoisSandy Adams, Florida

Ben Chandler, KentuckyBetty Sutton, OhioDennis Kucinich, OhioHansen Clarke, Michigan, Howard Berman, CaliforniaJason Altmire, PennsylvaniaJoe Baca, CaliforniaKathy Hochul, New YorkLarry Kissell, North CarolinaLaura Richardson, CaliforniaLeonard Boswell, IowaMark Critz, PennsylvaniaPete Stark, CaliforniaRuss Carnahan, MissouriSilvestre Reyes, TexasSteve Rothman, New JerseyTim Holden, Pennsylvania

Defeated House Incumbents

Tracking the Tossup House Races

As of today (Nov. 8) there were six House races that were outstanding after Tuesday’s elections. They are the contests in Arizona’s 2nd and 9th districts, California’s 7th and 52nd districts, Florida’s 18th district and North Carolina’s 7th district. The contest in California’s 36th district had not been called, but Rep. Mary Bono Mack trailed her Democratic opponent by a large margin.

*Source: Roll Call

New House Members (part 1)

Arizona: Ann Kirkpatrick (D-1) , Matt Salmon (R-5), Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R-4) California: Julia Brownley (D-26), Tony Cardenas (D-29), Paul Cook (R-8), Jared

Huffman (D-2), Doug LaMalfa (R-1), Alan Lowenthal (D-47), Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-35), Raul Ruiz (D-36),  Eric Swalwell (D-15), Mark Takano (D-41), David Valadao (R-21), Juan Vargas (D-51)

Connecticut: Elizabeth Esty (D-5) Florida: Cheri Bustos (D-17) Ron DeSantis (R-6), Lois Frankel (D-22), Joe Garcia

(D-26), Alan Grayson (D-9), Trey Radel (R-19), Ted Yoho (R-3) Georgia: Doug Collins (R-9) Hawaii: Tulsi Gabbard (D-2) Illinois: Rodney Davis (R-13), Tammy Duckworth (D-8), Bill Enyart (D-12), Bill

Foster (D-11), Brad Schneider (D-10) Indiana: Susan Brooks (R-5), Luke Messer (R-6), Jackie Walorski (R-2) Kentucky: Garland “Andy” Barr IV (R-6), Thomas Massie (R-4 Maryland: John Delaney (D-6) Massachusetts: Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-4) Michigan: Kerry Bentivolio (R-11), Dan Kildee (D-5) Minnesota: Rick Nolan (D-8) Missouri: Ann Wagner (R-2)

New House Members (part 2)

Montana: Steve Daines (R-at large) Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) Nevada: Steven Horsford (D-4), Dina Titus (D-1) New Hampshire: Ann McLane Kuster (D-2), Carol Shea-Porter (D-1) New Jersey: Donald M. Payne Jr. (D-10) New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-1) New York: Chris Collins (R-27), Hakeem Jeffries (D-8), Dan Maffei (D-24), Sean

Patrick Maloney (D-18), (Grace Meng (D-6) North Carolina: George E.B. Holding (R-13), Richard Hudson (R-8), Mark Meadows

(R-11), Robert Pittenger (R-9) North Dakota: Kevin Cramer (R-at large) Ohio: Joyce Beatty (D-3), (David Joyce (R-14), Brad Wenstrup (R-2) Oklahoma: Jim Bridenstine (R-1st district), Markwayne Mullin (R-2nd district) Pennsylvania: Matt Cartwright (D-17), Scott Perry (R-4), Keith Rothfus (R-2) South Carolina: Tom Rice (R-7) Texas: Joaquin Castro (D-20), Pete Gallego (D-23rd), Beto O’Rourke (D-16), Marc

Veasey (D-33rd), Filemon Vela (D-34), Randy Weber (R-14), Roger Williams (R-25) Utah: Chris Stewart (R-2) Washington: Suzan DelBene (D-1st district), Denny Heck (D-10), Derek Kilmer (D-6) Wisconsin: Mark Pocan (D-2)

Leadership Vacancies on Key Committees (1 of 3)

Agriculture Committee Conservation, Energy, and Forestry Subcommittee Chairman (Tim Holden) General Farm Commodities and Risk Management Subcommittee Ranking

Member (Leonard Boswell) Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Subcommittee Ranking Member (Dennis Cardoza) Nutrition and Horticulture Subcommittee Chairman (Jean Schmidt) Rural Development, Research, Biotechnology, and Foreign Agriculture

Subcommittee Chairman (Tim Johnson) Appropriations Committee

Full Committee Ranking Member (Norm Dicks) Defense Subcommittee Ranking Member (Norm Dicks) Labor, HHS, Education Subcommittee Chairman (Denny Rehberg) Transportation, Housing and Urban Development Subcommittee Ranking

Member (John Olver) Education and the Workforce Committee

Early Childhood, Elementary, and Secondary Education Subcommittee Ranking Member (Dale Kildee)

Workforce Protections Subcommittee Ranking Member (Lynn Woolsey)

Leadership Vacancies on Key Committees (2 of 3)

Energy and Commerce Committee Commerce Manufacturing and Trade Subcommittee Chairman (Mary

Bono Mack) Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman (Cliff Stearns)

Financial Services Committee Full Committee Chairman (Spencer Bachus, term limit) Full Committee Ranking Member (Barney Frank) Domestic Monetary Policy Subcommittee Chairman (Ron Paul) Insurance, Housing and Community Opportunity Subcommittee

Chairman (Judy Biggert) Natural Resources Committee

No leadership vacancies at full Committee or Subcommittee levels.

Leadership Vacancies on Key Committees (3 of 3)

Oversight and Government Reform Committee Government Organization, Efficiency and Financial Management

Subcommittee Chairman (Todd Platts) Government Organization, Efficiency and Financial Management

Subcommittee Ranking Member (Ed Towns) Regulatory Affairs, Stimulus Oversight and Government Spending

Subcommittee Ranking Member (Dennis Kucinich) Transportation and Infrastructure Committee

Full Committee Chairman (John Mica, term limit) Ways and Means Committee

Health Subcommittee Chairman (Wally Herger) Health Subcommittee Ranking Member (Pete Stark) Oversight Subcommittee Chairman (Charles Boustany faces

December 8 run-off.)

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