The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s ... · of geothermal energy, it is recommended that the 5% geothermal target can be implemented within the next ten years

The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector: An Analysis of Geothermal and

Cogeneration Technologies

Renewables in Eastern and Horn of Africa: Status and Prospects

Sponsored By

HBF-HA, Sida/SAREC and AFREPREN/FWD

By

Prof. Wolde-Ghiorgis Woldemariam

2004

EExxeeccuuttiivvee SSuummmmaarryy This study set out to investigate the viability of meeting 10% of Ethiopia’s electricity generation using geothermal and biomass-based cogeneration within the coming decade. The study established that at least 700 MWe of geothermal energy potential exists within the Rift Valley Region of the country, but this potential is largely underdeveloped. Out of the untapped geothermal resources, it is estimated that geothermal power in the range of 100 MWe - 120 MWe can be harnessed successfully within the coming decade, thus contributing to about 24% of the current electricity installed capacity. The 5% geothermal proposal is in line with the planned expansion of the existing electric power generation capacity in the country, which is expected to grow in the range of 2000 MWe - 2400 MWe. Up to 30 MWe of electricity can be generated by the existing sugar factories from bagasse-based cogeneration. The maximum capital cost required to develop geothermal resources in the next decade is estimated at US$ 2,466/kW while permanent jobs would be created at a rate greater than 2 persons/MWe. Generation cost are estimated at 6.5 US cents per kilowatt-hour. In addition, the failed pilot geothermal plant is thought to be repairable and expandable up to 30 MWe for a lifetime of 30 years. The study also addressed the merits and demerits of developing these two technologies in Ethiopia. Developments of geothermal resources in Ethiopia will therefore be feasible and attractive for two reasons. Firstly, because constructions of dams or thermal plants based on diesel generation will be significantly minimized; leading to major economic advantages in favor of geothermal plants. Secondly, there are solid economic opportunities and benefits for exporting electricity to neighboring countries reliably and profitably in the near future using a mix of energy resources. Recent experiences with unexpected and prolonged drought have amply shown that the national supply of electricity could be severely disrupted. When the generation capacity is guaranteed and strengthened by adding geothermal energy to the hydro energy resources of the country; probable disruptions in the generated supply will be greatly minimized. However, the envisaged power development schemes using geothermal resources in Ethiopia have been greatly hampered by inadequate and/or incompetent management of the system development process, including non-definitive appraisals of resources and lack of viable designs that take into account all measures of risk elements associated with geothermal plants. While the resources are waiting to be developed, the demand for electric energy is rising from a conservative estimate of 8% to 15.8% annually. Over next decade, the growth rate could still be higher. For instance, even quadrupling the existing electricity installed capacity may not match the projected significant increase of demand for power, taking into account the estimated increase population from 70 million to 95 million in ten years. Policy recommendations needed to promote and develop both geothermal and cogeneration energy resources, within a wider framework of renewable energy technologies, are provided. To realise the above estimated potential, it is strongly recommended that modern energy services are planned and improved through the promotion and dissemination of renewable energy technologies for income-generating and socio-economic activities. On the utilization of geothermal energy, it is recommended that the 5% geothermal target can be implemented within the next ten years provided geothermal energy development is given adequate priority comparable to that given to hydro power schemes. Another recommendation is that the failed pilot geothermal power plant should be repaired and expanded. Moreover, in line with the agriculture-led industrialization national strategy, the viability of cogeneration exists and this should be accompanied by the expansion of sugar factories.

The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector i

TTAABBLLEE OOFF CCOONNTTEENNTTSS Executive Summary............................................................................................................... i List of Tables........................................................................................................................ iii List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... iii Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................. iv 1.0 Overview of the Energy Sector and Status of Dissemination Of RETS in

Ethiopia ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Overview of the Energy Sector in Ethiopia............................................................... 1 1.3 Overview of Geothermal Energy and Cogeneration Developments in Ethiopia....... 5

2.0 Methodology........................................................................................................... 6

2.1 Methodology and Approach ..................................................................................... 6 2.2 Sources for Updated and Current Data.................................................................... 6

3.0 Prospects for Geothermal Energy Development in Ethiopia ............................. 8

3.1 Background: Global Development of Geothermal Energy ....................................... 8 3.2 Geothermal Energy in Ethiopia ................................................................................ 9 3.3 Challenges Encountered in the Utilization of the Pilot Geothermal Plant at Aluto

Langano ................................................................................................................. 11 3.4 Future Prospects of Geothermal Energy Utilization for Power Conversion in

Ethiopia .................................................................................................................. 14 4.0 Challenges Facing Dissemination of RETs In Ethiopia: Implications for

Cogeneration Development................................................................................. 22 4.1 Prospects of Biomass Cogeneration Development in Ethiopia .............................. 22

5.0 Merits and Demerits of Geothermal and Cogeneration Developments in

Ethiopia ................................................................................................................. 25 5.1 Merits and Demerits of Geothermal Energy Development in Ethiopia ................... 25 5.2 Merits and Demerits of Biomass-based Cogeneration in Ethiopia ......................... 26

6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................. 28

6.1 Conclusions on Prospects for Geothermal and Cogeneration Energy Development in Ethiopia .............................................................................................................. 28

6.2 Policy Recommendations....................................................................................... 29 7.0 References............................................................................................................ 31 8.0 Appendices........................................................................................................... 35

Appendix I: Tables............................................................................................................ 35 Appendix 2: Geothermal Potentials of Ethiopia ............................................................. 38

The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector ii

LLiisstt ooff TTaabblleess Table 1 Indigenous energy resources .............................................................................. 2 Table 2 Electrification and population levels in Ethiopia, 2001 ........................................ 2 Table 3 Modern Energy Consumption in Ethiopia by Sector (1996) ................................ 3 Table 4 Status of dissemination of renewable energy technologies in Ethiopia............... 4 Table 5 World Electricity Generation and Direct Use of Geothermal Energy in 1994 ...... 8 Table 6 Installed and planned world geothermal generating capacities (1995-2005) ...... 9 Table 7 Geothermal energy potential in Ethiopia ........................................................... 10 Table 8 Characteristics of the Aluto-Langano wells ....................................................... 12 Table 9 Aluto- Langano pilot geothermal plant: production well parameters ................. 12 Table 10 Proposed Phases of Geothermal Resource Development in Ethiopia.............. 16 Table 11 Ethiopia- Area under sugar cane cultivation, yield and cane production (1993/94

- 2002/03) .......................................................................................................... 22 Table 12 Finchaa Sugar Factory (FSF): Basic Operation and Performance Data ........... 23 LLiisstt ooff FFiigguurreess Figure 1 Energy Supply by Source in Ethiopia, 2001 ........................................................ 2 Figure 2 Electricity generation by source .......................................................................... 3

The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector iii

AAbbbbrreevviiaattiioonnss aanndd AAccrroonnyymmss ADLI Agriculture Development-Led Industrialization AFREPREN African Energy Policy Research Network CSA Central Statistical Authority EEPCO Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EIGS Ethiopian Institute of Geological Studies EREDPC Ethiopian Rural Energy Development and Promotion Centre FSF Finchaa Sugar Factory GTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit HBF Heinrich Böll Foundation HEPP Hydro Electric Power Plant ICS Interconnected system IPP Independent Power Producer KenGen Kenya Electricity Generating Company MSF Metahara Sugar Factory MOI Ministry of Infra-Structures MOM Ministry of Mines NBE National Bank of Ethiopia NCG Nordic Consulting Group NGOs Non-Government Organizations RETs Renewable Energy Technologies SCS Self Contained System SMEs Small Manufacturing Enterprises SSF Shoa Sugar Factory TOR Terms of Reference UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WEC World Energy Council WSSD World Summit for Sustainable Development

The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector iv

1.0 OOvveerrvviieeww ooff tthhee EEnneerrggyy SSeeccttoorr aanndd SSttaattuuss ooff DDiisssseemmiinnaattiioonn OOff RREETTSS iinn EEtthhiiooppiiaa

1.1 Introduction For sustainable development to occur in rural Ethiopia, modern energy services are required to spur income-generating activities. Currently, electricity meets motive power demand, which is only accessible in the larger towns, and mostly by diesel engines in areas without the grid. Wood and charcoal provide thermal energy for ovens, kilns and bellows (Kebede, 2001). However, the demand for these services exists only in urban areas. Rural homes are mostly made of mud and relatively higher quality wood, and metal products are not affordable to rural people. With an improving transport infrastructure, these industries may flourish in rural areas due to better access to energy. Important rural indigenous and cottage non-farm activities in Ethiopia include grain and oil mills, coffee processing, bakeries, lumber mills, brick and block making. Another economic challenge facing Ethiopia is the limited use of renewable energy technologies (RETs) for income generation. Wolde-Ghiorgis (2003) previously studied the technical and economic constraints limiting the wide use of RETs, especially for income-generating activities in Ethiopia. Assessments for provisions of modern energy services have been shown to depend on cost considerations. Electricity supplies from the centralized interconnected system are only reaching rural towns, administrative and major marketing centres with populations of 5,000 and above. Distribution is by means of 15-kV lines within 50 km from the grid, and with recently tried 33-kV lines up to distances of 100 km. Installation and wiring accessories are also imported making them unaffordable to rural communities. Decentralized electric services have also been provided by isolated self-contained systems using diesel generator sets. However, the key limiting factors are lack of affordability and technological awareness. Except for weak and poor quality lighting with kerosene lamps, rural households have not benefited from modern fuel supplies (e.g. electricity or coal) for cooking and productive activities. So, for vast rural areas without electricity, the obvious options could have been promotions of small-scale RETs for households, rural communities and productive centres. However, both previous and latest studies appear to confirm that the introduction of RETs may remain unattainable for long (Wolde-Ghiorgis, 1988; Wolde-Ghiorgis 1990; Wolde-Ghiorgis 2002; Tesfaye, 2002). The rationale for the study arose from the need for clean and modern energy services, which are needed for sustainable development and improvement in socio-economic conditions. The viability of a 5% target for geothermal energy development within the growth of Ethiopia’s power generation capacity in the next decade is assessed. Despite the depletion of traditional biomass energy resources, there are ample opportunities for obtaining clean and sustainable energy from cogeneration using biomass fuels. The fundamental objective of the study was thus to assess possibilities for improved energy services by harnessing these two major but hitherto under utilized renewable energy resources in Ethiopia: Geothermal and cogeneration.

1.2 Overview of the Energy Sector in Ethiopia Located in the “Horn of Africa”, Ethiopia is endowed with substantial resources that include biomass, natural gas, hydro power and geothermal energy. However, as observed from the current level of harnessing various energy sources (table 1), the country has a long way to go in order to realize high reliable delivery of energy services to its massive populace.

The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector

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Table 1 Indigenous energy resources Source Exploitable reserves Units Exploited percent% Hydro power 30,000 MW 3.3* Solar insolation /day 5.3 KWh/m2 ~0 Wind speed 3.5-5.5 m/s ~0 Geothermal 700 MW 1.2 Wood 1,120 Million tons 50 Agricultural waste 15-20 Million tons 30 Natural gas 76.5 Billion m3 0 Coal 13.7 Million tons 0

*With new plants to be commissioned soon and projects under construction (2003) Source: Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002; EREDPC, 2000; AFREPREN, 2003b Figure 1 Energy Supply by Source in Ethiopia, 2001

��

��

CWR93%

Petroleum6%

Electricity1%

Source: IEA, 2003 As shown in figure 1, biomass energy sources in the form of combustibles renewables and waste dominate Ethiopian energy statistics. This reflects significant dependency on traditional energy sources and low modern energy consumption. Access to electricity is also highly skewed and insignificant in total energy consumption. As shown in table 2 below, majority of the Ethiopian population (majority of who reside in rural areas) are yet to be electrified by the national electricity utility, Ethiopian Electric Power Company (EEPCo) with current installed capacity of 493MW. Table 2 Electrification and population levels in Ethiopia, 2001

Region Population (million) % access to electricity National 65.4 2.1 Urban 9.9 13.0 Rural 55.5 0.2

Source: IEA, 2003; Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2003; Teferra, 2003; Kebede, 2003 The bulk of electricity in Ethiopia comes from hydro power (98%), while fossil fuel generation produces about 2% (figure 2). The electricity sector is dominated by the Ethiopia Electric Power Company. However, there are other key players who include municipalities, communities and the private sector (Teferra, 2002).


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Figure 2 Electricity generation by source

arious assessments and studies have been conducted on the energy situation in Ethiopia

nsumption in Ethiopia by sector (1996)

��

��

Hydro98%

Fossil Fuel2%

V(CESEN, 1986a; Wolde-Ghiorgis, 1984; Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002; Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2003; World Bank, 1984; 1996). Compared to other less developed countries, provisions of modern energy services for socio-economic development programs and income-generating activities in Ethiopia are noticeably deficient, particularly in rural areas. It has also been realized by concerned authorities that energy is a fundamental input for improving the quality of life and for sustainable socio-economic development. Available literature shows that in Ethiopia, the focus has so far been on supplying modern energy services for the industrial and urban sectors whereas the rural settlements, accounting for about 85% of the total population, have been left to depend largely on traditional biomass energy sources (table 3). However, even in urban centres, access to modern energy is disproportionate because only Addis Ababa, the capital city, and other major urban towns have access to modern energy compared to other rural towns.

able 3 Modern energy coTSector Terra Joules/year Percentage (%)

Rural 602,184 83 Household Urban 42,565 6

Agriculture 816* <1* Transport 17,918 2.5 Industry 33,319 4.6 Services 26,067 3.6 All sectors 722,869 100 Without cractices

* onsideration of human and animal power which is extensively used in traditional rural farming p

hiopia therefore needs to be addressed from many angles with

Source: Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002

he energy sector in EtTparticular emphasis on developing appropriate policy, increasing the supply/generation mix beyond hydro power, and expanding the delivery of modern energy services to a larger proportion of the population particularly in rural areas. Towards this end, there are plans to reach a generating capacity of 3,000 MW over a ten-year period. To realize the projected generation of 3,000 MW, there is an urgent need for the country to explore other potential and cost-competitive sources of energy with a view to complementing the currently available hydro power. Thus, the need for this study to investigate the viability of harnessing additional


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power with particular emphasis on two renewable energy sources namely geothermal and biomass-based cogeneration. 1.2.1 Status of dissemination of renewable energy technologies in Ethiopia

issemination of RETs has been progressing in sub-Saharan Africa since the early 1990s

urther, dissemination of RETs (including improved wooden stoves) is fairly modest even in

able 4 Status of dissemination of renewable energy technologies in Ethiopia

D(Karekezi, 1992). However, their applications and uses in Ethiopia have registered widespread success (Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002). As shown in table 4, installations of photovoltaic systems (PVs) are very low, and are mainly used in the telecommunication industry. Other than few demonstration/pilot projects, and donor-driven installations initiated by NGOs (e.g. GTZ), there are few functioning RETs, including improved stoves, to be seen throughout the country. Harnessing of potentially abundant renewable energy sources (e.g. hydro, solar energy, and wind) has therefore remained insignificant. Frural areas of the country. This is limited to micro/mini hydro power plants providing mechanical and electrical power, and PV units. T

Technology Installations Capacity Photovoltaicsa p ~ 5000 ~1200kW Solar water heaters ~ 100 Wind pumps 200 Wind generators 2kW– r test 1 fo Small hydroelectric plants (<5 MW)b 30 6.5MW Water mills (including those not functional)

~300? 1.5-2million

1 to 5kW/unit Improved stovesc

Key udes 575 stations of the Telecommunication Corporation with capacity of about 1,200 kWp.

s developed by

ls are used; in any case, most of the disseminations

ased on the present low levels of dissemination of RETs, the following critical issues of

gy transfer, even for mature and proven RETs (e.g. wind pumps

Inadequate human capacity building at different levels, and for specific tasks, including

Lack of institutional frameworks for planning, promoting and regulating of local

Modest levels (and in some regions total non-existence) of modern energy services to

ue to the immense but largely untapped renewable energy resources in Ethiopia (table 1),

organized into manageable and bankable groups.

a Inclb Includes EEPCO’s 3 mini hydro stations (with total capacity of 6.1 MW) and 27 micro hydro sitea Church Organization, some of which are non-operational. c Improved stoves are included as RETs since biomass fueare in major urban centres. These have been disseminated by the EREDPC and GTZ. Source: Tesfaye, 2002 Bconcern have been noted: Slow pace of technolo

and biogas digesters)

management and operational skills and knowhow for various RETs

assembling and manufacturing of RETs

support socio-economic activities, in line with the Agriculture Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy

Drenewables could in principle be considered as viable options for developing Ethiopia’s energy sector. However, there are constraints that pose serious challenges. The major limitations include inappropriate modes and slow pace of technology transfer. The fact that, per unit of power delivered from RETs, the cost is relatively higher is seen as a major constraint to rapid and wider dissemination. In addition, provision of credit facilities using commercial or soft loans will remain complex and unattainable unless potential users are


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Further, progress in promotions of RETs would be subject to strategies and policies on

chnology transfer with requisite capability building for installations, operations,

Energy and Cogeneration Developments in Ethiopia

s many countries of the world (Fridleifsson, 2003). Except for a small pilot power plant that

re has been over 50 years experience in sugar factories for ternal use, but not for export of electricity to the interconnected grid. The oldest sugar

temaintenance and repairs targeting entrepreneurs, installers, and end-users. As indicated earlier, goals and strategy formulations for energy development are yet to be devised and adopted. Besides, there are concerns that applications and uses of RETs could be too limited to meet the energy requirements for productive end-uses, hence poverty alleviation. Henceforth, implications of low disseminations of RETs will need to be considered in order to seek alternative or complementary solutions to current and future energy requirements. There exist proven and viable potential for the development of these two options in Ethiopia as discussed in the next section.

.3 Overview of Geothermal 1 Geothermal energy has been extensively used for power generation and direct applicationinwas started in 1998, and failed in 2002, the experience in Ethiopia has so far been restricted to limited direct uses. The well-known African Rift Valley Region in the eastern corner of Africa passes through Ethiopia, and continues into Kenya, and neighbouring eastern African countries. Usable geothermal energy potentials have been known to exist in Ethiopia, along with other counties within the African Rift Valley Region. Presence of the three types of geothermal energy (i.e. hot water fields, wet steam fields and dry steam fields), with temperatures in the ranges of 500C to 3000C have been firmly ascertained. However, progress towards full utilization of the available energy, other than in bathing hot springs, has not been successful in Ethiopia. Still, there are potentials for electric power generation in the ranges of 700 MW to 3,000 MW. With regards to cogeneration, theinfactory in Ethiopia (Wonji) on the Awash River is over 40 years old. This was expanded to include the Shoa and Metahara factories, again on the down streams of the same river. Then in 1998, after some prolonged delays, the Finchaa Sugar Factory (FSF) was commissioned. It is worthwhile to note that the four sugar factories were found to be viable schemes as part of hydro power development projects. Of the four factories, planners and designers of the FSF had included cogeneration as a significant portion of the factory. The basic aim was to work closely with the national utility, the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO) on exporting cogenerated electricity to the national grid. However, the cogeneration power strategy is yet to be fully designed and agreed upon. The other sugar factories, notably Shoa, have also plans for expansions using increased bagasse supplies for possible export to EEPCO's grid system.


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2.0 MMeetthhooddoollooggyy

2.1 Methodology and Approach As mentioned earlier, this study is based on the need to promote two hitherto under utilized renewable energy sources within the region, namely cogeneration and geothermal. It presupposes that utilization of geothermal and cogeneration energy resources could meet about 10% of the Ethiopia’s energy supply within the next decade. This is in line with proposals made at the World Summit for Sustainable Development (WSSD) in August 2002. In the case of Ethiopia, the objective was to aim at 10% of total electricity generation from geothermal and biomass-based cogeneration. To test the set hypothesis, data was sought from countries and regions with geothermal energy and biomass resources for cogeneration. This included a broader review of the status of renewables in the East and Horn of Africa Region. Using local and international data on energy development and patterns, qualitative and semi-quantitative assessments of the hypothesis were carried out. A survey of local and international data on utilization of geothermal energy was done. Similarly, the viability of biomass-based cogeneration option, notably using bagasse from sugar factories, was examined. The methodology also involved conducting personal interviews, and visits to libraries, sugar factories and geothermal fields. 2.2 Sources for Updated and Current Data For data on geothermal energy prospects, results of previous studies in Ethiopia were utilized, although the data is somewhat outdated; with some data sets dated back to the early 1980s. These have been obtained from the Geothermal Division of the Ethiopian Institute of Geological Studies (EIGS). Published papers and reports prepared by consultants that focused on the geo-chemical and geophysical aspects were also useful. Modelling studies on steam flows, enthalpies, pressures and temperature characteristics are however not available. The available data was however adequate for providing definite indicators for making reconnaissance studies on prospective geothermal fields. Additional data was available from a detailed Ethiopia country study on the status of renewables conducted previously, as well as the internet. On the other hand, no elaborate studies have been done on cogeneration practices in Ethiopia, and lessons could only be taken from external sources and experiences. Aspects of feasibility studies conducted by consultants in designing the latest sugar factory were utilized (Worku, 2002). These in turn have been based on experiences in the older plants. The oldest sugar factory in Ethiopia (Wonji) was commissioned in the early 1950s. Thermal energy was obtained from combusting bagasse for both industrial processes and electricity generation. However, electric supply for irrigation requirements was purchased from the electric utility. In the newer plants (Finchaa and Metahara Sugar Factories), significant portions of energy requirements are produced through cogeneration within the factory. The present study made use of data from Finchaa Sugar Factory (FSF). In future, attempts will be made to find similar data from the other sugar plants. Previous energy studies depended on data obtained from reports and surveys provided by the Central Statistical Authority (CSA) of Ethiopia. For the present study, CSA surveys on large and medium scale manufacturing and electricity industries, which include sugar industries were utilized. The annual CSA abstracts also provided data on sugar plantations. Data obtained from these sources was helpful in appraising preliminarily viabilities of cogeneration in the sugar factories. Further, by considering experiences of other developing countries in promoting cogeneration initiatives as applications of RETs, studies of great relevance and interest were found. However, detailed studies on market research linking


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industrial firms and utilities were not available. In this regard, the experiences of countries in the East African region would be of particular interest for future investigations.


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3.0 PPrroossppeeccttss ffoorr GGeeootthheerrmmaall EEnneerrggyy DDeevveellooppmmeenntt iinn EEtthhiiooppiiaa

3.1 Background: Global Development of Geothermal Energy Geothermal energy is the natural heat of the earth found in geologically active regions of the world (Fridleifsson, 2003). These immense amounts of thermal energy are utilized for electricity generation and direct applications of thermal energy in many parts of the world as shown in table 5 and 6. Table 5 World electricity generation and direct use of geothermal energy in 1994

Electricity Generation Direct Utilization Country Installed

capacity MWe

Annual output GWh

Installed capacity

MWe

Annual output GWh

China 30 *** 98 2,814 * 8,724 * Costa Rica 60 447 -- -- El Salvador 105 419 -- -- France 4 24 326 * 1,360 * Georgia -- -- 245 2,136 Hungary -- -- 328 * 785 * Iceland 50 265 1,469 * 5,603 * Indonesia 309 1,048 -- -- Italy 626 3,419 326 * 1,048 * Japan 299 1,722 319 1,928 Kenya 121 **** 480 *** -- -- Macedonia -- -- 70 142 Mexico 827.9 ** 5,877 28 74 New Zealand 286 2,193 308 * 1,967 * Nicaragua 70 -- -- -- Philippines 1,501 5,470 -- -- Poland -- -- 63 206 Romania 2 -- 137 765 Russian Fed. 11 25 307 * 1,703 * Serbia -- -- 80 600 Slovakia -- -- 100 502 Switzerland -- -- 547 * 663 * Tunisia -- -- 90 788 Turkey 20 68 820 * 4,377 * USA 2,817 16,491 5,366 * 5,640 * Others 7 40 329 1,935 Total 7,145.9 38,086 14,072 40,946

* 2000 Data ** 2001Data *** 2002 Data **** 2004 Data Source: Fridleifsson, 2003; World Geothermal Conference, 2000; Mbuthi, 2004; Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), 2002; AFREPREN, 2003


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Table 6 Installed and planned world geothermal generating capacities (1995-2005) Country 1995 MWe 2000 MWe 2005 (est.

MWe) 1995-2000 MWe increase

% Increase

Argentina 0.67 0 n/a -0.67 n/a Australia 0.17 0.17 n/a 0.00 0 China 28.78 29.17 n/a 0.39 1.36 Costa Rica 55.00 142.50 161.50 87.50 159.10 El Salvador 105.00 161.00 200.00 56.00 53.30 Ethiopia 0 8.52 8.52 8.52 Infinite France 4.20 4.20 20.00 0 0 Guatemala 0 33.40 33.40 33.40 Infinite Iceland 50.00 170.00 186.00 120.00 240.00 Indonesia 309.75 589.50 1987.50 279.75 90.30 Italy 631.70 785.00 946.00 153.30 24.30 Japan 413.705 546.90 566.90 133.195 32.20 Kenya 45.00 53.00 173.00 8.00 17.80 Mexico 753.00 755.00 1080.00 2.00 0.30 New Zealand 286.00 437.00 437.00 151.00 52.80 Nicaragua 70.00 70.00 145.00 0 0 Philippines 1,227.00 1,909.00 2,673.00 682.00 55.60 Portugal 5.00 16.00 45.00 11.00 220.00 Russia 11.00 23.00 125.00 12.00 109.10 Thailand 0.30 0.30 0.30 0 0 Turkey 20.40 20.40 250.00 0 0 USA 2,816.70 2,228.00 2,376.00 -588 n/a TOTALS 6,833.375 7,982.06 11,414.12 1.148.685 1,056.16

Source: World Geothermal Conference, 2000; Amdeberhan, 2004; AFREPREN, 2003 In 1994 the USA had nearly two-thirds of global geothermal electrical installed capacity, with about 3,000 MW (World Geothermal Conference, 2000). In Africa, Kenya was the leader and pioneer in utilising geothermal resources. Other countries making significant uses of geothermal energy have been Japan, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Hungary, France and Italy. As shown in table 6, total installed capacity around the world was estimated to be in the region of 7,000 MW. The technologies employed in exploiting the different grades of geothermal hot fluids have been built and standardized around three conversion systems (Friedleifsson, 2003). These are known as: (i) direct steam conversion, (ii) flash steam conversion, and (iii) binary cycle. The direct conversion method utilizes steam from a vapour-dominated hot fluid. In the flash steam conversion system, the steam is obtained by using a separator that removes the hot water and brine. The flashed steam is piped into a turbine, while the unflashed brine is sent for re-injection or disposal. A cooling process is again employed as in the direct conversion system. The third and more recent technology has been developed for utilizing the energy content of a water-dominated hot fluid. The geothermal energy is not used to drive a turbine directly. Instead, the geothermal energy contained in the hot fluid is used to vaporize a hydrocarbon fuel (e.g. pentane or isobutane). The vaporised gas vapour is then led to drive a turbine.

3.2 Geothermal Energy in Ethiopia 3.2.1 Background Started in 1969, geothermal energy explorations in Ethiopia's Rift Valley Region have been done for quite some time (Acquater, 1996; 1996b; Genzel, Molla, 1986; Wolde-Ghiorgis, 1996). Extensive studies on the geology and geochemistry of selected areas in the northern, central and southern ends of the volcanic region have been covered (see appendix 2). The theoretical investigations and engineering studies have however not been translated into feasible energy projects, specifically in the utilization of the available energy for the


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generation of electricity. Potential for utilization of geothermal energy for electric energy production has been firmly ascertained. The usable geothermal energy potentials in Ethiopia are as shown in table 7. Table 7 Geothermal energy potential in Ethiopia

Region Geothermal Potential Lakes District 170 MW Southern Afar 120 MW Central Afar 260 MW Danakil Depression 150 MW Total 700 MW

Source: Acquatter, 1996b Other sources further indicate that that the estimate for exploitable geothermal energy can be as high as 3,000 MW (Amdeberhan, 2000). Ranking behind, the immense hydro power potentials of the country (approximately 30,000 MW), geothermal energy has been established as a viable source of renewable energy. Geothermal energy in Ethiopia is suitable for development within reasonable costs in view of the proximity of the potential sites to the interconnected electric grid (ICS). Geothermal energy could meet both domestic and export needs for power. Once initiated, it could be implemented as a continuing program of energy extraction in the Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia extending northwards and southwards. 3.2.2 Pilot power plant for utilizing the Aluto-Langano geothermal field Based on a 1986 study, a geothermal pilot plant was built and commissioned in 1996. The site chosen was at Aluto-Langano in the central region of the Rift Valley, very close to the interconnected national grid. The Aluto geothermal field is located about 200 km south of Addis Ababa, between Lakes Ziway and Langano. Spread over an area of about 10 km2, the site has been investigated extensively, and it has been concluded that there are proven potential energy resources. The maximum capacity of the geothermal field has been estimated at 30 MW. The pilot plant was 5.3 MW1 (Genzl, 1995). The expected lifetime of the power plant was estimated at 30 years. The idea was that after experience has been gained in operating the relatively small power plant, the plant would be expanded to increase the installed power capacity to 30 MW. The locations of the drilled and tested Aluto Langano wells are shown in appendix 2. Data is based on measurements and tests made from 1982 to 1985 (Belayneh, 1986), and reassessed in 1995 (Electro-consult, 1985; Genzel, 1995). The wells are closely spaced for interconnections of the necessary piping systems for delivery of the hot fluid. The characteristics of the eight wells are shown in table 8. Each well is designated as LA (for Langano-Aluto), and the numbers ranging from 1 to 8. Out of a total number of eight wells, four were selected for power generation, and one for re-injection of used fuels. These were LA-3, LA-4, LA-6 and LA-8. Well LA-7 which had lower steam production was to be used for reinjection. As indicated earlier, the success of the pilot project depended on the proposal that the estimated 5.3 MW power capacity could be raised to 7.3 MW by combining dry steam and binary conversion methods. Then, in a second development stage, it was foreseen that a 15 MW plant could be built. As recommended in the 1985 study, the final expectation was to reach 30 MW after an additional number of 17 to 20 wells were drilled and successfully tested (Genzl Consulting Group, 1995). The critical requirement was that the total production capacity of the wells to generate 7.3 MWe had first to be confirmed. The prospects of the additional 15 MW, and finally 30 MW plant capacities were to be assessed later.


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1 The pilot project was originally estimated to have a capacity of 5.3 MW, but this could be increased to 7.28 MW if dry steam and binary conversion methods were used.

3.3 Challenges Encountered in the Utilization of the Pilot Geothermal Plant at Aluto Langano

In theory, the binary conversion process promised optimal operations of a small pilot geothermal plant with low-temperature, low-pressure and low-enthalpy processes. In practice, as experienced in the Aluto-Langano pilot project, it was full of risks and operational problems. Due to various reasons, the pilot plant at Aluto-Langano therefore ended up as being a failure, and it was stopped in June 2002. Major constraints included the management and smooth operation of the pilot power plant. However, the steam supply was not a problem (Amdeberhan, 2004). When the pilot project was recommended in 1997 by a team involving the Principal Researcher, and approval was given, its success was never in doubt. All design parameters were defended and explained. The only concern expressed was that the well characteristics given in table 7 were not reliable since they had been recorded 12 years earlier, and the wells had remained sealed. In this regard, it was explained that the characteristics would have had time to stabilize and relied upon. In addition, it was felt that there was no need for drilling additional wells, or for strengthening existing wells. Therefore it was strongly argued that at a cost of US$ 16.5 million for a 7.2 MW geothermal plant that was originally recommended as a 5 MW plant, the whole project was a bargain to be taken seriously. Grid connections were completed on time for commencement of operation to a nearby substation by means of an 11 km 15 kV transmission line, later to be stepped up to 132 kV interconnected grid. The gross output of the pilot plant was 8.2 MW, while the net output was 7.2 MW. These were to be obtained from two units of dry steam and binary converters working in parallel operation. The dry steam turbine was specified to operate at: inlet temperature of 187.4 0C ; inlet pressure 13 bars, steam quality 99.98%; flow rate

of 28,767 kg/hr, non-condensables of 1822 kg/hr steam outlet pressure of 1.3 bars; and

speed 6,000 rpm

The dry steam turbine was coupled to a brushless synchronous generator with a nominal output of 4,750 kW; terminal voltage of 11 kV ± 5%; rated current, 381 A; frequency 50 Hz; power factor, 0.8; speed 1,500 rpm; and insulation, class F, temperature 900C. The binary conversion unit, on the other hand, was based on using low temperature and low-pressure geothermal fluid with a mix of brine to vaporize pentane and to drive a turbine by an expansion process. The inlet steam and brine conditions were specified as follows: steam flow rate of 29, 657 kg/hr with NCG of 2,813 kg/hr, and at a temperature of

53.00C and a pressure of 5.0 bar; inlet brine conditions of 159,231.0 kg/hr flow rate, and at a temperature of 51.80C and

pressure of 5.9 bar. The turbine driven by the vaporized hydrocarbon (pentane) was coupled to a synchronous generator with the following ratings: rated capacity, 5,625 kVA; terminal voltage, 11 kV; and rated power, 4,500 kW.


11

Table 8 Characteristics of the Aluto-Langano wells

Source: Belayneh, 1986 Table 9 Aluto- Langano pilot geothermal plant: production well parameters

Source: EEPCO, 2003

Well Characteristics LA-1 LA-2 LA-3 LA-4 LA-5 LA-6 LA-7 LA-8 Total Depth (maximum, m) 1317 1602 2144 2062 1867 2201 2449 2500 16142 Temperature (0C) maximum 83 110 314 233 208 335 226 271 - Shut-in pressure (bars) - - 54 40 - 65 35 - - Total discharge (ton/hour) - - 38 90 - 40 91 65 324 Steam discharge (ton/hour) - - 17.8 14.2 - 18.8 14.4 14.9 80.1 Hot water discharge (ton/hour) - - 20.2 75.8 - 21.2 76.6 50.1 243.9 Enthalpy (kJ/kg) 348 461 1650 1000 889 1650 970 1150 - Thermal energy (MW) - - 17.4 25.0 - 18.3 24.5 20.8 106 Gas contents (mm/mm moles of steam)

- - 2000 4500 - 2500 2150 2220 13370

Electrical power (MWe) - - 2.5 2.0 - 2.7 1.1 2.0 10.3

Description Units LA-3 Wellhead

LA-6 Wellhead

LA-4 Wellhead

LA-8 Wellhead

Enthalpy Kilojoule/kg 1550 1630 970 1120 Pressure Bar 0 12.5 13.35 6.4 8.4 Temperature C 188.6 191.6 159 171.1 High pressure steam flow Kg/hr 11,880 16,765 13,692 9,712 Non-condensable gas flow (NCG flow)

Kg/hr 740 1082 2,050 763

Brine flow Kg/hr 19,570 23,753 81,858 40,425 Total flow Kg/hr 32,190 41,600 97,600 50,900 Pipe length m 250 620 1350 1160 Pipe diameter inch 8 8 10/12 10 Velocity m/sec 18 24 26/21 23 Pressure drop bar 0.2 1.0 1.05 0.60 Elevation m 1921 1956 1962 1996

Soon after commissioning in July 1998, the plant only yielded 6 MW. Then the power output dropped to 4.1 MW within a few days of operation. With time, the power output kept on decreasing. In June 2002, the operation of the pilot geothermal plant had to be stopped as electrical power output had decreased to 0.82 MW from one well. Causes of failure are still being investigated. A mission of experts had since then visited the failed pilot plant. Members of the team included reservoir engineers; geochemists; as well as mechanical and electrical engineers and the main objectives of the mission were to: (Amdeberhan, 2003).

(i) identify the problems encountered in the operation of the plant; and (ii) assess the requirements for rectification of problems associated with the overall well

characteristics. The mission of experts reached the following major findings and conclusions:

Two wells (LA-3 and LA-6) have relatively high steam productions, while two wells (LA-4) and LA-8) have relatively low steam production and medium discharge pressures.

Well head valves had operational or leakage problems.

Two-phase fluid transmission pipes caused disc ruptures at wells LA-3 and LA-6,

and there are needs for modifying bleed lines.


12

Separators of steam and brine at each wellhead were investigated and found to be filled with rock fragments and sand. Brine accumulators at each well site, though in clean conditions, still had some sandy material deposits accumulated during opening of the wells.

Rock mufflers (silencers) were found plugged by rock fragments and sand

materials.

A very low degree of precipitation (scaling) was observed (thickness of 1.5 mm) on a pipeline line from well LA-6.

Some sections of transmission lines were without insulation to prevent heat loss.

Gauges and instruments were out of order, possibly due to faulty installations of

equipment and instruments. The power plant was to be supplied with high-pressure steam from wells LA-3 and LA-6, and low-pressure steam from LA-4 and LA-8 with brine from all wells going to the binary unit. The team of experts found one driven generator coupled to the two turbines. Failures in the turbines were also noted to be due to use of hydraulic oil instead of synthetic oil for lubrication of bearings. Further, belts and bearings of condensers were damaged. No major problems were found in cracking of civil structures except minor damages due to corrosion at one of the wells. The internal assessment took over 18 months, due to serious problems at the plant, but no follow up study was done to re-appraise the potential of the energy resource. In 2003, consultancy service for the rehabilitation of Aluto-Langano Geothermal Electric Project Plant was advertised with the following terms of reference (EEPCO, 2003): assessment and determination of the actual available geothermal resource

characteristics such as average temperature, pressure, enthalpy, etc., for all geothermal wells;

determination of the cause for variation of the output of the geothermal resources;

investigation and determination possible scaling in the boreholes or in the surface

devices and pipelines; determination of other deposits other than scaling in the pipes, brine accumulator,

separator, etc.; designing a set up that could enable the smooth parallel operation of two or more

wells; identification of problems of all wellhead valves; and

determination of root causes for variations in the discharges of production wells.

Further, the utility is in urgent need of concrete appraisals of the selected conversion methods and associated technologies used in the pilot plant. In this regard, major areas of concern have focused on six fundamental and interrelated technological and critical engineering problems, namely: establishing root causes for cooling fan failures;

finding out the core problem for the pentane leakage in the binary conversion unit;

examination of the main causes for failure of the system that detects fire and H2S

emissions; redesigning the rock muffler to resolve overflow problems;


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making available manual automation system; and provision of an up-to-date software program

One of the discharging wells at Aluto Langano Assuming the required consultancy services are completed within 2004, it is expected that the rehabilitation of the pilot project plant could be started and completed in 2005 or early 2006.

3.4 Future Prospects of Geothermal Energy Utilization for Power Conversion in Ethiopia

At the end of 2003, development of geothermal energy in Ethiopia is still in preliminary stages as was the situation in 1985; long before the commissioning of the Aluto pilot plant in 1998. Still, the availability of untapped resources make it imperative to take lessons from other countries, including neighbouring Kenya. Besides, the locations of the geothermal energy sources are suitable for launching initiatives for their developments within the coming decade. The prospects for the utilization of geothermal energy can thus be assessed broadly in terms of technical and economic viabilities as presented in the subsequent sub-sections. 3.4.1 Technical barriers against developments of geothermal energy in Ethiopia In the Ethiopian context, technical barriers exist in the dissemination and development of geothermal energy as demonstrated by the experiences of developed and developing countries. In relation to the number of wells drilled and the required professional geochemist person-years, the key technical barriers to be overcome can be identified as follows:


14

management and planning capabilities to identify, prepare and implement feasible geothermal projects;

technical and techno-economic knowledge and know-how of geothermal

technologies; availability of geothermal equipment; and

tools to help decision makers in prioritising and selecting suitable geothermal energy

projects. Geothermal energy can be harnessed using standard conversion methodologies for natural steam flows with relatively high enthalpies, temperatures and pressures. Potentially, the harnessing of geothermal energy appears straightforward. Experience has however shown that both scientific and engineering studies will need to be accomplished in advance so as to make the final power capacity designs viable and reliable. In the case of Ethiopia, it will be important to remove or reduce the above indicated technical barriers within the shortest possible time. This will need to be done through intensified training programs of studies that may range from one to two years. The requisite training programs can be offered within local institutions and/or in recognized external institutes.

3.4.2 Technical assessments and viability of the 5% geothermal target for Ethiopia While acknowledging that past shortcomings from the initial pilot plant have hitherto hampered progress in geothermal development in Ethiopia, considerable potential in this field still exists within the next ten years. Therefore, it is possible to successfully achieve a 5% geothermal target of the national generating capacity in the next ten years. Judging from the experience of countries that have succeeded in utilizing geothermal energy resources, particularly Kenya, it appears that there are five important phases that need to be systematically managed to realize a successful geothermal project and they include: (1) exploration; (2) appraisal; 3) steam field development; (4) power plant planning and construction; and (5) effective resource utilization. As shown in table 10 each phase involves detailed activities to be handled by professionals trained for and employed by the concerned utility, which in the case of Ethiopia will be EEPCO.


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Table 10 Proposed Phases of Geothermal Resource Development in Ethiopia

REQUIRED PROFESSIONALS PHASE ACTIVITY

SPECIALIZATION NUMBERS

RECONNAISSANCE SURVEYS

Geologists Geophysicists Geochemists Environmentalists

3 2 2 2

DETAILED INVESTIGATION

Geologists Geophysicists Geochemists Environmentalists

3 2 2 2

EXPLORATION

EXPLORATION DRILLING

Drilling Engineers Reservoir Engineers Geologists Geochemists Environmentalists

3 2 2 2 2

APPRAISAL DRILLING


3 2 2 2 2

RESERVOIR EVALUATION

Reservoir Engineers Geochemists Geophysicists Geologists

3 2 2 2

APPRAISAL

FEASIBILITY STUDY Electrical Engineers Mechanical Engineers Environmentalists

3 2 2

PRODUCTION DRILLING


3 2 2 2 2

WELL TESTING Reservoir Engineers Environmentalists

3 2

STEAM FIELD DEVELOPMENT

PRELIMINARY DESIGN Electrical Engineers Mechanical Engineers Environmentalists

3 2 2

DETAILED DESIGN

Civil Engineers Electrical Engineers Mechanical Engineers Environmentalists

3 2 2 2

CONSTRUCTION

Civil Engineers Electrical Engineers Mechanical Engineers Environmentalists

3 2 2 2

POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION

COMMISSIONING Electrical Engineers Mechanical Engineers

3 1

OPERATION Electrical Engineers Mechanical Engineers

3 1

PLANT MAINTENANCE Electrical Engineers Mechanical Engineers

3 2 RESOURCE UTILIZATION

RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT

Reservoir Engineers Geologists Geochemists Environmentalists

2 2 2 2

Source: Adapted from Kenya Power Generation Company, KenGen, 2001

As shown in table 10, highly specialised geologists, geophysicists, geochemists and environmentalists will be required in the reconnaissance surveys of the exploration phase.


16

Then these same specialists will move to the detailed investigations and drilling activities which are to be undertaken within the exploration phase. Drilling engineers will continue assisting up to the end of the appraisal phase. In the case of Ethiopia more engineers will need to be engaged if the geothermal power plant project is to be upgraded to steam field development followed by power plant construction, and finally resource utilisation. The other alternative is to allow the full engagement of an independent power producer (IPP). Central to the question of technical viability will also be the range of geothermal power capacity that can be viably considered for development within the coming decade. Starting from existing EEPCO's plant capacities, on going projects, and committed schemes, one can arrive at a close estimate for the ten-year power expansion plan as follows: • Existing generating capacity as of mid 2004: 684 MW • On-going hydro power project slated for commissioning by 2008: 300 MW • Committed hydro power projects planned to be started

soon and to be commissioned by 2007 and 2008: 570 MW • Planned Emergency diesel power plants: 100 MW • Planned wind Farms, final generating capacity estimate: 60 MW Total 1,714 MW Because the demand for electrification in Ethiopia has suddenly increased from 8% to 15.8% within one year, it is seen that the above estimate is low. Within the coming decade the actual power demand could easily increase up to 2,000 MW, or even 2,400 MW. Taking these extended estimates, then the 5% geothermal target was calculated approximately to be in the range of 100 MWe - 120 MWe2 geothermal power, which corresponds to 8.6% -17.2% of the proven potential of 700 MW. 3.4.3 Economic viability of the 5% geothermal target The economic viability of a 5% geothermal target in Ethiopia can be based on the technical viability, and on the costs to be incurred in developing a geothermal power plant. Assessments of the economic and financial viabilities will need to be done in comparison with the locations of the known hydro power resources of the country in relation to power generation development plans. According to Amdeberhan (2004), the key factors affecting costs of geothermal power can be classified into six categories as follows: • Exploration costs*: which involve costs of topographical and geological surveys. Related activities to be included are outlays for geophysical and geochemical investigations, as well as exploratory drilling and field investigations. • Well drilling costs*: which will comprise the sinking of production bores. These will also include some proportion of "failure" bores at locations convenient for power production to be determined at the exploration stage. The results of the exploratory investigations should indicate the greatest probability of achieving high production. • Plant and equipment costs*: which will be costs of well head collection equipment, transmission pipe works and instrumentation. The other important components are the power generation equipment (i.e. turbine and generator) and waste disposal equipment.


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2 These estimates are subject to further reviews and approvals by qualified consultants and concerned policy/decision makers. At this preliminary stage, what can be ascertained is that the geothermal option is viable and may take only three years before commissioning. Thus it is technically more viable than a hydropower scheme which would have a lead time of five or even seven years before commissioning.

• Operating and maintenance costs: which will include costs of maintenance and repairs of pipe works, valves and well-head equipment. There are also maintenance of bores by descaling and other appropriate techniques. • Redrilling costs: for bore replacements, which may be necessary from time to time to make improvements in losses of fluid yields from aging bores. Such costs would be equivalent to fuel costs in thermal power plants. • Administrative costs: which are monthly and yearly payments for salaries and wages of the operating, inspection and supervisory staff. *The first three cost elements marked with the asterisk mark (*) denote fixed or capital costs, while the rest are recurring or variable costs. In the final analysis, each cost component will contribute to the energy price to be recovered through tariffs per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity to be sold to consumers. In addition, the technology and equipment associated with geothermal plants have to be recognized as being new and advanced to the Ethiopian situation in most aspects. Other than partial assembly of simple sub-systems, components of a geothermal plant cannot be manufactured locally. As a matter of fact, some attempts of modest repair works were made on parts of turbines (e.g. bearings) at Aluto during operations in 2001/2002, which unfortunately were not successful. Therefore, in the early stages of development in Ethiopia, the aim should be to opt for "turn-key" geothermal projects and warranties, accompanied by after-sale service should also be provided for at least two or three years of initial operations. 3.4.4 Manpower requirements and prospects for job creation Manpower requirements are influenced by a number of factors including, technical skills, size of the development, existing organization, legal and institutional requirements, and traditional and/or local work habits. The size of the organization required will depend on the size of the program. As shown in table 10, attempts have been done to provide number of skilled personnel for the different activities. The estimates have been based on experiences derived from Kenya in the development of geothermal resources (KenGen, 2001). In identified potential fields, to carry out drilling and investigation activities, the number of professional staff and workmen required are approximately 75 and 100, respectively (Amdeberhan, 1987). More direct cases can also be considered from geothermal power plants in New Zealand and the USA. In Wairaki power station (New Zealand), with a capacity of 192 MW, including electrical staff, manpower requirements include (i) power station operators at 87 men for 192 MW plant, or 0.453 men/MWe installed; (ii) field equipment operators at 66 men for 192 MW, or 0.344 men/MWe installed; making it an estimated total of 153 men for 192 MW, or 0.797 men/MWe installed (Christopher, and Armstead, 1983). On the other hand, geysers in the USA, excluding the steam supply system, have 22 staff to operate a 960.4 MWe power plant, or 0.231 men/MWe installed. Therefore, depending on the degree of automation of a given geothermal plant, it is possible to significantly reduce the manpower required to operate the plant. Nevertheless, the above figures are only approximations and may not be directly apply to similar developments in Ethiopia. Assuming low automation as in the case of the Wairaki geothermal field, a minimum of about 0.8 men/MWe installed would be required. Unless imposed by technological requirements, automation of the envisaged geothermal plants can still be significantly flexible. For the 100 MWe to 120 MWe geothermal power developments


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in Ethiopia in the coming ten years, about 2.0 men/MWe3 can be recommended. This would result in roughly 120 to 240 permanent jobs being created.


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3 It is expected that the level of automation in the Ethiopian geothermal plants will be lower than that in New Zealand, thus the use of a higher estimate.

3.4.5 Economic and policy assessment After the commissioning of the Gigel Gibe Hydroelectric Power Plant (184 MWe) in February 2004, additional hydro power schemes have been approved by the Ethiopian Government. Likewise, after the recommissioning of the repaired Aluto Project, it can be expected that similar steps will be taken for developing the untapped geothermal resources. Therefore, in a nutshell, except for a statement of basic interest in energy mix options, there is yet no economic/policy assessment on major geothermal developments in Ethiopia. In terms of budgetary allocations, about US$ 2 million was slated for consultancy services for the study of the Aluto pilot plant. The rehabilitation works could cost up to US$ 5 million. Originally, the failed 7.2 MWe pilot plant cost US$ 16.2 million. The study could not establish any budgetary allocations made by the utility for the proposed activities under table 6 nor for meeting the envisaged 5% geothermal target. However, it is likely that the costs of rehabilitating the Aluto-Langano plant would be within the reach of government. 3.4.6 Implications for debt relief, socio-economic benefits and other technology

issues Debt relief is to be interpreted in terms of savings of scarce foreign currency spent on purchase of imported oil for operating diesel power plants in the interconnected system (ICS) and self-contained system (SCS) of EEPCO. The total diesel generating capacity within the interconnected system can be taken as 100 MWe to be operated for about 2,500 hours in a year. This would correspond to 250 GWh of electricity production per year. About 83 million litres of diesel oil will then be required, costing about US$ 29 million per year. Over a 10-year period of operation, the total cost would amount to US$ 290 million. With the utilization of geothermal energy, not only will this amount be saved, but also the number of hours of operation in a year can be raised to 7,000 hours. If the diesel plants were to be operated for 7,000 hours, the annual foreign exchange bill would be US$ 81.2, and amounting to US$ 812 million over a ten-year period. Therefore, in sum, the savings and advantages in utilizing geothermal energy are expected to be substantial. On the other hand, electricity as a secondary form of quality energy, independent of its primary source, has tremendous benefits for all socio-economic activities. Water supplies for drinking and services in households, schools, clinics and commercial establishments may need to be pumped into reservoirs for distribution. For such purposes, electric pumps are much cheaper than diesel pumps or solar pumps. Electricity is also needed for lighting, heating and motive power to operate various educational and health establishments. If electricity could be generated at cheaper prices from conversion of geothermal energy, the resultant social and economic benefits would become substantial. Irrigation, which is currently practised at very modest levels, can also be enhanced with use of electric pumps powered by cheaper geothermal electricity. Similarly, the gender dimension of underdevelopment can significantly be improved through electrification programmes based on geothermal power plant installations. 3.4.7 Gender aspects of modern energy services in Ethiopia Women’s participation in modern energy production, delivery and use is marginal in the rural areas of Ethiopia (Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002; World Bank, 1998). In this regard, preliminary findings appear to have established the following four interrelated issues:

(i) Women’s participation in the modern energy-dependent small-scale industries, both in terms of ownership and employment, is insignificant.

(ii) Rural industries are dominated by agro-processing (grain, oil, and coffee mills) which

are usually owned and operated by men. Women therefore are not significant users of modern energy in the small-scale industry sector except as final users of the services. However, at user level, they are the principal beneficiaries – this is the case, for


20

instance, for grain and oil mills where it is estimated that 373 hours per year may be saved with the introduction of grain mills alone. Free time gained from using mechanical mills is usually employed doing other household chores of economic and social nature, including farming, off-farm work, child care and community work. Women’s labour expended on carrying and travelling to and from mill sites also increases. Therefore, on the balance women’s workload may not decrease. For women with opportunities for gainful employment this may be beneficial; for those at the lower income end, time gains may not translate into cash gains and these may not choose to mill their crops using traditional means.

(iii) Modern energy (both electricity and diesel) where available is often produced and

distributed by men (for instance, the micro electric suppliers from diesel engines), except in third level retailing of kerosene and diesel for lighting use.

(iv) Ownership and employment of women in the small-scale service sector, however is

high. Women make up a large share of the work force in food and beverage, lodges, and crafts businesses. Modern energy uses in these establishments are however limited to few hours of lighting (mostly kerosene lanterns but sometimes electric lighting where available). Energy demand/intensity (for cooking) in these establishments is high. Food and beverage houses in particular consume large volumes of biomass fuels. Women’s participation is also high in the provision of traditional energy as haulers of fuel wood supplies.


21

4.0 CChhaalllleennggeess FFaacciinngg DDiisssseemmiinnaattiioonn ooff RREETTss IInn EEtthhiiooppiiaa:: IImmpplliiccaattiioonnss ffoorr CCooggeenneerraattiioonn DDeevveellooppmmeenntt

4.1 Prospects of Biomass Cogeneration Development in Ethiopia The technical concept of biomass cogeneration, which is the process for combined production of heat and electrical energy, is well established. This technology has mostly been practiced in sugar factories (Batidzi, 2000; Mbohwa, 2002). Sugar factories utilize sugar cane refuse, commonly known as bagasse, to generate heat and power to meet energy requirements for crushing, milling and power generation. Sugar factories with high efficiency, and high-pressure systems can produce more electricity to provide excess energy for export to interconnected or isolated grids. Important contributions have been undertaken in Africa from the cogeneration experiences, particularly in Mauritius (Deepchand, 2000). Globally, cogeneration has been promoted in India (Smouse et al, 1998), and in the USA (Zarnibau, 1996), among other countries. 4.1.1 Growth of sugar cane plantations and production in Ethiopia Currently, there are four main sugar factories in Ethiopia, all located downstream of hydroelectric power plants. Three factories (Wonji, Shoa and Metahara) are on the Awash River, below the hydro power plants at Koka, Awash II and III. The fourth factory is 40 km below the Finchaa hydro power plant. Some of the existing facilities (e.g. in Wonji) have very old and inefficient equipment, and rehabilitation works are in planning stages. Shoa Sugar Factory (10 km below Wonji) is in preparation to expand its operations. The newer plants (Metahara, commissioned in the 1970s, and Finchaa in 1998) are equipped with improved steam generation facilities. As shown in table 11, the total cultivation area for sugar cane has been increased by over 146% since the early 1990s. There are plans for expansion subject to marketing opportunities for local consumption and external export of sugar and electricity to the national grid. Table 11 Ethiopia- Area under sugar cane cultivation, yield and cane production (1993/94

- 2002/03) Year Cultivation area ('000ha) Yield (quintal/ha = 100

kg/ha) Sugar production (ton)

1993/94 NA NA NA 1994/95 9.6 1648.1 1582.18 1995/96 9.1 1637.2 1489.89 1996/97 10.0 663.5 660.13 1997/98 NA NA NA 1998/99 21.7 990.19 2086.34 1999/2000 22.43 970.38 2176.57 2000/01 22.99 970.91 2232.12 2000/02 NA NA NA 2002/03 NA NA NA

NA = Not available Source: Central Statistical Authority, CSA, Annual Abstracts for 1998 and 2001 4.1.2 Prospects for cogeneration in Finchaa Sugar Factory (FSF) At this particular factory, energy for thermal processes and electricity supply is obtained from cogeneration available for nine or ten months of sugar season (September to May). The sugar factory is then closed for repair and maintenance while the sugar cane plantations are cultivated in the three-month (June to August) rainy season. There are prospects for expanded cogeneration development using bagasse and biomass fuels for cogeneration. In principle, both EEPCO and Finchaa Sugar Factory (FSF) are in agreement that electricity generated at FSF can benefit both enterprises. FSF has included cogeneration as part of its feasibility study for expansion. At the moment, the factory's cane plantations are spread over The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector

22

40 km2, with continuous water supply received from EEPCO's Finchaa Hydro electric power station. Finchaa-hydro electric power plant (HEPP) has a generating capacity of 138 MW, but currently operates at a capacity of 125 MW; with a water flow rate roughly 27 cubic metres per second (2.33 million cubic metres per day). Electricity is required by many households within proximity to the sugar factory and 5 additional villages are planned for expansion. Energy is also needed for additional pumping stations, not to mention the factory’s expansion. The current generating capacity of the thermal plant in the sugar factory is 2 x 3.5 MW (7 MW). There are plans to raise the generating capacity of the thermal plant to 14 MW (with an increased cogeneration of process steam) within a short time to provide electricity to EEPCO, within 3 to 6 years. Both EEPCO and the management of the sugar factory are interested in finalizing a negotiated power purchase agreement. From its expansion plans, FSF is expected to export 14 - 20 MW to the national grid. On specific unit bases, bagasse consumption and required rates of steam flow are shown in table 12. By the end of 2003, insufficient electrical energy was being generated at either FSF or at Shoa Sugar Factory (SSF) and both plants were importing electricity from EEPCO during the last two to three months of the year. If firm agreements could be reached, networking can be completed during the 2003/2004 fiscal year and to enable FSF generate excess energy that can be exported to EEPCO as of the 2005/2006 fiscal year. With its current capacity (4,000 tons of sugar annually), FSF is actually using a small fraction (maximum 25%) of the water released by the Finchaa hydroelectric power plant. Since FSF is also getting water from streams that feed into the Finchaa River, shortage of water supply is not foreseen in the next ten years of operation and expansion. However, there could be problems in finding land that is suitable for extended cane plantations but this could be mitigated by current plans to use a neighbouring river to extend cane plantations. As long as the energy development plans are coordinated, there will be no shortage of the needed fuel for cogeneration. Besides, it has already been noted that much greater electrical energy could be obtained from cogeneration than from all other combined installations of RETs. In view of this, what needs to be adequately highlighted and urgently addressed are issues of clear and progressive policies on energy for sustainable development and poverty alleviation. Table 12 Finchaa Sugar Factory (FSF): Basic operation and performance data

Source: Worku, 2003

Description Figure Value

Source

1 Ton of cane crushed per hour (hr) 183.22 Nominal design 2 Preventive maintenance in hours (hrs) 180.00 Nominal design 3 Bagasse available from cane per (kg/hour) 51,367.94 Nominal design 4 Moisture as % of bagasse 47.54 Factory Lab. Report 5 Kilogram of steam (kg) per kg of bagasse burnt 2.23 Nominal design 6 Kg/hr of steam generating 1 MWe of electrical power 8,940.00 Feasibility Report 7 Kg of steam generated per litre of fuel oil 11.98 Nominal design 8 Nominal capacity of boilers (2 x 65,000 kg/hr) 130,000.00 Nominal design 9 Temperature of boiler plants in 0C 400.00 Nominal design 10 Pressure of boiler plant in bars 30.00 Nominal design

4.1.3 Prospects for cogeneration in Shoa and Metahara Sugar Factories The SSF is about 7 to 10 km below Wonji Sugar Factory (WSF) and its operations started about ten years after the launching of the Wonji project in the mid 1950s. Both factories are just below the Koka (i.e., Awash I) Hydroelectric Power Plant (HEPP). On the downstream of the Awash River, and well below Awash II and III HEPPs, Metahara Sugar Factory (MSF), the third sugar factory was commissioned in the 1970s. Each plant is thus strategically and The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector

23

conveniently located within short distances from the interconnected grid of EEPCO. At the SSF, there are 2 x 3.2 MW cogenerating units, from which only 2 x 1.42 MW capacity is being utilized for internal processing. The remaining capacity of 2 x 1.8 MW is not being generated, even if the supply of bagasse is sufficiently available. There are also plans to increase sugar cane production and extend generation capacity extending to 18 MW, out of which 10 MW is to be exported.


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5.0 MMeerriittss aanndd DDeemmeerriittss ooff GGeeootthheerrmmaall aanndd CCooggeenneerraattiioonn DDeevveellooppmmeennttss iinn EEtthhiiooppiiaa

5.1 Merits and Demerits of Geothermal Energy Development in Ethiopia Typical to most other power development programmes, there are merits and demerits in geothermal power development programmes. Taking into account the fact that no such project existed in Ethiopia at the time of the study, the following merits and demerits are derived from experience of other countries. 5.1.1 Merits of the 5% geothermal target The main merit is that geothermal energy will benefit the country by adding to the electricity generation capacity within the next ten years. As discussed in the evaluations of the technical viability of geothermal energy, other key expected benefits are discussed below:

(i) Environmentally, geothermal energy is attractive since ecological impacts are minimal. Moreover, prospective geothermal areas in Ethiopia are scarcely populated and the geothermal fluids will be reinjected after power generation.

(ii) Generation of power can be attained with a higher plant factor (70 - 90%) and

with short lead times due to modularity and prefabricated units.

(iii) Geothermal plant lead to direct creation of jobs at the power plant and indirectly through income-generating activities that will benefit from a reliable supply, devoid of load shedding and drought-prone outages, typical of hydro power dependant systems.

(iv) Access and use of relatively cheaper electricity will be enhanced, relieving

women in rural and urban settlements of common and daily drudgery in their domestic and other productive activities.

(v) The national utility can benefit by harnessing an indigenous energy resource

that is located far from proven hydro power resources, while avoiding expensive fossil-fuel based power.

(vi) Geothermal power can be utilized for rural electrification because small

modular units can be installed at reasonable costs and in remote locations. Wherever necessary, automation of plant operations can be achieved using the latest instrumentation and communication links.

(vii) Opportunities for exporting electricity to neighbouring countries at competitive

costs will be enhanced.

(viii) Less land area is needed for geothermal power plant development compared to other electric power plants.

5.1.2 Demerits of the 5% geothermal target On the other hand, there are some drawbacks and risks involved in opting for geothermal power development in Ethiopia. These have been identified, and possible solutions proposed.


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(i) Based on past experiences, there are risks involved in getting reliable consultancy services and completion of reliable construction work in Ethiopia. This can be mitigated by outsourcing from the region or internationally.

(ii) Costs related to drilling and field development could be a big constraint to the geothermal option. At an estimated statistical success rate in drilling production wells below 70%, this could easily dissuade decision-makers from prioritizing geothermal development within a decade. Funding from development partners would be useful in the development of geothermal energy, especially in the area of drilling.

(iii) Financial risks involved in geothermal power development are the most serious

drawbacks unless investments are secured at reasonable interest rates within attractive financing schemes.

In the final analysis, each geothermal plant is unique, therefore each case would have to be treated on its own merit. Unlike conventional thermal plants, geothermal energy is ‘free’ energy that can be harnessed without incurring energy costs and this remains one of its most cost-competitive advantages from a policy maker and end-user point of view. 5.2 Merits and Demerits of Biomass-based Cogeneration in Ethiopia The Agriculture Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy makes agricultural development the corner stone and, engine for all programs on sustainable development in Ethiopia. Included in the plan are poverty alleviation and multi-sectoral socio-economic developments in both rural and urban settlements. Although not fully considered and integrated in the original formulation of the strategy, it is now being recognized that energy is a necessary input for all development activities. In this context, therefore, since biomass-based cogeneration is the result of agro-industrial development, its optimum and efficient uses should be viewed positively in many respects. In addition, it is important to first appreciate the potential merits and demerits that are likely to be associated with cogeneration in Ethiopia. 5.2.1 Merits of Biomass-Based Cogeneration in Ethiopia The key benefit is utilization of agricultural wastes like bagasse for generation of electricity for internal use and for export to an outside grid. Other additional benefits with broad implications on socio-economic development plans and poverty alleviation include:

(i) Joint plan for expansion of sugar plantations and generation capacities of sugar manufacturers and the utility. In the process, both enterprises will have opportunities to share and optimise economic and financial cost evaluations of their end products. The sugar enterprises will compete with global sugar market prices, and the utility will keep its tariff per kilowatt-hour (kWh) within financially competitive limits.

(ii) Optimal use of water from hydro power plants before being drained irretrievably into

gorges.

(iii) Expanded job creation (i.e. for both women and men) in sugar plantations as well as in the sugar factories.

(iv) Increased generation capacity, leading to greater opportunities for job creation in the

national economy.

(v) Poverty alleviation and improvements in socio-economic conditions at regional and national levels through agric-industrial development.


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5.2.2 Demerits of biomass-based cogeneration in Ethiopia Two issues of major concern that need to be resolved as early as possible are reliability and cost considerations. In addition, there are closely related questions of contract specifications for viable technical and regulatory requirements. In a nutshell, the critical issues are:

(i) The reliability issue has to be seen in two parts. First, it is intimately related to the availability of tons of sugar cane that can be harvested in a given year, which in turn depends on availability of plantation land and water. Secondly, there are risk factors that need to be assessed in estimations of gross or primary energy, and final secondary energy to be delivered. In Ethiopia, land and water in hydro power dams belong to the public, thus, plans for expansion in sugar and electricity production by cogeneration can only succeed provided the land acquisition and water supply issues are resolved appropriately.

(ii) Market forces will determine the final sugar prices and electricity tariffs taking into

account the cost for feasibility studies and designs for expansions. However, in practice, experience elsewhere has demonstrated that they can both be decided by government policies on trade and development. The unpredictable character and risks of market forces are the key demerits in this context.

(iii) The issue of contract specifications for viable technical arrangements to facilitate

purchase and resale of electrical energy could again be too complicated in two respects. One drawback is that the national utility (EEPCO) lacks the experience of purchasing power from an independent producer. EEPCO has the monopoly of production, transmission and distribution of electricity. To purchase power for export to the interconnected grid or smaller isolated grids for resale would mark a significant shift in its current mode of operations. So, even if technically viable, there are legal, and managerial hurdles to be addressed before cogeneration can be accepted and promoted in Ethiopia.

(iv) Finally, there are issues of regulatory aspects concerning modes of electricity

production in general, and by cogeneration in particular, for export to the national grid. If unexpected disturbances occur in the interconnected grid, who will be responsible for the consequences? What minimum standards will need to be maintained for reliability of the electricity to be produced and supplied? Will there be need for joint supervisions of generating and sub-transmission facilities? Are there lessons to be learnt and adopted from countries that have been successfully developed and benefited from cogeneration?


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6.0 CCoonncclluussiioonnss aanndd RReeccoommmmeennddaattiioonnss

6.1 Conclusions on Prospects for Geothermal and Cogeneration Energy Development in Ethiopia

Within a wider context of RETs dissemination in Ethiopia, the study focused primarily on prospects and technical viability of two available but hitherto underdeveloped untapped renewable energy sources, namely geothermal energy and biomass-based cogeneration. Key conclusions drawn are summarized in this chapter. 6.1.1 Conclusions on geothermal energy development in Ethiopia

(i) The availability of geothermal energy in Ethiopia has been well established. From a resource base of 700 MW of fairly appraised geothermal potential, it is deduced that up to 100 MWe - 120 MWe can be economically generated within the next ten years. In spite of this huge potential, the energy resource has not been exploited for electricity generation, thanks to lack of the requisite commitment on explorations, modelling studies and well drilling works. Generation of electricity is thus possible from geothermal plants with higher plant factor (80 - 90%) than hydro power plants (60 - 70%).

(ii) The study could not establish the technical reasons behind the failure of operations

at the Aluto geothermal pilot power plant, which has a capacity 5.3 MWe - 7.3 Mwe. Most probably, the engineering and geological problems were not foreseen or handled professionally and properly. The plant was basically designed and commissioned on the basis of data collected in 1985. The study finds it prudent that the pilot plant be repaired and expanded to produce 30 MWe.

(iii) The extension of the pilot project into a 30 MWe power plant in one or two phases

has not been given priority. Activities on gathering additional data from reservoir explorations and drilling are yet to be initiated. Field works and discharge measurements that were required to be handled supported by modelling studies are yet to be undertaken. Professionals (nationals and expatriates) are not actively engaged in rehabilitation and expansion works, except for visual inspections and field assessments.

(iv) The 5% geothermal target has definite viability provided coordinated studies are

conducted in the Lakes Region, Corebetti, Lake Abbaya and Tendaho areas. It can be said that Ethiopia can benefit from geothermal power development for both grid connection and export to neighbouring countries.

6.1.2 Conclusions on biomass-based cogeneration in Ethiopia

(i) In Ethiopia, biomass-based cogeneration using bagasse has been in use within sugar factories since the 1950s. Generation of electricity could have been increased beyond internal use and exported to the national grid. At present, only 7 MWe is cogenerated at Finchaa Sugar Factory (FSF), and 2.4 MWe at Shoa Sugar Factory (SSF), all for internal consumption.

(ii) Sufficient amounts of bagasse could be obtained for generation of electricity with

total power capacity reaching 30 MW. It is projected that roughly 14 MWe and 18 MWe could be obtained from FSF and SSF respectively, providing additional power in the range of 24 MWe - 30 MWe for export to the grid. These estimates will need to be confirmed by appraising definite plans for expansions of the sugar factories. More electricity for export could also be expected from the envisaged expansion and


28

rehabilitation projects at Wonji and Metahara Sugar Factories. To avoid past mistakes, diligent studies are necessary before the planned expansions take place.

(iii) The idea of implementing cogeneration is faced with problems and limitations, the

major one being the uncertainty of free electricity markets to guarantee competitive pricing for exporting surplus electricity to the national grid. Moreover, it is difficult to confirm at the moment whether the national utility is interested in working closely with an independent power producer on viable commercial terms. Additional issues of regulation need be addressed also.

(iv) Cogeneration, although currently practised in sugar factory enterprises, is also yet to

be fully understood and given adequate priority by policy and decision makers as a major application of RETs.

6.2 Policy Recommendations One immediate recommendation is to widen the scope or horizon of renewable energy resources in Ethiopia to include exploitation of hitherto under utilised geothermal resources and expansion of cogeneration plants. The following policy recommendations based on the findings and conclusions of the country energy study for Ethiopia. 6.2.1 Recommendation for policy makers, small and medium-scale enterprises,

financial institutions and the lobbyists (civil societies, NGOs, CBOs) Renewables need to be promoted and disseminated in Ethiopia to provide energy services for income-generating activities for sustainable development and poverty alleviation. This will require harnessing of all proven and available renewable energy resources using imported and locally assembled technologies. Local capabilities for manufacturing and/or partial assembling of major components of RETs must be promoted by small-medium enterprises (SMEs). Gaps in the existing energy policy will first need to be addressed and enacted. It is stressed that except for photovoltaic components and systems, there is ample technical capability with facilities and human resources to partially or wholly manufacture or assemble a variety of RETs. A clear-cut and progressive energy policy that purposely encourages productive energy end use in rural areas using RETs is urgently needed. To this end, modern and affordable energy services will need to be promoted and provided extensively and widely to most regions and in particular rural areas by harnessing all proven and known low cost energy resources. 6.2.2 Recommendation for promoting the utilizations of untapped geothermal energy

resources in the immediate to medium-term It is recommended that proven and existing geothermal resources be given priority and resources comparable to what is currently extended to hydro power development. This will need committed initiatives and greater activities in reservoir drilling and modelling investigations, as well as in feasibility studies with final designs for implementations. It is further proposed that a 5% geothermal target in relation to the national generation capacity in the next ten years is achievable. For this to be done, technical and financial assistances should be sought from international sources. Development goals will need to be devised by aiming at a generation capacity of 100 MW - 120 MW out of a potential of 700 MW. The goal should aim at a viable energy mix comprising immense hydro power resources, geothermal energy and other conventional and renewable energy sources.


29

6.2.3 Needs for rehabilitation and expansion of the Aluto geothermal power plant pilot project

Aluto-Langano geothermal plant will need to be rehabilitated and expanded within a period of two to three years along the following recommendations:

• First the rehabilitation of the failed 7.2 MWe geothermal plant will need to be undertaken by employing 50% conventional conversion techniques for an effective 5 MWe backpressure turbine. Using binary conversion techniques for the low temperature geothermal fluids, the remaining system will also need to be repaired to obtain an effective 3.7 MWe power output.

• By digging three more wells, the production capacity of the geothermal field will

need to be raised to 15 MWe using condensing turbines.

• To speed up technology transfer, systematic training programs will need to be planned and organized locally and externally.

• Finally, concurrent with the repair and expansion works, feasibility studies will

need to be conducted and engineering activities should be carried out to attain a generating capacity of 30 MWe for 30 years.

To create the necessary experience and confidence in operating geothermal power plants in Ethiopia, it will thus be essential to guarantee the viability of the Aluto pilot geothermal plant. Highest priority will continue to be given to the development of hydro power potentials in line with the national energy policy in Ethiopia (MME, 1994). Nonetheless, this study has demonstrated that there are economic justifications and viable possibilities for harnessing the large and untapped geothermal resources provided the necessary process or phases of development are adhered to strictly. It is argued that the success of future geothermal projects in the Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia could depend on the repair and expansion works at the Aluto fields. 6.2.4 Recommendation on need to promote cogeneration development With an Agriculture Development-Led Industrialization strategy, the viability of biomass-based cogeneration exists in the expansion of sugar factories. Therefore, it is recommended that cogeneration be considered as a feasible alternative for production of electricity in Ethiopia. The cogenerated electricity could either be connected to the national grid, or be used for isolated applications in the agriculturally rich regions of the country. Up to 30 MW can be generated for export to the national grid from the Finchaa and Shoa sugar factories. This can contribute to about 6% of total current electricity installed capacity. These two factories have viable and current plans for expansions. More cogeneration possibilities could be considered from other older plants or new plants to be built with multi-scheme hydroelectric power plants. For this to materialize, decision makers and the national utility will need to recognize cogeneration as a feasible source of reliable and cost-competitive electricity. In this study, it was possible to arrive at recommended generating power capacities and draft policy options. The next phase would be to convince policy and decision makers to implement the recommendations towards the development of geothermal energy and biomass-based Cogeneration. In the implementation phase, it is envisaged that cost factors and reliability/quality considerations could be addressed jointly by the power producers (i.e. sugar factories) and the utility.


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8.0 AAppppeennddiicceess

Appendix I: Tables Table 1 Updated data on dissemination of RETs in Ethiopia

Types of RETs Number Disseminated Small hydroelectric plants (0.25 - 1MW) 10-30 Photovoltaics (Total 2000 kW) < 5000 Solar cookers (units) <1000 Solar water heaters (units) <1000 Windmills for water pumping (units) <500 Wind generators (units) None Biogas digesters < 350

Source: Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002 Table 2 Estimates of indigenous energy sources in Ethiopia

Energy source Exploitable reserves Exploited percentage

Hydro power 30,000 MW 1- 2% Solar Energy: Average insolation per day

5.0 - 5.8 kWh/m2

∼ 0% Wind Energy: Average wind speed

3.5 - 5.5 m/s

∼ 0% Geothermal Energy Sources ≥ 700 MW ∼ 0% Wood, Twigs and Branches 1120 Million tons ≥ 50% Agricultural Wastes 15 - 20 Million tons ≥ 30% Natural Gas 75 Billion m3 0% Coal 13.7 Million tons 0%

Source: EREDPC with additional estimates from Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2001 Table 3 Electric power generation by Interconnected System (ICS) and Self-contained

System (SCS) (in '000 kWh) 1999/00 2000/01 Percentage changes Electricity Sources A B C C/A C/B

ICS Hydro power Thermal power Geothermal power Sub-total SCS Hydropower Thermal power Geothermal power Sub-total Total Hydro power Thermal power Geothermal power Grand total

1,631,503.0 4,004.0 19,993.0 1,655,500.0 14,317.0 19,013.0 --- 33,330.0 1,645,820.0 23,017.0 19,993.0 1,688,830.0

1,774,316.5 2,155.7 5,073.5 1,781,545.7 15,512.3 14,600.9 --- 30,113.2 1,789,828.8 16,756.6 5,073.5 1,811,658.9

1,975,210.4 68.0 1,013.5 1,976,291.9 934.9 16,188.0 --- 17,122.9 1,976,145.3 16,256.0 1,013.5 1,993,414.8

21.1 -98.3 -94.9 19.4 -93.5 -14.9 --- -48.6 20.1 -29.4 -94.9 18.0

11.3 -96.8 -80.0 10.9 -94.0 10.9 --- -43.1 10.4 -3.0 -80.0 10.0

Source: Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO), and Annual Report 2001/2002 (Ethiopian Fiscal Year1994), National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), March 2003 Table 4 World Installed geothermal plant capacity totals (1980 to 2005)

Year Installed MWe Interval % Increase 1980 3,887 1980-1985 22.6 1985 4,764

Year Installed MWe Interval % Increase 1985-1990 22.4 1990 5,832 1990-1995 17.2 1995 6,833 1995-2000 16.7 2000 7,974 2000-2005 42.9 2005 11,398

Source: World Geothermal Conference, 2000; Amdeberhan, 2004

Table 5 Installed geothermal generating capacities in the world (2000) Country Installed MWe GWh Generated % of National

Capacity % of National Energy GWh

Australia 0.17 0.9 n/a n/a China 29.17 100.0 n/a n/a Costa Rica 142.50 592.0 7.77 10.21 El Salvador 161.00 800.0 15.39 20.00 Ethiopia 8.52 30.05 1.93 1.85 France 4.20 24.6* n/a 2.00 Guatemala 33.40 215.9 3.68 3.69 Iceland 170.00 1138.0 13.04 14.73 Indonesia 589.50 4,575.0 3.04 5.12 Italy 785.00 4,403.0 1.03 1.68 Japan 546.90 3,532.0 0.23 0.36 Kenya 53.00 383.0 5.06 8.58 Mexico 755.00 5,681.0 2.11 3.16 New Zealand 437.00 2,268.0 5.11 6.08 Nicaragua 70.00 583.0 16.99 17.22 Philippines 1,909.00 9,181.0 n/a 21.52 Portugal 16.00 94* 0.21 n/a Russia 23.00 85.0 0.01 0.01 Thailand 0.30 1.8* n/a n/a Turkey 20.40 119.73* n/a n/a USA 2,228.00 15,470.0 0.25 0.40 TOTALS 7,982.06 49,277.98

*Figures based on an estimated 67% utilization factor Source: World Geothermal Conference, 2000; Amdeberhan, 2004; AFREPREN, 2003 Table 6 World electricity generation from renewable energy resources in 1994

Installed capacity Production per year Energy source MWe % GWh/y % Geothermal 9,000 15.1 66,446 86 Wind 14,000 23.5 13,221 11 Solar 1,550 2.6 266 2 Others 35,000 58.8 3,005 1 Total 59,550 82,938

Source: adapted from WEC Survey of Energy Resources (WEC, 1995), in Fridleifsson,2003; UNEP, 2000. Table 7 Geothermal wells drilled and professional geothermist person-years worked

Country Wells drilled Professional geothermist person-years Australia n/a n/a China n/a n/a Costa Rica 31 n/a El Salvador 28 595.3 Ethiopia 6 50 France n/a n/a Guatemala 4 72 Iceland 8 554 Indonesia 368 1,814 Italy 35 821

Country Wells drilled Professional geothermist person-years Japan 279 7,293 Kenya 103 144 Mexico 66 1,499 New Zealand 27 475 Nicaragua 52 169 Philippines n/a n/a Portugal 9 n/a Russia 78 135 Thailand 47 n/a Turkey 68 n/a USA 50 ~3,500 Totals 1,259 17,121

Source: World Geothermal Conference, 2000; Amdeberhan, 2004; Mbuthi, 2004.

Appendix 2: Geothermal Potentials of Ethiopia Figure 1: The Rift Valley Region in Ethiopia: Total estimated power potential 700 MWe

Figure 2: Site of the pilot geothermal plant (7.2 MWe) at the 30MW geothermal field, Aluto-Langano: operation started in July 1998; plant was stopped in June 2002

Documents

The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s ... · of geothermal energy, it is recommended that the 5% geothermal target can be implemented within the next ten years