21
Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016

Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference

27 October, 2016

Page 2: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

2

Today’s presenters

JOHAN MENCKEL

CEO

Since: 2012Gränges since: 2004

OSKAR HELLSTRÖM

CFO

Since: 2011

2

Page 3: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

3

Gränges Group

• A global leader in the market for rolled products for brazed aluminium heat exchangers

• Production in Sweden, China and in the US• R&D Centre in Sweden and China• Headquarter in Stockholm• Gränges is represented all over the world

• ~1,500 employees

• Listed on Nasdaq Stockholm

• Net sales exceeding SEK 10 billion including the recent US acquisition

We have a global market share of approximately 20% in rolled products for brazed aluminium heat exchangers.

Page 4: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

4

� Completion of acquisition in the US

� Sales volume increased by 62% to 62.8 ktonnes – organic growth of 6%

� Adjusted operating profit increased to SEK 181 million – SEK 132 million if excluding acquisition

� Positive tax effect of SEK139 millionrelated to Chinese operations

� Cash flow before financing excludingcash consideration for US acquisitionwas SEK 313 million

� Net debt of 2.2x EBITDA

Third quarter 2016 – Successful acquisition in US and strong performance in existing business

Page 5: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

5

� Gränges has acquired Noranda’s downstream aluminium rolling business

� Attractive valuation with an EBITDA multiple of 6.2x (FY 2015)

� The business has net sales of 550 MUSD and some 550 employees

� Gränges takes an important step towards realising its goal for 2020

� Integration is proceeding very well

Acquisition in US successfully completed

Page 6: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

6

� Grow significantly above the market rate� Become the market leader in all geographical regions� Maintain good and sustainable profitability

The acquisition in US is an important step for Gränges to deliver on the 2020 goal and strategy

Drive growth throughinnovation

• Lead the development of heat exchanger materials

• Offer the most advanced solutions

• Be the preferred partner for our customers

Create value from sustainability

• Zero accident target• Reduce waste• Increase recycling• Ensure diversity• Be an attractive employer

Increase efficiencythrough continuous

improvements

• Improve process stability• Increase productivity• Increase energy efficiency• Improve metal

management

Grow presencethrough structural

expansion

• Add production capacityin North America

• Increase production capacity in Asia

• Expand into adjacent market segments

Gränges 2020 goal and strategy

Page 7: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

7

Diversification of business portfolio strengthens Gränges’ position in the market for rolled aluminium

Sales volume per end-usemarket 2015

Pro forma Gränges incl. Noranda sales volume per end-use market 2015

Note: Gränges incl. Noranda pro forma figures shows approximate effects of the transaction

Automotive HEX47%

HVAC24%

Other29%

Automotive HEX92%

HVAC 3%

Other 5%

Total sales volume 164 ktonnes Total sales volume 336 ktonnes

Page 8: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

8

9th Technical Seminar in Nanjing, China

Gränges adopts to UN Global Compact

Significant events during third quarter

Page 9: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

9

Source: IHS Automotive, September 16, 2016

Market growth of 3% expected for full year 2016

Light vehicle production growth (YoY)

Region

Asia

Europe

Americas

Global

Q3 2016 Q4 2016 outlook FY 2016 outlook

+5%

-2%

+10%

0%

+2%

+3%

0%

+1%

+3%

+3%

+4%

0%

Page 10: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

10

Strong development in Asia and continued strong growthin Americas – both organic and through acquisition

Asia Europe Americas

� Strong sales to Chinese automotive customers

� Weak automotive market in China in third quarter 2015

� Continued growth for heat exchanger materials

� Decreased sales of scrap based products

� Sales volume from acquired business 21.8 ktonnes

� Excluding acquired business, sales volume increased by 10% to 7.1 ktonnes

Gränges sales volume (ktonnes)

20162015

+8%

17.6 17.520.8 20.4 19.0

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

14.9 15.4 16.6 16.9 15.0

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

6.5 6.0 7.8 9.2

28.9

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

+1%

+348%

20162015 20162015

Page 11: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

11

Positive trend continues in third quarter and is further strengthened by the US acquisition

Rolling 12 months sales volume and adjusted operating profit

160 160 160 160 161 163 163 164 166 169

193

148149147158 159155154152

362 374 348 372 371401

437 444 463521 528 541 541 563

632

286199 245

494

100

150

200

250

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q30

200

400

600

800 Adjusted operating profit (SEK million)

Sale

s vol

ume

(kto

nnes

)

Sales volume Adjusted operating profit

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 12: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

12

1. Adjusted for items affecting comparability2. Diluted, historical earnings per share has been calculated on the same number of shares as of today3. Including estimated adjusted EBITDA on a stand-alone basis for the acquired business in the US

Successful acquisition in US and strong performance in existing business in third quarter

SEK million Q3

Financial overview

January - September

2016 2015 Change 2016 2015 Change

Sales volume (ktonnes) 62.8 38.9 61.5% 154.4 125.0 23.5%

Net sales 1,859 1,281 45.2% 4,662 4,243 9.9%

Adjusted operating profit1 181 112 61.2% 516 425 21.4%

Adjusted operating margin (%) 9.7 8.8 1.0 ppt 11.1 10.0 1.0 ppt

Adjusted operating profit per tonne (kSEK) 2.9 2.9 0.0 3.3 3.4 -0.1

Operating profit 88 97 -10.0% 397 410 -3.2%

Profit for the period 189 69 173.6% 397 295 34.2%

Earnings per share2 (SEK) 2.52 0.93 1.60 5.30 3.95 1.34

Cash flow before financing activities -2,285 267 n/a -2,150 440 n/a

Return on capital employed, R12 (%) 18.7 17.5 1.2

Net debt / adjusted EBITDA, R123 2.2 0.6 +1.6

Page 13: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

13

251237 -144

-2 598

-31

-2 823-43-160

-335

-3 500

-3 000

-2 500

-2 000

-1 500

-1 000

-500

0

500 Cash flow before financing SEK -2 285 million

Net debt was SEK 2.8 billion at the end of third quarter

Change in net debt

Net

deb

t pos

ition

(SEK

mill

ion)

Net debtQ2 2016

Adjusted EBITDA

Change in working capital

Other operating

items

Investments& divestments

of fixed assets

Acquisi-tion cash consider-

ation

Assumed pension liability

FX &other

Net debtQ3 2016

0.4 2.2

Net debt over adjusted EBITDA1

1. Adjusted EBITDA rolling 12 months, including estimated stand alone adjusted EBITDA for the acquired business in the US as of Q3, 2016

Page 14: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

14

Total assets were SEK 7.6 billion at the end of third quarter

Assets Equity & liabilities

Total assets 7,582

Total non-current assets 3,951

Total current assets 3,631

Total equity 2,712

Total non-current liabilities 3,370

Total current liabilities 1,500

Total equity & liabilities 7,582

Property, plant & equipment 1,712

Intangible assets 441

Inventories & receivables 774

New bank financing 2,709

Other liabilities 239

Preliminary impact on the balance sheet from the US acquisition per September 30, 2016 (SEK million)

� New bank financing– 5 year term loan

USD 300 million

– 3 year revolvingcredit facilitySEK 1,200 million

� Financing costs expected to increase by some SEK 80 million per year at current base rates and FX rates

� Assumed pension liability of SEK 160 million

� Depreciation and amortisation expected to increase by some SEK 175-200 million per year at current FX rates

� Sustaining capex estimated to increaseby SEK 100-120 millionper year in mediumto long term

Items related toUS acquisition

Note: Purchase price allocation is preliminary and may be subject to change and this may in turn impact the size of depreciation and amortization going forward.

Page 15: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

15

US acquisition changes seasonality of Gränges’ business

Sales volume per quarter 2015

37.8

85.089.5

84.876.7

38.942.7 43.4

38.946.1

42.3 45.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sale

s vol

ume

(kto

nnes

)

26 24 25 26 27 27 24 27 25 24 22 23

Existing business Combined existing business and acquired business

Quarterly sales volume as percentage of annual sales volumeAcquired business

Page 16: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

16

Sales volume is an important earnings driver for the acquired business

Sales volume (ktonnes) 172

Net sales 551

Cost of materials 360

Operating expenses 139

Adjusted EBITDA1 52

USD million 2015

Income statement of acquired business

� Cost of materials may be considered asfully variable with sales volume

� Operating expenses may be consideredas half fixed and half variable with volume

1. EBITDA adjusted for stand alone costs estimated by Gränges.

Page 17: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

17

� Global Light Vehicle Production is expected to grow by 2%1 in Q4 2016 –for the full year 2016 a growth of 3% is projected

� Automotive HEX - above market growth is expected in Asia and Americas, while growth in line with the market is projected in Europe in Q4

� The acquired business in US is expected to grow sales volume by some 1-2% year over year in Q4

� Positive outlook for 2017. Ambition to continue to grow and strengthen our presence and position globally

Outlook

1. Source: IHS Automotive, September 16, 2016

Page 18: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

18

� Best quarter for Gränges so far

� Completion of US acquisition

� Sales volume 62.8 ktonnes

� Adjusted operating profit rose to SEK 181 million

� Earnings per share SEK 2.52

� Net debt of 2.2x EBITDA

Summary of third quarter

Page 19: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

Q&AJohan Menckel, CEO

Oskar Hellström, CFO

Page 20: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

20

Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3

Existing business 42.7 43.4 38.9 38.9 163.9 45.1 46.5 41.1

Acquired business 42.3 46.1 45.9 37.8 172.1 45.3 46.7 46.51

Combined business 85.0 89.5 84.8 76.7 336.1 90.4 93.2 87.6

ktonnes 2015

Sales volume

2016

1. In total 21.8 ktonnes of the sales volume for the acquired US business are included in Gränges reported sales volume for Q3 2016.

Page 21: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference€¦ · Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference 27 October, 2016. 2 Today’s presenters JOHAN MENCKEL CEO ... Appendix: Sales volume 2015-2016