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TURKISH STATE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS DIVISION
Dr. Abdullah CEYLAN
Acting Director of Meteorological Disasters Division
10 September 2014
Durres - Albania
DATABASE FOR METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS
3 3 June 1948 – Amasya - 92 people died
Disasters on the news
4
Disasters on the news
Newspaper archive:
1919- present
11 September 1957 133 people died
ELECTRONIC LIBRARY
Inguiry
Topics
Abstracts
Hazard and impact maps related to observed meteorological disasters
for the period of 1940-2013 over Turkey.
Hazard Maps for Meteorological Disasters
Temporal and Spatial Distribution of
Meteorological Disasters
Recurrence analysis of extreme meteorological events for 2,
5, 10, 20, 50 and 100-year intervals.
Recurrence Analysis of Extreme Events
IMPACT OF FLOOD ON AGRICULTURE (1940-2010)
IMPACT OF FLOOD ON AGRICULTURE (1940-2010)
11
IMPACT OF FLOOD ON TRANSPORTATION (1940-2010)
Meteorolojik Afet Etki Haritaları
Impact of Meteorological
Disasters on Settlements (2012)
Preparation of Annual Assesment Report
Annual bulletin will be prepared on frequency and intensity
of observed meteorological disasters as well as loss of life and property resulting from these disasters.
Early Meteorological Warning System for Forest Fires (MEUS)
Works related to Early Meteorological Warning System for Forest
Fires (MEUS) being implemented in coordination with General
Directorate of Forestry.
FORECASTING FLOOD
USING ECMWF/WRF
FORECAST DATA OF
PRECIPITATION
We have used only significant flood records which cause loss of life and economic
losses. Observations of extraordinary weather records related to some other hazards such as hail, avalanche, intensive rainfall have been archived in database servers at the Turkish State Meteorological Service since 1940.
Forecasting Urban Floods
Study on forecasting urban flood risk are in the preliminary phase.
In this study, it is aimed to predeterminate the areas which may
experience floods and to warn sectors to be effected. Threshold values
were computed for each station by using disaster records of 182 TSMS
stations for the period of 1980-2006 and 3-10 days’ precipitation
outputs of the ECMWF forecasting model (matrix of 153x49 grid points)
are used in the model.
17
18 09 February 2013 - Muğla
19
20
14-15 March 2013, Antalya
T.C.
ORMAN VE SU İŞLERİ BAKANLIĞI METEOROLOJİ GENEL MÜDÜRLÜĞÜ
DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION
23
T.C.
ORMAN VE SU İŞLERİ BAKANLIĞI METEOROLOJİ GENEL MÜDÜRLÜĞÜ
24/68
SPEI
Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration
Index
25
SPEI
-25
-20
-20
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-10
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
00
0
00
0
00
0
0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0 00
00
0
0
0 0 0 00 0
00
0 0
0
00
0
0 00
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0 00
0
0
000
0
00 0
0
55
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
55
5
5
5
5
5
55
55
5
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
1010 1
0
101
0
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
20
20
20
25
Yıl-Ay
Tim
e S
cale
(a)
17244 - Konya (PDSI)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2009
10
20
30
40
50
60
27
THANK YOU
Turkish State Meteorological Service Research Department
Meteorological Disasters Division