The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq by Kenneth M. PollackReview by: Eliot A. CohenForeign Affairs, Vol. 81, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 2002), pp. 187-188Published by: Council on Foreign RelationsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20033370 .

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Recent Books

banks own explanations suggest, even though it also urges the ECB to raise

modestly its self-imposed inflation ceiling of two percent. And it finds that national fiscal policy in Europe has very little impact on aggregate demand or inflation and thus has become an ineffective in strument for demand management. The last conclusion, however, is based on analysis of the United Kingdom and pre unified Germany, not all of Europe.

Lending Credibility. The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition. BY RANDALL W. STONE.

Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002, 286 pp. $45.oo (paper, $19.95).

The IMF has come under heavy criticism in recent years for its inability to prevent financial crises and promote effective economic reforms. In a meticulous analysis, political scientist Stone addresses the role of the IMF in former communist countries making the transition to market economies. He sets out a game-theoretic framework involving national governments, the IMF, and international investors. This frame

work is closely argued but accessible and produces some surprising solutions. The model's predictions are generally born out by statistical tests. Fascinating and well argued case studies of the interactions between the IMF and national officials are provided for Bulgaria, Poland, Russia, and Ukraine. A main finding is that coun tries especially important to the United States-such as Russia and Ukraine violate IMF conditions more often but regain access to credit more quickly than do other countries; as a result, they have experienced worse economic performance. In other words, the IMF iS more credible, hence more effective, when the United

States is less engaged. It is a fine example of modern social science, although one can criticize it for exploring only monetary variables as measures of performance. Thus the study invites extension both to other variables and to other countries.

Military; Scientific, and Technological

ELIOT A. COHEN

The Threatening Storm: The Casefor Invading Iraq. BY KENNETH M. POLLACK. New York: Random House, 2002, 384 pp. $25.95.

The instant book has a bad name, and no doubt some critics will view this work

written before a war, not in its immediate aftermath-with grave suspicion. It is nonetheless exceptionally thoughtful. If any book can shape the current thinking on Iraq, this one will assuredly be it. The author made his reputation as a young CIA analyst who predicted Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. He has since worked in think tanks and on the National Security

Council and has long been a prominent voice in this debate. He walks his reader through a brief history of the Ba'athist Iraqi state, the Gulf War, and the tortured history of Iraq's relations with the world since 1991. He examines the options for dealing with Saddam Hussein and boils them down to two: deterrence or invasion.

The former, he argues, is the riskier course, because the Iraqi dictator has consistently flouted the rules of rational calculation beloved by political scientists. Pollack is sober about the dangers, costs, and implications of invasion but ends by

F O R E I G N A F FA I R S lNovember/December 2002 [187]

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concluding that it is the best option. This well-written work will no doubt attract much controversy. But it will be indispensable, even for those who disagree with its conclusions.

You've Got Dissent: Chinese Dissident Use of the Internet and Beijings Counter Strategies. BY MICHAEL CHASE AND

JAMES MULVENON. Santa Monica:

Rand, 2002,114 pp. $20.00 (paper). This fascinating monograph by two analysts-one of whom, Mulvenon, is

widely regarded as a top expert on the People's Liberation Army-describes the cyberwar raging between China's

Communist Party and its opponents. The tale will disappoint those who believed that the Internet age would sweep away tyranny and repression. It turns out that a variety of the party's techniques-from hacking to brute intimidation, updated forms of censorship to manipulation of corporate greed-work remarkably well even against so clever and persistent an underground movement as the Falun Gong. The authors conclude, however, that the party's approach will work only in the short-to-medium term. As survivors of the Internet boom know, moderation in one's estimates of the power of informa tion technology may prove the soundest point of view.

Balkan Battlegrounds: A Military History of the Yugoslav Conflict, 1990-1995. BY THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE

AGENCY. Washington: CIA Office of Public Affairs, 2002, 501 pp. $188.oo.

The historian of recent wars is often at a loss for material-often just a patchwork of newspaper reports, firsthand accounts by eyewitnesses, and the memoirs of

politicians and soldiers whose concern for their reputations may outweigh their obligations to history. In contrast, this massive volume is a wonderful resource for scholars and students alike. To take but one example, its account of Slovenia's successful struggle against the far larger

Yugoslav National Army is a remarkable look at how a tiny country combined old techniques of territorial warfare with a distinctly modern sense of media rela tions. The work is based exclusively on unclassified sources, although the analysts clearly had access to much more. Some readers will be put off by the array of tables, elaborate chronology, and massive footnotes. But many more will be grateful for the authors' meticulousness and the thick wad of excellent maps that accom panies this volume. This work is a superb contribution to contemporary strategic studies and will prove a boon to students in universities and war colleges alike. Three cheers for the authors-and for whoever in the government had the good sense to support this publication.

The Liberty Incident: The 1967 Israeli Attack on the U S. Navy Spy Ship. BY A. JAY CRISTOL. Washington:

Brassey's, 2002, 294 pp. $27.50.

This is the definitive book on the Israeli attack during the Six-Day War on an

American spy ship, a horrible accident that killed 34 Americans and left many

more wounded. For many years, the inci dent has been the subject of writings that range from the doggedly investigative to the frankly antisemitic. This meticulous

work belongs to the former category, a superb account by a federal judge (with a doctorate to boot) who has served for

many years as a U.S. naval aviator and a

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