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Joint Operating EnvironmentJoint Operating EnvironmentTowards 2035Towards 2035

Joint Operating EnvironmentJoint Operating EnvironmentTowards 2035Towards 2035

Mr. Joe Purser

Director, JFCOM Futures Group

Distribution “A”Requests for this document shall be referred to:

Center for Joint FuturesHQ; U.S. Joint Forces Command

112 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697Attn: Mr. Paul Martin, Phone: 757-203-3129

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• Provides context for the future joint force – the “demand signals” for JCDE

• Reviews the trends and disruptions that will create change

• Trends combine in different ways to form operational contexts that will frame future challenges

• Contexts lead to implications, or challenges for the joint force

We won’t get it all right – but we can’t afford to get it all wrong

The Joint Operating Environment (JOE)

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• Demographics – migration, growth, urbanization, aging, youth bulges.

• Globalization – transparency, fast-moving information and money, with global audience.

• Technology – rapid rate of change, proliferation, asymmetric developments.

• Scarcity of Natural Resources – food, water, energy

• Rising state powers – economies, militaries, influence.

• Rising power of non-state actors – growth of ideological, religious, and identity-based groups, less bound by conventions.

• Weapons of Mass Destruction – Cheaper and more effective ways to kill, injure, disrupt and terrorize available to a wider array of international actors.

The international environment will change – sometimes dramatically…

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Trends – U.S. Demographics

United States 2007United States 2007

Retired Cohort

Wage EarningCohort

SchoolingCohort

The Past

The Present

The Future

United States 2030United States 2030

Male Female

12 1266 00

AGE0-4

AGE85+

Millions

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United StatesUnited StatesRussiaRussia

GermanyGermanyJapanJapan

ChinaChina

NigeriaNigeria YemenYemen

IndiaIndia

MexicoMexico

BrazilBrazilWorld Population 2008: 6.7 Billion

2

4

6

8

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Population Reference Bureau

Demographics: Population by Age Eight billion people in the world by 2025 (2 billion more than today). Nearly all growth in the developing world. Absolute decline in Europe, Japan, Russia, and Korea. The U.S. will add 50 million people by 2025 (unique among the developed countries of the world).

Trends – World Demographics

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Trends - Migration & Population Change

The Global Movement of Peoples Unprecedented migrant flows around the world.

Muslims/Africans to Europe. Chinese to Siberia, Central Asians to Russia Indigenous Europeans to U.S./Australia/Canada Latin Americans to the United States

Movement toward areas of effective governance and to cities (whether well governed or not). Away from areas of famine, drought, floods, or other climatic disasters. Brain drain of skilled classes from the undeveloped world.

Some of the world’s most important current migration routes

SOURCES:SOURCES: National Public Radio The Economist

Distance no object

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As of last year >50% of the world’s population lived in cities. Rural growth is flat. By 2030, 65 % of humanity will live in cities – 5½ billion human beings. Large urban areas are usually near the oceans and subject to severe environmental,

social, and political pressures.

World’sLargestCities

2005 20201. Tokyo2. Mexico City3. Mumbai4. New York5. Sao Paulo6. Delhi7. Calcutta

1. Tokyo2. Mumbai3. Delhi4. Dacca5. Mexico City6. Calcutta7. Lagos

Major Urban Environments

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The Rise of new Asian Economic Powers will re-define the Global Economy

11 countries in the developing world with populations over 100 million and GDP over $100 billion.

China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam

Changing Balance of Creditor and Debtor Nations US $ under assault as World Reserve Currency

Trends - Economics and Globalization

Regional Share ofthe Global Economy (%)

NorthAmerica

EastAsia

EU

Other

SouthAsia

2008

33

19

31

17

- -

2025

30

30

16

11

13

Reversal of globalization would constitute a major shock with dramatic consequences

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Trends - Remittances

Source: Migration and Remittances Handbook, Development Prospects Group, World Bank (2006)

Remittance InflowsRemittance Inflows

Pakistan – $6.1 billion

Indonesia – $6.0 billion

Egypt – $5.9 billion

Morocco – $5.7 billion

Lebanon – $5.5 billion

India – $27 billion

China – $25.7 billion

Mexico – $25 billion

Philippines – $17 billion

Bangladesh – $6.4 billion

• Total remittances sent home by foreign workers exceeds the value of all foreign aid and foreign capital investments combined

• The single greatest income source for many developing countries

Remittance Outflows

U.S. – $42.2 billionJapan – $3.4 billionEurope – 25.4 billionGulf – $20.1 billion

Remittance Outflows

U.S. – $42.2 billionJapan – $3.4 billionEurope – 25.4 billionGulf – $20.1 billion

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Trends - Resource Scarcity: Water & Food

The Meaning of Food and Water Scarcity• Increasing stress on water supplies, desertification and shifting growth bands impact water and food production and affect regional politics.• Potential for Agflation as water, oil for fertilizer, increasingly scarce land, and overall demand drive up the cost of food.• Prices increasing as China, India, and others industrialize, leading to greater competition over natural resources

Percent of humanity subject to water scarcity:• 2025: 10%

• 2050: up to 33%

Growing concerns over food scarcity. In 2008:• 19 Grain Export Embargos

• 10 riots due to food distribution anomalies

Food Disruptions and Embargos

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Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy

The Meaning of Energy Competition• Energy demand follows population and economic growth.• Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status. • Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive. • For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources. • Should encourage innovation and energy diversity

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Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy

The Meaning of Energy Competition• Energy demand follows population and economic growth.• Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status.• Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive. • For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources. • Should encourage innovation and energy diversity

Future World Oil Production

Existing Capacity

Development of known reserves

Enhanced recoveries

Non-conventionalProducts and techniques ?

Era of Peak Oil

118 mb/d

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Atmospheric Concentration of CO2

Sea levels rise as global temperature increases.

CO2 levels in the atmosphere 100% greater today than 100 years ago.

Global avg. temperature has increased ~1.5 degrees.

For every 1 cm of vertical sea rise, 1-10 m of coastline is inundated.

Trends – CO2, Temperatures, Sea Level Rise

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• Two-thirds of major urban areas are partially in the 0-10meter zone. • 21 % of the urban populations of the least developed nations are in the zone.• About 75% of people in the zone are in Asia. • Poor countries — and poor communities within them — are most at risk.

Key

= Big Risk

= Moderate Risk

Los AngelesNew York

Mexico City

Sao Paulo

Lagos

Buenos Aires

Rio de Janeiro

Cairo

Mumbai Calcutta

Jakarta

Beijing

Karachi

ShanghaiTokyo

Delhi

Dacca

Data from the UN Habitat State of the World’s Cities 2008/9

Trends – Risks from Sea Level Rise and Storms

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Major Space Launch SitesMapped to Antipodes

The Future of “Key Terrain”Geographic Features, trade routes, ports and airfields will remain important terrain features for the joint force commander to consider; while orbital slots, launch site antipodes, …

Trends – Access to New “Key Terrain”

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… littoral undersea environments, fiber-optic and server hubs may be equally important in the future. DNS Root Server Locations

Links – The Cyber CommonsUndersea cable

Internet capacity

Internet users affected by outage

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Snapshot:

Global Network 2030• Real world simulated in

virtual environments

– Real-time “Google Earth?”

– Immersive environments

• Real word infused with embedded computation

– Meta-tagged world

– Augmented reality

• Real and Virtual Worlds merge.

• Infosphere with 6 billion “human brain” equivalent – nearing the total processing power of humanity itself.

Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies

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Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies

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Waves of IT Industry Growth in the Information Age

SOURCE: David Moschella, “Waves of Power”

Milli

ons of U

sers

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

10,000

1,000

100

10

1

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• Mass being offset by increased precision at greater ranges at decreasing cost. All adversaries will have access to precision anti-access weaponry.

• Accelerated information technologies and massive latent computing capacity creates massive parallel network computing.

• ISR will get even more intrusive and ubiquitous, requiring tremendous new information storage, processing dissemination, and security capabilities.

• Advanced space navigation and remote sensing more widely available.

Trends - Emerging Technological Challenges

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…leading to Contexts of Conflict and War

• Cooperation and Competition among conventional (state) powers will provide a number of challenges and threats to the joint force

• Weak and failing states will require engagement and cooperation

• Large, sprawling urban areas with dynamic pressures in which the joint force must operate

• Threats from Unconventional states and non-state powers that will confront us with new and innovative ways to wage war

• Battle of the Narrative will bring populations directly in touch with joint force operations and shape perceptions

• Defense of the US Homeland will require operations abroad and at home

Contexts are the confluence of two or more trends and illuminate why wars occur and how they might be waged.

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Context: Cooperation and Competition Among Conventional Powers

Historical Examples Congress of Vienna Monroe Doctrine World War II Cold War 1990-2005 China

Potential Future Examples Rise of China and India Shanghai Cooperation

Organization. Relations with Europe,

Japan, Korea Russia’s “Frontier of

Instability”

Potential For Conflict

Relative balance of military and economic power shifts

New combinations of regional powers/alliances

Struggle for control of international organizations

Implications for the Joint Force

Longer-range, more-precise weapons are more widely available and cheaper

Ubiquitous Anti-Access Weapons U.S. and others may no longer be able

to operate freely in the global commons (air, sea, space).

Technology, WMD proliferation, and globalization will bring homeland into reach.

The joint force will have a role preventing conflicts between other great states.

Risks

Growing powers not accommodated or properly represented in international forums

Emergence of unfavorable balances of power

Breakup of traditional alliances

Loss of access to Global Commons

Forced U.S. isolation

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Context: Weak and Failing States

Historical Examples Ottoman Empire China 1850-1930 Soviet Union Yugoslavia Congo Somalia Haiti

Potential Future Examples North Korea Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Zimbabwe

Potential For Conflict

At-risk states are: Politically unstable Challenged by

rebels and terrorists

May resort to mass killings of civilians

Enmeshed in international crises

Implications for the Joint Force

Early identification and diagnosis Responding to early signs of trouble Capabilities to enhance or restore

stability Mitigate effects of state failure

Risks

77% of all conflicts involve an unstable or failing state

Failed/Failing State = threat to international peace

Havens for disruptive non-state actors

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Context: Security In Urban Environments

Historical Examples Hue Beirut Sarajevo Grozny Fallujah Baghdad

Potential Future ExamplesSao PauloKarachiDaccaCairoLagosJakarta

Potential For Conflict

Wars occur where humans live.

Most human wealth is located in cities

Cities provide places to hide

Connects to: Financial resources Travel systems Communication

networks

Implications for the Joint Force

Shelter from U.S. advantages in ISR and fires

U.S. must separate adversaries from noncombatant civilian populations

Governance & stability packages High casualty rates Context for Homeland Security as well

Risks

Humanitarian disaster

Haven for international terrorists

Fortress for conventional forces

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Contexts: Threats from Unconventional Powers

Historical Examples COMINTERN Viet Cong Hezbollah Tamil Tigers Al Qaida North Korea

Potential Future Examples North Korea Iran ‘Hybrid’ Militias and Proxies Regional/Global Criminal

Gangs Transnational corporations

Potential For Conflict

Groups and States not bound by conventions

Identity-based ideology Ideology-based identities Definitions of ‘Modernity’ Weakening of Western Ideas

and Ideals

Implications for the Joint Force

Battle of Narratives. Changing Means of Deterrence Able to take advantage of the forces

of globalization Will fight without adherence to formal

‘rules of war’ Requires source of Legitimacy and

Comprehensive Approach

Risks

Erosion of convention-based international system

Global Terrorism WMD Proliferation

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Contexts: Battle of Narratives over Global Networks

Historical Examples Vietnam War Hezbollah Al Qaida

Potential Future Examples Patriotic Hacktivists Sunni Extremists/ AQ 2.0 Iranian Proxies/Shia

Extremists Transnational corporations

Potential For Conflict

Identity rooted in social and cultural blood and soil connections.

States must increasingly compete for allegiance.

Human migration and ubiquitous communications complicate identities.

Changing politics in developed countries

Implications for the Joint Force

Battle of Narratives. Identities forged via the internet and

other communications technologies. Able to take advantage of the forces

of globalization Local conflicts have Global impact NGO’s can help with local cultural

awareness.

Risks

Erosion of state-based international system.

“Democratization of Violence.”

Global Terrorism

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Context: Protection of the Homeland

Historical Examples War of 1812 Villa Incursion Pearl Harbor Anthrax Attacks Hurricane Katrina Infiltration of Illegal

Immigrants

Potential Future Examples Pandemic/Natural Disaster Border Defense National Missile Defense Adversary use of Media Cybersecurity against

massive cyberattack Terrorism/SOF Infiltration Secession/Rebellion

Potential For Conflict

Homeland no longer “off limits” for adversaries

Greater technological reach by adversaries

More access to the U.S. through ports/airlines/computer networks/space/ISR

Federalization of natural disasters

Implications for the Joint Force

Increased role for the Joint Force in domestic disasters

Attacks against the Joint Force at home bases possible.

WMD attacks on key US nodes Protection of “homeland” will include

elements of cyberspace Direct “attacks” against U.S.

perceptions and National Will

Risks

Domestic security concerns overwhelm local/state authorities

Access to our population

US unable to secure its borders from multiple, overlapping challenges

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Implications - Adaptability of Future Adversaries

• Adversaries do not wage discrete land, sea, air, space or cyberspace wars - Instead, they use all elements of power to wage war

• Adversaries are examining the U.S. way of war, and developing different technical capabilities to negate U.S technological advantages or to exploit technologies as military capabilities

• Adversaries will adapt military practice to:– construct a mix of conventional, irregular warfare, and nuclear threats– blur the line between political conflict and open war – place U.S. forces in strategic dilemmas by developing strategies to

avoid our advantages and confront us with their own asymmetries.

• They will use:– Globally ranging networks and open-source capabilities (internet,

commercial navigation and imagery)– Increasing technical equality to make anti-access strategies challenging

in all domains.– Mobility, mass, information, and precision fires on U.S. forces while

denying our ability to respond

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Some Leading Questions

• Professional Military Education– PME must develop broad understanding of the

world– More detailed cultural training and awareness

• Personnel Systems– Transform mobilization-based development

paradigm– Incentivize adaptability and innovation

• Defense Economics and Acquisition– Adversaries outpacing our system– Tempo of acquisition is having strategic effects

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2008 Stabilization Act+5% GDP

The current configuration of government entitlements, plus interest on the debt will pinch discretionary spending as government takes an increasing share of national revenue

US Spending vs. Tax Revenues as a Percentage of GDP

2009 Stimulus+5.7% GDP

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Much about conflict will remain the same…

• War is a human endeavor• War is an extension of policy

– Local political considerations will (continue) to dominate.– Democratization of politics, by extension, will be the

democratization of war.

• Our enemies will continue to target our vulnerabilities– Enemy is a willful, learning, and adaptive force– The enemy will likely be able to learn and adapt faster than we

can unless we change

• Friction is unavoidable – technology can not erase it• Surprise will continue to be a major factor – maybe

the dominant factor

Must build a force that is adaptable, agile, and resilient

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Questions?Questions?

Questions?Questions?Center for Joint FuturesJoseph.purser@jfcom.milhttps//www.jfcom.mil/

The JOE 2008 is available for download at: http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2008/JOE2008.pdf

The JOE Overview Fact Sheet is available at: http://www.jfcom.mil/about/facts_prt/JOE2008.pdf

Distribution “A”Requests for this document shall be referred to:

Center for Joint FuturesHQ; U.S. Joint Forces Command

112 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697Attn: Mr. Paul Martin, Phone: 757-203-3129