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GSMA RCS Live Webinar Series, 13 May 2020
Nick Lane Chief Insight Analyst, Mobilesquared
@Mobilesquared
The Long-Term RCS Opportunity (2019-2028)
About MobilesquaredLeading analysts in Business Messaging
We provide definitive data and expert insight
We work with the leading mobile and tech companies across the mobile ecosystem, from regulators, mobile operators, service providers, brands, agencies, start-ups … to understand mobile and engagement. We do this through extensive research, deep analysis based on years of experience, and forecasting market opportunities based on actionable numbers.
Accurate data. No hype.
www.mobilesquared.co.uk @Mobilesquared
Mobilesquared updates its business messaging forecasts on a bi-annual basis. These are based on on-going research, discussions and interviews with the SMS
/ RCS / WhatsApp / Apple ecosystem. This presentation contains our latest forecasts, published between November 2019 – May 2020.
• Global A2P SMS Business Messaging Databook, Nov 2019• Global RCS Business Messaging Databook, Feb 2020• WhatsApp Business Messaging Databook, Apr 2020
• Long-Term Global RCS Forecasts Databook, 2018-2028, May 2020• What If Apple Did RCS Report, May 2020
Our next updates will be based on COVID-19 impact published from June 2020.
@Mobilesquared
COVID-19 RESEARCHgo to
mobilesquared.co.uk
Our global forecasts are based on granular projections covering the top 200 markets
@Mobilesquared
LONG-TERM FORECASTS
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
SHORT-TERM
FULL-TERM
LONG-TERM
Why the need for 10-year forecastsRCS MNO launches, by year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2018 projected rollouts June 2019 projected rollouts Feb 2020 projected rollouts
2018 projections
2019 projections
2020 projections
-
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
16,000,000,000
18,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
February 2020 update June 2019 update March 2019 original
Why the need for 10-year forecastsRBM spend declining before its even started ($)
Global RCS / RBM deployments, 2017-2028Ceiling reached 2025
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
RCS networks RBM networks
Global RCS / RBM users, 10-year forecastsShort-term / full-term / long-term outlook
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
5,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
RCS users RBM users
CAGR 64% / 135%
CAGR 19% / 26%
CAGR 6% / 6%
Global RBM total traffic, 2018-2028Short-term / full-term / long-term outlook
-
200,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,200,000,000,000
1,400,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
A2P Session A2P Event P2A Session P2A Event
CAGR 782%
CAGR 96%
CAGR 16%
Global RBM traffic, 2018-2028By type / initiation
-
200,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,200,000,000,000
1,400,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
A2P Session A2P Event P2A Session P2A Event
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
A2P P2A
RBM event / session RBM A2P / P2A
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Global
Global RBM spend, 10-year forecasts($)
CAGR 1,689%
CAGR 102%
CAGR 16%
Cumulative RBM spend, short term vs long term($)
-
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
Short-term (2018-2023) Long-term (2024-2028) -
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
Short-term (2018-2023) Long-term (2024-2028)
Cumulative A2P Cumulative P2A
12%
Cumulative RBM spend A2P / P2A
88%
Brands to spend $120.88 billion on RBM
84%
78%
$106.24 BILLION
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
SHORT-TERM
FULL-TERM
LONG-TERM
$14.64 BILLION
$120.88 BILLION
RB
M SP
END
SHORT-TERM FORECASTS
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
SHORT-TERM
FULL-TERM
LONG-TERM
Global business messaging traffic, 2018-2023A2P SMS / RBM / WhatsApp Business
-
500,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,500,000,000,000
2,000,000,000,000
2,500,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
SMS RCS WhatsApp Business
Global business messaging traffic, 2018-2023A2P SMS / RBM / WhatsApp Business
-
500,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,500,000,000,000
2,000,000,000,000
2,500,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Total A2P traffic Total P2A traffic
Next-gen business messaging, 2018-2023Traffic
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
P2A A2P
-
50,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
250,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
350,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
450,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
A2P P2A
RBM traffic WhatsApp Business traffic
A2P P2ASMS
RBM
ABC
Total global business messaging spend 2018-2023($)
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Global RBM spend 2018-2023($)
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
SMS RCS WhatsApp Business
Global business messaging value chainA2P SMS / RBM / WhatsApp Business
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
MNO Aggregator WhatsApp Business
SHORT-TERM FORECASTS:WHAT IF APPLE DID RCS?
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
SHORT-TERM
FULL-TERM
LONG-TERM
Apple’s immediate impact Short-term impact on RCS users
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
2020 2021 2022 2023
Total Apple RCS users Total Android RCS users0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Year1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2020 2021 2022 2023
RCS P2P RCS A2P
Apple impact on total P2P RCS users
Apple uplift on total P2P / A2P users
Apple uplift from launch
Apple RCS 1st year uplift, top 30 markets($)
390%
171%138%
263%
-
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
2,019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Android RCS Apple RCS
Apple uplift on RBM spend($)
18%
48%
36%
32%
@Mobilesquared
To learn more about all-things business messaging please get in touch.
Impact of COVID-19 on business messaging released June 2020
Nick Lane, chief insight analyst
+44 (0) 1182 149 777 / +44 (0) 7976 057 052 / Skype: nick-lane1
mobilesquared.co.uk
