Titagarh Wagons Limited (TWL)2 Anand Rathi Research Titagarh Wagons Limited (TWL) is one of the leading private sector wagon manufacturers in India. Incorporated in 1997-98 TWL is

Anand Rathi Research

Time Horizon – 12 Months

February 1, 2016

Dec-15 Sep-15 Jun-15 Mar-15

Promoter 46.1% 46.0% 53.1% 53.1%

Institutions 29.4% 25.6% 16.8% 13.3%

Non Institutions 24.5% 28.4% 30.2% 33.7%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg

V

A

L

U

E

P

I

C

k

(In ₹ Mn.) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Net Sales 6,241 7,611 7,955 10,038

EBITDA 35 248 199 778

EBITDA Margin 0.6% 3.3% 2.5% 7.7%

EPS (₹) (0.8) (0.3) 1.6 5.3

EV/Sales 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.7

EV/EBITDA 46.7 25.2 28.6 13.3

P/E (x) - - 92.9 27.4

Price Performance CY13 CY14 CY15 YTD

Absolute -69% 181% 158% -12%

Relative -76% 149% 162% -7%

Analyst: Narendra [email protected]

Relative stock performance (Feb’15=100)

CMP: ₹144

Target: ₹185

Shareholding Pattern (as on Dec’15)

Key Data

Bloomberg Code TWL IN

NSE Code TWL

BSE Code 532966

Sector Capital Goods

Industry Transportation Equipment

Face Value (₹) 2.0

BV per share (₹) 60

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6%

52 Week L/H(₹) 71 / 175

Market Cap. (₹ mn.) 16,615

Titagarh Wagons Limited (TWL)

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2 Anand Rathi Research

Titagarh Wagons Limited (TWL) is one of the leading private sector wagon manufacturers in India. Incorporated in 1997-98TWL is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing Railway Wagons & EMUs (Coaches), Bailey Bridges, Heavy EarthMoving and Mining Equipment, Steel and SG iron castings of moderate to complex configuration etc.

TWL already manufactures certain products for the Indian defence establishment, such as special wagons, shelters andother engineering equipments and has recently been licensed to manufacture defence platform products.

TWL’s total capacity to manufacture wagons in India stands at 8400 wagons per year. It also has presence in Internationalmarkets with the acquisition of Firema Trasporti SpA giving the company access to new technology and a robustmanufacturing base.

During the latest financial year the company has witnessed a 22% growth in revenues at 7,611 million in FY15 as against₹6,241 million in FY14. Its EBITDA margins stood at 3.3% at ₹248 million in FY15 as against 0.6% at ₹35 million in FY14.

TWL has over time diversified itself from an only Wagon manufacturer into a EMU/MEMU, Metro coaches, Defenceprojects, heavy equipment products. TWL is the only Indian company having acquired key technologies to manufacturemodern metro trains and high speed trains through its acquisition of Firema Transporti. Firema currently has an order bookof ~Euro 285 million (~₹20,000-22,000 million).

With the acquisition of Firema, TWL is likely to enter into metro coaches and high speed train business in India and otheremerging economies in Asia and Africa going forward.

With recent changes in procurement policy for competitive bidding, nearing completion of DFC, increase in demand formetro rail infrastructure in the country, Indian railway infrastructure market is poised to witness a significant turnaround innext few years.

We believe, TWL being the second largest company in terms of manufacturing capacity is on the cusp of turning around ascapacity utilisation improves with operating leverage leading to increase in margins. We initiate our coverage with BUYrating on Titagarh Wagons Limited and a target price of ₹185 per share.

Equipped with capacity, capability & Credible technology in manufacturing both freight and transport vehicles



Strategically placed plants in India with presence in global markets.


Corporate Profile

TitagarhCapital Pvt

Ltd

TitagarhMarine Ltd

Titagarh Wagons Ltd.

Cimco Equity Holdings Pvt

Ltd

TitagarhSingapore Pte

Ltd

TitagarhWagons AFR

CimmcoLimited

CorporatedShipyard Pvt

Ltd

Times Marine Enterprises

Pvt Ltd

TitagarhAgrico Pvt Ltd

96.43%

74.76% 90%

TitagarhFirema Adler

SpA

NOTE: Only TWL holding less than 100% is specifically mentioned.


With well spread Product offerings

Titagarh Wagons Ltd.

Wagons Rail CoachesHeavy

EquipmentsFoundry Special Projects

• Hooper Wagon• Covered Wagon• Opentop Wagon• Container flat

Wagon• Tank Wagon• Flat Wagon• Special Purpose

Wagon

• EMU/MEMU• Metro Coaches

• Excavators• Crawler

mounted cranes

• EOT Cranes

• Various foundry products for captive use and special projects.

• Bailey bridges• Modular steel

bridges• Special

equipment for Defence

• Nuclear power equipment.



During the latest financial year the company has witnessed a 22% growth in revenues at 7,611 million in FY15 asagainst ₹6,241 million in FY14. The growth in revenues during the was mainly attributed to higher contributionfrom EMU (Rail Coaches) orders.

The revenues in past five years remains muted as the company was highly dependent on the orders from Indianrailways.

TWL’s EBITDA margins stood at 3.3% at ₹248 million in FY15 as against 0.6% at ₹35 million in FY14. The erosion inmargins historically are due to negative operating leverage due to lack of new orders and lower realization due tohigher competition in low complex wagon products.

Historical financial performance has been volatile…

Sales (Mn.) & Sales Growth EBITDA & EBITDA margins

0.0%

4.5%

9.0%

13.5%

18.0%

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15

EBITDA EBITDA Margins

-25%

-10%

5%

20%

35%

-

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15

TWL Standalone Other Subs. Sales growth (RHS)



TWL’s new wagon orders have declined sharply and during the latest financial year the companyhas received new orders worth of its 10% capacity only. The decline in orders was mainly due tolower tendering activity from Indian railways and lack of orders from private players due to delaysin DFC project.

…as Wagon orders lost momentum due to delays in tendering

TWL Wagon orders TWL Wagon Sales (Units) & Realization/Unit

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

FY0

3

FY0

4

FY0

5

FY0

6

FY0

7

FY0

8

FY0

9

FY1

0

FY1

1

FY1

2

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY15

Private Indian Railways

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0

750

1500

2250

3000

FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14 FY-15

Sales (Nos) Avg Realisation ₹ Mn (RHS)



TWL is one of the first private company in India approved by IR for the manufacture of Electrical Multiple Units (EMU)and Main Line Electrical Multiple Units (MEMU). The company has in execution orders for 23 rakes AC EMU/MEMUsecured from IR in FY12.

TWL commands significant market share in the private segment for EMU/MEMU segment with limited competition.The management expects additional orders from the Indian Railways in this segment in future.

With the Kolkata Metro Railway awarding a contract to TWL for the refurbishment of 56 coaches (7 rakes) valued at₹250 million marked TWL’s entry into the metro segment. The company has also acquired a Italy-based FiremaTrasporti S.p.A. and became the only company in India to possess the technology to manufacture metro coaches andhigh speed trains.

TWL is planning to absorb Firema;s technology into India in order to service Indian markets as well as service exportsmarket through its marketing network. TWL’s Italy subsidiary has an outstanding order book of around Euro 285million.

…incentivizing TWL’s diversification into new business segments to help stabilize revenues.

TWL’s EMU/MEMU and Metro Business: Domestic & Export opportunity

TWL has in recent past has got a licence to manufacture defence products in India. The company is planning to useCIMMCO’s strategically located manufacturing facilities into its defence equipment and wagon maintenance hubbusiness.

The company has already supplying some products like special purpose wagons, sheltersto the defence forces.

Defence Business:



Rail Freight traffic growth lagging than GDP…

India GDP growth rate (7.7% CAGR)

Railway freight traffic (Mn. Tons)

0

400

800

1200

FY-04 FY-05 FY-06 FY-07 FY-08 FY-09 FY-10 FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

FY-04 FY-05 FY-06 FY-07 FY-08 FY-09 FY-10 FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14


Source: Indian Railways, Anand Rathi Research


… implying capacity constraints in railways, resulting in traffic shifting to roads…

Line Capacity Utilization on IR

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2008

Road Rail

Traffic share between Rail & Road

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Central

Eastern

Northern

Western

Southern

< 80% 80-100% 100-120% 120-150% > 150%

NOTE: 16 Zones

Consolidated on

basis of Origin into 5

Zones




…Was result of lack of adequate numbers of rolling stock infrastructure despite increase in wagon capacity.

Current Freight, Passenger Wagon and EMU rolling stock (in ‘1000)

Freight Wagons (in ‘1000) Vs. Freight Capacity (Mn. Tons)

130

210

290

370

450

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Wagons in Numbers Passenger Carriages EMU/DMU/DHMU

0

4

8

12

16

0

100

200

300

400

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2012 2013 2014

Wagons Capacity (Mn ton) (RHS)




The DFC project was originally scheduled to be completed by FY17 but is currently running behindthe schedule and is expected to be fully completed by FY20.

Freight via the DFC is expected to increase from 140 MMT in 2016–17 to 182 MMT in 2021–22 at aCAGR of 5.4 percent. Container traffic, which is likely to be an important constituent of total trafficon the Western DFC, is expected to grow from 3.8 million TEUs in 2016–17 to 5.3 million TEUs in2021–22.*

With Dedicated freight corridor nearing completion, traffic is expected to increase

Traffic projections on DFC (MMT)

0

50

100

150

200

2017 2022

WDFC EDFC

EDFC

BHAUPUR-KHURJA: 342 km Mar-18

BHAUPUR-MUGHALSARAI: 402 km. Dec-18

DADRI-KHURJA-LUDHIANA: 450 km. Dec-19

MUGHALSARAI-SONNAGAR: 123 km Dec-17

WDFC

REWARI-IQBALGARH (625 km) Jun-18

IQBALGARH-VADODARA (325 km) Mar-19

VADODARA-JNPT (425 km) Oct-19

REWARI-DADRI (127 km) Sep-19

DFC tentative project phasing timelines

Source: KPMG, DFCCIL Anand Rathi Research

* Source: KPMG



Proposed investment in rolling stock during the period 2015-2019 is expected to be around ₹1,020 billionimplying an annual tendering of around ₹200 billion. However year 2015 has witnessed lower tendering thus theremaining tendering ticket size is expected to be higher.

…increasing requirement for procurement of additional rolling stock ahead of full DFC modal execution.

Proposed Investment Plan (2015-2019)

Particulars Cost (₹ Bn.)

Network Decongestion (including DFC, Electrification, Doubling including electrification and traffic facilities)

1,993

Network Expansion (including electrification) 1,930

National Projects (North Eastern & Kashmir connectivity projects) 390

Safety (Track renewal, bridge works, ROB, RUB and Signalling & Telecom) 1,270

Information Technology / Research 50

Rolling Stock (Locomotives, coaches, wagons – production & maintenance) 1,020

Passenger Amenities 125

High Speed Rail & Elevated corridor 650

Station redevelopment and logistic parks 1,000

Others 132

Total 8,560




Indian wagon manufacturing market has become non remunerative in past few years as new players have undercut the margins to garner some orders. This can be explained by the fact that in one of recent floated tenders forprocurement of 8,509 wagons, of which only 3,146 could be purchased through competitive bidding, as allcompanies except the winning (L1) bidder refused to supply wagons at the L1 price.

Following this the Railways resorted to dual pricing and the L2 agreed to only supply another 1,871 wagons at amark up of 21% from L1 while other companies still refused.

Currently India’s wagon market is in a peculiar situation where railway is not able to procure wagons despiteample capacity in the industry and the manufacturers not willing to supply at non remunerative prices.

As expectations build up, competition intensity is already high

Past four years Wagon tendering market share and realization per unit

Company Capacity Market Share (Value) Market Share (Volume)Avg. Realisation/Unit (Rs.

Mn.)

Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd. 10,000 25.6% 16.5% 2.2

Jupiter Wagons Ltd. 2,500 14.9% 17.0% 1.2

Besco Ltd. 5,000 12.6% 14.0% 1.3

Titagarh Wagons Ltd. (Including CIMMCO) 8,400 12.1% 13.6% 1.3

Hindustan Engineering & Industries Ltd. 3,900 9.4% 11.1% 1.2

Modern Industries 4,500 7.0% 7.3% 1.4

Jindal Rail Infrastructure Ltd. 3,000 5.8% 7.5% 1.1




Owing to the current logjam in the wagon procurement process, Railways recently has revamped its policy ofreleasing tenders and has scrapped its old policy of releasing the wagon contract in two tranches and will releasethe full wagon contract at oncein order to ensure that there is no break in production.

Under competitive bidding also it has changed rules on how to distribute the total orders among the successfulbidders. Earlier a successful L1 bidder got 50% of order while L2 and L3 got 30% & 20% respectively.

With the new policy in place, the L1 bidder will get to supply 22% of the total tendered amount while L2, L3, L4,L5 and L6 will be given a share of 20%, 18%, 16%, 13% and 11%.

It appears that the new policy could end the logjam and may help in de incentivizing aggressive bidders. Howeverits effects are yet to be seen.

However recent changes in procurement policy could promote healthy competition among players

45%60%

55%40%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Current Policy New Policy

Competitive Bidding Regular Sources

22% 20% 18% 16%13% 11%

50%

30%

20%

L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6

New Policy Current Policy


Source: Media reports, Anand Rathi Research Source: Media reports, Anand Rathi Research


TWL being second largest player armed with latest technology know how promises better prospect in near term

We expect TWL revenues to grow at a CAGR of 15% in next two years to ₹10,238 million in FY17E on back of

increase in domestic orders.

We expect TWL’s margins to improve on the back of higher capacity utilisation and improvement in realisation on

the new orders.

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Sales (Rs. Mn.) & EBITDA Estimates

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16E FY-17E

Sales EBITDA Margin



Expectation of tendering activity for railways

increasing in order to tackle capacity constraints,

preparing for completion of DFC and general

improvement in economic activities.

Increase in metro coaches demand due to increased

urbanisation needs, expansion into exports markets of

emerging countries in Asia and Africa.

TWL’s is on a cusp of a turnaround eyeing

opportunities from these segment helping it to

increase utilisation and improving margins.

At CMP the stock is trading at 27x FY-17E earnings.

We initiate our coverage on Titagarh Wagons Limited

with a BUY rating on the stock and a target price of

₹185 per share.

Relative stock performance (Feb’15=100)

Valuation and Recommendation:

Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research


(In ₹ mn) FY-14 FY-15 FY-16E FY-17E

EPS (₹) -0.8 -0.3 1.6 5.3

P/E (x) - - 92.9 27.4

P/B (x) 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2

ROE -1.3% -0.5% 2.5% 7.9%

ROCE 0.7% 1.8% 4.7% 12.0%

EV/EBIDTA (x) 46.7 25.2 28.6 13.3


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Margins FY-14 FY-15 FY-16E FY-17E

Sales Growth % -20.2% 22.0% 4.5% 26.2%

Operating Margin % 0.6% 3.3% 2.5% 7.7%

Net Margin % -1.4% -0.4% 2.2% 6.0%

Consolidated Financials:


(In ₹ Mn.) FY-14 FY-15 FY-16E FY-17E

Liabilities

Equity Share Capital 201 202 202 202

Reserves & Surplus 6,425 6,684 6,863 7,470

Totat Shareholder's Funds 6,625 6,885 7,064 7,671

Minority Interest 215 364 364 364

Long-Term Liabilities 232 427 427 427

Other Long-term Liabilities 51 76 76 76

Deferred Tax Liability 18 (20) (20) (20)

Short-term Liabilities 3,655 2,842 1,436 1,812

Total 10,796 10,574 9,347 10,330

Assets

Net Fixed Assets 3,342 4,417 1,294 1,629

Long-Term L&A 291 224 224 224

Non Current Investments 332 12 12 12

Other Non-Current Assets 19 20 20 20

Current Asset 6,811 5,901 7,797 8,445

Total 10,796 10,574 9,347 10,330

(In ₹ Mn.) FY-14 FY-15 FY-16E FY-17E

Net Sales 6,241 7,611 7,955 10,038

Operating Expense 6,207 7,363 7,756 9,260

EBITDA 35 248 199 778

Other Income 331 428 398 502

Depreciation 183 257 222 256

EBIT 183 419 375 1,024

Interest 136 177 108 118

Misc. items (113) (278) - -

PBT (66) (35) 267 906

Tax 39 63 88 299

Minority Interest 16 65 - -

PAT (89) (33) 179 607



The company’s primary business is highly dependent on Indian Railways tendering process. Any delay or

cancellation of these may result in lower than expected performance.

Company is exposed to currency exchange risk.

Key Risks:



Rating and Target Price history:

Date Rating Target Price (₹) Share Price (₹)

01-Feb-16 BUY 185 144

NILK rating detailsTWL rating history & price chart

Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research

NOTE: Prices are as on 01st Feb 2016 close.


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Documents

Titagarh Wagons Limited (TWL)2 Anand Rathi Research Titagarh Wagons Limited (TWL) is one of the leading private sector wagon manufacturers in India. Incorporated in 1997-98 TWL is