Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11

8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11

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GreenATPGreen Applications & Tipping Points

Presentation at theUCLA Anderson School of Business

by

Michael P. Totten

Chief Advisor, Green Economies

Conservation InternationalJune 09-10, 2011


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MassPovertyCollapsing

EcosystemsClimatedisasters

MassExtinction

WHY?


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UnprecedentedChallenges of

Historical & GlobalMagnitude


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More absolute poor than any timein human history 1 out of 4

[alongside mo re extreme weal th than ever]

M

asspo

ver

ty


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UnendingResource

Wars &Conflicts


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Species

extinction

Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate

Extinctions

Human population


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C

lima

te

C

ata

stro

phe

s

900ppm

Parts

perMillionCO2

Past planetary mass extinctionstriggered by high CO2 >550ppm

TODAY: 387PPM

Where we will be by 2100


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O

cea

ns

Acidify

ing

55 million years since oceans as acidicbusiness-as-usual emissions growththreaten collapse of marine life food web

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

Global Circulation Models (GCM)


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Negative Tipping Points

Source: Timothy M. Lentony , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang

Lucht , Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in

the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,www.pnas.org/.
http://www.pnas.org/http://www.pnas.org/


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Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences

A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere,

and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousandsof years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of

humanity and most life on earth.


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human

extinction?

????2100

12 to 16

billion

70,000 yearsago humans

down to 2000


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Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with

the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,

and significant costs involved in counteringterrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or

neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly

harboring weapons of mass destruction

MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change

environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends

approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost

of a clean environment."

a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining

the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

Martin Weitzman
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdfhttp://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf


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Where the world needs to go:energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008. ???


14/1522105 at 3005

2 TO 3% Annual AverageGross World Productcentury growth rate(~10 to 20x todays)

2105 at 2

$500 trillion GWP~$50,000 per cap# in poverty?

$50 trillion GWP~$7,500 per cap2+ billion inpoverty?

$1,000 trillion GWP~$100,000 per cap# in poverty?


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GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering

GENETICS

INFORMATICS NANOTECH

AUTOROBOTICS


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While non-linear complexadaptive systems pervadeexistence, humans have a

strong propensity to thinkand act as if life is linear,uncertainty is controllable,the future free of surprises,

and planning is predictableand compartmentalizedinto silos.

Normal distributions areassumed, fat-tail futuresare ignored.

E l f t i ti id tifi d i h f 3


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Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3knowledge relationships of knowledge

Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system


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Stored

Released

Variety Sameness

The adaptive cycle - a theory of the relationship of

transformation to resilience

Source: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/
http://www.resalliance.org/http://www.resalliance.org/


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Can WEAvert Multiple Catastrophes,

Avoid Irreversible Consequences,and Make the Shift to

Healthy, Sustainable Economies?


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G tti t


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OR, Getting to

Maybe

via Emer ent Collaboration Networks


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Greening EconomiesLocally to Globally

A Need for GreenATPGreen Apps & Tipping Points


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Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,

Harness ing the Busy Bees
http://www.next10.org/


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The Universe of human activityin Green Apps & Tipping Points GreenATP


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GreenAPPsUser built

User driven

GreenATP


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greening city economics 24/7

by bit s & wits b i ll i f i & i


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b i ll ions form ing & swarm ing

know ledge, fo r wel l-being ,

value, p rosper i ty & poster ity

Green

ATP


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User-built Public asset

Open source, Global access

GreenATP


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Greenest APPs via

ranking algorithms

More GreenerAPPs

collaboratively filtered


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HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERS

Source: Albert-Lzl Barabsi & Eric Bonabeau, Scale-Free Networks, Scientific American, May 2003


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A change in culture

A change in laws

A change in resource

distribution/availability

A change in strategies

A change in procedures

A change in resourcedistribution/availability

A change in conversationA change in routine

A change in resource

commitment or influence

A change in heart

A change of habitsA change of ambition

Institutional level

Organizational level

Network/Group level

Individual level


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wa er

food

energy

mobile knowbilit


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BuildingsUtilities

WHAT?Mobility

Products


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LearningSharing[EPPs]

FinanceRegulation

W


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Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success

Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to becomeclimate positive and revenue positive

Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green PowerEcosystemProtection

Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS


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1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCYPursue vigorous, rigorous & continuousimprovements that reap monetary savings, ancillarybenefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &resources)

2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMSAdd conservation carbon offset options to portfoliothat deliver triple benefits (climate protection,biodiversity preservation, and promotion ofcommunity sustainable development)

3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELSSelect only verifiable green power/fuels that are

climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slowpoverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts

Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies


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Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption

becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

E. Matthews et al. The Wei ht of Nations 2000 www.wri.or /

Closing the Loop Reducing Use of Virgin Resources &

Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients
http://www.wri.org/http://www.wri.org/


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Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses ondesign of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste or

pollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)

R d i P d t E i t l F t i t


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Reducing a Products Environmental Footprint

Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular products environmentaleffects or footprint are reduced over time through incremental improvements insustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years2009, 2025 and 2050.

Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008

CO Ab t t t ti l & t f 2020


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Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is55-80 billion per year between 20102020 for

developing countries and4050 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) 6 Gt energy efficiency 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply

N d t H lt D f t ti & E t D t ti


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IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO214 million hectares burned each

year emitting 5 to 8 billion tonsCO2 per year. More emissions

than world transport system of

cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships

USGHGlevels

Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction

O t i CO d ti t b Cli t P iti


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IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO25 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year

in mitigation services available inpoor nations, increasing their

revenues by billions of dollars

annually ; and saving better-off

nations billions of dollars.

USGHGlevels

Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive


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High Quality Multi-Benefit


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$4 million to protect the Tayna andKisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves ineastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservationarea in Peru.

Will prevent more than 900,000 tons ofCO2 from being released into theatmosphere.

Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity

Carbon Standards.

Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date


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$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

CCS REDD

Geological storage (CCS) vs

Ecological storage (REDD)Carbon Mitigation Cost

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2mitigation cost annually

(2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)

~$100billion

~3 per kWh

~$18 billion

~0.5 per kWh

$ per ton CO2

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

Reduced Emissions Deforestation

& Degradation (REDD)

Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

0

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7 50 per ton CO2


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y

2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions

Tropical Deforestation 2007

13 million hectares burned

7 billion tons CO2 emissions

$7.50 per ton CO2

1/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD trade

Poverty reduction

Prevent Species loss

A win-win-win

outcome

A win-win-win

outcome


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In the wake of 14

million hectares oftropical forestsburned down eachyear, some 16 million

species populationsgo extinct.

Endemic speciescomprising the

natural laboratory ofbiocomplexity withfuture values yet tobe assessed ordiscovered.

Irreversible Loss

Bioprospecting biological wealth using


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One-quarter all medical drugsused in developed world fromplants.

Cortisone and first oralcontraceptives derived from

Central American yam species Pacific yew in western US

yielded anti-cancer drug taxol

Vincristine from the RosyPeriwinkle in Madagascar

Drug to prevent blood clottingfrom snake venom

Active ingredient aspirinsynthesized from willow trees.

Bioprospecting biological wealth usingbioinformatic tools from field to lab

Bioprospecting biological wealth using


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Biomolecules prospected

from different bio-resourcesfor pesticidal, therapeutic andother agriculturally importantcompounds

Biomolecules for Industrial andMedicinal Use

Novel Genes/Promoters toaddress Biotic and AbioticStress

Genes for Transcription Factors

Metabolic Engineering Pathways

Nutritional Enhancement

Bioavailability of Elements

Microbial Biodiversity

Bioprospecting biological wealth usingbiotechnology tools from field to lab


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Ultra-low Carbon

multi-beneficialEnergy, Mobility &Utility Service Options

Attributes of Green Energy Mobility &


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1. Economically affordable

2. Safe

3. Clean

4. Risk is low and manageable

5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable

7. Environmentally benign

8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically

9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures

10. Endogenous learning capacity

11. Robust experience curve for reducing negativeexternalities & amplifying positive externalities

12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption

Dozen Desirable riteriaincluding poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?

through the entire life cycle?

through the entire lifespan?

from financial and price volatility?

to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?

adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?

low recovery cost and lost time?Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?

scalable production possibilities?

off radar of terrorists or military planners?

Attributes of Green Energy, Mobility &Utility Energy Services

A Defensible Green

Uninteresting military target


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A Defensible GreenEnergy Criteria Scoring

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste

power

Geo-

thermal

Nat

gas

Bio-

fuels

Oil

imports

Coal

CCS

nuclearTar

sand

Oil

shale

Coal to

liquids

Coal

noCCS

Promote

CHP +biowastes

Economically Affordable

Safe

Clean

Secure

Resilient & flexible

Ecologically sustainableEnvironmentally benign

Fails gracefully, not catastro

Rebounds easily from failures

Endogenous learning capacity

Robust experience curves

Universal symbol for Efficiency


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eta

SHRINKINGfootprints through Continuous innovation

Universal symbol for Efficiency

The best thingabout low-

hanging fruit

is that it keepsgrowing back.


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Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable

90% cost savings

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO2 Reduction


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Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5thAnnual California Climate ChangeConference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO2 Reduction
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.htmlhttp://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html


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PassiveHaus

Beyond Zero Net


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Public library North Carolina

Heinz Foundation

Green Building, PA

Oberlin CollegeEcology Center,

Ohio

The Costs andFinancial Benefits

of Green Buildings,A Report toCalifornias

Sustainable

Building TaskForce, Oct. 2003, by

Greg Kats et al.

$500 to $700 perm2 net present

value

Beyond Zero Net

Energy Buildings


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Daylighting could displace 100s GWsLighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,

consume half of a commercial buildingelectricity.

Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-timelighting, eliminating massive amount of power

plants and saving tens of billions of dollars inavoided costs.

Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.


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High-E Windows displacing pipelinesFull use of high performance windows in the

U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskanpipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), aswell as accrue over $15 billion per yearofsavings on energy bills.

Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)


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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycledind cogen

end-useefficiency

CCS

y ( p )

US currentaverage


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2 47Coal-f ired CO2 em iss ions displaced


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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

32

23

1: 93 kg

CO2/$

2 p

per do l lar spent on electr ical serv ices

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from


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New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer CapitalElectricityConsumption 165 GWCoalPowerPlants

Californians have

net savings of$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants

Cali fornia 30 year proof o f IRP value in promotinglower cost ef fic iency over new power plants or

hydro d ams, and low er GHG emissions .

Cal i forn ia signed MOUs with Provinces in China

to sh are IRP expert ise (now u nderway in Jiang su ).

Th St


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CHANGE

The StoneAge did

not endbecause itran out of

stonesThe Fossil

Fuel Age

wont endbecause itran out of

fossils

SUN FUSION PHOTONS


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SUN FUSION PHOTONS

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhereld id ti l f billi f


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Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream

worldwide, continuously for billions of years, neverfailing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility

afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving

economic activity

Annual global energy consumption by humans


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Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on NationalPetroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.

Oil

Gas

Uranium

Coal

ANNUAL Wind

Hydro

Photosynthesis

ANNUAL Solar Energy

Annual global energy consumption by humans

SOLAR PHOTONS

ACCRUED IN A MONTH

EXCEED THE EARTHS

FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES

Harnessing 1/7500th of the Suns


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Harnessing 1/7500 of the Sun sdelivered photons is technically,

economically & financially feasible.Scientists confident that 10X thisamount can be harnessed this century.

GreenATP can drive transformational

innovations essential for shifting to asolar powered global economy --

buyers, incentives, financing, training,

R&D, standards, training, policies, etc


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In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by

applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban areaon roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and

in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.

Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new

land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90


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90% of Americas current

electricity could be supplied withPV systems built in the brown-fields the estimated 2+ millionhectares of abandoned industrialsites that exist in our nations

cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning UpBrownfieldSites w/PV solar

total US electricity from brownfields

Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs
http://www.nrel.gov/http://www.nrel.gov/


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Source: Dave Miller, President, DuPont Electronics & Communications, GW Solar Institute Symposium,

The Critical Role of Materials in the Solar PV Industry, April 19, 2010

Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs

Innovative Solar Financing Options


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g pLong-Term, Low-Cost Financing

Solar power beats thermal plants within theirt ti l d ti t b i


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Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis

construction lead timeat zero carbon price

China Economics of Commercial BIPV
http://www.rmi.org/http://www.rmi.org/http://www.rmi.org/


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SunSlate Building-IntegratedPhotovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

Material

Replaced

Economic

Measure

Beijing Shanghai

PolishedStone

NPV ($)BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$18,5862.33

1

+$14,2372.14

1

Aluminum

NPV ($)BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$15,3731.89

2

+$11,0241.70

2

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)

& Payback Periods (PBP) for Architectural BIPV(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing andShanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China , July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Economics of Commercial BIPVhina Economics of Commercial BIPV
http://www.udel.edu/ceep/http://www.udel.edu/ceep/


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Reference costs of facade-cladding materials

BIPV is so economically attractive because itcaptures both energy savings and savings fromdisplacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

MW

Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-200821GW
http://www.nrel.gov/http://www.nrel.gov/


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MW

Compared to:

Wind power 121,000 MW

Nuclear power 350,000 MW

Hydro power 770,000 MW

Natural Gas power 1 million MW

Coal power 2 million MW

40% annual growth rate

Doubling


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To an energy

bill half thisamount, and75% solarservices.

this century, 75% from fossil fuels

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters


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120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China


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Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of allpersonal motorized transportation in China.

y

$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWhtwice as expensive as solar PV electricity

Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons

for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up

Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds
http://www.grist.org/article/charging-uphttp://www.grist.org/article/charging-uphttp://www.grist.org/article/charging-uphttp://www.grist.org/article/charging-up


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1

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2

PV NUCLEAR

Billion $ 2008 constant

Civilian Nuclear Power

(1948 2009)

vs.

Solar Photovoltaics

(1975-2009)

$4.2

$85

g

What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?


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0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2009 2013 2016 2020 2023 2027 2031 2034 2038 2041 2045 2049 2052 2056

Solar PV Growth @ 20% per year

>10X total world energy consumption than in 2009

15000 GW total world consumption in 2009

GigaWatts(GW)

2071

@

15%

2103

@

10%

Rate Largely Driven by Incentives, Finance Innovations, Public Policies & Regulations

2032@

40%


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GIS Mapping the Solar


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Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century

Catalyzing solar smart poly-grids


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Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with

administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions


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Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuouslycalculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of

urban solar anel locations based on multi-criteria tar ets.


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Wind Trillion$

Figures of Merit95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains


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Figures of Merit

Great Plains area

1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity

400,000 3MW wind turbines

Platform footprint

6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine

>6 mi2

Total WindFarm spacing area

37,500 mi2

Still available for farming

and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector

40% USA total GHG emissions

Wind Farm Royalties Could Doublef / h i i h 30 l l d


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The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains

= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70%

of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4

to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the

greatest economic booms in American

history for Great Plains ruralcommunities, while also enabling one of

worlds largest restorations of native

prairie ecosystems

How?

farm/ranch income with 30x less land area

Wind Royalties Sustainable source ofR l F d R h I


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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60

windpower royalty $200 $0

farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams Robert Nuclear and Alternative Ener Su l O tions for an Environmentall Constrained WorldA ril 9 2001 htt ://www.nci.or /

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Montana South DakotaGREAT PLAINS
http://www.nci.org/Thttp://www.nci.org/T


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Wyoming

Colorado

New Mexico

Nebraska

Iowa

Oklahoma

Texas

WIND RESOURCES

in varying stages of digital

Apps --technical, trainingecological, economic,financial assessment,mapping & mashups,

visualization, installation,

operation & post-production options

Potential Synergisms


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y g


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Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s

Again this century but worse China


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Intensive farming

and grazingpractices anddeforestation inChina have led to

more frequent duststorms, like this onein 2001 that sweptaerosol particlesinto the Great Lakesregion of the US,and even left asprinkling in theAlps mountains in

Europe.

Opps

Offshore Wind Trillion$


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Offshore Wind Trillion$

Offshore Wind potential several times greater than total world energy consumption


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Brazil Offshore Wind

China Offshore Wind

USA Offshore Wind >7 meters/second

Announced turbine developments


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Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles


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Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-batteryturbine spacing

Wind turbinesground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, StanfordUniversity, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles


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Orangutan habitat destructionfor biodiesel oil palm plantations


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Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off

Mississippi River Delta


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Instead, Use Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock forBiofuel Production through Algae Systems

Yangtze River Pearl River


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Shallow production area

30x less land area than crop

biofuels for same yields


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Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email:[email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

Locally diverse algae produce biomass (Biomimicry)
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Biofuel Production from AlgalT f S bb Bi


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Algaebutanol

biodiesel

Corn (ethanol)

Soy (biodiesel)

Estimated Biofuel Productiongallons per acre [ha per year]

1520

500

----

2000

----

100

+

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

[3,770 gal/ha/yr ][5,000 gal/ha/yr ]

[1,250 gal/ha/yr ]

[250 gal/ha/yr ]

Turf Scrubber Biomass(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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2 billion people lack safe water


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Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue

Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf


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4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaustphysical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of


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p y g p

dollars in lost income to the poor



A new water disinfector for thedeveloping worlds poor


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p g p

Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for

disinfection

Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1

ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1

m3)

Low cost: 4 disinfects 1 ton of water

Reliable, Mature components

Can treat unpressurized water

Rapid throughput: 12 seconds Low maintenance: 4x per year

No overdose risk

Fail-safe

DESIGN CRITERIA

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl device

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,

Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf


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WaterHealth International


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The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of

pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and

Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per

person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.



WaterHealth International


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Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation ofour systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses ofoperating and maintaining the equipment and facility.

Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thuscreating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities

for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified waterto outlying areas.

And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the userfees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.



FOOD


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FOOD


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starving


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At the same time, climate-triggered weather disasters are expected

to severely reduce global agricultural yields by 20 to 40 %.Projected reductions in yield in some African countries could be as

much as 50% by 2020.

Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?


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By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of

land may be required for agriculture.Combined with the 800 million ha of

additional land needed for medium growth

bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact

ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.

Tradeoffs?


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Using low-input, high-yield micro-farming methods cangrow complete vegetarian diets on 1 hectare of landsufficient for 100 people.

Urban food production worldwide is a key climatemitigation and adaptation strategy, enhancing food security

and system resilience against ever-increasing threat ofsudden supply disruptions and price spikes.

Urban farming for many populations around the world isliterally an insurance hedge against the threat of persistent

hunger.

FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY


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Currently, 15% of food is grown in urban areas. Many citiescould grow complete food diets on 10% of urban land area.


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COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS


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Using Green Apps & Tipping Points forGrowing Food for Self, Family, and Income

o e


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Knowbility


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Complete the Streets

Climate mitigation actions

Web-based routes

Bicycle promotion programs

Walkability city programs

Geographic Wikis


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Source: Reid Royer Priedhorsky and Loren G. Terveen, The Value of Geographic Wikis, 2010

Handhelds can enable &


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Handhelds can enable &enoble citizens,

consumers, families,neighborhoods,communities, regions,nations and the world

human society towards

practical wisdom


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Barefoot Womens Solar Engineering Assoc.

Characteristics of crowdsourcing processes


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Source: David Geiger et al, Managing the Crowd: Towards a Taxonomy of Crowdsourcing Processes, Proceedings of the

Seventeenth Americas Conference on Information Systems, Detroit, Aug. 4th-7th 2011

19 distinct process types identified from46 crowdsourcing

examples. Subsequent cluster analysis shows general patternsamong these types and indicates a link to certain applications of

crowdsourcing. 96 theoretically possible process types (for the

current dimensions) have been identified so far.

The Collective Intelligence Genome


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FINDINGS

Collective Intelligence (CI) has already been proven to work, and CI

systems can be designed and managed to fit specific needs.

CI building blocks, or genes, can be recombined to create the right

kind of system.

Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow

Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3

The Collective Intelligence Genome

THE LEADING QUESTION

How can you get crowds to do what your business needs done?

Successful Commercial & Social Collective Intelligence Web Sites


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The Crowd gene is most useful in situations where the resources

When the Crowd gene is useful


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and skills needed to perform an activity are distributed widely or

reside in places that are not known in advance.


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Innovative Collaborative Knowledge Networks, http://www.ickn.org/innovation.html


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Developing a detailed decision tree

Flowchart for the design of a CI system


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This approach then asks a series of sequential,

logical questions, the answers of which form

specific guidelines for all CI systems:1. Can activities be divided into pieces? Are

necessary resources widely distributed or in

unknown locations?

2. Are there adequate incentives to

participate?

3. What kind of activity needs to be done?4. Can the activity be divided into small,

independent pieces?

5. Are only a few good (best) solutions

needed?

6. Does the entire group need to abide by the

same decision?7. Are money or resources required to

exchange hands or motivate decision?

Source: Noah Radford, How to Build a Collective Intelligence Platform to Crowdsource

Almost Anything, August 21, 2010, http://news.noahraford.com
http://news.noahraford.com/http://news.noahraford.com/


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Noah Raford, When Collective

Intelligence Genes are Useful,

2010, www.noahraford.com
http://www.noahraford.com/http://www.noahraford.com/


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Noah Raford, When Collective Intelligence Genes are Useful, 2010, www.noahraford.com
http://www.noahraford.com/http://www.noahraford.com/


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GreenATP

60month

Goal

GreenATP

Green ATP Operating Budget


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THE TEAMANNUAL

(fully loaded)

MONTHLY

(fully loaded)

60 MONTHS

(fully loaded)

Chief Persuader $ 200,000 $ 16,667 $ 1,000,000

Chief Networker $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000

Chief Interfacer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000

Chief Engineer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000Finance (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000

Legal (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000

Support (2) $ 30,000 $ 2,500 $ 150,000

Technical equipmentand services $ 80,000 $ 6,667 $ 400,000

Travel & Promotion $ 25,000 $ 2,083 $ 125,000

TOTAL $ 805,000 $ 67,083 $ 4,025,000

How much is a unique visitorworth on the Internet?


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Depends on who you are. Amazon (e-commerce) is generating $189 per user. Google

(search) is generating $24 per user. Facebook (social networking) is only generating $4

per user according to this chart from JP Morgan's Imran Khan.

worth on the Internet?

Potential Growth Scenarios
http://e.businessinsider.com/pyl.8gr/TPQmSQb0XSnuyuvRBa5ae


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INKIND assumes 1 hour of Volunteer time per week per end user valued at $9/hr

PRODUCT purchases assumes $100 per end user per year

SERVICE transaction earnings assumes 2 percent of Product purchases

END USERENGAGEMENT

SCENARIOS

1 hour ofVolunteer

time/week @$9/hour value(million $ per

year)

Site Green

ProductPurchases(million $per year)

2%Service

earningson

purchases(million $)

TOTALservice

earnings+volunteer

time (million$ per year)

TOTAL

ServiceEarnings

only (million$ per year)

Outcomes?

100,000,000 $ 46,800 $ 10,000 $ 1,000 $ 47,800 $ 1,000WILD

SUCCESS

10,000,000 $ 4,680 $ 1,000 $ 100 $ 4,780 $ 100VIRAL

SUCCESS

1,000,000 $ 468 $ 100 $ 10 $ 478 $ 10 SUCCESS

100,000 $ 47 $ 10 $ 1 $ 48 $ 1BUDGET

SURPLUS

10,000 $ 5 $ 1 $ 0 $ 5 $ 0.1

BUDGET

DEFICIT


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Green

ATP

Documents

Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11