THE MARKET TIMING REPORT - worldcyclesinstitute.com

!Key turning point dates for the S&P500, Crude Oil, Gold, EURUSD, Dollar Index !

!!“Education is our passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to the people who

prepare for it today.” !

www.cyclesanalysis.com © Cycles Analysis Limited 2016

1st February 2016! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Volume 3 Edition 2

THE MARKET TIMING REPORT

Key Dates!23rd to 25th February

This month we are going to start the letter from left field. We had a very interesting teleconference with a major personality in the economic and financial arena. A household name. As well as the usual brief that we provide him and his team, he asked for a cycles view on the forthcoming US Elections. We thought you may be interested in our view based on mathematical cycles!!!The American political arena is being dominated by the antics and rhetoric of “The Donald.”!So much so that we in UK are becoming fascinated with his behaviour. It's a soap opera in the making.!!

It's fair to say that we have a vested interest. After all, he did claim he was going to invest $1 billion in Scotland making the best golf course in the world. Very little of this has gone into helping the local economy and much of it has been spent on destroying the splendid coastline of this nature rich area.!!Not only this, following his comments on Muslims, he claims that parts of 'radicalised' London are no-go areas for terrified police.!!Really? Have you been here Mr Trump? Are you qualified to tell us what’s going on at our own doorsteps?! !

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This twitter post below sums it up. So, 578,065 Brits signed a petition to ban Mr Trump from our nation! This number triggers an alert and this means that the matter had to be debated in Parliament. It was!!So can this Billionaire showman lead a great superpower?!Does he have the skills? Or is he a bully and a thug who stirs up frenzy?!Is he the ultimate marketer? After all his entire life has been in sales. Or is he a shrewd calculating strategist?!Let’s look at the evidence. So he is going to build a wall, he says.!Mexico will be made to pay for it?!How will it be implemented? No mention – same as with most of his i deas . No ment ion o f any implementation. Anywhere. But think about this. Mexico provides cheap illegal labour. Illegal Mexican migrants

marginalize the American working class a proportion of which is African American. So he wins their vote as well as the support of all the other blue collar workers. He upsets the lady from Fox News. Then he refuses to attend the Iowa event because she is there. The way I understand it, Fox News is the bastion of the Republicans. So he is now winning the moderate Democrats over. There is a master strategist behind this campaign. Out of the cities, many love him. It’s ironic. They all aspire to be him but they have no money. They are the diametric polar opposite of “The Donald.” Probably folk he wouldn't have cared one iota about not that long ago. They love the war cry “Make America Great Again.” But there is still no mention of HOW he will do this. He is certainly bringing America into an interesting place! What if we in the UK decide to ban him?? Highly unlikely, but others have been banned for saying even less. How would that work for international relations?!An interesting conundrum. Here is where our cycles work kicks in. As we approach the end of March, the cycles turn down for him. His popularity will drop and he will face many challenges. Unexpected information will come to light. It won’t help him. !!Lets see how he extricates himself from that. !


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The next person moving into the White House, will be President Number 45. 45 is a number that brings challenge and change. We can’t discount Mr Trump. He himself may be the cause AND effect of that challenge! He has to get past April to stay in the race. Further down the road in Spring 2017, his cycles suggest a huge change in wealth. That is not consistent with presidency! Maybe this campaign is just a big ploy to build up his brand?!On the Democrat side, Hilary Clinton makes steady progress but will struggle in the key month of July when key decisions and nominations are made. The man whose cycles are looking good then is Bernie Sanders. He will be in an up wave.!July will be challenging month - we have MAJOR market cycles coming in then - as readers of last months edition will be aware of. Remember we mentioned the week of 8th July 2016 as being a major cycle date for the markets?!Returning to the Republicans, both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have reasonable cycles running but neither are stellar. Late Spring will most likely see the announcement of a new candidate. Former mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg. He has absolutely stunning cycles that accelerate all the way into next January and beyond. He himself tries to discount himself, stating reasons such as being too short in stature and being from the wrong background to be president. Neither of these excuses prevented him from being a reasonable mayor of “The Big Apple.” His worth is considerably more than that of the other billionaire in the race. He is proven to be equipped with the skills and has a track record. As we move towards the end of the decade, Bloomberg’s cycles become challenging. Such a challenge could easily tie in with the difficult economic and financial cycles we see as being in effect then! (Again, remember, we briefed you on the 1837 Land Panic cycle that will be hitting the USA shortly). This all ties up with potential residency at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20500, United States.!So former Mayor Bloomberg is, according to mathematics, the most likely successful candidate IF the Republican party win! And it’s a big IF!!When we look at the cycles of the parties themselves the picture is not so clear. Cycles at present, only just favour the Democrats at the time of writing. But it’s very close and Bloomberg is holding the best hand of cycle cards. !As mentioned earlier the next leader will be the 45th president of the United States. This is not going to be any ordinary term. Massive change is afoot.!America, you live in interesting times.!We continue to watch, with trepidation, from the safety of our armchair over three thousand miles away.!!We understand that this piece moves away from the core of market timing, but this information may be useful to you. If you want more of this, then let us know. If you want less of it - also let us know. We are here to serve you!!


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© Cycles Analysis

How Did The Cycles Unfold?!Last Month’s Report Card Excerpts

Once again the !COVER SAYS IT ALL!

MTR Got It RIGHT Yet Again!

We Did Warn You!

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How Did The Cycles Unfold?!Last Month’s Report Card Excerpts

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FIVE REASONS FOR A RALLY!How To Use The Market Timing Report!

The key benefit of this report is to help you time markets and thus enhance your own trading systems. We shall run you through some techniques and show you how the our super powerful cycles provide the confirmation required. The use of Fibonacci retracement levels can be somewhat subjective. You never know WHICH level the market will stop at. Especially when emotions are running high and markets are operating in “FEAR” mode. New subscribers often ask as to how use the contents of the MTR effectively. Here is a tutorial together with a series of TOP TIP TECHNIQUES that could be worth many times the price of this letter. This is also how we are currently trading the present move. !As we know there is presently much intervention in the western stock markets. Due to this we have found the Dow Jones Transportation Index to be very effective for forecasting. It seems to suffer the least from manipulation. !The first chart shows that the 50% support level of the range depicted had been reached. How did we know that the market would not stop at the .382 level or continue to the 0.618 level?

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The interesting point is that this .382 level is pretty much coincident with the 50% level shown on the previous chart. This is always a sign of strong support, but again in a fear driven market, how do we know that the market will stop there? !!Let’s add the next piece of evidence.

Reason 2!!We shall answer that previous question shortly. The next chart shows the market reaching the 0.382 level of a much larger range—as circled.

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Reason 3!!We place an Andrew’s Pitchfork and we see that the maker has reached the lower parallel. However, the median line did not hold strong. So we would be concerned about the lower parallel holding too. Especially as everyone is talking about a crash at this time.!!

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Reason 4!!This is a really effective technique that is not known that well. It is based on the little understood Gann principle of Seven Times The Base. There is no benefit in going into this in any detail. Here is what you need to know. You need to know to measure the first impulsive move down in any trend change. You then project that price amount down. This gave us the low to the tick. This, by the way, is how we were able to tell you what the exact high price on the Nasdaq 100 Index was going to be by projecting upwards. Regular readers first saw this in print in January 2015 and the price was hit to within the tick on 11th November 2015 and again in December 2015. Forecasting exact prices can be done with this technique. A close friend of mine runs a fund well in excess of $10 billion. He does very well with his variation of this technique.

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Reason 5!!This is the most important one - all the previous techniques can give a series of potential levels, but you can never be sure which one is correct, especially when either bullish greed or bearish fear are gripping the markets. This is the use of cycles derived from our Profit Finding Oracle System. IF A TIME CYCLE IS IN and a market is trading on a level THEN THAT LEVEL WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD and act as a reversal point. This is the main value of the timings provided in this report.!On the chart below, you will see a histogram. The major peaks are cycled in red and THESE CORRESPOND with significant turning points as shown by the vertical red lines. The thickest red line towards the right corresponded with our major published cycle for the third week of January, hence, we knew that this would be a major turning point. THIS PROVIDES VALIDATION for the other four reasons.

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Putting it all together we knew that the down move was likely to stop during the third week of January. This was published in both out December and January editions. !The chart below shows all the techniques applied on one chart. !!We hope this tutorial is useful especially to you new subscribers who are joining us all the time. !Try out these methods using your own charting software and system and combine this with the cycles published in the Market Timing Report.

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S&P500!!As mentioned last month a very strong cycle existed for the last week of January. The market turned up. There is a low strength weekly turn point mid month February. If this move down that we have seen at the beginning of January is impulsive then we may see a change mid month. !The 10 year cycle sells off into the 7th Feb then rallies into the end of the month.!The 20 year cycle rallies up into the 12th February then is sideways to down.!The 30 year cycle rallies all the way up through the month of February. !The 60 year cycle rallies into 6th February then sells off into 14th February prior to commencing a major rally into March 23rd. This is a significant pattern to be aware of. Weekly cycles are showing for the week of the 23rd March. The timing points could match but the cycles may invert.!Seasonally, since 1985, there is a 71% probability of the S&P500 trading higher on 16th February than on 1st February. See chart on next page. Caution required as we are in major volatility.!!!Key turning point dates derived from PFO Histograms:!1st February!4th February!12th February!23rd to 24th February !!!Looking ahead into March - These dates are provisional and will be updated in the next report as the cycles are fine tuned. They may also change so you must read the next edition. Other turn point dates will be added in due course. !1st March!5th March!14th 15th March!23rd March- ties in with weekly cycle!!!!!

!

!!!!!


3rd Feb 10th Feb 21 Feb

68.2% !Up

68.2%!Up

72.2%!Down

Daily statistical probabilities of note since 1985

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!

!!!!!!!!!

www.cyclesanalysis.com [email protected] © Cycles Analysis Limited 2016

The chart above shows that, seasonally, since 1985, there is a 71% probability of the S&P500 trading higher on 16th February than on 1st February. As mentioned, this needs to be treated with caution due to

the massive down move that we started the year with.

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CROSS CORRELATING MARKETS!Our many years of research show that every now and then markets cross correlate. When this occurs, we have a high degree of probability in terms of cycle turning points.

Crude Oil!The message was really clear. Crude oil had strong cycles for the week ending 29th January.

As a macro cycle also insisted, this is likely to be a significant turn point in place despite common press reports suggesting oil heading much lower.!

The 10 year cycle heads down into 16th February the heads up into the of the month.!The 20 year cycle makes a high on the 22th February and falls into the end of the month.!The 30 year cycle collapses all the way through January. There is no clear plan from these decennial cycles this February.!!Key turning point dates derived from PFO Histograms:!4th to 5th February!11th February!23th to 25th February - ties in with 20 year cycle!!Looking ahead into March - These dates are provisional and will be updated in the next report as the cycles are fine tuned. They may also change so you must read the next edition. Other turn point dates will be added in due course.!!10th March!15th to 17th March!!!Bias Probabilities of Note since 1984!!!! !!!!


22nd Feb 24th Feb 26th Feb

71.4%!Up

69.6%!Up

69.6%!Up

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Gold!The cycle for the week ending 29th January 2016 dominates February. The trend is likely to continue throughout February. Odds favour a high in place last few days of January. As mentioned last month, April 2016 will see superstructural gold cycles especially at the beginning of the month. !The 10 Year cycle sold off into 8th February then rallied into the end of the month.!The 20 Year cycle made a major high on 2nd February and sold off into March.!The 30 Year cycle sells off into the 12th February and then rallies into the 25th February. !The 40 Year cycle moves sideways throughout the month of February.!The decennial cycles provide no clear clues.!!!Key turning point dates derived from PFO Histograms:!!3rd to 5th February!13th to 14th February !23rd to 24th February!!Looking ahead into March - These dates are provisional and will be updated in the next report as the cycles are fine tuned. They may also change so you must read the next edition. Other turn point dates will be added in due course.!!2nd March!10th March!20th March!30th March!!!!High Probability Directional Bias dates since 1975 are!!

!!!!!!!!!!!


15th Feb 16th Feb

81.8% !Down!

68.2% !Up

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!Gold cont!!!

!!!!!!!!!


The chart above shows that gold is making a 50% retracement (around 1117.8) of the move down. It has also caught the median line of the

pitchfork. Given that there is a major cycle the last week of January and also given that the long turn trend is down, the odds favour a

resumption of the downtrend.

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Dollar Index!!!The 10 year cycle sees the market make a high on 16th February then sells off into March.!The 20 year cycle goes down to 27th February.!The 30 year cycle declines sharply from the 4th February into March.!The 40 year cycle falls into the 11th February when it makes the low for the year and then rises very strongly.!There is no clear correlation this month in these decennial cycles.!Since 1972 the Dollar Index has traded higher on the 16th January 72.7% of the time than it was trading on the 4th January.!!Key turning point dates derived from PFO Histograms:!5th February!Weekend of 13th February!22nd to 23rd February!!Looking ahead into March - These dates are provisional and will be updated in the next report as the cycles are fine tuned. They may also change so you must read the next edition. Other turn point dates will be added in due course.!!1st to 2nd March - major!14th March!22 March - ties in with weekly cycles!!Statistical probabilities based on data since 1985 are shown above. These should always be treated with caution.!!


1st Feb 9th Feb 16th Feb 21st Feb

70.0% Up 81.0% Down 70% Down 70% Up

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EURUSD!!There are no strong weekly cycles in February on the EUR. However, the last week of January did house a very strong weekly cycle. It is possible that the downtrend is about to resume. Await confirmation - this is not clear at this time of writing.!!The 10 year cycle shows that the EURUSD was down into the 27th February when the major low for the year was formed. !!Key turning point dates derived from PFO Histograms:!4th to 5th February!Weekend of 13th February!23rd February - significant !!!!Looking ahead into March - These dates are provisional and will be updated in the next report as the cycles are fine tuned. They may also change so you must read the next edition. Other turn point dates will be added in due course.!2nd March!Weekend of 5th March!14th March!24th to 26th March!! !!High Probability Bias Dates - treat with caution due to limited sample size dating back to 1999.!!


9th Feb 16th Feb 17th Feb 18th Feb

72.7.%!Up

66.7%!Up

75.0%!Up

76.9%!Down

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EURUSD cont.!

!!!


Since 1999 there is a 70.6% probability that the EURUSD will trade lower on the 14th February than on the 3rd February based on annual seasonality. The sample size is relatively small so treat with caution.

Seasonal Bias!3rd February to 14th February!

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!!!!!!!

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US Equities Crude Oil Gold Dollar Index EURUSD

1 Feb x

2 Feb x

3 Feb x

4 Feb x x x

5 Feb x x x

6 Feb

7 Feb

8 Feb

9 Feb

10 Feb

11 Feb x

12 Feb x

13 Feb x x

14 Feb x x

15 Feb

16 Feb

17 Feb

18 Feb

19 Feb

20 Feb

21 Feb

22 Feb x

23 Feb x x x x

24 Feb x x x x

25 Feb x

26 Feb x

27 Feb

28 Feb

29 Feb

Summary of Timing Point Dates

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As mentioned in last months editorial we have been approached about some very rare stock market books that are now for sale.!!Bernard Jones was a prominent stockbroker in the City of London. He was also a founder member and fellow of The Society of Technical Analysts. Alex Jones, his son writes:! !Dad started off his career at the age of 22 working as a Blue Button on the floor of the London Stock Exchange. His career really took off in the early 1970s when he became one of the first brokers to start selling stock to institutional clients. It was also around this time that he became fascinated in and collecting books by W.D. Gann.! !A successful career blossomed, but it took until the mid-1980s when dad became famous in his own field. It is said in the City of London that Bernard Jones practically invented the field of Technical Analysis.! !Based on the theories of W.D. Gann (and others) he hit the headlines when he confidently predicted, against the rest of the market, the date and day of the so-called "Big Bang" stock market crash of 1987. In a now infamous front page The Investor’s Chronicle labelled him “Bernie the Bear.” If only they had all listened. ! !Always the pioneer Dad went on to help set up The Society of Technical Analysts, and gave a number of talks on the subjects he was most passionate about: W.D. Gann, The Big Bang and The South Sea Bubble to name but a few.! !Bernard officially retired in 1994 but continued working and collecting right up until he sadly passed away in the United Kingdom in the early hours of 9/11. Even in death Bernard Jones knew how to grab attention.! !His legacy was a book collection which reflected his passion for the capital, financial and bond markets, comprising some 3500 books on the subject, including astrology and the occult. He also kept a detailed diary and regularly noted his thoughts.! !The majority of the books were sold off in 2014 but for sentimental reasons the family decided to retain the W.D. Gann part of the collection along with all of Dad’s notes and diaries.! !It is this that the Jones family has reluctantly agreed to consider selling. They are held very dear in our hearts and it would take a lot for the family to part with them.!


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Here are photos of some of the books that are available for sale. !!!

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!!!!!! !

! !! ! !!!


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SUMMING IT UP!!"The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.” Eccl 1.9!

Our intermediate cycles for the third week of January came in right on cue. Whilst we have some lesser cycles coming in mid February, the next key ones appear around the third week of March. However all five instruments have clear turn point cluster dates this month as can be noted from the summary grid.!!You will have seen a piece on the highly respected late Bernard Jones and his library collection. If you are interested in seeing a full list of the vast array of books that are for sale please contact his son Alexander Jones by email [email protected]. Alex will furnish you with an excel spreadsheet. There are many excellent books listed across a wide range of categories with some highly esoteric titles being available. Several of these books are very collectible and there appear to be some first editions too. Please verify for yourself the authenticity of any book and its value.

We have no commercial interest in this sale and are just trying to help a friend out as well as provide you, our valued readers, with what is potentially a very rare opportunity.!!Work is well on its way for a new website complete with membership area and further resources. We are still a few weeks away from completion but will keep you informed.! !As ever, I look forward to being of service to you and we thank you for your custom for which we are most grateful. Our success comes only through your success.!! Andrew Pancholi!

! ! 31st January 2016!!www.themarkettimingreport.com!!!!


DISCLAIMER:!

Cycles Analysis Ltd is a research company. The information contained herein is for general education purposes and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations to any person or entity. Any reference to a transaction, trade, position, holding, security, market, or level is purely meant to educate readers about possible risks and opportunities in the marketplace and are not meant to imply that any person or entity should take any action whatsoever without first evaluating such action(s) in light of their own situation either on their own or through a professional advisor. !

If a person or entity does not believe they are qualified to make such decisions, they should seek professional advice. The prices listed are for reference only and are in no way intended to represent an actual trade, entry price or exit price conducted by Cycles Analysis Ltd, portfolios managed by any entity affiliated with Cycles Analysis Ltd or any principal or employee of Cycles Analysis Ltd . This information is not a substitute for professional advice of any nature, including tax, legal, and financial. While we believe the information contained herein to be accurate, all numbers should be verified by the reader through independent sources. Trading securities, options, futures, or any other security involves risk and can result in the immediate and substantial loss of the capital invested.!

Subscriptions!

£995 per year/12 issues. For information on Fund Management Services or full institutional consultancy services please contact [email protected]. We also investigate space weather, seismology and vulcanology and have services available.!

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WHAT WE DO!Several readers had made enquiries so here is an overview of our methodology

Cycle Forecasting !Regardless of whether you are a fundamental trader or a technical trader, the timing of trade entry is absolutely critical to your profitability. After more than 20 years of research and study of cycles, our proprietary software generates turning points in different time frames.This is a complex process. The purpose of this monthly letter is to provide you with an overview of critical time zones when trend changes are highly likely. You do not need to worry about the complexity as we take care of this for you. For the most part trend changes are reversals but from time to time accelerations can occur. !!We also combine this with seasonality - a powerful and commonly used system. We enhance this with out proprietary forecasting models. We are not infallible but do believe that this information, especially when combined with other techniques can give you a VERY SIGNIFICANT EDGE. This research looks at very many aspects of forecasting and we leave no stone unturned. Our super macro cycles will go back thousands of years, however more relevant economic cycles review events over the last centuries. !!A simple example of this is shown by the 100 year cycle and its half cycle of 50 years. Historians amongst you - and be aware that most of the world’s greatest traders and fund managers have studied history, will be aware of the massive panic of 1857. This was the biggest economic meltdown in the modern world with both the USA and Europe being severely hit. The railroad boom just peaked, The Ohio Life Insurance and Trust in Cincinnati failed and down came the house of cards. Credit dried up overnight. A major depression kicked in. Well 50 years later credit suddenly dried and the economy went pop. The 1907 Rich Mans Panic was taking place. Hence it was easy to forecast the events of 2007. We presented this information in advance at a private seminar prior to the event. The “Global Financial Crisis” is now history. Warn your children and grandchildren about 2057! Of Course there is a little more to this and that is what we are here for. However, sometimes there are gifts to be had! Here is the US market almost to perfection!!!So we distil macro events down to daily (and even hourly) cycles and are thus able to forecast probable areas of change. !!!!


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Cycle Forecasting cont.!So we distill macro events down to daily (and even hourly) cycles and are thus able to forecast probable time zones of change. !!The cycles are resolved into histograms and trend changes are possible where spikes occur. These histograms can forecast weeks months and years into the future. The cycles are resolved to different time frames and type sets as shown in the lower examples.!

!


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Cycle Forecasting cont.!We can then this several stages further by by adding different layers which also help us identify when the the major and minor cycles align. This is shown below.!

! !


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Cycle Forecasting cont.!Finally the last part of our procedure looks at seasonal probability. Many millions and indeed billions are made using seasonality and we take advantage of this. When our proprietary cycles tie up coincide with seasonal turns we have very high probability set ups. Conversely, if we know that a seasonal turn is coming up yet we do not have any cycles coinciding, then there is a high probability that this will fail. This improves accuracy remarkably. !!

!

!!!


Once again we take account of all this in our letter.!!We also look at daily statistical probabilities but these are less significant.

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THE MARKET TIMING REPORT - worldcyclesinstitute.com