Woodbine

1

OPWA Right of Way Management Conference

Ajax Ontario November 13 2018

Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROWMission Possible Strategies to Make Room for

Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment

Robert J Muir MASc PEng

Manager Stormwater City of Markham

Woodbine

Flood Constraints in the ROW (August 19 2005)

2

Woodbine

ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16 2017)

3

The Solution (After)

bull 30 year program

bull $234 M cost

4

The Solution (During)

5

Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging

6

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling

book summarizes decades of

research into thinking ndash how we

frame and solve problems and the

heuristic biases can cloud effective

thinking

7

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Woodbine

Flood Constraints in the ROW (August 19 2005)

2

Woodbine

ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16 2017)

3

The Solution (After)

bull 30 year program

bull $234 M cost

4

The Solution (During)

5

Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging

6

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling

book summarizes decades of

research into thinking ndash how we

frame and solve problems and the

heuristic biases can cloud effective

thinking

7

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Woodbine

ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16 2017)

3

The Solution (After)

bull 30 year program

bull $234 M cost

4

The Solution (During)

5

Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging

6

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling

book summarizes decades of

research into thinking ndash how we

frame and solve problems and the

heuristic biases can cloud effective

thinking

7

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

The Solution (After)

bull 30 year program

bull $234 M cost

4

The Solution (During)

5

Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging

6

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling

book summarizes decades of

research into thinking ndash how we

frame and solve problems and the

heuristic biases can cloud effective

thinking

7

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

The Solution (During)

5

Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging

6

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling

book summarizes decades of

research into thinking ndash how we

frame and solve problems and the

heuristic biases can cloud effective

thinking

7

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging

6

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling

book summarizes decades of

research into thinking ndash how we

frame and solve problems and the

heuristic biases can cloud effective

thinking

7

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling

book summarizes decades of

research into thinking ndash how we

frame and solve problems and the

heuristic biases can cloud effective

thinking

7

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Thinking Fast and Slow

bull Fast

bull Errors due to

heuristic

biases or

ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in

problem

solving

8

bull Slow

bull Needed for

todayrsquos

complex

constrained

and conflicted

design

challenges

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Complex Constrained Crowded

9

BIOSWALE

BIKELANE

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

11

bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall

that would make sewers bigger come from

i) the insurance industry and

ii) some conservation authorities

bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather

Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada

stated

ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40

years are now happening once every 6 years

in some regions in the countryrdquo

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms

12

bull Main author from the University

of Western directed me to the

Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction (ICLR) for the data

bull ICLR director shared future

climate predictions research

papers and asked for patience

to find the Engineering Climate

Dataset data referenced in the

report (past data)

bull Months went by hellip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

The real data hellip on YouTube

13

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data

14wwwcityfloodmapcom

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities

Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling

the Weather Storyrdquo Increase

(but no data)

Environment Canada Data

Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically

significant over 6 to 24 hrs)

15

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design

Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer

sizes

16

Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

wwwcityfloodmapcom

Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too

bull Stations with

45+ years of

record and

recent data

bull More rain

decreases

than rain

increases

bull S Ont twice

as many

significant

decreases

17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml

Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip

Few statistically significant increases in Canada

bull 5-minute rainfall

maxima have

significant

increases at only

27 of climate

stations

bull 93 of trends are

insignificant or lsquono

datarsquo

bull A whole lotta

nothinrsquo goinrsquo on

18

SignificantlyDown 3

SignificantlyUp 427

19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml

19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml

Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario

bull Lower observed

annual maximums

cause IDF values to

decrease

bull Toronto City ldquoBloor

Streetrdquo trends lower

for all durations amp

all return periods

bull Design standard

lsquooldrsquo IDF is

conservative

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml

wwwcityfloodmapcom

SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records

20

Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)

Return Period (Years)

Intensity (mmhr) Change

1990 2007 1990 - 2007

2 1139 1092 -41

10 1896 1801 -50

25 2277 2158 -52

100 284 2685 -55

Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing

bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other

infographics

21

bull Data facts from ECCC

ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)

ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)

ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)

ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)

ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)

httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets

bull Capacity upgrades up to

400 required to meet

todayrsquos 100 year level or

service Its big enough and

has a safety fact because

intensities have been

decreasing

Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)

New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)

Are Sewers Big Enough YES

But what about Climate

ChangeIts not big enough

Only

Milli Vanilli

ldquoBlame It

On The

Rainrdquo

Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up

24

Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo

bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key

driver to growing costs

after 2008

httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf

Only

Milli Vanilli

ldquoBlame It

On The

Rainrdquo

Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up

24

Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo

bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key

driver to growing costs

after 2008

httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf

Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up

24

Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo

bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key

driver to growing costs

after 2008

httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf

Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo

bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key

driver to growing costs

after 2008

httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf

Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip

The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in

Flood Management Infrastructure

Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo

Look at some data we must

$400 M yrgt $1 B yr

CatIQData

ldquovarious company surveysrdquo

Flood water storm perils hellip

2013 is a rarelarge event

2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo

Water damage is decreasing

340 of Total Losses317

ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in

Flood Management Infrastructure

Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo

Look at some data we must

$400 M yrgt $1 B yr

CatIQData

ldquovarious company surveysrdquo

Flood water storm perils hellip

2013 is a rarelarge event

2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo

Water damage is decreasing

340 of Total Losses317

ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo

Look at some data we must

$400 M yrgt $1 B yr

CatIQData

ldquovarious company surveysrdquo

Flood water storm perils hellip

2013 is a rarelarge event

2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo

Water damage is decreasing

340 of Total Losses317

ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

Look at some data we must

$400 M yrgt $1 B yr

CatIQData

ldquovarious company surveysrdquo

Flood water storm perils hellip

2013 is a rarelarge event

2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo

Water damage is decreasing

340 of Total Losses317

ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

Flood water storm perils hellip

2013 is a rarelarge event

2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo

Water damage is decreasing

340 of Total Losses317

ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

Water damage is decreasing

340 of Total Losses317

ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast

35

People are not accustomed to thinking hard

and are often content to trust a plausible

judgment that comes to mind

Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review

93 (5) December 2003 p 1450

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow

36

bull Weather events that happened

every 40 years happening every

6 years

bull Water damage a key driver to

increasing insured losses

bull New normal

bull Data shows lack of detectable

trend signal in rainfall

intensities

bull Data shows water damage only

13 of losses and is a

decreasing percentage

bull Same old extremes

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39

What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40

What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements

httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41

But we have unprecedented flood events Rob

42

Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented

httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43

Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented

httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43

2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented

44

2017 1973

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml

74

742

744

746

748

75

752

754

756

758

1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Mo

nth

ly L

eve

l (m

)

Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels

May Average

August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf

May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record

45

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml

74

742

744

746

748

75

752

754

756

758

1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Mo

nth

ly L

eve

l (m

)

Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels

May Average

August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf

May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record

45

We have always had flooding

Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46

What about adding green infrastructure

like bioswales into the right of way

47

48

Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip

49

Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance

50

But creek baseflows have been going up for decades

Baseflows Increasing for 50 years

BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years

51

Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate

bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo

httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf

What about adding green infrastructure

like bioswales into the right of way

47

48

Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip

49

Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance

50

But creek baseflows have been going up for decades

Baseflows Increasing for 50 years

BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years

51

Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate

bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo

httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf

48

Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip

49

Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance

50

But creek baseflows have been going up for decades

Baseflows Increasing for 50 years

BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years

51

Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate

bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo

httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf

49

Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance

50

But creek baseflows have been going up for decades

Baseflows Increasing for 50 years

BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years

51

Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate

bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo

httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf

50

But creek baseflows have been going up for decades

Baseflows Increasing for 50 years

BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years

51

Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate

bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo

httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf

51

Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate

bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo

httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf

52

ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo

Green infrastructure saves money

Then Why Say That

53

Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml

No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities

53

Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas

httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml

No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities

54

What about here in the GTA

55

City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell

httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf

Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml

55

City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell

httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf

Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml

56

Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)

Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized

technol-ogies

Grey Central Green Distributed

Flood Control Program - Markham

01

1

10

100

1000

10000

Standards DownspoutPrgm

BackwaterValve Pgm

SanSewerUpgrades

Stm SewerUpgrades

Green InfrRetrofit

Co

st (

$M

)

lt $01 M

Flood Control Program - Markham

01

1

10

100

1000

10000

Standards DownspoutPrgm

BackwaterValve Pgm

SanSewerUpgrades

Stm SewerUpgrades

Green InfrRetrofit

lt $01 M

GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured

= 55 Total

GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured

= 03 Total

Best Practices

No RegretsPolicies amp Programs

High ROI

Approved Program $ 263 M

$219 Bfor

25 ofcity

Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure

improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do

bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you

bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is

Questions

Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca

Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes

Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca

OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018

Flood Control Program - Markham

01

1

10

100

1000

10000

Standards DownspoutPrgm

BackwaterValve Pgm

SanSewerUpgrades

Stm SewerUpgrades

Green InfrRetrofit

Co

st (

$M

)

lt $01 M

Flood Control Program - Markham

01

1

10

100

1000

10000

Standards DownspoutPrgm

BackwaterValve Pgm

SanSewerUpgrades

Stm SewerUpgrades

Green InfrRetrofit

lt $01 M

GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured

= 55 Total

GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured

= 03 Total

Best Practices

No RegretsPolicies amp Programs

High ROI

Approved Program $ 263 M

$219 Bfor

25 ofcity

Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure

improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do

bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you

bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is

Questions

Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca

Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes

Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca

OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018

Flood Control Program - Markham

01

1

10

100

1000

10000

Standards DownspoutPrgm

BackwaterValve Pgm

SanSewerUpgrades

Stm SewerUpgrades

Green InfrRetrofit

lt $01 M

GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured

= 55 Total

GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured

= 03 Total

Best Practices

No RegretsPolicies amp Programs

High ROI

Approved Program $ 263 M

$219 Bfor

25 ofcity

Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure

improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do

bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you

bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is

Questions

Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca

Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes

Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca

OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018

Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure

improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do

bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you

bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is

Questions

Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca

Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes

Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca

OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018

Questions

Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca

Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes

Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca

OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018