Trends in Biodiversity Indicators

Significant Technical Help:

• Keith Olsen• Etsuko Nonaka• Rob Pabst• Rebecca Kennedy• Jonathan Brooks• Mike McGrath• Matt Gregory

Northern Spotted Owl1996

Northern Spotted OwlBase Policy - 2046

Northern Spotted OwlBase Policy - 2096

Western Bluebird1996

Western BluebirdBase Policy - 2046

Western BluebirdBase Policy - 2096

Olive-Sided Flycatcher1996

Olive-Sided FlycatcherBase Policy - 2046

Olive-Sided FlycatcherBase Policy - 2096

Old-Growth Habitat1996

Old Growth HabitatBase Policy - 2046

Old Growth HabitatBase Policy - 2096

Moderate-High Habitat Quality for Owls, Old Growth, and Canopy Lichen Indices

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1996 2021 2056 2071 2096

Model Year

Per

cen

t of C

oas

t Ran

ge NSO

OG

Lichen

Change in Indicators for Coast Range for 100 Year Simulation under Base Practice

Low-Moderate Habitat Quality for Western Bluebird and Olive-sided Flycatcher Indices

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1996 2021 2056 2071 2096

Model Year

Per

cen

t of C

oas

t Ran

ge

WBB

OSFC

Change in Percent of Habitat for Coast Range for 100 Year Simulation under Base Practice

Thinning effects at Landscape Scales

Simulate Federal LandsWith and without Thinning

Area of Stands with Mean Diameter > 75 cm (30 in)

050000

100000150000200000250000300000350000400000

initial 25 50 75 100

Simulation Age

Hec

tare

s

Base

NFT

Comparison of Federal Thin and No-Thin AlternativesEntire Coast Range

58,000 ha

143,000 ac}

Wildlife Tree Retention Effects

Simulate Increased Rentention on Private Lands

Western Blue Bird

0123456789

10

1996 25 50 75 100

Simulation year

% C

oas

t R

ang

e

BSE NFT RET

Northern Spotted Owl

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1996 25 50 75 100

Simulation Year

% C

oast

Ran

ge

BSE NFT RET

Old Growth Index

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1996 25 50 75 100

Simulation year

% o

f C

oas

t R

ang

e

BSE NFT RET

Olive-sided Flycatcher

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1996 25 50 75 100

Simulation year

% C

oas

t R

ang

e

BSE NFT RET

Comparison of Alternatives

Ownership Patterns

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

Fed PI PNI+other State

Ownership

Are

a (h

a) high

moderate

low

Area of Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

Fed PI PNI+other State

Ownership

Are

a (h

a) high

moderate

low

Area of Bluebird Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

Fed PI PNI+other State

Ownership

Are

a (h

a) high

moderate

low

Area of Flycatcher Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice

Canopy Lichen Potential

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

Fed PI PNI+other State

Ownership

Are

a (h

a) high

moderate

low

Area of Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

Fed PI PNI+other State

Ownership

Are

a (h

a)

high

midhigh

midlow

low

Area of Old Growth Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice

1996

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-300 300+

Age Class

Per

cent

Lan

dsca

pe100 years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-300 300+

Age Class

Per

cen

t la

nd

scap

e

Age Class DistributionCurrent and After

100 years--Base Practice

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91

HCI

Hec

tare

s

Distribution of Old-Growth Index in 1996 for Coast Range

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96

HCI

He

ca

tre

s

Distribution of Old-Growth Index in 50 years for Base Practice Simulation for Coast Range

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1400001 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96

HCI

Hec

tare

s

Distribution of Old-Growth Index in 100 years for Base PracticeSimulation for Coast Range

LandscapePatterns

Vegetation Classes2096 – Projected

Base Policy

Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Vegetation Classes2096 – Projected

Base Policy

Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Vegetation Classes2096 – Projected

Base Policy

Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Conclusions

Area of mature and old-growth forest and habitat for associated Species is expected to increase strongly over the next 100 years

Low amounts of habitat for species requiring open structurallyDiverse forests—trends are flat

Despite 100 years amounts of older forest and structural conditions still probably below historical range of variation

Species diversity associated with hardwoods is projected to strongly decline

Conclusions

New landscape patterns developing that haveparticular ecological characteristics

Alternative policies may alter condition ofbiological diversity but further analysis is needed