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  • Management and Prediction DemandHomework : TOD

    Kwikiriza Bruce Chris

    Universiteit Hasselt

    December 18, 2015

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Contents

    1 Introduction

    2 PlanningSustainability and Development of TODs

    3 How TOD effects are measured

    4 Case Studies

    5 Thank you

    6 References

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Introduction

    Introduction

    Transit-oriented development (TOD) definitionMixed-use of residential and commercial area designed tomaximize access to public transport (Newman & Kenworthy,1988)often incorporates features to encourage ridershipcompact, mixed-use development near transit facilities andhigh-quality walking environments (Cervero, 2008)should be developed in higher density places.

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Introduction

    Figure 1 Focusing on density places

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Introduction

    Types of TOD

    According to Dittmar & Poticha, (2004),TODs include the following:urban neighborhoodurban downtown/urban centersuburban town centersuburban neighborhoodneighborhood transit zonecommuter town.special use/employment districtmixed-used corridor

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Introduction

    Figure 2 TODs development & planning

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Introduction

    Scientific questions

    What are the goals of TOD?How to implement and plan for TOD?How are the TOD goals measured?What indicators are used to measure the effects of TOD?Which effects must be taken into account?

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Introduction

    Objectives/Goals of TOD

    Enhance livability,Foster wider housing choices,Provide private development opportunities, saferneighborhoods,Reduce parking requirements,Improve air qualityPromote intermodal integration.

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Introduction

    It increases ridershipReduces automobile dependence item Increases sustainability.Promotes the integration of land use and transit facilities.It increases accessibility.Pedestrian safety since there is no traffic congestionIt Reduces congestion on the road networkIt reduces travel time

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Considerations while planning for TODs

    According to Boarnet & Compin, (1999) variables that shouldbe considered when planning for and implementingdevelopment around transit station areas include:Population and employment densityIntensity and diversity of land usesParking availabilityPhysical design of the streetconnectivity and accessibilityExhibit Compact Building Design

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Provide ranges of housing typesPromote walkable neighborhoodsExhibit a distinct sense of placePreserve open spaceUtilize existing developmentProvide transportation choicesPractice fair decision-makingPromote stakeholder participation

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Aspects to be focused on by Developers beforeCommisioning the Project (TODs)

    High density places with rail stops and bus stopsThe environmental and design factors are important aspects incontributing to the success of TOD projects.Assistance and cooperation of government agencies.The presence of adequate policies to address issues of trafficpollution and congestion (Cervero & Day, 2008) .Public and private sector involvementThe transit agencies and local land use promoters of TOD.Funding (Intensive capital)

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    Diversity (Land use mix)

    commercial Servicesretail servicesjobscommunity infrastructure(Cervero, & Kockelman, 1997)open space (Recreation)

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    Density(Land use)

    Higher density residential usesincrease vitality (Liveliness)provide more convenient access to public transport services.According to(Weisbrod & Treys, (2008) the following baselinedensity guidelines have been proposed.activity centers: 40120 dwellings per hectare (net) or greatersuburban and neighborhood locations: 3080 dwellings perhectare (net) or greaterpriority transit corridors: 40 dwellings per hectare (net) orgreater

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    Design(Ensuring development features)

    High-quality subtropical designmaximizes public amenities like schools, hospitals etc.Quality of streetspedestrian connectivityWalking and cycling laneshigh levels of accessibility

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    Barriers that Hinder the development of TODs

    The transit agencies developers under appreciate ability toovercome the land assembly.Project financing barriers (Limited intensive capital)Problem of converting capital investment into positiveoperating returnsPublic sector involvement and TOD developers arediscouraged by, community opposition to high-density places.unattractive locations and heavily industrialised neighborhoods.Fixation on automobile-oriented design (McNulty et al, 1997).

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    Importance of TOD

    It increases ridership / public transportIt increases revenues to Government.It reduces automobile usageIt reduces the volume of vehiclesIt reduces congestion on the roadIt offers a wide variety of housing/residential houses.

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    It reduces rent rates and thus increase in propertyvalues(Cervero et al., 2002)TODs contributes to a greater mix of land usesIt acts as a recreation centre like BARTs Pleasant Hill station.Increases the amount of housing, office space, and communityretail in close proximity to the station (Cervero et al., 2002)Reduces emission pollution

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    Effects of Transit oriented development

    Increases accessibilityIncreases ridershipReduce highway transportation costs and externalities such asroad maintenance and infrastructure expenses, as well asReduce emission pollutionReduce noise pollutionReduce fuel consumption.It reduces transportation costs because of housing locationchoices (Weisbrod & Treyz,2003).5% reduction in commute time has the same effect as a 1.5%decrease in rent or 28% reduction in home value (Weisbrod &Treyz,2003).

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Planning

    Sustainability and Development of TODs

    Negative Effects of TODs

    Delays due to many stops hence increases travel timeOver crowding of passagersPublic transport is expensiveHigher level of crime (Dittmar & Poticha, 2004)Deterioration of livability values due to increased densityIncrease on real estate prices.Inconsistency in the time schedule (time table)

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    How TOD effects are measured

    Ridership

    Vehicle ownershipResident commutingTransport-related perceptions of residentsTravel BehaviourCO2 emissions (computed)Park space

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    How TOD effects are measured

    Accessibility

    Vehicles kilometres travelled (VKT)Frequency of public transit usageStreet QualityPedestrian accessibility (pedestrian shed)Amount and quality of public space(networks)Infrastructural distribution and Development

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    How TOD effects are measured

    Livability

    The Local EconomyNumber of jobs by typeVacancy rateQuality of transit serviceQuality of life (resident perceptions)Home ownership vs. rentalWeekly housing expensesQuality of EducationIncome levels

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    How TOD effects are measured

    Congestion Pollution

    energy(fuel) consumption (computed)Percent of land cover as green spacePercent of land cover as treesAccelerating and Decelerating

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    How TOD effects are measured

    Development

    Property valuePopulation and housing densityLand cover/land use distributionParking inventoryThe Social EnvironmentPolicy abidance e.g stockholm congestion pricing

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    How TOD effects are measured

    Level of Congestion

    convenientcomfortablefastTravel time

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Case Studies

    United States of America

    Today, more than 100 TODs exist within the US mainlyaround heavy, light and commuter rail stations. (Cervero 1994)In the United States, 37.4% of TODs surround heavy rail31.3% light rail21.8% commuter rail7.8% bus1.7% surround ferry transit (Cervero, 2001).

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Case Studies

    According to (Dittmar & Poticha, 2004) residents of TOD-likeneighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area had almost halfthe vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per year.with exponential population growth such as Charlotte, NC;Seattle; Denver and Houston have major TOD thus travel timehas reduced(Baldassare, Knight et al. 1979).Both Charlotte and Houston have new (since 2004) light railsystems whose ridership have exceeded their projections and asa result automobile dependence has decreased.

  • Management and Prediction Demand

    Case Studies

    TODs were encouraged by local transit agencies henceincreased transit Ridershipwhich in turn reduced greenhouse gas emissions, reli

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