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Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future

A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

Brian Kelly, Cetis

Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future

A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

Talk to be given by Brian Kelly, Cetis at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa on 5 June 2014

Further details: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

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About Me

Brian Kelly:• Innovation Advocate at Cetis (Centre for Educational

Technology, Interoperability and Standards)• Based at University of Bolton• Was UK Web Focus, UKOLN from 1996-2013• Role as a national advisory post to UK universities• Long-standing Web evangelist (since 1993)• Prolific blogger (~1,300 posts since Nov 2006)• Prolific speaker (~425 talks since 1996)• Author of peer-reviewed papers on various Web topics• Member of NMC Horizon Report Panel of Experts

Contact details: Twitter: @briankelly email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Twitter:#saoim

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About This Talk

How should libraries predict and plan for technological developments? When it comes to future planning, how can libraries identify the ‘weak signals’ which may indicate possible significant changes?If we look back to the past to our childhood we may have had over-optimistic views on benefits which technological developments would provide.This talk describes a methodology used by Cetis in their work with Jisc to systematise the prediction of technological developments.

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About This Talk

What we can learn from: Expectations from the past Limitations of futurologists

The need to: Gather evidence Solicit broad feedback on interpretations of the

evidence Be receptive to the implications of new technologies

and the broader environment

Relevant horizon-scanning reportConclusions(What, specifically, does the future hold?) If time!

Joe Murphy: “I’ll ask questions about future of libraries”Me: “I’ll describe a methodology for asking the questions and interpretting the findings”

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In the Future

Data will be Big

Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA

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In the Future

Content and services will be open

Web is Agreement by Paul Downey.CC BY

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In the Future

We will own our services and content

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In the Future

We will see a growth in use of online services

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In the Future

We will see a growth in use of online services

FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on new opportunities in the FinTech space, April 2014

with increased access on mobile devices

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In the Future

We will see a growth in use of online services

NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computing Services for Mars Rover Curiosity, August 2012

and content and services hosted in the Cloud

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In the Future

We will see the importance of librarians and information professionals acknowledged

Causes, ALA

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In the Future

We will see greater investment in libraries

£298k investment! The Library is committed to enhancing its services and facilities to deliver the very best library experience for users. During 2013/14 we are directing £298k to boost access to core materials. This sum is in addition to the millions spent on library resources across the Colleges.

Enhancing Core Library Collections 2013/14, University of Exeter, UK

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In the Future

We will travel to work by monorail

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In the Future

We will use jetpacks at weekends (or maybe for document delivery!)

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When Did You Stop Believing?

At what point did you become sceptical?

Big data Growth in onlineOpen sourceOpen content

Value of librarians Greater investment Monorails Jetpacks

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 1

You will be inclined to believe in predictions which reflect personal beliefs and interests or reflects the organisational or sectoral culture

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Looking at the Futurologists

Gartner report

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Gartner

Beware vested interests which may be threatened by implications of predictions

Gartner May Be Too Scared To Say It, But the PC Is Dead, Mark Hachman, Readwrite Web, 5 April 2013

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We commission reports from experts in the field

PDF

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We commission reports from experts in the field

… is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years.

In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.

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Looking at Other Sectors

What can we learn from the changes in the music industry?

• Record labels & music distributors reluctance to respond to: Growth in networked music services Users willing to accept limitations of file

formats (MP3)• New players (Apple, Amazon, Google)

enter the market

Were reports commissioned which (mistakenly) provided evidence of importance of high fidelity formats over MP3?

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Looking at Other Sectors

Are libraries following the path of HMV or Apple/Amazon/ Google?

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 2

You can’t always trust futurologists!(they may bring their sectoral, organisational or personal prejudices with them)

Caveat:Their expertise may also be valuable and correct, but they may miss significant developments

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JISC Observatory

JISC Observatory:• JISC-funded initiative • Systematises processes for anticipating and

responding to projected future trends & scenarios• Provided by JISC Innovation Support Centres at UKOLN

and CETIS• See <http://blog.observatory.jisc.ac.uk/>

But:• Work closed due to cessation of JISC core funding • Methodology being shared across community

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JISC Observatory

JISC Observatory processes

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Accompanying Paper

JISC Observatory work described in paper presented at EMTACL (Emerging Technologies in Academic Libraries) 2012 conference

Sharing approaches with Norwegian librarians

See bit.ly/emtacl12-kelly

Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues & provide feedback using #saoim

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Accompanying Paper

Follow-up paper presented at CILIP’s Umbrella 2013 conference

See bit.ly/umbrella-13-kelly

Sharing approaches with UK librarians

Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues & provide feedback using #saoim

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 3

Information professionals should carry out evidence-gathering, sense-making and synthesis activities for their own organisation / sector.

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Invention, Innovation, Improvement

1. Invention: The creation of the idea or method itself.

2. Innovation: The use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method.

3. Improvement: Doing current activities better.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovation

Which one is your main area of interest to support your professional activities?

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 4

You will need to monitor (a) innovations to support long-term planning and (b) improvements in order to enhance operational practices

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“Manchester City to open the archive on player data and statistics”Example of:• How data can inform

practices and decisions

• Public interest in open data

• Interest from commercial sector

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Significant Trends: Social Media

Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers

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Significant Trends: Social Media

Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers

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Behind The Data

Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell group Unis since Jan 2011 show steady increase

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Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jul 12

But note increase in Jul 2012 due to addition of 4 new universities!

But might trends hide a more complex story:

• Usage & growth dominated by one significant player.

• More modest usage generally

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LIES, DAMNED LIES AND GRAPHS

“#Blekko traffic goes through the roof – for good reason. Try it out!”

Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why” (includes dissatisfaction with Google)

Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?, UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 5

Data can provide insights and indicate trends – but needs to be interpretted carefully

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JISC Observatory

JISC Observatory processes

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Open Sense-making

Seek feedback on:• Evidence-gathering

methodology e.g. flaws in ‘paradata’

• Implications of findings

• Interventions needed in light of findings

“All bugs are visible to many eyes”

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Open Sense-making

Importance of open approaches to interpretation of signals:

• Evidence-gathering methodologies may have flaws• Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be made• This may lead to wrong decisions being made

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Open sense-making approaches may be difficult – your marketing department may wish a consistent, positive message to be made.

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 6

Once you’ve gathered evidence you should encourage open feedback on:

• Validity of evidence-gathering methodologies• Interpretation of findings• Implications

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Envisaging Alternative Futures

There is a need to be willing to:• Envisage implications of technological

developments

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Shush!

We may appropriate technological developments to support their activities - but simply emulate existing ways of working!

Acknowledgements to Patrick Hochstenbach (@hochstenbach)

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Question for the Audience

Hands up if you have:• Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in

bed (yes, no, rarely)

“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010

Informal survey, March 2012

“The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed”What are the implications of this new ‘platform’?

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Becoming Receptive to Future-Thinking

How do we become more receptive to new future scenarios?

• What did you notice for the first time recently?What will you foresee for the future?

• Typically optimistic or pessimistic views, reflecting personal traits.

• Possibly no new insightsNow stretch your mind consider:

• The History of the Web Backwards• Forecasting Trends Backwards

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Reversing the Future!

Romancing Your Soul Absolutely Brilliant! (1 min 44 secs)

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Reversing the Future!

The Future of Publishing (2 mins 24 secs)

Various innovative story-telling techniques listed in a blog post by Tony Hirst (ouseful.info)

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 7

Make use of techniques which may help you to be receptive to alternative future scenarios…and consider use of such approaches when you tell stories about the future to your users

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Prioritising Work

The Delphic MethodologyGroup exerciseIdentify 4 key technologies which you feel will be important :

• During the current year• In 2-3 years’ time• In 4-5 years’ time

Vote on other groups’ proposalsYou’ve identified areas you feel will be important

The Delphi methodology is used by NMC and in the JISC Observatory

Workshop notes

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 8

Explore the potential of using the Delphi methodology to help identification of future developments of importance to your organisation

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Scenario Planning

You’ve speculated on alternative futures.You can use them in scenario planning exercises

Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

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Future Scenarios for Social Networks

Possible scenarios for social networks

Steady as she goes

Dystopian futures

Small is beautiful

Who cares?

Continued growth in existing services

FaceAmazoogle own your content & digital identities

Distributed open source services; individuals own content

User backlash against social networks & stop using them

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Future Scenarios for Social Networks

Possible scenarios for social networks

Steady as she goes

Dystopian futures

Small is beautiful

Who cares?

The default scenario

How do we detect evidence of this scenario?

How do we detect evidence of this scenario?

How do we detect evidence of this scenario?

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Implications for Future of Libraries

Possible scenarios for the future of libraries

Everyone’s a librarian

Fake certainties

Middle classes or deprived?

Privatised future

We all curate large amount of digital content. Who needs professional librarians?

We know we’re right / our boss is convinced he’s right!

Is focus on support for online users or those who don’t / can’t use IT?

We are encouraging users to use commercial services

See http://hyperlinkedlibrarymoocbriankelly.wordpress.com/category/library-of-the-future/

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 9

Scenario planning, covering both technological and societal developments, can be useful in planning for future developments

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NMC Horizon Reports

NMC Horizon Reports: http://www.nmc.org/

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NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013

NMC Horizon report: Higher Education, 2013

PDF

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NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014

NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014

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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)

ETAG: • Exploring short-

and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions

• Contributions welcomed

http://feltag.org.uk/etag/

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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)

ETAG: • Exploring short-

and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions

• Contributions welcomed

• Comments by Twitter hashtags & email

http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/

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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)

ETAG: • Exploring short-

and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions

• Contributions welcomed

• Comments by Twitter hashtags & email

http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/

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Top Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 10

Read the NMC and related reports (but discuss their relevance in your own context) …and consider implications of Twitter as a tool for making input into policy discussions

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Warning From The Past

Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web

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Tip no. 11

The Serenity Prayer

The Serenity Prayer

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Conclusions

1. Beware of predictions which reflect personal / sectoral beliefs

2. You can’t always trust futurologists!

3. Carry out your own future planning work

4. Monitor innovations and improvements

5. Data can provide insights & indicate trends

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Conclusions

6. Solicit feedback on your evidence and interpretations

7. Be receptive to innovation & use innovative approaches in story-telling

8. Explore use of the Delphi methodology

9. Make use of scenario planning

10. Read the NMC reports

11. Remember the Serenity prayer

Thoughts on the future (if time)

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What Does the Future Hold? (1)

Personal thoughts and observations for librarians

PDF

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NMC Higher Education Horizon Report 2014

Important Developments in Educational Technology for Higher Education Time-to-Adoption

Horizon: One Year or Less >Flipped Classroom >Learning Analytics

Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years >3D Printing >Games and Gamification

Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years>Quantified Self >Virtual Assistants

(Pre-)Amplified events for professional development

Evidence: collated by NMCImplications: better trained staff, who are aware on implications for teaching & learning & researchHow: managers to provide support; staff to use technologies

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What Does the Future Hold? (2)

Personal thoughts and observations for librarians

Research data – providing new opportunities

Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in librariesImplications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation; statistics; …How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …

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What Does the Future Hold? (2)

Personal thoughts and observations for librarians

Research data – providing new opportunities

Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in librariesImplications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation; statistics; …How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …

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What Does the Future Hold? (3)

The future of libraries:• Great opportunities provided by growth in the

online environment• Uncertain due to:

The competition provided by other players The failure of the library community to be willing to

take risks and do thinks differently

“We suffer from limited horizons and are obsessed with obsolete practices and standards of perfection” Lawraine Wood, Proceedings of the Library Association Industrial Group, 1988!

Evidence: For you to find!Implications: For you to decideHow: Being pro-active; being open; being honest!

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That’s all folks!