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Copyright © 2018 A.M. Best Company, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. No part of this report or document may be reproduced, distributed, or stored in a database or retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the A.M. Best Company. While the data in this report or document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For additional details, refer to our Terms of Use available at A.M. Best website: www.ambest.com/terms.
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Nominal GDP USD bn 109.32Population mil 42.3GDP Per Capita USD 2,583Real GDP Growth % 2.5Inflation Rate % 14.4
Literacy Rate % 99.8Urbanization % 70.1Dependency Ratio % 44.8Life Expectancy Years 72.1Median Age Years 40.6
Insurance Regulator
Premiums Written (Life) USD mil 110Premiums Written (Non-Life) USD mil 1,523Premiums Growth (2016 - 2017) % 8.6
UkraineBelarusKazakhstanPolandRussiaSlovenia
CRT-4CRT-2
Country Risk TierCRT-5CRT-5CRT-4CRT-2
Vital Statistics 2017
Insurance Statistics
Regional Comparison
National Commission for State Regulation of Financial Services
Markets
United Nations Estimates
Source: IMF, UN, Swiss Re, Axco and A.M. Best
Regional Summary: Eastern Europe•The Eastern European countries are at various stages of
bringing their legal, economic, and political frameworks to be more in line with European Union standards. The region has a great deal of economic potential, as it further integrates with the global markets of the European Union,butallofitscountrieswouldultimatelybenefitfrom more transparent and less cumbersome regulatory environments.
•Economic growth in 2017 was robust and is expected to continue in 2018 on growing domestic consumption, fueled by rising wage and falling unemployment rates. Additionally, funds provided by the EU’s Structural and Investment Funds will continue to drive public spending.
•AlthoughmanyEasternEuropeancountriesareclassifiedas emerging markets or frontier markets, reforms have enhanced economic stability and regional political power.
•Risks for the region include the potential for tightening globalfinancialconditionsandcurrencyvolatility.
Economic Risk Political Risk Financial System Risk
Country Risk Tier 1 (CRT-1) Very Low Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 2 (CRT-2) Low Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 3 (CRT-3) Moderate Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 4 (CRT-4) High Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 5 (CRT-5) Very High Level of Country Risk
UkraineCRT-5August 22, 2018Region: EuropeCountry Risk Criteria ProceduresGuide to Best’s Country Risk Tiers•TheCountryRiskTier(CRT)reflectsA.M.Best’s
assessment of three categories of risk; Economic, Political, and Financial System Risk.
•Ukraine, a CRT-5 country, has a high levels political risk andveryhighlevelsofeconomicandfinancialsystemrisk.
•The Russian-backed separatist movement in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea continues to threaten stability. However, the country returned to growth in 2016. GDP growth is forecast at 3.2% in 2018 and is expected to range between 3.0% and 4.0% over the medium term, with moderatinginflation.
•The majority of countries pictured are categorized as CRT-1 or CRT-2. Notable exceptions are the Eastern European countries of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, and Romania.
BEST’S COUNTRY RISK REPORT
Curacao
Cayman Islands Anguilla
BritishVirginIslands
St. Maarten
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Yemen Vietnam
Somoa
Venezuela
Vanuatu
Uzbekistan
Uruguay
United States
UnitedKingdom
U.A.E.
Ukraine
Uganda
TurkmenistanTurkey
Tunisia
Trinidad & Tobago
Tonga
Togo
Thailand
Tanzania
Tajikistan
Syria
Switzerland
Sweden
Swaziland
Suriname
Sudan
Sri Lanka
Spain
South Africa
Somalia
Solomon Islands
Slovenia
Slovakia
Singapore
SierraLeone
Serbia
Senegal
Saudi Arabia
Sao Tome & Principe
San Marino
St Vincent & the Grenadines St Lucia
St Kitts & Nevis
Rwanda
Russia
Romania
Qatar
PuertoRico
Portugal
Poland
Philippines
Peru
Paraguay
PapuaNew Guinea
Panama
Palau
Pakistan
Oman
Norway
Nigeria
NigerNicaragua
New Zealand
Netherlands
Nepal
Namibia
Mozambique
Morocco
MongoliaRepublic of
Moldova
Mexico
Mauritius
Mauritania
Malta
Mali
Malaysia
Malawi
Madagascar
Macedonia
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Liechtenstein
Libya
Liberia
Lesotho
Lebanon
Latvia
Laos
Kyrgyzstan
Kuwait
SouthKorea
NorthKorea
Kenya
Kazakhstan
Jordan
Japan
Jamaica
Italy
Israel
Ireland
Iraq Iran
India
Iceland
Hungary
Honduras
Haiti
Guyana
Guinea-Bissau Guinea
Guatemala
Grenada
Greenland
Greece
Ghana
Germany
Georgia
Gambia
Gabon
FrenchGuiana
France
Finland
Fiji
Falkland Islands
CanaryIslands
Azores
Reunion
Sumatra
Borneo
Taiwan
Sakhalin
Kuril Is
lands
NewGuinea
Tierra Del Fuego
South Georgia
Ethiopia
Estonia
Eritrea
Equatorial Guinea
El Salvador
Egypt
Ecuador
East Timor
DominicanRepublic
Dominica
Dijbouti
Denmark
CzechRepublic
Cyprus
Cuba
Croatia
Cote d'Ivoire
Costa Rica
Congo
Dem. Republicof Congo
Comoros
Colombia
China
Chile
Chad
Central AfricaRepublic
Cape Verde
Canada
Cameroon
Cambodia
Burundi
Myanmar
BurkinaFaso
Bulgaria
Brunei
Brazil
Botswana
Bosnia &Herzegovina
Bolivia
Bhutan
Benin
Belize
Belgium
Belarus
Barbados
Bangladesh
Bahrain
Bahamas
Azerbaijan
Austria
Australia
Armenia
Argentina
Antigua & Barbuda
Angola
Andorra
Algeria
Albania
Afghanistan
Western Sahara(Occupied by Morocco)
Montenegro
Isle of Man
Jersey
Guernsey
Monaco
Gibraltar
Seychelles
Russia
Hong KongMacau
Russia
Indonesia
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
Wake Island
Marshall Islands
Federated Statesof Micronesia
Nauru
Tuvalu
CoralSeaIslands
New Caledonia
Norfolk Island
French Polynesia
Pitcairn Islands
Kiribati
Tokelau
AmericanSamoa
CookIslands
Niue
Curacao
Cayman Islands Anguilla
BritishVirginIslands
St. Maarten
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Yemen Vietnam
Somoa
Venezuela
Vanuatu
Uzbekistan
Uruguay
United States
UnitedKingdom
U.A.E.
Ukraine
Uganda
TurkmenistanTurkey
Tunisia
Trinidad & Tobago
Tonga
Togo
Thailand
Tanzania
Tajikistan
Syria
Switzerland
Sweden
Swaziland
Suriname
Sudan
Sri Lanka
Spain
South Africa
Somalia
Solomon Islands
Slovenia
Slovakia
Singapore
SierraLeone
Serbia
Senegal
Saudi Arabia
Sao Tome & Principe
San Marino
St Vincent & the Grenadines St Lucia
St Kitts & Nevis
Rwanda
Russia
Romania
Qatar
PuertoRico
Portugal
Poland
Philippines
Peru
Paraguay
PapuaNew Guinea
Panama
Palau
Pakistan
Oman
Norway
Nigeria
NigerNicaragua
New Zealand
Netherlands
Nepal
Namibia
Mozambique
Morocco
MongoliaRepublic of
Moldova
Mexico
Mauritius
Mauritania
Malta
Mali
Malaysia
Malawi
Madagascar
Macedonia
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Liechtenstein
Libya
Liberia
Lesotho
Lebanon
Latvia
Laos
Kyrgyzstan
Kuwait
SouthKorea
NorthKorea
Kenya
Kazakhstan
Jordan
Japan
Jamaica
Italy
Israel
Ireland
Iraq Iran
India
Iceland
Hungary
Honduras
Haiti
Guyana
Guinea-Bissau Guinea
Guatemala
Grenada
Greenland
Greece
Ghana
Germany
Georgia
Gambia
Gabon
FrenchGuiana
France
Finland
Fiji
Falkland Islands
CanaryIslands
Azores
Reunion
Sumatra
Borneo
Taiwan
Sakhalin
Kuril Is
lands
NewGuinea
Tierra Del Fuego
South Georgia
Ethiopia
Estonia
Eritrea
Equatorial Guinea
El Salvador
Egypt
Ecuador
East Timor
DominicanRepublic
Dominica
Dijbouti
Denmark
CzechRepublic
Cyprus
Cuba
Croatia
Cote d'Ivoire
Costa Rica
Congo
Dem. Republicof Congo
Comoros
Colombia
China
Chile
Chad
Central AfricaRepublic
Cape Verde
Canada
Cameroon
Cambodia
Burundi
Myanmar
BurkinaFaso
Bulgaria
Brunei
Brazil
Botswana
Bosnia &Herzegovina
Bolivia
Bhutan
Benin
Belize
Belgium
Belarus
Barbados
Bangladesh
Bahrain
Bahamas
Azerbaijan
Austria
Australia
Armenia
Argentina
Antigua & Barbuda
Angola
Andorra
Algeria
Albania
Afghanistan
Western Sahara(Occupied by Morocco)
Montenegro
Isle of Man
Jersey
Guernsey
Monaco
Gibraltar
Seychelles
Russia
Hong KongMacau
Russia
Indonesia
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
Wake Island
Marshall Islands
Federated Statesof Micronesia
Nauru
Tuvalu
CoralSeaIslands
New Caledonia
Norfolk Island
French Polynesia
Pitcairn Islands
Kiribati
Tokelau
AmericanSamoa
CookIslands
Niue
Economic Risk: Very High•Several industries in Ukraine are still dominated by the
state. These state-owned enterprises dampen competition andincreaseinefficiency.Structuralreformswillbeneeded to improve the business environment and attract foreign investment.
•Russia’soccupationofCrimea,andtheongoingconflictinEastern Ukraine, has hurt economic growth. Because of continued Russian sanctions and new trading agreements, the EU has replaced Russia as Ukraine’s main trading partner, which should help the bolster economy.
•Challenges for Ukraine include the slow pace of reforms, persistentpoliticalinstability,double-digitinflation,ongoingarmedconflictinpartsofthecountry,influentialoligarchs,a high public debt burden, and widespread corruption.
Political Risk: High•The current president of the Ukraine is former foreign
trade minister Petro Poroshenko. He won the May 2014 elections with approximately 55% of the vote. President Poroshenko faces a challenging political environment in which he must facilitate economic reform and handle Russian interference.
•Ongoingreformmeasureswillbedifficulttoenactowingtoa decreasing appetite for such measures, especially ahead of the upcoming presidential and legislative elections in 2019.
•The country suffers from high levels of corruption, ranking 130 out of 180 countries in the most recent Transparency International Corruption Survey. As a result, parliament set up a High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC). Under a new law,appealsincorruptioncasesfiledbytheNationalAnti-Corruption Bureau cannot be considered by courts other than the HACC.
•Ukraine entered into a USD17.5 billion four-year Extended Fund Facility with the IMF in March 2015. Despite importantachievementsinthefinancialandenergysectors, the country has made limited progress privatizing state-owned enterprises.
Financial System Risk: Very High•The insurance industry is regulated by the Insurance
Supervision Division of the State Commission for Regulation of Financial Services Markets.
•Ukraine recently raised USD3 billion in an oversubscribed bondissue,thefirstsovereignbondissuesincethecountry restructured its debt in 2015.
•Efforts to strengthen the banking sector continue. According to the IMF, nearly 90 insolvent banks, accounting for more than 50% of the banking system’s assets, have been resolved. However, additional measures are needed, including stronger efforts to resolve the high levels of non-performing loans and the need to address weak banking supervision.
Economic Growth (%)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real GDP CPI Inflation
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and A.M. Best
Political Risk SummaryScore 1 (best) to 5 (worst)
0
1
2
3
4
5International Transactions
Policy
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Business Environment
Labor FlexibilityGovernment Stability
Social Stability
Regional Stability
Legal System
UkraineWorld Average
Source: A.M. Best
Ukraine
GDP Per Capita and Population
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Poland Russia Slovenia
USD
Millions
GDP Per Capita Population
Source: IMF and A.M. Best
BEST’S COUNTRY RISK REPORT
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