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Understanding Your Local Economy
Garen Evans
Department of Agricultural Economics
Mississippi State University
Why should I care about this?• We live here
• We work here
• Leaders are expected to make informed decisions
– Citizens, commuters, businesses, tourists
– Potential entrepreneurs (new business)
– Fiscal governance
Outline• How to study a community
• Anatomy of a local economy
• Economic indicators
• Comparative Summary – Oktibbeha County
• Fiscal Issues
• Capacity Issues
How to study a community…1. Qualitative
2. Ecological
3. Ethnographic
4. Sociological
5. Economic
How to study a community…1.1. QualitativeQualitative
2. Ecological
3. Ethnographic
4. Sociological
5. Economic
• HousingHousing
• SchoolsSchools
• NeighborhoodsNeighborhoods
• AttitudesAttitudes
How to study a community…1. Qualitative
2.2. EcologicalEcological
3. Ethnographic
4. Sociological
5. Economic
• Spatial distributionSpatial distribution
– Groups of peopleGroups of people
– ActivitiesActivities
– InteractionsInteractions
How to study a community…1. Qualitative
2. Ecological
3.3. EthnographicEthnographic
4. Sociological
5. Economic
• Communities as a way of Communities as a way of lifelife
• Cultural DimensionsCultural Dimensions
– FoodFood
– MusicMusic
– LanguageLanguage
How to study a community…1. Qualitative
2. Ecological
3. Ethnographic
4.4. SociologicalSociological
5. Economic
• Social relationshipsSocial relationships
• How and WhyHow and Why
– organizations of people organizations of people in societyin society
How to study a community…1. Qualitative
2. Ecological
3. Ethnographic
4. Sociological
5.5. EconomicEconomic
But first a little background…
ANATOMY OF A LOCAL ECONOMY
Class…
– What’s in the barrel?
• Natural Resources
– Air, water, land, minerals
• Producers
– Good and services
• Raw, intermediate, finished• Consumers:
– Labor force, children, students, retirees and tourists
The 4 Factors of Production
1.Land
2.Labor
3.Capital
4.Management
What are the returns to the four factors of production?
1.Land
2.Labor
3.Capital
4.Management
Class…
What are the returns to the 4 factors of production?
What are the returns to the four factors of production?
1.Land
2.Labor
3.Capital
4.Management
• RENT
• WAGES
• INTEREST
• PROFIT
The Barrel Gets Bigger…• Dollar$ from non-local purchases of locally produced
goods and services
– Commodities:
• Agricultural, mining
– Manufactured goods, services
– Transfer payments
– Tourism $
The Barrel shrinks!
• Non-local spending
– Consumer goods and services
– Producer inputs purchased elsewhere
How to study a community…1. Qualitative
2. Ecological
3. Ethnographic
4. Sociological
5.5. EconomicEconomic
• Linkages between economic Linkages between economic sectors.sectors.
• Types of existing jobs/skillsTypes of existing jobs/skills
• IncomeIncome
• SourceSource
• DistributionDistribution
• TemporalTemporal
• ResourcesResources
ECONOMIC INDICATORSDiscovering what is in the barrel, how it flows in, and why it leaks out…
Lots of metrics!• Demographics
– Pop., Income
• Economics
– Jobs, Output, TVA
– Distributional
• Fiscal
– Rev. & Exp.
Population Metrics• School-aged
– Infrastructure
• Elderly
– transfer payments
• social security
• Medicare
• Medicaid
Households• Owner-occupied
– Important goal for low income communities
– Important means for wealth accumulation
“In terms of lower income households, non-housing wealth accumulation is at best minor and, for minority families, often negative”
(1) Source: Wealth Accumulation and Homeownership: Evidence for Low-Income Households. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Dec. 2004.
Income• Total Personal Income
– Earnings
– Dividends, interest, and rent
• Investment income
• Capital income
• Property income– Transfer payments
Types of Employment• Civilian Labor Force (CLF)
– Employed Persons
– Unemployed Persons
– Unemployment Rate = unemployed / CLF
• Place of Work Employment
– Jobs
Economic SectorsGoods-Producing
Nat. res. & mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Services-Producing
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Education and Health
Leisure & Hospitality
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Metrics• Industry Sales or Output (cf., GNP)
• Employment
• Labor Income
– Wages and salaries + proprietors incomes
• Total Value Added (cf., GDP)
Industry Sales – an example
• Farmer sells cow to butcher $0.50
• Butcher sells meat to McDonalds $0.75 [+0.25]
• McDonalds sells hamburger $1.75 [+1.00]
• Total Sales………………………………… $3.00
Total Value Added – an example
• Farmer sells cow to butcher $0.50
• Butcher sells meat to McDonalds +$0.25
• McDonalds sells hamburger +$1.00
• Total Sales………………………………… $1.75
Oktibbeha County• 1995-2004
– Comparisons with region and state.
– Population
– Employment
– Income
– Sales
– Commuting
Population
40,623
43,769
39,00039,50040,00040,50041,00041,50042,00042,50043,00043,50044,00044,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Population Growth
1995-2004 2004-2010O ktibbeha 7.74% 2.21%Lowndes -0.01% 7.25%M ississippi 7.15% 4.81%
Population Growth
1.13%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Lowndes Oktibbeha MS
Civilian Labor ForceCLF = Employed + Unemployed
UER = 100* (Unemployed / (Employed + Unemployed))
or
100* UER/CLF
Unemployment Rate
3.48
7.09
5.65
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Oktibbeha Lowndes MS
Civilian Labor Force
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Oktibbeha Lowndes
Where Do We Work?
-2,0004,000
6,0008,00010,00012,000
14,00016,00018,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
AGRI MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE
Jobs in the Top Three Sectors
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
MFG SVC TRADE
Job Growth by Sector1995-2004
80.4%
32.9%
48.0%
65.1%
-2.1%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AGRI MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE
Earning Trends by Sector ($M 2000)
$-$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE
Earnings Growth, 1995-2004
105.5%
14.4%
37.0%
53.8%
71.5%
9.1%
278.3%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE
Components of Income
Earnings64%
Dividens, Interest & Rent
19%
Transfer Payments
17%
Total Personal Income
$-
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
DIR TP EARN
FISCAL ANALYSIS
Revenues and Expenditures• Revenues
– Taxes, charges, fees, transfers, bonds
• Expenditures
– Health, hospitals, education, public welfare, highways, public safety: police and fire protection
Tax RevenuesAd Valorem
“according to the value”
Property Taxes
Retail Sales
State Tax Levies
State Transfers
Property Taxes• Assessed Value
• Taxable Value
– 10% Residential Property
– 15% Commercial Property
– 30% Motor Vehicles, et al.
• Tax Rate: Millage
Millage Rate• Millage Rate is the tax rate per $1000 of value.
• One Mill = 1/10th of One Cent
(0.001)
Example – Class 1 Property• Assessed Value: $120,000
• Taxable Value: $12,000 (120000/10)
• Millage Rate: 111.09
• Tax Levy: 12 * 111.09 = $1,333.08
Retail Taxes• Mississippi collects 7% sales tax on many retail products.
• Eligible municipalities receive part of sales taxes collected in their jurisdiction
• 18.75%• City (ie., incorporated municipalities)
Retail Sales in 2000• Oktibbeha County: $408 million
• $302 million in eligible municipalities:
• City Diversions:
– Maben: $86,899
– Starkville: $3,687,185
– Sturgis: $40,838
Commuting
• Oktibbeha County
– 18,401 total
– 15,071 own-commute
– 3,330 out-commute
Out-commuters
3,330
MS: 3,134
AL: 73
TN: 17
LA: 26
Other: 80
In-Commuters
IN O UT NETM ississippi 3,557 3,134 423 Alabam a 92 73 19 Tennessee 26 17 9 Louisiana 16 26 (10) O ther 42 80 (38) Total* 3,733 3,330 403
Other Issues1. Local infrastructure
– Capacity
2. Health Care
– Impact of poor health – a case study
1. Capacity IssuesCapacity
5.76 Mgal/day
Average
3.6 MGal/day
Peak
4.4 Mgal/day
• Daily per-capita usage: 84 gallons (avg)
• Population growth: 2%
– Exceed system cap by 2027
– Exceed system peak by 2017
2. Health Issues• Mississippi ranks highest for
– Obesity
– Heart Disease
– Diabetes
– Infant Mortality
• Employers
– Educated workforce
– Access to healthcare
Health = Wealth (or vice versa?)
• “During the past 30 days, how many days did poor physical or mental health keep you from doing your usual activities?”
20.4% of all respondents
8.1% of workers
Health $$$
$32.9 Million
Of LOST INCOME
$144 Million in present value losses accumulate over 30 years
Understanding Your Local Economy
Garen Evans
Department of Agricultural Economics
Mississippi State University
Thank you !
Community Economic Analysis• Technical and structural analysis of community decisions.
For example:
– Boundaries: geographic, political, social, economic
– Infrastructure:
– Capacity
– Potential
• Improve decision making associated with community economic development
• Community Development
Increase capacity of local population to collectively pursue its own interests.
– Local leadership
– Citizen participation
– Collective decision making
– Community organization
• Community Economic Development
– Community:
• A group of people in a physical setting with geographic, political, social, and economic boundaries, and with discernable communication linkages
Shaffer, Deller, and Marcouillier (2004)
• Community Economic Development
– Community
• Group of people who know each other and plan together for long-term improvements
– Economic
• Monetized returns, Measurable results– Development
• Structural change (not just growth)