Torquay Locality Development

Torquay Locality

Resident population (2013)(population that live in the area) 65,800

Registered population (2015)(population that are registered to a GP) 71,900

5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

0 to 45 to 9

10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84

85+

Population pyramid for Torquay Locality compared to England average, 2015

England average

Source: Resident population estimates based on 2013 LSOA population estimates, ONS. Registered population estimates derived from practice lists Aug 2015

Estimated registered population Change in estimated registered population

2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 to 2020 2015 to 2025 2015 to 2030

0 to 14 11,471 12,160 12,328 12,210 6.0% 7.5% 6.4%

15 to 29 12,455 11,827 11,674 11,844 -5.0% -6.3% -4.9%

30 to 44 12,420 12,319 13,052 13,117 -0.8% 5.1% 5.6%

45 to 64 19,603 19,546 18,852 17,912 -0.3% -3.8% -8.6%

65 to 84 13,550 14,400 15,435 16,671 6.3% 13.9% 23.0%

85+ 2,355 2,654 3,172 3,909 12.7% 34.7% 66.0%

Total 71,854 72,906 74,512 75,663 1.5% 3.7% 5.3%

Registered Population Projections

Source: local registered population modelled against Sub National Population Projections (ONS)

Registered Population Projections

Average age (Years) Torquay

South Devon and

TorbayEngland

2015 43.3 45.3 40.3

2020 43.7 46.0 41.0

2025 44.4 46.9 41.7

2030 44.9 47.6 42.4

5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

0 to 45 to 9

10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84

85+

Population pyramid for Torquay Locality compared to England average, 2020

England average

Source: local registered population modelled against Sub National Population Projections (ONS)

2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation

Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Least deprived area in Torquay Part of the Cockington with ChelstonElectoral Ward

Most deprived area in TorquayPart of the Tormohun Electoral Ward

Torquay Resident ProfileLeast vs Most Deprived Areas

MeasureLeast deprived small area

(Cockington with Chelston)

Most deprived small area (Tormohun)

Life expectancy at birth (2011-2013) 88.7yrs 74.6yrs

Life expectancy at 65 (2011-2013) 24.4yrs 19.7yrs

Population under 16 (2013) 12.6% 16.1%

Population 85 and over (2013) 5.4% 2.5%

Index of Multiple Deprivation score (2015) 5.9 67.4

% income deprived (2015) 4.6% 38.8%

% employment deprived (2015) 6.6% 35.0%

Jobseekers Allowance Claimant rate (2011-2013) 1.1% 11.6%

Emergency admission rate per 10,000 (2011/12-2013/14) 754 1,397

General fertility rate per 1,000 (2009-2012) 45.9 57.8

Source: 2015 English Indices of multiple deprivation, Births data, ONS. PCMD, SUS, HSCIC.

Torquay Resident Population ProfileLeast vs Most Deprived Areas, 2013

Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2013 Population estimates, ONS.

Torquay– Least Deprived Small Area

Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Torquay– Most Deprived Small Area

Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Estimated Burden of Disease Estimated burden of disease

Number of patients with disease; known or not known to primary care

2015 2020 2025 2015 to 2020 change

2015 to 2025 change

Coronary heart disease 4,055 4,372 4,754 7.8% 17.2%

Chronic kidney disease 6,359 6,845 7,533 7.6% 18.5%

People aged 65 and over predicted to have:

Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes 1,985 2,128 2,314 7.2% 16.5%

A longstanding health condition caused by a stroke 369 402 448 8.9% 21.5%

Dementia 1,153 1,291 1,507 12.0% 30.7%

Depression 1,365 1,457 1,590 6.8% 16.5%

Severe depression 436 467 528 7.0% 21.1%

A longstanding health condition caused by bronchitis and emphysema 270 290 318 7.6% 17.8%

A moderate or severe visual impairment 1,388 1,519 1,727 9.4% 24.4%

A moderate or severe, or profound, hearing impairment 4,819 5,276 6,023 9.5% 25.0%

Source: Registered populations applied to: CHD, London Health Observatory. CKD prevalence, Public Health England. People aged 65 and over, POPPI

Community Overview

Source: 2014/15 South Devon and Torbay Joint Strategic Needs Assessment

GP Consultations: 511,276

Community Therapy and Nursing Services: 113,185

Secondary Care Outpatient Appointments: 115,144

A&E and MIU Attendances: 26,102

Radiology events: 28,021

Elective Acute Care: 12,523

Non Elective Acute Care: 7,805

Intermediate Care: 9,696

Community Hospital Admissions: 512

Totality of Health Service Use: Torquay Locality

Figures relate to activity not people and is based on available NHS data

A New Model of Care for Torquay

A New Model of Care for Torquay

Model of Care for Torquay • Complex co-morbidities supported in

community

• Multi-skilled and multi-functional workforce

• Co-location - integrated care teams providing a holistic offer, improved co-ordination, multi-disciplinary and outcomes-based approach to care.

• “Every Contact Counts” – maximising self-care and health promotion; becomes embedded in the community.

• Primary and community care brought together as a single service offer.

• Accountable for all community-based care of the population

• Aim – 85% of all health and care need met in the community

Model of Care for Torquay • Enhance existing services, develop

community assets.

• DGH continue to provide radiology, A&E, elective care, OP

• Remote access to specialist advice for GPs and other care professionals

• Ability to extend scope and ambition of care model according to aspirations

• Operational delivery phased to enable a transition over time to new ways of working

• Gradually push boundaries of what we can achieve