Two Theories about Congress

In Congress, Pork Stays on Menu In Congress, Pork Stays on Menu (Washington Post headline) (Washington Post headline)

Can Congress pass legislation that is in the Can Congress pass legislation that is in the public interest?public interest? Fiorina– purposive theoriesFiorina– purposive theories Bessette- serious lawmakersBessette- serious lawmakers

What skills or attributes do we want in a President?

The Impossible Presidency?

We want presidents who areWe want presidents who are Powerful, but we place limits on powerPowerful, but we place limits on power Kind and caring/ruthless and cunningKind and caring/ruthless and cunning Common person/ Hero or visionaryCommon person/ Hero or visionary Above politics/master politicianAbove politics/master politician Unify nation/make tough decisionsUnify nation/make tough decisions Have vision thing/responsive to will of peopleHave vision thing/responsive to will of people

President- Great Expectations

EconomyEconomy World peaceWorld peace EducationEducation EnvironmentEnvironment Health careHealth care MoralityMorality Heating oil pricesHeating oil prices Vision thingVision thing

Many Roles for President

Chief of State Chief of State Manager of the Economy Manager of the Economy Chief Executive Chief Executive Commander-in-Chief Commander-in-Chief Chief Diplomat Chief Diplomat Chief Legislator Chief Legislator Chief of the Party Chief of the Party World LeaderWorld Leader

Presidential Power

Empirical QuestionEmpirical Question How powerful is the president?How powerful is the president?

Normative QuestionNormative Question How powerful should the president be?How powerful should the president be?

Methods of Presidential Candidate Selection Caucus System (1789 -1830’s) Caucus System (1789 -1830’s) National Convention (since 1830’s) National Convention (since 1830’s) Primary Elections (Present) Primary Elections (Present)

FrontloadingFrontloading

Implications of Primaries

Weakens gatekeeper role for parties (Buchanan, Weakens gatekeeper role for parties (Buchanan, Forbes, Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson)Forbes, Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson)

Gives power to ideological activistsGives power to ideological activists Different type of candidate running (McCain)Different type of candidate running (McCain) Diminish electability (Gays in military, Private Diminish electability (Gays in military, Private

school in SC)school in SC) Hurt governability (read my lips)Hurt governability (read my lips) popular mandate from people, not Partypopular mandate from people, not Party

New Democrat, compassionate conservativeNew Democrat, compassionate conservative

National Elections

Electoral CollegeElectoral College Election strategyElection strategy Partisan LockPartisan Lock DisenfranchisementDisenfranchisement False mandatesFalse mandates

Clinton in 1992 43% of vote, 68.8% of ECClinton in 1992 43% of vote, 68.8% of EC Chance of a Misfire?Chance of a Misfire?

55.1%57.4%

49.7%

61.1%

43.4%

61.0%

50.1% 50.7%

58.8%

53.4%

43.0%

49.3% 48.1%52.4%

69.7%

76.4%

45.5%

80.5%

52.9%

86.4%

50.6%

87.3%83.6%

69.2%

60.0%64.4%

53.5%

67.7%

82.2%84.9%

56.3%

90.3%

55.9%

96.4%

55.3%

90.8%

97.6%

79.1%

68.8% 68.4%

50.4%

75.1%

1952

R

1956

R

1960

D

1964

D

1968

R

1972

R

1976

D

1980

R

1984

R

1988

R

1992

D

1996

D

2000

R

Ave

rage

Winner % of Popular Vote Winner % of District System Winner % of Unit System

1968

1972

1976

1980

1988

1992

1996

2000 Battleground States

Presidential Elections

LongLong ExpensiveExpensive Discourages good candidates?Discourages good candidates? Potential source of Power?Potential source of Power? Predictions for 2000Predictions for 2000

Constitutional Basics

Normative ?-- Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Engergy in the Executive Engergy in the Executive one person officeone person office elected for a fixed termelected for a fixed term national constituencynational constituency Vague formal powers from ConstitutionVague formal powers from Constitution

Evolution of the Presidency

1800-1933 Period of Congressional 1800-1933 Period of Congressional SupremacySupremacy Main federal policies were very Main federal policies were very

individualized or particularisticindividualized or particularistic E.g. -roads or canals, tariffs for particular E.g. -roads or canals, tariffs for particular

industriesindustries President is chief clerkPresident is chief clerk

The Modern Presidency

Great Depression, 38% unemploymentGreat Depression, 38% unemployment More interventionist role for governmentMore interventionist role for government Entitlement programs like SS, farm Entitlement programs like SS, farm

supports, right to organize createsupports, right to organize create Political constituency for Pres powerPolitical constituency for Pres power Organizational basis for Pres powerOrganizational basis for Pres power

Media=Direct link betw Pres and peopleMedia=Direct link betw Pres and people

Hallmarks of the Modern Presidency Increased Popular Linkage with PublicIncreased Popular Linkage with Public

Going PublicGoing Public Presidential SelectionPresidential Selection

Increased institutional powersIncreased institutional powers Creation of Institutional PresidencyCreation of Institutional Presidency War-makingWar-making

Presidential Approval

Going Public StrategyGoing Public Strategy Gallup Poll since 1948Gallup Poll since 1948

““Do you approve or disapprove of the Do you approve or disapprove of the way ___ is handling his job as president”way ___ is handling his job as president”

Why the Framers would be horrifiedWhy the Framers would be horrified

Public Approval of President

HoneymoonHoneymoon General declineGeneral decline EconomyEconomy Rally events and scandalsRally events and scandals Beyond Presidential ControlBeyond Presidential Control

Does PopularitySuccess?

Eisenhower and Bush– popular presidentsEisenhower and Bush– popular presidents Nixon and Ford– unpopular presidentsNixon and Ford– unpopular presidents Clinton’s uneven recordClinton’s uneven record Truman, “A man who is influenced by the Truman, “A man who is influenced by the

polls or is afraid to make decision which polls or is afraid to make decision which may make him unpopular is not a man to may make him unpopular is not a man to represent the welfare of the country”represent the welfare of the country”

Institutional Presidency

Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistantsJefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants Brownlow CommitteeBrownlow Committee

““The president needs helpThe president needs help”” President not Congress should be in charge President not Congress should be in charge

of executive branchof executive branch

Implications of Instit. Pres

Radical change in system of government?Radical change in system of government? Increased presidential control of policy Increased presidential control of policy

making and centralization of the decision making and centralization of the decision makingmaking

Increases potential for screw upsIncreases potential for screw ups Iran ContraIran Contra

Reduced accountabilityReduced accountability

Ranking Post WW II Presidents

Good/GreatGood/Great TrumanTruman EisenhowerEisenhower JFKJFK

– LBJLBJ– ReaganReagan– ClintonClinton

Bad/FailuresBad/Failures NixonNixon FordFord CarterCarter BushBush

World’s Greatest Clerkship

Neustadt, 1960 Presidential PowerNeustadt, 1960 Presidential Power power of president do not flow from power of president do not flow from

literary reading of constitutionliterary reading of constitution "The conditions that promote his "The conditions that promote his

leadership in form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in fact." leadership in fact."

““presidential power is power to persuade”presidential power is power to persuade”

Informal Powers

Professional reputationProfessional reputation Electoral resultsElectoral results BargainingBargaining

Carrot and the stickCarrot and the stick Marshalling public opinion (going public)Marshalling public opinion (going public)

Presidential War-making

Madison-- Madison-- the power to declare war is fully the power to declare war is fully and exclusively vested in the legislatureand exclusively vested in the legislature Congress- declare warCongress- declare war Pres C-in CPres C-in C

Two Presidencies ThesisTwo Presidencies Thesis War Powers ResolutionWar Powers Resolution

Presidential Power- 2 views

It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to do It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to do anything that the needs of the nation demanded unless anything that the needs of the nation demanded unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." T. Rooseveltsuch action was forbidden by the Congress." T. Roosevelt

"The President [may] assume just about as much power "The President [may] assume just about as much power as he is capable of handling." JFKas he is capable of handling." JFK

The president can exercise no power which cannot be The president can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of power .. either in the federal constitution or in an act of power .. either in the federal constitution or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined residuum of power Congress. There is no undefined residuum of power which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest. William Taft 1916.the public interest. William Taft 1916.

Normative Question

FDR, JFK, Savior model- 1950s and 60sFDR, JFK, Savior model- 1950s and 60s LBJ, Nixon Satan model, or Imperial LBJ, Nixon Satan model, or Imperial

PresidencyPresidency Ford, Carter Sampson modelFord, Carter Sampson model Reagan– partisan presidencyReagan– partisan presidency

Neustadt vs. MiroffNeustadt vs. Miroff

Barber on Presidential Character

Voters should ask 2 questionsVoters should ask 2 questions

1. How much energy does the president 1. How much energy does the president invest in his presidency invest in his presidency

2. Relatively speaking, does he seem to 2. Relatively speaking, does he seem to experience his political life as happy or sadexperience his political life as happy or sad

 Positive Negative

Active Jefferson, FDR, JFK, Truman, Ford, Bush Carter, Clinton

Adams, Wilson, Hoover, LBJ, Nixon

Passive Madison, Taft, Harding, Reagan

WashingtonCoolidge, Eisenhower

Limits of Barber’s theory

No basis in psychology or Personality No basis in psychology or Personality theory theory

Easy to apply? Aren’t all candidates Easy to apply? Aren’t all candidates energetic? energetic?

Healthy political personality is no predictor Healthy political personality is no predictor of political success of political success

Book of the WeekBook of the Week David Maraniss; First in His ClassDavid Maraniss; First in His Class