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To Infinity & Beyond!
Peter CochraneConceptLabs CA Co-Founder
Wireless communication Personal Communication
Faster & Faster Wealth Generation
0102030405060708090
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
New
Com
pan
y V
alu
e
US$Bn
PCInternet
Year
Mobile
Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
B-B B-B B-B
B-CC-CC-BMobileMachine
2G - A field of dreams…
…& 750M did, just for Voice & SMS
Build it and they will come…
Communicating on the move…
We value mobility above Quality
We value mobility above Price
Mobility is Personal
Text messaging is about Time Shifting
Data & text are more important than voice
Bandwidth is now the lubricant of our society
UK SMS Messages 99
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
Millions
UK SMS Messages
Year 1
Year 2
3.5Bn
0.3Bn
UK SMS Messages
Year 2Year 1
Year 3
12Bn
3.5Bn
3G - A field of dreams…
Build it and will they come…again?Wire line qualitySeamless roamingMP3 Sound FilesMPEG Movie FilesJPEG Digital PhotosOn Line GamesIP TelephonyIP Video ConferenceIP Radio & TVGPS + TeleCare+++New Markets
Why did WAP fail?
Over-hypedOverdueUnder performed
-Slow-Limited web access-Nothing like a PC
Too complex to engineerToo complex to use
13
Disruptive Technologies
New TechnologyPer
form
ance
Time
Sustained technological improvements 3G>>2G
Performance customers
can absorb or utilize
Powerful mobile devices…
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Voice
Messaging
Internet
Java
M-Media
5 years
4 years
2 years
1year
Machines
0.5 year
More Mobile than fixed Messages the voice Net purchases than a PC
A small screen
is not aBIG SCREEN
Will 3G happen in the EU?
£> 60Bn = Licence fees> 60Bn = Infrastructure> 60Bn = Development >??Bn = Marketing & Sales
>200Bn = Total
Will 3G happen in the EU?
~ £400 per head of population> 10 years to break even> 18 months to first chip sets > 24 months to first sales> 48 months worst case
Mounting public pressure & changinggovernment position on masts & towers
Operator Options?
Merge companies, networks andoperations to offset costs
Load cost onto 2G service- More expensive handsets - More expensive calls- Reduce Quality of Service- Reduce customers services
Operator Options?
Merge companies, networks andoperations to offset costs
Load cost onto 2G service- More expensive handsets - More expensive calls- Reduce Quality of Service- Reduce customers services
Government Options?
Reset the clockGive the money back
A once vibrant sector has been raped and may never be the same again
Banks may begin to foreclose on Mounting debts
The Only Realistic Option?
Use 3G to wipe out the last/first mile
1mm 10cm 10m 1km 1000km
1cm 1m 100m 10km 10000km
Chipto
Chip
Boardto
BoardBackplanes
Network TypesCopper, Fibre, Radio, Optical - Static - Mobile
LANs WANs MANs
LongHaul
Spatial Density Spectral Density
Everything is moving toward IP based operations
3G Threats & Limitations??
Technology options frozen too early- Not IP based- CDMA is band-limited - 2.5G can deliver almost as much- 4G coming faster than expected- Parasitic networks are far superior
Yearly Productivity
0
20
70
40
100
60
80
BW
Chip
SW
Qu
anti
ty/U
nit
Tim
e
InfrastructureWireless WWW
Content / Apps
Devices
150% pa
350% pa
Carrier’s the
bottleneck
35% pa
The key constraint?
1T
1G
1M
1K
1
Extrapolation from 1950s
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Backbone
RAM
Clock
Last/First Mile
HD
100Mbit/sLAN
11Mbit/sWLAN
2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s 256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s
MStream Cable PSTN ADSL Mobile
Office
&
Home
NetworkAlways On Dial Up
100,000MByte
1000MHz
LAN100
Mbit/s11Mbit/s
HardDrives Clock
WLAN MStream Cable PSTN ADSL Mobile
2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s 256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s
Office
&
Home
Network
Net Access
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
Mobile phones
Mobile PhonesWith web access
PCs
Wired phones
Bn
If Telco's sold cars…
Will the Telco/Cable Co’s Deliver?
NOThey just don’t get it!They just don’t have it!They don’t want to do it!They don’t have to do it!They can’t do it anyway!!
Wrong infrastructureWrong mindsetMounting debts
Have we been here before?
YES
Have we been here before?
YESCommunity Antenna TV ABC don’t do terminals ABC don’t do support ABC don’t do delivery ABC don’t do networks
Parasitic Nets - 802.11 et al
Who needs a Telco or Cableco?
PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
PARASITIC NETWORKSWith mobile base stations!
Deviceto
Device
As today
PARASITIC NETWORKSNew modes!
DeviceRepeater
DeviceBroadcast
Wireless - the story so far…
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
30 MHz
300MHz
3GHz
30GHz
300GHz
3000GHz
Short wave radio
Black & White TV
Experimental CommSatellite
ColourTV
Microwave Antenna
Walkie-Talkie
Marine Satellite
CellularPhone
MilitarySatellite
Low-EarthOrbit Satellite
BroadBandSatellite
Modern Shortwave
10 m
100m
1m
10 cm
1cm
1mm
0.1mm
FM
TV
Mobile
Optical
Op
por
tun
ity
Wireless Technologies
Radio
RegulatedSecure
Medium-long rangeNarrowband
MatureRadiation risk?
< 300GHz
Optical
UnregulatedVery secureShort rangeBroadbandImmature
No radiation risk> 50,000GHzSpectrum
Diffuse Optical
Cell
Broadband
Mobile
Secure
Opticaltransceiver
Network
Switch
TelCo/CableCo Defence
X
ISP
Mobile
Latency
• Network latency should be dominated by the speed-of-light delay
• Managed by tight integration of optical and electronic technologies, architectures, operating systems and programming
Minimising Latency
• provide abundant network bandwidth• strip out layers and protocols• minimise network crossings
- ideal: each ‘expedition’=1 crossing + return• introduce ‘information geography’ (location
and distance of information) as the key parameter in network architecture, operating systems and programming
processor memory
processor memory
processor memory
processor memory
Current architecture
Future-matched architecture
Telephone Network
Random Events + Hierarchy => Time + Frequency Aggregation => Economy=> Blocking/Freeze Out
Control - Total - Prescriptive=> Fixed Bandwidth=> Low Flexibility=> Extremely Reliable=> Reasonably Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Data
Internet
Bursty Events + No Hierarchy=> Time Aggregation => Economy=> Variable Latency
Control - Little=> Variable Bandwidth=> High Flexibility=> Flaky=> Infinitely Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Speech
Parasitic NetsBursty Events + No Hierarchy=> Time + Space Aggregation => Economy=> Huge Latency
Control - None=> Variable Bandwidth=> Infinite Flexibility=> Highly Reliable=> Highly Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Real Time
Hardware Software
NetworkApplications
Convergence??
I don’t think so….
Established Wisdom
Planet wide universal access??
Thank you,
cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net