THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS IN THE

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN GRAIN

SECTOR

Sergey Feofilov

UkrAgroConsult

Round Table, Black Sea Grain Conference - 2009

Kiev

Trends in the total agricultural output (1990 =

100%), %

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Agricultural enterprises All types farms Private sector

Ukraine: Animal and poultry inventories

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Th. h

eads

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ml.

head

s

Cattle Pigs Poultry

Ukraine: Rural population, Th persons, by January 1

  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total population 48240.9 47823.1 47442.1 47100.5 46749.2 46465.7

Rural population, including: 15950.2 15750.4 15551.2 15346.7 15127.1 14943.9

Men 7412.7 7329.7 7245.4 7154.1 7055 6973.9

Women 8537.5 8420.7 8305.8 8192.6 8072.1 7970

Able-bodied rural population, including: 8176.9 8210.3 8239.4 8226.2 8222.9 8210

Men 4318 4330.6 4353.1 4359.1 4374 4374.4

Women 3858.9 3879.7 3886.3 3867.1 3848.9 3835.6

Employed in agriculture n/a n/a 4105.7 3998.3 4005.5 3652.6

Structural changes in agricultural enterprises

July 2007 April 2008

Number of studied holdings 18 29

Total area of land in use, Ml ha 1.7 3.07

Average area within one holding, Th ha 94 106

Plans for land use expansion in 2008 50%

Land use expansion from July till December 2007 21%

Forecast average size in 2008, Th ha 143

Openness of information 72%

Commodity positionsprice, EUR/T

Previous customs tariff

WTO Commitments

Specific duty rate,

EUR/MT

Ad valorem equivalent of specific rate

Ad valorem

rate

0202000000 Beef, frozen: 575

0202309000 - - other 568 20% 15%

0203000000 Pork fresh, cooled or frozen: 999

0203211000 - - - hogs 793 600 76% 10% 10%

0203290000 - - other: 1281 1000 8% 10%

0203291300 - - - - loin and its cuts 1618 1000 62% 10%

0203295500 - - - - - boned 1266

0206000000 Food by-products, fresh, cooled or frozen 517 500 97% 15%

0206220000 - - liver: 527

0207000000 Meat and food by-products of poultry of fresh,

cooled or frozen: 279 400 143% 10% 10%

0207141000 - - - - boned 261 400 154% 10% 10%

Source: Law of Ukraine “On Customs Tariff”, draft Law “On Amending the Customs Tariff”, own calculations

Destination of wheat export

Theoretical grain thru put port capacity, Ml tons

2002/03 2003/04 2005/06 2008/09 2012*

17-18 20-22 27-28 31-32 45

Ukraine: The key elevator chains

Company Number of elevators

Total capacity, Th tons

Glencore 35 2 080Toepfer 11 513

Bunge 4 612Cargill 6 387

WJ 5 204Louis Dreyfus 5 264

Prices for Elevator services UAH/mt $=7.7UAH

Ukraine. Silos services costs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

receiving cleaning drying storage loading onrailw ay

transport

loading onauto transport

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Ukraine: Grain yield and profitability, %

Ukraine: Wheat prices

Ukraine: Corn prices

Ukraine: Barley prices

Ukraine: Comparative grain/sunseed values

Crop margins, UAH, as of May 2008

Crop efficiency

Sunflower (Steppe)

Winter rapeseed (Forest Steppe) Winter wheat

(Steppe)

Corn (Forest Steppe)

Price, UAH/T 4000 2900 1430 1230

Yield, T/ha 2.7 2.8 4.2 9.2

Government payment, UAH/Ha - - 100 -

Total Direct Costs, UAH/Ha 1285.9 1348.8 1915.8 1791.3

- Seed 173.3 252.3 413.4 361.4

- Fuel 213.3 369.4 301.9 346.5

- Fertilizer 460.0 266.3 487.3 320.0

- Crop protection 275.0 206.0 179.6 289.3

- Melioration - - 20.7 -

- Labour costs 48.5 55.7 89.9 106.9

- Machinery 65.2 119.6 156.0 86.1

- Other services costs - 77.6 185.0 90.0

- Autopark services costs 50.6 1.9 82.0 191.1

Total Revenue/Ha 9514.1 6771.2 4190.2 9524.7

Crop structure evolution

Ukraine: Crop structure evolution

Ukraine: Grain and Oilseed Crops Structure, Th ha

Crop 2008 2007 Growth/Reduction

Rapeseed 1 750 1 145 + 605

Wheat 7 000 6 511 + 489

Corn 2 500 2 200 + 300

Sunseed 4 320 4 170 + 150

Rye 465 352 + 113

Millet 130 106 + 24

Oat 425 407 + 18

Others 160 151 + 9

Total areas’ growth + 1,708

Barley 4 300 5 055 - 755

Sugar beet 410 635 - 225

Peas 225 368 - 143

Soybean 600 665 - 65

Buckwheat 310 337 - 27

Total areas’ reduction - 1,215

Ukraine: The Budget support for farmers, 2008

Crops Support rates, UAH/ha

Winter wheat, triticale, rye 100

Spring wheat, triticale, oats, peas, buckwheat, millet

100

Soybeans, at least 1st reproduction 80

Soybeans, 2nd and 3rd reproductions 50

Rice 220

Sugar beet 750

Long-fibred flax and retted hemp stalks 640

Ukraine: Financial support for agricultural producers, UAH Bl

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008

Total of VAT benefits*

3.78 4.12 5.71 8

The direct budgetary support **

1.78 2.80 4.04 4.5:

Ukraine: Ways of the Gov’t activity in the grain market

Seasons Mortgage purchases*

Intervention purchases*

Forward purchases

2001/2002 Х

2002/2003 Х

2003/2004 Х Х

2004/2005 Х Х

2005/2006 Х Х

2006/2007 Х Х

2007/2008 Х

2008/2009 Х Х

Ukraine: Gov’t grain procurements, Th mt

Year Intentions Actually procured

2005/2006 1500** 135

2006/2007 400 176

2007/2008 580 425

2008/2009 881 352***

Ukraine: Gov’t decisions on Ukraine’s

grain export quotas, 2006-2008The decision Time Wheat Barley Corn Rye

Government resolution of September 28, 2006, #1364

Automatic licensing

Government resolution of October 11, 2006, #1418

17.10.2006- 31.12.2006 400 600 600 3

Government resolution of December 8, 2006, #1701

14.12.2006-30.06.2007 3 600 500 3

Government resolution of February 13, 2007, #185

15.02.2007-30.06.2007 228 606 30

Government resolution of February 22, 2007, #290

26.02.07-07.06.07 Quotas cancelled

Quotas cancelled

Government resolution of May 16, 2007, #748

08.06.07-30.06.07 Quotas cancelled

Government resolution of June 20, 2007, #844

01.07.07- 31.10.07 3 3 3 3

Government resolution of October 31, 2007, #1287

20.06.07-31.12.07

Government resolution of September 26, 2007, #1179

01.01.08- 31.03.08 200 400 600 3

Government resolution of March 28, 2008, #271

01.04.08- 30.04.08 Automatic licensing

Government resolution of April 23, 2008, #418

01.01.08- 01.07.08 1200 900

Government resolution of May 21, 2008, #470

Both quotas and licenses were cancelled

Ukraine: Estimated exporters’ losses from VAT refund delays

Share of paid VAT in export price* 16.67%

The VAT refund delay 6 months

Credit rates 12%

Exporter losses (16.67х0.5х12), % to export price

10%

Ukraine: Public Associations in the Ag Sector

Title Activity field of members

Leader Possible source of information

Functional

Ukrainian Grain Association

Export and production of grain

Klymenko Volodymyr – President

http://www.uga-port.org.ua

All-Ukrainian Baker Association

Bread baking Slabovskyi Volodymyr – President

http://www.vap.org.ua

Union of Poultry Raisers of Ukraine

Poultry meat production

Bakumenko Olexandr – Chairman of Board

http://www.ptaha.kiev.ua

UkrKhlibProm Association

Bread baking Vasylchenko Olexandr – Board Chairman

http://ukrhlibprom.org.ua

TvarynProm Corporation

Meat production Gnatiuk Sergiy – Director General

http://www.minagro.gov.ua/page/?718

Union of Agricultural Exchanges of Ukraine

Exchange trade in agricultural produce

Berenshtein Borys – Director General

http://www.sabu.org.ua

Ukraine: Public Associations in the Ag Sector

Title Activity field of members Leader Possible source of information

Horizontal

Union of Agricultural Enterprises of Ukraine

Production of agricultural produce

Borovyk Olexandr – Chairman

http://who-is-who.com.ua/bookmaket/indagrim2007/16/281.html

Association of Farmers and Private Land Owners

Production of agricultural produce

Tomich Ivan http://who-is-who.com.ua/bookmaket/indagrim2007/16/282.html

Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation

Comprises associations, producers, processors and exporters of agricultural produce

Kozachenko Leonid – President

http://www.agroconf.org

Ukrainian Club of Agricultural Business

Production, processing and export of agricultural produce

Lissitsa Alex – President

http://www.agribusiness.kiev.ua

National Agricultural Chamber of Ukraine

Production of agricultural produce, advisory activity, wholesale markets of agricultural produce

Gladiy Mykhailo – President

http://www.agrichamber.org.ua

Ukraine: Private information sources

Daily news

Daily report

Weekly report

Monthly report

Market studies

Multi-client studies

Studies at request

UkrAgroConsult

http://www.ukragroconsult.com/

* * * * * *

APK-Inform http://www.apk-inform.com/

* * * * * *

AgroPerspektiva

http://www.agroperspectiva.com/

* * * * * *

ProAgro http://www.proagro.com.ua * * * * *

Agriculture http://www.agriagency.com.ua/

* * * * *

AgroOglyad http://www.lol.org.ua/ * * * *

Ukraine: Markets covered by private information sources

Grain market

Oilseed market

Meat market

Milk market

Sugar market

Fruit and Veg. Market

UkrAgroConsult

http://www.ukragroconsult.com/

* * * * *

APK-Inform http://www.apk-inform.com/

* * * * * *

AgroPerspektiva

http://www.agroperspectiva.com/

* * * *

ProAgro http://www.proagro.com.ua/

* * *

Agriculture http://www.agriagency.com.ua/

* * *

AgroOglyad http://www.lol.org.ua/ *

ROUND TABLE

THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF

THE UKRAINIAN GRAIN SECTOR

ORGANIZERS - FAO, EBRD

Presentation prepared by Commodity Market AnalystUkrAgroConsult

site:: www.ukragroconsult.comwww.blackseagrain.net