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7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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DisruptionsEruptions
CorruptionsMichael P Totten
Presentation CYA, Jan. 28, 2016
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Dedicated to the Inspirations
Hiliary Green1991-2013
Brenna Lavelle2003 -
elaide !tout-Green"au#201$ -
t&o 'randdau'hters delaide and Brenna( and )Goddau'hter*
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US Geological Sure!, "olcanoes, htt#s$%%olcanoes.usgs.go%ha&ar's%gas%cli(ate.#h#
Eruptions
Hu#ans release C+2e#issions every 10 hourse,ual to the ount .inatu"o volcanic eruption(
.hilippines( 1991B/ 90(000 )eruptions* in 21stCentury
33 %rillion per year in 200 'lo"al
&ar#in' costs to the &orld due 4ustto /! e#issions
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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alities 6 De7ned as ).rivate Gain( .u"li
Eruptions
C+!% to LI8E! /!% I: /!;
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Corruptions.olitical
.o&er
Corporate
Greed
edia Lies
Disin@or#atio
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CorruptionsGlo"al Fossil Fuel !u"sidies 2011-20
IF %rillionyr ssess#ent ay 201
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Disruptions
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In@or#ation %echnolo'ies (of all kinds)
double their power (price performance,capacity, bandwidth) every year --
La& o@ cceleratin' eturns
L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t
L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
D y n a m i c R A M M e m o r y ! a l f " i t c h # $ e a t u r e % i & e ' y e a r s
D y n a m i c R A M M e m o r y ( b i t s p e r d o l l a r ) * ' y e a r s
A v e r a + e , r a n s i s t o r " r i c e * - y e a r s
M i c r o p r o c e s s o r . o s t p e r , r a n s i s t o r . y c l e * * y e a r s
, o t a l / i t s % h i p p e d * * y e a r s
" r o c e s s o r " e r f o r m a n c e i n M 0 " % * 1 y e a r s
, r a n s i s t o r s i n 0 n t e l M i c r o p r o c e s s o r s 2 3 y e a r s
M i c r o p r o c e s s o r . l o c k % p e e d 2 4 y e a r s
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La& o@ cceleratin' eturns5very form of co##unications technolo'y is
doublin+ price-performance, bandwidth,capacity every *2 months
M o o r e )s *+ a *i s *o n l ! *o n e *e - a ( # l e
- # o n e n t i a l *G r o t h *o / *C o ( # u t in g */ o r *1 1 0 *Y e a r s *M o o r e s *+ a * a s *t h e * / i/ t h , *n o t *t h e */ i r s t ,*
# a r a ' i g ( *t o * r i n g *e - # o n e n t i a l*g r o t h *i n *c o ( # u t i n g
Y e a r
L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t
L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t
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La& o@ cceleratin' eturnsiniaturiation;
another e6ponential trend
http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us?language=en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnyQWr8hk0A
ay Jur&eilE5ponential Finance
uly( 201$
ireless s#artsensor net&orAs
%rillion 8alua"le!#artphone
::+ technolo'yen'ineerin' @'
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La& o@ cceleratin' eturnsC+lla"orative Intelli'enceInnovation
:et&orAs =C+I:s>another e6ponential trendD iA i p e d i a ( th e & o r ld Ks l a r ' e s t a n d @ a s t e s t ' r o & i n 'e n c y c l o p e d i a ( p r e # ie r e 5 a # p l e o @ a n o p e n s o u r c eC + I: to d a te I t i s o n e o @ th e to p to d a i l yv i s i te d I n t e r n e t s i te s i n t h e & o r ld = # o n th l yr e a d e r s h ip o @ L 0 0 # i l l i o n & o r ld & id e >
3 $ # i l l i o n @ r e e u s a " le a r ti c l e s i n 2 M M l a n ' u a ' e sth a t h a v e " e e n & r i tte n " y o v e r 0 # i l l i o nr e ' i s t e r e d u s e r s a n d n u # e r o u s a n o n y # o u sc o n tr i" u to r s & o r ld & id e
1 (0 0 0 v o lu # e s e , u i v a le n t to E n c y c l o p e d i aB r ita n n i c a
1 0 0 # i l l io n h o u r s to c r e a te D iA i p e d ia o v e r th e7 r s t d e c a d e B y c o # p a r i s o n ( # e r ic a n s s p e n d1 3 2 # i l l io n h o u r s e a c h d a y o n F a c e " o o A = $ 3 0# i l l i o n h o u r s e a c h d a y & o r ld & id e > a n d # e r i c a n s & a tc h 1 0 0 # i l l i o n h o u r s o @ % 8 a d se v e r y & e e A e n d
% h e r e a re th o u s a n d s o @ o p e n s o u r c e C + I: sc u r r e n t l y o p e r a t in '
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Ray Kurzweil, Kurzweilai.net, presentation at Google, 2009
20thCenturyOrganizations
21stCenturyOrganizations
l i i l d d i i
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0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
$
$
199 2000 201$ 2020
.eople +nline
!#artphones
.eople +nline ="illions>achine-to-achine =2>
%&oExplosiveE5ponential %rends drivin'I. addressa"le Internet o@ Everythin' =IoE>
Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen-Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013
(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor
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.ersonal .ocAet!uperCo#puters
!uperCo#puter:et&orAers
Hu#an Jno&led'e
Capital
!ocial( Civic Intelli'ence
Capital
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C a t a l y i n ' C o l l a " o r a t i v e In n o v a t i o n : e t& o r A s
D a y l i ' h t i n 'H 8 C
L E D s
B u i l d i n ' s
. u # p s C o # p r e s s o r s
a te r
C h i l l e rs
L a n d s c a p i n '
. l u ' l o a d s
F i n a n c i n '
o " i l i ty
r c h i te c tu r e
o t o r s
E 8 s
i n d o & s
! o l a r . 8
! o l a r th e r # a l
c o d e ss t a n d a r d s
F I % sd e c o u p l i n ' N
i n c e n t i v e s
s # a r t s e n s o r n e t& o r A ss o la r ' a r d e n s
L E E D N N
e r o & a s te
" e y o n d e r o n e t
i s u a l i & a t i o n
g e o s # a t i a l ( a # # i n g
A l e ' o s u r / a c e s
i n t e g r a t i o n
A P P s
c o ( # l e t e s t r e e t s i 4 e s
M 5 5 C s
i n '
i og e o t h e r ( a l
c o n s e r v a t i o n# r o c u r e ( e n t
a g g r e g a t i o n
e p e a t
c o l l a " o r a ti o n i n n o v a t io n n e t& o r A s
p e e r - t o - p e e r
1 0 5 E
# ic r o ' r id s
C+I: 6 d hoc sel@-or'anied 'roups o@
sel@-#otivated citiens('eo'raphically
dispersed( @ocused on
acco#plishin' a
speci7c #ission
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http://www.statista.com/statistics/!!"##/forecast$of$mo%ile$app$downloads/
.. /se Gro&in' E5ponentially#illions
Ai ! t I t t d ! t
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aAin' !#arter Inte'rated !ectorsGridsN8ehiclesNBuildin'sNIndustries
The Next Industrial Revolution
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!+L I:D
.+E90? Glo"al %otal
Ener'y !ervices
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S o u r c e : I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y A g e n c y , E n e r g y T e c h n o l o g y P e r s p e c t i v e s , 2 0 0 8 , p . 3 6 6 . T h e i g u r e i s ! a s e " o n # a t i o n a l
P e t r o l e u $ % o u n c i l , 2 0 0 & a t e r % r a i g , % u n n i n g h a $ a n " S a i g o .
+ i l
G a s
/ r a n i u #
C o a l
: : / L in d
H y d r o
. h o t o s y n t h e s i s
: : / L ! o l a r E n e r ' y
n n u a l ' l o " a l e n e r ' y c o n s u # p t i o n " y h u # a n s
!+ L . H + % + : !
C C / E D I: + : % HE O C E E D % H E E % H K!
F + ! !I L F / E L E ! E 8 E !1
7(e
use
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In t h e / ! ( c it ie s a n d r e sid e n c e s c o v e r < # ill io n h e c t a r e s
E ve r y A h o @ cu r re n t / ! e n e r' y re , u i re # e n t s ca n " e # e t si# p ly " y
a p p ly in g p h o t o v o lta ic s (P V ) to 7 % o f e x ist in g u r a n a re a Qo n r o o @s ( p a r A in ' lo t s( a lo n ' h i' h & a y & a l ls ( o n s id e s o @ " u ild in ' s ( a n d
in d u a l -u s e s e , u ire s 9 3 ? le s s & a t e r th a n @o s sil @ u e l s
E 5 p e r t s s
a
y & e & o u l d n Kt h
a
v e t o ap p r o p r ia te a s in ' le a
c
r e o @ ne &
la n d to # a A e . 8 o u r p r i# a r y e n e r 'y so u r ce R
1?S
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/!SindS.o&erSLC+ES..SinS2013S2TAhSGlo"alSindS.o&erSLC+ESinS2013S
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Entire !tate o@ Cali@Co##unity Colle'e
!yste# BIG BI
CL+/D C+/%I:G
Lar'est !yste# .u"lic Hi'her Education in orld
@ 1 illion @t2
@ 2 illion!tudents
@ 112 Cali@ornia
locations
@ (000 "ld's
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IE; orld needs $M %ILLI+: ininvest#ent
to #eet its ener'y needs to 203HU 23 %ILLI+: @or @ossil@uels VV
1 %rillion @or nuclearBut only
1 %rillion @or !olar .830 %rillion @or ind
htt#s$%%.iea.org%#ulications%/ree#ulications%#ulication%e
o201=s#ecialre#ortinest(ent.ht(l
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.htmlhttps://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.htmlhttps://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.htmlhttps://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.htmlhttps://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.htmlhttps://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.htmlhttps://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.htmlhttps://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2014-special-report---investment.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Jacoson, Mar4 an' Mar4 Belucchi et al., 100 clean an' reneale in', ater, an' sunlight 99S* allsectorenerg! roa'(a#s /or the 0 Unite' States, Journal o/ nerg! : niron(ental Science, Ma! 13, 201, o!alSociet! o/ Che(istr!, htt#s$%%e.stan/or'.e'u%grou#%e/(h%Dacoson%Articles%E%susenerg!20
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&&&'o100renet
http;100or'
http;thesolutionspro4ector'
http://thesolutionsproject.org/http://thesolutionsproject.org/7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, Poering Countries, States, an' the 9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an' Sunlight,AAAS Annual Meeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
aco"son-Delucchi 100?! orld
" l hi
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, Poering Countries, States, an' the 9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an' Sunlight,AAAS Annual Meeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
aco"son-Delucchi 100?! orld
" D l hi 100?
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, Poering Countries, States, an' the 9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an' Sunlight,AAAS Annual Meeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
aco"son-Delucchi 100?! orld
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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The Solutions ProDect,
"
http://thesolutionsproject.org/infographic/%23ca7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, PoeringCountries, States, an' the9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an'Sunlight, AAAS AnnualMeeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
htt#$%%e.stan/or'.e'u%grou#%e/(h%Dacoson%Articles%E%99S
aco"son-Delucchi
100?!
Cali@ornia
" D l hi 100?
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, Poering Countries, States, an' the 9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an' Sunlight,AAAS Annual Meeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
aco"son-Delucchi 100?! Cali@
" D l hi 100?
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, Poering Countries, States, an' the 9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an' Sunlight,AAAS Annual Meeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
aco"son-Delucchi 100?!
" D l hi 100?
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, Poering Countries, States, an' the 9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an' Sunlight,AAAS Annual Meeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
aco"son-Delucchi 100?!
" D l hi 100?
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Mar4 Jacoson, Poering Countries, States, an' the 9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an' Sunlight,AAAS Annual Meeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,
aco"son-Delucchi 100?!
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apid( aWorda"le ener'y trans@or#ation
possi"le( study says25 January 2016
A high-resolution map based on NOAA weather datashowing one measure of wind energy potential across
the United States in 2012. Credit: Chris Clack/CIRES
Nature Climate Change.
Although improvements in wind and solargeneration have continued to ratchet down the cost
of producingrenewable energy, these energy
resources are inherently intermittent. As a result,
utilities have invested in surplus generation
capacity to back up renewable energy generation
with natural gas-fired generators and other
reserves.
"In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead
author Christopher Clack, a physicist and
mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences at the
University of Colorado Boulder.
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al !olar .8 Installations 're& 3? in 2 to 321 G "y end o@ 201
% "y 2030=1?year 2011-2030>
33 % "y 200
=10?yr @ro# 2031-200>
H+ %+ !/!%I: D+/BLE DIGI%GL+BL G+%H +F /L-
C+!%L-B!ED I:D F!V
years
0
10
1
20
2
30
3
1 3 9 11 13 1 1 19 21 23 2 2 29 31 33 3 3 39
%
2012 200
1 #illion -
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:e& #ap sho&s ho& taller &ind tur"ines can help unlocA &indSst ti l i ll 0 t t i ll i th th t / !
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htt#$%%energ!.go%eere%articles%unloc4ingournationsin'
potential in all 0 states( especially in the southeastern /!
http://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-wind-potentialhttp://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-wind-potentialhttp://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-wind-potentialhttp://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-wind-potentialhttp://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-wind-potential7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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!ilicon !olar Cells
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La"-e[ciency Z20 ? 2 ?
share overall.8 #arAet in
2013
!ilicon !olar Cells!olar cell e[ciencies o@ devices usin' these #aterials
increased
@ro# 3M? in 2009 to 210? in 201
La"-e[ciency Z20 ? 2 ?
share overall.8 #arAet in
2013
La"-e[ciency Z20 ? 2 ?
share overall.8 #arAet in
2013
.erovsAite !olar Cells
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Crystal structure o@CH3:H3."O3perovsAites
=OI( Br andor Cl> %he#ethyla##oniu# cation
.erovsAite !olar Cells!olar cell e[ciencies o@ devices usin' these #aterials
increased
@ro# 3M? in 2009 to 210? in 201
%hin Fil# !olar Cells
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La"-e[ciency Z 20 ? 2 ?share overall .8 #arAet in
2013Copper Indiu# Galliu#
!elenide solar cell ed Cu(
%hin Fil# !olar Cells!olar cell e[ciencies o@ devices usin' these #aterials
increased
@ro# 3M? in 2009 to 210? in 201
percent o@ &orld&ide.8 production( hal@the thin 7l# #arAet
First!olar 1$ ? e[cient
price "elo&
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EFFICIE:CU
.+D/C%I8I%U0N? Glo"al
%otal
Ener'y !ervices H+%+CCELE%E I:%EG%EDi i i i l i
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20M(000 "uildin'se,uivalent to
E#pire !tateBuildin' areplanned @orconstructionthrou'h 2030
H+ %+ CCELE%E I:%EG%EDDE!IG: = DEE. E:+8%I+:> I:
%HE GL+BL B/ILDI:G !EC%+Vi , i i l i
. . i i l i .
i i i i l i
i .
source$ ' Ma&ria, Architecture 20
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! ! E % spps @or!purrin'!olar and
E@7ciency%echAno&led'e
http://www.critigen.com/solution/solar-map-standard-edition
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C5E7 ASSTK AMP+S 5F APP+EB ACTE57@
0
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ind 8ision 200pro4ected 'ro&th o@ the &ind industry over the
ne5t 3 years
http://energy.gov/articles/new-interactive-map-shows-big-potential-america-s-wind-energy-futurehttp://energy.gov/articles/new-interactive-map-shows-big-potential-america-s-wind-energy-futurehttp://energy.gov/articles/new-interactive-map-shows-big-potential-america-s-wind-energy-future7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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htt#$%%energ!.go%articles%neinteractie(a#shosig#otentiala(ericasin'ener
ne5t 3 years
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Jessi4a Tranci4, MET, 7o 2, 201,htt#$%%(itei.(it.e'u%#ulications%re#ortsstu'ies%124e!charts'e(onstrating#ositie/ee'ac4loo#
http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loophttp://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loophttp://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loophttp://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loop7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Jessi4a Tranci4, MET, 7o 2, 201,
http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loophttp://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loop7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016
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Jessi4a Tranci4, MET, 7o 2, 201,
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Jessi4a Tranci4, MET, 7o 2, 201,
88 "88y
!olar and &ind ener'y costs have @allenas their #arAets have 'ro&n
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htt#$%%(itei.(it.e'u%#ulications%re#ortsstu'ies%124e!charts'e(onstrating#ositie/ee'ac4
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htt#s$%%ilsr.org%congressgetsrenealeta-cre'ite-tensionright% John Farrell, Jan 2, 2016
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htt#$%%re#oering.org
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CHI: !+LBet&een 2000 and2012 Chi K l
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2012( ChinaKs solarener'y output
increased @ro# 3 to 21(000 nd itssolar output increased"y
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( > =electricity> =ri'ht a5is( dia#onds>
Future costco(#etitie electricit! s!ste(s an' their i(#act on US C52e(issions, Ale-an'er .
MacBonal', Christo her T. M. Clac4, et al., 7ature Cli(ate Chan e, an. 2, 2016
;lue ars are /or historical 'ata an' an Enternational nerg! Agenc! #roDection to 20
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htt#$%%.renealeenerg!orl'.co(%articles%2016%01%energ!storageset/orrecor'!earin2016.ht(lHc(#i'?renealesolar012
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Gettin' to 100( !tatus eport on isin' Co##it#ents #on' Corporationsand Govern#ents to each 100? ene&a"les , 7oe(er 201, CleanTech,#re#are' /or SolarCit!
Clean ener'y invest#ents in 201hit ne& record o@ 329"n
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China accountin' @or 111"n( /! 9 "illion(and solar attracted the lar'est chunA o@
@undin'+u4e Mills, Jose#h ;!rne, Clean nerg! Enest(ent$ ^= 201 Fact#ac4, Januar! 2016, ;loo(erg
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htt#$%%.greentech(e'ia.co(%articles%rea'%A##leTac4lesSu##l!Chain(issionsith2G9Cleannerg!Enitiati
einCh , Julia P!#er, 5ctoer 22, 201
r-on-Uear Gro&th o@ Glo"al !olar .8 2001-2
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htt#s$%%charlieonenerg!.or'#ress.co(%201%12%03%solaran'(ooresla %, Bece(er 3, 201%
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En 2000, gloal installe' solar P" ca#acit! #ale' inco(#arison to to'a!)s Vgures. sti(ates #ut the totalinstalle' P" ca#acit! in 2000 at aroun' 1.=G9. To #utthis Vgure in #ers#ectie, China alone installe' tenti(es this a(ount o/ solar P" in Dust 201=.htt#s$%%charlieonenerg!.or'#ress.co(%201%12%03%solaran'(ooresla %, Bece(er 3, 201%
%he CG o@ 'lo"al solar .8installations
@ro# 2000-201 has "een $2?
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!olar is Cheaper to Install %han Ever
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Source: 7T8 Research1S#.! 9$S$ Solar 8arket .nsight
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2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201< 201= 201Z0
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CHI:()()
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India has announced plans to set up 100 G o@solar po&er over years and 1 G "y 2020 atar'et dou"le the tar'et set "y China "et&een
2011 and 201htt#$%%cleantechnica.co(%201=%11%1=%trinasolaro#ensolar#(o'ule(anu/acturinghuin'ia
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10 in 2013( to M0 in 201( &2(200 under construction( 10(000 in pipeline o@ approved pro4ects( and $(000
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A 20/ol' increase in oRgri' #oer connections is a(ong the ai(s o/ a#lan to achiee uniersal energ! access in A/rica ! 202. The #lan,announce' ! the A/rican Beelo#(ent ;an4 AF;*, enisages 160 G9o/ ne gri'connecte' generation ca#acit! an' 3 (illion ne oRgri'#oer connections. There is 10,000 G9 o/ solar #otential on the A/ricancontinent accor'ing to the AF;.
USZ600 illion a !ear is nee'e', co(#are' ith the USZ22 illionineste' in the sector in 201=. Accor'ing to the AF; Presi'ent, XE/ A/ricaere to increase its annual s#en'ing on energ! /ro( 0.= o/ GBP to
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F & 'ind and 'ater (ower )echnologies *ffice eere.energy.go+
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The =ind ;ision Re'ortThe Study Scenario
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9< & 'ind and 'ater (ower )echnologies *ffice eere.energy.go+
%he ind 8ision !tudy !cenario results in #odest increases in electricity cost in the near-and #id-ter# =1? price increase>( "ut in the lon' ter# electricity costs savin's o@ 2? are achieved "y 200
The Potential o/
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;otto( line$ unless a P" s!ste( is at least 1 ecient, it ill not surie in the (ar4et#lace.The cost #ressure is high, ecause P" co(#etes ith /ossil /uels hich are susi'i&e' 'irectl! an'in'irectl!, an' ecause the resi'ential (ar4et 'eals ith a''itional [so/t costs\ /or #er(itting,electricians, ins#ectors an' installers. En the U.S. this t!#icall! 'oules the cost o/ the #anels.;ringing 'on these [so/t costs\ oul' 'o (uch (ore than an! #otential ecienc! gains on the
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ooltaics Enternational, /ourth Ouarter,
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1. Trina Solar
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elatie (ar4et shares o/ caste' an' (ono cSi. Source$
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owmulti3use/ customer3sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid$ oc4! Mountain
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Fit&geral', Garrett, Ja(es Man'el, Jesse Morris, an' erb Touati. The #conomics o" Battery #nergy Storage: >owmulti3use/ customer3sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid$ oc4! Mountain
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Qen'all Cotton ;ron4, a 'eelo#(ental #s!chologist at Clare(ontGra'uate Uniersit! trul! Vn'ing one)s #ur#ose reOuires /our 4e!
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Gra'uate Uniersit!, trul! Vn'ing one s #ur#ose reOuires /our 4e!co(#onents$
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'eVnes #ur#ose as[a stale an' generali&e' intention to acco(#lish so(ething that isat the sa(e ti(e (eaning/ul to the sel/ an' conseOuential /or theorl' e!on' the sel/.\
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B5)s nerg! En/or(ation A'(inistration EA*/orecaststhat 2 to =82 Gigaatts G9* o/ gas generation ill e a''e' ! 20=0dan a''itional inest(ent o/ Z2
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g Zranges u# to Z3 illion.
Enterstate 7atural Gas Association o/ A(erica asserts that(ore than Z
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/! and Canadian Gas Consu#ption =vera'e nnual Bc@d>
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.
/! and Canadian :atural Gas .roduction =vera'e nnual Bc@d>
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Beloitte highest ;M score A(ster'a(
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E Utilit! Beath S#irl
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Gartner !#erc!cle 201= e(erging technolog!
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Gerrar' assan in' turine si&e increases
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/! La''in' +ther Countries in ind s a.ercenta'e o@ Electricity Consu#ption
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F
Aote: >igure only includes the countries with the most installed windpower capacity at the end of 89"
Geo'raphic !pread o@ ind .ro4ects in the/nited !tates Is easona"ly Broad
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Aote: Aum%ers within states represent cumulati+e installed wind capacity and in %rackets annual additions in 89"
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Interconnection ueues De#onstrate thata !u"stantial #ount o@ ind Is /nderConsideration
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9
i n d " l a d e s a n d h u " s = 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 $ >
% o & e r s = e s t i # a t e d t h r o u ' h 2 0 1 0 >
i n d - p o & e r e d ' e n e r a ti n ' s e t s
E 5 p o r ts o @ in d - . o & e r e dG e n e r a tin ' ! e t s
%he .ro4ect Finance Environ#ente#ained !tron' in 201$1 2 ?
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"
(roCect sponsors raised L-.# %illion of taE eDuity 7largest single$yearamount on record and L.6 %illion of de%t in 89"
)aE eDuity yields held steady while de%t interest rates trended lower
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a n - 0 a n - 0 < a n - 0 a n -0 M a n - 0 9 a n - 1 0 a n - 1 1 a n -1 2 a n -1 3 a n -1 $ a n -1
% a 5 E , u i t y U i e l d = a @ t e r -t a 5 >
1 - U e a r D e " t In t e r e s t a t e = a @ t e r -t a 5 >
1 - U e a r D e " t In t e r e s t a t e =p r e - t a 5 >
Lon'-%er# Contracted !ales to /tilitiese#ained the ost Co##on +W-%aAerran'e#ent( "ut erchant .ro4ects
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!
Continued to E5pand( at Least in %e5as
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4ecently announced wind purchases of U ;' from technology companiesand %usiness giants to hospitals uni+ersities and go+ernment agencies
%ur"ine :a#eplate Capacity( Hu" Hei'ht(and otor Dia#eter Have ll Increased!i'ni@icantly +ver the Lon' %er#
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#
vera'e apac ty Factors or .ro ectsBuilt @ter 200 Have Been !ta'nant(vera'in' 32? to 3? :ation&ide
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! a # p l e i n c lu d e s 9 1 p r o 4 e c t s t o t a l in ' M G
8 i n t a ' e ;f p r o 4 e ct s;f ;
on
ro n' or n esource ua y anCo##ercial +peration Date De#onstratesI#pact o@ %ur"ine Evolution
0 ?1$
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rice=201$
h
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!#oother LooA at the %i#e %rend !ho&s!teep Decline in .ricin' !ince 2009Especially Lo& .ricin' in Interior e'ion
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2 $1 ( 3 M 2
2 0 0 $ - 0
3 02 ( 1 9 0
2 0 0
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Prices #resente' here in BC ter(s, to e consistent ith ho #resente' ! 7+, ;7F, GTM
(#irical +;7+ #roDect /ar le/t* is (oste-#ensie at Z2.
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S(all sa(#le o/ 6 #roDects = uilt in 201
I n d i v id u a l . r o 4 e c t = c -! i >
I n d i v id u a l . r o 4 e c t = t h i n - @i l# >
2? avera'e sa#ple-&ide .8 net capacity @actor("ut &ith lar'e pro4ect-level ran'e =@ro# 1?-3?>
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F i5 e d -% ilt % r a c A in ' Fi5 e d - % ilt % r a c A in ' Fi5 e d -% i lt % r a c A in '
!o la r r e so u rc e o @ $ A h # 2 d a y !o la r r e so u rc e o @ $ - A h # 2 d ay !o la r r eso u rc e o @ g A h # 2 d ay
Cu#
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e
=Heal201$
h>
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escalation rates an'%orti(eo/'elier! /actors
Strong%stea'! 'onar'#rice tren' since 2006
S(aller #roDects e.g., 20
M9* no less co(#etitieCP" an' CSP largel!co(#etitieat the ti&e, utlittle isiilit! recentl!
]3 o/ the sa(#le iscurrentl! o#erational
;roa'ening o/ the (ar4et in201 A, A+, F+*
96
0
0
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1 0
2 0 0
2 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
2 0 0 < = ( 1 . . >
2 0 0 9 =9 < ( 1 3 . . s >2 0 0 M = 0 ( 3 . . s >
2 0 0 = ( 1 . . >
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Thus, aerage PPA #ricesdeclineoer ti(e in real'ollar ter(s to# gra#h*
;otto( gra#h co(#ares 201=an' 201intage PPA #ricesto range o/ gas #rice#roDections /ro( A5 201,shoing thatf
fP" can co(#ete itheven
@ust the "uel costso/ gas/ire'generation, an' also #roi'esa longter( he'ge against#otential /uel cost increases
9#
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201
v e r a ' e p r ic e o v e r t i# e a # o n ' s a # p l e o @ . 8 . . s s i' n e d i n 2 0 1 = 1 2 co n t r a c t s( M M >
201$
h
0
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200
2 0 1 3 =$ 9 2 ( 1 . . s >
2 0 1 $ =$ $ 9 ( 9 . . s >
2 0 1 =M M ( 1 2 . . s >
pparent deep #arAet at these lo& .. prices
ustin Ener'y;600 M9 solar FP receie' 3,36 M9 res#onse
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!outh&estern .u"lic !ervice;200 M9 solar FP receie' ,20 M9 res#onse
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0
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=: 8 ( _ ( / % ( C + ( : >
% e 5 a s !o u th e a st C e n t ra l : o rth e a st : o rt h & e st
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eplate!olarCapac
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eplateCapa
==.6 G9 o/ solar as in the Oueues at the en' o/ 201= u# /ro(
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YB5G7 FU+ C++ (ariti(e use
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+ighting Oualit! /actors
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7ature,gloal
clustersnetor4s
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7ature 201
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7ature 201
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7 neighorhoo' 'esign
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onionli4e nano#article conerts in/rare' energ! to electricit!, 201
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ierreDean cherret continuous energ! (gnt
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ierreDean cherret ho(e area netor4
En the ne-t three !ears, China #lans to shutter =,
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En the #ast Ve !ears, China has cut so(e 60 (illiontons o/ coal #ro'uction ca#acit! an' close' 3,20 coal(ines, accor'ing to the 7ational Coal Association.
China ha' a##ro-i(atel! 11,000 coal (ines at the en' o/201 ith a total ca#acit! o/ .3 illion tons. 5/ these,aroun' 1,000 ha' annual ca#acit! o/ (ore than 1.2(illion tons K so(e =00 (ore than in 2010.
The countr! is neertheless lea'ing the a! in e(racing
green energ!. China as the iggest inestor in cleanenerg! last !ear, channeling Z110. illion into the sectoran' accounting /or 13 o/ the total gloal clean energ!inest(ent.
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eriving Energy Services varying footprint sizes
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Construction %ools Disruption %ools
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