Time-invarying Covariates of Successive Births in Pakistan

Ali MuhammadPh.D. Candidate

Department of SociologyUniversity of Western Ontario

London, OntarioEmail: amuhamma@uwo.ca

Webpage: http//beatific.topcities.com/Muhammad/Ali.html

TFR Trends: Pakistan, 1962-2002

4.5

5.65.45.56.0

6.9

8.07.17.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

PGE (

1962-

65)

PFS (1

965-69)

PLM (1

970-75

)

PGS (

1976-7

9)

PCPS

(1984-

85)

PDHS (

1986-91

)

PFFPS

(1992-9

6)

PCPS

(1994-

95)

PIHS (

2001-0

2)

Data Sources with Years

TFR

Objective of the study

To estimate the hazards of having 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th births with different attributes of women.

Data

MIMAP (The Micro Impact of Macro Adjustment

Policies) 2001

Sample Size: 4003 Households Women Interviewed (15-49): 4500 Eligible Women: 3349

Methodology

Cox Regression Five models are estimated separately

for each parity to examine the affect of different covariates.

Covariates:

Birth Cohorts (Younger; born before 1968 and older; after 68),

Age at first marriage (< 16, 16-19 and 20+), Province of Residence (Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, Baluchistan) Type of Residence (Urban/ Rural), Education of mother (No schooling, 8 years, 9+ years), Employment status of mother (Working, Not working), Sex of surviving children, Participation in Household Decision-making, Family Planning Discussion with Husband, Can Go Out in Need and Life Satisfaction.

Results: Birth cohorts

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

Exp (

B)

1st Birth 2nd Birth 3rd Birth 4th Birth 5th Birth

Birth Order

Relative Risks of Having Births by Cohorts of Women

Yonger

Older

*** *** ******

Reference: Younger Cohort, *** Significant at <0.001

Age at first marriage

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

Exp (

B)

2nd Birth 3rd Birth 4th Birth 5th Birth

Birth Order

Relative Risks of Having Births at Age at First Marriage

20 or 20+

16-19 Year

< 16 Years

All coefficients are significant at < 0.001, Reference: < 16 years

Provinces and type of residence

Provinces

Relative Risks of Having

1st birth 2nd Birth 3rd Birth 4th Birth 5th Birth

Punjab (Ref)

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Sindh ***1.225 ***1.212 ***1.161 1.091 0.985

NWFP ***1.217 ***1.179 1.030 1.000 0.948

Baluchistan 0.955 ***1.627 ***1.498 ***1.365 1.109

Type of Residence

Urban 1.050 *0.929 *1.089 1.065 1.057

Rural (Ref.) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Significant at *** <0.001, ** < 0.05 and <0.10

Socio-economic variables

EducationRelative Risks of Having

1st birth 2nd Birth

3rd Birth 4th Birth

5th Birth

No Education ®

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

< 9 years ***0.811 0.980 0.947 0.888 1.028

9+ years ***0.480 ***0.748 ***0.694 ***0.516

***0.527

Work Status

Working **0.910 0.973 *0.908 0.928 ***0.850

Not Working ® 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Significant at *** <0.001, ** < 0.05 and <0.10 level

Sex of childrenSex of Children Second Birth Third Birth Fourth Birth Fifth BirthSex of first ChildBoy (Reference) 1.000 - - -Girl 1.037 - - -Sex of first two childrenBoth Boys - 1.000 - -Both Girls - 1.065 - -One Boy, One Girl (Reference) - 1.000 - -Sex of First Three ChildrenAll Boys - - 1.095 -All Girls - - ***1.268 -Two Boys, One Girl (Reference) - - 1.000 -One Boy, Two Girls - ***1.156 -

Sex of First Four ChildrenAll Boys - - - 0.898All Girls - - - ***1.367Two Boys, Two Girls (Reference) - - - 1.000Three Boys, One Girl - - - 0.931Three Girls, One Boy - - - **1.149

*** Significant at <0.001, ** <0.05 and *at <0.10

Survival status of previous child

0.0000.2000.4000.6000.8001.0001.2001.4001.6001.800

Exp (

B)

2nd Birth 3rd Birth 4th Birth 5th birth

Birth Order

Relative risks of having births by survival status of previous child

Alive

Died

All coefficients are significant at <0.001

Women’s autonomy variables

Decision-making Participation

Relative Risks of Having

1st birth 2nd birth 3rd birth 4th birth 5th birth

Participate **0.909 ***0.850 ***0.864 0.928 ***0.843

Do not Participate (Reference)

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

FP Discussion with Husband

Discuss ***0.848 ***0.874 ***0.793 ***0.840 **0.842

Do not Discuss (Reference) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Can Go out Unaccompanied

Yes 0.947 0.967 1.007 0.967 **1.128

No (Reference) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Overall Life Satisfaction

Very much satisfied ***1.113 1.024 0.926 0.982 **0.853

Satisfied to some extent 1.075 1.033 0.961 1.026 0.966

Not satisfied 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Significant level: *** at <0.001, ** at <0.05 and * at <0.10

Conclusion

What does make difference?

Higher age at first marriage, Higher level of education, Sex of children, Survival status of previous child, Participation in household decision-making

and Family planning discussion with husband.

Policy Recommendations

Increase in age at first marriage by Increasing the opportunities for women’s access to

higher education and employment, Educating women to realize that either sex is

better, Providing better health facilities to reduce the

incidences of infant and child mortality, Encouraging women to participate in household

decision-making as well as Making them able to discuss their FP matters

with their husbands.

Thanks