TIMING SECRETSHow You Can Determine Trend

and Market Turning PointsSimply & Quickly

By George R. Harrison

TIMING SECRETSBy George R. Harrison

© Copyright 2001-2018 - George Harrison, Christiansted , St. Croix, Virgin Islands, USA

PLEASE NOTE:

No portion of this work may be copied, distributed or recordedexcept as per the non-disclosure agreement with the original owner.

Introduction

It’s assumed that you have arrived at this Manual after a complete readingof “Trade Secrets”. If not, please do read that publication first.

The Commercial approach to trading is the ONLY way advocated by this manual and author. By that, I mean a Long-term outlook and the use of Seasonal Patterns and CASH equivalent positions (Fully-funded Futures or Options).

Combine the above with Patience and the Discipline to follow the Plan and you will find success where so very many others do not.

The Commodity Markets are a marvelous source of investment opportunitieseach and every year. Now is your time to take advantage of the incredible potential that awaits. Especially in the coming Cold-Years & crop shortages.

Success is always up to you, of course. My mission is to present you with a few,simple, solid concepts that will give you the right mindset; that of the CommercialTrader who has to make money each and every year.

What follows in this short but powerful manual is a trend detection tool that works especially well for Long-Term trends in the Markets (like the Seasonal Patterns made most average years in Commodities).

You’ll need to find some charts that show daily price bars going back 3-months ormore if possible. The longer the time period examined the better the perspective you will develop and the better you’ll be able to anticipate the Market.

Outside of a Chart, all you’ll need is a good pen or pencil to mark the chartand write down your support and resistance findings for the weeks ahead.

I’ve tried so many different types of analysis of varying complexities that itwould be too long a list to describe. What I’ve found after over 50-Years is the humbling fact that: The Simplest Tools are often the best.

Save yourself a great deal of stress and frustration by not seeking perfectionin a trading tool or method. It’s a fruitless and impossible task but one which most of us seem to pursue at one time or another anyways.

Consistency and a better than average success rate are more than enough to giveyou a decided edge when you combine a CASH outlook with Long-Term Trends in the Markets.

This Manual deals with Time and how we can use it or rather decipher it’spassing to give valuable clues to price trends and turning points in the Markets.This is just a fractional part of some amazing things I’ve discovered concerning Time and it’s relationship to Prices over the many years of my original research.

Most of this information is available through the www.wdgann-lost-secrets.com website.

Perspective is one of the first casualties suffered in the life of a trader.

The Industry offers us a convenient model for the action of the Market, butthe tools it offers us are often too leveraged to be safely used. I’m speakingof course of the dangers of margined futures. Steer clear of them as recommended in the 'Trade Secrets' manual if you wish to have consistent results.

Time consists of several elements. I’ll show you one aspect in this Manualbut another that is often overlooked is the time element contained withinthe word “Patience”.

Patience is a critical component of our approach to trading longer term moves in the commodity markets. I’ll show you how to determine and follow the trend to a seasonally expected turning point, but, you have to be able to be patient enough to wait for the signal.

Waiting is a HUGE component to trading Successfully

You have to wait for the good trades. Every day, week or month does not present an optimal opportunity to trade. You must know this fact: More Money is Made byWaiting than by Activity.

That statement is a paraphrase from one of the greatest traders of the 20thCentury, Jesse Livermore. He didn’t say that it was easy, in fact, it is the hardest

thing to sit on a winning position and letting it move. Sometimes the best and most successful action is inaction. Mr. Livermore said he 'made more money fromsitting than from actively trading'. We should go, and do likewise.

What follows is a simple, non-complex method of determining when to sit and when to act.

Do not be fooled by it’s simplicity. The Wise Man said to “Test all things”; so, test this technique against some historical charts. When you discover how well it works, put it to work for yourself.

- George R. Harrison- Author, Trader and Researcher -

A Time Secret

I had a choice writing this manual. Did I want to present the philosophy behindthe technique or just the technique itself?

As most investors interested in following the long term program of trading(advocated in the “Trade Secrets” manual) are intent on the trading insteadof the esoteric, even mystical aspects of how time affects price, I opted forpresenting the technique as simply and directly as possible with the thinnest explanation of the reasoning involved.

Believe me, all you’ll need to function most effectively will be in your hands in thenext few minutes.

Effectiveness and truth are not measured by the number of pages required to present them. Thinner books and manuals are generally better because they contain less “fluff”.

This manual is certainly one of those. In just a few pages, you’ll learn how to do what surprisingly few commodity investors do well - detect and follow trends.

Let’s get started now.

The greatest knowledge you could possess about the Markets comes in two flavors: knowing exact prices of tops and bottoms of moves and knowing just which direction the true trend is going at any particular time period.

This course will not deal with the first question (that remains for those interestedin the courses offered that reveals how tops & bottoms were predicted by the author of this Manual).

The direction of the prevailing trend can be known quite accurately as well as the critical price points where these trends will change. That is the information that isabout to be covered.

Seasonal trading patterns are an excellent way to use the cash approach tocommodity trading. The difficult part of seasonal trading has been when theannual average patterns do not hold and trends continue their movementswithout reversing as expected.

Believe me, all you’ll need to function most effectively will be in your trading toolbox in the next few minutes.

Effectiveness and truth are not measured by the number of pages required to present them. Thinner books and manuals are generally better because they contain less “fluff”.

Most seasonal trading patterns in grains have broken down recently with the continued deflationary movement of the markets.

Markets that have gone lower and lower even during expected high demandperiods have fooled and hurt many traders financially.

At the time of the original edition of this manual, Coffee had hit 26-year Lows andCotton 15-year Lows.

Is there any way we could have anticipated those downtrends to have continuedover the ensuing years?

Yes! There is a simple, effective way that would have kept traders from buying into such a weak market and, instead could have taken advantage of the downwards market trends and who could have made BIG money on the declines that went on for years to come.

What you would have needed (and, will need, (in the future) to accomplish these miraculous deeds are some copies of daily commodity bar charts showing closing prices. These are available for free on the internet .

I hope you’re all familiar already with what a price bar looks like, but, just in caseyou aren't, it looks like this:

The Closing Price is the only price we will concern ourselves with using this method.

Why the Closing daily price is important.

The largest volume of orders occur at the opening and closing of the Market day. Much of the opening price activity is left over from orders that were unfilled on the previous day’s close. So, the Closing price contains the consensus of trading activity, desires & expectations. The Closing price, therefore, reflects most accurately what the Market will bear.

It’s an important price that will help us determine (when we examine enough of them), just where significant price support & resistance lies.

The bar charts above have Closing prices at different price levels.

The point of the example is that they’re very easy to locate on any chart you’ll encounter. We’re concerned with only 2 of the Closing Prices.

The next exercise will be to take another look at the bar chart above and

determine at a glance which bar has the Highest Closing Price and which bar hasthe Lowest Closing Price.

As you can quickly see from the examples on the previous page, it is very easy topick out both the highest and lowest close on a daily bar chart.Let’s apply the proper context to this skill in order to make use of it.

We are NOT concerned with everyday bar chart closes in general. That would be too tedious and not useful for our needs and purposes.

Instead, we will Simplify our technique even further by looking for only Two Closing prices (the Highest Closing Price and the Lowest Closing Price) within a specified time period.

Most price cycles (from lows to highs) occur within a one month period, some take longer, two or even three months at times.

We will take the one month cycle as our average and apply this time periodto our examples using the Highest Close and the Lowest Close within a one monthtime period and see what happens.

The red arrows on the chart below show the Highest Close within a one-month period for the Downtrend. Note how well this line, extended into the Next Month describes a strong Resistance price point.

The chart is repeated on the next page, but, this time the Highest Close of the Previous Month is represented as a line drawn horizontally across at the same price level for the Next Month only. Prices reversed quickly and a 1-Month Support Line did not respond well to the price movements that happened. We did not advance the support line for reasons that you will learn in the coming pages.

This could have been handled in at least two ways:Good:We could use the Lines to enter & exit trades and take the loss that happened when the Closing Price dropped below the support line. The loss was minimal and is a part of the trading business we’re in.

Better:We also could have taken the Long trade and exited when prices spiked totheir previous highs. Our Options would have gone up tremendously in value. By having a reasonable price objective on each trade, we can still profit from moves like the reversal below.

If a 50%+ gain on your Options was your goal, then you would have happily exited the trade before the trend came back down again.

This is a good time to emphasize an important trading concept for long-termsuccess and that is, combining a good trend indication tool with reasonable profit objectives is the best combination you can have for making profit in the Market on the basis of goals being met is a recipe for success.

Don’t worry that you may be getting off the trend too early. You can always re-enter a continuing trend later!

There is no other investment that will return 50%+ on your investmentin several months that does not entail much larger risks of loss. The key is to be “reasonable” in your target profit expectations. If you’re in a position for only a month and you’re up by 20-30%, that’s a great return on an annual basis.

If you’re in a position that’s been trending for 3 months or more and you’ve hit the 50% profit target, you’re doing great with the position, take some profits off the table, leave a little more in the account and re-enter the market if all the trend indicators are still in your favor.

By approaching your trades from a “units of profit” perspective two veryimportant elements to success occur:

1) You’ll quickly reward yourself for profitable moves and not watch them slip away as the market eventually turns. This is called positive re-enforcement.You’re rewarding yourself for doing the right thing.

2) You’ll be accumulating funds in your account and not recommitting them all back to the market. Again, this is positive re-enforcement. You get to walk away

with cash from your trading successes by never placing them all back at risk.

The Rules

Close out positions that have made a “reasonable” profit even if the trend is still intact! Let each separate trade have a profit objective that is reachable.

Don’t hold positions from Resistance to Support Lines. Use the Lines to enter a planned “unit of profit” trade, then exit.

The next chart below shows how well this technique can work when markets are in decline over a period of time.

Cotton had hit 15-year lows and has not met it’s seasonal expectations for May & June Highs.

It should always be remembered that the annual Seasonal tendencies are only just that: 'tendencies' - Trend and especially strong, Yearly Trends have the momentum to change the results expected in average years.

That is why it is so very important to measure the sense of what the market will bear where prices are concerned.

The measurement of longer time periods and the Closing Prices at the critical topsand bottoms of the time period are extremely indicative of what to expect next.

The ability to follow the trend-in-progress is a critical key to success and profitability in Commodity trading as a Business

Each of the red Resistance lines would have kept you in line with Cotton’s true trend downward over this 7 month period. The profits would have been exceptional using Options as recommended in our “Trade Secrets” course.

In An Uptrend: We will frame a one, two or three month's period and find the Lowest Closing price and extend a line at that price level from the END of that time period, forward for the same amount of time period into the future.

This Will Act As A Price Support Line

Any Closing Price on a Price Bar that drops below this support line will bean indicator that the trend has changed from Upwards to Downwards.

In Summary:

Support Lines are used for Up-trends and are located below price activity.

Resistance Lines are used for Down-trends and are located above price activity.

This is the place to add a rule to the method that seems to work best or most conservatively when tracking trends using this approach.

UNLESS THE MONTH BEING EXAMINED HAS ADVANCED OR DECLINEDON THE PREVIOUS MONTH’S RANGE, DO NOT CHANGE THE SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE LINE FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH.

We only need to adjust the Resistance Lines or Support Lines in the Month-to-come if there has been overall Price Movement during the month beforecompared to the month-before-that.

If advancement in price movement in the direction of the trend has not occurred, we will continue to use the lines from the previous month as they are the dominating line for determining trend.

In the chart below, the month of May did not advance the downtrend in April because it did not make a lower Close than the lowest Close in April.

This one rule will keep us from getting too close to sideways moving marketswhile they pause or set up for reversal. There are many false moves in the market. We want to follow the Cash traders not futures gamblers.

The Live Cattle chart below shows a Market that is out of sync with it’sseasonal tendencies.

Normally, Cattle makes it’s seasonal lows in June of the year. This year, it made highs in June! What do you do when the expected is turned upside down? We don’t have to remain confused.

Employing the timing tool we’ve been discussing let’s see how we could have anticipated the trend. Following the trend upwards, we would have gotten an advanced indication of the impending fall in prices. It would have taken 2-3 months of patience, but what a move!

The Blue arrow shows how early you could have become aware of the trend change that had occurred. Well ahead of the masses of investors, you could have placed PUT OPTIONS in place 3-6 months out that would have inflated in value tremendously from the drop over the next 3 months.

This is another example of the usefulness of this timing approach. I will proceedto some others to make the case for a simple, effective means of measuringtrend without the use of a computer (unless you wish to get your charts on the internet) or use other complex, expensive hardware or software.

In the Coffee chart below, we can see an excellent example of another early indication of the downtrend to come. That indicator came at point “A” weeks ahead of the drop that followed.

The leverage (without margin) you could have employed using Commodity

Options would have increased your profits by triple figure percentagesin this case.

The Resistance Lines were generated after the signal to go short occurred. The Red Lines followed declining prices very nicely all the way down.

By using these lines as reversal points for the trend, and using a cash equivalent product like Options or fully-funded futures contracts, you essentially have your exit and reverse points all in one simple tool.

The assumption from our chart is that prices on the left side are in a short-term uptrend so we use the Lowest Close in April as the lower limit for the next month (May). This price is penetrated by the Closing Price located at “A” on the chart. This allowed us to catch a major move.

Believe it or not, the method described will satisfy most of the circumstancesyou will encounter in a normal year of seasonal trading.

As mentioned when we began the discussion however, there will be times when the time period we will be examining must be expanded to two or even three months in size in order to accommodate the Market conditions we are in (volatile price movements) or because we’re in Long-Term Trends that have continued for a long period.

In the case of a two-month period, we will look for the Highest Close that has occurred within the prior two months. This will be used for Down-trending Markets. For Up-trending Markets, we will use the Lowest Close that has occurred

in the previous two months.

How Do I Know Whether to use One Month, Two Months or Three?

Look at the past chart history of the trend you are in at present or the trend before and note if the One-Month Line would have held as the trend continued. If it did not, then, use a larger time increment and go back and test it until you find a time period that has worked well. Use the same increment in the future.

Each Commodity has it’s own comfortable cycle of movement, but, start with one month and work to longer periods when necessary.

The general rule is that the more volatile the Commodity, that is, the more erraticprice movements are, the longer the time period you’ll have to use to keep from being prematurely popped out of a trade.

It should be noted, however, that even if you pick a time interval that is too short initially, you stand to still be profitable on the Trade as long as you use Cash-Like positions or Options and as long as you give yourself enough time by getting contracts or options that go out 3, 6 or more months out into the future.

Be kind to yourself and give yourself time for the trade to work out. It takes time for these big trades to work out and time for the trends to establish themselves. Remember to take profits when your targets are hit.

Please, please, do not be fooled by the simplicity of this approach. Ignore the talking heads, media, brokers etc. if you wish to employ this approach.

The below chart of Lean Hogs is an illustration of how to apply a Two-MonthSupport Line to an Up-trending Market.

It shows how nicely it picked the trend change after 3 months of sidewaysdirectionless trading.

The Hog and Pork Belly Markets can be volatile and as mentioned on theprevious page, volatile markets require larger time periods to work out theirtrends.

Let historical charts be your guide.

Take the time to study the historical charts of the markets of interest before you invest.

Patience is the virtue we often mention in the “Trading as a Business” field.

A little perspective will quickly enable you to pick which time period to useon the chart you’re following. Start with multiples of 1 Month.

One, Two or Three Month periods will cover most of the Commodities you’llbe interested in.

Let’s review the rules of trading and timing the Market Trends covered.

The Timing Secret

You’ve learned a simple, effective way of determining trends when combinedwith the approaches advocated in the “Trade Secrets” Manual.

No method of interpretation is perfect and that will apply to this method aswell. The numbers are with us most of the time however and if history is tobe any guide, you’ll find that this method has worked wonderfully in the past.

The Markets haven’t changed. They continue to fluctuate. Volatility runs high thenlow again. There are huge movement years and quiet years. That’s the Nature of the Markets and why we need to apply a good method of evaluating what’s being

presented to us on a day-to-day basis and project that against the momentum of Time and Price.

A Quick Review To Establish the Trend:

Use only the Closing Price on Daily Price Bars.

If Markets are in a Down-trend, find the Highest Close during the previous one-month (if the Market is volatile or the trend is long-term you may need to use two-month or even three-month time periods). You will use this Highest Closeto establish a Resistance Price Line for the month to come. If prices Close above this Resistance Price Line, then the Trend is considered to have changed.

If Markets are in a Up-trend, find the Lowest Close during the previous one-month (if the Market is volatile or the trend is long-term you may need to use two-month or even three-month time periods). You will use this Lowest Close to establish a Support Price Line for the month to come. If prices Close below thisSupport Price, then the Trend is considered to have changed.

A quick review: To Enter and Exit a Market

Enter Positions (Long or Short, Calls or Puts) when a new Trend is established (see above) and:

Exit Trades when you’ve reached a reasonable target profit of 30-50%+ on the trade. Use your Option cost as a Stop.

Most courses on trading computerize their “secrets” instead of sharing themwith their clients. Complexity is overrated as far as results are concerned.

Check out this method for yourself. You’ll find this: A cautious approach usinga CASH equivalent trading and this simple trend detection method will enableyou to catch some very significant moves that will quickly more thanpay for this information.

That’s my intention, to keep your costs low and your break-even point for trading very close.

Some may wonder why I advocate using such a simple approach to trading. The answer is also simple Because It Works!

You see, the real problem with Futures Trading was never the technicalanalysis, but, the fact that the technical analysis was structured around a very highly leveraged product like margined futures.

As mentioned in my other publication “Trade Secrets”, there just is no wayto consistently beat the 50:1 odds over time using standard techniques or approaches.

That’s why we use the CASH approach of the Commercials and combine that with the Trend Detection Method in this Manual.

Success is a journey, not a destination. We want to establish good habits to use on that journey and savor the successful results of a sound approach.

Never try to get all of a move. That's just pure Greed.

Also, don’t try to buy absolute tops or bottoms in any market. You’ll find yourself experiencing more success, less stress and having a happier Life.

Instead, target a good return on your Money. And, use it in the CASH equivalent ways discussed in “Trade Secrets”. You’ll find yourself experiencing more success, less stress and a happier Life.

That is my greatest wish for you. A Happy, adjusted, reasonable, Patient and meaningful LIFE.

More advanced information and trading approaches are available for those who have purchased this course. You may find them offered at www.wdgann-lost-secrets.com for your selection.

I certainly want to thank you for your attention and interest in your trading adventure.

Best Success, G. R. Harrison

FOR MORE INFORMATION AND THE LATEST RESEARCH

Visit www.wdgann-lost-secrets.com

For questions contact: george@wdgann-lost-secrets.com

Published by Prosperity River Enterprises, Christiansted, USVI

Copyright 2018 George R. Harrison, Christiansted, USVI ALL RIGHTS RESERVED