The North American Carbon Program: An Overview for AmeriFlux investigators

Kenneth Davis The Pennsylvania State University

Co-chair, NACP Science Steering Group

2011 AmeriFlux Meeting and 3rd NACP All-Investigators’ Meeting1 February, 2011, New Orleans, LA

Origins: The North American Carbon Program (NACP)

Documents, groups, programsin approximate order of origin

• USGCRP – U.S. Global Change Research Plan• CCIWG - Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group• U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (CCSP) - Sarmiento and Wofsy, 1999• CC SSG - Carbon Cycle Science Steering Group• OCB SSC – Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Science Steering Committee• North American Carbon Program (NACP) plan, Harriss, Wofsy et al., 2002.• NACP SSG – NACP Science Steering Group• Ocean Carbon and Climate Program (OCCP)• NACP Science Implementation Strategy (SIS) - Denning et al., 2005• NACP Midcontinent Intensive (MCI) Science Plan - Ogle et al., 2006• CarboNA – U.S., Mexican and Canadian collaborative effort• CCSWG - Carbon Cycle Science Working Group – currently preparing a new

draft of the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science PlanWeb sites for more information:http://www.nacarbon.org - North American Carbon Program web sitehttp://www.carboncyclescience.gov - U.S. Carbon Cycle science web site

US Carbon Cycle Science Plan Goals, 1999

1. Quantify and understand the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.

2. Quantify and understand the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean.

3. Determine the impacts of past and current land use on the carbon budget.

4. Provide greatly improved projections of future atmospheric concentrations of CO2.

5. Develop the scientific basis for societal decisions about management of CO2 and the carbon cycle.

Origin of the NACP

Sarmiento and Wofsy, 1999

1. Develop quantitative scientific knowledge, robust observations, and models to determine the emissions and uptake of CO2, CH4, and CO, the changes in carbon

stocks, and the factors regulating these processes for North America and adjacent ocean basins.

2. Develop the scientific basis to implement full carbon accounting on regional and continental scales.

3. Support long-term quantitative measurements of sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, and develop forecasts for future trends.

NACP Goals

NACP Plan, 2002

NACP Questions1. What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent

oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (“Diagnosis”)

2. What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (“Attribution”)

3. Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (“Prediction”)

4. How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers? (“Decision support”)

Denning et al, 2005. NACP Science Implementation Strategy

Operational Phase of the NACP

The NACP Plan called for an operational phase of NACP in which the observational and analysis infrastructure would be available, as a “legacy” to “produce periodic, reliable estimates of net sources and sinks for CO2, CO, and CH4 and of changes in carbon stocks.”

A (flux tower PIs) guide to the NACP

The NACP is largely stone soup1. A plan was developed.

2. Agencies adopted portions of that plan.

3. Funds were devoted to requests for proposals that accomplished subsets of that portion of the message (sometimes calling out NACP explicitly, other times not).

4. People meet and talk to coordinate work, report progress and make additional recommendations (e.g. here, science steering groups, conferences and workshops).

5. New folks get entrained.

6. Plans get revised and updated.

7. Go back to (2) and repeat.

You can have a significant impact on the development of the NACP.

NACP Approachfollowing the NACP SIS, 2005

Observations

Observations & Experiments Science Results Estimates-Uncertainties

Predictive Models

Experiments

Diagnostic Models

Model-Data Fusion

Dynamic Maps

Decision Support

diagnosis

prediction

attribution

NACP Structures• NACP Office• NACP Data Policy• NACP Science Steering Group

None of these are sources of research funds. They exist to facilitate progress on the NACP Plan and Implementation Strategy, and those are in support of the US Carbon Cycle Science Plan. They are supported by the Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group (CCIWG).

Data management is distributed. There is no NACP data center. The MAST-DC (Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center) exists to support synthesis efforts.

Who is the NACP?• Lists of NACP investigators and projects is maintained by

the NACP Office (Griffith et al).• Anyone can join the NACP.• Any funded investigator can request that his/her project

be affiliated with the NACP.• Some program managers may require that your project be

affiliated with the NACP, and will “report you,” when funded, to the NACP Office.

• In this way, the NACP investigators and projects lists have been developed.

• The NACP Office, SSG and the CCIWG try to foster a cohesive NACP investigators’ community.

What are some current NACP activities?(syntheses)

• NACP synthesis projects+ Regional

+ Site-Level

+ Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

+ Coastal

+ Disturbance

+ MCI (Midcontinent Intensive regional study)

+ MsTMIP (Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project)

Info on all can be found at www.nacarbon.org.

Most of these are “volunteer” activities with modest funding to bring together existing NACP products and investigations.

Two are more “fully funded” syntheses projects.

New activities are emerging. Check out the “side meetings” at this gathering.

Some activities are certainly missing from this list. Let us know.

How can I join or create a synthesis project or intensive?

• Contact the coordinators of an existing synthesis activity to contribute.

• Suggest new NACP activities if you see a need.

• Watch for calls for proposals that invite NACP research ideas.

The future of the NACP

A new US Carbon Cycle Science Plan is in preparation! A draft is available for review. Review comments are due by 15 February. See http://www.carboncyclescience.gov.

Marching orders for the next decade.