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iihs. The ‘political economy’ of India’s Urban Environment: a few thoughts. Aromar Revi New Delhi 25 th March 2011. The 21 st century Indian city: Developing an agenda for Urbanisation. www.iihs.co.in. Mumbai: minimum city…. Slums in the City. Mumbai: a cross-section of Slums. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The ‘political economy’ of India’s Urban Environment: a few thoughts
www.iihs.co.in
Aromar Revi
New Delhi 25th March 2011
The 21st century Indian city: Developing an agenda for Urbanisation
Mumbai: minimum city…
Bharat Nagar and other slums, Raoli Junction Ekvira Nagar, Salt pan land
Ganesh Murty Nagar
Near Airport
Slums in the CityMumbai: a cross-section of Slums
Mumbai’s Slum Services: Water Supply
Bharat Nagar Shanti Nagar
Dharavi Ambedkar Nagar
Chikhalwadi
Mumbai’s Slum Services: Solid Waste
Unhygienic surroundings, Anna Nagar
Garbage dumping place, Andhra AssociationGarbage Bin, Near Khotwadi
Clean Street, Dadabhai Chawl
Mumbai’s formal & informal Land Price differentials
Average developed land and property value by ward, 2005
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Ward Name
Va
lue
(R
s.p
er.
sq
m)
Average developed land value(FSI-1) Rs. per.sq.m
Average property value Rs.per.sq.m
Land value of studied slumsRs. per.sq.m
Colaba
Peddar Road
Ghatkopar
Mulund
Bandra
Mumbai’s (imputed) land market value estimated in 2005 at ~ Rs. 560,000 crores. Distortions in this market primary factor in the huge (55%+) city slum population
Outcome Mumbai: the slum capital of the world
• 7 million+ people living in ‘slums’• Dysfunctional land & housing
markets• Declining quality of public services
& security• Tardy transformation of landuse &
economic functions• Declining quality of governance• Ecological footprints expanding
across the subcontinent• Steady decline in resource-use
efficiency • Increasing polarisation of wealth
this is clearly unsustainable …
Open Defecation: 0.5 million people per day in Mumbai
RECOMMENDED CONCEPT OPTION: MMR 2031
““City Of City Of Islands”Islands”
Comparative long-range Urbanisation trends
(1950-2050)
Urbanisation trends: India, China & the USA (1950-2050)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Urb
an
isati
on
rate
(%
of to
tal p
op
ula
tion
)
Years
World China India USAUN World Urbanisation Prospects, 2007
India: an dramatic opportunity for balanced RUrban development
Global Health Risk forecast by risk factor (2005-2060)
Source: Hughes et. al., 2011, Improving Global Health, Forecasting for the next 50 Years
The Dynamics of Indian Urbanisation
(1951-2031)
1951
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10
India
W. Pakistan
E. Pakistan
Nepal
Tibet
Kolkata(15.5)
Delhi(16.9)
Chennai(7.5)
Bangalore(7.2)
Hyderabad(6.7)
Ahmadabad(5.7)
Pune(5.0)
2011
Mumbai(20)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10
Mumbai(28.6)
Kolkata(22.3)
Delhi(24.4)
Chennai(11.1)
Bangalore(10.6)
Hyderabad(9.9)
Ahmadabad(8.5)
Pune(7.4)
Surat(6.3)
Kanpur(5.1)
2031
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971-2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10
The Growth of India’s Urban Economy(1991-2031)
Rs. 1450 lakh crores
Indian Cities & the global 21st century Sustainability
transition
Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds
21st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds
Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds
Availableonly OneWorld
The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition
This transition will be played out in Indian & Chinese cities
20th century pre-emption of ‘ecological space’ (1900-2004)
Cumulative Carbon emissions over the 20th century potentially pre-empts ecological & hence human development ‘space’ in the global South
∆ Order of Magnitude +
Can Services-sector led growth enable a Sustainability Transition?
Services-sector growth led to very different outcomes in the US, Japan & Germany. China has chosen a conventional manufacturing-export led strategy unlike India
Ecological Footprint vs. HDI (1975)
‘Sustainable Development’
The ‘holy grail’ of national Sustainable Development a HDI of ~ 0.9 & Ecological Footprint of 1 global Ha/per capita
The Sustainability transition will be fought & won in cities
Early 21st century ‘tunnelling through’ will be fought and won in Asian and ‘emerging economy’ urban areas and around new metabolisms, economies and sufficiencies
‘Sustainable Development’
Can China traverse the environmental Kuznets curve; Germany & USA converge without serious Human Development decline India ‘tunnel through’;
or will there be serious international ‘resource’ conflict?
Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005
A new form of urbanisation?
India’s Settlement structure matched to deliver Climate adaptation & mitigation co-benefits
~ 7,800 urban areas and ~ 0.55 million rural settlements in 20011 – the opportunity for decentralised production and consumption systems and economic structure
Revi, 2010
Environmental SustainabilityEnvironmental Sustainability
Social TransformationSocial Transformation
Unified & Robust PolityUnified & Robust Polity
‘Inclusive’ Economic Growth‘Inclusive’ Economic Growth
Reduced Poverty and InequalityReduced Poverty and Inequality
Catalysing five national outcomes by the 2030s
Who really ‘manages’ Urban India?Top Management• MPs & MLAs 5,300• Higher Judiciary 650• IAS & IPS 8,200• CXOs (top 500 corporates) ~ 5,000• NGO leadership ~ 1,750Total 20,900
% educated & trained in urban practice < 5%
Middle Management• Senior Municipal officials ~ 4,000• Senior Engineers ~ 8,000• Urban Planners ~ 2,000Total ~ 14,000
% educated & trained in urban practice < 20%