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The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Lara Srivastava can be contacted at [email protected]
ITU New Initiatives Programme DirectorStrategy and Policy Unit
International Telecommunication Union
The network of the The network of the future: future:
WhatWhat’’s over the s over the horizonhorizon
Lara Srivastava
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Lara Srivastava can be contacted at [email protected]
BillingAsia2006,13 March 2006, Shanghai, China
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industry transitionsfrom static market environments to dynamic fast-paced innovationfrom low-speed to high-speedfrom “divergence” to “convergence”from local to globalfrom fixed to mobilefrom sometimes-on to always-onfrom one medium to multimediafrom distinct to bundled
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growth of multimedia services
Multimedia services being delivered on a variety of platforms– TV– PCs– Mobile phones– PDAs…
In a variety of ways (thanks to high-speed network infrastructure)– Live streaming– Downloads, e.g. peer-to-peer
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trends towards the ubiquity of networks
In addition, the availability of technology is on the rise– 2 billion mobile phones– 1 billion internet usersDevelopments under way to take this further:– Towards universality, i.e. bridging the
digital divide and providing access for “anyone” and “everyone”
– Towards ubiquity, i.e. creating a network available “anytime” and “everywhere”
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some current challenges for industry players
Declining ARPU/average revenue per subscriber– e.g. mobile operators
Saturation of traditional markets Introduction of new services and channels for delivery Multiple services, multiple providers– Different environments, different notions of
business strategy and service delivery
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Ongoing shift to all-IP networks
Trend away from circuit-switched networks to packet-based networksNext generation networks will have the capability of carrying voice, data, video, multi-media over the same networkUsers will be connected through multiple access networks based on different technologies (optical fibre, coaxial cables, and WLAN, 3G networks)– but all networks will speak the same
language, the language of “IP”
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Some characteristics of Next Generation Networks (NGN)
Packet-based transferDecoupling of service provision and network– creates opportunities for those service providers, who
do not own content, to offer content/applications Broadband capabilities with end-to-end QoS, transparencyInter-working with legacy networksGeneralized mobility Unrestricted access by users to different service providersUnified service characteristics, i.e. perception of “same service” by users
Source: ITU Study Group 13
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NGN - The third wave?
BroadbandServicesBroadbandServices
User-CentricBroadbandServices and NGN
User-CentricBroadbandServices and NGN
New ConnectivityServices
New ConnectivityServices
20051995 2000 2015(e)
New Services
Adoption
Mobile VoiceLANInternet…
Mobile VoiceLANInternet…
DSLWi-Fi3G…
DSLWi-Fi3G…
Any device, anyconnectivitySingle Subscription& AuthenticationConsistent personalizationSynchronozation
Any device, anyconnectivitySingle Subscription& AuthenticationConsistent personalizationSynchronozation
A fragmented userexperience…A fragmented userexperience…
Source: Adapted from Souheil Marine, Alcatel
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Ubiquitous Networks and Ubiquitous Computing
Ubiquitous computing– Embedding computational power into everyday
items – “intelligence” moves to the edges
• e.g. smart objects/structures, intelligent appliances
Ubiquitous networks– always-on, anyone, everywhere network access– Giving network access to “anything”– In this way, everything becomes ‘networked’– NGN networks will most likely be the
core/backbone infrastructure for deploying ubiquitous networks
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Making networks ubiquitous: 4 key technological enablers
Tagging Things: RFID– enables real-time identification and tracking
Sensing Things: Sensor technologies – enables detection of environmental status
and sensory information
Thinking Things: Smart technologies (e.g. those enabling smart homes, smart vehicles etc.)– build intelligence into the edges of the network
Shrinking Things: Nanotechnology– makes possible the “networking” of smaller and smaller
objects
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tomorrow’s radio: everywhere
densest radio systems in the world are terrestrial radio and cellular – the ratio of radios to humans is nearing 1 to 1…but we are soon entering a new era:– in which this ratio could exceed 1000 to 1radios would be all around us, becoming “ambient” in the environment … thereby radically transforming technology access– Making it “indistinguishable” from
daily life
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growth of radio & sensors
Adoption of wireless sensor networks (2004 -2010)
0
1
10
100
1'000
10'000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sales
Price
Units
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things, adapted from Harbor Research
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USD millions
supply chain
other
transport
pharmaceutical
retail
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things, adapted from Juniper Research
RFID Growth (Western Europe)
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the changing nature of cyberspace?
Research networkElectronic
Mobile internet (i-mode, GPRS,
3G…)
Portable internet (Wi-Fi etc..)
Embeddedinternet objects…
“Internet of
Things”
The Web
Elite network People to people People to machines
Machine-to-machine or object-to-object
Source: Adapted from ITU Ubiquitous Network Societies Workshop, Presentation Materials,“Ubiquitous Network Societies and their impact on the telecommunication industry”, April 2005
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intelligence for “smart spaces”
Source: Ubiquitous ID Center
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many players, many revenue streams, many bottom lines
OAT Systems
Science & Research
M anufacturing
Service provisioning
Netw ork operation
MIT (ex. Auto-ID center)
Standards EPCGlobal
MasterCard
TescoChang Gung
Memorial Hospital
In tel ResearchLab Berkeley
M obile paym ents via FeliCa chip in
Japan
Lead users
Exam ples of specific applications
Patients RFID w ristbands,
Taiw an, China
NTT D
oCoM
oPrivate Investors & National In itiatives
Sony
SW, System integration
R&
DPr
oduc
tion
Mar
ket McDonalds
NFC Forum
US DARPA
Great Duck Island Habitat M onitoring in
the US
AIT RFID
JCB Corporation
SAXA
Item -level tracking across the SCM in the
UK
ISO/IEC 14443
HibikiConsortium
Precision Dynamics
Hew
lett-Packard
National u-initiatives
AP
T(AS
TAP
)
APEC TEL
PayPass at M cDonald’s restaurants
in the US
Texas Instruments
Versatile
Verifone
ISO /IEC 18000
AD
T Security
Services
ThinkM
agic
Tyco Retail Solutions
Group
IBM
B
usiness C
onsulting
In tel
University of California, Berkeley
Bluetooth
consortium Z igBee Alliance
Digital Eastern, Melexis,
In tersema (sensors)
Jet Propulsion Lab
Hughes (satellite
connection)
Georgia Technology
institute
EU Framework
programDARPA
Innovision
Nokia
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things
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Billing: what we’re used toTypically per-minute– e.g. traditional telephony – e.g. dial-up internet services Each network has a bill – separate bills for telephony, cable TV, internet
etc…Separation of network billing from service billing – e.g. you might pay your ISP for the network
and subscribe to content providers (e.g. the Economist) separately through your credit card
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A new era of complex relationships
Telecommunications moving away from a pure “pipes only” infrastructure-based industry (gone are days of POTS or POGS)What’s carried on the pipes is adding more and more valueInformation and content now being brokered by growing number of players.. meaning that operators need to manage a large number of relationships with content developers and distributorse.g. through revenue-sharing agreements with providers
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(many chefs – one soup)
Source: CSG Systems
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and entirely new channels: Case in Point – the 3rd wave of VoIP
1995-1999: – “Internet phone”, offered primarily over the public
Internet (e.g. FreeWorld, Dial-up, DialPad)2000-2002: – “VoIP”, offered as discounted telephony over private
IP-based networks (e.g. Net2Phone, iBasis)– Collapse of dot.com bubble left many VoIP companies
struggling as incumbent PTOs also offered VoIPservices or acquired VoIP operators (e.g. China Telecom, Teleglobe)
2003-Present:– “Voice over broadband”, offered as free/flat-rate chat
+ discount calls to PSTN/mobile users (e.g. Vonage, Skype)
– “Corporate IP”, as users shift both data and voice to a unified IP platform
– Voice over IP over mobile…
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dilemma for today’smobile operators in particular
In a world moving to all-IP and one in which where radios might outnumber humans:
Do they stick with per minute billing but be stuck with today's penetration/usage levels (or less as VoIPover mobile makes itsmark)
Or should they move to flat-rate pricing buthope that new revenue streams will make up for the lost revenue?
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So how to evolve billing? How to move away from device-dependent billing?How to bill for object-to-object communications?How to make billing scalable?How to ensure multi-vendor, multi-service data collection and mediation?How to foster value-based billing?– flexible enough to charge in many different manners
(by volume, by content type, by “event”…)?
How to promote customized billing?– e.g. parent’s who’d like pre-pay billing for teenagers?
Are we moving to the ONE “ubiquitous” user bill, for the ubiquitous network over the horizon?
a journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step…
-- Chinese proverbChinese proverb
