Understanding climate impacts on vulnerable people

Local Health and Wellbeing in a changing climate, NottinghamFriday 1st March 2013

Sarah Lindley,

University of Manchester

Justice, vulnerability and climate changeFull report available at http://www.jrf.org.uk/publications/climate-change-justice-and-vulnerability

Vulnerability How external stresses impact on well-being.

A lower ability to respond to stresses placed on well-being higher vulnerability.

The central question: how is vulnerability distributed across different individuals and groups?

1. Likelihood and severity of the weather related event – flood, heatwave.

2. Vulnerability: The conversion of the event into welfare impacts (individual, social and environmental)

3. Climate disadvantage is a function of 1 and 2. The characterisation of vulnerability raises:

1. How should well-being be conceptualised and measured?

2. What factors are relevant to understanding how external stresses convert into changes in well-being?

Geographical expression of the potential for an event to convert into the loss of wellbeing Dimensions reveal a different picture and requires different actions

Ability to respond

Ability to recover

Adaptive capacity

Exposure(Enhanced)

Vulnerability

Sensitivity

Ability to prepare

Socio-spatial vulnerability

Hazard

Exposure

Climate disadvantage

But understanding related climate disadvantage requires consideration of the potential for contact with a flood or heat-related event too

Socio-spatial flood/heat vulnerability domainsDimension Domain

Sensitivity: Biophysical

characteristics

Age

Health

Exposure: Physical

neighbourhood attributes

Physical environment

Housing characteristics

Preparation: Taking precautions Income

Tenure

Information use

Local knowledge

Insurance

Response: Avoiding losses Income

Information use

Local knowledge

Insurance

Social networks

Mobility

Crime

General accessibility

Recovery: Recovering from a

flood event

Income

Information use

Insurance

Social networks

Mobility

Housing mobility

Dimension Domain

Sensitivity: Biophysical

characteristics

Age

Health

Exposure: Physical

neighbourhood

attributes

Physical environment

Physical geography

Housing

characteristics

Preparation: Taking

precautions

Income

Tenure

Information use

Response: Avoiding

heat stress during an

event

Income

Information use

Social networks

Mobility

Crime

General accessibility

General

infrastructure

Recovery: Recovering

from heat stress if it

occurs

Information use

Social networks

Mobility

Service access

Socio-spatial flood vulnerability in England

Coastal

Built-up areas, basement dwellings

e.g. possible insurance access issues

Name SSFV Potential flood exposure*

Flood disadvantage

L’boro E

EH 76% ED

L’boro W

EH 30% ED

*Land area with significant or moderate flood likelihoods(EA) English mean = 8.4% NB: NOT properties exposed

• Both neighbourhoods have relatively low adaptive capacity• East has population & local physical characteristics close to English norm • West has less sensitive population but a local environment which can enhance flood exposure

Selected indicators – L’boro E

Sensitivity around average overall Higher than expected % of young

children

Physical characteristics balance out to English norm Proportions of basement

dwellings above average (5.1% compared to 2.6%)

but not as built up as the average English neighbourhood taken as a whole

Selected indicators – L’boro E

Lower adaptive capacity - preparing for, responding to and recovering from events may be difficult

Potential for insurance access problems Lower HH incomes £280 (vs.

£390) Relatively high rates of new arrivals 42.3% HHs without a car (vs.

26.3%) Lower than expected increase in

house prices 2003-8 Higher than average rates of social

and private tenants Large proportion of residents born

overseas (20.6% compared to 8.2%)

Regional breakdowns

% of total neighbourhoods in each English region estimated to be extremely socially flood vulnerable

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

EastMidlands

East ofEngland

London NorthEast

NorthWest

SouthEast

SouthWest

WestMidlands

Yorkshireand TheHumber

% o

f to

tal n

eigh

bour

hood

s in

eac

h re

gion extremely high

extremely low

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

EastMidlands

East ofEngland

London NorthEast

NorthWest

SouthEast

SouthWest

WestMidlands

Yorkshireand TheHumber

% o

f to

tal n

eigh

bour

hood

s in

eac

h re

gion extremely high

extremely low % estimated to

be extremely flood disadvantaged (high socio spatial vulnerability & high potential for flood exposure)

Heat disadvantage in England

London’s high average socio-spatial heat vulnerability is coupled with tendency for higher temperatures

England’s climate gradient also offsets some of the low socio-spatial heat vulnerability in South East

But There is a

differential in the tolerance of high temperatures from place to place

Alternative measures required

Socio-spatial heat vulnerability compared to local temperature patterns

There is variation in what drives heat-related social vulnerability

Selection accounted for relative temperature pattern (class 5)

Selected indicators – St Matthews & St Peters

Leicester 018

Sensitivity – relatively sensitive Young children rather than older

residents Reported ill-heath

Physical environment enhances heat Around 4.8% HHs >= 5th floor (vs.

0.7%) Relatively small gardens Less greenspace (85.9% not GS vs.

48.3% )

Lower adaptive capacity Lower incomes £160 per HH (vs.

£390) Relatively high % of lone parents

& social renters Lower mobility: personal mobility

&access to private transport: 59.1% HHs no car

Relatively good access to health services & local refuges

Key findings and conclusions

Key socially vulnerable groups: Poverty and deprivation New residents Mobility and access Sensitivity (inherent susceptibility to impacts, age & health) Enhanced exposure (physical characteristics of

neighbourhoods)

Drivers vary local case studies provide further insight

Almost all neighbourhoods will have some socially vulnerable people but the key characteristics of neighbourhoods can help in targeting and designing local measures alongside other activities

Evidence of joint socio-spatial vulnerabilities in the UK – up to 2/3 of the top 10% most socially vulnerable neighbourhoods were so for both flood & heat

ClimateJust - a new decision-support web portal Aim the primary entry point for learning about climate justice &

what constitutes a just response to the challenges of climate change in the UK

ClimateJust will assist users with Awareness Raising; Learning; Responding.

Key element distributive justice with respect to negative welfare impacts, but drawing on evidence, tools and guidance for other justice elements

The resource is aimed at local authorities and service providers working with local communities.

Development/Testing Data/case study work SWOT/’stakeholder’ mapping Wider dissemination

Interested? Please email sarah.lindley@manchester.ac.uk

Increasing engagement & different modes of engagement