Top 10 Business Trends Mod 2020_claus_kjeldsen Institut for Fremtidsforskning

Hvem er IFF Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen

Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening

Privat, neutral og uafhngig

Tvrfaglig tnketank (konomer, politologer, etnologer, kommunikationsfolk, sociologer, en astrofysiker og filosoffer)

Ca. 20 medarbejdere City Future Clubs

Hvad laver vi?

Medlemsrapporter

Prisvindende magasin
http://www.iff.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=2063http://www.iff.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=2009http://www.iff.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1979http://www.iff.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1772&lng=2

Projekter

At studere fremtiden er en del af den menneskelige natur

Det er en afgrende faktor i vores politiske, sociale, kulturelle og konomiske udvikling.

Det er et grundlggende aspekt i:

Hvem vi er?

Og hvordan vi fungerer?

Tidssyn - fremtidsperspektiv

Nutidsorienterede

Seeing is beliving

Fortidsorienterede

Fremtidsorienterede

Implementation eats strategy for breakfast

Udfordring: Hvordan fr vi dem til at arbejde sammen?

som vi er og ikke som

Tidssyn 2014 og 2004 2004 Skabere 15% Navigatrer 32% Tilpassere 33% Fastholdere 20%

15%

55%

20% FremtidsorienteredeNutidsorienteredeFortidsorienterede

2004

2014

2014

Forudsigelser er sjldent selvopfyldende

economist, but I do believe that we are growing

President George W. Bush July 2008

Kunderne bliver stadig mere krvende

"Who the hell wants to hear actors

H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
http://history.sandiego.edu/gen/filmnotes/images2/PDRM7732b.jpg

Kan vi sprge dem?

Henry Ford
http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afbeelding:Henry_Ford.jpg

Megatrends er aggregerede enkeltbegivenheder, der alle trkker i samme retning og ndrer vores omverden.

Top level

megatrend

Sub-trend

trends

Individual

observations

Tidshorisont p 10-15 r ikke ndvendigvis linere Pvirker samfundet over en bred front Stor effekt man kan ikke gemme sig for en megatrend Implikationerne afhnger af, hvor man str internt afhngige Vi har en tendens til at overvurdere konsekvenserne p kort sigt Og undervurdere dem p lngere sigt

En god model til anvendelse af megatrends og identifikation af strategiske temaer

Transactional environment

Contextual environment

Megatrends

Society and values Technology developments Economic Environmental stresses Political developments

Regional and national stakeholders (outside of industry)

Funding Competitors Political and legislative actors (relevance in industry) Suppliers Meeting of physical and digital infrastructure Influencers Players in value chain Consumer advocates

13

Din

Organisation

Strategy Business development

Innovation

Trusler

Muligheder

Et eksempel fra IFF

Vi m regne med et voksende antal mellemindkomstlande som konkurrenter, men ogs som markeder - hvis vi forstr at arbejde under deres politiske og kulturelle omstndigheder. Inden r 2005 m vi regne med, at Kina, og mske Indien, vil

Kilde, IFF: Mod r 2005, 1980

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Accelerating pace of change

Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development

Technological progress in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up

Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction

cannot keep up: 40% of last less than 2 years and

median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013

The rate of replacement of Fortune1000

Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/

When assets become liabilities Blockbuster video

Customers, innovation, competitors the biggest threat to organizations

Likelihood

Sig

nif

ica

nc

e

Terrorism

Hazards

Compliance

Reputation

Business Interruption

Regulation

Interest rates

Credit Risk

Foreign Exchange

Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)

Political Risk

Economic Conditions

Technology Shifts

Innovation Competitor Shifts

Customer Preference

Industries converge

2000 2012

1. Nokia 1. Samsung

2. Motorola 2. Nokia

3. Ericsson 3. Apple

4. Siemens 4. ZTE

5. Panasonic 5. LG Electronics

Five largest mobile handset manufacturers worldwide based on quarterly sales figures

(total units sold)

Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012

Hvilke markeder konvergerer i jeres branche? Er i tt p kunderne/markedet?

Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development

Technological progress - in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks - has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up

Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction

cannot keep up: 40% of last less than 2 years and

median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013

The rate of replacement of Fortune1000

Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/

get acceleration og kompleksitet imdegs med nsket om get fleksibilitet/agilitet i vrdikden. Eksempelvis p forpligtelser overfor medarbejdere:

I OECD-landene har vksten i midlertidige jobs vret 1.5 2 gange s hj som vksten i faste ansttelser

I Frankrig har vksten vret 66% mod 7% i faste jobs fra 2000 2010

Tendensen er strk og rammer alle virksomhedens omrder

Source: McKinsey, 2012

world is changing fast.

Big will not beat small anymore.

It will be the fast beating the

slow Rupert Murdoch

Vi gr fra produkt til service

Eje Lease

Service

Aktiver/Pant Cash flow

Answer: Seek networks and partnerships

Hierarkier udfordres af Netvrk

Non-social interaktion

Vrdi i transaktioner

Businessstabilitet

Veldefinerede industrier og hierarkier

Envejsmarkeder

Begrnset information

Overskud af ressourcer

Gennemgribende social interaktion

Vrdi i forhold

flux

Industritransformation

Tovejsmarkeder

Informations overflod

Ressourcemssige begrnsninger

Institutioner Drivkrfter Ambient kommunikation Globale informationsstrmme Social computing Markedets diskontinuitet

Fllesskaber

KONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010

Hvordan gr I fra produkt til service? Hvordan ger I kundens fleksibilitet?

?

Implikationer af acceleration og kompleksitet

Kan vi spotte ndret kundeadfrd i vores BI (early warning )

Er vi gearet til at lede/styre fremtidens projektorganisation

Hvordan samarbejder vi i vores vrdikde med specialiserede eksterne aktrer

Hvordan hndterer vi sikkerhed i en mere ben struktur

How does this affects private consumption?

MR1 2013


Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization



Economic growth


Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Adgang/service er vigtigere end ejerskab

Robottaxien kommer nr man kalder

Fordele ved leje - og deleordninger Strre fleksibilitet og mobilitet

Bedre service

Stordriftsfordele

Koordinering via internet

Del af et fllesskab

Fremfor alt: Mere bekvemmelighed

Sharing economy

Source: The Economist (2013)

FREEDOM FROM OWNING


Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization



Economic growth


Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Demografi

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMnd Kvinder

Population (i tusental)

1950

Median age

28,6

OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


1960

Median age

29,6


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


1970

Median age

30,6


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


1980

Median age

31,9


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


1990

Median age

34,4


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


2000

Median age

37,6


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


2010

Median age

40,8


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


2020

Median age

43,8


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


2030

Median age

46,6


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


2040

Median age

49,4


OECD


Low Variant


40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99


2050

Median age

51,1


OECD

Senior lines

K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow -track checkout lane for the old and handicapped

Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt, small talking with the co -worker

Grab a chair - sit down and enjoy the atmosphere

0 20 40 60 80

80 60 40 20 0

Fortid

Fremtid

Afh

n

gig

e

Uafh

n

gig

e

Fri

e 1

Fo

rld

re

Fri

e 2

ld

re

Livsfaser:

Age

Age

Omkari Panwar, 70 r

Vi har det bedre end forventet

Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population)

United Nations:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision

Hvad sker der nr vi kombinere aldring med urbanisering

Genkai Shuraku?

Et by-samfund rammer en kritisk grnse, nr 50% af borgerne er over 65 r. Ultimativt forhindrer det samfundets praktiske funktionalitet. 18.775 byer vil vre Genkai shuraku i

Andel af befolkningen i 2012 og 2020, der er fyldt 65 r

Kilde: DS, 2012

Danmarks vkst drevet af to metropoler

Kilde: Danmarks Statisk

9 ud af 10 danskere bor i byerne

Metropol regioner

Byer kombineret med forstder for at danne regioner.

Korridorer

De korridorer, der forbinder to strre byer eller metropol regioner

Befolkningsvkst fra 2012 til 2020

Kan udviklingen bremses

I job Arbejdslse , folke - og frtids -pensionister

Kbenhavn by 90,9 9,1

stjylland 85,3 14,7

Fyn 77,7 22,3

Vest- og Sydsjlland 72 28

Hele landet 83,3 16,7

28%

91%

85%

Flyttemnster - skvvridningen fortstter

Kilde: Arbejderbevgelsens Erhvervsrd

9%

72%

22%

78%

15%

Ikke i job 169.000

Beskftiget, flytter til Kbh og stjylland;

125.000

Beskftiget, flytter til resten af landet; 68.000

362.000 flytter fra een kommune til en anden 2009-2011 I job:193.000

I dag: "Pentagonen": London, Hamburg, Mnchen, Milano og Paris.

London, Paris, Hamburg og Warszawa.

resundsregionens infrastruktur (jernbane og vej) til Europa allerede mttet.

Det danske jernbanenet er under den standard, der findes i nabolande.

Hvilke konsekvenser har bningen

Lufthavns fremtid?

Source: EPSON 2006, IDA, 2009, NISA 2010

til vores butikker i London og Newcastle i nord er lige s forskelligt som at kbe ind til to forskellige lande

20059 16034

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

London vrige Storbritannien

Gennemsnitlig husstandsindkomst 2014 i pund

34 39,7 42,9

0

20

40

60

London-regionen vrige Storbritannien South West (Bristol)

Storbritannien gennemsnitsalder 2014

FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

The world has 23 megacities metropolitan areas with populations in excess of 10 million. The household names of the urban world, these first -tier cities produce some 14 percent of global GDP. Between now and 2025, as the urban world shifts south and east, these traditional megacities are set to be joined by 13 new ones seven of them in China, and only one (Chicago) in the developed world.

Feminization of society - the evolution of authority

Kvinderne er fremtidens vindere

Kvindernes andel af nordiske kandidater ISCED 5+6

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Men Women

Ingenir og naturvidenskab uforandret

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3. Social science, business and law

4. Natural science, mathematics and computing

5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction

Liner ( 3. Social science, business and law)

Liner ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)

Liner ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)

Kvindernes andel af kandidater voksede 2,5 gange hurtigere end mndenes

Kilde: Nordstat, 2011

She-conomy

The average American woman is expected to earn more than the average American male by 2028.

Women account for 85% of all consumer purchases :

91% of New Homes

66% PCs

92% Vacations

80% Healthcare

65% New Cars

89% Bank Accounts

93% Food

93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals

Sources: She-conomy.com

Think new business platforms understanding and targeting women

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Top 10 Business Trends Mod 2020_claus_kjeldsen Institut for Fremtidsforskning