Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy ... · 25 燃費平均値（実績 JC08ﾓｰﾄﾞ）燃費平均値（実績 10・ 15ﾓｰﾄﾞ）燃費基準（ JC08）

Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy in Japan

METI, Japan2018. Apr.

1.CO2 Emission and Energy Consumption of Transportation Sector in Japan

2.Policy Target and Concept

3.Policy for Improving Entire Fuel Economy

4.Policy Support for Penetration of ZEV

5.Next Step

2

Reducing CO2 emission from transportation sector is essential for achieving Japan’s INDC

CO2 total discharge1,150million(t)

2015(FY）

Transportationsector

(vehicle,ship etc.)217 million(t)

Industrial section435 million(t)

Operation section231 million(t)

Home section184million(t)

Others82 million(t)

CO2 emission (2015)

Source: Joint Meeting (METI’s committee and MOE’S council)(2018)

CO2 emission Million (t）

OthersFreight car/ BusPassenger car

Source：METI (ANRE)Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT

Transportation sector contributes to entire CO2 emission by 19% in Japan.

It is planned to be reduced by 25% in 2030. Comprehensive measures including ambitious fuel emission economy standard is needed.

Trend of CO2 emission in transportation sector

3

Source：METI (ANRE)Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT

4

Crude oil equivalent (Million kL）（year-to-comparison）

Half of energy consumption is from commercial vehicle.

Consumption from passenger car started decreasing after 2001.

(Reference) Trend of Energy Consumption in Transportation sector



120

100

80

60

40

20





5.Next Step

5

Even in 2DS scenario, 91% of automobiles are with combustion engine in the world in 2030. Balanced policy mix of improving entire fuel economy and policy support for penetration of ZEV is important.

For promoting OEMs’ effort for developing technologies based on each OEMs’ strength, technological neutrality is important. Mandating specific % of EV sales or supply could harm innovation and consumer benefit.

Balanced Policy Mix and Technological Neutrality are Important for Reducing entire CO2

Policy support for penetration of ZEV(Infrastructure, early stage financial incentive etc.)

Improving entire fuel economy

(CAFÉ approach)

+

• Source:IEA 「ETP(Energy Technology Perspectives) 2017」

＋

(Hundred million units)

Sales quantity

6

“Well to wheel” emission differs among countries with different generation mix.

For reducing “well to wheel” emission, energy policy for promoting zero emission power generation is needed.

In order for consumer to choose based on “well to wheel” emission, how to express fuel economy needs to be discussed.

Source: Global IEA EV Outlook 2017

Reducing “Well to Wheel” Emission

7

Japan set ambitious policy target of next generation cars’ penetration in 2030.

※These are not regulatory requirement for car makers.

While HEV has achieved target successfully already, achieving EV/PHV target of 20-30% and FCV target is a big challenge. Strong policy initiative is needed.

2017 2030

Conventional cars 63.97% 30～50%

Next generation cars 36.02% 50～70%

HEV 31.2% 30～40%

EVPHV

0.41%0.82% 20～30%

Fuel Cell Vehicle 0.02% ～3%

Clean Diezel Vehicle 3.52% 5～10%

EV・PHV stocks target• 1 Million EV/PHV stocks by 2020

「EV・PHV Roadmap 」（Mar, 23rd, 2016, ）

【Sources】Next Generation Vehicle Strategy 2010

Automotive Industry Strategy 2014

«Reference» New car passenger car unit sales: 4.386 million (2017)

「Hydrogen / Fuel Cell Strategy Roadmap (March 22, 2016」

FCV stocks target• Spread of about 40 thousand FCVs by 2020, about

200 thousand ones by 2025, about 800 thousand ones by 2030."」

Dissemination policy of Hydrogen infrastructure • About 160 places" by 2020 and "320 places" by

2025 will be installed.

Japan Set Ambitious Policy Target in 2030

8

By achieving 2030 target, energy consumption from transportation sector will be cut by 26% in Japan

9

HV２９％

EV・PHV１６％

FCV１％

CDV４％

Gasoline etc５０％

Crude oil equivalent (Million kL）

Prospect of Each car category’s stock ratio in 2030(FY)

Prospect of Supply and Demand of Energy

Source：relevant material of [Long-term Prospect of Supply and Demand of Energy]

By achieving 2030 target of next generation cars, half of automobiles in Japan will be replaced by next generation cars in 2030.

Energy consumption from transportation will be reduced by 26% in 2030.

Industrial

Operation

Home

Transportation

Source: Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT

(Reference) Next Generation car’s sale quantity(units)

Sources：METI made based on JAMA’s dateJoint council’s material by METI and MLIT

10

Sale of next generation vehicle increased steadily after “Next Generation Vehicle Strategy” was formulated in 2010 lead by steady increase of HEV sales.

11.0%12.0%

16.4%

21.2%23.2%

25.6%

32.3%

35.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009年度 2010年度 2011年度 2012年度 2013年度 2014年度 2015年度 2016年度

次世代自動車販売台数ハイブリッド自動車（HV）

電気自動車（EV）

プラグイン・ハイブリッド自動車（PHV）

燃料電池自動車（FCV）

クリーンディーゼル自動車（CDV）

次世代自動車比率

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Next Generation car’s sale units

Ratio of Next Generation Car

（%）

2009(FY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

（Million Units）

HV

CDV





5.Next Step

11

Fuel Economy regulation in Japan: CAFÉ, Top Runner Approach

12

Setting Target Standard and Target Achievement Evaluation（2020’s regulation）

Achieved if CAFE (weighted average according to the sales volume) exceeds the Target standard.

Five out of tenTarget standard

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpt

ion

Econ

omy

（Fu

el E

cono

my）

Conventional AConventional BConventional CConventional DConventional E…

Setting Target Standard（in each weight category）

Target Achievement Evaluation（Calculate each companies’ CAFÉ)

Five out of ten

Target standard is determined for the unified category in expectation

HEV AHEV BHEV CHEV DHEV E…

…HEVHEVHEV

ConventionalConventionalConventional Conventional

Ａ社

Highest Energy Economy

Highest EE

Accumulation of technology

Accumulation of technology

Japan has a fuel economy regulation based on Act on the Rational Use of Energy.

:Top runner approach, CAFÉ regulation

Source: Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT

13

Japan ‘s fuel economy has improved steadily and it has already achieved 2020 target (20.3km/l which is equivalent to CO2 emission of 122g/km).

Post 2020 fuel economy standard is under discussion in Japan since March 6th 2018.

Post 2020 Fuel Economy Standard is under discussion in Japan

Trend of each country’s CO2(FE) regulation

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Standard valueperformance

20年：122g/km*2

22年：113g/km*2

20年：117g/km*2

25年：97g/km*2

25年：（81g/km*1,2）

g/km）

17.8

19.4

21.0

21.7 21.6

（速報値）

21.9

12.112.4

12.9 13.213.5

14.014.6 14.7

15.0 15.115.5 15.7

16.5

17.818.3

19.5

21.1

22.5

23.8

20.3

16.8

13.0

10

15

20

25燃費平均値（実績 JC08ﾓｰﾄﾞ）

燃費平均値（実績 10・15ﾓｰﾄﾞ）

燃費基準（JC08）

燃費基準（10・15）

Trend of fuel economy(FE) standardand FE performance

Source：Based on MLIT’s dataJoint council’s material by METI and MLIT

※Trend is based on only gasoline cars

（km/）

Average FE (Performance:JC08)

Average FE(Performance:10・15)

Target standard value (10・15)

Target standard value (JC08)

Based on NEDC mode.*1：Calculated based 15% reduction compared to 2021`s （95g/km）*2: Performance by 2014 In Japan and U.S.A, Performance by 2015 In China, India, and EU. Source：The International Council On Clean Transportation 「CO2 emissions from new passengercars in the EU: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2016」





5.Next Step

14

EV・PHV (units) Public Charger (units)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EV PHV Public charger27,835

165,516

Subsidy scheme and trend of EV/PHV and Public chargers

Subsidy scheme for car purchase Subsidy scheme for charger installation

Subsidy for buying next generation vehicle and for installing infrastructure and Tax incentive (next page) are main policy tools for supporting penetration of ZEV.

＄10

＄2000

i.g,＄4,000 for Leaf

15

Graph1

201220122012

201320132013

201420142014

201520152015

201620162016

Public charger

EV

PHV

5907

33707

16920

7366

49301

29892

8915

64938

44606

12599

78852

59603

27835

92066

73450

充電器数

急速・普通充電器の基数についてキュウソクフツウジュウデンキキスウ

（単位：基）タンイモトイ

20122013201420152016

急速キュウソク1,1531,6742,0974,8607,108

普通フツウ4,7545,6926,8187,73920,727

Public charger5,9077,3668,91512,59927,835

（単位：台）タンイダイ

20122013201420152016

EV累積販売台数ルイセキハンバイダイスウ33,70749,30164,93878,85292,066

PHV累積販売台数ルイセキハンバイダイスウ16,92029,89244,60659,60373,450

充電器数

Public charger

EV

PHV

201703_都道府県別

2016年3月末時点　充電器件数ジテンジュウデンキケンスウ

都道府県コード都道府県急速キュウソク普通フツウ

1北海道281885

2青森県79266

3岩手県119278

4宮城県129362

5秋田県97188

6山形県96237

7福島県193246

8茨城県185508

9栃木県153263

10群馬県185374

11埼玉県3461,118

12千葉県2821,444

13東京都2772,220

14神奈川県4061,450

15新潟県175458

16富山県90163

17石川県100351

18福井県77211

19山梨県69251

20長野県165528

21岐阜県154362

22静岡県226658

23愛知県3331,150

24三重県142272

25滋賀県114196

26京都府148415

27大阪府1801,068

28兵庫県272852

29奈良県74171

30和歌山県79194

31鳥取県74112

32島根県7547

33岡山県131171

34広島県130327

35山口県137255

36徳島県52118

37香川県61120

38愛媛県109140

39高知県78104

40福岡県278537

41佐賀県96145

42長崎県84180

43熊本県205414

44大分県88208

45宮崎県97181

46鹿児島県130277

47沖縄県57252

総計7,10820,727

CMキャプチャー画像

Sheet1

Financial support (Tax reduction)

Object/Requirement Tax Special measurement

EV,FCV,PHVCNG(Achieved 2018’s regulation or 2009’s regulation(10% NOx))CD(Achieved 2009’s or 2018’s regulation)

Automobile Acquisition Tax No Tax

Automobile Weight Tax (New car inspection,Continuedinspection)

Tax Exemption

FE performance（→）Emission performance（↓）

2015 FE standard 2020 FE standard

Achieved +5% +10%

Achieved

+10%

+20%

+30%

+40%

Gasoline(includeHEV),LPG

50% reduction to 2018’s regulationor75% reduction to 2005’s regulation

Automobile acquisitiontax

20%reduction

20%reduction

40%reduction

60%reduction

No Tax

Automobile Weight Tax

New car inspection

25%reduction

50%reduction

75%reduction

Tax Exemption

Continued inspection

Tax Exemption

2017

FE:fuel economySource: Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT 16

Present400km(200Wh/kg)

800 km(400Wh/kg)Target by 2025(All Solid State LIB）

EVs Travel range(Energy Density)

1000 km (500Wh/kg)Target after 2030（Innovative battery）

Promoting Battery R&D Projects

All Solid State LIB2018 - 2022

FY 2018 budget: JPY 1.6 billion (US$ 16 million)Responsible Organization: LIBTEC(Lithium IonBattery Technology and Evaluation Center) etc

For improving battery performance, the government supports R&D projects of next generation battery.

RISING22016 - 2020

FY 2018 budget: JPY 3.1 billion (US$ 31 million)Responsible organization: Kyoto University, AIST(※), Automotive companies, Battery Companies, Other Universities etc.

※National institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology

17

18

Formulating reuse and recycle system is important for utilizing battery’s value and conserving raw materials.

Automobile companies in Japan formulated voluntary collecting system about (NiMH and Li) battery.

Key factors:

1. Efficient collection and transportation scheme

2. Standardized evaluation of remaining battery capacity

Reuse and Recycle of Batteries

Collection Operators Dismantling Operators

Special Forwarding Agents

Car Owner(End of Life)

Battery

BatteryRecycling Plants(Recycle, Reuse, and Rebuild)

Export oversea(used car)

Selling to Material operators

Current system

V2G would increase value of EV batteries.

NEDO conducted field test of utilizing EV’s battery for providing ancillary service to the grid transmitting electricity from solar in Maui Island, Hawaii.

V2G

Period : 2011 Oct - 2017 FebPlace: Maui County, USAParticipants : 320 peoplePractitioner : HITACHI, NISSAN etcBudget : ¥6.4billion(≒ US＄60 million)Charger(DC) : CHAdeMO protocolMax voltage(DC) : 150~450VResult : This system shifts EV charging

peak to the time when more renewables are expected available.

19

Basic Hydrogen Strategy (key points)（Dec.26th,2017）

①②Main action as supply side ③Main action as user side

○ Vision with a view to 2050 + action plan up to 2030○ Hydrogen as a New Energy Option Along with Renewable Energy⇒ Leading the world‘s carbon free development with Japan's advanced hydrogen technology ○ Target: Realizing the same cost as gasoline and LNG

(Current: $ 1/Nm3⇒ $0.3/kg by 2030 ⇒ $0.2/kg by 2050)

○Mass importation by developing an international supply chain Promote the development of brown coal hydrogen

production and mass transport technology of hydrogen by international hydrogen transport project between Japan Australia / Brunei, aiming for commercialization around '30.

○ Commercialization of hydrogen power generation · Mass consumption Promoting demonstration and technology development towards

commercialization around 2030, such as the world's first hydrogen electric power plant (Kobe) commenced demonstration operation from the beginning of the year.

○Make maximun use of local renewable energy Toward the hydrogen base of Fukushima (Namie

Town), pioneering the future utilization of surplus renewable energy through demonstration of the world's largest renewable hydrogen production. Hydrogen from Fukushima is also used in Olympic games in 2020.

○Produce massive amount of hydrogen from cheap material

Utilizing brown coal(less than 1/10th of coal) and oversee renewable energy (about 1/10th of domestic’s)

① Make it cheap(=utilize overseas brown coal, surplus renewable energy etc)② Developing supply chain for mass production and transportation③ Mass usage(Automobile ⇒ Power Generation ⇒ industry)

【supply sides】

【user side】・・・

＜3 elements for reducing H2 cost＞

○ Accelerate dissemination of FCV/FC bus/hydrogen station ‘Toward self-sustainable business regarding FCV in the latter

half of the 2020s,① Low cost technology development (reduce Station cost by half by 2020),② Regulatory reform (realization of station unattended, etc.),③ Advance strategic improvement of the station (a new company established this spring is accelerating development) Horizontal deployment of hydrogen utilization not only for FCV

but also for buses, forklift trucks, trucks, ships, etc

20

Support HRS installations and promote creating new FCV demand.

Installation Fuel Cell

Phase 1H2 Power Plant/

Mass Supply Chain

Phase 2CO2-free Hydrogen

Phase 3

Focus on implementation from the present Realized in the late 2020s Realized in around 2040

Disseminate stationary FCs Disseminate FCVs

Subsidies for Stationary FCs [8.9 billion yen]

Promote the accelerated introduction and cost reduction of Ene-farm.From FY 2017, support for stationary FC for business and industrial use is added .

Subsidies for HRSs[5.7 billion yen]

Support for FCVs[Included in 15 billion yen]

R&D of FCs[2.9 billion yen]Conduct R&D for better performance and lower costs of FCs, and demonstrate stationary FCs for business use

Stationary FC for business use

R&D of FC, etc.

Develop technologies forlower costs and safety of HRSs, and collect data for reviewing regulations.

Build a H2 supply chain

Demonstrate how hydrogen can be produced from untapped overseas energy resources, transported in the form of liquefied hydrogen or organic hydride, and used to generate power. Implement P2G field tests, etc.

R&D of H2 production, transport and storage

R&D for producing, transporting and storing H2 derived from renewable energy

[0.9 billion yen]Develop technologies of high efficiency water electrolysis units, tanks for storing liquefied hydrogen, etc. with the use of renewable energy sources.

R&D of HRSs[2.4 billion yen]

Demonstrations for global H2 supply chain 9.4 billion yen]

Budget for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in FY 2018

21





5.Next Step

22

Automobile Strategic Committee

• Minister Seko (Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry) started “Automobile Strategic Committee” on 18th April to set Japan’s automobile industry’s strategy for solving global issues related to mobility.

• Issues to be discussed:Strategic action toward “CASE”Promoting innovation of battery industryPromoting electrified vehiclesEcosystem of batteryIntegration of automobile policy and energy policyTransforming automobile supply chainDigitalization and standardization of car development

23

Committee MembersOEM: CEO of Toyota, Honda, Nissan, MazdaSupplier: CEO of Akebono brakeScientist: Zempachi Oguimi Professor Kyoto University, etcInvestor: Hiromichi Mizuno Board Menber of PRI, United Nationsn

Gen Isayama General Partner & CEO etc.

EVS31• The Electric Vehicle Symposium & Exhibition (EVS) is the world's largest

international exhibition and symposium for all fields related to Electric Vehicle (EV), such as battery electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCV).

Venue Kobe Convention Center, Kobe, Japan Kobe International Conference Center / Kobe International Exhibition Hall

Date September 30 - October 3, 2018 (4 days) Multilateral policy dialog on September 30th, 3:00PM – 5:00PM

Hosted by

Japan Automobile Research Institute (JARI)

Cooperation with

Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan (JSAE) World Electric Vehicle Association (WEVA) Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP)

Supported by

Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry of the Environment Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) , etc.

Contents a) Plenary session Opening & Closing ceremony, Keynote speeches, Panel discussion b) Technical Session (Oral and Dialogue session) held as EVTeC 2018* in conjunction with JSAE c) Exhibition & Ride-&-Drive d) Technical tour e) Welcome reception, Gala

24

Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy in Japanスライド番号 2スライド番号 3運輸部門のエネルギー消費の推移スライド番号 5スライド番号 6スライド番号 7スライド番号 8By achieving 2030 target, energy consumption from transportation sector will be cut by 26% in Japan(Reference) Next Generation car’s sale quantity(units)スライド番号 11Fuel Economy regulation in Japan: CAFÉ, Top Runner Approach 審議会のｐ２２右スライド番号 14スライド番号 15スライド番号 16スライド番号 17スライド番号 18スライド番号 19Basic Hydrogen Strategy (key points)（Dec.26th,2017）スライド番号 21スライド番号 22スライド番号 23EVS31

Documents

Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy ... · 25 燃費平均値（実績 JC08ﾓｰﾄﾞ） 燃費平均値（実績 10・ 15ﾓｰﾄﾞ） 燃費基準（ JC08）

Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy ... · 25 燃費平均値（実績 JC08ﾓｰﾄﾞ）燃費平均値（実績 10・ 15ﾓｰﾄﾞ）燃費基準（ JC08）