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UNO Offshore
IMPORTANT / DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this presentation is confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual recipient it is addressed to, and not for any publication or redistribution.
Subsea Operations Conference 2018- Subsea Vessel Market Overview
Agenda
» Introduction
» Subsea vessel market at a glance
» Market Prospects
» Offshore Wind
» Vessel utilisation
» S&P
» Attrition
» Summary
Our Systems
» UNO Offshore have access to unique online tools for the OSV and subsea market to further improveour service to clients
» Market cycle of; 7 good years and 7 bad years?
» Despite industry downturn – utilisation kept at impressive levels
» Costs are down – and will remain down for an extendedperiod to drive activity levels
» Day rates slightly increased from last year
» Demand Improving / high tendering activity
» Tier 1 Contractors with stable back log
» Few term contracts concluded, but contracts are secured
» Contracts basis «We Work You Work»
» Refinancing / Restructuring
» Vroon, Bourbon, Pacific Radiance
» Tidewater / Gulfmark / Harvey Gulf
Subsea vessel market at a glance
«Most brutal downturn in recent Offshore history»
» Increased project activity
» FID from 12 in 2016 to 24 in 2017
» Estimated up to 40 in 2018
» So far this year estimated 30FIDs in 2019
» Subsea trees
» High end tonnage / SPS
» Harsh environments / Brazil / WAF
» Oil price – steady or slightly increased longterm forecast
Market Prospects
Johan Sverdrup tow out 31.05.2018
Offshore Wind
» Renewable remains a rising star; particularly offshore wind
» Offshore wind installation with appetite for subsea vessels, for development and production phases
» Other geographical areas will follow; Taiwan – 1st phasecontract already awarded
» Service Operation Vessels (SOVs) still ordered
» What happen when O&G recovers?
Ulstein SX195 ordered by Bernhard Schulte to support GE Renewable Energy at the German wind farm Merkur Offshore
Offshore Wind Installations (in GW)
Subsea vessel utilisation - Survey Vessels (crane < 100t)
Segment Present ratelevel kUSD/day
1 yearforecast
2 - 3 yearsforecast
Pax < 60 / World Wide 15 – 20 → ↗
Pax ≥ 60 / World Wide 15 – 20 → ↗
Fleet statistics Total
Total fleet 124
Utilization – Aug ‘18 66%
Under Construction 0
+20 years age 16 (13%)
In lay up 30 (24%)
Average age 12.0 years
02468
1012
197
6
197
8
198
0
198
2
198
4
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
Fleet Age Profile
Olympic Artemis MT6021, b. 2015
Subsea vessel utilisation - Light OCV (crane 100→199t)
Segment Present ratelevel
kUSD/day
1 year forecast
2 - 3 years forecast
Worldwide tonnage
20 – 30 → ↗
Fleet statistics Total
Total fleet 97
Utilization – Aug ’18 78,0%
Under Construction 3 (3%)
+20 years age 2 (2%)
In lay up 10 (10%)
Average age 8,6 years
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Fleet Age Profile
Havila Subsea HY855, b. 2011
Subsea vessel utilisation – OCV (crane ≥ 200t)
Segment Present ratelevel kUSD/day
1 year forecast
2 - 3 yearforecast
Norw sector 30 – 40 → ↗
Worldwide tonnage 30 – 40 → ↗
Fleet statistics Total
Total fleet 77
Utilization – Aug ’18 81,8%
Under Construction 6 (8%)
+20 years age 0
In lay up 5 (6,5%)
Average age 5.4 years
0
2
4
6
8
10
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Fleet Age Profile
Edda Freya Salt 304OCV, b. 2016
Subsea vessel utilisation – SAT Diving Vessels
Fleet statistics Total
Total fleet 45
Utilization – Aug ’18 71%
Under Construction 1 (2%)
+20 years age 13 (24%)
In lay up 7 (15%)
Average age 15 years
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Fleet Age Profile - DSV
Seven Kestrel VS4725 DSV, b. 2017
» Not many S&P deals concluded ww within subsea vesselsegments and far less then in 2017;
Fortitude HX102 design (ex Toisa Patroklos)
Well Servicer
Bourbon Altair
Vissolela
» Newbuild availabilities:
» Haldane VARD303, Søviknes
» 2 x SALT 305 ROV, Qingdao Wuchuan, China
» + DSV «Toisa Pelagic» Shanghai Zhenhua Yard
» Edda Forties, Ulsan Korea
» Oriental Dragon (ST246DSV, Huangpu Wenchong)
» Second hand vessel values remain strong compared to OSV transactions where reduced prices and fire sales have been recorded
S&P
The Ulstein-owned vessel, ‘Kasteelborg’, has been awarded a 6-year contract by Wagenborg Offshore to support Nederlandse AardolieMaatschappij (NAM) and SHELL UK Exploration & Production (Shell UK) with their offshore operations in the Southern North Sea. (ERRV and W2W)
» Seven Osprey b. 1984
» Seven Condor b. 1982
» Kommandor 3000 b. 1984
» Deep Pioneer b. 1984
» Orelia b. 1984
» Sunrise 2000 b. 1984
» Bar Protector b. 1981
» Agile b. 1978
» Revelation b. 1975
Demolition is a necessary evil
New Orleans; Tidewater loading 4 x PSVs (b. 1998-2001) of UT755 design + 3 AHTS (b. 2005-06) of VS486 design onboard «Xiang YunKou» for transportation to breakers in India
Attrition
Significant increase in scrapping
Attrition
Decommissioning
“Atlantic Challenger” b. 1990 “Rockwater 1” b. 1983
Attrition
» Decommissioning
Maersk Searcher & Maersk Shipper capsized and sank in the Bay of Biscay en route to Aliaga, Turkey for recycling
Cyclone «Vardah» Chennai, India wrecked 13 OSV newbuilds in December 2016 at Larsen & Toubro’s yard
Alternative markets; Powerships
Karadeniz purchased vessels from Siem, Solstad, Møkster and Maersk
Fully integrated floating power plants by Karadeniz
Attrition
Alternative Markets; Aquaculture
Shellfish Harvester «Belle Carnell» ex. Siddis Skipper VS 470 b.2004 same Buyer also purchased «Anne Risley» ex. Siddis Supplier of same design b.2010 from O.H. Meling
Sea farm service vessel «Martin» ex. Havila Princess VS470 b. 2005 purchased by Bakkafrost . Same Buyer also purchased «Roland» ex Skandi Waveney UT755 b.2001 from Havila and DOF respectively
Attrition
Rigs
Cromarthy Firth, Scotland “TransOcean Winner” grounding at Dalmore beach, on the Isle of Lewis, UK 8th August 2016
Attrition
Summary
» Market activity for 2019
» indicated quotes proving Owners being more confident
» Increased Demand
» other geographical areas to follow
» Long lead time is expected for many projects
» Short Supply of High end subsea tonnage
» Attrition – some vessels unlikely to return to service
» Subsea vessels are there for the future
Thank You!
«The Future’s So Bright, You Gotta Wear Shades»
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