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Difference of Leisure behavior between sunny day and rainy day
Tokyo Tech Team B
Kamegai, Kikuchi, Shinohara, Tsuru, Mizuguchi
TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
Introduction
If rainy, I guess leisure activity is…
• Go to a place near their house and not go to far place
• Change their means of transport
See the influence on distance for leisure activity caused by weather.
TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
0.652
0.517
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Sunny day Rainy day
Nu
mb
er(/
day
/per
son
)
Basic Analysis
6956.4897426.936
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Sunny day Rainy day
Dis
tan
ce(m
)Trip Distance
Trip distance is almost equal
Sunny day: Trip numbers are large
Trip Numbers
Future works: Research the influence of leisure caused by weather
TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
・Most of data are from the middle class(36-45).・6 people (20%) are unanswered.
→Precision is low, and we cannot count them in variable.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1 2 3
Nu
mb
er
of
pe
rso
n
Number of trips
rainy day
28-35
36-45
46-54
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3
Nu
mb
er
of
pe
rso
n
Number of trips
sunny day
28-35
36-45
46-54
Age
Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
A man has more number of the trips per 1 tour than a woman.
1.8137
1.613
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Nu
mb
er o
f tr
ips(
/a t
ou
r)
sex
Number of trips
men women
Sex
Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
The destination is limited to the available place even on a rainy day.→Movement distance and total required time get longer.
2690.243
2839.377
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
2850
2900
sunny rainy
tim
e(se
c)
climate
Total Required Time
Total Required Time to arrive at the destination
Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
On a rainy day, we use public transport to avoid rain even if we need to pay money.→More costly
297.143
370.065
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Tota
l Co
st(y
en)
climate
Total Cost
sunny rainy
Total Cost
Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
𝑈1 = 𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋1 ∗ 𝑆1 + 𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸1 ∗ 𝑇1 + 𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇1 ∗ 𝐶1 + 𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁1 ∗ 𝑅1𝑈2 = 𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋2 ∗ 𝑆2 + 𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸2 ∗ 𝑇2 + 𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇2 ∗ 𝐶2 + 𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁2 ∗ 𝑅2𝑈3 = 𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋3 ∗ 𝑆3 + 𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸3 ∗ 𝑇3 + 𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇3 ∗ 𝐶3 + 𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁3 ∗ 𝑅3
List Item
𝑆𝑛 SEX (DUMMY)
𝑇𝑛 TOTAL TRAVEL TIME
𝐶𝑛 TOTAL COST
𝑅𝑛 RAIN (DUMMY)
・To utilize the 3 elements of the foregoing as an explanatory variable
Activities are different from weather→Introduction of “𝑅𝑛”(Rain dummy) as a dummy variable.
Result of estimation TSUTokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
Value Std err t-test P-value
𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁1 0.854 0.397 2.15 0.03
𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁2 -0.116 0.449 -0.26 0.80
𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋1 1.83 0.285 6.43 0.00
𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋2 1.18 0.293 4.04 0.00
𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇1 0.000597 0.000305 1.96 0.05
𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇2 0.000562 0.000246 2.28 0.02
𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸2 -0.0239 0.00532 -4.49 0.00
𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸2 -0.0157 0.00497 -3.15 0.00
RAIN1 is + and that of RAIN2 is - : The weather influences the first actionCOST is +:It becomes easy to move so as to take cost
In t-test,
Policy TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
1.Shortening of the movement time:・Increasing number of service of the public transport・Increasing facilities which are available on a rainy day
2.Restraint of the movement expense・Discounting in a destination and public transport
3.Environmental maintenance for women to be easy to go out
Simulation TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
・Will the number of the trips increase if they discount 20% of fares of the railroad?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
no discount
20% discount
Proportion of the number of trips (%)
fare
s
Number of trips
1
2
3
If they discount 20% of fares of the railroad , the proportion of person with number of the trips per a tour more than 3 doubles.
Policy TSU Tokyo Tech
Transport Studies Unit
ex.)Increase flights of buses on a rainy day(遠州鉄道バス)If the probability of rain tomorrow of the day before 11:00 is more than 50% , they increase flights buses at some routes.
APPENDIX: Results of Nested LogitName Value Std. Error T-test
𝛽𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛1 0.854 0.394 2.17
𝛽𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛2 -0.116 0.448 -0.26
𝛽𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛3 0 Const.
𝛽𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑑𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑦1 1.83 0.285 6.44
𝛽𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑑𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑦2 1.18 0.293 4.04
𝛽𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑑𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑦3 0 Const.
𝛽𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡1 0.000597 0.000305 1.96
𝛽𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡2 0.000562 0.000246 2.28
𝛽𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡3 0 Const.
𝛽𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒1 -0.0239 0.00532 -4.49
𝛽𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒2 -0.0157 0.00497 -3.15
𝛽𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒3 0 Const.
𝜇 1.00 1.8*10308 0.00
Single Multi
Twice More than 3 times
Once
𝜇
Parameter result is not appropriate