The risk assessment model SYNOPS and its approach in frame of a general indicator set for sustainable plant protection in Germany Volkmar Gutsche and Jörn

The risk assessment model SYNOPS and its approach in frame of a general indicator set for sustainable plant

protection in Germany

Volkmar Gutsche and Jörn Strassemeyer

JKI - Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants,Institute for Technology Assessment in Plant Protection

Stahnsdorfer Damm 81, D-14532 Kleinmachnowe-mail:

[email protected] or [email protected]

Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant

Protection

Background

German National Action Plan (NAP) on Sustainable Use of Plant Protection Products since 2004

German NAP has to be adopted according the EU - Directive establishing a framework for Community action to achieve a sustainable use of pesticides

First national stakeholder conference for NAP – adaption in June 2009 :

->The progress in reaching the targets of NAP has to be measured by a set of indicators

->The indicator set should include existing approaches as well as new definitions

->Compatibility to harmonised EU – indicators should be achieved

small working group is now preparing a first proposal for such indicator set


Protection

Models:- Risk assessment for earthworms by SYNOPS-model

Models:- Risk assessment for be by SYNOPS-model

Agricultural production

Agricultural income

Terrestrial biodiversity

SoilSoil organisms

Ground- and Surface waterWater organisms

Human healthConsumer Operator

Resident

Surveys (NEPTUN, farm network):-Application index per crop-Application area per pesticideSecondary data analysis of different sources- Infestation pressure

Data analysis and survey results:

- Hazard classification of pesticides for operators

- Number of pesticides and application area per hazard class

Monitoring:- Pollution of groundwater- Pollution of surface water

Monitoring:- Exceeds of MRL‘s (consumer)

Models:- Risk assessment for water organisms by SYNOPS-model

Models:- Risk assessment for the MRL-exceeds by VELS-model

- Risk assessment for operators by HAIR-submodel

Measurements:- Ratio of farmer’s partici-pation in training courses

- Ratio of farmer’s access to performances of advisory service

Measurements:- Number of participants in agri-environmental programmes

P R E S S U R E

S T A T E

(potential) I M P A C T

R E S P O N S E

Targets of national action plan

Draft of indicator set

Monitoring:- Birds in agricultural landscapes

- Specific butterflies- Damage on bees caused by pesticides


Protection

surface water

orchard

exposition pathways in SYNOPS

drainage

run-off

driftinterception

drift

Load, C(t) sPEC, lPECsoil

surface water

non target plants

surface

water

field margin

riskpotential

earthworm

daphniaalgeafish

bee


Protection

The model SYNOPS

Toxicity

Exposure calculatedRisk

more or less sophisticated sub-modelsExposition

Toxicity LC50 / NOEC of test organisms earthworm, bee, daphnia, fish, algae

Spray drift (Ganzelmeier Tables + FOCUS functions)Run-Off (Model developed by Lutz 1984, REXTOX, Drips)Drainage (meta-model based on MACRO)Erosion (USLE based model, comparable to FOCUS)

two mainstreams of model approach

Risk assessment for application patterns and GIS-aided regional risk analysis

Tracking risk trends on national level


Protection

Sales data on the annual volume of active ingredients from:

1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005 (serves as base line – years)

2006, 2007

2008 (in progress)

Compiling of a list of all relevant (registered) potential uses (indications)* and calculation of their application area in the corresponding year according to the procedure of Gutsche & Rossberg (OECD, 1999)

* Indication = use of a pesticide in a certain crop for a certain target (pest) with a registered dose rate to a registered application time/period and, if necessary, applying certain risk mitigation measurements like buffer zone to adjacent surface water courses etc.

= 7857 indicationsnumber of indications herbicides fungicides insecticides

base line 96-05 2131 2241 1429

2006 345 455 158

2007 391 501 206

Tracking risk trends - the database


Protection

1.) For each potential use (indication) SYNOPS calculates a set of 5 (earthworm, bee, daphnia, fish, algae) risk indices

SYNOPS runs under „worst case“ application conditions:

- The application site is adjacent to a ditch with depth of 0.3 m and width of 1.5 m

- 3 days after application a strong rainfall of 30 mm happens

- The application site has a slope of 3%

- The soil of the application site is loamy with organic carbon content of 1.5%

2.) Each indication gets a weight according to its estimated application area

Weighted mean values per year were calculated for herbicides, fungicides and insecticides separately

Additionally, weighted mean values of the 5 risk indices for the period 1996 - 2005 in total were calculated for herbicides, fungicides and insecticides. They form the base line.

All mean values per year were related to the values obtained for the base line (base line = 100%)

These relative indices for the different test organisms were summarised for the terrestrial and aquatic compartment:Relative risk terrestrial = (risk earthworm + risk bee) / 2 Relative risk aquatic = (risk daphnia + risk fish + risk algae) / 3

3.) Weighted aggregation of risk indices

Tracking risk trends - the SYNOPS processing


Protection

Tracking risk trends – results herbicides

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

terrestrial risk

aquatic risk

earthworm daphnia fish algae bees

base line 96-05 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2006 84% 147% 143% 36% 68%

2007 70% 89% 89% 36% 68%

5 6 7 8 9 10

earthworm

bees

daphnia

fish

algae

2007

2006

base line 96-05

0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1

SYNOPS relative risk index herbicides(average 1996-2000 = 100%)

SYNOPS absolute risk index herbicides


Protection

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

terrestrial risk

aquatic risk

5 6 7 8 9 10

earthworm

bees

daphnia

fish

algae

2007

2006

base line 96-05

0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1


base line 96-05 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2006 71% 42% 82% 114% 80%

2007 71% 61% 97% 114% 101%

Tracking risk trends – results fungicides

SYNOPS relative risk index fungicides(average 1996-2000 = 100%)

SYNOPS absolute risk index fungicides


Protection

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

225%

250%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

terrestrial risk

aquatic risk

5 6 7 8 9 10

earthworm

bees

daphnia

fish

algae

2007

2006

base line 96-05


base line 96-05 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2006 16% 57% 79% 61% 18%

2007 95% 16% 31% 22% 16%

Tracking risk trends – results insecticides

0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1

SYNOPS relative risk index insecticides(average 1996-2000 = 100%)

SYNOPS absolute risk index insecticides


Protection

fruit region Lake Constance

surface_waters_bodensee

area of pome fruit

surface water

orchard

GIS-based application of SYNOPS

SYNOPS calculates the risk potential of all orchards within the considered region.

regional approach– input data for all fields in the considered region

have to be available on field level– the calculated field based risk potentials are then

analysed or aggregated in the spatial dimension

geographical databases + GIS procedures

NEPTUN 2001

NEPTUN 2004

all applications

all applications

NEPTUN 2007all applications

<0.001

0.001 - 0.010

0.010 - 0.050

0.050 - 0.100

0.100 - 0.500

0.500- 1.000

>1.000

GIS based risk assessment with SYNOPS

Geographical Database, ATKIShigh resolution data set on land use and land cover

The average slope is calculated for each field using a digital elevation model (DGM-D).

Long-term precipitation and temperature (1971-2000) is derived from digital climate maps of the German Weather Service on monthly basis

The application strategies are distributed randomly according to a field based survey (NEPTUN)

Fruit crops are distributed randomly accoding to agricultural statistics on community level

PSM-database

SYNOPS

active ingredientdatabase

The main soil types are derived for each field a digital soil map (BÜK1000).

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Cso

il [m

g kg

-1]

0.000

0.004

0.008

0.012

0.016

0.020

Cwa

ter

[mg

l-1

]

NOECtt t

tCT

lPECNOEC

t

t-t365

NOEC

)(

maxspecies

acute LC

sPECETR

50

GIS

-dat

a

GIS-based risk analysisLake Constance

Minimal distance from the field to the edge of the surface water is derived with GIS procedures from ATKIS

field based

risk assessment

region Lake Constancerisk potential for daphnia (ETRdaphnia)

acute risk daphnia

0 - 0.0010.001 - 0.010.01 - 0.10.1 - 1.01.0 - 10.0

surface waters

95% 0.113

90% 0.056

75% Q3 0.018

50% Median 0.007

25% Q1 0.000

10% 0.000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

0 - 0

.001

0.00

1-0.

01

0.01

-0.1

0.1-

11-

10

ETRdaphnia

fre

qu

en

cy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Aggregated risk potentials based on the NEPTUN surveys in 2001, 2004 und 2007

aquatic risk potential 90. Percentile

NEPTUN 2001

NEPTUN 2004

all applications

all applications


<0.001

0.001 - 0.010

0.010 - 0.050

0.050 - 0.100

0.100 - 0.500

0.500- 1.000

>1.000

0.498

0.190

0.106

0.01

0.1

1

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

year

90th

Per

cent

ile o

f E

TR

aquaticfishalgaedaphnia

acute risk potential fraction of area with ETR>1

NEPTUN 2001

NEPTUN 2004

all applications

all applications


< 1 %

1 - 2 %

2 - 3 %

3 - 4 %

4 - 5 %

5 - 6 %

6 - 7 %

7- 8 %

8 - 9 %

9 - 10 %

10 -15 %

>15 %

Aggregated risk potentials based on the NEPTUN surveys in 2001, 2004 und 2007

aquatic risk potential 90. Percentile

influence of compliance to buffer zone

requirements

200720042001

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

aq

ua

tic

ris

k (

90

. P

erz

en

tile

)

Aquatic risk of all orchard regions

fruit growing regions (NEPTUN 2004)

Bodensee

Rheinebene

Neckartal / Franken

Rheinland-Pfalz

Niederelbe

Norddeutschland Ost

Havel / Spree / Oder

Elbe Mulde (Sachsen)

mitteld. Obstanbaugebiet

Orchard regions


Protection

Thank you for your attention!

Documents

The risk assessment model SYNOPS and its approach in frame of a general indicator set for sustainable plant protection in Germany Volkmar Gutsche and Jörn