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The Transition of ChildbearingPatterns from the Cohort Perspective
in Relation to Family PolicyComparison of the Czech Republic and Slovakia
13th LPR annual seminar, Madrid 29 September 2016
Jiřina Kocourková1, Anna Šťastná1, Branislav Šprocha2,
1Departement of Demography and Geodemography, Charles University in Prague2INFOSTAT – Demographic Research Centre, Bratislava
KATEDRA DEMOGRAFIE A GEODEMOGRAFIEPřírodovědecká fakulta
Univerzita Karlova v PrazeTel: (+420) 221 951 418
E-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.natur.cuni.cz/demografie
The general aim of the study
• Compare the recent transition in childbearing patterns in the Czech Republic and Slovakia in relation to family policychanges
• Analysis of the postponement and recuperation of fertility with a special focus on dynamics of second order births and its spacing
Key research hypothesis:We hypothesize that the postponement of the second childbirth following the first childbirth negatively influences the second birth recuperation rate, and thus reduce the quantum of childbearing and contribute to persistent lowfertility.
2
Effects of parental leave policies on secondbirth rate – evidence from recent research
Recent empirical research on the impact of PL on fertility shows positive findings.
Aassve and Lappegard (2010) – introduction of cash-for-car benefit in Norvayincreased the risk of having second child
Gerber and Perelli-Haris (2012) – higher second birth risks was observed forwomen in Russia who returned to work after taking longer PL than those whotook shorter PL
Matysiak and Szalma (2014) – comparison of Hungary and Poland, well-paid anduniversal PL encourages progression to a second child, but leads to sustantialdelays in women´s entry into employment.
Hoem (1993) – prolongation of paid PL in Sweden since 1986 (speed premium) led to an increase in second and third-birth rates at shorter birth intervals
Sobotka et al. (2005), Prskawetz et al. (2008) – extension of PL in Austria wasfollowed by in increase in second birth rates at shorter birth intervals
3
Comparison of the Czech Republicand Slovakia
In our analysis we tried to capture all changes in PL scheme:
length
amount of benefit
Flexibility in use
work limitations when receiving benefits
limits as regars the use of childcare facilities
Research aim:
To investigate the effect of changes in PL scheme on the timing of the secondbirth and on the second birth rate
4
Preconditions for comparison ofCzech and Slovak Republics
• Identical family policies until separation in 1993
• The common „re-familisation trends“ since the 1990s –emphasis on the long parental leave and shortage ofchildcare facilities for children undre three.
• Similar developments in fertility - postponementtransition since the beginning of the 1990s in bothcountries
- a sharp drop in the TFR and a sharp rise in the mean age of mothers at first childbirth in the 1990s
5
6
Total fertility rate (TFR), tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility (adjTFRp) and mean age at first birth in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, 1950-2014
22,0
22,5
23,0
23,5
24,0
24,5
25,0
25,5
26,0
26,5
27,0
27,5
28,0
28,5
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
3,0
3,2
3,4
3,6
19
50
19
54
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
Year
s
Ch
ildre
n p
er w
om
an
Year
TFR - Czech Republic TFR - Slovakia
adjTFRp - Czech Republic adjTFRp - Slovakia
MAB1 - Czech Republic MAB1 - Slovakia
Trends in leave policies in summary
Maternity leave Czech Republic Slovakia
duration • since 1987 - 28 weeks (37 multiple births and lone mothers)
• 2008 - 28 weeks (37 weeks only if
multiple births)
• 2011 - 34 weeks (37 lone
mothers, 43 multiple births)
benefit • since 1987 - 90% of the individual net daily wage
• 1993-2016: 67-70% of daily
assessment base (max 1,171 EUR)
• 2004-2016: 55-65% of daily
assessment base (max 803 EUR)Parental leave Czech Republic Slovakia
duration since 1990 up to a child's 3rd birthday
• 1995 - allowance up to a child's 4th birthdayAmount ofbenefit
• 26% of the average wage (beginning of the
1990s), 15% in 2003 • around 26 % of the
average salary in the early
1990s
• 28% in 2002
• nearly 24% of the average
wage in 2015
• 2004 - increased by 40% (20% of the average
wage in 2004) and abolition of earnings limit
• 2007 - doubled (37% of the average wage)
• 2008 - three “speeds” of drawing up to 2nd,
3rd or 4th birthday of the child.
• 2012 - allowance until the child reached 24-48
months - free choice on the monthly amount
Data and methods
• Order-specific fertility data from the Czech Statistical Office, Statistical Office of Slovakia and Human Fertility Database
• parity-cohort method - to investigate changes in the spacing and quantum of second births among women who had their first child between 1992 and 2012.
• Focus on first parity cohorts - cohorts of women defined by the
year of giving birth to their 1st child
Indicators• Second-birth rates specified by duration since the previous births
• Duration-specific progression ratios to second birth for first parity
cohorts 1992-2011 separately for 2, 3, 5 and 10 years after the
birth of their 1st child
8
Duration-specific second-birth rates by year at first birth in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, first-birth parity cohorts 1992-2012
9
0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0,20
0,22
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Ch
ildre
n p
er w
om
an
Parity cohort (year of 1st birth)
Duration since 1st birth (in months):
0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0,20
0,22
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Ch
ildre
n p
er w
om
an
Parity cohort (year of 1st birth)
9-12 13-24 25-36 37-48
49-60 61-84 85-120
Czech Republic Slovakia
Duration-specific progression ratios to second birth in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, first-birth parity cohorts 1992-2011 (2, 3, 5 and 10 years since first birth)
10
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Pro
gres
sio
n r
atio
Parity cohort (year of first birth)
24 - CZ
36 - CZ
60 - CZ
120 - CZ
24 - SK
36 - SK
60 - SK
120 - SK
Duration since firstbirth
(in months)
Results
• From 2004 the Czech Republic outperformed Slovakia due to a significant increase in the amount of the parental benefitand since 2008 also in the increase in flexibility of PL
• Progression ratios to second birth largely depend on the fertility quantum in shorter birth intervals.
• An increase in second birth rates during the 3rd year (25-36 months) following the first birth was reflected in an increase in progression ratios in each subsequent birth interval in the Czech Republic.
• As there was no increase in second birth rates in shortintervals after the first birth in Slovakia, progression ratios to second birth showed steady slight decline.
11
Fertility recuperation - Recuperation index by age 40 by birth order in the Czech Republic and Slovakia for women born in 1966-1974 (benchmark cohort 1965)
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
Rec
up
erat
ion
ind
ex(%
)
Cohort
First
First
Czech Republic
Slovakia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
Rec
up
erat
ion
ind
ex(%
)
Cohort
Second
Second
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Conclusions relevant to family policy
Shortening of birth interval between the first and secondchild for Czech cohorts 2006 and younger coincided withthe significant increase in parental benefit and flexibility – we found the effect on tempo and quantum of fertility
• Suitably adjusted parental leave system can stimulatethe second childbirth until three years after the firstchildbirth and thus inhibit further postponement.
• As fertility rate increasingly depends on recuperationrate of delayed second births, we confirmed that in theCzech Republic the recent PL policies have become theimportant part of state support to families and probablycontributed to the realization of fertility plans as regardsthe second child.
13
