Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to SE Florida FSUTMS Users Group by FDOT D4 PL&EM Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 8, 2009 Southeast

Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented topresented to

SE Florida FSUTMS Users GroupSE Florida FSUTMS Users Group

bybyFDOT D4 PL&EMFDOT D4 PL&EM

Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

May 8, 2009May 8, 2009

Southeast Florida Roadway & Transit User Cost Calculators

2

Agenda

Introduction

Travel Time Values

Vehicle Operating Costs

Transit Operating Costs

Calculator

Application Examples

Discussion

3

Purpose

Better assessment of transportation improvement benefits

• Systemwide− LRTP

• Corridor alternative comparison− Benefit/Cost Analysis

• Operational improvements− Cost of lane closures

− Value of early completion

The Calculator

Provides unit costs for various segmentations

Provides price escalation trends for future costs

Output FL and SE FL values

Allows for overwriting default inputs

Up to users to decide how to use it

4

Components

Travel Time Value (TTV)

• Auto; Truck

Transit User TTV− Bus; Tri-Rail; Metrorail

Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC)

• Auto; Truck

Transit Operating Cost

• Bus; Commuter Rail; Light Rail; Demand Response

5

6

Highway Components

RUC = TTV + VOCRoad User Cost = Travel Time Value + Vehicle Operating Cost

7

MethodologyTTV Market Segmentations

Segmentation TypeSegmentation Type Segmentation DetailsSegmentation Details

ModeMode Auto, Transit: Access and In/Out-VehicleAuto, Transit: Access and In/Out-Vehicle

OccupationalOccupational Commercial Vehicle DriversCommercial Vehicle Drivers

Purpose of TravelPurpose of Travel Personal/Visitor, Commute, Business (On-the-Clock)Personal/Visitor, Commute, Business (On-the-Clock)

Time of DayTime of Day Peak, Off-PeakPeak, Off-Peak

8

1: Travel Time Values

Based on hourly wage

• Personal trips 50%

• Commute trips 60%

• On-the-clock trips 100%

Base Figures in 2004$

9

Travel Time Value Validation Survey

Telephone survey, stated preference

5,000 random households

Miami-Dade to Indian River

Dec ’04 - Jan ’05

1,070 successful responses

Work trips: $10 - $13/hr

Non-work: 40% of wage

Transit User Travel Time Value

Trip purpose segmentation

• Personal travel/Visitor

• Commute

• On-the-clock

Time-of-Day segmentation

• Peak; off-peak

Based on transit on-board surveys

• 1999 SEFL Travel Characteristics Survey

• 2007 Tri-Rail On-Board Survey

• 2004 Metro-Rail On-Board Survey

• 2004 Metrobus On-Board Survey

10

11

Wage Projection

Annual Average Wage vs Year

y = 12.616x2 - 49273.473x + 48113252.192

R2 = 0.998

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Historical Average Wage

Fitted Wage Line

Wage Data is available from 1951 to 2006.

Regression Analysis indicates strong fit (R-square = 0.998).

According to Social Security Online (www.ssa.org), national median wage is about 70% of national average wage.

Future year TTVs are calculated based on projected median wages.

12

Travel Time Values (2004)

Commuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVsCommuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVs

Florida Florida MedianMedian

SoutheastSoutheastFloridaFlorida

% of % of Wage RateWage Rate

Hourly median wage (2000) $9.96/Hr $10.56/Hr

Personal (local) $5.52/Hr $5.86/Hr 50%

Personal (visitor) $6.00/Hr $6.00/Hr 50%

Commuter $6.63/Hr $7.03/Hr 60%

On-the-clock $11.39/Hr $12.08/Hr 100%

Annual median wages from 2000 census: SEFL = $21,975; FL = $20,721Median income is about 70% of average income.

13

Commercial Vehicle Travel Time Values (2004)

On-the-Clock TTVsOn-the-Clock TTVsFlorida Florida MedianMedian


Hourly median wage (2000) $9.96/Hr $10.56/Hr

Hourly median wage (2004) $11.39/Hr $12.08/Hr Annual median wages from 2000 census: SEFL = $21,975; FL = $20,721Median income is about 70% of average income.

14

Transit User Travel Time Values (2004)

Commuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVsCommuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVs

Florida Florida MedianMedian


% of % of Wage RateWage Rate

Median Transit User Wage (2000) $9,094 $9,644

Hourly (2000) $4.37/Hr $4.64/Hr

Commuter $3.57/Hr $3.78/Hr 75%

Personal (local) $2.38/Hr $2.52/Hr 50%

Personal (visitor) $2.58/Hr $2.58/Hr 50%

On-the-clock $7.14/Hr $7.57/Hr 100%

15

2: Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC)

Adjustment FactorsAdjustment FactorsCost Cost ParametersParameters

16

Vehicle Operating Cost Assumptions

Vehicle class types – compact, mid-size, large, SUV, Minivan, and trucks

Driving range – 12,000-15,000 miles per year

Vehicle lifespan – 150,000 mi

Southeast Florida

• Urban setting

• Flat surface

17

Factors Affecting Vehicle Operating Costs

Cost Cost CategoryCategory

City vs. City vs. HighwayHighway

Pavement Pavement RoughnessRoughness GeographyGeography Vehicle Age Vehicle Age

Fuel Consumption Yes No Yes No

Maintenance and Repair Yes Yes Yes No

Tires No Yes No No

Depreciation Yes Yes No Yes

18

Default Assumptions

Urban settings assumed in South Florida

City conditions generate 35% more fuel consumption than highway conditions

About 3% annual price increase applied to maintenance and repairs based on historical (20-year period) CPI trends

Fuel Trends Regression

Crude Oil Price vs Year

y = 2E-46e0.0543x

R2 = 0.8161

$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

Pri

ce

Crude Oil

Fitted Crude Oil Price


Gas Price vs Year

y = 1.33380E-23e2.87708E-02x

R2 = 8.50203E-01

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

Ga

s P

ric

e (

ce

nts

)

Gas Price

Fitted Gas Price


Crude Oil Price vs. Gas Price

$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

Year

Cru

de

Oil

Pri

ce

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Ga

s P

ric

e

Crude Oil Gas

Correlation between Gas Price and Crude Oil Price is 0.97

CPI Regression

CPI vs Year

y = 4.428x - 8682.553

R2 = 0.996

0

50

100

150

200

250

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

CP

I

Historical CPI

Fitted CPI

23

Vehicle Operating Costs – Depreciation Cost

RegionRegion CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV

Annual ($) South Florida $1,805 $1,991 $4,031 $2,418 $4,269

South Florida (cents/mile) 12-15 13-16 27-33 16-20 28-35

Annual ($) Florida $1,809 $1,995 $4,039 $2,423 $4,278

Florida (cents/mile) 12-15 13-16 27-33 16-20 28-35

2004 $

24

Vehicle Operating Costs – Insurance Cost

RegionRegion CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV

Annual Avg. South Florida $1,147 $1,000 $917 $897 $963

Cents/mile 8-10 7-8 6-8 6-7 6-8

Annual Avg. Florida $1,100 $955 $877 $853 $925

Cents/mile 7-9 6-8 6-7 6-7 6-8

U.S. 1.4-8.6

2004 $

25

Vehicle Operating Costs – Fuel Cost

Region Region (cents/mile)(cents/mile)

Compact Compact MPG (24-34)MPG (24-34)

Mid-size Mid-size MPG (24-30)MPG (24-30)

Large Large MPG (17-25)MPG (17-25)

Minivan Minivan MPG (19-27)MPG (19-27)

SUV SUV MPG (16-21)MPG (16-21)

Southeast Florida 4-7 5-7 6-10 6-9 7-10

Florida 4-7 5-7 6-10 6-9 7-10

U.S. 6.1-8.3

$/gallon = $1.53-$1.65 (2004)

26

Vehicle Operating Costs – Financial Charges

RegionRegion(cents/mile)(cents/mile) CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV


Florida 2-4 2-4 3-5 3-5 4-6

U.S. 4.4-7.4

Average interest rate = 4.45% (2004)Financial Charges = Interest on vehicle loan

27

Vehicle Operating Costs – Fuel Tax

Region Region (cents/mile)(cents/mile) CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV


Florida 1-2 1-2 2-3 2-3 2-3

U.S. 1.8- 4.1

Federal = 18.4 cents/gallonState = 14.3 cents/gallonLocal = 6-12 cents/gallon

28

Vehicle Operating Cost ComponentsMid-size Auto

Cost ItemsCost ItemsAnnual VOCAnnual VOC VOC in cents/mileVOC in cents/mile

SEFLSEFL FLFL SEFLSEFL FLFL

Fuel CostFuel Cost $1,160$1,160 $1,160$1,160 9.79.7 9.79.7

Fuel TaxFuel Tax $275$275 $259$259 2.32.3 2.22.2

Maintenance and RepairsMaintenance and Repairs $259$259 $259$259 2.22.2 2.22.2

TiresTires $119$119 $119$119 1.01.0 1.01.0

InsuranceInsurance $1,078$1,078 $1,020$1,020 9.09.0 8.58.5

Total DepreciationTotal Depreciation $1,632$1,632 $1,632$1,632 13.613.6 13.613.6

Finance ChargesFinance Charges $479$479 $481$481 4.04.0 4.04.0

License and RegistrationLicense and Registration $51$51 $51$51 0.40.4 0.40.4

Total Annual CostsTotal Annual Costs $5,054$5,054 $4,981$4,981 42.142.1 41.541.5

2004 $

29

Auto and Commercial VOC (2004)

FloridaFlorida Southeast FloridaSoutheast Florida

Per Mile Per Mile

CostCostAnnual Annual

CostCostPer Mile Per Mile

CostCostAnnual Annual

CostCost

Small $0.395 $4,741 $0.389 $4,666

Median $0.421 $5,054 $0.415 $4,981

Large $0.540 $6,481 $0.534 $6,412

Single-Unit Truck $0.488 $48,789 $0.484 $48,435

Combination-Unit Truck $0.710 $71,047 $0.707 $70,652

Fleet Average $0.552 $12,657 $0.518 $9,327

Transit Operating Costs

Service and cost data obtained from National Transit Database (NTD) - Federal Transit Administration

Modes:

• Bus; Demand Response; Commuter Rail; Light Rail

Data:

• Services: passenger trips; revenue hours; revenue miles

• Costs: operators’ wage; material and supplies; utilities; insurance; tax; purchased transportation; ADA related expense; other expenses.

Unit cost = (total costs)/(total services provided)

31

Transit Vehicle Operating Costs (2004)

Southeast Florida Transit Vehicle Operating CostsSoutheast Florida Transit Vehicle Operating Costs

BusBus

Demand Demand Response Response

(DO)(DO)

Demand Demand Response Response

(PT)(PT)Commuter Commuter

RailRailLight Rail Light Rail (Tampa)(Tampa)

Total Expense (thousand) $437,916 $4,560 $110,817 $31,414 $1,608

Total Passenger Trips (thousand) 129,010.2 270.5 3,029.4 2,674.6 520.2

Total Revenue Miles (thousand) 57,519.7 1,338.0 30,147.6 2,685.1 174.3

Total Revenue Hours (thousand) 4,411.0 98.1 2,077.9 77.6 36.0

Cost / Passenger Trip $3.2 $16.86 $36.58 $11.7 $3.1

Cost / Revenue Mile $7.1 $3.4 $3.7 $11.7 $9.2

Cost / Revenue Hour $93.0 $46.5 $53.3 $404.8 $44.6

32

3. Calculators

Auto and Commercial Vehicle User TTV Calculator

Transit User TTV Calculator

Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator

Transit VOC Calculator

Purpose of Calculators

Provide LOCAL data values

Analysis for different years / horizons

Ability to change defaults

• Fuel prices

• Fleet composition – increase in small vehicles?

• Others…

34

Calculator Main Panel

35


Input

• Current year/target year

• Wages (optional)

• Inflation factors (optional)

• TTV segmentations (optional)

Output - Auto and Commercial Vehicle User TTV by

• Geographic level

• Trip type

• Trip purpose

• Vehicle type

• Time of day

36

Input page

…


37 …


Output page

38


Input

• Current Year/Target Year

• Wages (optional)

• Inflation factors (optional)

• TTV markets

Output - transit user TTV by

• Geographic level

• Transit mode

• Trip type

• Trip purpose

• Waiting and transferring

39


…

Input page

40


Output page

41


Key Input

• Current fuel price

• Current year / target year

• Average travel speed

Output - annual cost and per mile cost by

• Cost component

• Total costs


Input Page…

…

43

SEFL FL SEFL FL SEFL FL SEFL FL SEFL FLPurchase (P) or Lease (L) P P P P P P P P P PVehicle Age (Years) 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5Speed (mph) 38 38 38 38 38 38 45 45 45 45Proportion of Highway Mileage over Total Milage 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 70% 70% 80% 80%Mileage per year 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000Fuel Cost $801 $801 $1,048 $1,048 $1,206 $1,206 $20,504 $20,504 $27,491 $27,491Fuel Tax $211 $198 $275 $259 $317 $298 $5,388 $5,071 $7,224 $6,798Maintenance and Repairs $259 $259 $259 $259 $324 $324 $6,364 $6,364 $8,537 $8,537Tires $117 $117 $119 $119 $151 $151 $3,061 $3,061 $3,998 $3,998Insurance $1,236 $1,172 $1,078 $1,020 $1,038 $986 $1,286 $1,246 $6,466 $6,486Total Depreciation $1,534 $1,534 $1,632 $1,632 $2,515 $2,515 $8,601 $8,601 $10,685 $10,685Finance Charges $450 $452 $479 $481 $739 $741 $1,313 $1,317 $3,609 $3,620License and Registration $46 $46 $51 $51 $61 $61 $62 $62 $72 $72

$4,655 $4,580 $4,941 $4,868 $6,351 $6,282 $46,579 $46,225 $68,084 $67,689

$7,983 $7,864 $8,410 $8,294 $9,337 $9,226 $92,774 $92,207 $127,458 $126,824

$0.388 $0.382 $0.412 $0.406 $0.529 $0.524 $0.466 $0.462 $0.681 $0.677

$0.665 $0.655 $0.701 $0.691 $0.778 $0.769 $0.928 $0.922 $1.275 $1.268

Annual Vehicle Operating Cost by Vehicle Size (2004 Value)

Annual Vehicle Operating Cost by Vehicle Size (2030 Value)

Co

st

Co

mp

on

en

ts

(20

04

$)

Small

Att

rib

ute

s

Geographic Level

$12,249Weighted SEFL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2004 Value)

Auto and Commercial Vehicle Annual Operating Cost

Vehicle Class Large Single-Unit Truck Combination-Unit Medium

Weighted FL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2030 Value) $15,615

$21,813

$9,066Weighted FL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2004 Value)

Weighted SEFL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2030 Value)

Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile by Vehicle Size (2004 Value)

Weighted SEFL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2004 Value) $0.533

Weighted FL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2004 Value) $0.502

Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile by Vehicle Size (2030 Value)

Weighted SEFL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2030 Value) $0.958

Weighted FL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2030 Value) $0.876

Back to Calculator Main SheetBack to Calculator Main Sheet


Output Page

44


Input Service Data

• Mode

• Route Length

• Weekday Service Schedule

• Weekend Service Schedule

• Update Cost Item (Optional)

Output – Transit Vehicle Operating Cost by:

• Mode

• Total Annual Service (Revenue Miles)

• Total Annual Operating Cost

• Annual Operation Cost per Revenue Mile

45


Southeast Florida - Equivalent 2004 Values

BusDemand

Response (DO)Demand

Response (PT)Commuter Rail

(CR)Light Rail (LR)

107,204,627 1,237,032 - - n.a. 95,062,476 1,029,951 2,594,443 4,717,459 n.a. 77,733,582 704,007 1,194,788 1,572,487 n.a. 35,931,192 549,691 543,748 6,160,060 n.a.

Fuel and Lube 40,766,150 459,673 - 3,628,571 n.a. Tires and Other 6,830,588 2,145 - - n.a. Others 31,040,346 36,505 50,858 376,870 n.a.

3,069,389 85,722 101,717 1,289,680 n.a. 6,514,890 387,580 - 1,497,406 n.a. 1,124,541 1,883 - - n.a.

In Report 1,698,729 - 69,573,796 12,171,648 n.a. Separate Report - - 36,730,063 - n.a.

3,350,662 65,474 27,903 - n.a. - - - - n.a. - - - - n.a. $ 437,916 $ 4,560 $ 110,817 $ 31,414 $ - 129,010.2 270.5 3,029.4 2,674.6 n.a. 57,519.7 1,338.0 30,147.6 2,685.1 n.a. 4,411.0 98.1 2,077.9 77.6 n.a. $ 3.2 $ 16.86 $ 36.58 $ 11.7 n.a. $ 7.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 11.7 n.a. $ 93.0 $ 46.5 $ 53.3 $ 404.8 n.a.

Miami-Dade - Equivalent 2004 Values

BusDemand

Response (DO)Demand

Response (PT)Commuter Rail Light Rail

75,360,684 - - - $ - 68,630,812 - 506,864 - $ - 51,838,267 - 133,054 - $ - 27,734,119 - - - $ -

Fuel and Lube 27,058,202 - - - $ - Tires and Other 5,811,317 - - - $ - Others 24,017,805 - - - $ -

2,280,186 - - - $ - 3,362,901 - - - $ - 1,123,630 - - - $ -

In Report - - 36,730,063 - $ - Separate Report - - 36,730,063 - $ -

2,670,813 - - - $ - - - - - $ - - - - - $ - $ 309,379,653 $ - $ 74,100,043 $ - $ - 82,203,498.0 - 1,555,446.0 - $ - 37,087,056.0 - 13,577,421.0 - $ - 2,970,540.0 - 912,920.0 - $ - $ 3.5 $ - $ 47.64 $ - $ - $ 7.8 $ - $ 5.5 $ - $ - $ 97.6 $ - $ 81.2 $ - $ -

Cost / Passenger TripCost / Revenue MileCost / Revenue Hour

Casualty and LiabilityTaxPurchased TransportationMisc Expense

Materials and Supplies

Utilities

Total Expense (Thousand)Total Passenger Trips (Thousand)Total Revenue Miles (Thousand)Total Revenue Hours (Thousand)

Cost Item

Op

era

tin

g E

xpe

ns

es

Operators' WageOther Salaries & WagesFringe BenefitsServices

Purchased TransportationMisc ExpenseExpense transferADA Related

Cost Item

Op

era

tin

g E

xpe

ns

es

Operators' WageOther Salaries & Wages

Expense transferADA Related

Fringe BenefitsServices

Materials and Supplies

UtilitiesCasualty and LiabilityTax

Cost / Passenger TripCost / Revenue MileCost / Revenue Hour

Total ExpenseTotal Passenger TripsTotal Revenue MilesTotal Revenue Hours


…

• By Region

• By County

• By State

• By Nation

46

Transit VOC Calculator Input Page


Output Page

Bus Vehicle Operating Cost

Total Annual Service (Revenue Miles)

Total Annual Operating Cost (1,000$)

Unit Operating Cost ($/Revenue Mile)

2008 Value 278,720 $1,677 $6.02

2030 Value 278,720 $2,459 $8.83


48

Reference Data

• Median/Average Wage

• CPI

• Crude Oil Price

• Gasoline Price

• Auto Price

• Vehicle Fleet Composition

• Transit User Income

• Bus Rider Income

• Tri-Rail Rider Income

• MetroRail Rider Income

• Vehicle Depreciation

• Vehicle Speed vs. Fuel Consumption

49

4. Sample Applications

1. Lane closure cost calculation

• Hypothesis scenario

• Additional cost for roadway users (TTV + VOC) resulted from lane closure

2. Trip cost comparison for Auto and Transit

• Cost for roadway user (TTV + VOC) and transit user (TTV + fare)

• Downtown Coral Springs to Fort Lauderdale

50

Sample Application 1

Left Lane Closure on I-595 from University Dr. to FTPK

• Conditions− 2009, 2 days, 2.2 miles

− AADT 227,000

− Average occupancy: 1.2 people per vehicle

− Average travel speed reduced from 55mph to 35mph

− TTV in 2009: $8.16 per hour

− VOC at 35mph: $0.471/mile; VOC at 55mph: $0.461/mile

• Costs− TTV increased : (2.2/35 – 2.2/55)*8.16*227,000*1.2*2 = $101,613

− VOC increased: ($0.471 – $0.461)*2.2*227,000*2 = $9,988

− Total cost = TTV + VOC = $111,601

51

Sample Application 2

Downtown Coral Springs to Fort Lauderdale

Discussion:

• what TTV should be used for the transit alternative?

• Value of Wait time?

Time Vehicle Dist.

Avg. Spd.

(mph)

Travel Time (mins

)TTV/ hour

Trip TTV

VOC/ mi

Trip VOC

Total Trip Cost

Peak Hour

Mid-size Car

20 miles

25 mph

48 $7.82 $6.26 $0.52$10.4

0$16.6

6

Bus10

mph120 $5.26

$10.52

-$2.50 fare

$13.02

Off-Peak Hour

Mid-size Car

40 mph

30 $7.76 $3.88 $0.45 $9.00$12.8

8

Bus16

mph75 $4.02 $5.03 -

$2.50 fare

$7.53

52

Discussion

Documents

Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to SE Florida FSUTMS Users Group by FDOT D4 PL&EM Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 8, 2009 Southeast