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Transitioning CMAQ for NWS Operational AQ Forecasting
Jeff McQueen*, Pius Lee*, Marina Tsildulko*, G. DiMego*, B. Katz*
R. Mathur,T. Otte, J. Pleim, J. Young, G. Pouliout, D. Wong, K. Schere(NOAA/ARL/ASMD & EPA)
P. Davidson(NWS/OST)
*NOAA/NCEPEnvironmental Modeling Center
Operational Requirements• Driven by NCEP Operational Meteorological Model (Eta-12)
• I/O Formats:– Only machine binary, GRIB and BUFR, disk space limitations
• Time Requirement:– 12 Z 48 hour forecast available by 17:25 Z (1:25 pm EDT)– 06 Z 48 hour forecast available by 13:00 Z ( 9 am EDT)– 65 IBM Power 4 procs available– 12 Z start after Eta is complete (14:30 Z)
• Robustness:– Thoroughly tested & evaluated with retrospective and real-time
experimental runs– Available to NWS Gateway, NDGD: 99% reliability, 24x7 NCEP support– Accuracy: 90% exceedence hit rate
Air Quality Forecasting Configuration for Operational
Implementation● NE Domain: 12 km 166x142x22 top at 100 mb
● 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O3) : 06 and 12 UTC runs
✔ Eta-Post corrections to Land-Use, vertical temperature interp
✔ Updated emissions inventories:
✔ Project 2002 point and area source inventories for 2004
✔ Updated Mobile Emissions using MOBILE6 inventory
✔ Simplified Temperature dependency on mobile emissions
✔ Use of GFS ozone for upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above 6 km
✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below
✔ 6 hour cycling
✔ Minimum Kz in CMAQ PBL set over rural areas to increase mixing and help reduce O3 overprediction at night (initiated on 7/22/04)
● Real-time Verification
● BUFR O3 and CMAQ output evaluated with VSDB/FVS system
Air Quality Forecasting Experimental Expanded Domain Configuration● Eastern US : 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O3) : 06 and 12 UTC runs
✔ 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies, 268x259x22) run in parallel
✔ Minimum Kz mixing
✔ Transformed grid to reduce interpolation error bet. Eta, emissions processor and CMAQ
✔ Expanded emissions inventories
✔ GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary
Conditions above 6 km
✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary
conditions below (Initiated on 8/3/04)
✔ Additional processors (~65) used
✔ 12 z Available by 17:30 UTC
Air Quality Forecasting Research Aerosol Domain Configuration
● Eastern US : 24 hour forecasts of O3 & Aerosols: 12 UTC run only
✔ Same system as operational except
✔ 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies) run
✔ Began July 16, 12z w/ 24 hr cycling
✔ Expanded emissions inventories
✔ GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above top 6 km
✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below
✔ 33 processors on Development Machine (less (less reliability, 8x5)
✔ Available by 21 UTC
00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18
soilozone
Forecast:etapremaqcmaq
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
48h
48h
48h48h
48h20 August 2003:NCO parallel implemented6h Cycling
GRIB outputto TOC
AIRNOW Ozone obs
With wrong land-use
With correct land-use
Land-use Coupling to Eta
Eta-Post Temperature Interpolation Error
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
285 290 295 300
eta
T hydrst
TV hydrst
Current Physics Coupling w/ NCEP Eta-12
Current
Capability
Met Model (Eta, NMM, WRF)
AQ Model (CMAQ)
Core E grid C Grid
Clouds Full Cloud Microphysics
Eta cloud water
Radiation GFS/NASA RRTM Derived from RH for photolysis
PBL Mellor-Yamada Pleim-Xu
Land Surface NOAH common Eta canopy conductance terms for Pleim-Xu
Air Quality Forecasting2004 User Access
✔ NE Domain (1x, O3) :
✔ Public: NDGD and TOC ftp server
✔ Surface ozone predictions
✔ State Forecasters: HPC web site
✔ Sfc O3 & met plots
✔ Daily (2pm) conference calls
✔ HPC forecasters trained
✔ Focus group: EMC web site
✔ Expanded met plots (pbl hgt, sw rad, ventilation index….)
✔ Sfc & upper level O3 and precurser plots (NOx, NOy,CO,SO2)
✔ ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone
✔ Experimental Domain (3x, O3):
✔ Focus group only: EMC Web page
Products
Predicted Sfc Ozone(1, 8h, max)
Eta cloud cover Eta PB L hgt
Air Quality Forecasting2004 Verification (1x and 3x)
✔ NCEP EMC FVS System :
✔ 1 and 8 hour O3 averages
✔ RMSE, Bias, STD, correlation coefficients Time series by fhr and day, subregion
✔ using EPA AIRNOW O3 network began 7/12/04
✔ FHO contingency exceedence stats (POD, FAR, threat scores)
✔ Began 8/1/04
✔ NWS/MDL
✔ Daily Spatial obs vs predicted exceedence maps
✔ Contingency exceedence stats since June 1
✔ NOAA/OAR/EPA
✔ Retrospective evaluations (8/12-19, 2003)
✔ RT:Similar Stats except stations averaged over CMAQ grid points
✔ ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone timeseries vs observations
NE DOMAIN Retrospective Evaluation
Maximum 1 Hr ozone Errors (Aug.12-19,2003)
Runs RMSE(ppb)
MAGE MNGE MNB MFB MB NMB NME R
NO GFS 15.37 11.81 21.85 11.76 7.96 4.88 8.15 19.71 0.64
W/ GFS 16.21 12.59 23.45 14.00 9.75 6.10 10.17 21.00 0.62
W/ GFSMobile6New pt/area
14.50Final2004
11.19 21.00 11.91 8.36 4.69 7.83 18.68 0.64
LU_flawd (2003 config)
22.84
2003
16.0 26.76 30.88 0.62
LUcorrect
16.42 7.45 12.43 21.04 0.63
Eta Real-Time VerificationAugust 2004
Temperature Downward SW
Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS time-series binned by FHR
RMSE Bias
Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS 36 h forecast time-series by day
RMSE Bias
Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS forecast by sub-region
BIAS 1x vs 3xNE, SE US
BIAS 1x vs 3xE. Canada, APL US
Real-Time VerificationNWS MDL Evaluation Predicted vs Obs Exceedence
Summary
● NCEP Currently running 3 systems:● Operational NE (1x) ● Experimental (3x)● Research Aerosols (3x)
● Retrospective and real-time results show improvements from 2003:
● Mean daytime bias reduced from ~17 to 5 ppb● Mean daytime rmse reduced from 22.8 to 14.5 ppb● However, still general overprediction in day, poorer
performance at night
FY05 Planned NCEP Runs
• Production (2x/day to 48 hrs) – Operational: Eastern U.S.(3x) Eta CMAQ-Ozone pending evaluation – Experimental: CONUS Eta/WRF CMAQ
• Improved Coupling w/ Radiation
– Development/Research – Eastern U.S. CMAQ w/WRF coupling
– Eastern U.S. retrospective aerosol runs
BACKUPS
NE DOMAIN Retros. Evaluation1 Hr Avg ozone Errors (8/12-19, 2003)
-92 -90 -88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -78 -76 -74 -72 -70 -68
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
-20 to -10 -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40
-92 -90 -88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -78 -76 -74 -72 -70 -68
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50
RMSE
Mean Bias
ICARRT Evaluation