TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS

Keynote Address

IBGE Second National Meeting of Producers and Users of Social Economical

and Territorial Information

Prepared by:Scott M. Meis, UNWTO Consultant

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil25 August, 2006

• Thank you−Eduardo, for the invitation−Roberto, for the hospitality & advice−Neiva, for the help −Pepe – a mentor, I keep following in his

footsteps…with this topics as with others!

• Initial challenge… intimidating!• Realization: Statistics systems

development and integration have been the focus of my “whole career”!

Introduction

Focus: Identify, specify & explain the case for, and

concepts, of a “System of Tourism Statistics” (STS), and

An “Integrated” system (ISTS)

Purpose: Specify the meaning and significance of

“integration” for STS

Objectives: Demonstrate contributions of TSA to ISTS Identify the benefits of ISTS

Overview

Rationale

Key Concepts

Information/data Needs

Users & Uses

Data Sources

Organizing the Data: TSA Role

Illustrative Examples

Management, Collaboration & Coordination

Conclusions

Overview

Welfareeconomics

Assumptions:•Pereto efficiency•Perfect competition•Market failure

Approaches: •Correct market failure by:−external effects− production of public goods− information deficits

WHAT ARE THE TOOLS?

Assumptions: •Growth endogenous to economic systems

Approaches:•Strengthening human resources by education & training• Strengthening research & development

Transactioncosts

New Growththeory

Rationale: Why Systems of Tourism Statistics & Research?

JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION

Social integration

Assumptions:•High transaction costs for tourism SMEs •Resulting supply shortages

Approaches: •Reduction of transaction costs•Collaborative promotion•Uncertainty reduction

Assumptions: •Travel promotes interpersonal growth, knowledge & understandingApproaches:•Support domestic travel of youth• Support cultural education potential of 2 way international travel

Source: Adapted from Smeral & Prilisauer, 2005

JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION

• Tourism promotion/development provides: Stimulating effects of tourism marketing e.g. evidence of minor positive elasticities of

relating to foreign tourism demand Above average high value added effects High general employment & growth effects Relative locational security (i.e.“comparative

advantage”) A significant factor in some economies, ensuring

peoples livelihood and means of subsistence --especially SMEs in rural areas

Rationale: Why State Systems of Tourism Statistics & Research?

Source: Smeral, 2006

CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF TOURISM

• A social domain – a particular human activity• Defined as a demand-side phenomenon• Temporary mobility of people from usual place of

residence to temporary destinations• Particular subset of travelers called “ visitors”• An amalgam of industries providing commodities

and services directly to the visitor• Related expenditures create economic significance• Localization of impacts• A field of study • A collection of knowledge

Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway?

Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989

Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway?

WTO and UN definitions (developed at Ottawa Conference on Tourism Statistics, Canada (1991)):

“the activities of persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for no more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes”

Includes:Day trips (excursions) plus “tourist trips” (1+ nights)Travel to visit friends & relativesTravel for businessTravel for personal reason (education LT 1yr, religious & health)

Excludes:Commuting to/from work Study or job relocationDiplomats or armed forces on assignment

Source: Adapted from WTO, 1993

DEFINITION & SCOPE OF TOURISM DEMAND

FORMS OF TOURISM• Inbound tourism: non-residences visiting a

given country/state (exports)• Outbound tourism: residence visiting in

another country/state (imports)• Domestic tourism: residence visiting within

their own country/state• Internal tourism: domestic + inbound• National tourism: domestic + outbound• International tourism: inbound + outbound

Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway?

Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989

Rationale: How much is that?

Total tourism **233.5 million person-trips (2004) 127.3 million tourist* person-trips (2004)

Domestic tourism **88.7 million overnight person-trips* 86.4 million same day

Outbound tourismUS: 13.8 million person-trips *Overseas: 5.7 million person-trips *

Inbound TourismUS:

15.0 million overnight person-trips*19.6 million same day

Overseas: 4.1 million overnight person-trips* 0.2 million same day * Tourist = 1+nights

** Not comparable with 2001

230+ MILLION TRIPS7+ X CANADIAN POPULATION (30 MILLION)

NO measures of the core economic phenomena:• Tourism consumption• Tourism products • Tourism industries

NO credible measures of the economic role and significance of tourism in the national economy

NO core source of data on articulation of tourism markets & industries

NO overview the whole of tourism A dispersed and disorganized collection of information

fragments “The whole is less than the sum of its parts” Martin

Wilke,1985

NO “system” at all!

Previous (Pre-1989)Views of Tourism Data

Source: NTFTD, 1989

1st reference --Tourism Satellite Account (TSA): Recommended Methodological Framework (1993)

Introduction: beyond being a new statistical instrument, the TSA must be analyzed as a as a ‘building process to guide countries in the development of their own system of tourism statistics, the main objective being the completion of the TSA, which could be viewed as the synthesis of the system’.

“That part of the National Statistical System whose aim is to provide the user with reliable, consistent and appropriate statistical information on the socio-economic structure and developments of the tourism phenomenon and which can, in turn be integrated with all the other economic and social statistics at different territorial levels (state, infra-state, and international).”

What is the System of Tourism Statistics?

Source: Massieu, 2001

SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS (STS)

• “Definition of ‘international tourist’ for statistical purposes”, Council of the League of Nations, 1937

• Revised definition of ‘international tourist’ and concept of ‘international visitor’, International Union of Travel Organizations, 1950, 1953

• Recommended definition for the terms “visitor, tourist and excursionist”, IUOTO, 1963

• “Provisional Guidelines on Statistics for International Tourism”, United Nations Statistical Commission, 1976

• “Le compte satellte du tourisme: presentation des cadres comtables et de la premiere estimations de la defense interieure de tourisme”, Ministere du Commerce, de l’ Artisanat ed du Tourisme, 1979

• “Determination of the importance of tourism as an economic activity within the framework of the national accounting system”, WTO , 1983

• “Le Compte Satellite du Tourisme”, CREDOC, INSEE , 1983• “Tourism and Economics: the Inclusion of Tourism in

Standard Economic Statistics”, OECD, 1984

Concepts: TS History

TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” SEMINAL REFERENCES

• “ Towards A Tourism Research and Statistics System”, Gordon Taylor, Tourism Canada, 1984

• “Tourism Statistics Program”, Shaila Nijhowne, Statistics Canada, 1985

• “Working Paper #2: Current Data Bases”, Stephen Smith, NTFTD, Statistics Canada, 1985

• “ Working Paper #3: A Satellite Account for Tourism”, Claude Simard & Janet Swinamer, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985

• “Working Paper #5: Characterizing Tourism Demand Standard Definitions and Classification”, Peter Fairchild, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985

• “Working Paper #6: A Report on the Prospects for Establishing Local Area Tourism Data Bases in Canada”, Frank Hart, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985

• Working Paper #4: A Proposed Integrated Framework for the Demand-side Tourism Data Collection in Canada, Brent Ritchie, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985

• National Task Force on Tourism Data: Final Report, Statistics Canada, 1989

Concepts: TS History

TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.)

• “A Proposal for a Tourism Satelite Account and Information System for Tourism”, Jocelyn Lapierre, Stewart Wells, Kishori Lal, Kathleen Campbell & John Joisce, 1991

• WTO-UN Recommendations on Tourism Statistics , UN- WTO-OECD, 1993

• Technical Manual #2: The Collection of Tourism Expenditure Statistics” WTO, 1995

• “System of Statistical Indicators for Analysing the Economy of Tourism (SINTUR): Progrramme of work for the period 1998-2000”, Working Document No. 5, Instituto de Estudios Turisticos, 1997

• “A Satellite Account for Tourism (4th Draft)”, WTO, 1998• “A Tourism Satellite Account for OECD Countries (Draft)”,

OECD, 1998“A Research and Development Program for Improved Tourism Industry Decision Making: Technical Paper, Canadian Tourism Commission, 1999

• Les Comptes Satellites du Tourisme: Une proposition de l’Organization mondiale du tourisme pour integrer l’analyze du tourisme dans le cadre de la Cmpatabilite’ Nationale”, Marion Libreros, 2000

Concepts: TS History

TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.)

• A series of statistical functions relating to tourism including:

Organization and legal structure of the institutional units

that produce tourism statistics (mostly public but some significant private and micro levels)

Administrative mechanisms and (legally) established links between these and a central unit (if one exists)

Statutory and non-statutory nature of certain statistical sources and administrative controls which generate information that is liable to used for statistical purposes, (border controls, sales taxes, registers)

Human and material resources assigned to tasks in these producing units

•

Concepts: STS Scope

Source: Massieu, 2001

STS SCOPE AND COVERAGE

• Elements: To fulfill its aims (and as subset of the NSS) STS must include:

Statistical Sources: Travel surveys, household resident surveys, business data, systemic syntheses (IO, BOP, SNA), administrative data, etc.

Methodological references: Concepts, classifications, methods and procedures

Instrumental means available: Collection, storage, dissemination and application of the obtained data

Data bases of detailed final results, micro-data files, summary results

Publications (paper & electronic information products) Analytical applications and transformations: impact

models, econometric forecasts, etc.

Concepts: STS Structure

Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001

STS STRUCTURE

•Focus: Marketing aspects of tourism Social aspects of tourism Economic aspect of tourism Financial aspects of tourism Operating aspects of tourism Environmental aspects of tourism Legal aspects of tourism Political aspects of tourism Others

Concepts: STS Structure

Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001

STS STRUCTURE (Cont’d.)

• Reconciliation: Controlling & ensuring that a particular process meets

its assigned purpose and user requirements Controlling consistency/harmonization of statistical

information systems at state/,infra-state and international levels

• Coordination: Balancing tourism statistical/research programmes in terms of ongoing activities, projects and financial and human resources

• Integration: Controlling & ensuring the connection and assembly of the different statistical products

Concepts: STS

Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990

STS FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS

• Instrumental Elements: National and international tourism concepts, definitions, classifications, and standards for tourism

• Integrated Statistical Information Systems:

Tourism Satellite Account Information Systems Tourism Marketing Research & Information

Systems Systems of National Accounts Socio-demographic Information Systems

Concepts: Integration

Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990

INTEGRATION ELEMENTS

• Level of integrated system development a function of number, type and complexity of functions

• Integrated systems require consistency, rigour in preparation of basic tourism statistics

• Integrated systems provide the conceptual framework required to designte instrumental elements: concepts, defintions, classifications & standars

• Integrated systems provided the key leverage point for statistical work in all areas

Concepts: Integration

Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990

INTEGRATION SIGNIFICANCE

DATA NEEDS FOR STS

What kinds of data relate to tourism?

Overall general need: to improve knowledge of tourism reality Specific purposes:

Aid improved public & private decision industry related decision making relating to:

• Advocacy, planning and public awareness• Marketing• Investment, operations and management• Manpower, education and training

Facilitate international comparisons for regulatory and other policy, planning and management purposes To facilitate pure and applied research

Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and NTFD, 1989

TOURISM DATA NEEDS

What kinds of data relate to tourism?

National “macro” level data to establish the economic and social significance of tourism Macro regional data as well to assess and assist regional development policies National data relating to specific policy developments, eg. taxes, exchange rate fluctuations on tourism business National data relating to sector & industry strategic plans “Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations

Source: NTFTD, 1989

DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS

What kinds of data relate to tourism?

Credibility, reliability and validity in representing claimed aspects of tourism reality Timeliness and relevance if intended to aid decision making Produced on a regular basis Consistent & comparable over time, between regions & regions, & with other fields of economic & social activity (i.e. concepts, definitions, classifications, units of analysis, reference populations)

Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001

DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS (Cont’d.)

What kinds of data relate to tourism?

Sufficient breadth and depth of subject matter to meet most decision-makers’ requirements Internally consistent with recognized economic & socal frameworks Accessibility, transparency and affordability Associated communications and education Objective and scientific (i.e. reproducible) Minimal duplication

Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001

DATA SOURCES

Multiple, diverse sources – Canada found 275 different Majority in public sector central statistics agencies with national international or regional scope Primarily individual resident and visitor surveys Also business surveys of operating characteristics of tourism sector firms (both public & private) Provincial/state “exit” surveys & specialized surveys of events & attractions

Source: NTFTD, 1989

What tourism data sources are there?

DATA SOURCES (Cont’d.)

What tourism data sources are there?

Administrative data (both public & private)“Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations Private sector “micro” data of operating characteristics firms, establishments, branches, products, & market segments

Source: NTFTD, 1989

TSA defines the scope of the tourism sector (industries) to include the direct supply of goods and services to facilitate business, pleasure and leisure activities away from the home environment

TSA defines the core supply-side facets of tourism:• Tourism expenditures• Tourism products • Tourism industries• Tourism demand• Tourism GDP• Tourism Employment• Tourism enterprises

TSA provides credible aggregate measures of the role and significance of tourism in the national economy in terms of total demand, Tourism GDP and employment

TSA provides a core source of data on the articulation of tourism industries with markets

TSA provides tourism interests with a self-view

TSA Defines Scope of Tourism Industry

Source: NTFTD, 1989

TSA CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTEGRATING TOURISM STATISTICS

A conceptual framework An information system linking source and

derivative databases A source of consistency A tool for reconciliation A tool for comparisons A tool for coordination and collaboration A template for discovery

The TSA & Integration

Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989

TSA: Data Integration

Link to SNA/I-OLink to SNA/I-O

Canadian System of National AccountsInput/Output Tables

Tourism

Tourism SatelliteAccount

Tourism Monetary Values

Source: NTFTD, 1989

CTSA: Data Organization

Multi-layered VisionMulti-layered Vision

Core Account

Characterization Data

Capital Module Data

AnalyticalModules

Source: NTFTD, 1989

RecreationSurveys

Canadian TourismSatellite Account

Survey of Household Spending

Canadian TravelSurvey

InternationalTravel Survey

3 Demand Surveys

Input Output System

Travel Arrangement

Services Survey

Food and Beverage

Survey

Accommodation Survey

Transportation Surveys

13 Supply Surveys

System ofNational Accounts

TSA Information System Vision

Gov’t. Support Planning & Analysis

Source: NTFTD, 1989

Data Organization: Demand-Supply Link

Linkage Between Commodities & IndustriesLinkage Between Commodities & Industries

Source: NTFTD, 1989

Demand is estimated for groups of goods and services (commodities)

GDP and employment, however, must be calculated by industry

Supply can be calculated either for groups of commodities or by industry/sub-industry categories, establishing the link between demand and GDP

The link is a demand/supply ratio for each commodity

This ratio is then applied to each industry category to calculate GDP and employment in the industry space

Demand Surveys

Input Output System

Supply Surveys System of National Accounts

Labour Force Survey

Other InformationSuch as

Manufacturing dataInternational Trade data

Tax information

Business informationSuch as

Profits, capital investment,revenues, expenses

Survey of Employment,

Payroll and Hours

All Other Areas ofSystem of

National AccountsReconciliation

Process

Canadian Tourism Satellite

Account

TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation

Commodities expenditures VS industry revenues

Tourism demand VS supply by

commodity

Tourism inputs VS outputs by

industry Gross outputs VS all inputs

Iterative interactive process

TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation

Balance supply & demand

Balance supply & demand

ILLUSTRATIONS

Comparable Key Aggregates Comparable Detailed Aggregates Economic Impact Models Economic Indicators Characteristics of the Industry Government Revenues Forecasts Media analysis templates

STS-TSA: Integration Examples

STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons

VIEW OF MAJOR EXPENDITURE FLOWS

VIEW OF MAJOR EXPENDITURE FLOWS

2000% Change2000/1998

Tourism Spending $ 53.7 B +17%

Foreign Spending(Exports)

$17.8 B +15%

Canadian Spending $ 35.3 B +18%

Canadian Spending Abroad (Imports)

$21.0 B +18%

Travel Account Deficit $ 3.1 B 0.0

TOURISM GDP SHARES WITHIN SECTOR

TOURISM GDP SHARES WITHIN SECTOR

STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons

Air transportation24%

Other Industries19%

Other tourism services10%

Food & beverage23%

Accommodation

16%

Other transportation8%

•Tourism GDP: $ 20.4 Billion (2000)•Air transportation = most value added

TSS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons-PTTSA 1996

Tourism GDP /total GDP

Employment in tourism /total employment

Yukon 4.8 8.1British Columbia 3.5 4.7Prince Édward Isle. 3.1 4.6Nova Scotia 2.6 4.1Newfoundland/Labrador 2.3 3.9Manitoba 2.3 3.2Canada, 1996 2.3 3.7Québec 2.2 3.3Alberta 2.2 3.9Ontario 2.1 3.5NWTerritoires/Nunavut 2.1 4.3New Brunswick 2.0 3.6Saskatchewan 1.8 3.3

(percentage)

Gross Domestic Product at Basic price, Tourism and Selected Industries in Canada, 2000

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Agriculture,forestry, fishing

and hunting

Mining,oil and gasextraction

Retail trade Health CareServices (exceptHospitals) And

Social Assistance

Hospitals Tourism Motor Vehiclemanufacturing

Mill

ion

s o

f cu

rren

t d

olla

rsSTS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons

TSS-TSA: Cross Market Comparisons

Tourism Expenditures by Canadians and non residents, 2000

42%

27% 31%

11%

24%

30%

18% 13%

9%

15% 19%11%

19%

14% 17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Canadians at Home Non-residents in Canada Canadians Abroad

Other Non-tourism Commodities

Other Tourism Commodities

Food and Beverage Services

Accommodation

Transportation

Accomm.( $ millions )

Food andBeverages($ millions )

TravelServices

($millions)

Agriculture products 53 492 ?

Manufacturing products 2055 7753 ?

Construction services 68 68 ?

Communications/ utilities 479 509 ?

Finance, Insur. R.E. 519 1668 ?

Business & computer serv. 331 239 ?

Source: Tourism Economic Impact Model (TEIM)

1994 External Inputs to Canadian Tourism Sector Selected Industries

Selected Commodity Purchases

Sectoral Linkages: Extra-sectoral purchases

STS-TSA: Seasonal Comparisons – Total Demand

$8,000

$11,000

$14,000

$17,000

$20,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Long Term Trends & Cycles (1986 Q1 to 2001 Q2)

Total TourismDemand In

Canada( $ millions )

YearlyChange

( % )

YearlyChange (92$)( % )

Transportation 22,417 11.6 3.6

Accommodation 7,460 5.7 0.8

Food and beverage services 8,524 5.2 2.9

Other tourism commodities 5,432 7.1 2.9

Total tourism commodities 43,833 8.7 2.9

Total other commodities 10,243 4.6 4.5

Tourism expenditures 54,076 7.9 3.2Source: National Tourism indicators, Catalogue no. 13-009-XPB.

Total Tourism Spending in Canada by KeyCommodities – 2nd Quarter 2001

STS-TSA: Detailed Quarterly Comparisons

Food and beverage service (92): 57 99.0

Recreation and entertainment (85,96): 19 99.0

Accommodation (91): 12 97.6

Transportation (45): 6 98.9Travel services (96): 5 99.5

Other 1 ---

Total Enterprises (1999) 159,000* 1980 Standard Industrial Classification** Less than 100 employees

Distribution of Tourism Businessesby Industry *and Size

Structural Linkages: Business Characteristics

%of Total

%SME’s**

Government Revenue Comparisons

$12.40$8.90

$1.60

Federal Provincial Municipal

TOTAL = $15.4 Billion (1999) * Adjusted = $30 /$100

Chart 2: Breakdown of coverage by major tourism industry group, April –June 2005*

While the transport industry group continued to lead coverage, mostly from

attention to the airline industry, its share of coverage was greatly reduced from last

quarter as attention to Jetsgo dissipated, resulting in a notable rise in profile for non-industry coverage of government policy and

tourism marketing campaigns.

Cultural8%

Recreation5%

Food and Beverage

3%Hospitality

13%

Transport42%

Non-industry specific

22%

Travel Service

7%

Source: Cormex Research; Canadian Tourism Commission

*Based on total exposure for the quarter.

Media Content Analysis Media Content Analysis

Latest Integrative Innovation: A Canadian Tourism Industry Industrial Outlook

•Resulting supply-side forecasts are provided quarterly for a five-year period following from the current year.

•Combines information from the preceding instruments and analysis to assess the current and future profitability of the Canadian tourism sector.

• New economic model has been developed specifically to forecast profitability within the various key industry components.

ISTS: Collaborative Organization

Multi-lateral Technical PartnershipMulti-lateral Technical Partnership

Statistics Canada & Canadian Tourism Commission 20+ Other partners Objective independent statistics agency

Industry champion, leadership, resources, uses Shared goals and objectives Interdependence Regular meetings, fora & working group Leadership, flexibility & firmness Mutual respect & understanding

Key Requirements of “Integrated” STS

Collaborative organization platform, leadership

& vision Consistent standard concepts Harmonized definitions and measures of

key aggregates Common integrating conceptual and data

framework Tightly integrated Core Account data bases Loosely integrated feeder data bases and

derivative

data bases Independent quality and separate integrity of

linked data sources

Conclusions

Canada has an “integrated” System of Tourism Statistics The TSA is the integrating instrument Defines tourism products/services Defines tourism industries Developed credible & consistent measures Consistent (broadly) with international standards Reveals total economic effects Comparability with total economy Comparability with other industries Reveals structural linkages Tracks tourism trends and performance Enables industry forecasting & future scenarios

Thank you for your attention!

Are there any questions?

smeis@ogers.com