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TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
IN PAKISTAN A Paradigm Shift
That Will Improve the Quality of Life in Pakistan
Part 2A: Floods
Walter Hays, Global Alliance Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Vienna, Virginia, USA
GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS THAT CAN CAUSE DISASTERS
• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS• LANDSLIDES• WILDFIRES
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
• Disaster resilience has become an urgent global goal in the 21st century as many Nations are experiencing disasters after a natural hazard strikes, and learning that their communities, institutions, and people do NOT yet have the capacity to be disaster resilient.
FLOODING IS COUNTER PRODUCTIVE
• Flooding occurs somewhere in the world approximately 10,000 times every year as the consequence of a locale having more water than the regional drainage basin can accomadate.
Disaster resilience, a measure of the capacity of a country to
rebound quickly after the socioeconomic impacts of a
disaster, requires decision-making for a
national paradigm shift from the status quo.
WHEN A COUNTRY IS DISASTER PRONE, CONTINUATION OF THE
STATUS QUO
Will result in new and more complex HEALTH PROBLEMS
WILL result in unnecessary DEATHS AND INJURIES
WILL result in longer and more costly RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS
PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS
• FLOODS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• LANDSLIDES
• FLOODS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• LANDSLIDES
WATER IS A STRATEGIC RESOURCE
• Life in Pakistan depends upon clean and abundant water.
• Economic growth in Pakistan relies on water.
• Quality of life in Pakistan revolves around water.
FLOODS (TOO MUCH WATER)
• Floods in Pakistan occur mainly as the result of extreme levels of precipitation during monsoon season, MORE THAT THE REGIONAL DRAINAGE SYSTEM CAN ACCOMADATE..
Pakistan’s Notable Floods
1973,,1976, 1977, 1978, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1898,
2010, ….
FLOOD DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN
• Some of Pakistan’s past notable flood disasters have affected as many as 20 million people and killed over 10,000 people.
FLOOD DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN
• Aug. 1973—affected 4.8 million• Aug. 1976—affected 5.5 million• June 1977—affected 1 million; killed 10,354• July 1978—affected 2.2 million• Aug. 1992—affected 6.1 million• Sept. 1992—affected 12.3 million; killed 1.3 million• July 1995—affected 1.3 million• Aug.1996—affected 2.2 million• Mar. 1998—killed 1,000• Jul./Aug. 2010—affected 20 million; killed thousands
NORTHWEST PAKISTAN HIT BY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
AFTER PROLONGED MONSOON RAINS
JULY 28-AUGUST 23, 2010[NOTE: War and Ramadan (which began on Aug 12)
were major hinderances]
ONE-FIFTH OF PAKISTAN AFFECTED
Summer floods are common as a result of monsoon rains that swell
rivers and streams across Pakistan, but 2010’s floods, which began in
May and continued through August were the worst in 80 years
Rainfall records were set in the province of KhyberPakhtunkhwa,
parts of the Pakistan-administered Kashmir region, and the eastern
province of Punjab.
RESPONSIVE IN SPITE OF HORIFIC PROBLEMS
• The Pakistan government, the military, and the people were very responsive in a variety of catastrophic and dynamic situation threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions.
Over 1,600 Pakistanis died (and probably many more) and more than 20,000,000 were impacted, including 3,500,000 children, as
rains swelled rivers, inundated villages, and triggered landslides, causing entire villages,
roads, and bridges to be swept away and leaving some areas isolated.
In Afghanistan, NATO and Afghan troops flew dramatic helicopter rescue missions in
militant-held territory, displaying "acts of heroism that were awe inspiring," according to a spokesman for the Combined Air Power
Transition Force.
The survival of some of the poorest of the poor living in the districts of Nowshera, Charsadda, Peshawar,
Swat, and Lower Dir became problematic very early because of
the prolonged, catastrophic nature of the monsoon rains and flooding.
The United Nations announced Saturday, July 31, that they would
provide $10 million dollars for immediate emergency assistance
and would appeal for 460 million for an emergency effort to provide
food, medicine, water, and shelter, especially for 3.5 million children.
Survival for thousands was a race with time as evacuation, search and rescue, mass care (food, clean water, and short- and long-term
health care to prevent disease) were severely hindered by the widespread inundation and
loss of infrastructure.
International response to the appeal of the United Nations for $460 million was unusually
slow due, in part, to global economic problems.
The USA provided $60 million for immediate emergency assistance along with Navy and
Marine helicopters, rescue boats, water filtration units, prefabricated steel bridges and
thousands of packaged meals, which Pakistani soldiers tossed from helicopters
On August 12th, Pakistan’s President Zardari made his first trip to Sukkur to view the flood impacts and to assure angry citizens concerned that they had been abandoned, that the Government was working very hard to obtain international relief.
By August 12th, rain-swollen rivers were receding, but the disaster was
still growing because many of Pakistan’s poorest of the poor families had not only lost their
homes, but also the ability to feed themselves, and were now threatened with disease..
DERA ISMAIL KHAN: INUNDATED
FLOOD SWOLLEN RIVER: MINGORA, SWAT
MUZAFFARABAD: RISING FLOOD WATERS
THOUSANDS OF MUD BRICK HOMES COLLAPSED
NOWSHERA: DAMAGED MUD HOUSE
TRYING TO DIVERT WATER
LOSS OF INFRASTRUCTURE HINDERED EMERGENCY RESPONSE
OVER 3.5 MILLION CHILDREN IMPACTED
COLLAPSED HOUSE
THESE LIVESTOCK WERE SAVED, BUT THOUSANDS DROWNED
PESHAWAR: MELONS BECAME PRECIOUS
CLINGING TO DEBRIS
NOWSHERA: SEEKING HIGHER GROUND
SEEKING HIGHER GROUND
SEEKING A SAFE HAVEN
THIS EVACUATION FROM CHARSADDA WAS DIFFICULT
EVACUATION WAS DIFFICULT EVERYWHERE
NOWSHERA: EVACUATION
NOWSHERA: EVACUATION TO A SAFE HAVEN
EVACUATE WITH WHAT CAN BE CARRIED
MUZAFFARABAD: INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER
INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER
BETTER, BUT INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER?
30,000 Pakistani troops rescued 28,000 people using helicopters and other means, and distributed water
and food.
NOWSHERA: PAKISTANI ARMY DISTRIBUTING WATER
WAITING FOR FOOD
FOOD LINE IN PUNJAB PROVINCE: AUGUST 20
A PARADIGM SHIFT TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER
RESILIENCE
A THREE STEP PROCESS
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN
• Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge
• Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity
• Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Disaster Resilience
Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of
Knowledge NOTE: A book of Knowkedge is
everything we know or think we know about India’s earthquakes
BOOK OF
BOOK OF
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
- Perspectives
- Perspectives
On Science, Policy,
On Science, Policy,
And Change
And Change
FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS
• The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the amount and suddenness of the inundation, and 5) the capacity of the regional drainage basin to transport the water.
TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS
• The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by two other factors that tend to happen gradually over time:
• 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and infrastructure, and
• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the kinds of socioeconomic losses that occur in a flood disaster.
FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS
• The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the magnitude and shallow depth of the quake, and 5) the poor soils and mountainous terrain of the region.
TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS
• The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by two other factors that happened gradually over time:
• 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and lifeline systems, and
• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the deaths, injuries, and socioeconomic losses in a disaster.
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
FLOODSFLOODS
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER
CAUSES OF RISK
CAUSES OF RISK
FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES
FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES
Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative
Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical
Capacity in Pakistan to Minimize Likely Impacts in the
Next Flood Disaster
NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a Nation’s “Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine,” its
educational institutions at all levels, and its electronic and
print media that provide public information
GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER
BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
Are “TOOLS” to facilitate Pakistan’s continuing commitment
to minimize the likely impacts of the inevitable future floods, thereby preventing another
disaster
Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Science-based Decision-making for a
Paradigm Shift from the status quo to Disaster Resilience in
Pakistan
NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a Nation’s “decision-makers,”
(i.e., its political leaders, stakeholders, and leading
professionals)
who have a basis for deciding on the nature and scope of a
national paradigm shift
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDSLIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
INCREASED DEMANDS INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY
INCREASED DEMANDS INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY
A DISASTER:A DISASTER:
INSUFFICIENT INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
INSUFFICIENT INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDSLIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE:NEXT EARTHQUAKE:
CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
PAKISTAN’S PAKISTAN’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESPAKISTAN’S PAKISTAN’S
COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•NATURAL HAZARDS MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
POLICIES TO MINIMIZE POLICIES TO MINIMIZE IMPACTSIMPACTS
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION/PREVENTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS