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A few thoughts about energy scenarios from an industrial perspective. Renaud Crassous, EdF Ecole de Physique des Houches 02/03/2014. What do we need?. 1. A broad view of possible future states of the world (growth, technologies, lifestyles, ressources, environment, institutions, etc.). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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A few thoughts about energy scenarios from an industrial perspective
Renaud Crassous, EdFEcole de Physique des Houches
02/03/2014
What do we need?1. A broad view of possible future states of the
world (growth, technologies, lifestyles, ressources, environment, institutions, etc.)
What do we need?
1. A broad view of possible future states of the world (growth, technologies, lifestyles, ressources, environment, institutions, etc.)
2. A robust assessment of public policies, to build optimal strategies and to build a sound dialog with other stakeholders
Several available methods…
• Narratives – anything that help us to « think out of the box - e.g. Shell storylines (Moutains / Oceans)
• External Quantitative pathways – SRES, World Energy Outlook, RCPs
• Consultants (Oxford economics, CERA, Enerdata, research centers, etc.)
• Models to play with at home• ‘Back of the envelope’ / ‘rule of thumb’
…overwhelming data…
... and puzzling uncertainties?
A ‘reader’s guide’for external scenarios (1/3)
• Three levels of information:(i) Storyline: Explicit/Implicit motivation of the
scenario builder(s)• Energy demand : behavioral change? new acceleration
of efficiency gains ? And/or further decline of industry?• Energy Supply: A new wave of technical revolution that
allow to fulfill growing needs on the long-run(backstop technologies) in spite of finite fossil resources.• Electricity: what role in the future energy mix?
A ‘reader’s guide’for external scenarios (2/3)
(ii) Concrete indicators of feasibility/likelyhoodQuantitative data for the reader to build his own assessment of the likelyhood of the trajectory• Lifestyles (per capita travel time, housing surface, • Resources (e.g. surface of energy crops/ industrial
biomass for energy)• Total costs, investment needs, energy prices
A ‘reader’s guide’for external scenarios (3/3)
(iii) Policies / Conditions of successWhat are the stumbling blocks? What changes and what policies are needed? • Price signals• Innovation strategies• Redistribution, transfers• Skills, human capital
Deep inside: what model?
• Advantages of using a model: – Complex calculation (simulation or optimization)– Consistency (between prices and quantities,
behaviors/technologies, energy/macro)
• Drawbacks:– Huge efforts do not guarantee sound results– Black box => low confidence and strategic use
Models
Two frequent Flaws
• Data: too often neglected– Ready-to-use database (e.g. GTAP for GE models)– Double check : ‘Check-in’ / ‘Check-out’
• Model: misuses ‘out of the definition domain’– e.g. Macroeconometric models = short-run only
An illustration of the necessary check-out of model results:
future energy demand in France
‘Marker Scenarios’ from the national debate (DNTE)
A look behind: sustained efficiency gains in the OECD during the last 40 years
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
PIB
Energie
Electricité
Energie avec élasticité pré-73
Electricité avec élasticité pré-73
Past efficiency gains in buildings
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Consommations observées de chauffage des bâtiments (kWh par m2 et par an)
France
Allemagne
source : Enerdata
For the last 10 years: an apparent stability that hides opposite dynamics
Demand evolution 00-10 (TWh) Total energy Power
Total 0 +40
Transport +10 ~ 0
Industry -70 (-60 due to the economic crisis)
-15 (-10 due to the economic crisis)
Buildings +60 +55 (+40 due to specific uses)
Further efficiency gains: Continuity or disruption?
60-73 73-10 73-85 85-97 97-07
Real GDP growth (per year) 5,7% 2,1% 2,4% 2,1% 2,4%
Total energy demand growth rate (per year)
7,1% 0,4% -0,3% 1,2% 0,5%
Electricity demand growth (per year)
7,2% 3,0% 4,4% 3,0% 1,8%
Elasticity of Energy demand over GDP
1,25 0,18 -0,14 0,54 0,22
Elasticity of Electricity Demand over GDP
1,26 1,46 1,87 1,42 0,77
Power demand: a broad interval of scenarios that is not ‘pure unertainty’
Low scenario: behavioral change, 100% technical potential, strong substitution toward biomass = negative GDP elasticity
Median scenario: close to a « business-as-usual», with current trends going on (decreasing industrial activity, decrease use of electricity in heating, few innovation in new uses) = elasticity tends to 0,2 - 0,4
High scenario: where CO2 reduction comes more from substitutions to low CO2 electricity uses, alongwith ambitious EE gains= elasticity remains around its pre-crisis level, around 0,8
RTE
- Technical change with ‘realistic’ learning curves (asymptotic)- Inequalities, redistributive effects of energy policies -- Intermittency-- New electric uses in buildings-- Debt constraints and investment-- macroeconomic impact of energy prices-- Global treatment of uncertainties
Unsolved issues/ Further needs