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3
Direct / indirect impacts
• Climate change can impact directly on health – e.g. through UV radiation, heat stress, accidents caused by storms.
• It can also impact indirectly – e.g. by altering conditions for disease vectors, reducing agricultural productivity, and triggering conflict over scarce resources.
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Direct / indirect impacts
"The intimate connection between food security, water security, energy security and climate change - to deal with one in
isolation is to present enormous problems”
Professor John Beddington, Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government, speaking at The Climate Connection national
launch, 2nd December 2008
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1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions
FoodFood
WaterWater
EcosystemsEcosystems
Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges
0°C
Falling yields in many developed regions
Rising number of species face extinction
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs
Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions450 ppm CO2 eq
650 ppm CO2 eq
Projected Impacts of GlobalTemperature Change
Source: L. Rudolph, 2008
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Extreme Weather Events & Disease Clusters
Source: Epstein, Harvard Center for Health & Global Environment
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Human Changes to Global Activated Nitrogen Cycle, 1900-2050
• Human health risks include:– Decreased crop
yields– Nitrogen oxides
(air pollution)
13
Health Burden of Climate Change Impacts
Deaths from malaria and dengue fever, diarrhoea, malnutrition, flooding, and (in OECD countries) heatwaves
14
Painful spots
• Core knowledge: the effects of climate change on current responsibilities of Environmental Health– air, water, food, pest control, home health
• Areas for development: Environmental Health Practitioners as agents for carbon reduction and adaptation.– air, carbon, water, food, housing
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• Air quality
• Water safety
• Food safety
• Pest control
• Housing
Climate change affects the current responsibilities of Environmental Health
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Air qualityClimate change impacts
• Increasing temperatures combine with air pollution to increase ground level ozone, causing morbidity from respiratory disease.
• Tighter controls on pollution to air may be needed just to maintain current air quality.
• Surveillance and early warning systems for vulnerable groups.
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Projected impacts
• Heatwave-related health problems
• Cold-related illness & deaths
• Air pollution
• Flooding
• Infectious diseases - food borne, waterborne and vector-borne diseases
• Exposure to UV radiation
• Extreme weather-related events
• New threats appropriate responses
• Possible supplementary health benefits
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Pathways for Weather to Affect Health: Example = Diarrheal Disease
TemperatureHumidityPrecipitation
Distal Causes Proximal Causes Infection Hazards Health Outcome
Living conditions(water supply andsanitation)
Food sources andhygiene practices
Survival/ replicationof pathogens in theenvironment
Contamination ofwater sources
Rate of personto person contact
Consumption ofcontaminated water
Consumption ofcontaminated food
Contact withinfected persons
Incidence of mortality andmorbidityattributableto diarrhea
Vulnerability(e.g. age andnutrition)
Contamination of food sources
WHO
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Daily Temperature
Daily Diarrhea Admissions
Diarrhea increases by 8% for each 1ºC increase in temperature
Effect of Temperature Variation on Diarrheal Incidence in Lima, Peru
Checkley et al., 2000
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Methods for:
• Estimating the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases
• Estimating future health impacts attributable to climate change
• Identifying current and future adaptation options to reduce the burden of disease
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Estimate Potential Future Health Impacts
• Requires using climate scenarios• Can use top-down or bottom-up
approaches– Models can be complex spatial models or be
based on a simple exposure-response relationship
• Should include projections of how other relevant factors may change
• Uncertainty must be addressed explicitly
After Kovats et al., 2003
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Sources of Uncertainty
• Data– Missing data or errors in data
• Models– Uncertainty regarding predictability of the system– Uncertainty introduced by simplifying relationships
• Other– Inappropriate spatial or temporal data– Inappropriate assumptions– Uncertainty about predictive ability of scenarios
Kovats et al., 2003
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Estimating the Global Health Impacts of Climate Change
• What will be the total potential health impact caused by climate change (2000 to 2030)?
• How much of this could be avoided by reducing the risk factor (i.e. stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions)?
Campbell-Lendrum et al., 2003
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Comparative Risk Assessment
2020s
2050s
2080s
Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
Global climate modelling:
Generates series of maps of predicted future climate
Health impact model: Estimates the change in relative risk of specific diseases
Campbell-Lendrum et al., 2003
Time
2080s2050s2020s
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Criteria for Selection of Health Outcomes
• Sensitive to climate variation• Important global health burden• Quantitative model available at the global scale
– Malnutrition (prevalence)– Diarrhoeal disease (incidence)– Vector-borne diseases – dengue and falciparum
malaria – Inland and coastal floods (mortality)– Heat and cold related CVD mortality
Campbell-Lendrum et al., 2003
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Due to both direct & indirect effects:
• Increased physical activity due to extended warm weather. But, outcomes could be worse due to extreme heat
• Reduced obesity and road traffic injuries through active transport
• Possibly healthy eating through adoption of sustainable farming & food policy and diets containing less animal products
• Reduced respiratory illness by improvements in air quality
• Increased home energy efficiency reducing temperature-related illness
Potential health benefits
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Climate change affects the most fundamental determinants of health: air, food, water, shelter, freedom from disease.
The impacts on human health are not evenly distributed. Developing country populations, particularly in small island states, arid and high mountain zones, and in densely populated coastal areas, are first and hardest hit.
Global health impacts
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WHO: five major health impacts of climate change
1. Malnutrition
2. Deaths and injuries caused by storms and floods. (Flooding can also be followed by outbreaks of diseases, such as cholera)
3. Water scarcity / contamination (droughts and sudden floods) – increased burden of diarrhoeal disease.
4. Heatwaves – direct increases in morbidity and mortality; indirect effects via increases in ground-level ozone, contributing to asthma attacks.
5. Vector-borne disease – malaria and dengue.
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Major global killers are affected by climate
Each year:• Weather– related disasters kill over 60,000• Undernutrition kills 3.5 million • Diarrhoea kills 2.2 million• Malaria kills 900,000
(WHO, 2003, 2008)
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• Can take the long view• Understands the science• Other health initiatives will be overtaken by the
effects of climate change• Action on climate change has health effects
itself– Positive (“health co-benefits”)– Negative
Why the health sector?
Climate Negotiations
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1) Raising awareness: of the health implications of climate change
2) Strengthening partnerships: to place health at the centre of climate change policy
3) Generating evidence: on the health effects of adaptation and mitigation policies
4) Strengthening public health systems to cope with additional threats posed by climate change
Main objectives for international public health
37
With impoverished populations in the developing world the first and hardest hit, climate change is very likely to increase the number of preventable deaths. The gaps in health outcomes we are trying so hard to address
right now may grow even greater.This is unacceptable.
Climate change and health: preparing for unprecedented challenges.WHO Director General Margaret Chan.
December, 2007
1. Raising awareness
38
Why health should be central:
• Main reasons for concern (e.g. disasters, food shortage, displacement, disease) are health and wellbeing issues
• Most energy and environment decisions (e.g. choice, use of fuel sources) have major direct health implications
2. Partnerships to raise the profile of health in climate change policy
39
3. Providing Evidence - Health Adaptation
• Describing risks from national to global level
• Measuring the effectiveness of interventions
• Evaluating health effects from decisions in other sectors
• Improving decision-support tools
• Assessing the financial costs
Protection of handwashing against diarrhoea, highlighting studies in water-stressed situations.
Adapted from Curtis V, Cairncross S. 2003; Lancet Inf Dis 3:275-281
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"Health benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions… may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs" – IPCC, 2007
We have an opportunity to reduce:
- The 800,000 annual deaths from urban air pollution, and the 1.6 million from indoor air pollution
- The loss of 1.9 million lives, and 19 million years of healthy life, from physical inactivity
- The 1.2 million deaths and over 50 million injuries from road traffic accidents
3. Providing Evidence: Improving health while reducing greenhouse gas emissions
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4. Strengthening public health systems
Strengthened action on diseases of poverty: Including wider coverage with vector control and vaccination programmes.
Much of "adaptation" is basic, preventive public health:Improved surveillance and response: E.g. heatwave warnings, compliance with International Health Regulations to prevent international spread of disease.Better management of environmental health determinants: Provision of safe water and sanitation, control of air pollution