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Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th , 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

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Page 1: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The Grind ContinuesPinal Partnership

December 14th, 2012

Presented By:Elliott D. Pollack

CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Page 2: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Economic Conditions

Page 3: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The economy we wanted…

Page 4: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

What we got…

Page 5: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

It is only because conditions have been

so poor for so long that we feel this

mediocre recovery is OK.

Page 6: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

NATIONAL ECONOMY –

Continued subpar growth. But, recovery should continue. (unless the Federal Gov’t does something stupid…)

Page 7: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Speaking of stupid…

Page 8: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

FISCAL CLIFF

2013

Page 9: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Speaking of stupid…

Page 10: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

FISCAL CLIFF• January 2, 2013:

• Bush-era tax cuts expire.o $3.3 trillion over 10 years

o $330 billion in 2013• Fiscal tightening measures agreed to

last year kick in… o $1.2 trillion in cuts over 9 years

o $500 billion in defense($55 billion in 2013)

Page 11: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

FISCAL CLIFF

• Causes great uncertainty.• Cost of non-resolution would be a

recession in 2013 (CBO).• So, most likely some type of resolution

will occur in early 2013.

Page 12: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCare

Summed up in one sentence by:Barbara Bellar

(Candidate for Illinois State Senate)

Page 13: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

“We are going to be gifted with a health care plan we are forced to purchase, and fined if we don’t…

Page 14: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…which reportedly covers at least 10 million more people, without adding a

single new doctor, but provides for 16,000 new IRS agents…

Page 15: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…written by a committee whose chairman says he doesn’t

understand it…

Page 16: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…passed by a congress that didn’t read it, but exempted

themselves from it…

Page 17: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…signed by a president (who smokes)…

Page 18: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…with funding administered by a treasury chief

(who didn’t pay his taxes)…

Page 19: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…for which we will be taxed for four years before any benefits take affect…

Page 20: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…by the government which has already bankrupted social security

and Medicare…

Page 21: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

…all to be overseen by a surgeon general (who is obese),

and financed by a country that’s broke.”

Page 22: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCareSummed up in One Sentence

What could possibly go wrong?

Page 23: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ObamaCare

Seriously, the issues are:

• Uncertainty over costs• Uncertainty over implementation

Page 24: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

United States Real Gross Domestic Product* Annual Growth 1970 - 2013**

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis & Blue Chip Economic Indicators

0.2%

3.4%

5.3%

5.8%

-0.6%-0.2%

5.4%

4.6%

5.6%

3.1%

-0.3%

2.5%

-1.9%

4.5%

7.2%

4.1%

3.5%3.2%

4.1%

3.6%

1.9%

-0.2%

3.4%2.9%

4.1%

2.5%

3.7%

4.5%4.4%4.8%

4.1%

1.1%1.8%

2.5%

3.5%3.1%

2.7%

1.9%

-0.3%

-3.5%

3.0%2.5%

2.2%2.0%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

* Based on chained 2005 dollars.

** 2012 - 2013 are forecasts from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, November 2012Recession Periods

Page 25: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

At least we’re growing!

And growth should continue,

BUT…

Page 26: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

…growth will remain weak because of the following:

• Consumer spending modest, but up (Additional jobs and hours worked).

• Business spending up • Excess industrial capacity.• Continued housing recovery in 2013. Large

percent gain. Small numerical gain.• Limited commercial construction.• Continued pressure on state

and local government.• Limited policy options on part of

Federal government.

Page 27: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Consumers

Page 28: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Consumer debt has declined by $1.7 trillion over the last 4 years.

Page 29: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Financial Obligation Ratio**1980 – 2012*

Source: Federal Reserve

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

1980 Q

1

1981 Q

2

1982 Q

3

1983 Q

4

1985 Q

1

1986 Q

2

1987 Q

3

1988 Q

4

1990 Q

1

1991 Q

2

1992 Q

3

1993 Q

4

1995 Q

1

1996 Q

2

1997 Q

3

1998 Q

4

2000 Q

1

2001 Q

2

2002 Q

3

2003 Q

4

2005 Q

1

2006 Q

2

2007 Q

3

2008 Q

4

2010 Q

1

2011 Q

2

*Data through second quarter 2012**Ratio of mortgage and consumer debt (including auto, rent and tax payments) to disposable income.

Recession Periods

Page 30: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Consumer Credit OutstandingPercent Change Year Ago

1970 – 2012* Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan-

70

Jan-

71

Jan-

72

Jan-

73

Jan-

74

Jan-

75

Jan-

76

Jan-

77

Jan-

78

Jan-

79

Jan-

80

Jan-

81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

*Data through October 2012

Recession Periods

Page 31: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

US New Job Data Change from Prior Month (S/A)June 2010 – November 2012

Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics

-167

-58 -51-27

220

121120110

220246251

5484 96 85

202

112

157

223

275259

143

6887

45

181192

132138

(250)

(200)

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

(000’s)

Page 32: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Hours WorkedPercent Change from Year Ago

1976 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Recession Periods

*Data through third quarter 2012

Page 33: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Consumer Confidence1978 – 2012*

Source: The Dismal Scientist

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

*Data through November 2012

Recession Periods

Normal NormalNormal New Normal?

Approval of medical marijuana...

Page 34: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Number of Monthly Residential RefinancesGreater Phoenix

Source: CoreLogic

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

4,019 4,480

5,194 5,398 5,200 5,052

6,263

7,516 8,101

9,915 10,604

11,518

Page 35: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Refinancing will free up money…

Page 36: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

WEALTH EFFECT

Housing prices are up.

Stock market is up from a year ago.

Page 37: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Jobs are being created at a slow rate.

Those that have jobs are spending a little more but will remain cautious.

Unemployment to remain high, but should trend lower.

Wealth levels are improving.

Will the additional uncertainty translate into reduced consumer spending?

Consumer Summary:

Page 38: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Business

Page 39: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Business debt has declined by $2.9 trillion over the last 4 years.

Page 40: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Corporate Profit (Billions of Dollars, SA)

1975-2012*Source: BEA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

*Data through third quarter 2012

Recession Periods

Page 41: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Business Spending on EquipmentPercent Change from Prior Quarter

2005 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Recession Periods

*Data through third quarter 2012

Page 42: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Business Spending on Plant Percent Change from Prior Quarter

2005 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Recession Periods

*Data through third quarter 2012

Page 43: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Capacity Utilization Rate1970 – 2012*

Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

65

70

75

80

85

90

Jan-

70

Jan-

71

Jan-

72

Jan-

73

Jan-

74

Jan-

75

Jan-

76

Jan-

77

Jan-

78

Jan-

79

Jan-

80

Jan-

81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

*Data through October 2012

Recession Periods

This is when investment occurs.

Page 44: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Businesses are in better shape.

Spending on equipment to continue to grow.

Spending on plant will lag until capacity utilization goes higher…getting close.

Employment to continue to grow.

Business Summary:

Page 45: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Government

Page 46: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Speaking of stupid…

Page 47: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Gross Government debt has INCREASED by $5.8 trillion

over the last 4 years.

Page 48: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Balanced Budget

We are borrowing $0.34 of every dollar we spend and can’t collect

enough in taxes to make it up.

Page 49: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Balanced Budget

RECEIPTS $ trilIndividual income taxes 1.165

Corporate income taxes 0.237

Social insurance & medicare taxes 0.775

Unemployment insurance 0.066

Other 0.226

TOTAL $2.469

Page 50: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Balanced Budget

EXPENDITURES $ trilDiscretionary (security – military, defence, homeland security, FBI, CIA and non-security – departments of education, energy, etc.)

1.319

Mandatory (Programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, SS, TARP) 2.252

Interest on debt 0.225

TOTAL $3.796

Page 51: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Balanced Budget

EXPENDITURES $3.796 trillionRECEIPTS $2.469 trillion= DEFICIT $1.327 trillion

Discretionary Expenditures = $1.319 trillion

Page 52: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

So, even if we completely shut down government, including the military, we still wouldn’t have a

balanced budget.

Balanced Budget

Page 53: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Balanced Budget

The federal debt scheduled to be:

$16.2 trillion in 2013$25.9 trillion in 2022

Source: U.S. Treasury; FY 2013 U.S. Budget

Page 54: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company ---- Obama Administration proposed budget, Aug. 2012

U.S. Gross National Debt ($tril)Source: U.S. Treasury; FY 2013 U.S. Budget

Page 55: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

What is the

tipping point?

Page 56: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

It WILL happen but no one can tell when.

Page 57: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

You won’t know what

you’re gettinguntil it’s

TOO LATE.

Page 58: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

What does the government need to do?

First, admit there is a problem

Second, deal with the problem.

It will be painful and there is no easy way out.

Page 59: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

What does the government need to do?

• Need significant cuts in the rate of increase for long term fiscal health.

• Modest tax increases designed not to hurt incentives.

• But, significant cuts or tax increases will hurt the economy next year.

• Therefore, they need to phase it in!!!

Page 60: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

State & local under pressure.

But, more revenues available in FY2013.

Federal spending up but more slowly.

Need to avoid a self imposed “cliff.”

Government Summary:

Page 61: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Question:Can Europe cause a recession in the U.S.?

Page 62: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Conclusion:

Europe unlikely to cause any significant problems for U.S.

Page 63: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

NATIONAL SUMMARY Consumers still restructuring Confidence low, but spending will

continue to grow Business in good shape but not

confident because of: Low capacity utilization Cost of Obama Care Potential for Fiscal Cliff

Federal government, no leadership whatsoever.

CommandButton1

Page 64: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ARIZONA

HappyBirthday!!

CommandButton1

Page 65: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Arizona & US Move Together (Non-farm Emp. Percent Change 1980 – October 2012)

-9%

-7%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

U.S. Arizona Recession Periods

Page 66: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

9

4

15

2

10

3

7

Job Growth 2006

11

15

6

22

8

Source: US BLS

13

Jobs growing

Jobs declining

Top 10

Hawaii

Alaska

Page 67: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

5

49

24

3645

4

30

8

25

46

50

44

1

3

Alaska 2

2034

Job Growth 2009Source: US BLS

Jobs growing

Jobs declining

Top 10

Hawaii

6

7

910

Page 68: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

23

25

29 6

3

44

22

34

38

1

2

Alaska 17

5010

Jobs growing

Jobs decliningTop 10

Hawaii

30

4

12

9

8

Job Growth 2011Source: US BLS

5

7

Page 69: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

5

6

30

9 10

3

47

33

35

12

1

4

Alaska 43 29

Jobs growing

Jobs decliningTop 10

Hawaii

16

11

2

8

Job Growth 2012YTD October 2012 vs YTD October 2011

Source: US BLS

507

Page 70: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

There is little that isn’t transitory…

…It is mostly cyclical

Page 71: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

How did AZ go from 2nd to 49th? Financial meltdown. Credit crunch/freeze. Overextended consumer. Excess single family inventory. Housing prices decline.

Loss of wealth including home equity. Can’t sell homes or retire. Homebuilding and home prices crash. Population inflows weaken in AZ. Household size increases. Household formations decline.

Excess commercial construction

“Growth” job losses. All sector job loses.

Page 72: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

How does AZ go from 49th to 2nd? Overall US economic recovery improves. Stock market improves. Credit frees up. Consumers more confident. People start to move to AZ again, slowly. Investors help absorb excess housing.

Excess housing absorbed Housing prices rise. Construction kicks in. Construction job gains.

All sector job gains. More people move to AZ.

Page 73: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

But the local recovery will be slow because…

Slow national recovery Consumers still restructuring Low levels of confidence Winding down of defense sector Population flows slow:

40% of U.S. households are not mortgage creditworthy.

More than 39% in Arizona and 22% nationally have no equity in their homes.

CommandButton1

Page 74: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Year Rank

2000 5

2001 10

2002 12

2003 4

2004 2

2005 2

2006 2

2007 16

2008 46

2009 49

2010 49

2011 23

2012* 6

Year Rank

1991 20

1992 21

1993 5

1994 2

1995 2

1996 2

1997 2

1998 1

1999 2

Arizona Employment GrowthSource: Arizona State University, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

*YTD October 2012 vs YTD October 2011

Page 75: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Arizona Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2013**

Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration

-2.3%

4.1%

6.7%

10.6%9.4%

3.5%

2.7%

-1.1%

4.7%

9.7%8.2%

4.6%3.6%

2.4%

2.5%

2.0%

0.5%

1.7%

4.4%

6.8%6.0%5.5%

4.9%4.5%

4.3%3.7%

1.0%

0.1%

1.4%

3.7%

5.4% 5.0%

1.5%

-2.1%

-7.3%

-1.9%

1.0%2.0%

3.0%

-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.

** 2012 & 2013 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

Recession Periods

Page 76: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

FISCAL CLIFF

Page 77: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Speaking of stupid…

Page 78: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

What will be the impact of defense cutbacks in Arizona?

Page 79: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Projected Net Job Growth:2012 = 48,000 2013 = 73,6002014 = 88,500

FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA?

Page 80: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

If the mandated spending cuts take place, total loss to Arizona is projected at:

45,000 to 50,000 jobs.

(This does not take into account any slowdown caused by tax increases.)

We will still grow, but very slowly.

FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA?

Page 81: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Greater Phoenix Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2013**

Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration

-3.7%

4.9%

8.7%

13.3%

10.4%

3.7%

3.0%

-0.1%

5.8%

11.2%9.3%

4.8%3.5%

5.9%

2.5%

2.2%

-0.3%

1.1%

4.9%

6.6%7.2%7.3%

5.4%5.4%

4.6%3.5%

1.2%

-0.1%

1.5%

3.9%

6.2%5.4%

1.6%

-2.5%

-7.9%

-1.9%

1.4%2.0%

3.0%

-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.

** 2012 & 2013 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

Recession Periods

Page 82: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Greater Phoenix Employment* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Sectors in DeclineNet

Change

Other Services -1,100

Information -500

*Oct. 2012/ Oct. 2011

Sectors ImprovingNet

Change

Professional & Bus Services 13,100

Education & Health Services 6,700

Trade, Transp, Utilities 7,900

Financial Activities 4,400

Government 4,200

Construction 3,200

Leisure & Hospitality 1,700

Manufacturing 1,200

Mining 100

Page 83: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Greater Phoenix- Jobs Finally in the Black

Over last 12 months: 40,800 12 months before that: 34,200

12 months before that: 1,30012 months before that:

(149,700)12 months before that:

(83,300) * As of October 2012

Page 84: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Greater Phoenix JobsSource: BLS

Jobs lost Peak to Trough:302,500

(Dec-07) (Jul-10)

Jobs gained Trough to Current:133,500

(Jul-10) (Oct-12)

***We are 44% of the way back****Based on not seasonally adjusted monthly data

Page 85: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Employment Levels: Greater Phoenix back to Peak in 2015?

Source: ADOC

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0Recession Periods

Peak

Page 86: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Greater Phoenix Non-Farm Employment Gains

3 Years After Recession EndSource: BLS

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1961 1970 1975 1982 1991 2001 2009

Page 87: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Year Rank # MSA’s

2000 9 25

2001 7 26

2002 5 25

2003 3 25

2004 3 25

2005 1 26

2006 1 27

2007 9 28

2008 24 28

2009 24 25

2010 24 24

2011 12 24

2012* 3 25

Year Rank # MSA’s

1991 4 19

1992 4 19

1993 2 19

1994 1 19

1995 1 20

1996 1 21

1997 1 22

1998 1 23

1999 3 24

Phoenix-Mesa Employment Growth(Ranking among all metro areas greater than 1,000,000)

Source: Arizona State University, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

*Year-to-date, October 2012

Page 88: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Maricopa County PopulationSource: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Economic Security; University of Arizona Forecasting Project

Year Population1950 331,7701960 663,5101970 971,2281980 1,509,1751990 2,122,1012000 3,072,1492010 3,817,1172020(forecast) 4,831,137

Page 89: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Greater Phoenix EmploymentSource: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Administration; University of Arizona Forecasting Project

YEAR EMPLOYMENT

1950 74,400

1960 181,700

1970 327,200

1980 636,200

1990 1,013,300

2000 1,578,400

2010 1,686,800

2020 2,312,700

Page 90: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

0%

2%

4%

6%

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

2.1%

3.7%

4.2%

4.7%

3.9%

3.3%

3.0%

3.1%

4.3%

5.1%

4.2%4.4%

2.9%

2.5%

1.3%

2.4%

2.8%

3.5%

4.3%

4.6%

4.2%4.2%

3.8%

4.3%4.3%

2.6%

2.7%3.1%

3.6%3.8%

3.7%

3.0%

1.9%

0.5%

0.3%

0.6%

1.1%

1.8%

Greater Phoenix Population Annual Percent Change 1976–2013*

Source: Arizona State University & Department of Commerce, Research Administration

.

* 2012 & 2013 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

Recession Periods

Page 91: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

School Enrollment Growth2001-2012

Source: Arizona Department of Education

2.8%3.2%

6.1%

3.5%

3.1%

4.9%

2.4% 2.5%

0.7%

-0.7%

0.4%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

N/A

*Collection methodology changed in 2009, rendering 2009/2008 comparisons null.

Page 92: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Pinal County

Page 93: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Pinal County Employment Annual Percent Change 1975–2012*

Source: Workforce AZ

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-0.1%-1.6%

-2.9%

-1.3%

7.8%

-2.8%

6.2%

-7.0%

-3.0%

3.3%

1.5%

11.0%

6.0%

0.7%

2.6%

-0.4%

2.0%

1.3%

7.4%

9.4%

3.9%4.6%

1.3%

-3.1%

-1.9%-1.2%

2.2%2.7%3.1%

4.5%

5.8%

7.5%8.6%

3.7%

-4.9%

0.1%

1.8%1.4%

*Data through October 2012

Recession Periods

Page 94: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Pinal County Employment* Source: Workforce AZ

Sectors in Decline

Information -5.9%

Financial Activities -5.5%

Manufacturing -0.8%

Sectors in Growing

Prof. & Business Services 7.6%

Leisure & Hospitality 6.3%

Education & Health Services 4.3%

Government 3.9%

Mining & Construction 0.9%

Trade, Transp., & Utilities 0.3%

*October 2012/October 2011

Page 95: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Pinal County Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago*

1999 – 2012**Source: Arizona Department of Revenue

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

*Data through September 2012**3-month moving average

Note: January 2010 and March 2010 retail sales are estimates.

Recession Periods

Page 96: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

0.81.0 1.3

1.8 1.51.9

3.4

5.5

8.7

9.6

5.5

4.2

1.91.3 0.9

0.60.8

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pinal County Single Family Permits1996–2012*

Source: Census Bureau

Recession Periods

*YTD September 2012

Page 97: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The real estate market we wanted…

Page 98: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The real estate marketwe got…

Page 99: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

It’s hard not to be optimistic about HOUSING

Page 100: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

US Total Vacant Housing Units1965-2012*

Source: US Census Bureau

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

*Data through 2012 Q3

Recession Periods

Longer term trend

(000)

Page 101: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

A dimmer switch…

Not a light switch…

Bad

Good

Bad

Not great OK

Good

Great

Mediocre

Terrible

Housing

Page 102: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

• Think of what the housing market is going through as the same as any manufacturer that finds themselves with excess inventory…

• Prices are cut until the excessis sold.

• Then prices rise.

Page 103: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Price gains are largely in distressed properties.

Page 104: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Total Single Family Units Occupied by Renters2000-2011

Greater PhoenixSource: American Community Survey

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

11.73% 12.41%11.60% 11.30%

11.75%11.75%

14.10%15.25%

16.37%18.08%

20.32%

21.83%

Page 105: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

U.S. Homeownership Rate1994-2012*

Source: Census Bureau

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

*Data through 2012 Q2

Recession Periods%

Page 106: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Percent of Homeownersby Market Status

Source: CoreLogic

Homeowners that could be in resale market: 57.6% (Free & clear or LTV less than 80%)

Homeowners not in resale market: 42.4% (Little or no equity)

Page 107: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Also, 40% of Households are not credit worthy.

Source: CoreLogic

Page 108: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Until this gets resolved locally and nationally,

the rate of population growth

will be anemic.

Page 109: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

This will limit the rate of growth in jobs.

Page 110: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

As housing prices go up, more and more people will be able to sell their homes because they aren’t underwater.

Page 111: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Household Formations

Lower during recessions (doubling up, living at home with mom & dad, etc)

Page 112: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Percent of 25-34 Year Olds Living With Parents vs. Homeownership Rate, Under 35 Years Old

U.S.: 1983 – 2011 Source: US Census Bureau

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

% L

ivin

g w

/ Pa

ren

ts

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

41%

42%

43%

44%

Ho

me

ow

ne

rsh

ip R

ate

% Living w/ parents Homeownership Rate

Page 113: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

In a weak economy, population growth fails to

translate into household growth, but when the economy begins to

strengthen, there is pent-up demand for housing.

Source: Linneman Letter

Page 114: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

As new housing and housing prices recover, the entire economy is helped.

Page 115: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

There are still issues…

• Population flows• Interest rates

Page 116: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

So, we are on the right track.

Page 117: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

But, we are recovering, we are not recovered.

Page 118: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

OFFICE

More lights on?

Page 119: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

As of third quarter 2012, there are 300,975 square feet

of office space under construction.

Source: CBRE

Page 120: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Under any reasonable employment growth scenario,

we believe it will be 2016 before any significant office construction occurs

(although some sub-markets will be sooner).

Page 121: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

INDUSTRIAL

Slowly filling up?

Page 122: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

As of third quarter 2012, there are 5.4 million square feet

of industrial space under construction.

Source: CBRE

Page 123: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

RETAIL

Page 124: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

As of third quarter 2012, there are 0.9 million square feet

of retail space under construction.

Source: CBRE

Page 125: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

CONCLUSIONS:How will it all turn out?

Page 126: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The Result….

Page 127: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The economy is improving in both absolute and

relative terms.

Page 128: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Is the Glass Still Half Full?

Page 129: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Growth is slow by historic standards because the U.S. economyis slow and incentives are perverse.

Page 130: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The economy should gain some momentum

(unless the Federal government does something stupid)

Page 131: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Speaking of Stupid…

Page 132: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

There is a BOOM

for Arizona out there

somewhere.

Page 133: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

But not in 2013.

Page 134: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ARIZONA– Slow but mildly accelerating recovery.

2013 will be better than 2012

2014 will be better than 2013

2015 should be a good year.

Page 135: Elliott D. Pollack & Company The Grind Continues Pinal Partnership December 14 th, 2012 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & Company

7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251

480-423-9200 P / 480-423-5942 F / www.arizonaeconomy.com / [email protected]

• Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis/Modeling

• Real Estate Market and Feasibility Studies

• Litigation Support

• Revenue Forecasting

• Keynote Speaking

• Public Finance and Policy Development

• Land Use Economics

• Economic Development